Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging: a method for the application of survival analysis to high-dimensional microarray data

Background  

Microarray technology is increasingly used to identify potential biomarkers for cancer prognostics and diagnostics. Previously, we have developed the iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) algorithm for use in classification. Here, we extend the iterative BMA algorithm for application to survival analysis on high-dimensional microarray data. The main goal in applying survival analysis to microarray data is to determine a highly predictive model of patients' time to event (such as death, relapse, or metastasis) using a small number of selected genes. Our multivariate procedure combines the effectiveness of multiple contending models by calculating the weighted average of their posterior probability distributions. Our results demonstrate that our iterative BMA algorithm for survival analysis achieves high prediction accuracy while consistently selecting a small and cost-effective number of predictor genes.     

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models.     

Selecting a minimal number of relevant genes from microarray data to design accurate tissue classifiers

It is essential to select a minimal number of relevant genes from microarray data while maximizing classification accuracy for the development of inexpensive diagnostic tests. However, it is intractable to simultaneously optimize gene selection and classification accuracy that is a large parameter optimization problem. We propose an efficient evolutionary approach to gene selection from microarray data which can be combined with the optimal design of various multiclass classifiers. The proposed method (named GeneSelect) consists of three parts which are fully cooperated: an efficient encoding scheme of candidate solutions, a generalized fitness function, and an intelligent genetic algorithm (IGA). An existing hybrid approach based on genetic algorithm and maximum likelihood classification (GA/MLHD) is proposed to select a small number of relevant genes for accurate classification of samples. To evaluate the performance of GeneSelect, the gene selection is combined with the same maximum likelihood classification (named IGA/MLHD) for convenient comparisons. The performance of IGA/MLHD is applied to 11 cancer-related human gene expression datasets. The simulation results show that IGA/MLHD is superior to GA/MLHD in terms of the number of selected genes, classification accuracy, and robustness of selected genes and accuracy.     

HykGene: a hybrid approach for selecting marker genes for phenotype classification using microarray gene expression data

MOTIVATION: Recent studies have shown that microarray gene expression data are useful for phenotype classification of many diseases. A major problem in this classification is that the number of features (genes) greatly exceeds the number of instances (tissue samples). It has been shown that selecting a small set of informative genes can lead to improved classification accuracy. Many approaches have been proposed for this gene selection problem. Most of the previous gene ranking methods typically select 50-200 top-ranked genes and these genes are often highly correlated. Our goal is to select a small set of non-redundant marker genes that are most relevant for the classification task. RESULTS: To achieve this goal, we developed a novel hybrid approach that combines gene ranking and clustering analysis. In this approach, we first applied feature filtering algorithms to select a set of top-ranked genes, and then applied hierarchical clustering on these genes to generate a dendrogram. Finally, the dendrogram was analyzed by a sweep-line algorithm and marker genes are selected by collapsing dense clusters. Empirical study using three public datasets shows that our approach is capable of selecting relatively few marker genes while offering the same or better leave-one-out cross-validation accuracy compared with approaches that use top-ranked genes directly for classification. AVAILABILITY: The HykGene software is freely available at http://www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~wyh/software.htm CONTACT: wyh@cs.dartmouth.edu SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary material is available from http://www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~wyh/hykgene/supplement/index.htm.     

An evaluation of prior influence on the predictive ability of Bayesian model averaging

Model averaging is gaining popularity among ecologists for making inference and predictions. Methods for combining models include Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) model averaging. BMA can be implemented with different prior model weights, including the Kullback–Leibler prior associated with AIC model averaging, but it is unclear how the prior model weight affects model results in a predictive context. Here, we implemented BMA using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) approximation to Bayes factors for building predictive models of bird abundance and occurrence in the Chihuahuan Desert of New Mexico. We examined how model predictive ability differed across four prior model weights, and how averaged coefficient estimates, standard errors and coefficients’ posterior probabilities varied for 16 bird species. We also compared the predictive ability of BMA models to a best single-model approach. Overall, Occam’s prior of parsimony provided the best predictive models. In general, the Kullback–Leibler prior, however, favored complex models of lower predictive ability. BMA performed better than a best single-model approach independently of the prior model weight for 6 out of 16 species. For 6 other species, the choice of the prior model weight affected whether BMA was better than the best single-model approach. Our results demonstrate that parsimonious priors may be favorable over priors that favor complexity for making predictions. The approach we present has direct applications in ecology for better predicting patterns of species’ abundance and occurrence.     

