Long‐term breeding demography and density dependence in an increasing population of Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos

Few studies have quantified the dynamics of recovering populations of large raptors using long‐term, spatially explicit studies. Using data collected over 37 years in the western Italian Alps, we assessed the trends in distribution, abundance, fecundity and breeding population structure of Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos. Using the spatial distribution of territory centroids in 2007, we found that the spatial distribution of eagle territories was over‐dispersed up to 3 km. Although population size and total productivity increased from 1972 to 2008, the proportion of pairs that laid eggs showed a strong decline, falling to no more than 50% after 2003. On average, 15% of successful nests produced two fledglings, and productivity also declined over time. No significant relationship between population growth rate and total population size was detected, but the percentage of pairs that bred and breeding success showed evidence of density dependence, as they declined significantly with increasing density. Our results suggest that density dependence, operating across heterogeneous habitats, is currently regulating this population, while the carrying capacity may still be increasing. This may explain the apparent paradox of reduced breeding effort despite increasing total productivity.     

Rapid population declines of Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus) and red-headed vulture (Sarcogyps calvus) in India

Since the early 1990s, large and rapid population declines of three species of vulture ( Gyps spp.) endemic to south Asia have occurred on the Indian subcontinent and have led to these species being listed by IUCN as critically endangered. Evidence of rates of population decline, cause of death and toxicity is consistent with these declines being caused by poisoning of vultures through the ingestion of tissues from livestock treated with the anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac. In this paper, analysis of repeated surveys in and near protected areas widely spread across India shows that populations of two other vulture species, Egyptian vulture Neophron percnopterus and red-headed vulture Sarcogyps calvus , have also declined markedly and rapidly, but probably with a later onset than Gyps vultures in the same region. The declines continued at least up to 2003. It is recommended that these two species are considered for inclusion in the IUCN Red List and for urgent remedial conservation measures. Research is needed to determine whether or not the principal cause of these declines is diclofenac poisoning and to establish population trends in other scavenging birds in the Indian subcontinent.     

Long‐term decline despite conservation efforts questions Eurasian Stone‐curlew population viability in intensive farmlands

Agricultural intensification over the past decades has led to a generalized decline in farmland biodiversity. Farmland birds are particularly exposed to rapid changes in habitat and reduced food resources or availability. Understanding how farmland specialists can be preserved and their populations enhanced are major challenges for this century. Based on a long‐term (19‐year) study of a Eurasian Stone‐curlew Burhinus oedicnemus population, we estimated the demographic parameters, including clutch size, egg volume, hatching success, survival rate and apparent population size. Demographic rates found for this French population were, on average, comparable to those found elsewhere in Europe. However, all demographic parameters showed negative trends, including a dramatic decline in the local population (26% decline over 14 years) and a 10% decline in adult survival rate over 11 years. Such a long‐term decline, despite on‐going conservation efforts, calls into question the overall sustainability of arable Stone‐curlew populations. We infer some of the possible causes of this decline, in particular food shortage, and discuss how this pattern could be reversed through conservation measures applicable at very large spatial scales.     

Inter‐annual variability and long‐term trends in breeding success in a declining population of migratory swans

Population declines among migratory Arctic‐breeding birds are a growing concern for conservationists. To inform the conservation of these declining populations, we need to understand how demographic rates such as breeding success are influenced by combinations of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In this study we examined inter‐annual variation and long‐term trends in two aspects of the breeding success of a migratory herbivore, the Bewick's swan Cygnus columbianus bewickii, which is currently undergoing a population decline: 1) the percentage of young within the wintering population and 2) mean brood size. We used an information‐theoretic approach to test how these two measures of productivity were influenced over a 26 yr period by 12 potential explanatory variables, encompassing both environmental (e.g. temperature) and intrinsic (e.g. pair‐bond duration) factors. Swan productivity exhibited sensitivity to both types of explanatory variable. Fewer young were observed on the wintering grounds in years in which the breeding period (May to September) was colder and predator (Arctic fox) abundance was higher. The percentage of young within the wintering population also showed negative density‐dependence. Inter‐annual variance in mean swan brood size was best explained by a model comprised of the negative degree days during the swan breeding period, mean pair‐bond duration of all paired swans (i.e. mean pair duration), and an interaction between these two variables. In particular, mean pair duration had a strong positive effect on mean brood size. However, we found no long‐term directional trend in either measure of breeding success, despite the recent decline in the NW European population. Our results highlight that inter‐annual variability in breeding success is sensitive to the combined effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors.     

