Setting an optimal α that minimizes errors in null hypothesis significance tests

Null hypothesis significance testing has been under attack in recent years, partly owing to the arbitrary nature of setting α (the decision-making threshold and probability of Type I error) at a constant value, usually 0.05. If the goal of null hypothesis testing is to present conclusions in which we have the highest possible confidence, then the only logical decision-making threshold is the value that minimizes the probability (or occasionally, cost) of making errors. Setting α to minimize the combination of Type I and Type II error at a critical effect size can easily be accomplished for traditional statistical tests by calculating the α associated with the minimum average of α and β at the critical effect size. This technique also has the flexibility to incorporate prior probabilities of null and alternate hypotheses and/or relative costs of Type I and Type II errors, if known. Using an optimal α results in stronger scientific inferences because it estimates and minimizes both Type I errors and relevant Type II errors for a test. It also results in greater transparency concerning assumptions about relevant effect size(s) and the relative costs of Type I and II errors. By contrast, the use of α = 0.05 results in arbitrary decisions about what effect sizes will likely be considered significant, if real, and results in arbitrary amounts of Type II error for meaningful potential effect sizes. We cannot identify a rationale for continuing to arbitrarily use α = 0.05 for null hypothesis significance tests in any field, when it is possible to determine an optimal α.     

Optimal Timing of Disease Transmission in an Age-Structured Population

It is a common medical folk-practice for parents to encourage their children to contract certain infectious diseases while they are young. This folk-practice is controversial, in part, because it contradicts the long-term public health goal of minimizing disease incidence. We study an epidemiological model of infectious disease in an age-structured population where virulence is age-dependent and show that, in some cases, the optimal behavior will increase disease transmission. This provides a rigorous justification of the concept of “endemic stability,” and demonstrates that folk-practices may have been historically justified.     

Is There an Optimal Level of Open-Endedness in Prebiotic Evolution?

In this paper we explore the question of whether there is an optimal set up for a putative prebiotic system leading to open-ended evolution (OEE) of the events unfolding within this system. We do so by proposing two key innovations. First, we introduce a new index that measures OEE as a function of the likelihood of events unfolding within a universe given its initial conditions. Next, we apply this index to a variant of the graded autocatalysis replication domain (GARD) model, Segre et al. (P Natl Acad Sci USA 97(8):4112-4117, 2000; Markovitch and Lancet Artif Life 18(3), 2012), and use it to study - under a unified and concise prebiotic evolutionary framework - both a variety of initial conditions of the universe and the OEE of species that evolve from them.     

Evidence for the Predator Attraction Hypothesis in an amphibian predator–prey system

Many species possess damage-released chemical alarm cues that function in alerting nearby individuals to a predator attack. One hypothesis for the evolution and/or maintenance of such cues is the Predator Attraction Hypothesis, where predators, rather than prey, are the “intended” recipients of these cues. If a predator attack attracts additional predators, these secondary predators might interfere with the predation event, providing the prey with a better chance to escape. In this study, we conducted two experiments to explore this hypothesis in an amphibian predator/prey system. In Experiment 1, we found that tiger salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium) showed a foraging attraction to chemical cues from wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) tadpoles. Salamanders that were experienced with tadpole prey, in particular, were strongly attracted to tadpole alarm cues. In Experiment 2, we observed experimental encounters between a tadpole and either one or two salamanders. The presence of the second predator caused salamanders to increase attack speed at the cost of decreased attack accuracy (i.e., increasing the probability that the tadpole would escape attacks). We also found that the mere presence of visual and chemical cues from a second predator did not affect this speed/accuracy trade-off but did cause enough of a distraction to increase tadpole survival. Thus, our findings are consistent with the Predator Attraction Hypothesis for the evolution and/or maintenance of alarm cues.     

