How to obtain a precise and representative estimate for parameters in LCA

Background, Aim and Scope  Quite often there is need for precise and representative parameters in LCA studies. Probably the most relevant have direct influence on the functional unit, whose definition is crucial in the conduct of any LCA. Changes in the functional unit show directly in LCI and LCIA results. In comparative assertions, a bias in the functional unit may lead to a bias in the overall conclusions. Since quantitative data for the functional unit, such as geometric dimensions and specific weight, often vary, the question arises how to determine the functional unit, especially if a comparative assertion shall be representative for a region or market. Aim and scope of the study is to develop and apply methods for obtaining precise and representative estimates for the functional unit as one important parameter in an LCA study. Materials and Methods  Statistical sampling is applied in order to get empirical estimates for the weight of yoghurt cups, as a typical parameter for the functional unit. We used a two-stage sampling design, with stratified sampling in the first stage and three different sampling designs in the second stage, namely stratified, clustered, and a posteriori sampling. Sampling designs are motivated and described. In a case study, they are each used to determined a representative weight for 150 g yoghurt cups in Berlin, at the point of sale and within a specific time. In the first sampling stage, food markets are randomly selected, while in the second stage, yoghurt cups in these food markets are sampled. The sampling methods are applicable due to newly available internet data. These data sources and their shortcomings are described. Results  The random sampling procedure yields representative estimates, which are compared to figures for market leaders, i.e. yoghurt cups with very high occurrence in the supermarkets. While single types of yoghurt cups showed moderate uncertainty, representative estimates were highly precise. Discussion results show, for one, the performance of the applied statistical estimation procedures, and they show further that adding more information in the estimation procedure (on the shape of the cup, on the type of plastic, on the specific brand) helps reducing uncertainty. Conclusions  As conclusions, estimates and their uncertainty depend on the measurement procedure in a sensitive manner; any uncertainty information should be coupled with information on the measurement procedure, and it is recommended to use statistical sampling in order to reduce uncertainty for important parameters of an LCA study. Recommendations and Perspectives  Results for market leaders differed considerably from representative estimates. This implies to not use market leader data, or data with a high market share, as substitute for representative data in LCA studies. Statistical sampling has been barely used for Life Cycle Assessment. It turned out to be a feasible means for obtaining highly precise and representative estimates for the weight of yoghurt cups in the case study, based on empirical analysis. Further research is recommended in order to detect which parameters should best be investigated in LCA case studies; which data sources are available and recommended, and which sampling designs are appropriate for different application cases. ESS-Submission Editor: Seungdo Kim. PhD (kimseun@msu.edu)     

A Quantitative Comparison of Two Zooplankton Sampling Methods,a Plankton Trap and a Towed Net,in the Baltic

A comparison between a large plankton trap with a capacity of 23 litres and a modern towed net was made in the course of zooplankton production studies in the Baltic. On the average, the net efficiency was 75% of that of the trap. Both methods were equally efficient in catching naupliar stages of copepods. The net efficiency was especially low during the zooplankton maximum for adult copepods and cladocerans (41 and 51%, respectively), probably due to the active avoidance of the net by fast swimming species. The net was only about 66% as efficient as the trap for catching rotifers. This difference is probably caused by the loss of small and softbodied forms through the mesh. Only about 65% of the total zooplankton biomass retained in the trap was collected by the net. Net sampling is not recommended for quantitative zooplankton studies.     

Optimizing noninvasive sampling of a zoonotic bat virus

Outbreaks of infectious viruses resulting from spillover events from bats have brought much attention to bat‐borne zoonoses, which has motivated increased ecological and epidemiological studies on bat populations. Field sampling methods often collect pooled samples of bat excreta from plastic sheets placed under‐roosts. However, positive bias is introduced because multiple individuals may contribute to pooled samples, making studies of viral dynamics difficult. Here, we explore the general issue of bias in spatial sample pooling using Hendra virus in Australian bats as a case study. We assessed the accuracy of different under‐roost sampling designs using generalized additive models and field data from individually captured bats and pooled urine samples. We then used theoretical simulation models of bat density and under‐roost sampling to understand the mechanistic drivers of bias. The most commonly used sampling design estimated viral prevalence 3.2 times higher than individual‐level data, with positive bias 5–7 times higher than other designs due to spatial autocorrelation among sampling sheets and clustering of bats in roosts. Simulation results indicate using a stratified random design to collect 30–40 pooled urine samples from 80 to 100 sheets, each with an area of 0.75–1 m², and would allow estimation of true prevalence with minimum sampling bias and false negatives. These results show that widely used under‐roost sampling techniques are highly sensitive to viral presence, but lack specificity, providing limited information regarding viral dynamics. Improved estimation of true prevalence can be attained with minor changes to existing designs such as reducing sheet size, increasing sheet number, and spreading sheets out within the roost area. Our findings provide insight into how spatial sample pooling is vulnerable to bias for a wide range of systems in disease ecology, where optimal sampling design is influenced by pathogen prevalence, host population density, and patterns of aggregation.     

