Robust methods for detecting a small island effect

Aim The small island effect (SIE), i.e. the hypothesis that species richness below a certain threshold area varies independently of island size, has become a widely accepted part of the theory of island biogeography. However, there are doubts whether the findings of SIEs were based on appropriate methods. The aim of this study was thus to provide a statistically sound methodology for the detection of SIEs and to show this by re‐analysing data in which an SIE has recently been claimed ( Sfenthourakis & Triantis, 2009 , Diversity and Distributions, 15 , 131–140). Location Ninety islands of the Aegean Sea (Greece). Methods First, I reviewed publications on SIEs and evaluated their methodology. Then, I fitted different species–area models to the published data of area (A) and species richness (S) of terrestrial isopods (Oniscidea), with log A as predictor and both S (logarithm function) and log S (power function) as response variables: (i) linear; (ii) quadratic; (iii) cubic; (iv) breakpoint with zero slope to the left (SIE model); (v) breakpoint with zero slope to the right; (vi) two‐slope model. I used non‐linear regression with R²_adj., AIC_c and BIC as goodness‐of‐fit measures. Results Many different methods have been applied for detecting SIEs, all of them with serious shortcomings. Contrary to the claim of the original study, no SIE occurs in this particular dataset as the two‐slope variants performed better than the SIE variants for both the logarithm and power functions. Main conclusions For the unambiguous detection of SIEs, one needs to (i) include islands with no species; (ii) compare all relevant models; and (iii) account for different model complexities. As none of the reviewed SIE studies met all these criteria, their findings are dubious and SIEs may be less common than reported. Thus, conservation‐related predictions based on the assumption of SIEs may be unreliable.     

Morphology,ultrastructure and phylogenetic affinities of the single-island endemic Anthoceros cristatus Steph. (Ascension Island)

Oceanic islands, due to their geographical isolation, number, precisely defined boundaries and their geomorphological and climatic diversity, have provided enormous insights into speciation, dispersal, adaptive radiations and macroecological processes. One of the key components of these island studies is the role of single-island endemics (SIEs) as, in many instances, island biogeography models use the proportion of SIEs to infer evolutionary processes. It is, therefore, imperative to undertake critical taxonomic revisions to evaluate SIEs because changes in the number of SIEs have a key impact on downstream biogeographic analyses. We revise the special case of a putative SIE Anthoceros cristatus on Ascension Island using light and electron microscopy, as well phylogenomic tools. A. cristatus lies within the A. agrestis/A. punctatus complex but differs from the sister species A. agrestis and A. punctatus in spore morphology and gametophytic lamellae fringed with caducous marginal cells. The present confirmation, from both molecules and morphology, of the SIE status of Anthoceros cristatus and its restricted distribution on the Island makes the preservation of its habitat a conservation priority. Ascension Island is the tip of an undersea volcano that is thought to have emerged from the ocean 1 million years ago with an area of approximately 91?km², with Green Mountain as the highest elevation (～859?m a.s.l.). Ascension has a relative low bryophyte species diversity of 87 spp but this includes 12 endemics (～14%); a much higher level of endemism than on the far more speciose Macaronesian Islands.     

Towards a more general species–area relationship: diversity on all islands, great and small

Aim

To demonstrate a new and more general model of the species–area relationship that builds on traditional models, but includes the provision that richness may vary independently of island area on relatively small islands (the small island effect).

Location

We analysed species–area patterns for a broad diversity of insular biotas from aquatic and terrestrial archipelagoes.

Methods

We used breakpoint or piecewise regression methods by adding an additional term (the breakpoint transformation) to traditional species–area models. The resultant, more general, species–area model has three readily interpretable, biologically relevant parameters: (1) the upper limit of the small island effect (SIE), (2) an estimate of richness for relatively small islands and (3) the slope of the species–area relationship (in semi‐log or log–log space) for relatively large islands.

Results

The SIE, albeit of varying magnitude depending on the biotas in question, appeared to be a relatively common feature of the data sets we studied. The upper limit of the SIE tended to be highest for species groups with relatively high resource requirements and low dispersal abilities, and for biotas of more isolated archipelagoes.

