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1.
Systemic disease spread has been suggested as a possible disadvantage of clonal plant integration. As connected ramets have higher risk of being infected, disease should cause a selective pressure against clonality. Since experimental tests of this hypothesis are not easy to perform, we chose a modelling approach, by which we could easily separate different factors influencing the process. We used a spatially explicit model of clonal growth with disease spread implemented and we tested the hypothesis that systemic disease decreases the competitive ability of highly integrated clonal plants when compared to less integrated plants with the same parameters. In contrast to our expectations, the integrator was competitively stronger than the splitter in most cases and it lost only when the disease severity and infection rates were very high. We think that the larger the integrated network is, the better the plant utilises its translocation ability. Even a very small amount of resource sharing greatly increased the relative success of the integrator and larger integrators were competitively stronger than the smaller ones. Our results also indicate that although the same infection rate caused more systemic disease in the integrator than in the splitter population, the disease has only a limited potential to select for the splitter strategy. This is caused not only by the advantages of the clonal integration but also by the fact that there is only a small range of infection rates at which there is sufficient difference in disease impact between the strategies.  相似文献   

2.
E Tawil  J P Mercier 《CMAJ》1984,131(2):115-118
We retrospectively reviewed 224 cases of Hodgkin''s disease, in 120 of which staging laparotomy was performed. The surgical findings in cases of clinical stage I or II disease with supradiaphragmatic presentation or clinical stage III disease did not influence the treatment plans. Of the 64 patients with positive results of laparotomy (splenic or lymph node involvement or both) 51 had splenic involvement; their 5-year survival rate, 57%, was similar to that of the patients with clinical or pathological stage III disease - 58% and 54% respectively. At laparotomy 11 patients with pathological stage III disease were found to have isolated splenic involvement; their 5-year survival rate, 64%, was not appreciably different from that of the patients with clinical stage II disease, 70%; both groups were treated with radiotherapy only. From this study we can conclude that splenic involvement in Hodgkin''s disease has no deleterious effect on survival and that splenic irradiation seems to be as effective as splenectomy in controlling the disease.  相似文献   

3.
For effective management of endangered species it is pivotal to understand why a species is endangered and which key life cycle components are involved in its response to environmental changes. Our objective was to investigate the response of rosettes of the redlisted clonal herb Cirsium dissectum to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, which threatens its populations, and the consequences of these responses for its population dynamics. We constructed matrix population models with demographic data from three populations and four annual transitions and we decomposed the spatiotemporal variation in projected population growth rates into contributions from life cycle components. These patterns were compared with below-ground rosette dynamics in different fields, and with the below- and above-ground rosette dynamics in a garden experiment with nutrient enrichment and competing grasses. The decomposition analysis revealed that increased clonal rosette formation and decreased rosette survival were driving the spatial variation in the population growth rate. Excavating the below-ground rhizome network revealed a higher rosette turn-over in experimentally fertilized garden plots, which not only resulted in increased plot-level extinction, but also in increased spread of the clonal offspring. This supported the observed trend among field populations: rosette formation trades off with rosette survival. Surviving seedlings were only found in areas where the topsoil had been removed. The endangered C. dissectum is vulnerable when its habitat becomes more productive, because this species does not have the necessary capability to build up biomass. Small-scale disturbances such as created by sod-cutting or trampling cattle are essential for seedling establishment and necessary to render the explorative strategy of rhizomatous clonal spread successful.  相似文献   

4.
Studying the natural history of coronary artery disease could provide a frame of reference for prognosis and appraisal of treatment for patients having this disease. We studied a total of 465 consecutive patients with angiographically significant coronary artery disease, defined as greater than 50% stenosis in at least one principal artery, who were followed with medical treatment only from 1 to 7 years. Excluding patients with left main coronary disease, there were 73 deaths, of whom 63 were cardiac. The 5-year cumulative survival rates were 72% for the entire group, 87% for single vessel disease, 73% for double vessel disease and 51% for triple vessel disease. In single vessel disease, patients with left anterior descending artery involvement tended to have higher mortality. In double vessel disease, survival was worse with the combination of left anterior descending and right coronary artery involvements than the other 2 combinations. A history of myocardial infarction was not significantly different from angina in 5-year survival rate. Nevertheless, an abnormal Q-wave in ECG was associated with lower survival. History of hypertension and electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy did not affect survival. While congestive heart failure, abnormal resting LVEDP and left ventricular asynergy were all associated with reduced survival. The left ventricular ejection fraction had highly prognostic value, only 42% of patients survived with ejection fraction less than 0.3 at the end of 5 years after angiography.  相似文献   

