A cross‐system meta‐analysis reveals coupled predation effects on prey biomass and diversity

Predator diversity and abundance are under strong human pressure in all types of ecosystems. Whereas predator potentially control standing biomass and species interactions in food webs, their effects on prey biomass and especially prey biodiversity have not yet been systematically quantified. Here, we test the effects of predation in a cross‐system meta‐analysis of prey diversity and biomass responses to local manipulation of predator presence. We found 291 predator removal experiments from 87 studies assessing both diversity and biomass responses. Across ecosystem types, predator presence significantly decreased both biomass and diversity of prey across ecosystems. Predation effects were highly similar between ecosystem types, whereas previous studies had shown that herbivory or decomposition effects differed fundamentally between terrestrial and aquatic systems based on different stoichiometry of plant material. Such stoichiometric differences between systems are unlikely for carnivorous predators, where effect sizes on species richness strongly correlated to effect sizes on biomass. However, the negative predation effect on prey biomass was ameliorated significantly with increasing prey richness and increasing species richness of the manipulated predator assemblage. Moreover, with increasing richness of the predator assemblage present, the overall negative effects of predation on prey richness switched to positive effects. Our meta‐analysis revealed strong general relationships between predator diversity, prey diversity and the interaction strength between trophic levels in terms of biomass. This study indicates that anthropogenic changes in predator abundance and diversity will potentially have strong effects on trophic interactions across ecosystems. Synthesis The past centuries we have experienced a dramatic loss of top–predator abundance and diversity in most types of ecosystems. To understand the direct consequences of predator loss on a global scale, we quantitatively summarized experiments testing predation effects on prey communities in a cross‐system meta‐analysis. Across ecosystem types, predator presence significantly decreased both biomass and diversity of prey, and predation effects were highly similar. However, with increasing predator richness, the overall negative effects of predation on prey richness switched to positive ones. Anthropogenic changes in predator communities will potentially have strong effects on prey diversity, biomass, and trophic interactions across ecosystems.     

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long‐term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent‐scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole‐eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27‐year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high‐ to a low‐amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid‐1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First‐year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole‐eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.     

Temperature and prey density jointly influence trophic and non‐trophic interactions in multiple predator communities

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Exploitation ecosystems and trophic cascades in non‐equilibrium systems: pasture – red kangaroo – dingo interactions in arid Australia

The exploitation ecosystems hypothesis (EEH) proposes that 1) plant biomass reflects the primary productivity of an ecosystem modified by the regulating effect of herbivory, and 2) herbivore abundance reflects the productivity of plants modified by the regulating effect of predation. Primary productivity thus determines the number of trophic levels in an ecosystem and the extent to which bottom–up and top–down regulation influence the biomass ratios of adjacent and non‐adjacent trophic levels (i.e. trophic cascading). We constructed an interactive model of plant (pasture), herbivore (red kangaroo Macropus rufus) and predator (dingo Canis lupus dingo), a system in which trophic cascades have been suggested to occur, and used it to test the effects of increasing stochastic variation in primary productivity and dingo culling on predictions of the EEH. The model contained four feedback loops: the predator–herbivore and herbivore–plant feedback loops, and the predator and plant density‐dependent feedback loops. The equilibrium conditions along the primary productivity gradient reproduced the three zones of trophic dynamics predicted by the EEH, plus an additional zone at productivities above which the maximum density of a predator is achieved due to social regulation: that zone is characterized by increasing herbivore density and decreasing plant biomass. Culling dingoes produced trophic cascades that were strongly attenuated at primary productivities below which the maximum density of dingoes was attained. Results were robust to uncertainty in kangaroo off‐take by dingoes and to the efficacy of dingo culling, but prey switching by dingoes from red kangaroos to reptiles would weaken trophic cascades. We conclude that social regulation of carnivores has important implications for expression of the EEH and trophic cascades, and that attenuation of trophic cascades increases with increasing stochasticity in primary productivity. Our model also provides a framework for understanding the conditions in which dingo‐mediated trophic cascades might be expected to occur, and generates testable predictions about the effects of higher dingo densities (e.g. by stopping culling or reintroduction to former range) on kangaroo and pasture dynamics.     