Main conclusions

The breakpoint species–area model can be used to test for the significance, and to explore patterns of variation in small island effects, and to estimate slopes of the species–area (semi‐log or log–log) relationship after adjusting for SIE. Moreover, the breakpoint species–area model can be expanded to investigate three fundamentally different realms of the species–area relationship: (1) small islands where species richness varies independent of area, but with idiosyncratic differences among islands and with catastrophic events such as hurricanes, (2) islands beyond the upper limit of SIE where richness varies in a more deterministic and predictable manner with island area and associated, ecological factors and (3) islands large enough to provide the internal geographical isolation (large rivers, mountains and other barriers within islands) necessary for in situ speciation.

     

Small island biogeography in the Gulf of California: lizards, the subsidized island biogeography hypothesis, and the small island effect

Aim We used insular lizard communities to test the predictions of two hypotheses that attempt to explain patterns of species richness on small islands. We first address the subsidized island biogeography (SIB) hypothesis, which predicts that spatial subsidies may cause insular species richness to deviate from species–area predictions, especially on small islands. Next, we examine the small island effect (SIE), which suggests small islands may not fit the traditional log‐linear species–area curve. Location Islands with arthropodivorous lizard communities throughout the Gulf of California. Methods To evaluate the SIB hypothesis, we first identified subsidized and unsubsidized islands based on surrogate measures of allochthonous productivity (i.e. island size and bird presence). Subsequently, we created species–area curves from previously published lizard species richness and island area data. We used the residuals and slopes from these analyses to compare species richness on subsidized and unsubsidized islands. To test for an SIE, we used breakpoint regression to model the relationship between lizard species richness and island area. We compared results from this model to results from the log‐linear regression model. Results Subsidized islands had a lower slope than unsubsidized islands, and the difference between these groups was significant when small islands were defined as < 1 km². In addition to comparing slopes, we tested for differences in the magnitude of the residuals (from the species–area regression of all islands) for subsidized vs. unsubsidized islands. We found no significant patterns in the residual values for small vs. large islands, or between islands with and without seabirds. The SIE was found to be a slightly better predictor of lizard species richness than the traditional log‐linear model. Main conclusions Predictions of the SIB hypothesis were partially supported by the data. The absence of a significant SIE may be a result of spatial subsidies as explained by the SIB hypothesis and data presented here. We conclude by suggesting potential scenarios to test for interactions between these two small island hypotheses. Future studies considering factors affecting species richness should examine the possible role of spatial subsidies, an SIE, or a synergistic effect of the two in data sets with small islands.     

Island,archipelago and taxon effects: mixed models as a means of dealing with the imperfect design of nature's experiments

A major aim of island biogeography has been to describe general patterns of species richness across islands and to identify the processes responsible. Data are often collected across many islands; with larger datasets providing increased statistical power and more accurate parameter estimates. However, there is often structure in observational data, violating an assumption of linear models that each datum is independent. In island biogeography this structure may take the form of an island, archipelago or taxon being represented by multiple data points. We survey recent papers in this field and find that these forms of non‐independence are a common feature. Most authors addressed this problem by conducting separate analyses for each archipelago, taxon or combination of the two, but a better tool for dealing with non‐independence and structure in data, the mixed model, already exists. We demonstrate the advantages of a mixed model approach by applying it to a well‐known dataset that spans 134 observations of single island endemic (SIE) richness across 39 islands, four archipelagos and four taxa. Taking island area and age into account, SIE richness varies substantially more among archipelagos than it does among islands or taxa. We find that SIE richness rises with island age on the Azores and Galapagos, while on the Canaries and Hawaii SIE richness initially rises with age but later declines on older islands. Our analyses demonstrate three advantages to island biogeography of applying a mixed modelling approach: 1) structure in the data is controlled for; 2) the variance among islands, archipelagos and taxa is estimated; 3) all the data can be included in a single model, making it possible to test whether trends are general across all archipelagos and taxa or are idiosyncratic.     

