Optimizing vaccine allocation at different points in time during an epidemic

Background

Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 began spreading around the globe in April of 2009 and vaccination started in October of 2009. In most countries, by the time vaccination started, the second wave of pandemic H1N1 2009 was already under way. With limited supplies of vaccine, we are left to question whether it may be a good strategy to vaccinate the high-transmission groups earlier in the epidemic, but it might be a better use of resources to protect instead the high-risk groups later in the epidemic. To answer this question, we develop a deterministic epidemic model with two age-groups (children and adults) and further subdivide each age group in low and high risk.

Methods and Findings

We compare optimal vaccination strategies started at various points in time in two different settings: a population in a developed country where children account for 24% of the population, and a population in a less developed country where children make up the majority of the population, 55%. For each of these populations, we minimize mortality or hospitalizations and we find an optimal vaccination strategy that gives the best vaccine allocation given a starting vaccination time and vaccine coverage level. We find that population structure is an important factor in determining the optimal vaccine distribution. Moreover, the optimal policy is dynamic as there is a switch in the optimal vaccination strategy at some time point just before the peak of the epidemic. For instance, with 25% vaccine coverage, it is better to protect the high-transmission groups before this point, but it is optimal to protect the most vulnerable groups afterward.

Conclusions

Choosing the optimal strategy before or early in the epidemic makes an important difference in minimizing the number of influenza infections, and consequently the number of influenza deaths or hospitalizations, but the optimal strategy makes little difference after the peak.     

The effect of streptozotocin-induced diabetes on hepatic hexose transport

3-O-methyl-D-glucose (which is not metabolized in isolated parenchymal cells) was used to characterize the hexose transport process in hepatocytes prepared from 24 h fasted rats. The Vmax and Km obtained were 161 +/- 12 nmol/mg dry wt./min and 39 +/- 4 mM respectively (Europe-Finner GN, 1984, Biosci. Rep. 4, 483-489). Streptozotocin-induced diabetes decreased the Km of the system by 50% to a value of 19 +/- 6 mM without causing any change in the Vmax. Short term insulin treatment of cells prepared from 24 h diabetic rats appeared to partially return the system to normal.     

Effects of streptozotocin-induced diabetes on fetal development of the rat

The purpose of this study was to determine whether or not in rats with experimentally induced diabetes there is an increased frequency of congenital malformations; data in the literature are not consistent on this point. Virgin CD females rats were injected with 40-50 mg/kg streptozotocin (Stz) before mating (SIBM group) or on the first day of pregnancy (SI1). Both SIBM and SI1 females were divided into two groups according to their blood glucose levels: severely diabetic (SD, greater than 300 mg%) and mildly diabetic (MD, 120-250 mg%). Food and water consumption by the control and MD groups were the same, but the SD females developed polyphagia, polyuria, and polydypsia, which continued to increase throughout pregnancy, as did the blood glucose levels. All the MD females mated and carried to term. In SD females both frequency of mating and fertility were only slightly lower than in the controls. All the females were killed on the 21st day of pregnancy. Pre- and postimplantation losses were the same for diabetic and control rats, but SIBM-SD females ovulated less than other groups. Weights of fetuses of SD dams were lower and blood sugar levels higher than those of the other groups. The placentas of SD rats were significantly heavier and there was cystic degeneration of spongiosa. The incidence of major malformations was minimal (approximately 2%) in fetuses of SD females and there were none at all in controls or MD females. In conclusion, our data are in agreement with those of other investigators who have found that rats with experimentally induced diabetes have smaller fetuses and increased placental weight.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Mitochondrial activity in different regions of the brain at the onset of streptozotocin-induced diabetes in rats

Diabetes affects a variety of tissues including the central nervous system; moreover, some evidence indicates that memory and learning processes are disrupted. Also, oxidative stress triggers alterations in different tissues including the brain. Recent studies indicate mitochondria dysfunction is a pivotal factor for neuron damage. Therefore, we studied mitochondrial activity in three brain regions at early type I—diabetes induction. Isolated mitochondria from normal hippocampus, cortex and cerebellum revealed different rates of oxygen consumption, but similar respiratory controls. Oxygen consumption in basal state 4 significantly increased in the mitochondria from all three brain regions from diabetic rats. No relevant differences were observed in the activity of respiratory complexes, but hippocampal mitochondrial membrane potential was reduced. However, ATP content, mitochondrial cytochrome c, and protein levels of β-tubulin III, synaptophysin, and glutamine synthase were similar in brain regions from normal and diabetic rats. In addition, no differences in total glutathione levels were observed between normal and diabetic rat brain regions. Our results indicated that different regions of the brain have specific metabolic responses. The changes in mitochondrial activity we observed at early diabetes induction did not appear to cause metabolic alterations, but they might appear at later stages. Longer-term streptozotocin treatment studies must be done to elucidate the impact of hyperglycemia in brain metabolism and the function of specific brain regions.     