5.
This paper documents and attempts to explain the epidemic spread of tuberculosis (TB) in Russia during the 1990s. After several decades of decline, the notification rate of all new TB cases among permanent residents increased by 7.5% per year from 1991-1999 and the death rate by 11% per year. Growth was quickest from 1993-1995 but increased again after the economic crisis of August 1998. Approximately 120 000 new cases and 30 000 deaths were reported in 1999. Case detection and cure rates have fallen in Russia since the mid-1980s; the fall has been accompanied by a higher frequency of severe disease among cases, and higher death and case fatality rates. With a mathematical model describing the deterioration in case finding and cure rates we could replicate the average rate of increase in incidence 1991-1999 but not the precise timing of the observed changes. Other factors that probably helped to shape the observed rise in caseload include enhanced transmission due to the mixing of prison and civilian populations, an increase in susceptibility to disease, and changes in the proportion of cases detected by surveillance. Although our explanation for the resurgence of TB is incomplete, we have identified a set of measures that can be implemented now to cut transmission, incidence and deaths.  相似文献   

6.
Rates of spread of marine pathogens   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
Epidemics of marine pathogens can spread at extremely rapid rates. For example, herpes virus spread through pilchard populations in Australia at a rate in excess of 10 000 km year?1, and morbillivirus infections in seals and dolphins have spread at more than 3000 km year?1. In terrestrial environments, only the epidemics of myxomatosis and calicivirus in Australian rabbits and West Nile Virus in birds in North America have rates of spread in excess of 1000 km year?1. The rapid rates of spread of these epidemics has been attributed to flying insect vectors, but flying vectors have not been proposed for any marine pathogen. The most likely explanation for the relatively rapid spread of marine pathogens is the lack of barriers to dispersal in some parts of the ocean, and the potential for long‐term survival of pathogens outside the host. These findings caution that pathogens may pose a particularly severe problem in the ocean. There is a need to develop epidemic models capable of generating these high rates of spread and obtain more estimates of disease spread rate.  相似文献   

7.
Systemic high-dose interleukin-2 (IL-2) treatment achieves long-term survival in a subset of advanced patients with melanoma. As we reported previously, intratumoral IL-2 induced complete local responses in more than 60% of melanoma patients. This study aimed to analyze the long-term outcome of 72 patients treated in two prior trials. Melanoma patients (49 stage III, 23 stage IV) with injectable metastases received intratumoral IL-2 injections thrice weekly at individually escalated doses (median duration, 6.5 weeks; median total IL-2 dose, 72 MIU; median number of injected metastases, 10). The observed 2-year overall survival rates were 95.5% for stage III patients with cutaneous metastases only (stage IIIB), 72% for those with combined cutaneous and lymph node involvement (stage IIIC), 66.7% for stage IV patients with disease limited to distant soft-tissue metastases (stage IV M1a), and 9.1% for those with visceral metastases (stage IV M1b and stage IV M1c). Thirty patients who reported recurrence of unresectable distant metastases subsequently received chemotherapy in the further course of disease and showed an overall response rate of 36.7% (16.7% complete responses, 20% partial responses). A high total dose of IL-2 and a dacarbazine/temozolomide-based chemotherapy regimen were variables correlated with a clinical response. In conclusion, patients with cutaneous metastasis without lymph node involvement in stage III and with soft-tissue metastasis without visceral involvement in stage IV showed unexpected favorable survival rates after intratumoral treatment with IL-2. Furthermore, the intratumoral IL-2 treatment seemed to be associated with increased complete and partial responses in subsequent chemotherapies.  相似文献   

8.
S M Jackson  I Olivotto  M G McLoughlin  P Coy 《CMAJ》1980,123(6):507-512
Between 1942 and 1978 radiation therapy was given to 362 patients with seminoma of the testis, 40 (11%) of whom had a history of maldescent of either testis. The disease was classified retrospectively according to the extent of the primary tumor, the involvement of the regional lymph nodes and the presence of distant metastases (the TNM system), and the results of treatment were analysed according to the classifications. Among the 275 patients referred for treatment at least 5 years before this analysis the 5-year survival rates were 87% overall, 96% for those with a T1 or T2 (relatively localized) tumour but no evidence of nodal involvement or distant metastases and 62% for the 24 with palpable or distant metastases at the time of clinical presentation. Of the 28 patients in whom the disease recurred 15 were successfully treated. A second primary testicular tumour developed in the contralateral testis of eight patients. The incidence of other cancers was not increased over the expected rate in the general male population of the same age.  相似文献   

