Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci

The effective population sizes of ancestral as well as modern species are important parameters in models of population genetics and human evolution. The commonly used method for estimating ancestral population sizes, based on counting mismatches between the species tree and the inferred gene trees, is highly biased as it ignores uncertainties in gene tree reconstruction. In this article, we develop a Bayes method for simultaneous estimation of the species divergence times and current and ancestral population sizes. The method uses DNA sequence data from multiple loci and extracts information about conflicts among gene tree topologies and coalescent times to estimate ancestral population sizes. The topology of the species tree is assumed known. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to integrate over uncertain gene trees and branch lengths (or coalescence times) at each locus as well as species divergence times. The method can handle any species tree and allows different numbers of sequences at different loci. We apply the method to published noncoding DNA sequences from the human and the great apes. There are strong correlations between posterior estimates of speciation times and ancestral population sizes. With the use of an informative prior for the human-chimpanzee divergence date, the population size of the common ancestor of the two species is estimated to be approximately 20,000, with a 95% credibility interval (8000, 40,000). Our estimates, however, are affected by model assumptions as well as data quality. We suggest that reliable estimates have yet to await more data and more realistic models.     

Ancestral Population Sizes and Species Divergence Times in the Primate Lineage on the Basis of Intron and BAC End Sequences

The effective sizes of ancestral populations and species divergence times of six primate species (humans, chimpanzees, gorillas, orangutans, and representatives of Old World monkeys and New World monkeys) are estimated by applying the two-species maximum likelihood (ML) method to intron sequences of 20 different loci. Examination of rate heterogeneity of nucleotide substitutions and intragenic recombination identifies five outrageous loci (ODC1, GHR, HBE, INS, and HBG). The estimated ancestral polymorphism ranges from 0.21 to 0.96% at major divergences in primate evolution. One exceptionally low polymorphism occurs when African and Asian apes diverged. However, taking into consideration the possible short generation times in primate ancestors, it is concluded that the ancestral population size in the primate lineage was no smaller than that of extant humans. Furthermore, under the assumption of 6 million years (myr) divergence between humans and chimpanzees, the divergence time of humans from gorillas, orangutans, Old World monkeys, and New World monkeys is estimated as 7.2, 18, 34, and 65 myr ago, respectively, which are generally older than traditional estimates. Beside the intron sequences, three other data sets of orthologous sequences are used between the human and the chimpanzee comparison. The ML application to these data sets including 58,156 random BAC end sequences (BES) shows that the nucleotide substitution rate is as low as 0.6–0.8 × 10^–9 per site per year and the extent of ancestral polymorphism is 0.33–0.51%. With such a low substitution rate and short generation time, the relatively high extent of polymorphism suggests a fairly large effective population size in the ancestral lineage common to humans and chimpanzees.[Reviewing Editor: Dr. Magnus Nordborg]     

Calibrating a molecular clock from phylogeographic data: moments and likelihood estimators

Abstract We present moments and likelihood methods that estimate a DNA substitution rate from a group of closely related sister species pairs separated at an assumed time, and we test these methods with simulations. The methods also estimate ancestral population size and can test whether there is a significant difference among the ancestral population sizes of the sister species pairs. Estimates presented in the literature often ignore the ancestral coalescent prior to speciation and therefore should be biased upward. The simulations show that both methods yield accurate estimates given sample sizes of five or more species pairs and that better likelihood estimates are obtained if there is no significant difference among ancestral population sizes. The model presented here indicates that the larger than expected variation found in multitaxa datasets can be explained by variation in the ancestral coalescence and the Poisson mutation process. In this context, observed variation can often be accounted for by variation in ancestral population sizes rather than invoking variation in other parameters, such as divergence time or mutation rate. The methods are applied to data from two groups of species pairs (sea urchins and Alpheus snapping shrimp) that are thought to have separated by the rise of Panama three million years ago.     

