Mathematical elements of attack risk analysis for mountain pine beetles

Three different mathematical approaches are combined to develop a spatial framework in which risk of mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack on individual hosts may be assessed. A density-based partial differential equation model describes the dispersal and focusing behavior of MPB. A local projection onto a system of ordinary differential equations predicts the consequences of the density equations at individual hosts. The bifurcation diagram of these equations provides a natural division into categories of risk for each host. A stem-competition model links host vigor to stand age and demographics. Coupled together, these models illuminate spatial risk structures which may also shed light on the role of climatic variables in population outbreaks. Preliminary results suggest that stand microclimate has much greater influence on risk of attack than host vigor and stand age.     

A model for the conquest of a tree by bark beetles

A model for the interaction between attacking bark beetles and a tree is developed and discussed. It is shown that in addition to the more intuitive outcomes where the tree wins or the beetles win, it is also deduced that under certain conditions there may exist a stable coexistence (at least for some period of time) between the beetles and a living tree. Finally, it is demonstrated that the outcome of the tree-beetle interaction often depends on initial conditions such as the number of colonizing beetles.
These results are discussed with reference to empirical findings, as well as to the development of proper population dynamics models for bark beetles in a forest stand, and models developed for assisting forest managers in avoiding bark beetle outbreaks and for minimizing the damage caused by a bark beetle outbreak.     

Modeling the Expansion of an Introduced Tree Disease

Pine wilt disease is caused by the introduced pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, for which the vector is the pine sawyer beetle, Monochamus alternatus. Native Japanese pines, black pine (Pinus thunbergii) and red pine (P. densiflora), are extremely sensitive to the nematode's infection, and the parasite has been expanding nationwide in the last few decades, despite intensive control efforts. To understand the parasite's range expansion in Japan, we modeled the dynamics of the pines and the beetle that disperses the nematode, using an integro-difference equation in a one-dimensional space. Based on field data collected in Japan, we investigated the dependence of the parasite's rate of range expansion on the eradication rate of the beetle, the initial pine density, and the beetle dispersal ability. Our model predicts several results. (1) The Allee Effect operates on beetle reproduction, and consequently the parasite cannot invade a pine stand, once the beetle density decreases below a threshold. (2) The distribution of the dispersal distance of the beetles critically affects the expansion rate of the disease. As the fraction of the beetles that travel over long distance increases from zero, the range expansion accelerates sharply. (3) However, too frequent long-range dispersal results in a failure of the parasite invasion due to the Allee Effect, suggesting the importance of correctly assessing the beetle's mobility to predict the speed of range expansion of the parasite. (4) As the eradication rate is increased, the range expansion speed decreases gradually at first and suddenly drops to zero at a specific value of the eradication rate. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An overview of the TAMBEETLE model of Dendroctonus frontalis population dynamics

Population dynamics of the southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis has been the subject of intensive research in the USA for more than a decade. TAMBEETLE, an acronym for the mechanistic model of population dynamics of D. frontalis , was developed to abstract contemporary knowledge on the insect. This model was developed as a joint venture between the Biosystems Research Group of Industrial Engineering and the Department of Entomology at Texas A&M University. The approach used to develop the model and the structure of component submodels is described. Research leading to the development of the model involved a series of field and laboratory studies aimed at various aspects of the population system of the insect. This research is reviewed. Important areas needing further research are identified. Studies dealing with factors involved in initiation of infestions, biome-level epidemiology, host susceptibility, stand modeling, and dynamics of within-tree mortality were emphasized as important topics for further research.     

Radial and stand‐level thinning treatments: 15‐year growth response of legacy ponderosa and Jeffrey pine trees