Population expansion and breeding success of Bearded Vultures Gypaetus barbatus in the French Pyrenees: results from long‐term population monitoring

Based on monitoring of Bearded Vultures over 24 years in the French Pyrenees, we assessed factors explaining temporal and spatial variations in numbers and breeding performance. The number of territorial pairs increased throughout the study period from 16 in 1994 to 44 in 2017. No significant negative trends in mean productivity (fledglings per territorial pair) were detected with increasing population size. Colonization probability increased significantly with breeding population size the previous year and with the regular provision of supplementary food in the territory the winter when colonization occurred. Colonization of new territories simultaneously increased the distribution range and local densities, but we found no effect of number of near neighbours on productivity. Pairs having bred less than 5 years together had a much lower probability of laying clutches, and higher lay rates were observed inside or close to protected areas after accounting for pair‐bond length, so productivity of territories inside protected areas was significantly higher. Nest success decreased with advanced lay date and increased with winter food abundance. Nesting failures in the study area were frequently associated with harsh weather. Additionally, disturbance by human activities was the second most important identified cause of breeding failure. The probability of failing due to disturbance was higher in western areas (where breeding areas are more accessible to humans), outside protected areas, and has increased with time. After a failure due to disturbance, there was a significantly higher probability of not producing a clutch the following year as compared with pairs that had not failed or had failed due to other causes, indicating deferred effects of disturbance. Our results show the benefits of conservation management actions, such as implementation of protected areas or designed supplementary food programmes in winter, to help range expansion. On the other hand, we did not find a significant effect of winter supplementary food on productivity. Management of feeding sites should be adapted to more specific planning, being used only in areas where natural food availability is scarce, avoiding its use close to breeding sites when juveniles disperse, and targeted mainly to help range expansion. Our results also highlight the importance of maintaining or enhancing good populations of wild ungulates and regulating human activities around nesting sites of this threatened species.     

Long‐term persistence of wildlife populations in a pastoral area

Facilitating coexistence between people and wildlife is a major conservation challenge in East Africa. Some conservation models aim to balance the needs of people and wildlife, but the effectiveness of these models is rarely assessed. Using a case‐study approach, we assessed the ecological performance of a pastoral area in northern Tanzania (Manyara Ranch) and established a long‐term wildlife population monitoring program (carried out intermittently from 2003 to 2008 and regularly from 2011 to 2019) embedded in a distance sampling framework. By comparing density estimates of the road transect‐based long‐term monitoring to estimates derived from systematically distributed transects, we found that the bias associated with nonrandom placement of transects was nonsignificant. Overall, cattle and sheep and goat reached the greatest densities and several wildlife species occurred at densities similar (zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, Kirk's dik‐dik) or possibly even greater (giraffe, eland, lesser kudu, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle) than in adjacent national parks in the same ecosystem. Generalized linear mixed models suggested that most wildlife species (8 out of 14) reached greatest densities during the dry season, that wildlife population densities either remained constant or increased over the 17‐year period, and that herbivorous livestock species remained constant, while domestic dog population decreased over time. Cross‐species correlations did not provide evidence for interference competition between grazing or mixed livestock species and wildlife species but indicate possible negative relationships between domestic dog and warthog populations. Overall, wildlife and livestock populations in Manyara Ranch appear to coexist over the 17‐year span. Most likely, this is facilitated by existing connectivity to adjacent protected areas, effective anti‐poaching efforts, spatio‐temporal grazing restrictions, favorable environmental conditions of the ranch, and spatial heterogeneity of surface water and habitats. This long‐term case study illustrates the potential of rangelands to simultaneously support wildlife conservation and human livelihood goals if livestock grazing is restricted in space, time, and numbers.     

