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1.
E. S. Nicholls  J. Jung  J. W. Davies 《CMAJ》1981,125(9):981-992
During the past two decades approximately one half of all deaths in Canada were due to cardiovascular diseases. Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease caused more than 60% and 20% of those deaths respectively. The mortality rates for ischemic heart disease in males increased slightly until 1965 and then dropped substantially, whereas the rates for females, which were declining at least since the early 1960s, accelerated in their decline. As a consequence, the rates for males remain almost twice as high as those for females. The reductions were initially observed in males 25 to 34 years old and in all age groups of females, but became apparent in a wider range of ages in the second period reviewed (1969 through 1977). The mortality of cerebrovascular disease has gradually diminished for both sexes since the 1950s, but the decline has been more pronounced among females, who originally had the higher rate. Marked geographic differences in mortality rates still exist in Canada despite the decline in death rates for both ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease in all regions of the country. Surprising regional differences in times of onset of these declines have been demonstrated. For ischemic heart disease Ontario maintains the highest and the Prairies the lowest mortality rates. Quebec, despite a sustained decline, still ranks third, while the Pacific region shows the second-lowest rates in the country. The Atlantic region showed the lowest rates of decline in the period reviewed. The reduction in the mortality of ischemic heart disease in Canada (16.4% between 1969 and 1977) must be considered real for a variety of reasons. Direct evidence is not available to elucidate whether the reduction is the consequence of reduced incidence, increased survival or a combination of the two factors. The potential role of various factors that may have contributed to this decline is briefly discussed in this article.  相似文献   

2.
Alex Richman  Richard Orlaw 《CMAJ》1965,93(26):1336-1339
Changes in Canadian rates of mortality from barbiturates are examined, and their relation to barbiturate use in the general population is discussed. While the number of deaths attributed to barbiturates quadrupled, from 63 in 1950 to 232 in 1963, there has been a concomitant decrease in the number of deaths from inhalation of utility gas.Combined rates for deaths from utility gas and barbiturates declined steadily for most age groups between 1950-52, 1955-57, and 1959-63. It is possible that the increased mortality from barbiturates represents a change in fashion in regard to method of suicide. Changed mortality from barbiturates is not a valid measure of the extent to which consumption of barbiturates has increased in the Canadian population.  相似文献   

3.
From 1950 to 1980, the gross alteration in dietary habit in Japan was noted. Intake of total calories has markedly increased. This could be most likely due to a remarkable increase in intake of fat, especially animal fat, egg and milk products. A marked decrease of mortality rate due to cerebral hemorrhage and in contrast a marked increase of mortality rate due to cerebral infarction and ischemic heart disease were noted. An epidemiological study of the intake of fish meat (EPA intake) and the mortality rate of adult diseases was performed in a fishing area and in a farming area in Chiba Prefecture. Intake of fish meat (EPA) by the residents of the fishing area was 2-3 times higher than by the residents of the farming area. The mortality rate due to ischemic heart disease and cerebral vascular diseases tended to be lower in the fishing area than in the farming area. EPA manufactured from sardine oil was orally given to normal subjects and to patients with cerebro- and cardiovascular diseases for 4-16 weeks. Significantly decreased platelet aggregation, decreased platelet retention, lowered whole blood viscosity, prolonged bleeding time, increased erythrocyte deformability, improvement of hyperlipidemia, and clinical improvement in some patients were noted. 12-Lipoxygenase metabolites of EPA (12-HPEPE) and arachidonic acid (12-HPETE) have an equipotent inhibitory action on platelet function.  相似文献   

4.
OBJECTIVE--To monitor trends in mortality and morbidity due to ischaemic heart disease and compare these with observed levels of risk factors from population surveys. DESIGN--Analysis of trends in death rates from ischaemic heart disease in Iceland compared with expected rates computed from population surveys. Risk factor levels together with beta factors obtained from Cox''s regression analysis were used to compute expected death rates. Trends in morbidity due to acute myocardial infarction were assessed and secular trends in dietary consumption compared with trends in cholesterol concentrations. SETTING--Reykjavik, Iceland (total population 250,000; over half the population live in Reykjavik). SUBJECTS--12,814 randomly selected residents in the Reykjavik area aged 45-64 (6623 men, 6191 women; 72% and 80% of those invited). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Age adjusted rates of myocardial infarction and deaths from ischaemic heart disease. Expected risk from risk factor levels (smoking, total serum cholesterol concentration, systolic blood pressure) at each unique survey visit. RESULTS--Mortality from ischaemic heart disease has decreased by 17-18% since 1970. During 1981-6 the myocardial infarction attack rate in men under 75 decreased by 23%. A decrease occurred in the level of all three major risk factors after 1968. The fall in the serum cholesterol concentration coincided with a reduction in consumption of dairy fat and margarine. The calculated reduction in risk for the age group 45-64 was about 35%, which was closely similar to the observed decrease in mortality due to ischaemic heart disease in that age group. CONCLUSION--The reduction in mortality from ischaemic heart disease was substantially due to a decreased incidence of myocardial infarction and could be attributed largely to the reduction in risk factors.  相似文献   