Predators and priority effects suggested as potential drivers of microfauna communities in a community transplantation experiment along an elevational gradient

Transplantation experiments are a useful method to identify responses of organisms to environmental change. However, they are typically restricted to single or few species. Our experiment was carried out using entire bromeliad‐inhabiting microfauna communities which were transplanted along an elevational gradient, simulating environmental change acting on the communities. Additionally, we manipulated trophic interactions, i.e. resource availability and predator presence, thus combining abiotic and biotic effects in a full‐factorial experimental design. Using this experiment, we found a strong signal of original elevation in microfauna community structure (abundance, evenness, functional composition) with a shift from amoeba‐dominated to flagellate‐dominated communities with increasing original elevation. Surprisingly, the transplantation of communities along the elevational gradient did not affect community structure, indicating strong priority effects. Predation decreased microfauna abundance and increased microfauna evenness, specifically in higher original elevation and high resource levels. In summary, our results suggest that microfauna communities in bromeliads might be primarily shaped by priority effects and predator presence. However, interacting effects (between predator presence and resource availability, as well as between predator presence and original elevation) highlight the usefulness of studies with full‐factorial experimental designs to understand community‐structuring processes. Bromeliads and other micro‐ecosystems provide convenient study systems for community level approaches that could be used in future studies concerning the effects of environmental change, for example climate change on community structure.     

A review of climate-driven mismatches between interdependent phenophases in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems

Mismatches in phenology between mutually dependent species, resulting from climate change, can have far-reaching consequences throughout an ecosystem at both higher and lower trophic levels. Rising temperatures, due to climate warming, have resulted in advances in development and changes in behaviour of many organisms around the world. However, not all species or phenophases are responding to this increase in temperature at the same rate, thus creating a disruption to previously synchronised interdependent key life-cycle stages. Mismatches have been reported between plants and pollinators, predators and prey, and pests and hosts. Here, we review mismatches between interdependent phenophases at different trophic levels resulting from climate change. We categorized the studies into (1) terrestrial (natural and agricultural) ecosystems, and (2) aquatic (freshwater and marine) ecosystems. As expected, we found reports of 'winners' and 'losers' in each system, such as earlier emergence of prey enabling partial avoidance of predators, potential reductions in crop yield if herbivore pests emerge before their predators and possible declines in marine biodiversity due to disruption in plankton-fish phenologies. Furthermore, in the marine environment rising temperatures have resulted in synchrony in a previously mismatched prey and predator system, resulting in an abrupt population decline in the prey species. The examples reviewed suggest that more research into the complex interactions between species in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is necessary to make conclusive predictions of how climate warming may impact the fragile balances within ecosystems in future.     

Intraguild interactions among generalist predator functional groups drive impact on herbivore and decomposer prey

Different functional groups of generalist predators may complement each other in controlling prey populations; but intraguild interactions, common among generalist predators, may also reduce the strength of top–down control. In natural communities greater alterations to ecosystem function are expected if a whole functional group declines in abundance or is lost. Therefore studying functional group diversity is important for predicting effects of predator loss. We studied the top–down impact of web‐building spiders, hunting spiders and ants, which are highly abundant generalist predators in most terrestrial ecosystems, on prey from the herbivore and decomposer system of a grassland food web. The density of the three predator groups was manipulated by continuous removal in a three‐factorial designed field experiment, which was carried out for two years. We found no positive effect of increasing predator functional group richness on prey control. However there was evidence for strong composition effects between the functional groups. The presence of ants in predator assemblages reduced the prey suppression through mostly trait‐mediated intraguild interactions, while hunting and web‐building spiders contributed additively to prey suppression and reduced the density of herbivore and decomposer prey by 50–60%. A trophic cascade on plant biomass triggered by web‐builders and hunting spiders was diminished at levels of higher predator group diversity. In conclusion, our experiments showed that intraguild interactions strongly influence the strength of top–down control by generalist predators. Among spiders there was evidence for a positive relation between functional group richness and prey suppression but the overall outcome strongly depended on the occurrence of interference, driven by trait‐mediated indirect interactions.     

