Expected Environmental Impacts of Pervasive Computing

Pervasive Computing will bring about both additional loads on and benefits to the environment. The prevailing assessment of positive and negative effects will depend on how effectively energy and waste policy governs the development of ICT infrastructures and applications in the coming years. Although Pervasive Computing is not expected to change the impact of the technosphere on the environment radically, it may cause additional material and energy consumption due to the production and use of ICT as well as severe pollution risks that may come about as a result of the disposal of electronic waste. These first-order environmental impacts are to be set off against the second-order effects, such as higher eco-efficiency due to the possibility to optimize material and energy intensive processes or to replace them by pure signal processing (dematerialization). The potential environmental benefits from such second-order effects are considerable and can outweigh the first-order effects. But changes in demand for more efficient services (third-order effects) can counterbalance these savings. The experience gained thus far with ICT impacts has shown that such a rebound effect occurs in most cases of technological innovations.     

Digital Media and Dematerialization

Advances in information and communications technologies (ICTs) could, in principle, offer a means of dematerializing a wide variety of services. In practice, however, the material resource impact of electronic equipment is itself an issue of increasing concern. This article looks specifically at music delivery methods to investigate whether digital media and associated hardware can reduce the material throughput attributable to music delivery. In the first part of the article, we examine recent market trends in digital music delivery and digital media sales. Next we report on a series of stakeholder interviews undertaken during 2006 to explore industry views on the relationship among audio content, electronic hardware, and environmental impact. Finally, we carry out a scenario analysis to investigate the potential material impacts of different possible futures in music delivery. Although in one scenario we find some potential for dematerialization, there are too many ambiguities in underlying assumptions about the relationship between content and hardware to predict with any confidence that the promise of digital media will lead to the dematerialization of music delivery. Currently, at least, it appears that digital formats have not contributed to dematerialization, essentially due to increases in hardware. It seems most likely that the material resource impacts of digital music delivery will continue to be significant for some time.     

Assessing the Environmental-Hazard Potential for Life Cycle Assessment,Eco-Efficiency and SEEbalance (8 pp)

Intention, Goal, Scope, Background BASF has developed the eco-efficiency analysis tool to address not only strategic issues but also issues posed by the marketplace, politics and research. The goal was to develop a tool for supporting decision-making processes, which is useful for many of applications in the Chemical and other industries. A part of the eco-efficiency analysis involves the evaluation of the toxicity and the eco-toxicity potential. Objectives Many life cycle analyses do not include an assessment of the toxicity potential nor the eco-toxicity potential. However, in order to arrive at a comprehensive assessment of products and processes, it is often the eco-toxicity potential, which constitutes an important factor with regard to the evaluation of sustainability. The cradle-to-grave approach is also important for this calculation and will be done based on a database that will be discussed also in this paper. Methods The method used for the determination of the eco-toxicity potential follows the basic rules of the European Union Risk Ranking System (EURAM). The other criteria of the ecological fingerprint are combined with the economical results in the eco-efficiency portfolio. Results and Discussion The results of the studies are shown in a simple diagram, the eco-efficiency portfolio. Therefore ecological data are summarized in a special manner as described previously. It has been shown that the weighting factors, which are used in our method, have a negligible impact on the results. In most cases, the input data have the dominant impact on the results of the study. The eco-toxicity assessment will be a part of the ecological calculation. Because of the cradle-to-grave approach, substances of the whole life cycle can be identified that might have a toxic impact to the environment. The results can be used for optimization of the process. Conclusions The new calculation model allows the assessment of eco-toxicological substances in an appropriate and easy way. In most of the cases the data from a European safety data sheet are sufficient for the calculation. The normalized data can be incorporated very easily in the ecological fingerprint and in the drawing of the eco-efficiency portfolio. Recommendations and Outlook LCA in combination with the evaluation of the eco-toxicity potential will for reasons of optimizing for least impact become more important in certain cases. Especially in those systems where water emissions are likely, the use of the evaluation system in the eco-efficiency analysis is recommended. This new methodology allows the calculation of eco-toxicity potentials in a short time with a small set of input information. The analytical eco-efficiency tool helps in implementing more sustainable processes and products in the future.     