Speciational history of Australian grass finches (Poephila) inferred from thirty gene trees

Multilocus genealogical approaches are still uncommon in phylogeography and historical demography, fields which have been dominated by microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA, particularly for vertebrates. Using 30 newly developed anonymous nuclear loci, we estimated population divergence times and ancestral population sizes of three closely related species of Australian grass finches (Poephila) distributed across two barriers in northern Australia. We verified that substitution rates were generally constant both among lineages and among loci, and that intralocus recombination was uncommon in our dataset, thereby satisfying two assumptions of our multilocus analysis. The reconstructed gene trees exhibited all three possible tree topologies and displayed considerable variation in coalescent times, yet this information provided the raw data for maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation of population divergence times and ancestral population sizes. Estimates of these parameters were in close agreement with each other regardless of statistical approach and our Bayesian estimates were robust to prior assumptions. Our results suggest that black-throated finches (Poephila cincta) diverged from long-tailed finches (P. acuticauda and P. hecki) across the Carpentarian Barrier in northeastern Australia around 0.6 million years ago (mya), and that P. acuticauda diverged from P. hecki across the Kimberley Plateau-Arnhem Land Barrier in northwestern Australia approximately 0.3 mya. Bayesian 95% credibility intervals around these estimates strongly support Pleistocene timing for both speciation events, despite the fact that many gene divergences across the Carpentarian region clearly predated the Pleistocene. Estimates of ancestral effective population sizes for the basal ancestor and long-tailed finch ancestor were large (about 521,000 and about 384,000, respectively). Although the errors around the population size parameter estimates are considerable, they are the first for birds taking into account multiple sources of variance.     

Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes

Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.     

Estimation of hominoid ancestral population sizes under bayesian coalescent models incorporating mutation rate variation and sequencing errors

Estimation of population parameters for the common ancestors of humans and the great apes is important in understanding our evolutionary history. In particular, inference of population size for the human-chimpanzee common ancestor may shed light on the process by which the 2 species separated and on whether the human population experienced a severe size reduction in its early evolutionary history. In this study, the Bayesian method of ancestral inference of Rannala and Yang (2003. Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci. Genetics. 164:1645-1656) was extended to accommodate variable mutation rates among loci and random species-specific sequencing errors. The model was applied to analyze a genome-wide data set of approximately 15,000 neutral loci (7.4 Mb) aligned for human, chimpanzee, gorilla, orangutan, and macaque. We obtained robust and precise estimates for effective population sizes along the hominoid lineage extending back approximately 30 Myr to the cercopithecoid divergence. The results showed that ancestral populations were 5-10 times larger than modern humans along the entire hominoid lineage. The estimates were robust to the priors used and to model assumptions about recombination. The unusually low X chromosome divergence between human and chimpanzee could not be explained by variation in the male mutation bias or by current models of hybridization and introgression. Instead, our parameter estimates were consistent with a simple instantaneous process for human-chimpanzee speciation but showed a major reduction in X chromosome effective population size peculiar to the human-chimpanzee common ancestor, possibly due to selective sweeps on the X prior to separation of the 2 species.     

Genomic divergences between humans and other hominoids and the effective population size of the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees

To study the genomic divergences among hominoids and to estimate the effective population size of the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees, we selected 53 autosomal intergenic nonrepetitive DNA segments from the human genome and sequenced them in a human, a chimpanzee, a gorilla, and an orangutan. The average sequence divergence was only 1.24% +/- 0.07% for the human-chimpanzee pair, 1.62% +/- 0.08% for the human-gorilla pair, and 1.63% +/- 0.08% for the chimpanzee-gorilla pair. These estimates, which were confirmed by additional data from GenBank, are substantially lower than previous ones, which included repetitive sequences and might have been based on less-accurate sequence data. The average sequence divergences between orangutans and humans, chimpanzees, and gorillas were 3.08% +/- 0.11%, 3.12% +/- 0.11%, and 3.09% +/- 0.11%, respectively, which also are substantially lower than previous estimates. The sequence divergences in other regions between hominoids were estimated from extensive data in GenBank and the literature, and Alus showed the highest divergence, followed in order by Y-linked noncoding regions, pseudogenes, autosomal intergenic regions, X-linked noncoding regions, synonymous sites, introns, and nonsynonymous sites. The neighbor-joining tree derived from the concatenated sequence of the 53 segments--24,234 bp in length--supports the Homo-Pan clade with a 100% bootstrap value. However, when each segment is analyzed separately, 22 of the 53 segments (approximately 42%) give a tree that is incongruent with the species tree, suggesting a large effective population size (N(e)) of the common ancestor of Homo and Pan. Indeed, a parsimony analysis of the 53 segments and 37 protein-coding genes leads to an estimate of N(e) = 52,000 to 96,000. As this estimate is 5 to 9 times larger than the long-term effective population size of humans (approximately 10,000) estimated from various genetic polymorphism data, the human lineage apparently had experienced a large reduction in effective population size after its separation from the chimpanzee lineage. Our analysis assumes a molecular clock, which is in fact supported by the sequence data used. Taking the orangutan speciation date as 12 to 16 million years ago, we obtain an estimate of 4.6 to 6.2 million years for the Homo-Pan divergence and an estimate of 6.2 to 8.4 million years for the gorilla speciation date, suggesting that the gorilla lineage branched off 1.6 to 2.2 million years earlier than did the human-chimpanzee divergence.     