Climate change‐induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change‐induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change‐induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water‐limited ecosystems.     

Predator diversity and environmental change modify the strengths of trophic and nontrophic interactions

Understanding the dependence of species interaction strengths on environmental factors and species diversity is crucial to predict community dynamics and persistence in a rapidly changing world. Nontrophic (e.g. predator interference) and trophic components together determine species interaction strengths, but the effects of environmental factors on these two components remain largely unknown. This impedes our ability to fully understand the links between environmental drivers and species interactions. Here, we used a dynamical modelling framework based on measured predator functional responses to investigate the effects of predator diversity, prey density, and temperature on trophic and nontrophic interaction strengths within a freshwater food web. We found that (i) species interaction strengths cannot be predicted from trophic interactions alone, (ii) nontrophic interaction strengths vary strongly among predator assemblages, (iii) temperature has opposite effects on trophic and nontrophic interaction strengths, and (iv) trophic interaction strengths decrease with prey density, whereas the dependence of nontrophic interaction strengths on prey density is concave up. Interestingly, the qualitative impacts of temperature and prey density on the strengths of trophic and nontrophic interactions were independent of predator identity, suggesting a general pattern. Our results indicate that taking multiple environmental factors and the nonlinearity of density‐dependent species interactions into account is an important step towards a better understanding of the effects of environmental variations on complex ecological communities. The functional response approach used in this study opens new avenues for (i) the quantification of the relative importance of the trophic and nontrophic components in species interactions and (ii) a better understanding how environmental factors affect these interactions and the dynamics of ecological communities.     

Spatial refuge from intraguild predation: implications for prey suppression and trophic cascades

The ability of predators to elicit a trophic cascade with positive impacts on primary productivity may depend on the complexity of the habitat where the players interact. In structurally-simple habitats, trophic interactions among predators, such as intraguild predation, can diminish the cascading effects of a predator community on herbivore suppression and plant biomass. However, complex habitats may provide a spatial refuge for predators from intraguild predation, enhance the collective ability of multiple predator species to limit herbivore populations, and thus increase the overall strength of a trophic cascade on plant productivity. Using the community of terrestrial arthropods inhabiting Atlantic coastal salt marshes, this study examined the impact of predation by an assemblage of predators containing Pardosa wolf spiders, Grammonota web-building spiders, and Tytthus mirid bugs on herbivore populations (Prokelisia planthoppers) and on the biomass of Spartina cordgrass in simple (thatch-free) and complex (thatch-rich) vegetation. We found that complex-structured habitats enhanced planthopper suppression by the predator assemblage because habitats with thatch provided a refuge for predators from intraguild predation including cannibalism. The ultimate result of reduced antagonistic interactions among predator species and increased prey suppression was enhanced conductance of predator effects through the food web to positively impact primary producers. Behavioral observations in the laboratory confirmed that intraguild predation occurred in the simple, thatch-free habitat, and that the encounter and capture rates of intraguild prey by intraguild predators was diminished in the presence of thatch. On the other hand, there was no effect of thatch on the encounter and capture rates of herbivores by predators. The differential impact of thatch on the susceptibility of intraguild and herbivorous prey resulted in enhanced top-down effects in the thatch-rich habitat. Therefore, changes in habitat complexity can enhance trophic cascades by predator communities and positively impact productivity by moderating negative interactions among predators.     

Predator interactions, mesopredator release and biodiversity conservation

There is growing recognition of the important roles played by predators in regulating ecosystems and sustaining biodiversity. Much attention has focused on the consequences of predator-regulation of herbivore populations, and associated trophic cascades. However apex predators may also control smaller 'mesopredators' through intraguild interactions. Removal of apex predators can result in changes to intraguild interactions and outbreaks of mesopredators ('mesopredator release'), leading in turn to increased predation on smaller prey. Here we provide a review and synthesis of studies of predator interactions, mesopredator release and their impacts on biodiversity. Mesopredator suppression by apex predators is widespread geographically and taxonomically. Apex predators suppress mesopredators both by killing them, or instilling fear, which motivates changes in behaviour and habitat use that limit mesopredator distribution and abundance. Changes in the abundance of apex predators may have disproportionate (up to fourfold) effects on mesopredator abundance. Outcomes of interactions between predators may however vary with resource availability, habitat complexity and the complexity of predator communities. There is potential for the restoration of apex predators to have benefits for biodiversity conservation through moderation of the impacts of mesopredators on their prey, but this requires a whole-ecosystem view to avoid unforeseen negative effects.