9.
2 batches of baboon infected with tuberculosis were subjected to serial tests with human and bovine tuberculin, while erythrocyte sedimentation rates were estimated concurrently. In the very early stages most but not all reacted to human tuberculin while fewer responded to bovine material. After further development of the disease, tuberculin tests remained positive while sedimentation rates were raised by 10-30 mm per hour. By the time early spread had occurred response to tuberculin was absent but sedimentation rates tended to increase. Advanced cases always tuberculin negative but sedimentation rates were in excess of 50 mm per hour. Such animals were always in good physical condition and represented an insidious danger to other animals and staff in contact with them. Clinical examination failed to reveal cases of tuberculosis except in the terminal stages and no cases were diagnosed by radiography. 2 animals died from apparent anaphylaxis following inoculation of both types of tuberculin. Results showed that use of one or other of these tests alone would not have made possible the elimination of infection.  相似文献   

10.
By removing herbivores and promoting increases in macroalgae, overfishing is thought to indirectly cause coral disease and mortality. We performed three field manipulations to test the general hypothesis that overfishing and the subsequent alteration of coral reef trophic dynamics are a cause of coral epizootics. Specifically, we asked whether the presence of macroalgae can influence within- and among-colony spread rates of Caribbean Yellow Band Disease in Montastraea faveolata. Macroalgae were placed next to infected and healthy, adult and small coral colonies to measure effects on disease spread rate, coral growth and coral survival. Surprisingly, the addition of macroalgae did not affect disease severity or coral fitness. Our results indicate that macroalgae have no effect on the severity and dynamics of Caribbean Yellow Band Disease and that fisheries management alone will not mitigate the effects of this important epizootic.  相似文献   

11.
Warming increases the spread of an invasive thistle   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Zhang R  Jongejans E  Shea K 《PloS one》2011,6(6):e21725

Background

Global warming and shifted precipitation regimes increasingly affect species abundances and distributions worldwide. Despite a large literature on species'' physiological, phenological, growth, and reproductive responses to such climate change, dispersal is rarely examined. Our study aims to test whether the dispersal ability of a non-native, wind-dispersed plant species is affected by climate change, and to quantify the ramifications for future invasion spread rates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We experimentally increased temperature and precipitation in a two-cohort, factorial field study (n = 80). We found an overwhelming warming effect on plant life history: warming not only improved emergence, survival, and reproduction of the thistle Carduus nutans, but also elevated plant height, which increased seed dispersal distances. Using spatial population models, we demonstrate that these empirical warming effects on demographic vital rates, and dispersal parameters, greatly exacerbate spatial spread. Predicted levels of elevated winter precipitation decreased seed production per capitulum, but this only slightly offset the warming effect on spread. Using a spread rate decomposition technique (c*-LTRE), we also found that plant height-mediated changes in dispersal contribute most to increased spread rate under climate change.

Conclusions/Significance

We found that both dispersal and spread of this wind-dispersed plant species were strongly impacted by climate change. Dispersal responses to climate change can improve, or diminish, a species'' ability to track climate change spatially, and should not be overlooked. Methods that combine both demographic and dispersal responses thus will be an invaluable complement to projections of suitable habitat under climate change.  相似文献   

12.
J Losos  G Wells  K Elmslie  G Verveniotis  A J Clayton 《CMAJ》1988,139(5):383-388
In the first 5 years of surveillance of reports of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Canada, from February 1982, the Laboratory Centre for Disease Control, Ottawa, was notified of 1133 cases reported through provincial ministries of health that met the case definition developed by the US Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta. Most cases (82.2%) were reported from the homosexual/bisexual risk group. Other risk groups were less frequently represented, in contrast to the experience in the United States, where a higher proportion of cases in drug abusers has been observed, and in Africa, where heterosexual spread is far more common. The presenting clinical picture and length of survival after diagnosis were similar to those reported for other countries. Differences between projected estimates of the number of AIDS cases obtained with polynomial and logistic growth models emphasize the need for solid epidemiologic data on the number of people infected with human immunodeficiency virus, the rates of transmission and the rates of progression to disease.  相似文献   