Vascular plant species richness in relation to habitat diversity and island area in the Finnish Archipelago

Aim The aim of this study is to explore the interrelationships between island area, species number and habitat diversity in two archipelago areas. Location The study areas, Brunskär and Getskär, are located in an archipelago in south‐western Finland. Methods The study areas, 82 islands in Brunskär and 78 in Getskär, were classified into nine habitat types based on land cover. In the Brunskär area, the flora (351 species) was surveyed separately for each individual habitat on the islands. In the Getskär area, the flora (302 species) was surveyed on a whole‐island basis. We used standard techniques to analyse the species–area relationship on a whole‐island and a habitat level. We also tested our data for the small island effect (SIE) using breakpoint and path analysis models. Results Species richness was significantly associated with both island area and habitat diversity. Vegetated area in particular, defined as island area with the rock habitat subtracted, proved to be a strong predictor of species richness. Species number had a greater association with island area multiplied by the number of habitats than with island area or habitat number separately. The tests for a SIE in the species–area relationship showed the existence of a SIE in one of the island groups. No SIE could be detected for the species–vegetated area relationship in either of the island groups. The strength of the species–area relationship differed considerably between the habitats. Main conclusions The general principles of island biogeography apply well to the 160 islands in this study. Vascular plant diversity for small islands is strongly influenced by physiographic factors. For the small islands with thin and varying soil cover, vegetated area was the most powerful predictor of species richness. The species–area curves of various habitats showed large variations, suggesting that the measurement of habitat areas and establishment of habitat‐based species lists are needed to better understand species richness on islands. We found some evidence of a SIE, but it is debatable whether this is a ‘true’ SIE or a soil cover/habitat characteristics feature.     

Island biogeography of the Mediterranean sea: the species–area relationship for terrestrial isopods

Aim We looked at the biogeographical patterns of Oniscidean fauna from the small islands of the Mediterranean Sea in order to investigate the species–area relationship and to test for area‐range effects. Location The Mediterranean Sea. Methods We compiled from the literature a data set of 176 species of Oniscidea (terrestrial isopods) distributed over 124 Mediterranean islands. Jaccard's index was used as input for a UPGMA cluster analysis. The species–area relationship was investigated by applying linear, semi‐logarithmic, logarithmic and sigmoid models. We also investigated a possible ‘small island effect’ (SIE) by performing breakpoint regression. We used a cumulative and a sliding‐window approach to evaluate scale‐dependent area‐range effects on the log S/log A regression parameters. Results Based on similarity indexes, results indicated that small islands of the Mediterranean Sea can be divided into two major groups: eastern and western. In general, islands from eastern archipelagos were linked together at similarity values higher than those observed for western Mediterranean islands. This is consistent with a more even distribution of species in the eastern Mediterranean islands. Separate archipelagos in the western Mediterranean could be discriminated, with the exception of islets, which tended to group together at the lowest similarity values regardless of the archipelago to which they belong. Islets were characterized by a few common species with large ranges. The species–area logarithmic model did not always provide the best fit. Most continental archipelagos showed very similar intercepts, higher than the intercept for the Canary island oceanic archipelago. Sigmoid regression returned convex curves. Evidence for a SIE was found, whereas area‐range effects that are dependent on larger scale analyses were not unambiguously supported. Main conclusions The Oniscidea fauna from small islands of the Mediterranean Sea is highly structured, with major and minor geographical patterns being identifiable. Some but not all of the biogeographical complexity can be explained by interpreting the different shapes of species–area curves. Despite its flexibility, the sigmoid model tested did not always provide the best fit. Moreover, when the model did provide a good fit the curves looked convex, not sigmoid. We found evidence for a SIE, and minor support for scale‐dependent area‐range effects.     