Improving removal-based estimates of abundance by sampling a population of spatially distinct subpopulations

A statistical modeling framework is described for estimating the abundances of spatially distinct subpopulations of animals surveyed using removal sampling. To illustrate this framework, hierarchical models are developed using the Poisson and negative-binomial distributions to model variation in abundance among subpopulations and using the beta distribution to model variation in capture probabilities. These models are fitted to the removal counts observed in a survey of a federally endangered fish species. The resulting estimates of abundance have similar or better precision than those computed using the conventional approach of analyzing the removal counts of each subpopulation separately. Extension of the hierarchical models to include spatial covariates of abundance is straightforward and may be used to identify important features of an animal's habitat or to predict the abundance of animals at unsampled locations.     

吉林蛟河阔叶红松林样地种-面积关系

种-面积关系是群落生态学的核心问题之一,是生物多样性尺度转换的重要依据。利用吉林蛟河阔叶红松林30 hm~2的样地数据,采用随机取样与巢式取样方法,分别在10、20、30 hm~2尺度上建立对数模型(Logarithmic function)、幂函数模型(Power function)和逻辑斯蒂模型(Logistic function)拟合局域种-面积关系,并利用赤池信息准则(AIC)进行拟合结果优度检验。结果表明,取样方法对种-面积关系的构建有显著影响,随机取样优于巢式取样。种-面积关系的构建与尺度(取样上限)密切相关:在小尺度上(10 hm~2),对数模型与逻辑斯蒂模型拟合效果优于幂函数模型;在中尺度和大尺度上(20、30 hm~2),相对于对数模型和幂函数模型,逻辑斯蒂模型能更好地拟合阔叶红松林的种-面积关系。据AIC值可知,随机取样下的逻辑斯蒂模型拟合效果最好,是拟合30 hm~2阔叶红松林样地种-面积关系的最适模型。因此研究时需要根据区域森林群落的实际情况选择种-面积模型。     

Winter bait stations as a multispecies survey tool

Winter bait stations are becoming a commonly used technique for multispecies inventory and monitoring but a technical evaluation of their effectiveness is lacking. Bait stations have three components: carcass attractant, remote camera, and hair snare. Our 22,975 km² mountainous study area was stratified with a 5 × 5 km sampling grid centered on northern Idaho and including portions of Washington, Montana, and British Columbia. From 2010–14, we conducted 563 sampling sessions at 497 bait stations in 453 5 × 5 km cells. We evaluated the effectiveness of cameras and hair snare DNA collection at stations to detect species and individual animals, factors affecting DNA viability, the effectiveness of re‐visiting stations, and the influence of elevation, seasonality, and latency on species detections. Cameras were more effective at detecting multiple species than DNA hair snaring. Length of deployment time and elevation increased genetic species ID success but individual ID success rates were increased only by collecting hairs earlier in the season. Re‐visiting stations did not change camera or genetic species detection results but did increase the number of individual genotypes identified. Marten and fisher were detected quickly while bobcat and coyote showed longer latency to detection. Seasonality significantly affected coyote and bobcat detections but not marten, fisher, or weasel. Multispecies bait station study design should incorporate mixed elevation sites with stratified seasonality. Priority should be given to including cameras as components of bait stations over hair snares, unless there is a specific genetic goal to the study. A hair snare component should be added, however, if individual ID or genetic data are necessary. Winter stations should be deployed a minimum of 45–60 days to allow for detection of low density species and species with long latency to detection times. Hair samples should be collected prior to DNA‐degrading late season rain events. Re‐visiting stations does not change which species are detected at stations; therefore, studies with objectives to delineate species presence or distribution will be more effective if they focus on deploying more stations across a broader landscape in lieu of surveying the same site multiple times.     

Inverse Sampling in Case Control Studies Involving a Rare Exposure

In case-control studies where the outcome is not uncommon but the exposure is rare, inverse sampling may be used to reduce the total number of subjects required to find a fixed number of exposed cases and controls. The sampling distribution is negative binomial rather than binomial. Logistic regression for adjustment of covariates may be implemented on the computer program GLIM by the appropriate use of macros. An example is given.     