Congenic mapping and candidate gene analysis for streptozotocin-induced diabetes susceptibility locus on mouse chromosome 11

Streptozotocin (STZ) has been widely used to induce diabetes in rodents. Strain-dependent variation in susceptibility to STZ has been reported; however, the gene(s) responsible for STZ susceptibility has not been identified. Here, we utilized the A/J-11^SM consomic strain and a set of chromosome 11 (Chr. 11) congenic strains developed from A/J-11^SM to identify a candidate STZ-induced diabetes susceptibility gene. The A/J strain exhibited significantly higher susceptibility to STZ-induced diabetes than the A/J-11^SM strain, confirming the existence of a susceptibility locus on Chr. 11. We named this locus Stzds1 (STZ-induced diabetes susceptibility 1). Congenic mapping using the Chr. 11 congenic strains indicated that the Stzds1 locus was located between D11Mit163 (27.72 Mb) and D11Mit51 (36.39 Mb). The Mpg gene, which encodes N-methylpurine DNA glycosylase (MPG), a ubiquitous DNA repair enzyme responsible for the removal of alkylated base lesions in DNA, is located within the Stzds1 region. There is a close relationship between DNA alkylation at an early stage of STZ action and the function of MPG. A Sanger sequence analysis of the Mpg gene revealed five polymorphic sites in the A/J genome. One variant, p.Ala132Ser, was located in a highly conserved region among rodent species and in the minimal region for retained enzyme activity of MPG. It is likely that structural alteration of MPG caused by the p.Ala132Ser mutation elicits increased recognition and excision of alkylated base lesions in DNA by STZ.

     

Social behavior in a genetic model of dopamine dysfunction at different neurodevelopmental time points

Impairments in social behavior characterize many neurodevelopmental psychiatric disorders. In fact, the temporal emergence and trajectory of these deficits can define the disorder, specify their treatment and signal their prognosis. The sophistication of mouse models with neurobiological endophenotypes of many aspects of psychiatric diseases has increased in recent years, with the necessity to evaluate social behavior in these models. We adapted an assay for the multimodal characterization of social behavior at different development time points (juvenile, adolescent and adult) in control mice in different social contexts (specifically, different sex pairings). Although social context did not affect social behavior in juvenile mice, it did have an effect on the quantity and type of social interaction as well as ultrasonic vocalizations in both adolescence and adulthood. We compared social development in control mice to a transgenic mouse model of the increase in postsynaptic striatal D2R activity observed in patients with schizophrenia (D2R‐OE mice). Genotypic differences in social interactions emerged in adolescence and appeared to become more pronounced in adulthood. That vocalizations emitted from dyads with a D2R‐OE subject were negatively correlated with active social behavior while vocalizations from control dyads were positively correlated with both active and passive social behavior also suggest social deficits. These data show that striatal dopamine dysfunction plays an important role in the development of social behavior and mouse models such as the one studied here provide an opportunity for screening potential therapeutics at different developmental time points.     

Gastric mucosal calmodulin changes in different experimental ulcer models of rat

It seems that the mucosal CaM content does not play a significant role in the pathomechanism or the regeneration of (experimental) gastric ulcers of rat.     

Protective effect of secoisolariciresinol diglucoside against streptozotocin-induced diabetes and its mechanism

