A 30000 year record of vegetation dynamics at a semi-arid locale in the Great Basin

Abstract. Plant macrofossils extracted from fossil woodrat (Neotoma spp.) middens at a single locale in the northwestern Great Basin were used to examine vegetation dynamics during the last 30 000 yr. Although the modern assemblage of xeric species at the study site is a recent occurrence, a large proportion of the modern plant taxa near the study locale were also found 12 000 - 30 000 yr BP. The persistence of extant species through time was likely facilitated by within-species genetic diversity and the formation of coenospecies. The diverse topographic and microhabitat features in the northwestern Great Basin also allowed different species to coexist during glacial periods. Changes in species composition occurred during two time intervals: 20 000 - 30 000 and 10 000 - 12 000 yr BP. Vegetation changes during 20 000 - 30 000 yr BP were cyclic; community composition oscillated between two groups of taxa. Vegetation changes between 10 000 - 12 000 yr BP occurred during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and were largely directional from the Pleistocene assemblages through two transition assemblages to a Holocene assemblage. These changes in species composition generally reflect changes in climate. The presence of relatively mesic species during 10 000 - 30 000 yr BP is consistent with the regional late-Pleistocene climate, and the gradual loss of relatively mesic species during the Holocene parallels the change to a more xeric climate. Contrasted with other areas of North America and Europe, the magnitude of vegetation changes at our study area were relatively small. Furthermore, the persistence of many species through time at this site in the northwestern Great Basin also differs from results at other study sites in North America and Europe. These differences are probably related to land form characteristics and genetic diversity within species.     

Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach

Aim To understand drivers of vegetation type distribution and sensitivity to climate change. Location Interior Alaska. Methods A logistic regression model was developed that predicts the potential equilibrium distribution of four major vegetation types: tundra, deciduous forest, black spruce forest and white spruce forest based on elevation, aspect, slope, drainage type, fire interval, average growing season temperature and total growing season precipitation. The model was run in three consecutive steps. The hierarchical logistic regression model was used to evaluate how scenarios of changes in temperature, precipitation and fire interval may influence the distribution of the four major vegetation types found in this region. Results At the first step, tundra was distinguished from forest, which was mostly driven by elevation, precipitation and south to north aspect. At the second step, forest was separated into deciduous and spruce forest, a distinction that was primarily driven by fire interval and elevation. At the third step, the identification of black vs. white spruce was driven mainly by fire interval and elevation. The model was verified for Interior Alaska, the region used to develop the model, where it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 60–83%. When the model was independently validated for north‐west Canada, it predicted vegetation distribution among the steps with an accuracy of 53–85%. Black spruce remains the dominant vegetation type under all scenarios, potentially expanding most under warming coupled with increasing fire interval. White spruce is clearly limited by moisture once average growing season temperatures exceeded a critical limit (+2 °C). Deciduous forests expand their range the most when any two of the following scenarios are combined: decreasing fire interval, warming and increasing precipitation. Tundra can be replaced by forest under warming but expands under precipitation increase. Main conclusion The model analyses agree with current knowledge of the responses of vegetation types to climate change and provide further insight into drivers of vegetation change.     

A 12 000-year record of environmental change in the Lomond Hills, Fife, Scotland: Vegetational and climatic variability

The Lomond Hills of Fife, an isolated upland area rising to over 500 m, provide an opportunity to investigate the effect of altitude on vegetation and climate in an area otherwise dominated by lower-lying land. The West Lomond site contains sediments of the Devensian Late-glacial period; they reveal a well-defined sequence of Bolling-Older Dryas-Allerod-Younger Dryas events, commencing ca. 12 190 radiocarbon years B.P. and a probable Amphi-Atlantic Oscillation between ca. 11 040 and 10 800 B.P. The Holocene record is constrained by low sediment input but does reveal a woodland presence at this altitude, dominated byBetula andCorylus. Size statistics forBetula pollen are presented and the implications of the vegetational and climatic record are discussed. The traditional view of a smooth progress towards more temperate conditions following the Younger Dryas is not supported; between 10 180 and 9120 B.P., three cooler periods are inferred, the earliest of which may belong to a terminal phase of the Younger Dryas. Comparative pollen ‘influx’ data strongly suggest thatQuercus,Ulmus andAlnus were not present locally. As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that the demise of woodland, from ca. 5950 B.P., was a result of exposure. Pollen indicative of human impact was probably derived from areas of lowland agricultural activity from ca. 5330 B.P. onwards.     