Integrating external biological knowledge in the construction of regulatory networks from time-series expression data

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Inference about regulatory networks from high-throughput genomics data is of great interest in systems biology. We present a Bayesian approach to infer gene regulatory networks from time series expression data by integrating various types of biological knowledge. RESULTS: We formulate network construction as a series of variable selection problems and use linear regression to model the data. Our method summarizes additional data sources with an informative prior probability distribution over candidate regression models. We extend the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) variable selection method to select regulators in the regression framework. We summarize the external biological knowledge by an informative prior probability distribution over the candidate regression models. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate our method on simulated data and a set of time-series microarray experiments measuring the effect of a drug perturbation on gene expression levels, and show that it outperforms leading regression-based methods in the literature.     

Accurate and robust gene selection for disease classification using a simple statistic

Discrimination of disease patients based on gene expression data is a crucial problem in clinical area. An important issue to solve this problem is to find a discriminative subset of genes from thousands of genes on a microarray or DNA chip. Aiming at finding informative genes for disease classification on microarray, we present a gene selection method based on the forward variable (gene) selection method (FSM) and show, using typical public microarray datasets, that our method can extract a small set of genes being crucial for discriminating different classes with a very high accuracy almost closed to perfect classification.     

ESVM: evolutionary support vector machine for automatic feature selection and classification of microarray data

An optimal design of support vector machine (SVM)-based classifiers for prediction aims to optimize the combination of feature selection, parameter setting of SVM, and cross-validation methods. However, SVMs do not offer the mechanism of automatic internal relevant feature detection. The appropriate setting of their control parameters is often treated as another independent problem. This paper proposes an evolutionary approach to designing an SVM-based classifier (named ESVM) by simultaneous optimization of automatic feature selection and parameter tuning using an intelligent genetic algorithm, combined with k-fold cross-validation regarded as an estimator of generalization ability. To illustrate and evaluate the efficiency of ESVM, a typical application to microarray classification using 11 multi-class datasets is adopted. By considering model uncertainty, a frequency-based technique by voting on multiple sets of potentially informative features is used to identify the most effective subset of genes. It is shown that ESVM can obtain a high accuracy of 96.88% with a small number 10.0 of selected genes using 10-fold cross-validation for the 11 datasets averagely. The merits of ESVM are three-fold: (1) automatic feature selection and parameter setting embedded into ESVM can advance prediction abilities, compared to traditional SVMs; (2) ESVM can serve not only as an accurate classifier but also as an adaptive feature extractor; (3) ESVM is developed as an efficient tool so that various SVMs can be used conveniently as the core of ESVM for bioinformatics problems.     

Biomarker discovery across annotated and unannotated microarray datasets using semi-supervised learning

The growing body of DNA microarray data has the potential to advance our understanding of the molecular basis of disease. However annotating microarray datasets with clinically useful information is not always possible, as this often requires access to detailed patient records. In this study we introduce GLAD, a new Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) method for combining independent annotated datasets and unannotated datasets with the aim of identifying more robust sample classifiers. In our method, independent models are developed using subsets of genes for the annotated and unannotated datasets. These models are evaluated according to a scoring function that incorporates terms for classification accuracy on annotated data, and relative cluster separation in unannotated data. Improved models are iteratively generated using a genetic algorithm feature selection technique. Our results show that the addition of unannotated data into training, significantly improves classifier robustness.     

An Integrated Approach for Identifying Wrongly Labelled Samples When Performing Classification in Microarray Data

Background

Using hybrid approach for gene selection and classification is common as results obtained are generally better than performing the two tasks independently. Yet, for some microarray datasets, both classification accuracy and stability of gene sets obtained still have rooms for improvement. This may be due to the presence of samples with wrong class labels (i.e. outliers). Outlier detection algorithms proposed so far are either not suitable for microarray data, or only solve the outlier detection problem on their own.