Evaluating sampling designs by computer simulation: a case study with the Missouri bladderpod

To effectively manage rare populations, accurate monitoring data are critical. Yet many monitoring programs are initiated without careful consideration of whether chosen sampling designs will provide accurate estimates of population parameters. Obtaining accurate estimates is especially difficult when natural variability is high, or limited budgets determine that only a small fraction of the population can be sampled. The Missouri bladderpod, Lesquerella filiformis Rollins, is a federally threatened winter annual that has an aggregated distribution pattern and exhibits dramatic interannual population fluctuations. Using the simulation program SAMPLE, we evaluated five candidate sampling designs appropriate for rare populations, based on 4 years of field data: (1) simple random sampling, (2) adaptive simple random sampling, (3) grid-based systematic sampling, (4) adaptive grid-based systematic sampling, and (5) GIS-based adaptive sampling. We compared the designs based on the precision of density estimates for fixed sample size, cost, and distance traveled. Sampling fraction and cost were the most important factors determining precision of density estimates, and relative design performance changed across the range of sampling fractions. Adaptive designs did not provide uniformly more precise estimates than conventional designs, in part because the spatial distribution of L. filiformis was relatively widespread within the study site. Adaptive designs tended to perform better as sampling fraction increased and when sampling costs, particularly distance traveled, were taken into account. The rate that units occupied by L. filiformis were encountered was higher for adaptive than for conventional designs. Overall, grid-based systematic designs were more efficient and practically implemented than the others. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Sampling avian adipose tissue: assessing a nondestructive biopsy technique

ABSTRACT.   Adipose tissue samples can provide valuable information about the physiology, foraging ecology, and toxicology of birds. However, despite these varied applications, to date, no procedure for taking adipose samples from live birds has been described in detail, nor assessed for potential adverse effects. We describe a nonlethal method for collecting adipose tissue from adults and chicks of Black-legged Kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ), Common Murres ( Uria aalge ), and Northern Fulmars ( Fulmarus glacialis ), and assess the short- and longer term effects of the procedure. Biopsies were carried out in the field using topical anesthetic and samples were taken from the synsacral region. Only two of 283 birds sampled (0.7%) had too little adipose tissue to be sampled successfully. Thirty-two kittiwakes were recaptured at varying intervals after the procedure (3–50 d) and the biopsy site inspected carefully. No signs of infection were observed and wounds healed completely within 6 d. Compared to birds captured for routine banding, biopsied kittiwakes showed neither greater weight loss nor reduced breeding success in the year of sampling. Similarly, recapture rates of biopsied birds in subsequent years were similar to those of individuals that had been blood sampled or banded. Our results suggest that collecting samples of adipose tissue by nondestructive biopsy has no more effect on birds than taking blood samples via syringe. Thus, we recommend nondestructive adipose tissue sampling via biopsy as an effective alternative to lethal methods in studies of wild birds.     

小兴安岭阔叶红松林木本植物种-面积关系

种-面积关系研究是了解植物群落结构的重要途径,是群落生态学的基本问题。不同的研究方法对种-面积关系影响很大。利用黑龙江省小兴安岭两个10.4 hm2样地和5个1.0 hm2样地的调查数据,采用移动窗口法确定各样地的最小取样面积,避免了巢式取样法及随机样方法的不足。并采用4种种-面积关系模型进行拟合,评价各关系模型的适合度。在此基础上,基于最小面积进行模拟随机取样,探讨取样大小对物种数估计精度的影响。研究结果表明:由于拟合曲线模型的适用性及曲线外推可靠性问题的存在,采用拟合曲线的方法所估计的最小面积与实际值偏差较大。实际调查得到的各样地最小面积40 m×40 m—45 m×45 m,说明小兴安岭地区阔叶红松林群落所需的最小面积基本一致,但各样地群落结构的差异却在对取样数量的要求上体现出来。其中丰林与大亮子河样地物种数分布相对均匀,所需最小样方数量较少;而方正与胜山样地物种数分布异质性较大,差异的机理还有待于进一步研究。     

Evaluation of a sweep net electrofishing method for the collection of small fish and shrimp in lotic freshwater environments

A major limitation of methods for collecting small fish and shrimp is that no single method is equally effective for all species or all life history stages. We compared the efficacy of the sweep net electrofishing (SNE) method with two other commonly used sampling methods for the collection of small fish and shrimp, the standard sweep net (SW) and the point abundance electrofishing (PAE) method developed by Copp & Penaz (1988). The effectiveness of the three methods was compared under three different current speeds in an Australian lowland river. The SNE method collected an order of magnitude more shrimp and a greater size range than the other two methods, irrespective of the current speed. The SNE method captured a similar number of fish to the SW method, but significantly more individuals than the PAE method. However, the two electrofishing methods caught a greater size range of both fish and shrimp than did the SW method. The effectiveness of the SNE method appears to be due to its ability to immediately capture shocked individuals, thereby lessening the likelihood of escape. Whilst the SNE method is not quantitative, its high level of effectiveness is likely to be particularly useful in systems with low densities of fish and shrimp.     