A simple method of removing the effect of a bottleneck and unequal population sizes on pairwise genetic distances

In this paper, we derive the expectation of two popular genetic distances under a model of pure population fission allowing for unequal population sizes. Under the model, we show that conventional genetic distances are not proportional to the divergence time and generally overestimate it due to unequal genetic drift and to a bottleneck effect at the divergence time. This bias cannot be totally removed even if the present population sizes are known. Instead, we present a method to estimate the divergence times between populations which is based on the average number of nucleotide differences within and between populations. The method simultaneously estimates the divergence time, the ancestral population size and the relative sizes of the derived populations. A simulation study revealed that this method is essentially unbiased and that it leads to better estimates than traditional approaches for a very wide range of parameter values. Simulations also indicated that moderate population growth after divergence has little effect on the estimates of all three estimated parameters. An application of our method to a comparison of humans and chimpanzee mitochondrial DNA diversity revealed that common chimpanzees have a significantly larger female population size than humans.     

On the estimation of ancestral population sizes of modern humans

The theory developed by Takahata and colleagues for estimating the effective population size of ancestral species using homologous sequences from closely related extant species was extended to take account of variation of evolutionary rates among loci. Nuclear sequence data related to the evolution of modern humans were reanalysed and computer simulations were performed to examine the effect of rate variation on estimation of ancestral population sizes. It is found that the among-locus rate variation does not have a significant effect on estimation of the current population size when sequences from multiple loci are sampled from the same species, but does have a significant effect on estimation of the ancestral population size using sequences from different species. The effects of ancestral population size, species divergence time and among-locus rate variation are found to be highly correlated, and to achieve reliable estimates of the ancestral population size, effects of the other two factors should be estimated independently.     

Estimating ancestral population sizes and divergence times

This article presents a new method for jointly estimating species divergence times and ancestral population sizes. The method improves on previous ones by explicitly incorporating intragenic recombination, by utilizing orthologous sequence data from closely related species, and by using a maximum-likelihood framework. The latter allows for efficient use of the available information and provides a way of assessing how much confidence we should place in the estimates. I apply the method to recently collected intergenic sequence data from humans and the great apes. The results suggest that the human-chimpanzee ancestral population size was four to seven times larger than the current human effective population size and that the current human effective population size is slightly >10,000. These estimates are similar to previous ones, and they appear relatively insensitive to assumptions about the recombination rates or mutation rates across loci.     

Perspective: gene divergence, population divergence, and the variance in coalescence time in phylogeographic studies