Objectives: Reactive oxygen species (ROS) have been implicated in the development of streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetes mellitus. Secoisolariciresinol diglucoside (SDG) isolated from flaxseed is an antioxidant. An investigation was made of the effects of SDG on the development of STZ-induced diabetes in rat, to determine if SDG can prevent/reduce the development of diabetes and if this prevention/reduction is associated with reduction in oxidative stress.Design and Methods: The rats were divided into 4 groups: Group I, Control; Group II, SDG (22 mg/kg body wt, orally) for 24 days; Group III, STZ (80 mg/kg intraperitoneally); Group IV, SDG in the dose similar to Group II three days prior to STZ and 21 days thereafter. Oxidative stress was assessed by measuring serum and pancreatic lipid peroxidation product malondialdehyde (MDA), pancreatic antioxidant reserve (pancreatic-CL) and oxygen free radical producing activity of white blood cells (WBC-CL). A diagnosis of diabetes was made on the basis of glucosuria and was confirmed at the time of sacrifice (21 days after STZ treatment) by the presence of hyperglycemia. At the end of the protocol blood samples were collected for estimation of glucose, MDA and WBC-CL, and pancreas were removed for estimation of MDA and antioxidant reserve.Results: Incidence of diabetes was 100% in Group III and 25% in Group IV. SDG prevented the development of diabetes by 75%. Development of diabetes was associated with an increase in serum and pancreatic MDA, and in WBC-CL, and a decrease in pancreatic antioxidant reserve. Prevention of diabetes by SDG was associated with a decrease in serum and pancreatic MDA and WBC-CL and an increase in pancreatic antioxidant reserve.Conclusions: These results suggest that STZ-induced diabetes is mediated through oxidative stress and that SDG is effective in reducing the STZ-induced diabetes mellitus.     

The effect of streptozotocin-induced diabetes on pituitary and hypothalamic endorphin equivalents

This study examines the effect of experimentally induced diabetes mellitus in rats on tissue concentrations of opioid peptides in the neurointermediate lobe (NIL), anterior pituitary (AP) and hypothalamus. Diabetic animals were found to have a marked increase in endorphin equivalents, measured by opiate receptor binding assay, in the NIL whereas no change was observed in beta endorphin-like immunoreactivity (beta ELI) or ACTH measured by RIA. These results may indicate the presence of a feedback mechanism and suggest the possibility that opioid peptides may be physiologically important in the maintenance of glucose homeostasis.     

The two chromosomes of Vibrio cholerae are initiated at different time points in the cell cycle

The bacterium Vibrio cholerae, the cause of the diarrhoeal disease cholera, has its genome divided between two chromosomes, a feature uncommon for bacteria. The two chromosomes are of different sizes and different initiator molecules control their replication independently. Using novel methods for analysing flow cytometry data and marker frequency analysis, we show that the small chromosome II is replicated late in the C period of the cell cycle, where most of chromosome I has been replicated. Owing to the delay in initiation of chromosome II, the two chromosomes terminate replication at approximately the same time and the average number of replication origins per cell is higher for chromosome I than for chromosome II. Analysis of cell-cycle parameters shows that chromosome replication and segregation is exceptionally fast in V. cholerae. The divided genome and delayed replication of chromosome II may reduce the metabolic burden and complexity of chromosome replication by postponing DNA synthesis to the last part of the cell cycle and reducing the need for overlapping replication cycles during rapid proliferation.     

Antidiabetic and antihyperlipidemic effect of Duvalia corderoyi in rats with streptozotocin-induced diabetes

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a metabolic syndrome distinguished with glucose increasing in blood, insulin resistance, and hyperlipidemia. It results in decease of millions of people yearly. Duvalia corderoyi is a traditional diabetes and hypertension medicine from the Arabian region. D. corderoyi extract was administered to diabetes rats for estimate its anti-diabetic and antihyperlipidemic activities in Wistar rats were induced using (60 mg/kg) of streptozotocin (STZ) intraperitoneally. The rats were randomly divided into five groups: control, diabetic, diabetic receiving glibenclamide, and two diabetic D. corderoyi-treatment groups. Rats were weighted weekly, and the biochemical analysis were carried out in serum, and liver homogenate samples. Body weight of diabetic rats was lessening significantly D. corderoyi improved body weight, glucose concentration, lipid profiles, hepatic enzymes, urea, creatinine, insulin, and HDL-C. These results are the first to indicate the potential antidiabetic and antihyperlipidemic activities of D. corderoyi.     