Bottom‐up processes in a declining yellow‐footed rock‐wallaby (Petrogale xanthopus celeris) population

Populations of large herbivores are generally considered to be food limited, escaping the regulatory effects of predation through their large body size, migratory behaviour and/or the occurrence of alternate prey species. In the Australian arid and semi‐arid zones, the availability of forage biomass is considered to be the primary driver of fluctuations in kangaroo abundance. However, little is known about the population dynamics of the smaller sympatric macropods. We examined the demographic traits of a large colony of yellow‐footed rock‐wallabies (Petrogale xanthopus celeris), following a 2‐year period of above average rainfall. The population was located within a conservation reserve that was subject to a predator control program around its perimeter and on neighbouring properties. The low predator abundance provided an opportunity to gauge the strength of bottom‐up population processes. During the two years of the study, the population declined in size by 53%, resulting from both the virtual absence of juvenile recruitment and the loss of adult wallabies. Although reproductive output was high, low pouch young and juvenile survival rates resulted in few individuals progressing into the adult population. With minimal recruitment, the rate of population decline (r = 0.77) matched the observed adult survival rate (Φ = 0.76). Despite average rainfall conditions during the study, survival rates across all age‐classes were equivalent to those reported for other rock‐wallaby populations during periods of scarcity. The reduced survival rates were attributed to low levels of forage resources, particularly around the wallabies' refuge sites, suggesting the bottom‐up regulation of the colony at high densities. The data suggest that the colony was at temporarily high abundance, following a rainfall driven pulse of recruitment. Conservation management actions for this species should focus on increasing juvenile survival rates within declining populations, through the control of feral goats (Capra hircus), rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes).     

Long‐term mark‐and‐recapture study of a freshwater mussel reveals patterns of habitat use and an association between survival and river discharge

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Long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods,data management,and long‐term population trends

Long‐term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long‐term viability of species, but large‐scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long‐term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long‐term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year‐to‐year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large‐scale and long‐term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long‐term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long‐term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life‐history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long‐term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.     

Comparative breeding performance of Marsh Harriers Circus aeruginosus along a gradient of land‐use intensification and implications for population management

Assessing variation in breeding performance in relation to habitat characteristics may provide insights into predicting the consequences of land‐use change on species ecology and population dynamics. We compared four Marsh Harrier Circus aeruginosus populations subject to similar environmental conditions, but which differed in habitat composition, ranging from natural habitats to intensively cultivated areas. Using a 6‐year dataset, we characterized breeding habitat and diet in these four study sites, and analysed breeding performance in relation to this gradient of land‐use intensification. There was minimal variation in breeding performance between study years but consistent variation between study sites. Unexpectedly, Marsh Harriers breeding in intensively cultivated habitats had higher reproductive success than those breeding in more natural habitats, which, however, hosted higher breeding densities, so overall net population productivity (fledglings per unit area) was similar across sites. This resulted from combined effects of density‐dependence and different predation rates between study sites. The colonization of intensive farmland habitats may not necessarily impact negatively on population sustainability when breeding success and population density are traded against each other. However, our findings should not mask longer‐term conservation issues for populations breeding in these intensively managed areas, and further studies should assess potential long‐term negative effects of occupancy of human‐altered habitat.     

Infochemical use and dietary specialization in parasitoids: a meta‐analysis

Many parasitoid species use olfactory cues to locate their hosts. In tritrophic systems, parasitoids of herbivores can exploit the chemical blends emitted by plants in reaction to herbivore‐induced damage, known as herbivore‐induced plant volatiles (HIPVs). In this study, we explored the specificity and innateness of parasitoid responses to HIPVs using a meta‐analysis of data from the literature. Based on the concept of dietary specialization and infochemical use, we hypothesized that (i) specialist parasitoids (i.e., with narrow host ranges) should be attracted to specific HIPV signals, whereas generalist parasitoids (i.e., with broad host ranges) should be attracted to more generic HIPV signals and (ii) specialist parasitoids should innately respond to HIPVs, whereas generalist parasitoids should have to learn to associate HIPVs with host presence. We characterized the responses of 66 parasitoid species based on published studies of parasitoid behavior. Our meta‐analysis showed that (i) as predicted, specialist parasitoids were attracted to more specific signals than were generalist parasitoids but, (ii) contrary to expectations, response innateness depended on a parasitoid's target host life stage rather than on its degree of host specialization: parasitoids of larvae were more likely to show an innate response to HIPVs than were parasitoids of adults. This result changes our understanding of dietary specialization and highlights the need for further theoretical research that will help clarify infochemical use by parasitoids.     