Molecular methods as applied to the biogeography of single species (phylogeography) or multiple codistributed species (comparative phylogeography) have been productively and extensively used to elucidate common historical features in the diversification of the Earth's biota. However, only recently have methods for estimating population divergence times or their confidence limits while taking into account the critical effects of genetic polymorphism in ancestral species become available, and earlier methods for doing so are underutilized. We review models that address the crucial distinction between the gene divergence, the parameter that is typically recovered in molecular phylogeographic studies, and the population divergence, which is in most cases the parameter of interest and will almost always postdate the gene divergence. Assuming that population sizes of ancestral species are distributed similarly to those of extant species, we show that phylogeographic studies in vertebrates suggest that divergence of alleles in ancestral species can comprise from less than 10% to over 50% of the total divergence between sister species, suggesting that the problem of ancestral polymorphism in dating population divergence can be substantial. The variance in the number of substitutions (among loci for a given species or among species for a given gene) resulting from the stochastic nature of DNA change is generally smaller than the variance due to substitutions along allelic lines whose coalescence times vary due to genetic drift in the ancestral population. Whereas the former variance can be reduced by further DNA sequencing at a single locus, the latter cannot. Contrary to phylogeographic intuition, dating population divergence times when allelic lines have achieved reciprocal monophyly is in some ways more challenging than when allelic lines have not achieved monophyly, because in the former case critical data on ancestral population size provided by residual ancestral polymorphism is lost. In the former case differences in coalescence time between species pairs can in principle be explained entirely by differences in ancestral population size without resorting to explanations involving differences in divergence time. Furthermore, the confidence limits on population divergence times are severely underestimated when those for number of substitutions per site in the DNA sequences examined are used as a proxy. This uncertainty highlights the importance of multilocus data in estimating population divergence times; multilocus data can in principle distinguish differences in coalescence time (T) resulting from differences in population divergence time and differences in T due to differences in ancestral population sizes and will reduce the confidence limits on the estimates. We analyze the contribution of ancestral population size (theta) to T and the effect of uncertainty in theta on estimates of population divergence (tau) for single loci under reciprocal monophyly using a simple Bayesian extension of Takahata and Satta's and Yang's recent coalescent methods. The confidence limits on tau decrease when the range over which ancestral population size theta is assumed to be distributed decreases and when tau increases; they generally exclude zero when tau/(4Ne) > 1. We also apply a maximum-likelihood method to several single and multilocus data sets. With multilocus data, the criterion for excluding tau = 0 is roughly that l tau/(4Ne) > 1, where l is the number of loci. Our analyses corroborate recent suggestions that increasing the number of loci is critical to decreasing the uncertainty in estimates of population divergence time.     

Substitution rate variation among sites in mitochondrial hypervariable region I of humans and chimpanzees

Mitochondrial D-loop hypervariable region I (HVI) sequences are widely used in human molecular evolutionary studies, and therefore accurate assessment of rate heterogeneity among sites is essential. We used the maximum-likelihood method to estimate the gamma shape parameter alpha for variable substitution rates among sites for HVI from humans and chimpanzees to provide estimates for future studies. The complete data of 839 humans and 224 chimpanzees, as well as many subsets of these data, were analyzed to examine the effect of sequence sampling. The effects of the genealogical tree and the nucleotide substitution model were also examined. The transition/transversion rate ratio (kappa) is estimated to be about 25, although much larger and biased estimates were also obtained from small data sets at low divergences. Estimates of alpha were 0.28-0.39 for human data sets of different sizes and 0.20-0.39 for data sets including different chimpanzee subspecies. The combined data set of both species gave estimates of 0.42-0.45. While all those estimates suggest highly variable substitution rates among sites, smaller samples tend to give smaller estimates of alpha. Possible causes for this pattern were examined, such as biases in the estimation procedure and shifts in the rate distribution along certain lineages. Computer simulations suggest that the estimation procedure is quite reliable for large trees but can be biased for small samples at low divergences. Thus, an alpha of 0.4 appears suitable for both humans and chimpanzees. Estimates of alpha can be affected by the nucleotide sites included in the data, the overall tree length (the amount of sequence divergence), the number of rate classes used for the estimation, and to a lesser extent, the included sequences. The genealogical tree, the substitution model, and demographic processes such as population expansion do not have much effect.     

Multilocus phylogenetics of a rapid radiation in the genus Thomomys (Rodentia: Geomyidae)