Mountain goat survival in coastal Alaska: Effects of age,sex, and climate

Ecological theory predicts that individual survival should vary between sex and age categories due to differences in allocation of nutritional resources for growth and reproductive activities. During periods of environmental stress, such relationships may be exacerbated, and affect sex and age classes differently. We evaluated support for hypotheses about the relative roles of sex, age, and winter and summer climate on the probability of mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) survival in coastal Alaska. Specifically, we used known-fates analyses (Program MARK) to model the effects of age, sex, and climatic variation on survival using data collected from 279 radio-marked mountain goats (118 M, 161 F) in 9 separate study areas during 1977–2008. Models including age, sex, winter snowfall, and average daily summer temperature (during Jul–Aug) best explained variation in survival probability of mountain goats. Specifically, our findings revealed that old animals (9+ yr) have lower survival than younger animals. In addition, males tended to have lower survival than females, though differences only existed among prime-aged adult (5–8 yr) and old (9+ yr) age classes. Winter climate exerted the strongest effects on mountain goat survival; summer climate, however, was significant and principally influenced survival during the following winter via indirect effects. Furthermore, old animals were more sensitive to the effects of winter conditions than young or prime-aged animals. These findings detail how climate interacts with sex and age characteristics to affect mountain goat survival. Critically, we provide baseline survival rate statistics across various age, sex, and climate scenarios. These data will assist conservation and management of mountain goats by enabling detailed, model-based demographic forecasting of human and/or climate-based population impacts. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Late Quaternary vegetation and climate change in the Panama Basin: Palynological evidence from marine cores ODP 677B and TR 163-38

The Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental history from Pacific slopes of the western Andes is reconstructed by pollen analysis of 32 samples from two marine sediment cores from the Panama Basin, eastern equatorial Pacific: core ODP 677B (83°44.2200′ W, 1°12.1440′ N, 3473 m water depth) is 185 cm long and spans the last 39,410 years, core TR 163-38 (81.583° W, 1.337° N, 2200 m water depth) is 103 cm long and covers the last 17,380 years. Six ecological groups were established: mangrove, brackish and fresh water swamps, terra firma lowland forests, broad range taxa, Andean forests, and open vegetation. A good correspondence was found between the changes of these ecological groups in the two cores. The records evidence the continuous presence of all vegetation types during the last 39,410 years and specially the uninterrupted occurrence of tropical rain forest. They record a development from: (1) a cold and humid phase (39,410-28,120 yr cal BP) with moderately high sea levels, (2) the coldest and driest phase in the record (28,120-14,500 yr cal BP) accompanied by the lowest sea levels, (3) a transitional phase when sea level rose and humid conditions dominated, (4) a stage (11,300-5600 yr cal BP) of the highest sea levels and moisture conditions including a drier period ∼7000 yr BP, to (5) a final period (5600 yr cal BP-Present) when sea level reached its present height, humidity persisted, and indicators of disturbance expanded. Peaks in pollen and spore concentration, associated with high river discharge periods, indicate periods of higher precipitation around 33,500, 28,000 and 12,000-9000 yr cal BP. Although main vegetation responses seem to reflect rainfall and moisture variations, a good correspondence was found between δ¹⁸O values and percentages of Andean and lowland pollen, suggesting that vegetation also responded to tempearture changes.     

Herbaceous vegetation change in variable rangeland environments: The relative contribution of grazing and climatic variability

Abstract. A 44‐yr record of herbaceous vegetation change was analysed for three contrasting grazing regimes within a semi‐arid savanna to evaluate the relative contribution of confined livestock grazing and climatic variability as agents of vegetation change. Grazing intensity had a significant, directional effect on the relative composition of short‐ and mid‐grass response groups; their composition was significantly correlated with time since the grazing regimes were established. Interannual precipitation was not significantly correlated with response group composition. However, interannual precipitation was significantly correlated with total plant basal area while time since imposition of grazing regimes was not, but both interannual precipitation and time since the grazing regimes were established were significantly correlated with total plant density. Vegetation change was reversible even though the herbaceous community had been maintained in an altered state for ca. 60 yr by intensive livestock grazing. However, ca. 25 yr were required for the mid‐grass response group to recover following the elimination of grazing and recovery occurred intermittently. The increase in mid‐grass composition was associated with a significant decrease in total plant density and an increase in mean individual plant basal area. Therefore, we failed to reject the hypotheses based on the proportional change in relative response group composition with grazing intensity and the distinct effects of grazing and climatic variability on response group composition, total basal area and plant density. Long‐term vegetation change indicates that grazing intensity established the long‐term directional change in response group composition, but that episodic climate events defined the short‐term rate and trajectory of this change and determines the upper limit on total basal area. The occurrence of both directional and non‐directional vegetation responses were largely a function of (1) the unique responses of the various community attributes monitored and (2) the distinct temporal responses of these community attributes to grazing and climatic variation. This interpretation supports previous conclusions that individual ecosystems may exist in equilibrial and non‐equilibrial states at various temporal and spatial scales.     