Integrating a comprehensive DNA barcode reference library with a global map of yews (Taxus L.) for forensic identification

Rapid and accurate identification of endangered species is a critical component of biosurveillance and conservation management, and potentially policing illegal trades. However, this is often not possible using traditional taxonomy, especially where only small or preprocessed parts of plants are available. Reliable identification can be achieved via a comprehensive DNA barcode reference library, accompanied by precise distribution data. However, these require extensive sampling at spatial and taxonomic scales, which has rarely been achieved for cosmopolitan taxa. Here, we construct a comprehensive DNA barcode reference library and generate distribution maps using species distribution modelling (SDM), for all 15 Taxus species worldwide. We find that trnL‐trnF is the ideal barcode for Taxus: It can distinguish all Taxus species and in combination with ITS identify hybrids. Among five analysis methods tested, NJ was the most effective. Among 4,151 individuals screened for trnL‐trnF, 73 haplotypes were detected, all species‐specific and some population private. Taxonomical, geographical and genetic dimensions of sampling strategy were all found to affect the comprehensiveness of the resulting DNA barcode library. Maps from SDM showed that most species had allopatric distributions, except T. mairei in the Sino‐Himalayan region. Using the barcode library and distribution map data, two unknown forensic samples were identified to species (and in one case, population) level and another was determined as a putative interspecific hybrid. This integrated species identification system for Taxus can be used for biosurveillance, conservation management and to monitor and prosecute illegal trade. Similar identification systems are recommended for other IUCN‐ and CITES‐listed taxa.     

Magic bullets and golden rules: data sampling in molecular phylogenetics

Data collection for molecular phylogenetic studies is based on samples of both genes and taxa. In an ideal world, with no limitations to resources, as many genes could be sampled as deemed necessary to address phylogenetic problems. Given limited resources in the real world, inadequate (in terms of choice of genes or number of genes) sequences or restricted taxon sampling can adversely affect the reliability or information gained in phylogenetics. Recent empirical and simulation-based studies of data sampling in molecular phylogenetics have reached differing conclusions on how to deal with these problems. Some advocated sampling more genes, others more taxa. There is certainly no ‘magic bullet’ that will fit all phylogenetic problems, and no specific ‘golden rules’ have been deduced, other than that single genes may not always contain sufficient phylogenetic information. However, several general conclusions and suggestions can be made. One suggestion is that the determination of a multiple, but moderate number (e.g., 6–10) of gene sequences might take precedence over sequencing a larger set of genes and thereby permit the sampling of more taxa for a phylogenetic study.     

Variance estimation for systematic designs in spatial surveys

Summary In spatial surveys for estimating the density of objects in a survey region, systematic designs will generally yield lower variance than random designs. However, estimating the systematic variance is well known to be a difficult problem. Existing methods tend to overestimate the variance, so although the variance is genuinely reduced, it is over‐reported, and the gain from the more efficient design is lost. The current approaches to estimating a systematic variance for spatial surveys are to approximate the systematic design by a random design, or approximate it by a stratified design. Previous work has shown that approximation by a random design can perform very poorly, while approximation by a stratified design is an improvement but can still be severely biased in some situations. We develop a new estimator based on modeling the encounter process over space. The new “striplet” estimator has negligible bias and excellent precision in a wide range of simulation scenarios, including strip‐sampling, distance‐sampling, and quadrat‐sampling surveys, and including populations that are highly trended or have strong aggregation of objects. We apply the new estimator to survey data for the spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, and find that the reported coefficient of variation for estimated density is 20% using approximation by a random design, 17% using approximation by a stratified design, and 11% using the new striplet estimator. This large reduction in reported variance is verified by simulation.     

An Australian trial of ThinPrep: a new cytopreparatory technique

To evaluate the sensitivity and suitability of ThinPrep, a new slide preparation technique, 2026 paired cervical cytology slides were examined. After conventional Papanicolaou smears were prepared, the sampling instruments were rinsed in a fluid fixative. ThinPrep slides were then prepared in the laboratory from the surplus cells in the fixative. Compared with the Pap smears, ThinPrep slides were easier and quicker to screen, were inconclusive less often, and had similar rates for detecting abnormalities and infection. There were more unsatisfactory ThinPrep slides and more ThinPrep slides lacked endocervical cells. Both of these shortcomings were found to be linked to the choice of sampling implements. This study, in which a variety of sampling instruments was used, fails to confirm some of the previous claims made for the new technique.