绿色发展背景下区域旅游生态效率影响因素——以西部地区为例

旅游生态效率是评估区域绿色全要素生产率和可持续发展水平的绩效依据。基于西部各省（市、自治区）2000-2017年的面板数据,用"自下而上"法测算西部地区旅游业碳排放量并运用比值法计算旅游生态效率,分析旅游生态效率的时空演变特征及影响因素。首先构建由旅游生态效率、规模效应、结构效应、技术效应共同组成的PVAR模型,探究3种效应对旅游生态效率的影响。然后在考虑各地区能源消费结构差异的基础上构建面板门槛模型,对旅游业发展水平与旅游生态效率的非线性关系进行实证检验。研究结果表明：（1）西部地区旅游生态效率自2000年西部大开发战略实施以来呈逐步提高的趋势,绿色发展水平持续提高。（2）旅游生态效率受自身滞后因素以及技术效应因素的影响较大,游客规模的扩大、产业结构优化以及技术水平的提高均有利于旅游生态效率的提高。（3）旅游业发展水平对旅游生态效率的影响存在门槛效应,经济发展水平、规模效应、结构效应对旅游生态效率有显著的正向作用,城镇化对旅游生态效率有显著的负向作用。最后根据实证分析的结果,提出西部地区实现旅游业绿色、低碳发展的相关对策。     

Ecometrics for life cycle management

Metrics are a prerequisite for the successful monitoring and management of progress toward goals. Within the context of sustainable development these “values” are stakeholder dependent with the interests of the individual, society, the environmental infrastructure and intergenerational liability differing significantly. These stakeholder priorities may also be mutually inconsistent or simultaneously unattainable. Therefore, a set of scale- and value-specific indicators will he required to represent the priorities of individuals, religious organizations, political and public interest groups, non-government organizations, firms and industry associations, as well as national and international institutions. Restricting the number of ecometrics, or creating aggregated sustainability indicators, risks disenfranchisement and ivalidation respectively. Over the past three decades a series ofmicroecometrics have been developed to account for the impact of human activity, technology or products over regional, national, and sub-continental scales. These include life cycle energy consumption, dematerialization, waste minimization, as well as design for environment and eco-efficiency indicators, the latter two combining technological or economic aspects respectively with environmental factors.Metrics which evaluate the impact of a service, or the utility provided by a product, are lacking. A series of global measures, or macroecometrics have also been defined and include the average annual temperature as well as atmospheric compositions and concentrations, sea level, and earth based resources such as topsoil quantities. The validity of microecometrics as measures of global phenomena can be established through life cycle impact assessments which evaluate the “system’s” response to effects of products or services throughout their life cycle. However, the link between microecometrics and macroecometrics, their validity as indicators of sustainability, the subjectivity of sustainable developmentper se as a value, and the relationship of metrics and sustainable development with family values has not extensively been addressed. This paper summarizes recently proposed ecometrics, calls for the recognition of the subjectivity of indicators, the distinction between ecometrics used for internal corporate reporting and external decision making, and the establishment of a representative multistakeholder debate.     

Dematerialization and the Circular Economy: Comparing Strategies to Reduce Material Impacts of the Consumer Electronic Product Ecosystem