'Nothing has changed since I began.
My eye has permitted no change.
I am going to keep things like this.'
From 'Hawk Roosting', by Ted Hughes.

     

Environmental context determines multi‐trophic effects of consumer species loss

Loss of biodiversity and nutrient enrichment are two of the main human impacts on ecosystems globally, yet we understand very little about the interactive effects of multiple stressors on natural communities and how this relates to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Advancing our understanding requires the following: (1) incorporation of processes occurring within and among trophic levels in natural ecosystems and (2) tests of context‐dependency of species loss effects. We examined the effects of loss of a key predator and two groups of its prey on algal assemblages at both ambient and enriched nutrient conditions in a marine benthic system and tested for interactions between the loss of functional diversity and nutrient enrichment on ecosystem functioning. We found that enrichment interacted with food web structure to alter the effects of species loss in natural communities. At ambient conditions, the loss of primary consumers led to an increase in biomass of algae, whereas predator loss caused a reduction in algal biomass (i.e. a trophic cascade). However, contrary to expectations, we found that nutrient enrichment negated the cascading effect of predators on algae. Moreover, algal assemblage structure varied in distinct ways in response to mussel loss, grazer loss, predator loss and with nutrient enrichment, with compensatory shifts in algal abundance driven by variation in responses of different algal species to different environmental conditions and the presence of different consumers. We identified and characterized several context‐dependent mechanisms driving direct and indirect effects of consumers. Our findings highlight the need to consider environmental context when examining potential species redundancies in particular with regard to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, non‐trophic interactions based on empirical evidence must be incorporated into food web‐based ecological models to improve understanding of community responses to global change.     

Direct and indirect effects of predatory young‐of‐year fishes in a dryland river food web

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Predator–prey interactions amongst Permo‐Triassic terrestrial vertebrates as a deterministic factor influencing faunal collapse and turnover

Unlike modern mammalian communities, terrestrial Paleozoic and Mesozoic vertebrate systems were characterized by carnivore faunas that were as diverse as their herbivore faunas. The comparatively narrow food base available to carnivores in these paleosystems raises the possibility that predator–prey interactions contributed to unstable ecosystems by driving populations to extinction. Here, we develop a model of predator–prey interactions based on diversity, abundance and body size patterns observed in the Permo‐Triassic vertebrate fossil record of the Karoo Basin, South Africa. Our simulations reflect empirical evidence that despite relatively high carnivore: herbivore species ratios, herbivore abundances were sufficient for carnivores to maintain required intake levels through most of the Karoo sequence. However, high mortality rates amongst herbivore populations, even accounting for birth rates of different‐sized species, are predicted for assemblages immediately preceding the end‐Guadalupian and end‐Permian mass extinctions, as well as in the Middle Triassic when archosaurs replaced therapsids as the dominant terrestrial fauna. These results suggest that high rates of herbivore mortality could have played an important role in biodiversity declines leading up to each of these turnover events. Such declines would have made the systems especially vulnerable to subsequent stochastic events and environmental perturbations, culminating in large‐scale extinctions.     

Predator–prey interactions in a grassland food chain vary with temperature and food quality

