Energy availability, abundance, energy-use and species richness in forest bird communities: a test of the species–energy theory

Aim To test the ‘more individuals hypothesis’ as a mechanism for the positive association between energy availability and species richness. This hypothesis predicts that total density and energy use in communities is linearly related to energy availability, and that species richness is a positive function of increased density. We also evaluate whether similar energy–density patterns apply to different migratory groups (residents, short‐distance migrants and tropical migrants) separately. Location European and North American forest bird communities. Methods We collected published breeding bird census data from Europe and North America (n = 187). From each census data we calculated bird density (pairs 10 ha^?1), energy use by the community (the sum of metabolic needs of individuals, Watts 10 ha^?1) and geographical location with an accuracy of 0.5°. For each bird census data coordinate we extracted the corresponding monthly values of actual evapotranspiration (AET). From these values we calculated corresponding AET values that we expected to explain the density energy use of forest birds: total annual, breeding season (June) and winter AET. We used general linear modelling to analyse these data controlling for the area of census plots, forest type and census method. Results Total density and energy use in European and North American forest bird communities were linear functions of annual productivity, and increased density and energy use then translated into more species. Also resident bird density and energy consumption were positive functions of annual productivity, but the relationship between productivity and density as well as between productivity and energy use was weaker for migrants. Main conclusions Our results are consistent with the more individuals hypothesis that density and energy use in breeding forest bird communities is coupled tightly with the productivity of the environment, and that increased density and energy consumption results in more species. However, not all community members (migratory groups) are limited by productivity on the breeding grounds.     

Genetic effective size is three orders of magnitude smaller than adult census size in an abundant,Estuarine-dependent marine fish (Sciaenops ocellatus)

Using eight microsatellite loci and a variety of analytical methods, we estimated genetic effective size (N(e)) of an abundant and long-lived marine fish species, the red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus), in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The ratio N(e)/N, where short-term variance N(e) was estimated via the temporal method from shifts in allele-frequency data over four cohorts and where N reflected a current estimate of adult census size in the northern Gulf, was approximately 0.001. In an idealized population, this ratio should approximate unity. The extraordinarily low value of N(e)/N appears to arise from high variance in individual reproductive success and perhaps more importantly from variance in productivity of critical spawning and nursery habitats located in spatially discrete bays and estuaries throughout the northern Gulf. An estimate of N(e) based on a coalescent approach, which measures long-term, inbreeding effective size, was four orders of magnitude lower than the estimate of current census size, suggesting that factors presently driving N(e)/N to low values among red drum in the northern Gulf may have operated similarly in the past. Models that predict N(e)/N exclusively from demographic and life-history features will seriously overestimate N(e) if variance in reproductive success and variance in productivity among spatially discrete demes is underestimated. Our results indicate that these variances, especially variance in productivity among demes, must be large for red drum. Moreover, our study indicates that vertebrate populations with enormous adult census numbers may still be at risk relative to decline and extinction from genetic factors.     

Characterising demographic contributions to observed population change in a declining migrant bird

Populations of Afro‐Palearctic migrant birds have shown severe declines in recent decades. To identify the causes of these declines, accurate measures of both demographic rates (seasonal productivity, apparent survival, immigration) and environmental parameters will allow conservation and research actions to be targeted effectively. We used detailed observations of marked breeding birds from a ‘stronghold’ population of whinchats Saxicola rubetra in England (stable against the declining European trend) to reveal both on‐site and external mechanisms that contribute to population change. From field data, a population model was developed based on demographic rates from 2011 to 2014. Observed population trends were compared to the predicted population trends to assess model‐accuracy and the influence of outside factors, such as immigration. The sensitivity of the projected population growth rate to relative change in each demographic rate was also explored. Against expectations of high productivity, we identified low seasonal breeding success due to nocturnal predation and low apparent first‐year survival, which led to a projected population growth rate (λ) of 0.818, indicating a declining trend. However, this trend was not reflected in the census counts, suggesting that high immigration was probably responsible for buffering against this decline. Elasticity analysis indicated λ was most sensitive to changes in adult survival but with covariance between demographic rates accounted for, most temporal variation in λ was due to variation in productivity. Our study demonstrates that high quality breeding habitat can buffer against population decline but high immigration and low productivity will expose even such stronghold populations to potential decline or abandonment if either factor is unsustainable. First‐year survival also appeared low, however this result is potentially confounded by high natal dispersal. First‐year survival and/or dispersal remains a significant knowledge gap that potentially undermines local solutions aimed at counteracting low productivity.     