Topographic and vegetation drivers of thermal heterogeneity along the boreal–grassland transition zone in western Canada: Implications for climate change refugia

Climate change refugia are areas that are relatively buffered from contemporary climate change and may be important safe havens for wildlife and plants under anthropogenic climate change. Topographic variation is an important driver of thermal heterogeneity, but it is limited in relatively flat landscapes, such as the boreal plain and prairie regions of western Canada. Topographic variation within this region is mostly restricted to river valleys and hill systems, and their effects on local climates are not well documented. We sought to quantify thermal heterogeneity as a function of topography and vegetation cover within major valleys and hill systems across the boreal–grassland transition zone.Using iButton data loggers, we monitored local temperature at four hills and 12 river valley systems that comprised a wide range of habitats and ecosystems in Alberta, Canada (N = 240), between 2014 and 2020. We then modeled monthly temperature by season as a function of topography and different vegetation cover types using general linear mixed effect models.Summer maximum temperatures (T _max) varied nearly 6°C across the elevation gradient sampled. Local summer mean (T _mean) and maximum (T _max) temperatures on steep, north‐facing slopes (i.e., low levels of potential solar radiation) were up to 0.70°C and 2.90°C cooler than highly exposed areas, respectively. T _max in incised valleys was between 0.26 and 0.28°C cooler than other landforms, whereas areas with greater terrain roughness experienced maximum temperatures that were up to 1.62°C cooler. We also found that forest cover buffered temperatures locally, with coniferous and mixedwood forests decreasing summer T _mean from 0.23 to 0.72°C and increasing winter T _min by up to 2°C, relative to non‐forested areas.Spatial predictions of temperatures from iButton data loggers were similar to a gridded climate product (ClimateNA), but the difference between them increased with potential solar radiation, vegetation cover, and terrain roughness.Species that can track their climate niche may be able to compensate for regional climate warming through local migrations to cooler microsites. Topographic and vegetation characteristics that are related to cooler local climates should be considered in the evaluation of future climate change impacts and to identify potential refugia from climate change.     

Diversification in tropics and subtropics following the mid‐Miocene climate change: A case study of the spider genus Nesticella

Caves may offer suitable refugia for troglophilic invertebrates during periods of unfavourable climatic conditions because of their stable microclimates. As a consequence, allopatric divergence from their epigean counterparts may occur, leading to formation of truly hypogean communities (the Climatic Relict Hypothesis). Unlike the well‐studied effects of Pleistocene glaciations, we know little about how ancient climate changes drove the development of cave‐dwelling organisms living at both middle and lower latitudes. We investigate the evolutionary history of the troglophilic spider genus Nesticella (Araneae, Nesticidae) in relation to Asian Neogene (23–2.6 Ma) climatic changes. Our analyses discern clear differences in the evolution of the two main clades of Nesticella, which occur in temperate/subtropical and tropical latitudes. Eastern Asian Nesticella gradually evolved greater sedentariness and a strict subterranean lifestyle starting from the middle Miocene Epoch (~15–14 Ma) in conjunction with the progressive deterioration of the climate and vegetational shifts. Caves appear to have acted as refugia because of their internally uniform temperature and humidity, which allowed these spiders to survive increasing external seasonality and habitat loss. In contrast, a uniform accumulation of lineages, long‐lasting times for dispersals and the lack of a comparable habitat shifting characterized the tropical lineage. This difference in pattern likely owes to the mild effects of climate change at low latitudes and the consequent lack of strong climatic drivers in tropical environments. Thus, the mid‐Miocene climatic shift appears to be the major evolutionary force shaping the ecological differences between Asian troglophilic invertebrates and the driver of the permanent hypogean communities in middle latitudes.     