Species complexes undergoing rapid radiation present a challenge in molecular systematics because of the possibility that ancestral polymorphism is retained in component gene trees. Coalescent theory has demonstrated that gene trees often fail to match lineage trees when taxon divergence times are less than the ancestral effective population sizes. Suggestions to increase the number of loci and the number of individuals per taxon have been proposed; however, phylogenetic methods to adequately analyze these data in a coalescent framework are scarce. We compare two approaches to estimating lineage (species) trees using multiple individuals and multiple loci: the commonly used partitioned Bayesian analysis of concatenated sequences and a modification of a newly developed hierarchical Bayesian method (BEST) that simultaneously estimates gene trees and species trees from multilocus data. We test these approaches on a phylogeny of rapidly radiating species wherein divergence times are likely to be smaller than effective population sizes, and incomplete lineage sorting is known, in the rodent genus, Thomomys. We use seven independent noncoding nuclear sequence loci (total approximately 4300 bp) and between 1 and 12 individuals per taxon to construct a phylogenetic hypothesis for eight Thomomys species. The majority-rule consensus tree from the partitioned concatenated analysis included 14 strongly supported bipartitions, corroborating monophyletic species status of five of the eight named species. The BEST tree strongly supported only the split between the two subgenera and showed very low support for any other clade. Comparison of both lineage trees to individual gene trees revealed that the concatenation method appears to ignore conflicting signals among gene trees, whereas the BEST tree considers conflicting signals and downweights support for those nodes. Bayes factor analysis of posterior tree distributions from both analyses strongly favor the model underlying the BEST analysis. This comparison underscores the risks of overreliance on results from concatenation, and ignoring the properties of coalescence, especially in cases of recent, rapid radiations.     

Complexity of the simplest species tree problem

The multispecies coalescent model provides a natural framework for species tree estimation accounting for gene-tree conflicts. Although a number of species tree methods under the multispecies coalescent have been suggested and evaluated using simulation, their statistical properties remain poorly understood. Here, we use mathematical analysis aided by computer simulation to examine the identifiability, consistency, and efficiency of different species tree methods in the case of three species and three sequences under the molecular clock. We consider four major species-tree methods including concatenation, two-step, independent-sites maximum likelihood, and maximum likelihood. We develop approximations that predict that the probit transform of the species tree estimation error decreases linearly with the square root of the number of loci. Even in this simplest case, major differences exist among the methods. Full-likelihood methods are considerably more efficient than summary methods such as concatenation and two-step. They also provide estimates of important parameters such as species divergence times and ancestral population sizes,whereas these parameters are not identifiable by summary methods. Our results highlight the need to improve the statistical efficiency of summary methods and the computational efficiency of full likelihood methods of species tree estimation.     

Species trees from gene trees: reconstructing Bayesian posterior distributions of a species phylogeny using estimated gene tree distributions

The desire to infer the evolutionary history of a group of species should be more viable now that a considerable amount of multilocus molecular data is available. However, the current molecular phylogenetic paradigm still reconstructs gene trees to represent the species tree. Further, commonly used methods of combining data, such as the concatenation method, are known to be inconsistent in some circumstances. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the phylogeny of a group of species using multiple estimated gene tree distributions, such as those that arise in a Bayesian analysis of DNA sequence data. Our model employs substitution models used in traditional phylogenetics but also uses coalescent theory to explain genealogical signals from species trees to gene trees and from gene trees to sequence data, thereby forming a complete stochastic model to estimate gene trees, species trees, ancestral population sizes, and species divergence times simultaneously. Our model is founded on the assumption that gene trees, even of unlinked loci, are correlated due to being derived from a single species tree and therefore should be estimated jointly. We apply the method to two multilocus data sets of DNA sequences. The estimates of the species tree topology and divergence times appear to be robust to the prior of the population size, whereas the estimates of effective population sizes are sensitive to the prior used in the analysis. These analyses also suggest that the model is superior to the concatenation method in fitting these data sets and thus provides a more realistic assessment of the variability in the distribution of the species tree that may have produced the molecular information at hand. Future improvements of our model and algorithm should include consideration of other factors that can cause discordance of gene trees and species trees, such as horizontal transfer or gene duplication.     

An autosomal analysis gives no genetic evidence for complex speciation of humans and chimpanzees