The rapid technological evolution and adoption of consumer electronics highlights a growing need for adaptive methodologies to evaluate material consumption at the intersection of technological change and increasing consumption. While dematerialization and the circular economy (CE) have both been proposed to mitigate increasing material consumption, recent research has shown that these methods may be ineffective at achieving net material use reduction: When focused on specific products, these methods neglect the effects of complex interactions among and increasing consumption of consumer electronic products. The research presented here develops and applies a material flow analysis aimed at evaluating an entire “product ecosystem,” thereby including the effects of increasing consumption, product trade‐offs, and technological innovations. Results are then used to evaluate the potential efficacy of “natural” dematerialization (occurring as technology advances or smaller products substitute for larger ones) and CE (closing the loop between secondary material supply and primary material demand). Results show that material consumption by the ecosystem of electronics commonly used by U.S. households peaked in 2000. This consumption relies on increasingly diverse materials, including gold, cobalt, and indium, for whom secondary supply is still negligible, particularly given low recovery rates, often less than 1%. Potential circularity metrics of material “dilution,” “dispersion,” and “demand mismatch” are also evaluated, and indicate that CE approaches aimed at closing the loop on consumer electronic material still face several critical barriers particularly related to design and efficient recycling infrastructure.     

Quantitative Ecological Risk Analysis by Evaluating China's Eco-Efficiency and Its Determinants

Industrial production can produce large amounts of harmful by-products, causing serious pollution and ecological risk. In addition, if government regulations are subjected into the industries, huge cost risk will be faced. This article adopts a two-stage slack-based undesirable-output data envelope analysis (DEA) model to measure the eco-efficiency of China. In the first stage, we analyze the eco-efficiency of each province of China, and in the second stage, we employed a truncated bootstrap method to understand the determinants of eco-efficiency. The results indicate that whereas the eco-efficiency of the eastern region was the highest, that of the western region was the lowest. The western region's economy lagged behind that of other regions, and its environment suffered from heavy pollution. It was found that the level of industrialization did not contribute to eco-efficiency. However, promotion of the service industry, investment for the environment, and regional innovation have positive effects on eco-efficiency.     

Eco-efficiency

Goal, Scope and Background The eco-efficiency analysis and portfolio is a powerful decision support tool for various strategic and marketing issues. Since its original academic development, the approach has been refined during the last decade and applied to a multitude of projects. BASF, as possibly the most prominent company using and developing this tool, has applied the eco-efficiency approach to more than 300 projects in the last 7 years. One of the greatest difficulties is to cover both dimensions of eco-efficiency (costs or value added and environmental impact) in a comparable manner. This is particularly a challenge for the eco-efficiency analyses of products. Methods In this publication, an important approach and field of application dealing with product decisions based on the combination of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is described in detail. Special emphasis is put on the quantitative assessment of the relation of costs and environmental impacts. In conventional LCA an assessment of environmental impact categories is often made by normalization with inhabitant equivalents. This is necessary to be able to compare the different environmental impact categories, because of each different unit. For the proposed eco-efficiency analysis, the costs of products or processes are also normalized with adapted gross domestic product figures. Results and Discussion The ratio between normalized environmental impact categories and normalized costs (R_E,C) is used for the graphical presentation of the results in an eco-efficiency portfolio. For the interpretation of the results of an eco-efficiency analysis, it is important to distinguish ratios R_E,C which are higher than one from ratios lower than one. In the first case, the environmental impact is higher than the cost impact, while the inverse is true in the second case. This is very important for defining which kind of improvement is needed and defining strategic management decisions. The paper shows a statistical evaluation of the R_E,C factor based on the results of different eco-efficiency analyses made by BASF. For industries based on large material flows (e.g. chemicals, steel, metals, agriculture), the R_E,C factor is typically higher than one. Conclusions and Recommendations This contribution shows that LCC and LCA may be combined in a way that they mirror the concept of eco-efficiency. LCAs that do not consider LCC may be of very limited use for company management. For that very reason, corporations should install a data management system that ensures equal information on both sides of the eco-efficiency coin.     