The species–area relationship in centipedes (Myriapoda: Chilopoda): a comparison between Mediterranean island groups

The present study article examines the shapes of centipede species–area relationships (SARs) in the Mediterranean islands, compares the results of the linear form of the power model between archipelagos, discusses biological significance of the power model parameters with other taxa on the Aegean archipelago, and tests for a significant small‐island effect (SIE). We used 11 models to test the SARs and we compared the quality‐of‐fit of all candidate models. The power function ranked first and Z‐values was in the range 0.106–0.334. We assessed the presence of SIEs by fitting both a continuous and discontinuous breakpoint regression model. The continuous breakpoint regression functions never performed much better than the closest discontinuous model as a predictor of centipede species richness. We suggest that the relatively low Z‐values in our data partly reflect better dispersal abilities in centipedes than in other soil invertebrate taxa. Longer periods of isolation and more recent island formation may explain the somewhat lower constant c in the western Mediterranean islands compared to the Aegean islands. Higher breakpoint values in the western Mediterranean may also be a result of larger distance to the mainland and longer separation times. Despite the differences in the geological history and the idiosyncratic features of the main island groups considered, the overall results are quite similar and this could be assigned to the ability of centipedes to disperse across isolation barriers. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 146–159.     

No evidence for the small‐island effect in avian communities on islands of an inundated lake

The small‐island effect (SIE), i.e. the hypothesis that species richness on islands below a certain threshold area varies independently of area, has become more and more part of the theoretical framework of biogeography and biodiversity research. However, existing SIE studies are extraordinarily biased taxonomically: plants and other animal taxonomic groups are predominantly studied, while birds are almost completely overlooked. Furthermore, previous methods for the detection of SIE are flawed in one or another way, including not accounting for model complexity, not comparing all relevant models, not including islands with no species, and ignoring the effects of logarithmic data transformations and habitat diversity in generating SIE. Therefore, the existence and the prevalence of the SIE may be dubious. In this study, after controlling for all these methodological shortcomings in detecting the SIE, we test for the existence of the SIE using bird data collected on islands in the Thousand Island Lake, China. We used the line‐transect method to survey bird occupancy and abundance on 42 islands from 2007 to 2011. We used three broad sets of analyses, regression‐based analyses, path analyses and null model analyses, to overcome potential methodological problems in detecting the SIE. We found no evidence for an SIE in avian communities in the Thousand Island Lake. Model selection based on AIC_c identified the simple power model without SIE as the most parsimonious model. In contrast, there was little support for the three breakpoint regression models with SIE. Path analyses and null model analyses also did not detect an SIE. We conclude that, for the robust detection of SIE, future study should carefully take all these methodological pitfalls into account.     

Re‐approaching the small island effect

Aim To propose a new approach to the small island effect (SIE) and a simple mathematical procedure for the estimation of its upper limit. The main feature of the SIE is that below an upper size threshold an increase of species number with increase of area in small islands is not observed. Location Species richness patterns from different taxa and insular systems are analysed. Methods Sixteen different data sets from 12 studies are analysed. Path analysis was used for the estimation of the upper limit of the SIE. We studied each data set in order to detect whether there was a certain island size under which the direct effects of area were eliminated. This detection was carried out through the sequential exclusion of islands from the largest to the smallest. For the cases where an SIE was detected, a log‐log plot of species number against area is presented. The relationships between habitat diversity, species number and area are studied within the limits of the SIE. In previous studies only area was used for the detection of the SIE, whereas we also encompass habitat diversity, a parameter with well documented influence on species richness, especially at small scales. Results An SIE was detected in six out of the 16 studied cases. The upper limit of the SIE varies, depending on the characteristics of the taxon and the archipelago under study. In general, the values of the upper limit of the SIE calculated according to the approach undertaken in our study differ from the values calculated in previous studies. Main conclusions Although the classical species–area models have been used to estimate the upper limit of the SIE, we propose that the detection of this phenomenon should be undertaken independently from the species–area relationship, so that the net effects of area are calculated excluding the surrogate action of area on other variables, such as environmental heterogeneity. The SIE appears when and where area ceases to influence species richness directly. There are two distinct SIE patterns: (1) the classical SIE where both the direct and indirect effects of area are eliminated and (2) the cryptic SIE where area affects species richness indirectly. Our approach offers the opportunity of studying the different factors influencing biodiversity on small scales more accurately. The SIE cannot be considered a general pattern with fixed behaviour that can be described by the same model for different island groups and taxa. The SIE should be recognized as a genuine but idiosyncratic phenomenon.     