Geographical patterns of persistence in duck guilds

Geographical gradients of persistence in community structure have been suggested to be causally related to underlying gradients of species diversity, environmental variability and/or productivity. In order to test whether the persistence of breeding duck communities was dependent on any one of these three factors, thirty-three years of census data from the Canadian prairie and boreal forest regions was examined along geographical gradients of wetland habitat variability and productivity. For breeding ducks, locally derived patterns of persistence were generally independent of local habitat conditions. Persistence appeared to be related more to patterns of emigration and immigration in response to climatic conditions (i.e., drought) in the southern prairies than to local species richness, wetland habitat variability or productivity. It is suggested, therefore, that analyses of community persistence derived at small spatial scales may be of limited value if the structure of communities is not regulated by local conditions.     

Natural and released inoculum levels of entomopathogenic fungal biocontrol agents in soil in relation to risk assessment and in accordance with EU regulations

Entomopathogenic fungi being developed as biological control agents (BCAs) may have the potential to spread and become established in the environment. For registration purposes, the risks concerning their persistence have to be evaluated according to EU legislation which requires the decline of BCAs to acceptable background levels unless related risks are acceptable. In order to deal with this requirement, applicants of a BCA need to give information on its persistence and natural background levels. For risk assessors and registration authorities guidance on how to evaluate data on natural background levels of indigenously occurring species (=same species as the introduced BCA) is needed. For this purpose, an overview is presented on background levels of some indigenous fungi as well as persistence data of some applied fungal BCAs. Data were restricted to commerical species. It was found that for the species Metarhizium anisopliae, Beauveria bassiana and Beauveria brongniartii natural densities were relatively low and introduced strains of these fungi decreased gradually in time. Many factors were found in the literature, such as intrinsic, edaphic, biotic, climatic, and cultural factors, that could explain this decline.     

Census methods for White stork (Ciconia ciconia): bias in sampling effort related to the frequency and date of nest visits

Periodic censuses have been widely used to identify the population numbers and conservation status of many bird species. In order to be comparable, a census must be homogeneous through time. However, this requirement is not always possible. For this reason, studies addressing a possible bias in sampling efforts are very useful to correct such errors. In the present work, a standardized periodic monitoring of breeding White stork (Ciconia ciconia) at six Spanish colonies was conducted to estimate survey accuracy. We estimated the percentage of breeding pairs and productivity (number of chicks), i.e., accuracy, detected in each possible combination of number of visits as compared with the results obtained for the whole intensive monitoring, i.e., reality. Our results showed that single visits resulted in lower percentages of the number of breeding pairs and productivity detected compared with combinations of two or more visits. Nevertheless, one visit in a single month (April for the number of breeding pairs and June for productivity) did not show significantly lower results than the rest of the combinations of two or more visits. Early or late visits in the season might underestimate breeders by not accounting for either late-occupied or failed nests, respectively. In addition, the obvious increase in the probability of detection related with the number and the size of chicks is probably the reason why later visits in the season reported the highest value of productivity. In conclusion, the estimation bias presented in this study may be used to adjust sampling efforts in the census of the White stork.     

Agricultural land-use in China: a comparison of area estimates from ground-based census and satellite-borne remote sensing

We compare estimates of total cropland area, paddy rice area, and irrigated cropland area in China from land cover maps derived from optical remote sensing in 1992–93 (1-km resolution NOAA AVHRR) and county-level agricultural census data for 1990. At national, regional, provincial, and county scales, the total cropland area estimated by remote sensing is 50–100% higher than reported in the agricultural census. For topographically flat North and Central China, there is a high correlation between county-level cropland area estimates by the two approaches. For other regions, the correlation between remote sensing and agricultural census cropland area is much weaker. Throughout China, there is only moderate to weak correlation between remote sensing-based and census-bases estimates of paddy rice area and total irrigated cropland area. It is likely that the census data underestimates and the remote sensing overestimates the actual cropland area. These uncertainties in agricultural land cover estimates will contribute to uncertainty in any large-scale biogeochemical analyses.     