旅游地生态效率测度的SBM-DEA模型及实证分析

旅游地是典型的人地关系相互作用的特殊区域,旅游地的生态效率研究是其制定与实施包容性、持续性发展政策与措施的基础。采用基于时间序列、包含非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型方法,构建旅游地生态效率测度模型及评价指标体系,以黄山风景区为例,利用1981—2014年的投入产出数据,测度旅游地复合系统的生态效率,分析其演化特征和阶段,并利用Tobit回归模型对其影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)34年来,黄山风景区旅游生态效率(综合效率)不断提升,且具较大发展潜力,在分解效率中,技术效率较高,规模效率次之,规模效率是决定综合效率的关键因素;(2)旅游生态效率的演化经历了初期低效、快速成长、成熟高效、下行风险四个阶段,不同阶段效率的特征不同,影响因素也存在差异;(3)旅游生态效率完成了由规模报酬递增向递减的过渡,资源要素的投入冗余已成为现阶段阻碍生态效率的进一步提高的关键因素;(4)旅游发展水平、产业结构和技术水平对生态效率产生显著的正向影响,投资水平产生显著的负向影响,以废弃物末端治理为表征的环保规制对生态效率的提升作用并不显著。文章最后提出,在山岳型风景区发展初期,应尽可能扩大资源要素投入规模,进入成熟阶段后,则转向逐渐控制投入规模,改善技术能力和资源配置能力,摒弃过度依靠资源消耗和环境污染的粗放式发展模式,走精细化、可持续的发展道路。     

生态产业园的复合生态效率及评价指标体系

生态产业园的建设在国内取得了丰富的成果,已成为我国循环经济建设和可持续发展的重要载体之一。与国外不同,我国的生态产业园最终将演化为生态城市,其功能也从工业生产功能发展为融生产、生活和生态为一体的复合功能。生态效率是评价一个研究对象投入产出效益的量化工具,将生态效率的理念融入生态产业园,从园区作为区域可持续发展的载体、作为生态城市演化的一个特定阶段的视角,提出了复合生态效率的概念,构建了园区复合生态效率评价指标体系,并以郑州经济技术开发区为例,说明了复合生态效率指标在产业园中的应用。     

国内外生态效率核算方法及其应用研究述评

生态效率由于具有突出的定量化分析优势,在可持续发展的评价与量化分析中起着重要作用,且在全世界范围内得到广泛推广和应用。参阅近十年国内外相关文献的基础上,系统总结了生态效率的核算方法及其在不同尺度的应用,侧重于国内外对比分析,研究表明:(1)国外已从简单评价转向生态效率驱动机制的探究。(2)对于生态效率测算,国外开始借助会计、金融以及管理学中的理论和模型对现有的经济/环境比值法以及模型法进行改良和修正;我国则侧重于生态效率评价指标体系构建以及生产率模型的应用。(3)在应用层次上,国外侧重于企业及其产品系统的生态效率分析,并且开始将生态效率同产品的生态设计、关键问题辨识、系统开发等融合起来,而区域等大尺度的研究则处于尝试阶段;我国在企业尺度的研究甚少,主要集中在行业、生态园区、城市及区域等大尺度的生态效率评价。(4)国外开始将生态效率同全球生态问题(全球变暖、生物多样性、食物安全)等结合起来;而我国生态效率研究侧重于污染物分析。(5)由于社会维度定量分析难度较大,目前绝大部分研究都很少涉及。最后,文章提出:我国应加大生态效率的宣传与推广,推动生态效率在微观(企业)以及宏观(全球生态问题)上的研究和应用;借助经济、管理、会计等学科的理论和方法完善生态效率核算方法体系;综合利用全排列多边形图示法,反映社会-经济-自然复合生态系统的各个方面。     

多维发展导向视角下江苏省县域生态效率差异化评价

提高生态效率是实现县域经济绿色发展的重要方式,在充分考虑江苏省县域经济发展合作共赢以及发展导向差异的前提下,遴选一产、二产、三产的增加值为关键指标并设置了3种不同的县域经济发展导向,采用权重约束的仁慈型交叉效率模型和Malmquist生产率指数测算了2015-2017年间江苏省32个县域在3种发展导向下的生态效率和生态全要素生产率,剖析各县域生态效率的差异性及其全要素生产率变动的驱动力,探寻各县域的差异化绿色发展模式。研究结果显示：（1）整体上看,江苏省县域总体生态效率水平较高,但同一地级市下辖的县域生态效率排名差距较大,且生态效率高的县域辐射效应不足。（2）从不同发展导向来看,县域平均生态效率值在绿色经济导向下最高,乡村振兴导向下次之,新型工业导向下最低;同时,同一县域在不同导向下的生态效率排名差异较大,隶属于乡村振兴类的县域最多,绿色经济类次之,新型工业类最少。（3）从动态分析来看,江苏省县域生态效率逐步提升,技术进步指数的增长是促进江苏省县域生态全要素生产率指数增长的主导因素,而绝大多数县域的技术效率变化指数保持不变或呈现衰退现象,表明分析期内江苏省县域生态技术效率未有所提升。     

