An Environmental Data Set for Vector-Borne Disease Modeling and Epidemiology

Understanding the environmental conditions of disease transmission is important in the study of vector-borne diseases. Low- and middle-income countries bear a significant portion of the disease burden; but data about weather conditions in those countries can be sparse and difficult to reconstruct. Here, we describe methods to assemble high-resolution gridded time series data sets of air temperature, relative humidity, land temperature, and rainfall for such areas; and we test these methods on the island of Madagascar. Air temperature and relative humidity were constructed using statistical interpolation of weather station measurements; the resulting median 95^th percentile absolute errors were 2.75°C and 16.6%. Missing pixels from the MODIS11 remote sensing land temperature product were estimated using Fourier decomposition and time-series analysis; thus providing an alternative to the 8-day and 30-day aggregated products. The RFE 2.0 remote sensing rainfall estimator was characterized by comparing it with multiple interpolated rainfall products, and we observed significant differences in temporal and spatial heterogeneity relevant to vector-borne disease modeling.     

Control of Vector-Borne Disease by Genetic Manipulation of Insect Populations: Technological Requirements and Research Priorities

The possibility of controlling vector-borne disease through the development and release of transgenic insect vectors has recently gained popular support and is being actively pursued by a number of research laboratories around the world. Several technical problems must be solved before such a strategy could be implemented: genes encoding refractory traits (traits that render the insect unable to transmit the pathogen) must be identified, a transformation system for important vector species has to be developed, and a strategy to spread the refractory trait into natural vector populations must be designed. Recent advances in this field of research make it seem likely that this technology will be available in the near future.
In this paper we review recent progress in this area as well as argue that care should be taken in selecting the most appropriate disease system with which to first attempt this form of intervention. Much attention is currently being given to the application of this technology to the control of malaria, transmitted by Anopheles gambiae in Africa. While malaria is undoubtedly the most important vector-borne disease in the world and its control should remain an important goal, we maintain that the complex epidemiology of malaria together with the intense transmission rates in Africa may make it unsuitable for the first application of this technology. Diseases such as African trypanosomiasis, transmitted by the tsetse fly, or unstable malaria in India may provide more appropriate initial targets to evaluate the potential of this form of intervention.     

Combining Public Health Education and Disease Ecology Research: Using Citizen Science to Assess Chagas Disease Entomological Risk in Texas

Background

Chagas disease is a zoonotic parasitic disease well-documented throughout the Americas and transmitted primarily by triatomine ‘kissing bug’ vectors. In acknowledgment of the successful history of vector control programs based on community participation across Latin America, we used a citizen science approach to gain novel insight into the geographic distribution, seasonal activity, and Trypanosoma cruzi infection prevalence of kissing bugs in Texas while empowering the public with information about Chagas disease.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We accepted submissions of kissing bugs encountered by the public in Texas and other states from 2013–2014 while providing educational literature about Chagas disease. In the laboratory, kissing bugs were identified to species, dissected, and tested for T. cruzi infection. A total of 1,980 triatomines were submitted to the program comprised of at least seven species, of which T. gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga were the most abundant (85.7% of submissions). Triatomines were most commonly collected from dog kennels and outdoor patios; Overall, 10.5% of triatomines were collected from inside the home. Triatomines were submitted from across Texas, including many counties which were not previously known to harbor kissing bugs. Kissing bugs were captured primarily throughout April-October, and peak activity occurred in June-July. Emails to our dedicated account regarding kissing bugs were more frequent in the summer months (June-August) than the rest of the year. We detected T. cruzi in 63.3% of tested bugs.

Conclusions/Significance

Citizen science is an efficient approach for generating data on the distribution, phenology, and infection prevalence of kissing bugs—vectors of the Chagas disease parasite—while educating the public and medical community.     