The N Terminus of Connexin37 Contains an ��-Helix That Is Required for Channel Function

The cytoplasmic N-terminal domain of connexins has been implicated in multiple aspects of gap junction function, including connexin trafficking/assembly and channel gating. A synthetic peptide corresponding to the first 23 amino acids of human connexin37 was prepared, and circular dichroism and nuclear magnetic resonance studies showed that this N-terminal peptide was predominantly α-helical between glycine 5 and glutamate 16. The importance of this structure for localization of the protein at appositional membranes and channel function was tested by expression of site-directed mutants of connexin37 in which amino acids leucine 10 and glutamine 15 were replaced with prolines or alanines. Wild type connexin37 and both substitution mutants localized to appositional membranes between transfected HeLa cells. The proline mutant did not allow intercellular transfer of microinjected neurobiotin; the alanine mutant allowed transfer, but less extensively than wild type connexin37. When expressed alone in Xenopus oocytes, wild type connexin37 produced hemichannel currents, but neither of the double substitution mutants produced detectable currents. The proline mutant (but not the alanine mutant) inhibited co-expressed wild type connexin37. Taken together, our data suggest that the α-helical structure of the connexin37 N terminus may be dispensable for protein localization, but it is required for channel and hemichannel function.Gap junction channels allow intercellular passage of ions and small molecules up to 1000 Da. They are oligomeric assemblies of members of a family of related proteins called connexins (CX)² (reviewed in Ref. 1). Six connexin monomers assemble to form a hemichannel or connexon (Fig. 1, top panel), which, in turn, forms a complete gap junction channel by docking with a hemichannel from an adjacent cell. Based on sequence similarities, connexins have been separated into subfamilies designated by Greek characters (2, 3). The majority of connexins are members of the α- and β-subfamilies. Connexin polypeptides span the plasma membrane four times and have three cytoplasmic regions: the N terminus (NT), a cytoplasmic loop between the second and third transmembrane domains, and the C terminus (Fig. 1, middle panel). Structural studies of gap junctions have revealed that each hemichannel contains a ring of 24 transmembrane spanning helices (4, 5). Most topological models suggest that the NT of α-subfamily connexins contains 23 amino acids (illustrated for connexin37, CX37, in Fig. 1, bottom panel) and that of β-subfamily connexins contains 22 amino acids.Open in a separate windowFIGURE 1.Diagrams depicting the relationships between a gap junction hemichannel (top), the connexin polypeptide (middle), and the amino acid sequence of the CX37 N-terminal domain (bottom). Thick vertical lines represent the boundaries of the plasma membrane; the intracellular and extracellular spaces are indicated. The transmembrane (M1–M4), extracellular (E1 and E2), and cytoplasmic (NT, N terminus; CL, cytoplasmic loop; and CT, C terminus) domains within a connexin are indicated.The importance of the connexin NT has been emphasized by the identification of a number of connexin mutants that cause amino acid substitutions within this region and are linked to diseases including sensorineural deafness (CX26, CX30, and CX31), Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease (CX32), oculodentodigital dysplasia (CX43), and congenital cataracts (CX46 and CX50). Among the disease-linked mutants that have been studied, some show impaired protein trafficking to the cell surface, whereas others traffic properly, but show loss or alterations of channel function (6–16). Heterologous expression of site-directed mutants and chimeric connexins has demonstrated the influence of NT amino acids upon channel properties, including transjunctional voltage (V_j)-dependent gating, unitary conductance, permeability, and sensitivity to regulation by polyamines (17–22). Lagree et al. (23) have provided evidence that the NT influences the compatibility of connexin hetero-oligomerization.The structure of the NT domain of a β-group connexin, Cx26, has been investigated through circular dichroism (CD) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) of a synthetic peptide corresponding to part of the predicted CX26NT (24, 25). Based on their data, Purnick et al. (24) proposed a model for the NT of CX26 with an α-helix extending from position 1 to 10 and a critical bend at positions 11 and 12 that was suggested to act as a “hinge” allowing the first 10 amino acids to swing into the pore and block the channel. Oshima et al. (5) have published structural studies of a “permeability” mutant (M34A) of CX26 (26) showing a density within the pore of the channel that they suggested might represent a bundle of N termini acting as a “plug” to close the channel.We have been studying CX37, an α-group connexin that is expressed in endothelial cells (27), which may be important for development of atherosclerotic disease (28) and that can form large conductance channels and hemichannels (27, 29). We have shown that as much as half the length of the CX37NT can be deleted without affecting formation of gap junction plaques, but a full-length N terminus is required for hemichannel gating and intercellular communication (30). These observations suggested that the CX37NT may have a structure that is required for function. Therefore, the present experiments were designed to determine the structure of the NT of CX37 and the importance of that structure for protein localization and formation of functional channels and hemichannels. Differences between our data and those previously reported in studies of CX26 suggest that the structure of the NT in α-group connexins may differ from that in β-group connexins.     