Because species interactions are often context‐dependent, abiotic factors such as temperature and biotic factors such as food quality may alter species interactions with potential consequences to ecosystem structure and function. For example, altered predator–prey interactions may influence the dynamics of trophic cascades, affecting net primary production. In a three‐year field experiment, we manipulated a plant–grasshopper–spider food chain in mesic tallgrass prairie to investigate the effects of temperature and food quality on grasshopper performance, and to understand the direct and indirect tritrophic interactions that contribute to trophic cascades. Because spiders are active at cooler temperatures than grasshoppers in our system, we hypothesized that predator effects would be strongest in cooled treatments, and weakest in warmed treatments. Grasshopper spider interactions were highly context‐dependent and varied significantly with food quality, temperature treatment and year. Spiders most often reduced grasshopper survival in the cooled and ambient temperature treatments, but had little to no effect on grasshopper survival in the warmed treatments, as hypothesized. In some years, plants compensated for grasshopper herbivory and trophic cascades were not observed despite significant effects of predators on grasshopper survival. However, in the year they were observed, trophic cascades only occurred in cooled treatments where predator effects on grasshoppers were strongest. Predicting ecosystem responses to climate change will require an understanding of how temperature influences species interactions. Our results demonstrate that changes in daily temperature regimes can alter predator–prey interactions among arthropods with consequences for ecosystem processes such as primary production and the relative importance of top–down and bottom–up processes.     

Mechanisms of coexistence in diverse herbivore–carnivore assemblages: demographic,temporal and spatial heterogeneities affecting prey vulnerability

Simple models coupling the dynamics of single predators to single prey populations tend to generate oscillatory dynamics of both predator and prey, or extirpation of the prey followed by that of the predator. In reality, such oscillatory dynamics may be counteracted by prey refugia or by opportunities for prey switching by the predator in multi‐prey assemblages. How these mechanisms operate depends on relative prey vulnerability, a factor ignored in simple interactive models. I outline how compositional, temporal, demographic and spatial heterogeneities help explain the contrasting effects of top predators on large herbivore abundance and population dynamics in species‐rich African savanna ecosystems compared with less species‐diverse northern temperate or subarctic ecosystems. Demographically, mortality inflicted by predation depends on the relative size and life history stage of the prey. Because all animals eventually die and are consumed by various carnivores, the additive component of the mortality inflicted is somewhat less than the predation rate. Prey vulnerability varies annually and seasonally, and between day and night. Spatial variation in the risk of predation depends on vegetation cover as well as on the availability of food resources. During times of food shortage, herbivores become prompted to occupy more risky habitats retaining more food. Predator concentrations dependent on the abundance of primary prey species may restrict the occurrence of other potential prey species less resistant to predation. The presence of multiple herbivore species of similar size in African savannas allows the top predator, the lion, to shift its prey selection flexibly dependent on changing prey vulnerability. Hence top–down and bottom–up influences on herbivore populations are intrinsically entangled. Models coupling the population dynamics of predators and prey need to accommodate the changing influences of prey demography, temporal variation in environmental conditions, and spatial variation in the relative vulnerability of alternative prey species to predation. Synthesis While re‐established predators have had major impacts on prey populations in northern temperate regions, multiple large herbivore species typically coexist along with diverse carnivores in African savanna ecosystems. In order to explain these contrasting outcomes, certain functional heterogeneities must be recognised, including relative vulnerability of alternative prey, temporal variation in the risk of predation, demographic differences in susceptibility to predation, and spatial contrasts in exposure to predation. Food shortfalls prompt herbivores to exploit more risky habitats, meaning that top–down and bottom–up influences on prey populations are intrinsically entangled. Models coupling the interactive dynamics of predator and prey populations need to incorporate these varying influences on relative prey vulnerability.     

Plant controls on Late Quaternary whole ecosystem structure and function

Plants and animals influence biomass production and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems; however, their relative importance remains unclear. We assessed the extent to which mega‐herbivore species controlled plant community composition and nutrient cycling, relative to other factors during and after the Late Quaternary extinction event in Britain and Ireland, when two‐thirds of the region's mega‐herbivore species went extinct. Warmer temperatures, plant–soil and plant–plant interactions, and reduced burning contributed to the expansion of woody plants and declining nitrogen availability in our five study ecosystems. Shrub biomass was consistently one of the strongest predictors of ecosystem change, equalling or exceeding the effects of other biotic and abiotic factors. In contrast, there was relatively little evidence for mega‐herbivore control on plant community composition and nitrogen availability. The ability of plants to determine the fate of terrestrial ecosystems during periods of global environmental change may therefore be greater than previously thought.     