Weekend bias in Citizen Science data reporting: implications for phenology studies

Studies of bird phenology can help elucidate the effects of climate change on wildlife species but observations over broad spatial scales are difficult without a network of observers. Recently, networks of citizen volunteers have begun to report first arrival dates for many migratory species. Potential benefits are substantial (e.g., understanding ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales) if known biases of citizen data reporting are identified and addressed. One potential source of bias in bird phenology studies is the tendency for more “first” migratory arrivals to be reported on weekends than on weekdays. We investigated weekend bias in data reporting for five common bird species in North America (Baltimore Oriole, Icterus galbula; Barn Swallow, Hirundo rustica; Chimney Swift, Chaetura pelagica; Purple Martin, Progne subis; and Ruby-throated Hummingbird, Archilochus colubris), and assessed whether this bias affected mean arrival dates reported using data from historical (1880–1969; N?=?25,555) and recent (1997–2010; N?=?63,149) Citizen Science databases. We found a greater percentage of first arrivals reported on weekends and small but significant differences in mean arrival dates (approximately 0.5 days) for four of five species. Comparing time periods, this weekend bias decreased from 33.7 % and five species in the historical time period to 32 % and three species in the recent, perhaps related to changes in human activity patterns. Our results indicate that weekend bias in citizen data reporting is decreasing over time in North America and including a ‘day of week’ term in models examining changes in phenology could help make conclusions more robust.     

Inter-Model Comparison of the Landscape Determinants of Vector-Borne Disease: Implications for Epidemiological and Entomological Risk Modeling

Extrapolating landscape regression models for use in assessing vector-borne disease risk and other applications requires thoughtful evaluation of fundamental model choice issues. To examine implications of such choices, an analysis was conducted to explore the extent to which disparate landscape models agree in their epidemiological and entomological risk predictions when extrapolated to new regions. Agreement between six literature-drawn landscape models was examined by comparing predicted county-level distributions of either Lyme disease or Ixodes scapularis vector using Spearman ranked correlation. AUC analyses and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the ability of these extrapolated landscape models to predict observed national data. Three models based on measures of vegetation, habitat patch characteristics, and herbaceous landcover emerged as effective predictors of observed disease and vector distribution. An ensemble model containing these three models improved precision and predictive ability over individual models. A priori assessment of qualitative model characteristics effectively identified models that subsequently emerged as better predictors in quantitative analysis. Both a methodology for quantitative model comparison and a checklist for qualitative assessment of candidate models for extrapolation are provided; both tools aim to improve collaboration between those producing models and those interested in applying them to new areas and research questions.     

Man Bites Mosquito: Understanding the Contribution of Human Movement to Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics

In metropolitan areas people travel frequently and extensively but often in highly structured commuting patterns. We investigate the role of this type of human movement in the epidemiology of vector-borne pathogens such as dengue. Analysis is based on a metapopulation model where mobile humans connect static mosquito subpopulations. We find that, due to frequency dependent biting, infection incidence in the human and mosquito populations is almost independent of the duration of contact. If the mosquito population is not uniformly distributed between patches the transmission potential of the pathogen at the metapopulation level, as summarized by the basic reproductive number, is determined by the size of the largest subpopulation and reduced by stronger connectivity. Global extinction of the pathogen is less likely when increased human movement enhances the rescue effect but, in contrast to classical theory, it is not minimized at an intermediate level of connectivity. We conclude that hubs and reservoirs of infection can be places people visit frequently but briefly and the relative importance of human and mosquito populations in maintaining the pathogen depends on the distribution of the mosquito population and the variability in human travel patterns. These results offer an insight in to the paradoxical observation of resurgent urban vector-borne disease despite increased investment in vector control and suggest that successful public health intervention may require a dual approach. Prospective studies can be used to identify areas with large mosquito populations that are also visited by a large fraction of the human population. Retrospective studies can be used to map recent movements of infected people, pinpointing the mosquito subpopulation from which they acquired the infection and others to which they may have transmitted it.     

Control of River Blindness in West Africa: Case History of Biodiversity in a Disease Control Program

The elimination of river blindness (onchocerciasis) in West Africa has been one of the most successful public health and economic development programs yet conducted. Control was based on aerial application of insecticides to control the aquatic, larval stages of black flies in the Simulium damnosum complex and distribution of ivermectin-based drugs to reduce incidence of the filarial worm, Onchocerca volvulus, that may ultimately result in blindness. Control efforts were long-term (1974–2003), extensive (with as many as 50,000 km of river miles being treated weekly for 12 years or longer), and far-reaching (distribution of drugs to almost 7 million people in 11 West African countries). The challenges and success of the program were strongly related to biodiversity: the vector S. damnosum is actually a complex of several species and subspecies, which vary in their competence in disease transmission; the filarial worm O. volvulus has different forms that vary in their virulence and incidence of producing blindness in humans; maintenance of the biodiversity of the non-target riverine fauna was a prime concern of both the control program and the donor countries that supported it; the main insecticide used to control the black fly vector was derived from a bacterium Bacillus thuringensis israelensis; and the drug used in controlling the filarial worm was derived from a soil-dwelling Streptomyces fungus. Long-term biomonitoring studies indicate that environmental damage (e.g., loss of sensitive taxa) incurred was reversed when insecticide applications ceased.     