灵长类生态学研究方法

目前,国外对灵长类生态学的研究越来越多,研究内容包括种群动力学、社群结构及行为,野生群繁殖行为等。我国的灵长类生态学研究虽然起步较晚,但发展较快。特别是对我     

How reliable are harvesting data for analyses of spatio‐temporal population dynamics?

Harvest data are commonly used as proxy for count data, especially in studies of long‐term temporal and spatial patterns of population fluctuations. However, usually the concurrence of the conclusions based on different types of data is impossible to verify due to the lack of count data. Here, we use annual (1964–2004) harvest and population census data for capercaillie, black grouse and hazel grouse from 14 game management districts covering Finland, and demonstrate some mismatch in the information that these data sets provide. Overall, linear regressions of annual harvest against population count give a reasonable fit, but the slopes are less than 1 in every species. Harvest bags have been proportionally larger in north and eastern Finland than in southwestern Finland, with marked species‐specific differences. Considering population variation, the CV% in the census data (30–50%) is consistently smaller than it is in the harvest data (60–70%). Most importantly, conclusions on the spatio‐temporal patterns of the population dynamics are different if based on harvest rather than count data. In capercaillie, synchrony decreases faster with distance according to the harvest data, while in black grouse and hazel grouse the census data show the steeper decline. In addition, the autocorrelation coefficients in the census time series are higher in capercaillie and black grouse than in harvest data, but in hazel grouse the opposite is true. Finally, the parameter estimates for a second order autoregressive model using different data sets differ, and these differences are species‐specific. Despite the fact that annual harvest is a positive and linear function of annual grouse population density, the pattern of population dynamics derived from the bag data is different from that shown by the census data. This result urges caution in using wildlife bag data as reliable indices of population dynamics. deceased August 2008.     

Unusual forest growth decline in boreal North America covaries with the retreat of Arctic sea ice

The 20th century was a pivotal period at high northern latitudes as it marked the onset of rapid climatic warming brought on by major anthropogenic changes in global atmospheric composition. In parallel, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing over the period of available satellite data records. Here, we document how these changes influenced vegetation productivity in adjacent eastern boreal North America. To do this, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, model simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and tree‐ring width measurements covering the last 300 years. Climatic and proxy‐climatic data sets were used to explore the relationships between vegetation productivity and Arctic sea ice concentration and extent, and temperatures. Results indicate that an unusually large number of black spruce (Picea mariana) trees entered into a period of growth decline during the late‐20th century (62% of sampled trees; n = 724 cross sections of age >70 years). This finding is coherent with evidence encoded in NDVI and simulated NPP data. Analyses of climatic and vegetation productivity relationships indicate that the influence of recent climatic changes in the studied forests has been via the enhanced moisture stress (i.e. greater water demands) and autotrophic respiration amplified by the declining sea ice concentration in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The recent decline strongly contrasts with other growth reduction events that occurred during the 19th century, which were associated with cooling and high sea ice severity. The recent decline of vegetation productivity is the first one to occur under circumstances related to excess heat in a 300‐year period, and further culminates with an intensifying wildfire regime in the region. Our results concur with observations from other forest ecosystems about intensifying temperature‐driven drought stress and tree mortality with ongoing climatic changes.     

A Longitudinal Study of Steller Sea Lion Natality Rates in the Gulf of Alaska with Comparisons to Census Data

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers in the Western Distinct Population Segment are beginning to recover following the dramatic decline that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. Low female reproductive rates (natality) may have contributed to the decline and remain an issue of concern for this population. During the 2000s we found high natality among Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska indicating a healthy population. This study extends these previous estimates over an additional three years and tests for interannual variations and long-term trends. We further examine the proportions of pups to adult females observed on the rookery and nearby haulouts during the birthing season to assess whether census data can be used to estimate natality. Open robust design multistate models were built and tested using Program MARK to estimate survival, resighting, and state transition probabilities in addition to other parameters dependent on whether or not a female gave birth in the previous year. Natality was estimated at 70% with some evidence of interannual variation but a long-term increasing or decreasing trend was not supported by the data. Bootstrap and regression comparisons of census data with natality estimates revealed no correlation between the two methods suggesting that census data are not an appropriate proxy for natality in this species. Longitudinal studies of individual animals are an appropriate method for estimating vital rates in species with variable detection over time such as the Steller sea lion. This work indicates that natality remains high in this region and is consistent with a population in recovery.     