Restoration efforts to improve vigor of large, old trees and decrease risk to high‐intensity wildland fire and drought‐mediated insect mortality often include reductions in stand density. We examined 15‐year growth response of old ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi) trees in northeastern California, U.S.A. to two levels of thinning treatments compared to an untreated (control) area. Density reductions involved radial thinning (thinning 9.1 m around individual trees) and stand thinning. Annual tree growth in the stand thinning increased immediately following treatment and was sustained over the 15 years. In contrast, radial thinning did not increase growth, but slowed decline compared to control trees. Available soil moisture was higher in the stand thinning than the control for 5 years post‐treatment and likely extended seasonal tree growth. Our results show that large, old trees can respond to restoration thinning treatments, but that the level of thinning impacts this response. Stand thinning must be sufficiently intensive to improve old tree growth and health, in part due to increasing available soil moisture. Importantly, focusing stand density reductions around the immediate neighborhood of legacy trees was insufficient to elicit a growth response, calling into question treatments attempting to increase vigor of legacy trees while still maintaining closed canopies in dry, coniferous forest types. Although radial thinning did not affect tree growth rates, this treatment may still achieve other resource objectives not studied here, such as protecting wildlife habitat, reducing the risk of severe fire injury, and decreasing susceptibility to bark beetle attacks.     

Death of vigorous trees benefits bark beetles

Bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) are commonly associated with live host trees that are stressed, a relationship that has been attributed to lower host defenses or greater nutritional quality of these trees. However, most bark beetle species commonly inhabit freshly dead trees where induced host defenses are absent. In this study, we investigate the role of tree vigor at the time of death for pine engraver bark beetles, Ips pini (Say), breeding in freshly dead jack pine, Pinus banksiana Lamb. As indices of tree vigor, we considered tree size, phloem thickness, and several measures of recent growth rate (last year's growth increment, mean annual increment and basal area increment in the past 5 and 10 years, and periodic growth ratio). We examined the relationship between these indices in three stands, aged 60, 77, and 126 years, and found that phloem thickness, previously shown to have a strong positive effect on bark beetle reproduction, was only weakly associated with tree growth rate and inconsistently related to tree size among the three stands. To examine the effects of tree vigor on pine engraver reproduction, we felled 20 trees of various sizes from the 77-year-old stand, and experimentally established breeding males and females in 25-cm-long sections. Offspring were collected and characteristics of breeding galleries were measured. Using stepwise regression, we consistently found that indices associated with tree growth rate best explained beetle reproductive performance, as they were positively related to parental male and female establishment on logs, female reproductive success, length of egg galleries, proportion of eggs resulting in emerged offspring, and negatively related to the length of the post-egg gallery. Surprisingly, phloem thickness had no unique effect on pine engraver reproduction, except for a weak negative effect on the establishment success of parental females. The strong effect of tree vigor observed in this study suggests that substantial mortality of vigorous trees, such as caused by windthrow, can contribute to significant increases in bark beetle populations that could trigger outbreaks in living trees. Received: 3 February 1999 / Accepted: 27 April 1999     

Localized outbreak of a willow leaf beetle: plant vigor or natural enemies?

The possible roles of plant quality (vigor) and natural enemies in the development of a localized out-break of the leaf beetle Galerucella lineola (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in a stand of Salix cinerea were investigated. Caged and uncaged larvae on six bushes in the outbreak area were compared with caged and uncaged larvae on six bushes in an adjacent nonoutbreak area in terms of performance. In 1997, when the studies were performed, the natural density of the insect (beetles plus eggs) was six times higher in the outbreak area compared with the nonoutbreak area. Even though the vigor (measured as shoot length) of bushes in the outbreak was 72% higher than that of bushes in the nonoutbreak area, we found no difference between areas in the performance (survival, developmental time, pupal weight) of caged larvae or in the willingness of caged females to lay eggs. Among larvae exposed to natural enemies, the disappearance rate was significantly higher in the nonoutbreak area. The density of generalist predators was significantly higher in the nonoutbreak than in the outbreak area. We conclude that differences in plant quality, despite the observed difference in plant vigor, could not explain the observed difference in beetle density between areas. Lower predation pressure in the outbreak area could, however, not be excluded as a possible reason for the higher density of leaf beetles in this area. Received: October 18, 1999 / Accepted: February 4, 2000     

Lodgepole pine forest age class dynamics and susceptibility to mountain pine beetle attack