一个具有时滞的媒介传播流行病模型中的Hopt分支（英文）

文章研究的是一个具有时滞的媒介传播流行病模型.假定长期的发病率是双线性大规模行动的方式,确定了疾病是否流行的阈值R_0.当R_0≤1时,得到无病平衡点是全局稳定的,即疾病消失;当R_0〉1时,得到地方病平衡点.在具有时滞的微分模型中,时滞与载体转变成传染源的孵化期有关。我们研究了时滞对平衡点稳定性的影响,研究表明,在从寄生源到载体的传播过程中,时滞可以破坏动力系统并且得到了Hopt分支的周期解.     

An Alternative Approach: Teaching Evolution in a Natural History Museum Through the Topic of Vector-Borne Disease

Museums play a vitally important role in supporting both informal and formal education and are important venues for fostering public understanding of evolution. The Yale Peabody Museum has implemented significant education programs on evolution for many decades, mostly focused on the museum’s extensive collections that represent the past and present tree of life. Twelve years ago, the Peabody began a series of new programs that explored biodiversity and evolution as it relates to human health. Modern evolutionary theory contributes significantly to our understanding of health and disease, and medical topics provide many excellent and relevant examples to explore evolutionary concepts. The Peabody developed a program on vector-borne diseases, specifically Lyme disease and West Nile virus, which have become endemic in the United States. Both of these diseases have complex transmission cycles involving an intricate interplay among the pathogen, host, and vector, each of which is subject to differing evolutionary pressures. Using these stories, the museum explored evolutionary concepts of adaptation (e.g., the evolution of blood feeding), coevolution (e.g., the “arms race” between host and vector), and variation and selection (e.g., antibiotic resistance) among others. The project included a temporary exhibition and the development of curriculum materials for middle and high school teachers and students. The popularity of the exhibit and some formal evaluation of student participants suggested that this educational approach has significant potential to engage wide audiences in evolutionary issues. In addition it demonstrated how natural history museums can incorporate evolution into a broad array of programs.     

Citizen and Subject: Contemporary Africa and the Legacy of Late Colonialism

Citizen and Subject: Contemporary Africa and the Legacy of Late Colonialism. Mahmood Mamdani. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996. 353 pp.     

The Effects of Host Diversity on Vector-Borne Disease: The Conditions under Which Diversity Will Amplify or Dilute the Disease Risk

Multihost vector-borne infectious diseases form a significant fraction of the global infectious disease burden. In this study we explore the relationship between host diversity, vector behavior, and disease risk. To this end, we have developed a new dynamic model which includes two distinct host species and one vector species with variable preferences. With the aid of the model we were able to compute the basic reproductive rate, R ₀, a well-established measure of disease risk that serves as a threshold parameter for disease outbreak. The model analysis reveals that the system has two different qualitative behaviors: (i) the well-known dilution effect, where the maximal R₀ is obtained in a community which consists a single host (ii) a new amplification effect, denoted by us as diversity amplification, where the maximal R₀ is attained in a community which consists both hosts. The model analysis extends on previous results by underlining the mechanism of both, diversity amplification and the dilution, and specifies the exact conditions for their occurrence. We have found that diversity amplification occurs where the vector prefers the host with the highest transmission ability, and dilution is obtained when the vector does not show any preference, or it prefers to bite the host with the lower transmission ability. The mechanisms of dilution and diversity amplification are able to account for the different and contradictory patterns often observed in nature (i.e., in some cases disease risk is increased while in other is decreased when the diversity is increased). Implication of the diversity amplification mechanism also challenges current premises about the interaction between biodiversity, climate change, and disease risk and calls for retrospective thinking in planning intervention policies aimed at protecting the preferred host species.