Eco-efficiency analysis by basf: the method

Intention, Goal, Scope, Background  BASF has developed the tool of eco-efficiency analysis to address not only strategic issues, but also issues posed by the marketplace, politics and research. It was a goal to develop a tool for decision-making processes which is useful for a lot of applications in chemistry and other industries. Objectives. The objectives were the development of a common tool, which is usable in a simple way by LCA-experts and understandable by a lot of people without any experience in this field. The results should be shown in such a way that complex studies are understandable in one view. Methods  The method belongs to the rules of ISO 14040 ff. Beyond these life cycle aspect costs, calculations are added and summarized together with the ecological results to establish an eco-efficiency portfolio. Results and Discussion  The results of the studies are shown in a simple way, the eco-efficiency portfolio. Therefore, ecological data are summarized in a special way as described in this paper. It could be shown that the weighting factors, which are used in our method, have a negligible impact on the results. In most cases, the input data have an important impact on the results of the study. Conclusions. It could be shown that the newly developed eco-efficiency analysis is a new tool, which is usable for a lot of problems in decision-making processes. It is a tool which compares different alternatives of a defined customer benefit over the whole life cycle. Recommendations and Outlook  This new method can be a helpful tool in different fields of the evaluation of product or process alternatives. It can be used in research and development as well as in the optimization of customer processes and products. It is an analytical tool for getting more sustainable processes and products in the future     

基于国家生态足迹账户计算方法的福建省生态足迹研究

运用国家生态足迹账户计算方法(2010版),计算并分析2000-2009年福建省的生态足迹和生态承载力,旨在展示国外生态足迹计算方法研究的最新进展,更准确地揭示近年来福建省的生态足迹和生态承载力状况。结果表明:2000-2009年福建省人均生态足迹由1.2902 gha^**快速增长至2.4925 gha;人均生态承载力由0.9772 gha轻微下降为0.9363 gha;生态赤字持续快速扩大,支撑经济发展由需要1.32倍的福建生态承载力变为需要2.66倍;碳吸收地在生态足迹结构中始终占据首位且呈快速扩大趋势,是福建生态赤字的主导因素;生态效率年均增长率大大低于地区生产总值年均增长率,目前福建生态效率还远低于主要发达国家。     

煤矿固废资源化利用的生态效率与碳减排——以淮北市为例

工业固废的大量堆积产生多种环境危害,工业固废的资源化利用能够节约资源和缓解环境压力。建筑行业是能源消耗和碳排放的主要部门之一,其中建筑材料生产阶段的能耗和碳排放占有重要的地位。粉煤灰、煤矸石是常见的工业固体废物,尤其是在以煤炭为主要能源的地区。粉煤灰、煤矸石资源化利用的途径之一是用于制造新型墙体砖。本文以煤炭资源型城市淮北市的新型墙体砖(粉煤灰砌块、煤矸石砖)和传统墙体砖(粘土砖、粘土多孔砖)为案例,对墙体砖生产过程的生态效率和碳排放进行分析和比较。在淮北市墙体材料行业碳排放不增加的前提下,以最优生态效率为目标,建立线性规划模型,对淮北市4种主要墙体材料的产量进行规划。分析结果表明:新型墙体材料的生态效率高于传统墙体材料;煤矸石砖生产过程的碳排放系数高于传统墙体砖;粉煤灰砌块生产过程的碳排放系数介于粘土砖和粘土多孔砖之间。在淮北市墙体材料行业碳排放不增加的前提下,与现有的产量相比,淮北市应禁止粘土砖的生产,适当减少粘土多孔砖的产量,适当增加粉煤灰砌块和煤矸石砖的产量,以达到最优生态效率。在最优生态效率的情况下,淮北市新型墙体材料煤矸石砖对煤矸石工业固废的利用率将由目前的15.8%增加到25.2%。     

