Disease Surveillance on Complex Social Networks

As infectious disease surveillance systems expand to include digital, crowd-sourced, and social network data, public health agencies are gaining unprecedented access to high-resolution data and have an opportunity to selectively monitor informative individuals. Contact networks, which are the webs of interaction through which diseases spread, determine whether and when individuals become infected, and thus who might serve as early and accurate surveillance sensors. Here, we evaluate three strategies for selecting sensors—sampling the most connected, random, and friends of random individuals—in three complex social networks—a simple scale-free network, an empirical Venezuelan college student network, and an empirical Montreal wireless hotspot usage network. Across five different surveillance goals—early and accurate detection of epidemic emergence and peak, and general situational awareness—we find that the optimal choice of sensors depends on the public health goal, the underlying network and the reproduction number of the disease (R₀). For diseases with a low R₀, the most connected individuals provide the earliest and most accurate information about both the onset and peak of an outbreak. However, identifying network hubs is often impractical, and they can be misleading if monitored for general situational awareness, if the underlying network has significant community structure, or if R₀ is high or unknown. Taking a theoretical approach, we also derive the optimal surveillance system for early outbreak detection but find that real-world identification of such sensors would be nearly impossible. By contrast, the friends-of-random strategy offers a more practical and robust alternative. It can be readily implemented without prior knowledge of the network, and by identifying sensors with higher than average, but not the highest, epidemiological risk, it provides reasonably early and accurate information.     

Sampling Considerations for Disease Surveillance in Wildlife Populations

Abstract Disease surveillance in wildlife populations involves detecting the presence of a disease, characterizing its prevalence and spread, and subsequent monitoring. A probability sample of animals selected from the population and corresponding estimators of disease prevalence and detection provide estimates with quantifiable statistical properties, but this approach is rarely used. Although wildlife scientists often assume probability sampling and random disease distributions to calculate sample sizes, convenience samples (i.e., samples of readily available animals) are typically used, and disease distributions are rarely random. We demonstrate how landscape-based simulation can be used to explore properties of estimators from convenience samples in relation to probability samples. We used simulation methods to model what is known about the habitat preferences of the wildlife population, the disease distribution, and the potential biases of the convenience-sample approach. Using chronic wasting disease in free-ranging deer (Odocoileus virginianus) as a simple illustration, we show that using probability sample designs with appropriate estimators provides unbiased surveillance parameter estimates but that the selection bias and coverage errors associated with convenience samples can lead to biased and misleading results. We also suggest practical alternatives to convenience samples that mix probability and convenience sampling. For example, a sample of land areas can be selected using a probability design that oversamples areas with larger animal populations, followed by harvesting of individual animals within sampled areas using a convenience sampling method.     

Epidemiological Concepts Regarding Disease Monitoring and Surveillance

Definitions of epidemiological concepts regarding disease monitoring and surveillance can be found in textbooks on veterinary epidemiology. This paper gives a review of how the concepts: monitoring, surveillance, and disease control strategies are defined. Monitoring and surveillance systems (MO&SS) involve measurements of disease occurrence, and the design of the monitoring determines which types of disease occurrence measures can be applied. However, the knowledge of the performance of diagnostic tests (sensitivity and specificity) is essential to estimate the true occurrence of the disease. The terms, disease control programme (DCP) or disease eradication programme (DEP), are defined, and the steps of DCP/DEP are described to illustrate that they are a process rather than a static MO&SS.

     

Epidemiological Concepts Regarding Disease Monitoring and Surveillance

Definitions of epidemiological concepts regarding disease monitoring and surveillance can be found in textbooks on veterinary epidemiology. This paper gives a review of how the concepts: monitoring, surveillance, and disease control strategies are defined. Monitoring and surveillance systems (MO&SS) involve measurements of disease occurrence, and the design of the monitoring determines which types of disease occurrence measures can be applied. However, the knowledge of the performance of diagnostic tests (sensitivity and specificity) is essential to estimate the true occurrence of the disease. The terms, disease control programme (DCP) or disease eradication programme (DEP), are defined, and the steps of DCP/DEP are described to illustrate that they are a process rather than a static MO&SS.     

Rotavirus Surveillance at a WHO-Coordinated Invasive Bacterial Disease Surveillance Site in Bangladesh: A Feasibility Study to Integrate Two Surveillance Systems

The World Health Organization (WHO) currently coordinates rotavirus diarrhea and invasive bacterial disease (IBD) surveillance at 178 sentinel sites in 60 countries. However, only 78 sites participate in both surveillance systems using a common sentinel site. Here, we explored the feasibility of extending a WHO-IBD surveillance platform to generate data on the burden of rotaviral diarrhea and its epidemiological characteristics to prepare the countries to measure the impact of rotaviral vaccine. A six-month (July to December, 2012) surveillance, managed by IBD team, collected stool samples and clinical data from under-five children with acute watery diarrhea at an IBD sentinel site. Samples were tested for rotavirus antigen by ELISA and genotyped by PCR at the regional reference laboratory (RRL). Specimens were collected from 79% (n = 297) of eligible cases (n = 375); 100% of which were tested for rotavirus by ELISA and 54% (159/297) of them were positive. At RRL, all the cases were confirmed by PCR and genotyped (99%; 158/159). The typing results revealed the predominance of G12 (40%; 64/159) genotype, followed by G1 (31%; 50/159) and G9 (19%; 31/159). All in all, this exploratory surveillance collected the desired demographic and epidemiological data and achieved almost all the benchmark indicators of WHO, starting from enrollment number to quality assurance through a number of case detection, collection, and testing of specimens and genotyping of strains at RRL. The success of this WHO-IBD site in achieving these benchmark indicators of WHO can be used by WHO as a proof-of-concept for considering integration of rotavirus surveillance with WHO-IBD platforms, specifically in countries with well performing IBD site and no ongoing rotavirus surveillance.     