5.
T. W. Anderson 《CMAJ》1970,102(11):1156-1160
Death rates for Ontario females aged 15 to 44 during the years 1959-61 and 1966-68 have been compared to see if there have been any changes in these rates which might be related to the widespread use of oral contraceptives since 1961. Overall mortality (all causes) has declined significantly during this time, as have the rates for deaths due to child-birth and pregnancy, and from cancer of the uterus. Death rates from ischemic heart disease and cancer of the breast have not shown any significant change, but there has been a substantial increase in the rates ascribed to venous thromboembolism and suicide.It must be stressed that a change in the recorded death rate does not necessarily mean that there has been a corresponding change in the incidence of the disease in question, or that such a change is related to the use of oral contraceptives. However, if oral contraceptives do cause an increase in a fatal disease, the effect should show up, sooner or later, in routine mortality statistics, and periodic examination of death rates may therefore provide a useful starting point for more detailed epidemiological investigation.To assist physicians in counselling patients, a diagram has been prepared showing the relative importance of some selected causes of death in females aged 15 to 44, and the extent to which these death rates have changed since the introduction of oral contraceptives.  相似文献   

6.
Lipsitch M  Sousa AO 《Genetics》2002,161(4):1599-1607
Infections have long been thought to exert natural selection on humans. Infectious disease resistance is frequently invoked as a mechanism shaping human genetic diversity, but such hypotheses have rarely been quantitatively evaluated with direct measures of disease-related mortality. Enhancement of genetically determined resistance to tuberculosis by natural selection has been proposed as a factor explaining the decline of tuberculosis in Europe and North America in the period 1830-1950 (before the advent of antimicrobial chemotherapy) and the apparently reduced susceptibility of Europeans and their descendants to tuberculosis infection and/or disease. We used Swedish vital statistics from 1891 to 1900 to estimate that individuals who escaped mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) during the European tuberculosis epidemic would have enjoyed a fitness advantage of 7-15% per generation compared to individuals who were susceptible to PTB mortality; individuals with 50% protection would have had a selection coefficient of 4-7%/generation. Selection during the peak of the European TB epidemic could have substantially reduced the frequency of already rare alleles conferring increased susceptibility to PTB mortality, but only if the phenotypic effects of these alleles were very large. However, if resistant alleles were rare at the beginning of this period, 300 years would not have been long enough for such selection to increase their frequency to epidemiologically significant levels. Reductions in the frequency of rare susceptibility alleles could have played at most a small part in the decline of the epidemic in the century preceding 1950. Natural selection by PTB deaths during the European TB epidemic alone cannot account for the presently low level of TB disease observed among Europeans and their descendants just prior to the appearance of antibiotic treatment.  相似文献   

7.
More than 300 new cases of thyroid cancer are diagnosed in Los Angeles County every year. The age-adjusted annual incidence rates of this disease for all races combined are 2.4 for males and 6.1 for females. Rates for women are more than twice rates for men in each major ethnic group. Blacks of both sexes have the lowest rates; Japanese, Chinese, other Asians and Spanish-surnamed whites all have rates that are as high as or higher than rates among non-Spanish-surnamed whites. Other demographic patterns include the excess of thyroid cancer among Jewish residents of Los Angeles.There have been an increase in thyroid cancer incidence and a decline in mortality for this disease in the United States over the past several decades. Several possible explanations can be made for these trends. Also, the risk factors for thyroid cancer deserve review.  相似文献   