陆地生境岛屿藓类植物小岛屿效应驱动因素分析——以太行山脉中段山顶为例

小岛屿效应描述了种-面积关系的一种特殊现象,是当前生物地理学和生物多样性研究理论框架的重要组成部分。随着气候变暖,山顶物种的生存受到威胁,然而以山顶生境岛屿为载体对小岛屿效应的研究还十分缺乏。该研究以太行山脉中段19个面积0.06–801.58km²的山顶生境岛屿为研究区,在2019–2021年的夏秋季对藓类进行调查。共记录到藓类131种,隶属于23科68属。采用6种种-面积关系回归模型,分别检测了所有藓和6个常见藓科是否存在小岛屿效应。根据小岛屿效应形成机制的生境多样性假说、灭亡假说和营养补给假说,选择了岛屿高度、温度年变化范围和单位面积净初级生产力作为变量,对小岛屿效应的驱动因素进行分析。在各类群组中,使用多元线性回归和变差分解分别评估上述3个变量对物种丰富度变化的线性影响。首先使用5个面积最小的岛屿进行分析,计算出3个变量对物种丰富度变化的贡献,然后以迭代的方式逐次加入面积更大的1个岛屿,并再次进行变差分解分析。最后使用广义线性回归分析了3个变量对物种丰富度变化的贡献在迭代过程中的变化趋势。结果显示,所有藓和6个常见藓科均存在小岛屿效应,其面积阈值分布在0....     

Detecting the small island effect and nestedness of herpetofauna of the West Indies

To detect the small island effect (SIE) and nestedness patterns of herpetofauna of the West Indies, we derived and updated data on the presence/absence of herpetofauna in this region from recently published reviews. We applied regression‐based analyses, including linear regression and piecewise regressions with two and three segments, to detect the SIE and then used the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) as a criterion to select the best model. We used the NODF (a nestedness metric based on overlap and decreasing fill) to quantify nestedness and employed two null models to determine significance. Moreover, a random sampling effort was made to infer about the degree of nestedness at portions of the entire community. We found piecewise regression with three segments performed best, suggesting the species–area relationships possess three different patterns that resulted from two area thresholds: a first one, delimiting the SIE, and a second one, delimiting evolutionary processes. We also found that taxa with lower resource requirement, higher dispersal ability, and stronger adaptation to the environment generally displayed lower corresponding threshold values, indicating superior taxonomic groups could earlier end the SIE period and start in situ speciation as the increase of island size. Moreover, the traditional two‐segment piecewise regression method may cause poor estimations for both slope and threshold value of the SIE. Therefore, we suggest previous SIE detection works that conducted by two‐segment piecewise regression method, ignoring the possibility of three segments, need to be reanalyzed. Antinestedness occurred in the entire system, whereas high degree of nestedness could still occur in portions within the region. Nestedness may still be applicable to conservation planning at portions even if it is antinested at the regional scale. However, nestedness may not be applicable to conservation planning at the regional scale even if nestedness does exist among sampling islands from a portion.     

Correlation between the green‐island phenotype and Wolbachia infections during the evolutionary diversification of Gracillariidae leaf‐mining moths

Internally feeding herbivorous insects such as leaf miners have developed the ability to manipulate the physiology of their host plants in a way to best meet their metabolic needs and compensate for variation in food nutritional composition. For instance, some leaf miners can induce green‐islands on yellow leaves in autumn, which are characterized by photosynthetically active green patches in otherwise senescing leaves. It has been shown that endosymbionts, and most likely bacteria of the genus Wolbachia, play an important role in green‐island induction in the apple leaf‐mining moth Phyllonorycter blancardella. However, it is currently not known how widespread is this moth‐Wolbachia‐plant interaction. Here, we studied the co‐occurrence between Wolbachia and the green‐island phenotype in 133 moth specimens belonging to 74 species of Lepidoptera including 60 Gracillariidae leaf miners. Using a combination of molecular phylogenies and ecological data (occurrence of green‐islands), we show that the acquisitions of the green‐island phenotype and Wolbachia infections have been associated through the evolutionary diversification of Gracillariidae. We also found intraspecific variability in both green‐island formation and Wolbachia infection, with some species being able to form green‐islands without being infected by Wolbachia. In addition, Wolbachia variants belonging to both A and B supergroups were found to be associated with green‐island phenotype suggesting several independent origins of green‐island induction. This study opens new prospects and raises new questions about the ecology and evolution of the tripartite association between Wolbachia, leaf miners, and their host plants.     