Results

We tackle the outlier detection problem based on a previously proposed Multiple-Filter-Multiple-Wrapper (MFMW) model, which was demonstrated to yield promising results when compared to other hybrid approaches (Leung and Hung, 2010). To incorporate outlier detection and overcome limitations of the existing MFMW model, three new features are introduced in our proposed MFMW-outlier approach: 1) an unbiased external Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation framework is developed to replace internal cross-validation in the previous MFMW model; 2) wrongly labeled samples are identified within the MFMW-outlier model; and 3) a stable set of genes is selected using an L1-norm SVM that removes any redundant genes present. Six binary-class microarray datasets were tested. Comparing with outlier detection studies on the same datasets, MFMW-outlier could detect all the outliers found in the original paper (for which the data was provided for analysis), and the genes selected after outlier removal were proven to have biological relevance. We also compared MFMW-outlier with PRAPIV (Zhang et al., 2006) based on same synthetic datasets. MFMW-outlier gave better average precision and recall values on three different settings. Lastly, artificially flipped microarray datasets were created by removing our detected outliers and flipping some of the remaining samples'' labels. Almost all the ‘wrong’ (artificially flipped) samples were detected, suggesting that MFMW-outlier was sufficiently powerful to detect outliers in high-dimensional microarray datasets.     

Joint inference of microsatellite mutation models, population history and genealogies using transdimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We provide a framework for Bayesian coalescent inference from microsatellite data that enables inference of population history parameters averaged over microsatellite mutation models. To achieve this we first implemented a rich family of microsatellite mutation models and related components in the software package BEAST. BEAST is a powerful tool that performs Bayesian MCMC analysis on molecular data to make coalescent and evolutionary inferences. Our implementation permits the application of existing nonparametric methods to microsatellite data. The implemented microsatellite models are based on the replication slippage mechanism and focus on three properties of microsatellite mutation: length dependency of mutation rate, mutational bias toward expansion or contraction, and number of repeat units changed in a single mutation event. We develop a new model that facilitates microsatellite model averaging and Bayesian model selection by transdimensional MCMC. With Bayesian model averaging, the posterior distributions of population history parameters are integrated across a set of microsatellite models and thus account for model uncertainty. Simulated data are used to evaluate our method in terms of accuracy and precision of estimation and also identification of the true mutation model. Finally we apply our method to a red colobus monkey data set as an example.     

Gene Features Selection for Three-Class Disease Classification via Multiple Orthogonal Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis and S-Plot Using Microarray Data

Motivation

DNA microarray analysis is characterized by obtaining a large number of gene variables from a small number of observations. Cluster analysis is widely used to analyze DNA microarray data to make classification and diagnosis of disease. Because there are so many irrelevant and insignificant genes in a dataset, a feature selection approach must be employed in data analysis. The performance of cluster analysis of this high-throughput data depends on whether the feature selection approach chooses the most relevant genes associated with disease classes.

Results

Here we proposed a new method using multiple Orthogonal Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (mOPLS-DA) models and S-plots to select the most relevant genes to conduct three-class disease classification and prediction. We tested our method using Golub’s leukemia microarray data. For three classes with subtypes, we proposed hierarchical orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) models and S-plots to select features for two main classes and their subtypes. For three classes in parallel, we employed three OPLS-DA models and S-plots to choose marker genes for each class. The power of feature selection to classify and predict three-class disease was evaluated using cluster analysis. Further, the general performance of our method was tested using four public datasets and compared with those of four other feature selection methods. The results revealed that our method effectively selected the most relevant features for disease classification and prediction, and its performance was better than that of the other methods.     

Differential prioritization between relevance and redundancy in correlation-based feature selection techniques for multiclass gene expression data

Background  

Due to the large number of genes in a typical microarray dataset, feature selection looks set to play an important role in reducing noise and computational cost in gene expression-based tissue classification while improving accuracy at the same time. Surprisingly, this does not appear to be the case for all multiclass microarray datasets. The reason is that many feature selection techniques applied on microarray datasets are either rank-based and hence do not take into account correlations between genes, or are wrapper-based, which require high computational cost, and often yield difficult-to-reproduce results. In studies where correlations between genes are considered, attempts to establish the merit of the proposed techniques are hampered by evaluation procedures which are less than meticulous, resulting in overly optimistic estimates of accuracy.     