A Protein Extracted from Mouse Sperm That Plays an Important Role in Fertilization

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Genetic Load in Natural Populations: Is It Compatible with the Hypothesis That Many Polymorphisms Are Maintained by Natural Selection?

Recent studies of genetically controlled enzyme variation lead to an estimation that at least 30 to 60% of the structural genes are polymorphic in natural populations of many vertebrate and invertebrate species. Some authors have argued that a substantial proportion of these polymorphisms cannot be maintained by natural selection because this would result in an unbearable genetic load. If many polymorphisms are maintained by heterotic natural selection, individuals with much greater than average proportion of homozygous loci should have very low fitness. We have measured in Drosophila melanogaster the fitness of flies homozygous for a complete chromosome relative to normal wild flies. A total of 37 chromosomes from a natural population have been tested using 92 experimental populations. The mean fitness of homozygous flies is 0.12 for second chromosomes, and 0.13 for third chromosomes. These estimates are compatible with the hypothesis that many (more than one thousand) loci are maintained by heterotic selection in natural populations of D. melanogaster.     

A Mouse β-Globin Mutant That Is an Exact Model of Hemoglobin Rainier in Man

A mutation induced by ethylnitrosourea in a spermatogonial stem cell of a 101/H mouse has resulted in a structurally altered beta-diffuse major globin in one of his offspring. The mutant hemoglobin is associated with polycythemia, rubor, increased oxygen affinity and decreased hem-hem interaction. The mutant haplotype has been designated Hbbd4, polycythemia. Amino acid analysis of the mutant globin has shown that a single substitution beta 145 Tyr----Cys has occurred, and it is proposed that ethylnitrosourea induced an A----G transition in the tyrosine codon (TAC----TGC). This murine polycythemia is homologous with hemoglobin Rainier in man, in which the amino acid substitution is also beta 145 Tyr----Cys and which is associated with similar physiological consequences.     

Mycobacterium marinum Lipooligosaccharides Are Unique Caryophyllose-containing Cell Wall Glycolipids That Inhibit Tumor Necrosis Factor-�� Secretion in Macrophages