An approach to holistically assess (dairy) farm eco-efficiency by combining Life Cycle Analysis with Data Envelopment Analysis models and methodologies

Eco-efficiency is a useful guide to dairy farm sustainability analysis aimed at increasing output (physical or value added) and minimizing environmental impacts (EIs). Widely used partial eco-efficiency ratios (EIs per some functional unit, e.g. kg milk) can be problematic because (i) substitution possibilities between EIs are ignored, (ii) multiple ratios can complicate decision making and (iii) EIs are not usually associated with just the functional unit in the ratio’s denominator. The objective of this study was to demonstrate a ‘global’ eco-efficiency modelling framework dealing with issues (i) to (iii) by combining Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) data and the multiple-input, multiple-output production efficiency method Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). With DEA each dairy farm’s outputs and LCA-derived EIs are aggregated into a single, relative, bounded, dimensionless eco-efficiency score, thus overcoming issues (i) to (iii). A novelty of this study is that a model providing a number of additional desirable properties was employed, known as the Range Adjusted Measure (RAM) of inefficiency. These properties altogether make RAM advantageous over other DEA models and are as follows. First, RAM is able to simultaneously minimize EIs and maximize outputs. Second, it indicates which EIs and/or outputs contribute the most to a farm’s eco-inefficiency. Third it can be used to rank farms in terms of eco-efficiency scores. Thus, non-parametric rank tests can be employed to test for significant differences in terms of eco-efficiency score ranks between different farm groups. An additional DEA methodology was employed to ‘correct’ the farms’ eco-efficiency scores for inefficiencies attributed to managerial factors. By removing managerial inefficiencies it was possible to detect differences in eco-efficiency between farms solely attributed to uncontrollable factors such as region. Such analysis is lacking in previous dairy studies combining LCA with DEA. RAM and the ‘corrective’ methodology were demonstrated with LCA data from French specialized dairy farms grouped by region (West France, Continental France) and feeding strategy (regardless of region). Mean eco-efficiency score ranks were significantly higher for farms with <10% and 10% to 30% maize than farms with >30% maize in the total forage area before correcting for managerial inefficiencies. Mean eco-efficiency score ranks were higher for West than Continental farms, but significantly higher only after correcting for managerial inefficiencies. These results helped identify the eco-efficiency potential of each region and feeding strategy and could therefore aid advisors and policy makers at farm or region/sector level. The proposed framework helped better measure and understand (dairy) farm eco-efficiency, both within and between different farm groups.     

国外旅游生态效率优化与管理

旅游生态效率概念采用定量化方法对旅游业经济、环境影响进行分析,成为旅游业可持续发展评价的重要工具。基于可持续理论的旅游生态效率优化管理方案不断涌现,相关利益主体应用较多的有环境管理系统、旅游生态标签、清洁生产理念、旅游生态效率中心、21世纪地方议程等。在旅游企业日常运营中积极推动生态效率优化管理,是贯彻绿色发展理念,提高目的地旅游经济、环境绩效的一种新思路。从可持续背景下旅游生态效率优化模型入手,系统化分析了国外旅游生态效率优化管理方案的内容与特征。其中,环境管理系统在目的地层面为旅游生态效率优化设计了一套评估管理流程,旅游生态标签为目的地生态效率水平提供了可视化标志符号,21世纪地方议程为旅游可持续发展提供一致性整合方案,清洁生产理念是一种基于生态效率优化的长期战略,旅游生态效率中心作为非营利性机构有利于中小企业获得较好的环境绩效表现。国外旅游生态效率优化管理方案特征明显、设计合理、管理科学,对我国目的地旅游生态效率优化提升具有重要的借鉴作用。     