Orchid (Orchidaceae) decline in the Catoctin Mountains,Frederick County,Maryland as documented by a long-term dataset

A 41-year study (1968–2008) of the orchids of the Catoctin Mountains, Frederick County, Maryland reveals that 19 of 21 species have experienced precipitous declines. Four of these species are currently considered Threatened or Endangered by the State of Maryland and another two are considered Rare. Annual census data at 167 sites from throughout the Catoctin Mountains on protected and unprotected lands (private and public) show a loss of three species from the study area, a decline of >90 % (ranging from 99 to 91 %) in seven species, and a decline of <90 % (ranging from 51 to 87 %) for nine species. Each species was analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares Analysis to show trends and document corresponding R² and p values. We tested the hypothesis that this decline is due to intensified herbivory by white-tailed deer. The overall orchid census data is significantly inversely-correlated (R = ?0.93) to the white-tailed deer harvest data of Frederick County (a surrogate for population size), which includes the entirety of the study area. Platanthera ciliaris showed a huge expansion at a single site explicitly managed for this species otherwise this orchid showed a decline similar to the other species. Proper management is critical for the continuation of the orchid species in this study, be it control of the white-tailed deer herd or combating woody plant succession in the case of P. ciliaris.     

Equity in the NHS. Monitoring and promoting equity in primary and secondary care.

Although need is often assumed to be the most important factor in determining the use of health services, there are many inequities in the provision and use of NHS services in both primary and secondary care. For example, existing data from district child health information services have been combined with census data for small areas to show wide variations in immunisation rates between affluent and deprived areas. Purchasers of health care are already responsible for assessing health needs and evaluating services, and the process of monitoring equity is a logical extension of these activities. Routine data sources used to collect activity data in both primary and secondary care can be used to assess needs for care and monitor how well these needs are met. Purchasers and providers should collaborate to improve the usefulness of these routine data and to develop a framework for monitoring and promoting equity more systematically.     

Local Ecological Knowledge and Scientific Data Reveal Overexploitation by Multigear Artisanal Fisheries in the Southwestern Atlantic

In the last decades, a number of studies based on historical records revealed the diversity loss in the oceans and human-induced changes to marine ecosystems. These studies have improved our understanding of the human impacts in the oceans. They also drew attention to the shifting baseline syndrome and the importance of assessing appropriate sources of data in order to build the most reliable environmental baseline. Here we amassed information from artisanal fishermen''s local ecological knowledge, fisheries landing data and underwater visual census to assess the decline of fish species in Southeastern Brazil. Interviews with 214 fishermen from line, beach seine and spearfishing revealed a sharp decline in abundance of the bluefish Pomatomus saltatrix, the groupers Epinephelus marginatus, Mycteroperca acutirostris, M. bonaci and M. microlepis, and large parrotfishes in the past six decades. Fisheries landing data from a 16-year period support the decline of bluefish as pointed by fishermen''s local knowledge, while underwater visual census campaigns show reductions in groupers'' abundance and a sharp population decline of the Brazilian endemic parrotfish Scarus trispinosus. Despite the marked decline of these fisheries, younger and less experienced fishermen recognized fewer species as overexploited and fishing sites as depleted than older and more experienced fishermen, indicating the occurrence of the shifting baseline syndrome. Here we show both the decline of multigear fisheries catches – combining anecdotal and scientific data – as well as changes in environmental perceptions over generations of fishermen. Managing ocean resources requires looking into the past, and into traditional knowledge, bringing historical baselines to the present and improving public awareness.     

Predictors of natal dispersal in great reed warblers: results from small and large census areas

For most species, it is currently not known whether individual characteristics and population parameters affecting dispersal distances within the local population are also affecting dispersal of individuals emigrating longer distances. We evaluated this in the great reed warbler Acrocephalus arundinaceus by analysing data of natal dispersal distances within (1) the local hatching area in southern Central Sweden and (2) the species' whole breeding range in Sweden. The different scales gave conflicting results. Site of birth was the main predictor of natal dispersal distance in the local census area, whereas in the larger census area the dispersal distance differed significantly between hatching years. Previous studies have shown that the recruitment rate of great reed warblers within the local study area differs between hatching years and also that it declines during the course of the breeding season. It was not known, however, whether these relationships reflected variation in survival or dispersal. The results from the present study suggest that the differences in local recruitment rate between hatching years is partly caused by annual variation in emigration rate, whereas the decline in local recruitment rate with season mainly reflects mortality of late-hatched nestlings. Our study shows a twofold advantage of a large census area when studying dispersal. First, predictors of longer-distance dispersal will be revealed and, second, the variation in local recruitment rate can be separated into the two components, survival and dispersal.     