Earlier studies have reported a role for lipooligosaccharides (LOSs) in sliding motility, biofilm formation, and infection of host macrophages in Mycobacterium marinum. Although a LOS biosynthetic gene cluster has recently been identified in this species, many structural features of the different LOSs (LOS-I–IV) are still unknown. This clearly hampers assessing the contribution of each LOS in mycobacterial virulence as well as structure-function-based studies of these important cell wall-associated glycolipids. In this study, we have identified an M. marinum isolate, M. marinum 7 (Mma7), which failed to produce LOS-IV but instead accumulated large amounts of LOS-III. Local genomic comparison of the LOS biosynthetic cluster established the presence of a highly disorganized region in Mma7 compared with the standard M strain, characterized by multiple genetic lesions that are likely to be responsible for the defect in LOS-IV production in Mma7. Our results indicate that the glycosyltransferase LosA alone is not sufficient to ensure LOS-IV biosynthesis. The availability of different M. marinum strains allowed us to determine the precise structure of individual LOSs through the combination of mass spectrometric and NMR techniques. In particular, we established the presence of two related 4-C-branched monosaccharides within LOS-II to IV sequences, of which one was never identified before. In addition, we provided evidence that LOSs are capable of inhibiting the secretion of tumor necrosis factor-α in lipopolysaccharide-stimulated human macrophages. This unexpected finding suggests that these cell wall-associated glycolipids represent key effectors capable of interfering with the establishment of a pro-inflammatory response.A key feature of all members of the genus Mycobacterium is a cell wall of unique and complex structure, which plays an important role in antibiotic resistance and pathogenesis of mycobacteria by modulating the host immune system and phagocytic cell functions (1). The mycobacterial cell wall includes essentially two types of lipids, the mycolic acids, which are very long chain fatty acids covalently bound to the arabinogalactan polysaccharide attached to a peptidoglycan backbone (2), and a vast array of extractable lipids/glycolipids (3). The latter include the ubiquitous trehalose dimycolate (TDM)³ and phosphatidyl mannosides (PIM) (4) as well as a vast array of species-specific lipids such as phenol glycolipids (5), phthiocerol dimycocerosates (5), sulfolipids (4), glycopeptidolipids, and lipooligosaccharides (LOSs).LOSs were found and described in Mycobacterium kansasii (6–8), Mycobacterium gastri (8, 9), Mycobacterium szulgai (10), Mycobacterium malmoense (11), Mycobacterium gordonae (12), Mycobacterium butyricum (13), Mycobacterium mucogenicum (14), the Canetti variant of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (15) and, more recently in Mycobacterium marinum (Mma) (16). However, they remain among the less studied mycobacterial glycolipids at a biosynthetic, structural, and functional point of view. To date, only three genes have been experimentally demonstrated to be involved in the late steps of LOS biosynthesis in M. marinum (16, 17), and one gene encodes a polyketide synthase responsible for the synthesis of the polymethyl-branched fatty acid in the Mycobacterium smegmatis LOS (18).LOSs represent highly antigenic glycoconjugates exposed to the cell surface and useful target molecules for serotyping in a given mycobacterial species. Their precise role in mycobacteria virulence as well as in the colony morphology remains unclear (19, 20). Early studies demonstrated that rough variants of M. kansasii, devoid of all LOSs, induce chronic systemic infections in mice, whereas smooth variants containing LOSs are rapidly cleared from the organs of infected animals (19, 21). It was therefore proposed that LOSs may act as avirulence factors by masking other cell wall-associated virulence factors. Accordingly, LOSs are absent in most clinical isolates of M. tuberculosis as well as in the laboratory strain H37Rv. A recent genetically based comparison of the LOS biosynthetic cluster in M. marinum and M. tuberculosis revealed that only about one-third of the genes are conserved between the two species, with the genetic locus of M. tuberculosis H37Rv containing fewer genes (17). Although recent studies suggested a possible role of LOSs in sliding motility, biofilm formation, and infection of macrophages by M. marinum (17), the precise contribution of LOSs to M. marinum pathogenesis or virulence is seriously hampered by the restricted number of isogenic strains deficient in their production and the lack of precise structural data of LOS variants. LOSs from different mycobacterial species exhibit considerable variations in the glycan core. A previous work identified the presence of four major LOS variants in M. marinum, designated LOS-I to LOS-IV (16). Through partial characterization, the structure of LOS-I was previously established as 3-O-Me-Rhap-(1–3)-Glcp-(1–3)-Glcp-(1–4)-Glcp-(1–1)-Glcp. Although all LOSs were shown to contain this common oligosaccharidic core substituted by an additional Xylp unit, LOS-II, -III, and -IV are further substituted by other unidentified monosaccharides, designated X and YZ, which leave their exact sequence largely unknown (16).In this study, we report the identification of a natural mutant of M. marinum, devoid of LOS-IV production, which allowed the production of large amounts of LOS-III and the determination of the fine structure of all LOSs. In addition, the availability of all LOS variants with defined structures has opened the possibility to undertake structure-function relationship studies. These molecules were therefore used in in vitro assays to uncover their potent biological roles.     

Osmostress Induces Autophosphorylation of Hog1 via a C-Terminal Regulatory Region That Is Conserved in p38��

Many protein kinases require phosphorylation at their activation loop for induction of catalysis. Mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) are activated by a unique mode of phosphorylation, on neighboring Tyrosine and Threonine residues. Whereas many kinases obtain their activation via autophosphorylation, MAPKs are usually phosphorylated by specific, dedicated, MAPK kinases (MAP2Ks). Here we show however, that the yeast MAPK Hog1, known to be activated by the MAP2K Pbs2, is activated in pbs2Δ cells via an autophosphorylation activity that is induced by osmotic pressure. We mapped a novel domain at the Hog1 C-terminal region that inhibits this activity. Removal of this domain provides a Hog1 protein that is partially independent of MAP2K, namely, partially rescues osmostress sensitivity of pbs2Δ cells. We further mapped a short domain (7 amino acid residues long) that is critical for induction of autophosphorylation. Its removal abolishes autophosphorylation, but maintains Pbs2-mediated phosphorylation. This 7 amino acids stretch is conserved in the human p38α. Similar to the case of Hog1, it’s removal from p38α abolishes p38α’s autophosphorylation capability, but maintains, although reduces, its activation by MKK6. This study joins a few recent reports to suggest that, like many protein kinases, MAPKs are also regulated via induced autoactivation.     

Scope and Limits of an Anamnestic Questionnaire in a Control-Induced Low-Endemicity Helminthiasis Setting in South-Central C?te d’Ivoire

Background

Schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis are two high-burden neglected tropical diseases. In highly endemic areas, control efforts emphasize preventive chemotherapy. However, as morbidity, infection, and transmission begin to decrease, more targeted treatment is likely to become more cost-effective, provided that comparatively cheap diagnostic methods with reasonable accuracy are available.

Methodology

Adults were administered an anamnestic questionnaire in mid-2010 during a cross-sectional epidemiological survey in the Taabo health demographic surveillance system in south-central Côte d’Ivoire. Questions pertaining to risk factors and signs and symptoms for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis were included. The individuals’ helminth infection status and their belonging to three different anthelmintic treatment groups were compared with the questionnaire results (i) to inform the local health authorities about the epidemiological and clinical footprint of locally prevailing helminthiases, and (ii) to explore the scope and limits of an anamnestic questionnaire as monitoring tool, which eventually could help guiding the control of neglected tropical diseases in control-induced low-endemicity settings.

Principal Findings

Our study sample consisted of 195 adults (101 males, 94 females). We found prevalences of hookworm, Trichuris trichiura, Schistosoma haematobium, and Schistosoma mansoni of 39.0%, 2.7%, 2.1%, and 2.1%, respectively. No Ascaris lumbricoides infection was found. Helminth infection intensities were generally very low. Seven, 74 and 79 participants belonged to three different treatment groups. Multivariable logistic regression models revealed statistically significant (p<0.05) associations between some risk factors, signs, and symptoms, and the different helminth infections and treatment groups. However, the risk factors, signs, and symptoms showed weak diagnostic properties.

Conclusions/Significance

The generally low prevalence and intensity of helminth infection in this part of south-central Côte d’Ivoire indicates that recent control efforts have turned our study area into a low endemicity setting. Our anamnestic questionnaire had low sensitivity and specificity to identify infected individuals or treatment groups.     

Benthic food web structure in the southeastern Chukchi Sea: an assessment using ��13C and ��15N analyses

The benthos of the southeastern Chukchi Sea shelf is typified by high faunal abundance and biomass resulting from settlement of a large proportion of seasonal phytoplankton under highly nutritious offshore Bering Shelf Anadyr Water (BSAW). In contrast, inshore Alaska Coastal Water (ACW) is much less productive. Yet the Chukchi Bight and Kotzebue Sound, located under ACW in the southeastern Chukchi Sea, contain a substantial faunal abundance and biomass of invertebrates, fishes and marine mammals. We examined food web structure to gain an understanding of how a relatively rich benthic fauna with a high biomass can be supported under ACW with a supposedly low flux of carbon to the benthos. We measured stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) values of selected organisms (from zooplankton to fishes) as markers of food sources and trophic position to compare fauna on the shelf under BSAW with that in the Chukchi Bight and Kotzebue Sound under ACW. Relative isotope position of organisms in all three regions was similar, even though some pelagic species within the Sound were depleted in δ¹³C compared to the other regions. We attribute the depletion to the influence of terrestrially derived carbon. We suggest that the hydrodynamics along an oceanic front between the Chukchi Shelf and the Chukchi Bight support the advection of nutrient-rich POC into the Bight and Sound as additional food sources to local production. We conclude that local conditions and multiple POC sources in the Bight and Sound support the substantial population of benthic invertebrates and the fishes, seabirds, and marine mammals that feed on them.