Long‐term effects of prairie restoration on plant community structure and native population dynamics

The key to restoring degraded grassland habitats is identifying feasible and effective techniques to reduce the negative impacts of exotic species and promote self‐sustaining native populations. It is often difficult to extend monitoring of restoration efforts to evaluate long‐term success, but doing so is essential to understanding how initial outcomes change over time. To assess how initial treatment effects persist, we revisited degraded patches of Pacific Northwest prairie habitat 6 years after experimental restoration efforts ceased. We evaluated plant community composition to determine the lasting effects of supplemental native seeding and disturbance treatments (burning, mowing, and herbicide to reduce exotic species). We tracked the persistence of seeded species and measured spread of their populations to evaluate suitability of species for restoration and the ability of the habitat to support native plant populations. We found that plots that received supplemental seeding continued to exhibit higher richness of native species than those left unseeded, and that both seeding and disturbance treatments could positively influence native species abundance over the long term. The initially observed effects of disturbance treatments on reducing exotic grass abundance had diminished, highlighting the importance of long‐term monitoring and ongoing control of exotic species. Nevertheless, these treatments significantly influenced the population trajectories of 4 out of 8 seeded native species. There was evidence of spatial advance of most seeded species. Results from extended monitoring confirm that dispersal limitation of native species and difficulties maintaining the reduction of exotic grasses continue to be major barriers to success in restoration of invaded grasslands.     

Quantifying the links between land use and population growth rate in a declining farmland bird

Land use is likely to be a key driver of population dynamics of species inhabiting anthropogenic landscapes, such as farmlands. Understanding the relationships between land use and variation in population growth rates is therefore critical for the management of many farmland species. Using 24 years of data of a declining farmland bird in an integrated population model, we examined how spatiotemporal variation in land use (defined as habitats with “Short” and “Tall” ground vegetation during the breeding season) and habitat‐specific demographic parameters relates to variation in population growth taking into account individual movements between habitats. We also evaluated contributions to population growth using transient life table response experiments which gives information on contribution of past variation of parameters and real‐time elasticities which suggests future scenarios to change growth rates. LTRE analyses revealed a clear contribution of Short habitats to the annual variation in population growth rate that was mostly due to fledgling recruitment, whereas there was no evidence for a contribution of Tall habitats. Only 18% of the variation in population growth was explained by the modeled local demography, the remaining variation being explained by apparent immigration (i.e., the residual variation). We discuss potential biological and methodological reasons for high contributions of apparent immigration in open populations. In line with LTRE analysis, real‐time elasticity analysis revealed that demographic parameters linked to Short habitats had a stronger potential to influence population growth rate than those of Tall habitats. Most particularly, an increase of the proportion of Short sites occupied by Old breeders could have a distinct positive impact on population growth. High‐quality Short habitats such as grazed pastures have been declining in southern Sweden. Converting low‐quality to high‐quality habitats could therefore change the present negative population trend of this, and other species with similar habitat requirements.     

Long‐term changes in the migration phenology of UK breeding birds detected by large‐scale citizen science recording schemes