Dung beetle assemblages on tropical land‐bridge islands: small island effect and vulnerable species

Aim Using dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae) in a tropical land‐bridge island system, we test for the small island effect (SIE) in the species–area relationship and evaluate its effects on species richness and community composition. We also examine the determinants of species richness across island size and investigate the traits of dung beetle species in relation to their local extinction vulnerability following forest fragmentation. Location Lake Kenyir, a hydroelectric reservoir in north‐eastern Peninsular Malaysia. Methods We sampled dung beetles using human dung baited pitfall traps on 24 land‐bridge islands and three mainland sites. We used regression tree analyses to test for the SIE, as well as species traits related to local rarity, as an indication of extinction vulnerability. We employed generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine determinants for species richness at different scales and compared the results with those from conventional linear and breakpoint regressions. Community analyses included non‐metric multidimensional scaling, partial Mantel tests, nestedness analysis and abundance spectra. Results Regression tree analysis revealed an area threshold at 35.8 ha indicating an SIE. Tree basal area was the most important predictor of species richness on small islands (<35.8 ha). Results from GLMs supported these findings, with isolation and edge index also being important for small islands. The SIE also manifested in patterns of dung beetle community composition where communities on small islands (<35.8 ha) departed from those on the mainland and larger islands, and were highly variable with no significant nestedness, probably as a result of unexpected species occurrences on several small islands. The communities exhibited a low degree of spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that dispersal limitation plays a part in structuring dung beetle assemblages. Species with lower baseline density and an inability to forage on the forest edge were found to be rarer among sites and hence more prone to local extinction. Main conclusions We highlight the stochastic nature of dung beetle community composition on small islands and argue that this results in reduced ecosystem functionality. A better understanding of the minimum fragment size required for retaining functional ecological communities will be important for effective conservation management and the maintenance of tropical forest ecosystem stability.     

Colonization and speciation on volcanic islands: phylogeography of the flightless grasshopper genus Arminda (Orthoptera,Acrididae) on the Canary Islands

Abstract Volcanic archipelagos represent excellent areas to study colonization and speciation processes. The grasshopper genus Arminda is one of many endemic taxa of the Canary Islands. It consists of seven wingless species, most of which are single‐island endemics. We sequenced two mitochondrial (12s rRNA, ND5) and two nuclear gene fragments (28s rRNA, ITS2) to reconstruct the colonization pattern of the genus. Our results are in accordance with a stepping‐stone colonization model from east to west, corresponding to the prevailing ocean currents, but alternative hypotheses cannot be fully rejected. The populations of A. brunneri from Tenerife belong to two different lineages (east and west) consistent with the geological history of the island. It remains to be tested whether these lineages represent different species and whether further lineages exist on this island. The five clades of the four western islands (A. brunneri group) have approximately similar branch lengths. The short internodes between these lineages resulted in a poorer phylogenetic resolution. Specimens from La Palma were genetically distinct and are subsequently described as a new species, Arminda palmae sp.n. Our results suggest in situ speciation on Gran Canaria, which was accompanied by a stronger degree of morphological diversification than the inter‐island speciation processes. The aberrant species A. canariensis has formerly been assigned to a monotypic subgenus Chopardminda, which is now synonymized with Arminda syn.n. based on its phylogenetic position. Gran Canaria seems to be the only island where Arminda species occur sympatrically, although allopatric speciation seems likely due to the long history of volcanism and erosion on the island.     