13.
It is unclear whether autologous immunity could be recruited to restrict the progression of leukemia. Patients harboring leukemia commonly display suppressed cell mediated immunity, which may contribute to their inability to control the disease. Immune response against leukemia is evident in allogeneic HLA-mismatched bone marrow transplantation, implicating the involvement of NK cells. This graft-versus-leukemia (GVL) activity suggests that, if not suppressed, an autologous NK cell response could potentially control acute leukemia that had down-regulated HLA expression. In the current study we assessed the role of non-suppressed autologous NK cells in controlling a syngeneic highly malignant leukemia, the CRNK-16 line, that constitute a major cause of natural death in aged F344 rats. A minuscule dose of 60 CRNK-16 leukemia cells per rat was sufficient to induce 50% mortality rates, and animals that survived this challenge did not show improved survival upon a second challenge. The CRNK-16 line was found to exhibit low levels of MHC-I, and selective in vivo depletion of NK cells nullified in vitro NK activity against the CRNK-16 line and reduced survival rates from this leukemia. In vivo activation of NK cells, employing low doses of poly I-C or IL-12, increased in vitro NK activity against the leukemia and dramatically improved survival rates when treatment was initiated before, but not after leukemia inoculation. These results indicate the ability of competent autologous NK cells to restrict highly malignant non-immunogenic leukemia. Thereby, this model presents an opportunity to study specific in vivo NK-leukemia interactions.  相似文献   

14.
J. C. COULSON  J. M. PORTER 《Ibis》1985,127(4):450-466
Kittiwake growth rates and breeding success are examined in relation to survival between fledging and breeding and to adult survival rates. High chick growth rates lead to increased survival after fledging. Broods of three (the maximum brood size) did not suffer lower fledging success than broods of two and clutches of three fledged appreciably more chicks per pair than did clutches of two or one. On average, the a- and b -chicks in broods of three grew at a faster rate and had a higher survival before breeding than those from smaller broods. Chicks from broods of two with experienced female parents grew at a faster rate than those of inexperienced female parents. Female parents which laid three egg clutches had a higher survival rate than those which laid clutches of two or one. We contend that three egg clutches were laid by higher quality individuals. We believe that clutch size indicates the condition of the Kittiwakes forming the pair. This condition probably has a genetical component, but is modified by environmental factors.  相似文献   

15.
P E Burns  K Freund  A W Lees  M Hurlburt  M Grace 《CMAJ》1979,121(5):571-576
Five-year survival rates for all 519 women with breast carcinoma in northern Alberta in 1971 and 1972 were analysed with the use of data from the computerized northern Alberta breast registry and the Alberta cancer registry. The relative 5-year survival was 73%, which is higher than most rates reported from other centres. Lymph node involvement was significant as a prognostic factor, with the relative 5-year survival falling from 92% in the group without lymph node involvement to 58% in the group with three or more involved nodes. The prognosis was also significantly affected by the stage of the disease according to the 1973 TNM classification: the 5-year survival rates ranged from 88% for patients with stage 1 disease to 17% for those with stage IV disease. Women 40 to 59 years of age had a higher survival rate (79%) than those under 40 years (65%) or over 60 years (66%) of age. Analyses by 5-year age groups showed that women 35 to 39 years old had a particularly poor survival rate (59%). Postmenopausal women less than 55 years old had a higher survival rate than did perimenopausal or premenopausal women in the same age group. Further follow-up is indicated to correlate possible high-risk factors with survival.  相似文献   

16.
17.
Melioidosis is an emerging infectious disease of humans and animals in the tropics caused by the soil bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei. Despite high fatality rates, the ecology of B.pseudomallei remains unclear. We used a combination of field and laboratory studies to investigate B.pseudomallei colonization of native and exotic grasses in northern Australia. Multivariable and spatial analyses were performed to determine significant predictors for B.pseudomallei occurrence in plants and soil collected longitudinally from field sites. In plant inoculation experiments, the impact of B.pseudomallei upon these grasses was studied and the bacterial load semi-quantified. Fluorescence in situ hybridization and confocal laser scanning microscopy were performed to localize the bacteria in plants. Burkholderia pseudomallei was found to inhabit not only the rhizosphere and roots but also aerial parts of specific grasses. This raises questions about the potential spread of B.pseudomallei by grazing animals whose droppings were found to be positive for these bacteria. In particular, B.pseudomallei readily colonized exotic grasses introduced to Australia for pasture. The ongoing spread of these introduced grasses creates new habitats suitable for B.pseudomallei survival and may be an important factor in the evolving epidemiology of melioidosis seen both in northern Australia and elsewhere globally.  相似文献   