The timing of migration is one of the key life‐history parameters of migratory birds. It is expected to be under strong selection, to be sensitive to changing environmental conditions and to have implications for population dynamics. However, most phenological studies do not describe arrival and departure phenologies for a species in a way that is robust to potential biases, or that can be clearly related to breeding populations. This hampers our ability to understand more fully how climate change may affect species’ migratory strategies, their life histories and ultimately their population dynamics. Using generalized additive models (GAMs) and extensive large‐scale data collected in the UK over a 40‐year period, we present standardized measures of migration phenology for common migratory birds, and examine how the phenology of bird migration has changed in the UK since the 1960s. Arrival dates for 11 of 14 common migrants became significantly earlier, with six species advancing their arrival by more than 10 days. These comprised two species, Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla and Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, which winter closest to Britain in southern Europe and the arid northern zone of Africa, Common Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus, which winters in the arid zone, and three hirundines (Sand Martin Riparia riparia, House Martin Delichon urbicum and Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica), which winter in different parts of Africa. Concurrently, departure dates became significantly later for four of the 14 species and included species that winter in southern Europe (Blackcap and Chiffchaff) and in humid zones of Africa (Garden Warbler Sylvia borin and Whinchat Saxicola rubetra). Common Swift Apus apus was the exception in departing significantly earlier. The net result of earlier arrival and later departure for most species was that length of stay has become significantly longer for nine of the 14 species. Species that have advanced their timing of arrival showed the most positive trends in abundance, in accordance with previous studies. Related in part to earlier arrival and the relationship above, we also show that species extending their stay in Great Britain have shown the most positive trends. Further applications of our modelling approach will provide opportunities for more robust tests of relationships between phenological change and population dynamics than have been possible previously.     

Effect of breeding performance on the distribution and activity budgets of a predominantly resident population of black‐browed albatrosses

Pelagic seabirds breeding at high latitudes generally split their annual cycle between reproduction, migration, and wintering. During the breeding season, they are constrained in their foraging range due to reproduction while during winter months, and they often undertake long‐distance migrations. Black‐browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanophris) nesting in the Falkland archipelago remain within 700 km from their breeding colonies all year‐round and can therefore be considered as resident. Accordingly, at‐sea activity patterns are expected to be adjusted to the absence of migration. Likewise, breeding performance is expected to affect foraging, flying, and floating activities, as failed individuals are relieved from reproduction earlier than successful ones. Using geolocators coupled with a saltwater immersion sensor, we detailed the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of at‐sea activity budgets of successful and failed breeding black‐browed albatrosses nesting in New Island, Falklands archipelago, over the breeding and subsequent nonbreeding season. The 90% monthly kernel distribution of failed and successful breeders suggested no spatial segregation. Both groups followed the same dynamics of foraging effort both during daylight and darkness all year, except during chick‐rearing, when successful breeders foraged more intensively. Failed and successful breeders started decreasing flying activities during daylight at the same time, 2–3 weeks after hatching period, but failed breeders reached their maximum floating activity during late chick‐rearing, 2 months before successful breeders. Moon cycle had a significant effect on activity budgets during darkness, with individuals generally more active during full moon. Our results highlight that successful breeders buffer potential reproductive costs during the nonbreeding season, and this provides a better understanding of how individuals adjust their spatial distribution and activity budgets according to their breeding performance in absence of migration.     

Influences of habitat features and human disturbance on use of breeding sites by a declining population of southern fur seals (Arctocephalus australis)

Southern fur seals Arctocephalus australis in Peru have declined gradually over the past decade, and declined dramatically (72%) as a result of low food availability during the severe El Niño in 1997–98. In 1999, seals abandoned some historically important breeding sites. This is particularly alarming because new sites were not colonized. Our objective was to examine how habitat features and human disturbance influenced whether sites were currently used, abandoned or apparently not used in the past by fur seals for breeding. Data were collected on 14 variables at 70 potential breeding sites at three guano reserves in Peru. Discriminant analysis revealed significant multivariate differences among sites currently used for breeding, abandoned sites and unused sites ( F =5.97, P <0.00001), and the model classified 74% of sites correctly. Currently used sites were less likely to have human disturbance and more likely to have offshore islands, stacked rocks, tide pools and abundant shade. Separate discriminant analyses for each reserve produced similar results. Habitat associated with thermoregulation (e.g. shade or pools) may be more important to fur seals in Peru, which breed at lower latitudes and are at greater risk of overheating on land than other populations. Habitat with minimized human access may be especially important to seals in small populations in which individuals may perceive themselves as more vulnerable because of decreased vigilance and dilution effects. Seals in our study selected breeding habitat with stacked rocks, which create shade and tide pools for thermoregulation and make human access difficult; but pups might suffer higher mortality in this habitat. We hypothesize that fur seals in Peru may exhibit an Allee effect, whereby suitability of habitat varies with population abundance.     