Because mountain pine beetle attack mature pine stands, an understanding of forest age class dynamics is important to managing forests within the distribution of the beetle. The assumed theoretical negative exponential forest age distribution provides an estimate when ecosystem dynamics are in equilibrium. This study investigates the dynamics of forest age distribution for non-equilibrium ecosystem dynamics, which result primarily from large and irregular stand-replacement fire disturbances that alter the forest age distribution. A model experiment using the SEM-LAND model on a 1 million ha lodgepole pine forest landscape was conducted to estimate how the proportion of susceptible area could be influenced by different fire regimes. The results of the simulation suggest that the temporal dynamics of the area susceptible to mountain pine beetle attack are complex and depend on the fire history of the study area, if the area is experiencing large and irregular stand-replacement fires. The age range of the lodgepole pine forest stands susceptible to mountain pine beetle attack might significantly affect the estimate of the area susceptible to attack.     

Convergence Between Dung Beetle Assemblages of a Post-Mining Vegetational Chronosequence and Unmined Dune Forest

Abstract In Maputaland, South Africa vegetative and microclimatic changes on mined dunes drive the composition of the dung beetle fauna toward convergence with that in natural dune forest on unmined dunes. We assessed the pattern of these changes using a 23‐year vegetational chronosequence on mined dunes, which passes from grassland (approximately 1 year) to open Acacia shrubland thicket to Acacia karroo‐dominated woodland (approximately 9 years). Across this sequence, which represents successional stages in the restoration of dune forest, there was a sequential trend toward convergence in dung beetle species composition in both the entire species complement and, particularly, in shade specialist species. However, species abundance patterns showed a trend toward convergence only in early chronosequence Acacia woodland, followed by a decline in similarity between dung beetle assemblages of older Acacia woodland and unmined natural forest. This trend toward divergence was common both to the entire species complement, which includes widespread taxa, and to species endemic to Maputaland or the east coast. These trends in similarity and dissimilarity between dung beetle assemblages closely parallel the greater physiognomic and microclimatic similarity between early Acacia woodland and natural forest and the relative dissimilarity of older Acacia woodland. In conclusion, although percentage similarities between dung beetle assemblages of approximately 12‐year woodland and natural forests were comparable with those between each natural forest stand, decline in similarity in older woodland stands suggests that lasting convergence in dung beetle species abundance will only be attained once the Acacia woodland is replaced by secondary natural forest.     

山杨林林分密度效应动态模拟

 本文用林窗模型研究了小兴安岭南坡山杨林林分密度动态过程,在给定林分初始条件后,模拟了林分密度、断面积、生物量、叶面积指数和生产力150年的变化。用林分密度效应的3/2法则和产量恒定法则检验模拟林分,结果表明模拟林分密度发展与理论预测相符合。通过本文的研究既检验了林窗动态模型又印证了林分密度效应理论。     

Density related plasticity in stand-level spatial distribution of the ambrosia beetle, Platypus koryoensis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

We tested the hypothesis that the population density of ambrosia beetles at the stand level influences the spatial distribution of infested trees. We evaluated the spatial distribution of the ambrosia beetle, Platypus koryoensis (Murayama) in three oak forest stands that varied in beetle population density using a multi-year trapping survey. We used these data to inform a clustering analysis based on aggregation indices using the SADIE software. Four important findings emerged: (1) the spatial distribution pattern of P. koryoensis at the stand level changed as the population density of the beetle varied; (2) at low population densities, beetle distribution was contagious at the stand level; (3) as beetle population densities increased, the spatial distribution of infested trees became random, potentially due to beetle avoidance of mass attacked trees; and (4) at high beetle population densities, the spatial distribution of infested trees became contagious, possibly due to temporal changes in location of the attack epicenter within the stand. Our results support the hypothesis that beetle population density has consequences for the spatial distribution of infested trees at the within-stand scale. We conclude that the spatial distribution of infested trees is flexible in response to beetle population density, suggesting that beetle attack behaviors are mediated by one or more density-dependent effects.     