The relationship between productivity and multiple aspects of biodiversity in six grassland communities

Biodiversity is a multifaceted concept but most studies examining the association between the biodiversity of a community and its productivity focus only on species richness. Consequently, studies are needed to examine how other facets of biodiversity vary with productivity if we want to have a better understanding of the distribution of biodiversity across our planet. We evaluated how a number of biodiversity measures (species richness, evenness, dominance, rarity, Simpson’s diversity, and Shannon–Weiner diversity) varied across natural productivity gradients at 6 grassland sites in the continental US. Variation in productivity did not account for a substantial amount of variation in any measure of biodiversity at small spatial scales (≈1 m²) at most sites. When productivity accounted for substantial variation in biodiversity, different measures of biodiversity responded to productivity in different ways. For example, dominance changed in a U-shaped fashion along a productivity gradient whereas richness increased in an asymptotic fashion. Consequently, diversity indices, which account for both species richness and evenness, varied in a hump-shaped fashion along the productivity gradient. Our results highlight that an exclusive focus on the association between species richness and productivity provides an incomplete picture of how a community’s biodiversity is related to its functioning.     

Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years’ data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated for other declining migrants.     

Bereavement and cancer: some data on deaths of spouses from the longitudinal study of Office of Population Censuses and Surveys.

Registration of cancer and mortality after the death of a spouse were assessed using data from the longitudinal study of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS). The study population comprised 1% of the people counted in England and Wales in the 1971 census, for whom data on subsequent vital events were linked with their census records. There was little evidence of an increase in registrations of cancer after the death of a spouse and only a slight suggestion of increased mortality from cancer. For other causes of death there was some evidence of increases in mortality during widow(er)hood. In so far as the death of a spouse is often a very stressful event, these data may be interpreted as providing little support for the hypothesis that stress is implicated in the aetiology of cancer.     

Ecosystem Processes Performed by Unionid Mussels in Stream Mesocosms: Species Roles and Effects of Abundance

Unionid mussels are a guild of freshwater, sedentary filter-feeders experiencing a global decline in both species richness and abundance. To predict how these losses may impact stream ecosystems we need to quantify the effects of both overall mussel biomass and individual species on ecosystem processes. In this study we begin addressing these fundamental questions by comparing rates of ecosystem processes for two common mussel species, Amblema plicata and Actinonaias ligamentina, across a range of abundance levels and at two trophic states (low and high productivity) in stream mesocosms. At both low and high productivity, community respiration, water column ammonia, nitrate, and phosphorus concentrations, and algal clearance rates were all linearly related to overall mussel biomass. After removing the effects of biomass with ANCOVA, we found few differences between species. In a separate series of experiments, nutrient excretion (phosphorus, ammonia, and molar N:P) and biodeposition rates were only marginally different between species. For the species studied here, functional effects of unionids in streams were similar between species and linearly related to biomass, indicating the potential for strong effects when overall mussel biomass is high and hydrologic residence times are long.     

Disaggregating Census Data for Population Mapping Using Random Forests with Remotely-Sensed and Ancillary Data

High resolution, contemporary data on human population distributions are vital for measuring impacts of population growth, monitoring human-environment interactions and for planning and policy development. Many methods are used to disaggregate census data and predict population densities for finer scale, gridded population data sets. We present a new semi-automated dasymetric modeling approach that incorporates detailed census and ancillary data in a flexible, “Random Forest” estimation technique. We outline the combination of widely available, remotely-sensed and geospatial data that contribute to the modeled dasymetric weights and then use the Random Forest model to generate a gridded prediction of population density at ~100 m spatial resolution. This prediction layer is then used as the weighting surface to perform dasymetric redistribution of the census counts at a country level. As a case study we compare the new algorithm and its products for three countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, and Kenya) with other common gridded population data production methodologies. We discuss the advantages of the new method and increases over the accuracy and flexibility of those previous approaches. Finally, we outline how this algorithm will be extended to provide freely-available gridded population data sets for Africa, Asia and Latin America.