Specific inhibition of nitric oxide synthases at different time points in a murine model of pulmonary sepsis

Excessive production of nitric oxide (NO) by NO synthase (NOS) and a subsequent oxidative stress reaction are thought to be critically involved in the pathophysiology of sepsis. Previous studies suggested that NO production by neuronal NOS (nNOS) and inducible NOS (iNOS) is implemented in the disease process at different time points after the injury. Here we tested the roles of selective pharmacological inhibition of nNOS and iNOS at different time points in a murine model of pulmonary sepsis. The injury was induced by intranasal administration of live Pseudomonas aeruginosa (3.2 × 10⁷ colony-forming units) in C57BL/6 wild-type mice. The animals received no treatment (control) or treatment with a specific nNOS inhibitor (4 or 8 h), iNOS inhibitor (4 or 8 h), or non-specific NOS inhibitor (4 or 8 h). In controls, the injury was associated with excessive releases of pro-inflammatory cytokines in the plasma, enhanced tissue lipid peroxidation, and decreased survival. Non-specific NOS inhibition at either time point did not influence survival and was not further investigated. While nNOS inhibition at 4 h was associated with a trend toward improved survival and significantly reduced contents of lung nitrite/nitrate (NO_x) and liver malondialdehyde, the blockade of nNOS at 8 h had no effect on these parameters. In contrast, early iNOS inhibition was associated with a trend toward decreased survival and no effects on lung NO_x and liver malondialdehyde contents, whereas later iNOS blockade was associated with decreased malondialdehyde content in liver homogenates. In conclusion, pulmonary sepsis in mice may be beneficially influenced by specific pharmacological nNOS inhibition at an earlier time point and iNOS inhibition at a later time points post-injury. Future investigations should identify the time changes of the expression and activation of NOS isoforms.     

Biofilm engineering: linking biofilm development at different length and time scales

Biofilms are heterogeneous and dynamic systems. Evaluation of biofilm structure and function at the microscale has been greatly advanced through the application of multidimensional imaging, in-situ identification of the microbial community composition, function, and genetic regulation. Biofilm reactors are being applied for advanced biological treatment processes and their overall (macroscale) operation is well understood and controlled. What is missing is the link between micro and macroscale. In this horizon paper we suggest how understanding the overall biofilm ecosystem will require an integrated evaluation of the different length and time scales.     

Ameliorating effect of chromium administration on hepatic glucose metabolism in streptozotocin-induced experimental diabetes

Chromium has been recognized as an essential trace element that plays an important role in carbohydrate metabolism. However, the molecular mechanisms involved in its action are not clear. This study was undertaken to understand the mechanism of chromium action in experimental diabetes. Streptozotocin-induced diabetic animals were administered chromium as chromium picolinate (CrP) at a daily dose of 1 mg/kg body weight for a period of 4 weeks. It was observed that chromium complexed with picolinate was effective in lowering plasma glucose levels as well as was able to alleviate polyphagia, polydipsia, and weight loss in diabetic animals. Administration of chromium was also found to normalize glycogen content in liver of diabetic animals to near control levels. The reduction in plasma glucose levels by chromium was accompanied by increase in activity of glycolytic enzymes (e.g., glucokinase, phosphofructokinase, and pyruvate kinase) and by suppression in activity of gluconeogenic enzymes (e.g., glucose-6-phosphatase and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase) in liver. Hepatic glucose uptake was found to be increased by chromium supplementation as demonstrated by decrease in Km and increase in Vmax values in diabetic animals. Chromium levels were lower in the liver of diabetic rats when compared with that of control rats. A negative correlation was observed between plasma glucose and chromium concentration in patients with diabetes. The data suggests that chromium supplementation as CrP is beneficial in correcting hyperglycemia, implying that the modulation of the glucose metabolism by chromium may be therapeutically beneficial in the treatment of diabetes.     

The effect of streptozotocin-induced diabetes on phenylalanine hydroxylase expression in rat liver.

The impact of experimentally induced diabetes on the expression of rat liver phenylalanine hydroxylase has been investigated. A significant elevation in maximal enzymic activity was observed in diabetes. This was associated with significant increases in the amount of enzyme, the phenylalanine hydroxylase-specific translational activity of hepatic RNA and the abundance of phenylalanine hydroxylase-specific mRNA. These changes in phenylalanine hydroxylase expression were not observed when diabetes was controlled by daily injections of insulin. These results are discussed in relation to the hormonal control of phenylalanine hydroxylase gene expression.     

Bacterial interplay at intestinal mucosal surfaces: implications for vaccine development

The discovery of 'molecular syringes' in several important gastrointestinal pathogens including Escherichia coli, Salmonella, Shigella and Yersinia, together with a better understanding of M cells and the mucosal immune system, has advanced our appreciation of multistage microorganism-host cell interactions. Recent studies suggest that these molecular strategies could be adapted for the development of modular mucosal vaccines.     