Fragment size affects plant herbivory via predator loss

Fragmentation and resultant changes in patch size are predicted to alter species diversity and community composition, yet the consequences of these differences for species interactions are poorly understood. Theory predicts that predators are more sensitive to fragmentation than their prey, resulting in greater predator loss in small patches. Predator loss, in turn, is predicted to 1) increase herbivory rates overall, and 2) cause herbivores to shift feeding from plants that act as refugia to those that are preferred forage. We tested these predictions in an old‐field community using two experiments. The first was a large‐scale experiment that included hundreds of arthropod species in fragments of various sizes, and used goldenrod and switchgrass to assess herbivory. Our second experiment manipulated densities of a focal predator species and a focal prey species to determine if changes in densities, rather than other characteristics of fragments, were sufficient to cause the trends observed in the first experiment. We found that predator densities declined in small fragments whereas herbivore densities showed the opposite trend. Total herbivory mirrored herbivore densities by increasing in small patches, and this mean increase was driven by large increases in goldenrod herbivory but declines in switchgrass herbivory. Experimental manipulation of densities confirmed that herbivores preferentially feed on goldenrod, and that predators depress herbivory on goldenrod but have a negligible effect on switchgrass. Our results suggest that fragmentation alters trophic interactions by causing declines in predator densities and increases in herbivore densities, but that feeding preferences of herbivores may generate unequal impacts among plant species.     

Predator‐driven elemental cycling: the impact of predation and risk effects on ecosystem stoichiometry

Empirical evidence is beginning to show that predators can be important drivers of elemental cycling within ecosystems by propagating indirect effects that determine the distribution of elements among trophic levels as well as determine the chemical content of organic matter that becomes decomposed by microbes. These indirect effects can be propagated by predator consumptive effects on prey, nonconsumptive (risk) effects, or a combination of both. Currently, there is insufficient theory to predict how such predator effects should propagate throughout ecosystems. We present here a theoretical framework for exploring predator effects on ecosystem elemental cycling to encourage further empirical quantification. We use a classic ecosystem trophic compartment model as a basis for our analyses but infuse principles from ecological stoichiometry into the analyses of elemental cycling. Using a combined analytical‐numerical approach, we compare how predators affect cycling through consumptive effects in which they control the flux of nutrients up trophic chains; through risk effects in which they change the homeostatic elemental balance of herbivore prey which accordingly changes the element ratio herbivores select from plants; and through a combination of both effects. Our analysis reveals that predators can have quantitatively important effects on elemental cycling, relative to a model formalism that excludes predator effects. Furthermore, the feedbacks due to predator nonconsumptive effects often have the quantitatively strongest impact on whole ecosystem elemental stocks, production and efficiency rates, and recycling fluxes by changing the stoichiometric balance of all trophic levels. Our modeling framework predictably shows how bottom‐up control by microbes and top‐down control by predators on ecosystems become interdependent when top predator effects permeate ecosystems.     

Predators,fire or resources: What drives the distribution of herbivores in fragmented mesic forests?

Trophic interactions and disturbance events can shape the structure and function of ecosystems. However, the effects of drivers such as predation, fire and climatic variables on species distributions are rarely considered concurrently. We used a replicated landscape‐scale predator management experiment to compare the effects of red fox Vulpes vulpes control, time‐since‐fire, vegetation type and other environmental variables on native herbivore distributions. Occurrence data for four native herbivores and an invasive predator – the red fox – were collected from 240 sites across three baited (for lethal fox control) and three unbaited forest blocks (4659–9750 ha) in south‐western Victoria, Australia, and used to build species distribution models. The herbivore taxa were as follows: red‐necked wallaby Macropus rufogriseus, black wallaby Wallabia bicolour, grey kangaroo Macropus fuligenosus and Macropus giganteus and common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula. Fox control and fire had little effect on herbivore occurrence, despite the literature suggesting it can influence abundance, while climate, proximity to farmland and topography were more influential. This may be because the region’s high productivity and agricultural pastures subsidise food resources for both predators and prey within the forest blocks and so dampen trophic interactions. Alternatively, these drivers may affect herbivore abundance, but not herbivore occurrence. Understanding the drivers of herbivore distributions is an important step in predicting the effects of herbivory on other species, particularly after management interventions such as predator control and prescribed burns.