8.
The Honolulu Heart Program (HHP) is a long-term prospective epidemiologic study of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in male descendants of Japanese migrants to Hawaii. The article is a review of data from recent and past HHP studies relevant to the Seventeenth Pacific Science Congress symposium "Changes in Disease Patterns in the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia." The Ni-Hon-San Study, which compared CVD rates and risk factors in Japanese men living in Japan, Hawaii (HHP), and California, showed that coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality rates in Hawaii were intermediate between rates in Japan and California. Gradients in CVD risk factors were similar to the gradients in disease rates. From 1966 to 1984 trends in incidence rates for CHD, stroke, and cause-specific mortality were compared for the 8006 participants and 3130 non-participants in the HHP. CHD and stroke rates declined by about 40% for the total HHP cohort. There was a larger decline for CHD mortality (over 60%) in the nonparticipants. There was also a much greater decline in total mortality and cancer mortality rates in the nonparticipants. The results of the reviewed studies show that the subjects, although sharing a common ethnic background, experience different rates of disease when living in diverse geographic and cultural locales. This finding supports evidence that environmental and behavioral factors influence chronic disease rates and provides a basis for intervention and prevention. The finding that nonparticipants in epidemiologic studies can show different incidence trends suggests that caution should be used in interpreting trends limited only to participants.  相似文献   

9.
Many elasmobranchs have experienced strong population declines, which have been largely attributed to the direct and indirect effects of exploitation. Recently, however, live elasmobranchs are being increasingly valued for their role in marine ecosystems, dive tourism and intrinsic worth. Thus, management plans have been implemented to slow and ultimately reverse negative trends, including shark-specific (e.g. anti-finning laws) to ecosystem-based (e.g. no-take marine reserves) strategies. Yet it is unclear how successful these measures are, or will be, given the degree of depletion and slow recovery potential of most elasmobranchs. Here, current understanding of elasmobranch population recoveries is reviewed. The potential and realized extent of population increases, including rates of increase, timelines and drivers are evaluated. Across 40 increasing populations, only 25% were attributed to decreased anthropogenic mortality, while the majority was attributed to predation release. It is also shown that even low exploitation rates (2-6% per year) can halt or reverse positive population trends in six populations currently managed under recovery plans. Management measures that help restore elasmobranch populations include enforcement or near-zero fishing mortality, protection of critical habitats, monitoring and education. These measures are highlighted in a case study from the south-eastern U.S.A., where some evidence of recovery is seen in Pristis pectinata, Galeocerdo cuvier and Sphyrna lewini populations. It is concluded that recovery of elasmobranchs is certainly possible but requires time and a combination of strong and dedicated management actions to be successful.  相似文献   

10.
The trends in mortality from coronary heart disease in the 1970s and the differences in trends between counties within Finland were calculated from official mortality statistics among the population aged 35 to 64 years. During this period coronary mortality declined by a mean of 1.1% for men and 2.3% for women annually in the whole of Finland. A community based cardiovascular control programme was started in 1972 in North Karelia, a county in the east of Finland. The decline in coronary mortality in this county between 1969 and 1979 was 24% in men and 51% in women. The decline in the rest of Finland over the same period was 12% in men and 24% in women. The decline in North Karelia was greater than that in other counties of Finland for both men and women and that difference exceeded random variation, with over 95% likelihood for both sexes. Even with adjustment for rates before 1974 with cross-county multiple regression analyses the difference persisted. Although further studies are needed, the changes in coronary mortality in North Karelia suggest that the preventive programme has been effective.  相似文献   

11.
Information that can be used to assess trends in the health of the population is limited to the results of irregular surveys of nutritional status and 'I.Q.', to data obtained from the notification of infectious diseases, congenital malformations, blindness and other selected defects, and to mortality rates. The last have been recorded since 1841 and provide the most detailed and useful information, although they are often difficult to interpret because of changes in the nomenclature, classification, methods of diagnosis, and efficacy of treatment of disease states. In the last 40 years, mortality rates have shown progressive reductions at all ages which have continued past the time when improvements in the prevention and treatment of infectious disease might be expected to have produced their principal benefits. Notable differences have emerged between the sexes, the rates continuing to decline in women but remaining more or less stable for a period in middle-aged men. This difference can be attributed to sex differences in life-style, so that until recently the trends in women are likely to have been the better indicators of the effect of toxic agents in the environment. The available data are inadequate to assess possible effects such as alterations in behaviour, but are of some help in regard to teratogenicity and carcinogenicity.  相似文献   