A comparative study of feature selection and multiclass classification methods for tissue classification based on gene expression

This paper studies the problem of building multiclass classifiers for tissue classification based on gene expression. The recent development of microarray technologies has enabled biologists to quantify gene expression of tens of thousands of genes in a single experiment. Biologists have begun collecting gene expression for a large number of samples. One of the urgent issues in the use of microarray data is to develop methods for characterizing samples based on their gene expression. The most basic step in the research direction is binary sample classification, which has been studied extensively over the past few years. This paper investigates the next step-multiclass classification of samples based on gene expression. The characteristics of expression data (e.g. large number of genes with small sample size) makes the classification problem more challenging. The process of building multiclass classifiers is divided into two components: (i) selection of the features (i.e. genes) to be used for training and testing and (ii) selection of the classification method. This paper compares various feature selection methods as well as various state-of-the-art classification methods on various multiclass gene expression datasets. Our study indicates that multiclass classification problem is much more difficult than the binary one for the gene expression datasets. The difficulty lies in the fact that the data are of high dimensionality and that the sample size is small. The classification accuracy appears to degrade very rapidly as the number of classes increases. In particular, the accuracy was very low regardless of the choices of the methods for large-class datasets (e.g. NCI60 and GCM). While increasing the number of samples is a plausible solution to the problem of accuracy degradation, it is important to develop algorithms that are able to analyze effectively multiple-class expression data for these special datasets.     

Bayesian model averaging for evaluation of candidate gene effects

Statistical assessment of candidate gene effects can be viewed as a problem of variable selection and model comparison. Given a certain number of genes to be considered, many possible models may fit to the data well, each including a specific set of gene effects and possibly their interactions. The question arises as to which of these models is most plausible. Inference about candidate gene effects based on a specific model ignores uncertainty about model choice. Here, a Bayesian model averaging approach is proposed for evaluation of candidate gene effects. The method is implemented through simultaneous sampling of multiple models. By averaging over a set of competing models, the Bayesian model averaging approach incorporates model uncertainty into inferences about candidate gene effects. Features of the method are demonstrated using a simulated data set with ten candidate genes under consideration.     

Multiclass cancer classification by support vector machines with class-wise optimized genes and probability estimates

We investigate the multiclass classification of cancer microarray samples. In contrast to classification of two cancer types from gene expression data, multiclass classification of more than two cancer types are relatively hard and less studied problem. We used class-wise optimized genes with corresponding one-versus-all support vector machine (OVA-SVM) classifier to maximize the utilization of selected genes. Final prediction was made by using probability scores from all classifiers. We used three different methods of estimating probability from decision value. Among the three probability methods, Platt's approach was more consistent, whereas, isotonic approach performed better for datasets with unequal proportion of samples in different classes. Probability based decision does not only gives true and fair comparison between different one-versus-all (OVA) classifiers but also gives the possibility of using them for any post analysis. Several ensemble experiments, an example of post analysis, of the three probability methods were implemented to study their effect in improving the classification accuracy. We observe that ensemble did help in improving the predictive accuracy of cancer data sets especially involving unbalanced samples. Four-fold external stratified cross-validation experiment was performed on the six multiclass cancer datasets to obtain unbiased estimates of prediction accuracies. Analysis of class-wise frequently selected genes on two cancer datasets demonstrated that the approach was able to select important and relevant genes consistent to literature. This study demonstrates successful implementation of the framework of class-wise feature selection and multiclass classification for prediction of cancer subtypes on six datasets.     

A TRIZ-inspired bat algorithm for gene selection in cancer classification

Gene expression data are expected to make a great contribution in the producing of efficient cancer diagnosis and prognosis. Gene expression data are coded by large measured genes, and only of a few number of them carry precious information for different classes of samples. Recently, several researchers proposed gene selection methods based on metaheuristic algorithms for analysing and interpreting gene expression data. However, due to large number of selected genes with limited number of patient's samples and complex interaction between genes, many gene selection methods experienced challenges in order to approach the most relevant and reliable genes. Hence, in this paper, a hybrid filter/wrapper, called rMRMR-MBA is proposed for gene selection problem. In this method, robust Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevancy (rMRMR) as filter to select the most promising genes and an modified bat algorithm (MBA) as search engine in wrapper approach is proposed to identify a small set of informative genes. The performance of the proposed method has been evaluated using ten gene expression datasets. For performance evaluation, MBA is evaluated by studying the convergence behaviour of MBA with and without TRIZ optimisation operators. For comparative evaluation, the results of the proposed rMRMR-MBA were compared against ten state-of-arts methods using the same datasets. The comparative study demonstrates that the proposed method produced better results in terms of classification accuracy and number of selected genes in two out of ten datasets and competitive results on the remaining datasets. In a nutshell, the proposed method is able to produce very promising results with high classification accuracy which can be considered a promising contribution for gene selection domain.     