Impacts of human activity on environment in the high-cold pasturing area: A case of Gannan pasturing area

Identifying the specific forces driving environmental impact is a hot topic in the field of sustainable development in the pasturing area. In the paper, the ecological footprint was taken as the index of environmental impact, and a series of index like population quality, prosperous, using intensity, livelihood tactics are considered as the main human factors. Using the STIRPAT model and temporal series data from 1980 to 2007, the author analyzes the effects of the human driving forces of environmental impact.
The ecological footprint method presents a simple framework for national natural capital accounting, and it has been used as a comprehensive index of human activity impact, which indirectly reflect human activity’s pressure on the environment. Our analyses showed that the ecological footprint increased from 238736.9 to 877716.1 ha and per capital ecological footprint also increased from 0.854 to 1.961 ha/per during 1980–2007 in Gannan pasturing area. However, in the meantime, the ecological footprint intensity was inclined from 25.396 to 3.025 ha/ten thousand yuan.
With a view of dismantling the human driving forces of ecological footprint, the modified IPAT-called STIRPAT has been employed as a common analytic framework. Our analyses showed that population quantity and using intensity was a major driver of ecological footprint, their coefficients were greater than 1.0 in model (1); In addition, promoting the prosperous lever and the primary industry proportion, the impact of environment will be increased, but their coefficients are less than 1.0 in model (1). At the same time, the technological eco-efficiency of sample regions was discussed in details, the range ability of the technological eco-efficiency was wider, and 15 years went beyond the average level, but the other was less than the average level. Another important finding in the empirical study is that there are some evidences of an environmental Kuznets curve for ecological footprint within the range of calculated data. Some potential improvements in some further researches and suggestions to alleviate the environment pressure, and it is put forward in the last section.     

基于能值和物质流的吉林省生态效率研究

为探讨生态效率计算方法,结合能值分析和物质流分析构建了生态效率表达式,并对吉林省进行实证分析.结果表明:①生态效率在17a间提高了2.9倍;②生态效率的提高使环境压力降低了205.62%,对经济增长的贡献率达63.7%;③人口增长并非环境压力升高的主要原因,资源消耗对环境压力的影响比废弃物排放更大,但其脱钩现象却弱于废弃物排放;④2000年以后,生态效率对抑制环境压力升高、促进经济增长的作用都在下降,各指标的脱钩指数也均在减小,吉林省经济发展的不可持续性在增强.研究结果在理论上有助于深化生态效率研究方法,在实践上有助于深思我国环保政策存在的缺陷,对促进吉林省可持续发展也具有一定的借鉴意义.     

The Dematerialization Potential of the Australian Economy

In this article we test the long‐term dematerialization potential for Australia in terms of materials, energy, and water use as well as CO₂ emissions by introducing concrete targets for major sectors. Major improvements in the construction and housing, transport and mobility, and food and nutrition sectors in the Australian economy, if coupled with significant reductions in the resource export sectors, would substantially improve the current material, energy, and emission intensive pattern of Australia's production and consumption system. Using the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework we model all system interactions to understand the contributions of large‐scale changes in technology, infrastructure, and lifestyle to decoupling the economy from the environment. The modeling shows a considerable reduction in natural resource use, while energy and water use decrease to a much lesser extent because a reduction in natural resource consumption creates a trade‐off in energy use. It also shows that trade and economic growth may continue, but at a reduced rate compared with a business‐as‐usual scenario. The findings of our modeling are discussed in light of the large body of literature on dematerialization, eco‐efficiency, and rebound effects that may occur when efficiency is increased. We argue that Australia cannot rely on incremental efficiency gains but has to undergo a sustainability transition to achieve a low carbon future to keep in line with the international effort to avoid climate change and resource use conflicts. We touch upon the institutional changes that would be required to guide a sustainability transition in the Australian economy, such as an emission trading scheme.