12.
The trends in mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular stroke, and all cardiovascular diseases were analysed for the province of North Karelia and for the rest of Finland. Linear trends in mortality were computed for the population aged 35 to 64 for the period from 1969 to 1982, and changes in mortality between the three year means of 1969-71 and 1980-2 were calculated. In North Karelia, where a community based preventive programme has been carried out since 1972, the annual decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease in men was on average 2.9%, whereas in the rest of Finland it was 2.0%. For women the respective average annual declines in mortality were 4.9% and 3.0%. The net decline from 1969-71 to 1980-2 in North Karelia was 100 deaths/100,000 men. The annual mortality from all cardiovascular disease in men decreased by 2.9% in North Karelia and by 2.6% in the rest of Finland; in women the decreases were 6.0% and 5.0% a year, respectively. The net decline in North Karelia was 71 deaths/100,000 men. The decline in mortality from all causes was also appreciable in both sexes in North Karelia, but it did not differ significantly from national trends.  相似文献   

13.

Background

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality has been on the decline in the United States for decades. However, declines in IHD mortality have been slower in certain groups, including young women and black individuals.

Hypothesis

Trends in IHD vary by age, sex, and race in New York City (NYC). Young female minorities are a vulnerable group that may warrant renewed efforts to reduce IHD.

Methods

IHD mortality trends were assessed in NYC 1980–2008. NYC Vital Statistics data were obtained for analysis. Age-specific IHD mortality rates and confidence bounds were estimated. Trends in IHD mortality were compared by age and race/ethnicity using linear regression of log-transformed mortality rates. Rates and trends in IHD mortality rates were compared between subgroups defined by age, sex and race/ethnicity.

Results

The decline in IHD mortality rates slowed in 1999 among individuals aged 35–54 years but not ≥55. IHD mortality rates were higher among young men than women age 35–54, but annual declines in IHD mortality were slower for women. Black women age 35–54 had higher IHD mortality rates and slower declines in IHD mortality than women of other race/ethnicity groups. IHD mortality trends were similar in black and white men age 35–54.

Conclusions

The decline in IHD mortality rates has slowed in recent years among younger, but not older, individuals in NYC. There was an association between sex and race/ethnicity on IHD mortality rates and trends. Young black women may benefit from targeted medical and public health interventions to reduce IHD mortality.  相似文献   

14.
Since the early 1980s, the southern corroboree frog Pseudophryne corroboree and northern corroboree frog P. pengilleyi have been in a state of decline from their sub-alpine and high montane bog environments on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. To date, there has been no adequate explanation as to what is causing the decline of these species. We investigated the possibility that a pathogen associated with other recent frog declines in Australia, the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, may have been implicated in the decline of the corroboree frogs. We used histology of toe material and real-time PCR of skin swabs to investigate the presence and infection rates with B. dendrobatidis in historic and extant populations of both corroboree frog species. Using histology, we did not detect any B. dendrobatidis infections in corroboree frog populations prior to their decline. However, using the same technique, high rates of infection were observed in populations of both species after the onset of substantial population declines. The real-time PCR screening of skin swabs identified high overall infection rates in extant populations of P. corroboree (between 44 and 59%), while significantly lower rates of infection were observed in low-altitude P. pengilleyi populations (14%). These results suggest that the initial and continued decline of the corroboree frogs may well be attributed to the emergence of B. dendrobatidis in populations of these species.  相似文献   

15.
Biodiversity is undergoing unprecedented global decline. Efforts to slow this rate have focused foremost on rarer species, which are at most risk of extinction. Less interest has been paid to more common species, despite their greater importance in terms of ecosystem function and service provision. How rates of decline are partitioned between common and less abundant species remains unclear. Using a 30‐year data set of 144 bird species, we examined Europe‐wide trends in avian abundance and biomass. Overall, avian abundance and biomass are both declining with most of this decline being attributed to more common species, while less abundant species showed an overall increase in both abundance and biomass. If overall avian declines are mainly due to reductions in a small number of common species, conservation efforts targeted at rarer species must be better matched with efforts to increase overall bird numbers, if ecological impacts of birds are to be maintained.  相似文献   