Wetlands and global climate change: the role of wetland restoration in a changing world

Global climate change is recognized as a threat to species survival and the health of natural systems. Scientists worldwide are looking at the ecological and hydrological impacts resulting from climate change. Climate change will make future efforts to restore and manage wetlands more complex. Wetland systems are vulnerable to changes in quantity and quality of their water supply, and it is expected that climate change will have a pronounced effect on wetlands through alterations in hydrological regimes with great global variability. Wetland habitat responses to climate change and the implications for restoration will be realized differently on a regional and mega-watershed level, making it important to recognize that specific restoration and management plans will require examination by habitat. Floodplains, mangroves, seagrasses, saltmarshes, arctic wetlands, peatlands, freshwater marshes and forests are very diverse habitats, with different stressors and hence different management and restoration techniques are needed. The Sundarban (Bangladesh and India), Mekong river delta (Vietnam), and southern Ontario (Canada) are examples of major wetland complexes where the effects of climate change are evolving in different ways. Thus, successful long term restoration and management of these systems will hinge on how we choose to respond to the effects of climate change. How will we choose priorities for restoration and research? Will enough water be available to rehabilitate currently damaged, water-starved wetland ecosystems? This is a policy paper originally produced at the request of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands and incorporates opinion, interpretation and scientific-based arguments.     

Effects of ice and floods on vegetation in streams in cold regions: implications for climate change

Riparian zones support some of the most dynamic and species‐rich plant communities in cold regions. A common conception among plant ecologists is that flooding during the season when plants are dormant generally has little effect on the survival and production of riparian vegetation. We show that winter floods may also be of fundamental importance for the composition of riverine vegetation. We investigated the effects of ice formation on riparian and in‐stream vegetation in northern Sweden using a combination of experiments and observations in 25 reaches, spanning a gradient from ice‐free to ice‐rich reaches. The ice‐rich reaches were characterized by high production of frazil and anchor ice. In a couple of experiments, we exposed riparian vegetation to experimentally induced winter flooding, which reduced the dominant dwarf‐shrub cover and led to colonization of a species‐rich forb‐dominated vegetation. In another experiment, natural winter floods caused by anchor‐ice formation removed plant mimics both in the in‐stream and in the riparian zone, further supporting the result that anchor ice maintains dynamic plant communities. With a warmer winter climate, ice‐induced winter floods may first increase in frequency because of more frequent shifts between freezing and thawing during winter, but further warming and shortening of the winter might make them less common than today. If ice‐induced winter floods become reduced in number because of a warming climate, an important disturbance agent for riparian and in‐stream vegetation will be removed, leading to reduced species richness in streams and rivers in cold regions. Given that such regions are expected to have more plant species in the future because of immigration from the south, the distribution of species richness among habitats can be expected to show novel patterns.     

Phylogeography of the widespread fern Lemmaphyllum in East Asia: species differentiation and population dynamics in response to change in climate and geography

Past climatic oscillations and complex geodynamic processes had tremendous effects on the current distributions of species in East Asia. Previous studies have revealed that spermatophytes experienced different demographic histories and survived in multiple refuges. However, very few studies involving ferns have been conducted over a large geographical area like East Asia. The monophyletic epiphytic fern genus Lemmaphyllum, which is composed of four species, is widespread in East Asia and offers a good model for exploring how geoclimatic oscillations influence the diversification and demographic history of fern species. We studied the phylogeography of Lemmaphyllum based on 115 populations using plastid sequences and ecological niche modeling. A total of 91 haplotypes were found in Lemmaphyllum. Molecular clock estimation revealed that speciation coincided with the three phases of the Qingzang Movement at beginning of the third uplift of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The “Tanaka-Kaiyong Line” demarcated lineages within L. carnosum. The split of the mainland and island lineages of L. rostratum and L. carnosum var. microphyllum may have resulted from ancestral isolation whereby land-bridges acted as a “barrier” rather than as a “corridor” between mainland and island lineages. Multiple glacial refuges such as Sichuan Basin, Jinggangshan region, YGG region, HDM region, and the islands of the China East Sea during the LGM were revealed. The entities of Lemmaphyllum experienced species-specific demographic histories in response to the Pleistocene climate change. The case study of epiphytic ferns may provide evidences for understanding the migration of evergreen broad-leaf forest under climate oscillation.     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Phylogeography of a Holarctic nematode, Soboliphyme baturini, among mustelids: climate change, episodic colonization, and diversification in a complex host–parasite system