There have been conflicting arguments as to what happened in the human-chimpanzee speciation event. Patterson et al. (2006, Genetic evidence for complex speciation of humans and chimpanzees. Nature 441:1103-1108) proposed a hypothesis that the human-chimpanzee speciation event involved a complicated demographic process: that is, the ancestral lineages of humans and chimpanzees experienced temporal isolation followed by a hybridization event. This hypothesis stemmed from two major observations: a wide range of human-chimpanzee nucleotide divergence across the autosomal genome and very low divergence in the X chromosome. In contrast, Innan and Watanabe (2006, The effect of gene flow on the coalescent time in the human-chimpanzee ancestral population. Mol Biol Evol. 23:1040-1047) demonstrated that the null model of instantaneous speciation fits the genome-wide divergence data for the two species better than alternative models involving partial isolation and migration. To reconcile these two conflicting reports, we first reexamined the analysis of autosomal data by Patterson et al. (2006). By providing a theoretical framework for their analysis, we demonstrated that their observation is what is theoretically expected under the null model of instantaneous speciation with a large ancestral population. Our analysis indicated that the observed wide range of autosomal divergence is simply due to the coalescent process in the large ancestral population of the two species. To further verify this, we developed a maximum likelihood function to detect evidence of hybridization in genome-wide divergence data. Again, the null model with no hybridization best fits the data. We conclude that the simplest speciation model with instantaneous split adequately describes the human-chimpanzee speciation event, and there is no strong reason to involve complicated factors in explaining the autosomal data.     

Divergence population genetics of chimpanzees

The divergence of two subspecies of common chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes and P. t. verus) and the bonobo (P. paniscus) was studied using a recently developed method for analyzing population divergence. Under the isolation with migration model, the posterior probability distributions of divergence time, migration rates, and effective population sizes were estimated for large multilocus DNA sequence data sets drawn from the literature. The bonobo and the common chimpanzee are estimated to have diverged approximately 0.86 to 0.89 MYA, and the divergence of the two common chimpanzee subspecies is estimated to have occurred 0.42 MYA. P. t. troglodytes appears to have had a larger effective population size (22,400 to 27,900) compared with P. paniscus, P. t. verus, and the ancestral populations of these species. No evidence of gene flow was found in the comparisons involving P. paniscus; however a clear signal of unidirectional gene flow was found from P. t. verus to P. t. troglodytes (2Nm = 0.51).     

Strong Selective Sweeps on the X Chromosome in the Human-Chimpanzee Ancestor Explain Its Low Divergence

The human and chimpanzee X chromosomes are less divergent than expected based on autosomal divergence. We study incomplete lineage sorting patterns between humans, chimpanzees and gorillas to show that this low divergence can be entirely explained by megabase-sized regions comprising one-third of the X chromosome, where polymorphism in the human-chimpanzee ancestral species was severely reduced. We show that background selection can explain at most 10% of this reduction of diversity in the ancestor. Instead, we show that several strong selective sweeps in the ancestral species can explain it. We also report evidence of population specific sweeps in extant humans that overlap the regions of low diversity in the ancestral species. These regions further correspond to chromosomal sections shown to be devoid of Neanderthal introgression into modern humans. This suggests that the same X-linked regions that undergo selective sweeps are among the first to form reproductive barriers between diverging species. We hypothesize that meiotic drive is the underlying mechanism causing these two observations.     

QUANTIFYING THE PLEISTOCENE HISTORY OF THE OAK GALL PARASITOID CECIDOSTIBA FUNGOSA USING TWENTY INTRON LOCI

The longitudinal spread of temperate organisms into refugial populations in Southern Europe is generally assumed to predate the last interglacial. However, few studies have attempted to quantify this process in nonmodel organisms using explicit models and multilocus data. We used sequence data for 20 intron‐spanning loci (12 kb per individual) to resolve the history of refugial populations of a widespread western Palaearctic oak gall parasitoid Cecidostiba fungosa (Pteromalidae). Using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods we assess alternative population tree topologies and estimate divergence times and ancestral population sizes under a model of divergence between three refugia (Middle East, Balkans and Iberia). Both methods support an “Out of the East” history for C. fungosa, matching the pattern previously inferred for their gallwasp hosts. However, coalescent‐based estimates of the ages of population divides are much more recent (coinciding with the Eemian interglacial) than nodal ages of single gene trees for C. fungosa and other species. We also find that increasing the sample size from one haploid sequence per refugial population to three only marginally improves parameter estimates. Our results suggest that there is significant information in the minimal samples currently analyzable with maximum likelihood methods, and that similar methods could be applied to multiple species to test alternative models of assemblage evolution.     

Demographic Divergence History of Pied Flycatcher and Collared Flycatcher Inferred from Whole-Genome Re-sequencing Data

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000–80,000) and census sizes (5–50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species.