Spatial Distribution of Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks in Relation to Climate and Stand Characteristics： A Dendroecological Analysis

Principal components analysis, followed by K-means cluster analysis, was used to detect variations in the timing and magnitude of Pinus contorta Dough ex Loud. growth releases attributed to mountain pine beetle outbreaks in 31 stands of central British Columbia. Four major growth release patterns were identified from 1970 to 2000. Variations in the timing of growth releases among clustered stands corresponded well to aerial survey data indicating the timing of beetle outbreaks in the study area. Redundancy analysis was used to determine how variations in the timing and magnitude of growth releases attributed to beetle outbreaks changed with variations in climate or stand conditions over the study area. The first RDA axis, which accounted for 39% of the variations in growth patterns among stands, was significantly （P〈0.05） correlated with gradients in the percentage of pine in stands killed by mountain pine beetle, summer aridity, variation in summer precipitation, distance from initial infestation site, average pine age, and maximum August temperatures. The second RDA axis explained 6% of the variations and was significantly correlated with gradients in the beetle climate suitability index, extreme cold month temperatures, and site index. Comparisons of growth release patterns with aerial survey data and redundancy analyses indicated that dendrochronological techniques are useful for identifying mountain pine beetle outbreaks in central British Columbia, particularly among stands that had a density high enough to produce a growth release signal. Provided future studies account for interannual weather fluctuations, identification of growth increases due to stand thinning caused by beetle outbreaks will be useful for reconstructing the history of beetle outbreaks over much longer time periods.     

Forest types of northern Sweden

An Appalachian-oak forest in a small montane watershed was sampled to calibrate and test an existing forest dynamics simulation model. Indices developed in earlier studies by Whittaker were used to estimate the response of different tree species to soil moisture. As is the case in many forest modeling applications, neither detailed environmental data at a micro-spatial scale nor quantitative historical stand data were available for the study.A protocol of both model parameter estimation and simulation output evaluation is developed. The method involves simulation experiments under which the model parameters are allowed to vary systematically with respect to environmental control variables, allowing one to generate a field of potential simulation results that can be searched for patterns shared by the observed data. The degree to which common patterns emerge provides a measure of model sensitivity to patterns at the scale of interest. This protocol can provide an appraisal of the appropriateness of a simulation model to the system of interest and can be used to assess the performance of the model in future applications. Nomenclature: Little, E.B. 1971. Atlas of United States trees. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.     

Long‐term successional forest dynamics: species and community responses to climatic variability

Question: Are trees sensitive to climatic variability, and do tree species differ in their responses to climatic variability? Does sensitivity of forest communities to climatic variability depend on stand composition? Location: Mixed young forest at Walker Branch Watershed near Oak Ridge, East Tennessee, USA. Methods: Using a long‐term dataset (1967–2006), we analyzed temporal forest dynamics at the tree and species level, and community dynamics for forest stands that differed in initial species composition (i.e., chestnut oak, oak–hickory, pine, and yellow poplar stands). Using summer drought and growing season temperature as defined climate drivers, we evaluated relationships between forest dynamics and climate across levels of organization. Results: Over the four‐decade study period, forest communities underwent successional change and substantially increased in biomass. Variation in summer drought and growing season temperature contributed to temporal biomass dynamics for some tree species, but not for others. Stand‐level responses to climatic variability were related to the responses of component species, except in pine stands. Pinus echinata, the dominant species in pine stands, decreased over time due to periodic outbreaks of pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis). These outbreaks at Walker Branch could not be directly related to climatic conditions. Conclusions: The results indicate that sensitivity of developing forests to climatic variability is stand type‐dependent, and hence is a function of species composition. However, in the long term, direct effects of climatic variability on forest dynamics may be small relative to autogenic successional processes or climate‐related insect outbreaks. Empirical studies testing for interactions between forest succession and climatic variability are needed.     

Spread of the pinewood nematode vectored by the Japanese pine sawyer: modeling and analytical approaches

The pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is the causative agent of pine wilt of Pinus thunbergii and P. densiflora in Japan. The nematode is vectored by cerambycid beetles of the genus Monochamus. It is inferred to have been introduced from North America early in the 1900s and then to have distributed in China, Korea, and Taiwan. Intensive and/or long-term studies of pine wilt systems have elucidated the pattern and mechanism of the nematode’s spread within a pine stand, dispersal of vector beetles, and spread pattern of pine wilt within a prefecture. The modeling of nematode spread over pine stands, which involves beetle reproduction within a pine stand, has been developing and should elucidate the factors influencing the rate at which the nematode range expands. In this review, we summarize the biologies of the nematode, beetle, and tree, and then characterize the spread of the nematode within a pine stand, locally over pine stands, and regionally over unit administrative districts. Local and regional spreading of the nematode is related primarily to long-distance dispersal by insect vectors and to the artificial transportation of pine logs infested with the nematode and its vector, respectively.     