Phylogeography of Soboliphyme baturini , a nematode parasite in mustelids, is explored across Beringia. Sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide dehydrogenase subunit 4 genes were evaluated from 37 S. baturini , representing 19 localities throughout Alaska, Canada, and Siberia. A total of 30 haplotypes was recovered and maximum parsimony and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses support the recognition of a single species with a distribution extending from the Palearctic to the Nearctic. Within S. baturini , a host-specific partition in North America between Martes caurina and Martes americana was not identified. Instead, substantial geographic structure within S. baturini relates to the dynamic geological history of this northern region and especially the North Pacific Coast. Beringia and other coastal refugia along the western margin of North America played a large role during stadial maxima in the persistence and divergence of the parasite. Repeated events for biotic expansion and geographic colonization across the Bering Land Bridge and the Holarctic during glacial maxima in the Pleistocene appear to have facilitated at least two episodes of host-switching of this nematode among mustelids in populations now distributed in eastern Beringia.  © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2009, 96 , 651–663.     

Phylogeography of the mountain chickadee (Poecile gambeli): diversification, introgression, and expansion in response to Quaternary climate change

Since the late 1990s, molecular techniques have fuelled debate about the role of Pleistocene glacial cycles in structuring contemporary avian diversity in North America. The debate is still heated; however, there is widespread agreement that the Pleistocene glacial cycles forced the repeated contraction, fragmentation, and expansion of the North American biota. These demographic processes should leave genetic 'footprints' in modern descendants, suggesting that detailed population genetic studies of contemporary species provide the key to elucidating the impact of the late Quaternary (late Pleistocene-Holocene). We present an analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in the mountain chickadee (Poecile gambeli) in an attempt to examine the genetic evidence of the impact of the late Quaternary glacial cycles. Phylogenetic analyses reveal two strongly supported clades of P. gambeli: an Eastern Clade (Rocky Mountains and Great Basin) and a Western Clade (Sierra Nevada and Cascades). Post-glacial introgression is apparent between these two clades in the Mono Lake region of Central California. Within the Eastern Clade there is evidence of isolation-by-distance in the Rocky Mountain populations, and of limited gene flow into and around the Great Basin. Coalescent analysis of genetic variation in the Western Clade indicates that northern (Sierra Nevada/Cascades) and southern (Transverse/Peninsular Ranges) populations have been isolated and evolving independently for nearly 60,000 years.     

Biogeography and evolution of Abies (Pinaceae) in the Mediterranean Basin: the roles of long‐term climatic change and glacial refugia

Aim The genus Abies exemplifies plant diversification related to long‐term climatic, geological and evolutionary changes. Today, the Mediterranean firs comprise nine species, one natural hybrid and several varieties. Here I summarize current knowledge concerning the origin and evolution of the genus Abies in the Mediterranean Basin and propose a comprehensive hypothesis to explain the isolation and speciation pattern of Mediterranean firs. Location The Mediterranean Basin. Methods The literature on Abies was reviewed, focusing on the morphology, fossil records, molecular ecology, phytosociology and biogeography of the genus in the Mediterranean Basin. Results Abies fossils from the western Mediterranean indicate a wide Tertiary circum‐Mediterranean distribution of the Abies ancestor. Palaeogeographical data also suggest a single eastern Mediterranean Tertiary ancestor. Following the Miocene to Pliocene climate crisis and marine transgressions, the ancestor of the northern Mediterranean firs is hypothesized to have separated into two eastern groups, one on the Balkan Peninsula and the other in Asia Minor. However, land bridges may have permitted gene flow at times. A southward migration of A. alba to refugia, where older fir species may have remained isolated since the Miocene, could explain recent findings indicating that morphologically distant species are more closely related than expected based on such morphological classification. Main conclusions The Abies genus appears to have undergone significant morphological differentiation that does not necessarily imply reproductive isolation. That is, long‐term Mediterranean Basin dryness along a south‐eastern to north‐western gradient may have caused an initial Miocene–Pliocene speciation sequence. Pleistocene glacial cycles probably forced migrations to occur, leading to repeated contact between fir species in glacial refugia.     

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees (Contopus virens) and Red‐eyed Vireos (Vireo olivaceus) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated‐detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit improved only marginally when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red‐eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. The weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicated that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change influencing the distributions of these species and, more importantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.