Population-Based Surveillance for Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Homeless Adults in Toronto

Background

Identification of high-risk populations for serious infection due to S. pneumoniae will permit appropriately targeted prevention programs.

Methods

We conducted prospective, population-based surveillance for invasive pneumococcal disease and laboratory confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia in homeless adults in Toronto, a Canadian city with a total population of 2.5 M, from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2006.

Results

We identified 69 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease and 27 cases of laboratory confirmed pneumococcal pneumonia in an estimated population of 5050 homeless adults. The incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in homeless adults was 273 infections per 100,000 persons per year, compared to 9 per 100,000 persons per year in the general adult population. Homeless persons with invasive pneumococcal disease were younger than other adults (median age 46 years vs 67 years, P<.001), and more likely than other adults to be smokers (95% vs. 31%, P<.001), to abuse alcohol (62% vs 15%, P<.001), and to use intravenous drugs (42% vs 4%, P<.001). Relative to age matched controls, they were more likely to have underlying lung disease (12/69, 17% vs 17/272, 6%, P = .006), but not more likely to be HIV infected (17/69, 25% vs 58/282, 21%, P = .73). The proportion of patients with recurrent disease was five fold higher for homeless than other adults (7/58, 12% vs. 24/943, 2.5%, P<.001). In homeless adults, 28 (32%) of pneumococcal isolates were of serotypes included in the 7-valent conjugate vaccine, 42 (48%) of serotypes included in the 13-valent conjugate vaccine, and 72 (83%) of serotypes included in the 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine. Although no outbreaks of disease were identified in shelters, there was evidence of clustering of serotypes suggestive of transmission of pathogenic strains within the homeless population.

Conclusions

Homeless persons are at high risk of serious pneumococcal infection. Vaccination, physical structure changes or other program to reduce transmission in shelters, harm reduction programs to reduce rates of smoking, alcohol abuse and infection with bloodborne pathogens, and improved treatment programs for HIV infection may all be effective in reducing the risk.     

Metabolic Syndrome and Coronary Artery Disease in Ossabaw Compared with Yucatan Swine

Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a compilation of associated risk factors, increases the risk of type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD, atherosclerosis), which can progress to the point of artery occlusion. Stents are the primary interventional treatment for occlusive CAD, and patients with MetS and hyperinsulinemia have increased restenosis. Because of its thrifty genotype, the Ossabaw pig is a model of MetS. We tested the hypothesis that, when fed high-fat diet, Ossabaw swine develop more features of MetS, greater native CAD, and greater stent-induced CAD than do Yucatan swine. Animals of each breed were divided randomly into 2 groups and fed 2 different calorie-matched diets for 40 wk: control diet (C) and high-fat, high-cholesterol atherogenic diet (H). A bare metal stent was placed in the circumflex artery, and pigs were allowed to recover for 3 wk. Characteristics of MetS, macrovascular and microvascular CAD, in-stent stenosis, and Ca²⁺ signaling in coronary smooth muscle cells were evaluated. MetS characteristics including, obesity, glucose intolerance, hyperinsulinemia, and elevated arterial pressure were elevated in Ossabaw swine compared to Yucatan swine. Ossabaw swine with MetS had more extensive and diffuse native CAD and in-stent stenosis and impaired coronary blood flow regulation compared with Yucatan. In-stent atherosclerotic lesions in Ossabaw coronary arteries were less fibrous and more cellular. Coronary smooth muscle cells from Ossabaw had impaired Ca²⁺ efflux and intracellular sequestration versus cells from Yucatan swine. Therefore, Ossabaw swine are a superior model of MetS, subsequent CAD, and cellular Ca²⁺ signaling defects, whereas Yucatan swine are leaner and relatively resistant to MetS and CAD.Abbreviations: CAD, coronary artery disease; CSM, coronary smooth muscle; IVGTT, intravenous glucose tolerance test; MetS, metabolic syndrome; SERCA, sarco–endoplasmic reticulum Ca²⁺ ATPase; ET1, endothelin 1; SOCE, store-operated Ca²⁺ entryAtherosclerotic coronary artery disease (CAD) is increased at least 2-fold in patients with metabolic syndrome (MetS)²⁷ and is accompanied by marked microvascular dysfunction that further impairs coronary blood flow.¹⁰ MetS generally is diagnosed by the presence of 3 or more of the following conditions: obesity, insulin resistance, glucose intolerance, dyslipidemia, and hypertension.^17,28 There is strong support for the role of the hyperinsulinemia component of MetS in increased restenosis after percutaneous coronary interventions.^74,75,84,85 Further, our group has shown that severe coronary microvascular dysfunction occurs in MetS.⁵ Because MetS (so-called ‘prediabetes’) affects as much as 27% of the United States population, is increasing dramatically in prevalence,⁹⁴ and can progress to type 2 diabetes, there is great need for basic research using animal models that accurately mimic MetS and the accompanying CAD. Clearly, there is need for study of MetS-induced CAD and in-stent stenosis and the underlying cellular and molecular mechanisms.Mice, rats, and swine are known to recapitulate MetS;^{3,12,36,60,71,72} however, none of these models fully reproduce the combined symptoms of MetS and CAD. Further, transgenic mouse models are simply not adequate for coronary vascular interventions using stents identical to those used in humans,^{18,23,38,55,57,79,83,86} a step that is essential for translation to the clinic. Yucatan and domestic swine are commonly used large animal models for study of cardiovascular disease due to their ability to mimic the neointimal formation and thrombosis observed in humans.⁸⁶ For example, several laboratories have produced severe CAD in swine,^{8,24,51,61,62,68,91} but through toxin-induced pancreatic β-cell ablation and feeding of an atherogenic diet, rather than as a natural development subsequent to MetS or diabetes. Currently, there is a paucity of large animal models that reproduce MetS and CAD.³Research on the obesity-prone Ossabaw miniature swine⁵⁹ clearly indicates that these animals develop MetS and cardiovascular disease when fed a high-calorie atherogenic diet,^{4,5,9,16,19,42,50,52,83,92} Female Ossabaw swine on this type of diet nearly doubled their percentage body fat in only 9 wk, showed insulin resistance, impaired glucose tolerance, dyslipidemia (profound increase in the ratio of low-density to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, hypertriglyceridemia), hypertension, and early coronary atherosclerosis.¹⁶ These data contrast with those from male Yucatan miniature pigs, which did not develop MetS even after 20 wk on a comparable excess calorie atherogenic diet.^8,68,95 Yucatan swine do not develop MetS through diet manipulation, unlike Ossabaw swine, which consistently recapitulate all MetS characteristics. However, important differences in study design have not allowed direct comparison between Yucatan and Ossabaw swine.Cytosolic Ca²⁺ signaling is involved in ‘phenotypic modulation’ of coronary smooth muscle (CSM), as characterized by proliferation and migration in several in vitro cell culture models^33,35,89,90 and in vivo rodent models of the peripheral circulation (for example, reference 51). The Yucatan swine model of diabetic dyslipidemia shows altered Ca²⁺ extrusion,⁹⁶ Ca²⁺ sequestration by the sarcoplasmic reticulum,^32,34,98 and Ca²⁺ influx through voltage-gated Ca²⁺ channels.⁹⁸ Currently, Ca²⁺ signaling has not been compared directly between MetS Ossabaw and Yucatan swine CSM. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to test the hypothesis that compared with Yucatan swine on calorie-matched standard chow (for example, Yucatan maintenance diet^8,95) and atherogenic diets, Ossabaw swine have a greater propensity to MetS and CAD with impaired coronary microvascular dysfunction and Ca²⁺ handling in CSM.     

Miniature Swine as a Clinically Relevant Model of Graft-Versus-Host Disease

Miniature swine provide a preclinical model of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for studies of graft-versus-host disease. HCT between MHC-matched or ‑mismatched pigs can be performed to mimic clinical scenarios with outcomes that closely resemble those observed in human HCT recipients. With myeloablative conditioning, HCT across MHC barriers is typically fatal, with pigs developing severe (grade III or IV) GVHD involving the gastrointestinal tract, liver, and skin. Unlike rodent models, miniature swine provide an opportunity to perform extended longitudinal studies on individual animals, because multiple tissue biopsies can be harvested without the need for euthanasia. In addition, we have developed a swine GVHD scoring system that parallels that used in the human clinical setting. Given the similarities of GVHD in pigs and humans, we hope that the use of this scoring system facilitates clinical and scientific discourse between the laboratory and the clinic. We anticipate that results of swine studies will support the development of new strategies to improve the identification and treatment of GVHD in clinical HCT scenarios.Abbreviations: BMT, bone marrow transplantation; GVHD, graft-versus-host disease; GVL, graft-versus-leukemia; HCT, hematopoietic cell transplantation; TBI, total-body irradiation     

Prion疾病疫苗研究策略

朊病毒病是一类侵袭人类及多种动物中枢神经系统的致死性退行性脑病,目前缺乏有效的预防和治疗方法。朊病毒病的重组蛋白亚单位疫苗、DNA疫苗、合成肽疫苗、病毒样颗粒疫苗、树突状细胞疫苗、黏膜免疫疫苗等已取得一定进展,但现有的免疫策略仅能部分克服免疫耐受,诱导较低或中等滴度的抗体,对PrPSc感染动物模型只能提供部分保护,Prion疫苗研究任重而道远。