Long‐term population dynamics of a coral reef gastropod and responses to disturbance

The age‐specific density of the red‐lipped stromb Strombus luhuanus (Mollusca: Gastropoda) was monitored over 13 years (1981–1993) at four locations on the intertidal reef flat at Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef. Densities were highly variable, but there were persistent, location‐specific differences in population density, age structure and adult body size, the latter indicating that the populations were not extensively linked by adult movement. There was relatively high recruitment at most locations in 1984, 1989 and 1993, each occurring approximately 2 years after El Niño/Southern Oscillation events, although recruit density during these years varied in both space and time. The studied strombs experienced three disturbance events: (i) experimental harvesting at two locations (1984–1985); (ii) siltation from a harbour dredging operation (1987–1988); and (iii) a severe cyclone (1992). Resilience to harvesting at a local scale (0.5–2 ha) was high: density had recovered within a year, due to immigration of adults and older juveniles. Strombus luhuanus responded much more strongly to broad‐scale changes to its environment than to localized harvesting. After dredging, there was a progressive density decline coupled with low recruitment at two locations, and a later decline at a third location, followed by a recruitment‐driven rebound after the cyclone. Generalized environmental effects of siltation and the cyclone were also reflected in substantial changes in algal cover. Long‐term variations in environmental conditions probably cause high temporal variation over large spatial scales through effects on the survival of larvae or recruits. Localized short‐term field monitoring of such species would give a misleading picture of key factors affecting population dynamics.     

A quadratic correlation between long‐term mean group size and group density in a cooperatively breeding passerine

Both mean group size (MGS) and mean group density (MGD) are critical indices to characterize a population of cooperatively breeding birds. When a population reaches its carrying capacity, both long‐term MGS and long‐term MGD will remain relatively stable. However, there has been little study of how these two variables relate. The Masked laughingthrush Garrulax perspicillatus is a cooperatively breeding bird living in fragmented habitats. During 2010 and 2012‐2016, we used song playback to observe and confirm the group sizes and territory ranges of the birds and the data of bird presence to determine habitat suitability. By grouping the nearest territories according to their geographical coordinates, we divided the whole study area into 12 subareas and the whole population into 12 subpopulations. Then, we calculated both MGS and MGD for different time durations for each subpopulation. Finally, using MGD as independent variable and MGS as the dependent variable, we explored the correlations between MGS and MGD by fitting quadratic functions and modeling quadratic regression. Both MGS and MGD were averaged for different time durations and were cross‐related. Our results show that the MGS for more than 2 years significantly correlated with MGD for more than 3 years in a reverse parabolic shape, differing from that of short‐term effects. Our findings suggest that long‐term MGD is a better predictor of long‐term habitat quality and that long‐term MGS is determined by long‐term habitat quality in Masked Laughingthrushes. Based on above findings, we can infer that: (1) Long‐term habitat quality determines the long‐term MGS, but it sets no prerequisite for the status and source of group members; (2) Long‐term MGS in certain populations is adapted to the corresponding level of long‐term habitat quality, it facilitates us to predict the helper effects on current or future survival or reproduction in different situations. These findings and inferences are both helpful for us to understand the evolution of cooperative breeding.     

Long‐term changes in autumn migration dates at the Strait of Gibraltar reflect population trends of soaring birds

A growing body of work shows that climate change is the cause of a number of directional shifts in the spring phenology of migratory birds. However, changes in autumn phenology are well studied and their consistency across species, as well as their link with population trends, remains uncertain. We investigate changes in the autumn migration dates of 11 species of soaring birds over the Strait of Gibraltar over a 16‐year period. Using models corrected for phylogeny, we assessed whether ecological and morphological characteristics, as well as population trends, account for interspecific shifts in migration times. We recorded different phenological changes in different periods of the migration season and suggest that these differences are due to age‐dependent responses. The variable best predicting advances in migration dates was population trend: species that did not advance their autumn migration dates were those showing a decline in their European breeding populations. We repeated our tests on a dataset representing the migration date of soaring birds across the Pyrenees Mountains and found that population trends at this site also predicted phenological shifts. Our results suggest that flexibility in migratory strategy and population trends may be related, such that different adaptive capacity in migration timing may be more relevant than other ecological traits in determining the conservation status of migratory birds in Europe and perhaps other regions.