The effect of chronic alloxan- and streptozotocin-induced diabetes on isolated rat heart performance

Cardiac disease is a common secondary complication appearing in chronic diabetics. Isolated perfused working hearts obtained from both acute and chronic diabetic rats have also been shown to exhibit cardiac functional abnormalities when exposed to high work loads. We studied cardiac performance at various time points after induction of diabetes in rats to determine exactly when functional alterations appeared and whether these alterations progressed with the disease state. Female Wistar rats were made diabetic by a single i.v. injection of either alloxan (65 mg/kg) or streptozotocin (STZ 60 mg/kg). Cardiac performance was assessed at 7, 30, 100, 180, 240, and 360 days after induction of diabetes using the isolated perfused working heart technique. No changes were observed in the positive and negative dP/dt development at various atrial filling pressures in the diabetic hearts 7 days after treatment. Alloxan diabetic rat hearts exhibited depressed left ventricular pressure and positive and negative dP/dt development when perfused at high atrial filling pressures, at 30, 100, and 240 days after treatment. STZ diabetic rat hearts exhibited depressed cardiac performance at high atrial filling pressures, at 100, 180, and 360 days after treatment, but not at 30 days after treatment. Control hearts exhibited slight but significant depressions in cardiac function with age. These results suggest that cardiac functional alterations appear in diabetic rats about 30 days after induction and progress with the disease. These alterations may indicate the development of a cardiomyopathy.     

Nonparametric tests for two-group comparisons of dependent observations obtained at varying time points

We propose new tests for two-group comparisons of repeated measures of a response where the repeated measures might be obtained at arbitrary time points that differ over individuals. The tests are almost U-statistics in that the kernel contains some unknown parameters that need to be estimated from the data. Our methods are designed for settings in which response means of one group are strictly greater than the response means of the other group. The tests do not make any assumptions regarding the distribution of the repeated measures except that one of the tests assumes that the repeated measures can be grouped into distinct periods of observations (e.g., around fixed follow-up time points) such that the covariance between scores only depends on the periods the observations belong to and that the covariance matrices are the same in the two groups. The tests are valid even if the probability that a response is observed depends on the level of response provided that the missing data mechanism is the same in both groups. Inference can conveniently be based on resampling. We provide asymptotic results for the test statistics. We investigate size and power of the tests and use them to assess differences in viral load decline for drug-resistant and drug-sensitive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 infected patients.     

Gastric microcirculatory change and development of acute gastric mucosal lesions (stress ulcer)

Concerning the pathogenesis of acute gastric mucosal lesions, gastric microcirculatory change has drawn attention as an important factor. In view of this fact, gastric mucosal blood flow and microvascular structure were investigated in normal and in burn stressed rats. Moreover, alterations in acid and pepsin activities in by morphological and biochemical procedures in order to evaluate the relationship between defensive and aggressive factors of the gastric mucosa. Gastric mucosal blood flow decreased significantly in early period after induction of stress (p less than 0.01). The incidence of ulceration showed a correlative relation with the decrease of mucosal blood flow. Reduction of blood flow in burn was due to opening of arteriovenular shunt and it appeared that this was responsible for mucosal ischemia and congestion. Following the decrease of blood flow, acid output was lower in stress than that in control. Finally, the results of these studies demonstrated the importance of defensive factors. The reduction of mucosal blood flow resulted in the sequence of events that led to formation of acute gastric mucosal lesion.     

Models for analysing species’ presence/absence data at two time points

Species’ presence/absence at two time points is a very common form of ecological data. It is the simplest type of longitudinal study and has fundamental applications in ecological succession, environmental monitoring, and climate change scenarios. Despite its widespread commonality the use of statistical regression to analyse such data has been wanting. We propose the use of the bivariate odds-ratio model to analyse these data. Seldomly used in ecology, it is argued as being suitable, especially within a constrained ordination framework. In particular, this paper presents the constrained ordination-odds ratio framework as a potentially important key in understanding the underlying processes of niche theory dynamics, e.g., local extinction and colonization probabilities can be described in terms of it. Some of the mathematical and statistical challenges associated with more ambitious extensions are highlighted. As examples, with an underlying Poisson abundance model, a complementary log-log link for the marginal probabilities is shown to be more appropriate. We then develop this model based on the zero-inflated Poisson distribution since excess absences relative to a Poisson distribution is frequent in practice. Two vegetation data sets are used for illustrative purposes.