BCWEEVIL: A simulation model of the joint population dynamics between spruce weevil and Sitka spruce,over the lifetime of a plantation

The spruce terminal weevil Pissodes strobi (Peck) is a major pest in western spruces, attacking trees of all ages beyond the juvenile stage, killing the leader and causing tree distortion. This paper describes a computer simulation model of the joint population dynamics within this tree/pest system, over the lifetime of a plantation, and is combined with the Province of British Columbia's Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS) to drive individual tree growth and stand establishment and development. The model differs from current models of this system, and of other similar systems, in two important ways: (1) it simulates the entire life of a stand, from planting until harvest, and (2) it is based on the underlying biological processes that govern behavior of individual weevils on and in each tree.Each model simulation begins by planting a stand using tree materials from seed or clonal hedge orchards, choosing trees either individually and independently or in groups represented as clones or families. Stand growth and mortality are advanced through a juvenile period, after which weevils appear in the stand. From this time until harvest, the model simulates daily changes in the weevil populations on each tree, tracking mortality, oviposition, and juvenile maturation and emergence, as well as weevil movement from tree to tree. Once a year, the code projects tree mortality and growth, taking into account within-stand competition and damage to leaders caused by weevil attacks. At harvest, the model computes an estimate of the merchantable timber produced by the stand.As illustrations of model output, we present (1) simulated average numbers of adult and juvenile weevils in stands generated using materials from seed orchards, both throughout a single season and also through the years from stand planting until harvest; and (2) the differential effect of weevil damage on two tree genotypes, one resistant and one susceptible, in a stand composed of adjacent clonal blocks. The results of model simulations are in agreement with some of the population dynamics statistics observed in plantations, suggesting that the model reflects biological realism and can be used as a research or management tool.     

Prevention of imbibitional injury in low vigor soybean embryonic axes by osmotic control of water uptake

Deterioration of soybean [ Glycine max (L.) Merr. cv. Essex] seeds during accelerated aging at 41°C and 100% relative humidity predisposes the embryonic axis to injury during the initial period of imbibition. This injury was prevented or greatly reduced in severity when excised axes were imbibed on blotters containing 30% polyethylene glycol which slowed the rate of water uptake and when axes were pre-equilibrated to a high moisture level. Rates of water uptake by "high"(no treatment) and "low vigor"(accelerated aged) excised axes were identical. However, high vigor axes tolerated rapid water uptake during early imbition, whereas low vigor axes did not. Leakage of electrolytes during early imbibition was nearly six times greater in low than in high vigor axes. Polyethylene glycol significantly reduced the leakage of electrolytes from both low and high vigor axes. The data are in agreement with the hypothesis that seed deterioration in soybeans involves membrane changes which may predispose embryonic tissues to injury during imbibition. Reduction of the rate of water uptake during the initial period of imbibition would allow extra time for membrane repair or rearrangement, thus permitting the tissues to develop in a more orderly manner. The data indicate that deterioration in soybean seeds involves, at least in part, a decrease in ability of seed axes to tolerate rapid water uptake at the start of imbibition and that this weakness may be compensated by osmotic control of water uptake.     

Saproxylic beetle diversity in a managed boreal forest: importance of stand characteristics and forestry conservation measures