18.
It is well known that parts of earthworms can survive if they are cut off. Our aim was to link the regeneration capacity of an earthworm, Eisenia fetida (Oligochaeta, Annelida) with the site of the amputation, so we amputated earthworms at different body segment locations along the length of the body to examine the different survival rates and regeneration lengths of the anterior, posterior, and medial sections.
The greatest survival rates occurred for earthworms with the most body segments remaining after amputation. The anterior regeneration lengths were of two types. The lengths of regeneration of amputated from body segment 6/7 to further down the body posteriorly increased gradually (Type LI). However, the regeneration lengths of earthworm which were amputated behind the 23rd segment, with less than a quarter of the total segments remaining, did not increase until the blastema and tail bud formation (Type LII). These treatments were not completely regeneration. There were significant differences in both survival rates and lengths of regeneration lengths between immature earthworms and clitellate adult earthworms during the early stages of regeneration, but not at later stages of regeneration. The immature earthworms had a greater regeneration potential than clitellate adults amputated at the same segment. The survival rates of earthworms were correlated significantly with the number of body segments remaining after amputation, but not with the position of the amputation. The relationships between the survival rates and the numbers of remaining segments could be described by linear regressions. The anterior regeneration lengths were correlated with the position of the amputation, but not with the number of remaining segments; the posterior regeneration lengths, were not correlated with the number of segments remaining nor the amputation position. The anterior regeneration length was not related to the survival rates for all earthworm amputations after 30 days but was related in this way after 60 days.  相似文献   

19.
The natural history of neuroblastoma and factors affecting survival for this disease were studied in an unselected group of children notified to cancer registries in Britain during 1962-7. The three-year survival rate based on 487 cases was 23%; many of the cases were followed up for more than five years, and this made it possible to calculate long-term survival and recurrence rates. There were only five deaths among 110 cases followed for more than three years, 64 of the survivors having been followed for more than five years. Factors affecting the prognosis included age at diagnosis, site, histological grade at diagnosis, and the sex of the child. The interrelationship between these factors together with their effect on prognosis were analysed, and in particular we attempted to elucidate factors which might explain our observation that girls have a significantly better survival rate than boys. Direct histological evidence and also the analyses of survival and recurrence rates seem to support the suggestion that the likelihood of maturation for this tumour is greater for girls than for boys.  相似文献   

20.
It is well known that parts of earthworms can survive if they are cut off. Our aim was to link the regeneration capacity of an earthworm, Eisenia fetida (Oligochaeta, Annelida) with the site of the amputation, so we amputated earthworms at different body segment locations along the length of the body to examine the different survival rates and regeneration lengths of the anterior, posterior, and medial sections.
The greatest survival rates occurred for earthworms with the most body segments remaining after amputation. The anterior regeneration lengths were of two types. The lengths of regeneration of amputated from body segment 6/7 to further down the body posteriorly increased gradually (Type LI). However, the regeneration lengths of earthworm which were amputated behind the 23rd segment, with less than a quarter of the total segments remaining, did not increase until the blastema and tail bud formation (Type LII). These treatments were not completely regeneration. There were significant differences in both survival rates and lengths of regeneration lengths between immature earthworms and clitellate adult earthworms during the early stages of regeneration, but not at later stages of regeneration. The immature earthworms had a greater regeneration potential than clitellate adults amputated at the same segment. The survival rates of earthworms were correlated significantly with the number of body segments remaining after amputation, but not with the position of the amputation. The relationships between the survival rates and the numbers of remaining segments could be described by linear regressions. The anterior regeneration lengths were correlated with the position of the amputation, but not with the number of remaining segments; the posterior regeneration lengths, were not correlated with the number of segments remaining nor the amputation position. The anterior regeneration length was not related to the survival rates for all earthworm amputations after 30 days but was related in this way after 60 days.  相似文献   

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