Identifying Genes Relevant to Specific Biological Conditions in Time Course Microarray Experiments

Microarrays have been useful in understanding various biological processes by allowing the simultaneous study of the expression of thousands of genes. However, the analysis of microarray data is a challenging task. One of the key problems in microarray analysis is the classification of unknown expression profiles. Specifically, the often large number of non-informative genes on the microarray adversely affects the performance and efficiency of classification algorithms. Furthermore, the skewed ratio of sample to variable poses a risk of overfitting. Thus, in this context, feature selection methods become crucial to select relevant genes and, hence, improve classification accuracy. In this study, we investigated feature selection methods based on gene expression profiles and protein interactions. We found that in our setup, the addition of protein interaction information did not contribute to any significant improvement of the classification results. Furthermore, we developed a novel feature selection method that relies exclusively on observed gene expression changes in microarray experiments, which we call “relative Signal-to-Noise ratio” (rSNR). More precisely, the rSNR ranks genes based on their specificity to an experimental condition, by comparing intrinsic variation, i.e. variation in gene expression within an experimental condition, with extrinsic variation, i.e. variation in gene expression across experimental conditions. Genes with low variation within an experimental condition of interest and high variation across experimental conditions are ranked higher, and help in improving classification accuracy. We compared different feature selection methods on two time-series microarray datasets and one static microarray dataset. We found that the rSNR performed generally better than the other methods.     

Hierarchical Gene Selection and Genetic Fuzzy System for Cancer Microarray Data Classification

This paper introduces a novel approach to gene selection based on a substantial modification of analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The modified AHP systematically integrates outcomes of individual filter methods to select the most informative genes for microarray classification. Five individual ranking methods including t-test, entropy, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Wilcoxon and signal to noise ratio are employed to rank genes. These ranked genes are then considered as inputs for the modified AHP. Additionally, a method that uses fuzzy standard additive model (FSAM) for cancer classification based on genes selected by AHP is also proposed in this paper. Traditional FSAM learning is a hybrid process comprising unsupervised structure learning and supervised parameter tuning. Genetic algorithm (GA) is incorporated in-between unsupervised and supervised training to optimize the number of fuzzy rules. The integration of GA enables FSAM to deal with the high-dimensional-low-sample nature of microarray data and thus enhance the efficiency of the classification. Experiments are carried out on numerous microarray datasets. Results demonstrate the performance dominance of the AHP-based gene selection against the single ranking methods. Furthermore, the combination of AHP-FSAM shows a great accuracy in microarray data classification compared to various competing classifiers. The proposed approach therefore is useful for medical practitioners and clinicians as a decision support system that can be implemented in the real medical practice.     

Bayesian variable selection for the analysis of microarray data with censored outcomes

MOTIVATION: A common task in microarray data analysis consists of identifying genes associated with a phenotype. When the outcomes of interest are censored time-to-event data, standard approaches assess the effect of genes by fitting univariate survival models. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian variable selection approach, which allows the identification of relevant markers by jointly assessing sets of genes. We consider accelerated failure time (AFT) models with log-normal and log-t distributional assumptions. A data augmentation approach is used to impute the failure times of censored observations and mixture priors are used for the regression coefficients to identify promising subsets of variables. The proposed method provides a unified procedure for the selection of relevant genes and the prediction of survivor functions. RESULTS: We demonstrate the performance of the method on simulated examples and on several microarray datasets. For the simulation study, we consider scenarios with large number of noisy variables and different degrees of correlation between the relevant and non-relevant (noisy) variables. We are able to identify the correct covariates and obtain good prediction of the survivor functions. For the microarray applications, some of our selected genes are known to be related to the diseases under study and a few are in agreement with findings from other researchers. AVAILABILITY: The Matlab code for implementing the Bayesian variable selection method may be obtained from the corresponding author. CONTACT: mvannucci@stat.tamu.edu SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.