Invasion of two exotic terrestrial flatworms to subantarctic Macquarie Island

Invasive species are a serious threat to biodiversity worldwide. The relatively simple ecological systems of the subantarctic have the potential to be significantly damaged by predatory species that invade. Two species of exotic, predatory, terrestrial flatworms were first collected in 1997 from two localities only 2 km apart, in the southeast of subantarctic Macquarie Island. The species were later identified as Kontikia andersoni and Arthurdendyus vegrandis. We report here the results of fieldwork in 2004 that established that both species now occupy about a seventh of the southeast of the island which has a total area of only 170 km² and that there seem to be no barriers to further expansion. The island was first discovered in 1810 and so it is likely the species were introduced by means of human intervention within the last 200 years. We provide evidence to show that both species originated in New Zealand and have probably been on the island for ∼100 years giving an average rate of spread of about 10 m per year. Other species of Arthurdendyus have been introduced from New Zealand to the United Kingdom where they prey on earthworms. The quarantine significance of A. vegrandis for Australia is discussed and recommendations made to reduce the probability of it entering Tasmania where it has the potential to become an agricultural pest.     

The development and status of Bt rice in China

Multiple lines of transgenic rice expressing insecticidal genes from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) have been developed in China, posing the prospect of increases in production with decreased application of pesticides. We explore the issues facing adoption of Bt rice for commercial production in China. A body of safety assessment work on Bt rice has shown that Bt rice poses a negligible risk to the environment and that Bt rice products are as safe as non‐Bt control rice products as food. China has a relatively well‐developed regulatory system for risk assessment and management of genetically modified (GM) plants; however, decision‐making regarding approval of commercial production has become politicized, and two Bt rice lines that otherwise were ready have not been allowed to enter the Chinese agricultural system. We predict that Chinese farmers would value the prospect of increased yield with decreased use of pesticide and would readily adopt production of Bt rice. That Bt rice lines may not be commercialized in the near future we attribute to social pressures, largely due to the low level of understanding and acceptance of GM crops by Chinese consumers. Hence, enhancing communication of GM crop science‐related issues to the public is an important, unmet need. While the dynamics of each issue are particular to China, they typify those in many countries where adoption of GM crops has been not been rapid; hence, the assessment of these dynamics might inform resolution of these issues in other countries.     

Patterns of ecomorphological convergence among mainland and island Anolis lizards

Differing selective pressures on islands versus the mainland may produce alternative evolutionary outcomes among closely related lineages. Conversely, lineages may be constrained to produce similar outcomes in different mainland and island environments, or mainland and island environments may not differ significantly. Among the best‐studied island radiations are Caribbean Anolis lizards. Distinct morphotypes, or ‘ecomorphs’, have been described, and the same ecomorphs have evolved independently on each Greater Antillean island. The mainland Anolis radiation has received much less attention. We use a large morphological data set and a novel phylogenetic hypothesis to show that mainland Anolis did not evolve the same morphotypes as island Anolis, despite some island species being more closely related to mainland species than to island species that share their morphotype. A maximum of four of the six Caribbean ecomorphs were found to exist on the mainland, and just 15 of 123 mainland species are assignable to a Caribbean ecomorph. This result was insensitive to differing taxon samples and alternative phylogenetic hypotheses. Mainland convergence to a Caribbean ecomorph occurs only among species assigned to the grass‐bush ecomorph. Thus, the ecomorphs that have evolved convergently multiple times in the Caribbean have not evolved in parallel on the mainland. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that mainland and island environments offer different selective pressures. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 101 , 852–859.     

Assessing the areas under risk of invasion within islands through potential distribution modelling: The case of Pittosporum undulatum in São Miguel, Azores

Non-indigenous plant species have been frequently reported as successful invaders in island environments, changing plant community composition and structure. This is the case of the sweet pittosporum (Pittosporum undulatum), native from Australia, which is one of the most successful plant invaders in the Azores archipelago. Data extracted from recent forestry inventories were used to model and map the potential distribution of P. undulatum in São Miguel, the larger island of the Azores. Current distribution of P. undulatum is related to climate, altitude and some human activity effects. Further analysis of the areas under risk of invasion showed that protected areas are under potential threat, although only a few native forest remnants seem to be threatened due to future expansion of P. undulatum, since the current distribution of these native communities has been reduced due to clearing and competition with invasive plants. We discuss the threats that any further expansion of the species will represent for low-altitude native forests, as well as the utility of species distribution models in the assessment of the areas under risk of invasion.