Saproxylic beetles constitute a significant proportion of boreal forest biodiversity. However, the long history of timber production in Fennoscandia has significantly reduced the availability of dead wood and is considered a threat to the conservation of saproxylic beetle assemblages. Therefore, since the mid‐1990s dead wood retention in harvested stands has formed an integral part of silvicultural practices. However, the contribution of this biodiversity‐orientated management approach to conserving saproxylic beetle assemblages in boreal forest landscapes that include production forestry remains largely untested. We examined differences in resident saproxylic beetle assemblages among stands under different management in a boreal forest landscape in Central Sweden, and in particular stands managed according to new conservation‐orientated practices. We also investigated the relationship between beetle diversity and forest stand characteristics. Bark of coarse woody debris (CWD) was sieved for beetles in old managed stands, unmanaged nature reserves, and set‐aside areas, and clear‐cut stands harvested according to certification guidelines [new forestry (NF) clear‐cuts]. All stand types contributed significantly to the total diversity of beetles found. While stand size, position, and distance to nearest reserve were unimportant, both the quality and the quantity of CWD in stands contributed significantly to explaining beetle abundance and species richness. This extends the previous findings for red‐listed invertebrates, and shows that heterogeneous substrate quality and a range of management practices are necessary to maintain saproxylic beetle diversity in boreal forest landscapes that include production forestry. The unique abiotic conditions in combination with the abundant and varied CWD associated with NF clear‐cuts form an important component of forest stand heterogeneity for saproxylic beetles. It is thus essential that sufficient, diverse, CWD is retained in managed boreal landscapes to ensure the conservation of boreal saproxylic beetle assemblages.     

Effects of Dwarf Mistletoe on Stand Structure of Lodgepole Pine Forests 21-28 Years Post-Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in Central Oregon

Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests are widely distributed throughout North America and are subject to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) epidemics, which have caused mortality over millions of hectares of mature trees in recent decades. Mountain pine beetle is known to influence stand structure, and has the ability to impact many forest processes. Dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium americanum) also influences stand structure and occurs frequently in post-mountain pine beetle epidemic lodgepole pine forests. Few studies have incorporated both disturbances simultaneously although they co-occur frequently on the landscape. The aim of this study is to investigate the stand structure of lodgepole pine forests 21–28 years after a mountain pine beetle epidemic with varying levels of dwarf mistletoe infection in the Deschutes National Forest in central Oregon. We compared stand density, stand basal area, canopy volume, proportion of the stand in dominant/codominant, intermediate, and suppressed cohorts, average height and average diameter of each cohort, across the range of dwarf mistletoe ratings to address differences in stand structure. We found strong evidence of a decrease in canopy volume, suppressed cohort height, and dominant/codominant cohort diameter with increasing stand-level dwarf mistletoe rating. There was strong evidence that as dwarf mistletoe rating increases, proportion of the stand in the dominant/codominant cohort decreases while proportion of the stand in the suppressed cohort increases. Structural differences associated with variable dwarf mistletoe severity create heterogeneity in this forest type and may have a significant influence on stand productivity and the resistance and resilience of these stands to future biotic and abiotic disturbances. Our findings show that it is imperative to incorporate dwarf mistletoe when studying stand productivity and ecosystem recovery processes in lodgepole pine forests because of its potential to influence stand structure.     

Effects of fire and spruce beetle outbreak legacies on the disturbance regime of a subalpine forest in Colorado

Aim There is increasing research attention being given to the role of interactions among natural disturbances in ecosystem processes. We studied the interactions between fire and spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirkby) disturbances in a Colorado subalpine forest. The central questions of this research were: (1) How does fire history influence stand susceptibility to beetle outbreak? And conversely, (2) How does prior occurrence of a beetle outbreak influence stand susceptibility to subsequent fire? Methods We reconstructed the spatial disturbance history in a c. 4600 ha area by first identifying distinct patches in the landscape on aerial photographs. Then, in the field we determined the disturbance history of each patch by dating stand origin, fire scars, dates of mortality of dead trees, and releases on remnant trees. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to overlay disturbance by fire and spruce beetle. Results and main conclusions The majority of stands in the study area arose following large, infrequent, severe fires occurring in c. 1700, 1796 and 1880. The study area was also affected by a severe spruce beetle outbreak in the 1940s and a subsequent low‐severity fire. Stands that originated following stand‐replacing fire in the late nineteenth century were less affected by the beetle outbreak than older stands. Following the beetle outbreak, stands less affected by the outbreak were more affected by low‐severity fire than stands more severely affected by the outbreak. The reduced susceptibility to low‐severity fire possibly resulted from increased moisture on the forest floor following beetle outbreak. The landscape mosaic of this subalpine forest was strongly influenced by the interactions between fire and insect disturbances.