16.
A study was conducted to assess how lung cancer and other mortality trends among California physicians had been influenced by the high proportion who had given up smoking since 1950. Several sample surveys indicated that the proportion of California physicians who currently smoked cigarettes had declined dramatically from about 53% in 1950 to about 10% in 1980. During the same period the proportion of other American men who smoked cigarettes had declined only modestly, from about 53% to 38%. Using the 1950 American Medical Directory a cohort of 10 130 California male physicians was established and followed up for mortality till the end of 1979, during which time 5090 died. The information from follow up and death certification was exceptionally good. The standardised mortality ratio for lung cancer among California male physicians relative to American white men declined from 62 in 1950-9 to 30 in 1970-9. The corresponding decline in standardised mortality ratio was from 100 to 63 for other smoking related cancer, from 106 to 71 for ischaemic heart disease, and from 62 to 35 for bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma. The standardised mortality ratio remained relatively constant for other causes of death not strongly related to smoking. The overall ratio declined in all age groups at a rate of about 1% a year. The total death rate among all physicians converged towards the rate among non-smoking physicians. By the end of the study period physicians had a cancer rate and total death rate similar to or less than those among typical United States non-smokers. This "natural experiment" shows that lung cancer became relatively less common on substantial elimination of the primary causal factor, cigarette smoking. Other smoking related diseases also became relatively less common, though factors other than cigarette smoking may have contributed to this change.  相似文献   

17.
1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.  相似文献   

18.
R. G. B. Brown 《Ibis》1967,109(4):502-515
This paper describes the results of investigations into the factors affecting breeding success of the Herring and Lesser Black-backed Gulls Larus argentatus and L. fuscus, in the large colony on Walney Island, northwest Lancashire, between 1962 and 1965. These investigations were concerned with the incubation period, and the first ten days after hatching. The survival of chicks to ten days is 67% in Herring Gulls, and 56% in Lesser Black-backs. Most of these losses occur in the period just after hatching and are due to “cannibalism” by other gulls. This form of predation does not appear to be masking any effects from starvation or disease. The following factors contribute to egg or chick mortality:breeding too late (and, to a much smaller extent, too early); breeding in the open, as opposed to amongst cover; the facts that eggs in small clutches have a lower hatching success than those in large ones and that Herring Gull (but not Lesser Black-back) chicks in small broods are less likely to survive to ten days than are those in large broods. Chick mortality after the first ten days is not certainly known. About 30% of the eggs laid gave rise to fledged young— or about one fledged chick per pair. In the Herring Gull, the average clutch size (2.56) is lower than that of the Lesser Black-back (2.76). Both species show a seasonal decline in clutch size—this occurs earlier in the Herring Gulls than in the Lesser Black-backs. The Walney population, which stood at about 700 pairs in 1950, had reached 12,000 in 1957, and is at present about 18–19,000 pairs. It is suggested that this increase may be linked to the greater availability, or exploitation, of human garbage in the Morecambe Bay area. The population explosion between 1950 and 1957 must have been partly due to massive immigration and could not have come about through natural increase alone. The possible influences of the gulls' behaviour on the population growth are discussed. There is no evidence of any “shock disease”, although the Walney colony is very crowded. “Cannibalism” is regarded, not as evidence of a failing food supply, but as an extension of the normal hunting behaviour of these omnivorous gulls; it will be an economical means of obtaining food only in a large, dense colony, such as Walney. It may be offset by increased breeding efficiency due to social factors.  相似文献   

19.
Using data drawn from large-scale databases, a number of interesting trends in the fossil record have been observed in recent years. These include the average decline in extinction rates throughout the Phanerozoic, the average increase in standing diversity, correlations between rates of origination and extinction, and simple laws governing the form of survivorship curves and the distribution of the lifetimes of taxa. In this paper we derive a number of mathematical relationships between these quantities and show how these different trends are interrelated. We also derive a variety of constraints on the possible forms of these trends, such as limits on the rate at which extinction may decline and limits on the allowed difference between extinction and origination rates at any given time.  相似文献   

20.
Testicular cancer, although a rare malignancy, represents the most common cancer in young male populations of Western origin. While increasing incidence trends of testicular cancer have been reported, mortality is declining in many high-resource settings. Using national data from the Croatian National Cancer Registry for the period 1983-2007, time trends were analysed by joinpoint regression and Age-Period-Cohort models. The present study is the first to analyse the testicular cancer trends in the Croatian population. Over the 25-year period, a mean number of 89 incident cases and 13 deaths were reported annually. The observed mean annual increases in age-standardised rates were 7.0% for incidence and 1.6% for mortality, with no abrupt linear changes (joinpoints) identified. The incidence rates of testicular cancer incidence have been steeply increasing in successive cohorts born since the mid-1930s. The rapid rise in testicular cancer incidence in the Croatian population appears to be one of the highest rates of increase recorded in Europe and worldwide. The lack of decline in the mortality rates over time, while based on relatively few deaths, highlights a need for improvements in diagnostics and management of therapy in Croatia in order to improve the survival and quality-of-life of testicular cancer patients.  相似文献   

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