非线性自食种群动力系统的稳定性

本文讨论了一类主要由昆虫自食引起的非线性种群动态模型的稳定性．首先给出确定性模型,并着重讨论其一个特殊情形．通过在参数空间中辨识稳定域的边界,可以相对直观地分析种群动态．对于随机模型,是利用在确定性模型中加入对数尺度下的正态随机项形成的,该模型具有较好的统计性质,便于将现实的非线性时间序列数据引进系统中来．     

Randomization and Additivity in the Two-Period Crossover Clinicial Trial

In certain areas of medical research, the two-period crossover design is a frequent choice for comparing treatments A and B in a randomized clinical trial. Earlier work by Grizzle and by Brown was based upon a parametric theory linear model. Recently, the present authors employed D. R. Cox's additive randomization models and, for the case of zero residual effect, found a discrepancy between it and the parametric model with respect to the precision of period effects. In the present note, this divergence is accounted for by allowing for the possibility of non-additivity through the use of a completely general randomization model. It is concluded that the structure of the crossover design is such that use of the parametric theory linear model is required if a single, consistent model is desired.     

Evolution of airborne infectious diseases according to changes in characteristics of the host population

The authors predicted evolutionary changes in airborne infectious diseases according to changes in the characteristics of the host population. The predictions were based upon a mathematical model of infectious diseases and the validity of the predictions was verified against the history of man and pathogens. The feature of this model is that it involves a density of pathogens in the environment as an additional variable which can be regarded as more suitable to airborne infectious diseases. In spite of this modification, this study reached a similar conclusion to the threshold density theory: that is, susceptible host density in the absence of the pathogen must be larger than that in the presence of the pathogen, for the pathogen to be persistent. Moreover the authors concluded that one type of pathogen cannot be replaced by another type of pathogen as long as the susceptible host density of the former type is the mininum one. The predictions were considered to be valid for a wide range of infectous diseases. Making use of these principles, the authors predicted that the variety of infectious diseases should increase as host density increases and that pathogens should evolve to be less virulent as the host life-span increases. The finalidea discussed is whether or nor the history of man and pathogen can be verified by the predictions.     

Influence of a postural change of the swimmer's head in hydrodynamic performances using 3D CFD

This study deals with recent researches undertaken by the authors in the field of hydrodynamics of human swimming. The aim of this numerical study was to investigate the flow around the entire swimmer's body. The results presented in this article focus on the combination of a 3D computational fluid dynamics code and the use of the k–ω turbulence model, in the range of Reynolds numbers representative of a swimming level varying from national to international competition. Emphasis is placed on the influence of a postural change of the swimmer's head in hydrodynamic performances, which is directly related to the reduction of overall drag. These results confirm and complete those, less accurate, of a preliminary 2D study recently published by the authors and allow the authors to optimise the swimmer's head position in underwater swimming.     

Univariate Dose-Response Models in Case-Control Studies

For modelling dose-response relationships in case-control studies the multiplicative logistic regression model, assuming the relative risk to be an exponential function of the dose, is widely known. If the relative risk is assumed to be a linear function of the dose, several authors (see e.g. BERRY (1980)) have proposed an additive (linear) model. This model has a better fit with the data if such a linear relation holds. Confidence limits for the relative risk derived from the information matrix, however, appear to be rather inaccurate. Therefore, use of the ‘standard’ logistic model in two different ways was studied: extension with a quadratic term or a logarithmic transformation of the dose. By applying the methods both to an empirical data set and in a simulation experiment, it is shown that appropriate transformation (often logarithmic) of the dosage and then applying the ‘standard’ logistic model is an useful approach if a linear dose-response relationship holds.     

外源性凝血瀑布动力系统的稳定性

本文首先建立了相应于Lamula与Griffin的凝血动力系统瀑布模式的非线性数学模型．并使用分叉方法较深入地分析了该系统的定态平衡解与动态解的稳定性与全局吸引子．通过动力学分析,我们从理论上证明了存在外源性路径启动的触发阈值及瀑布机制达到终态的细节：趋于一个全局吸引子．     

一个改进的下丘脑-垂体-甲状腺轴的数学模型

提出一个改进的下丘脑-垂体-甲状腺轴的数学模型.该模型既考虑了此分泌调节系统各激素之间的激活和反馈作用,也考虑了甲状腺激素与蛋白质结合的动力学过程.由该模型推导的结果与实验结果符合得很好.     

两种作物套种生态系统动态模型的建立及分析

本文主要建立小麦、大豆两种作物套种共生生态系统的Volterra方程模型．分析该模型得知,此生态系统是相互竞争的,其自身增长率因环境因素而受抑制,且是全局稳定的．其次计算出该生态系统在平衡状态处受到标准扰动之后,向平衡状态恢复的时间,有利套种作物生长的调控。     

生态系统管理的基本问题

生态系统管理的基本问题赵士洞汪业勖（中国科学院国家计划委员会自然资源综合考察委员会,北京１００１０１）ＳｕｍｍａｒｙｏｎＥｃｏｓｙｓｔｅｍＭａｎａｇｅｍｅｎｔ．ＺｈａｏＳｉｄｏｎｇ,ＷａｎｇＹｅｘｕ（ＣｏｍｍｉｓｉｏｎｆｏｒＩｎｔｅｇｒａｔｅｄＳｕｒ...     

格氏栲种群调节模型的研究

在前人对植物种群自然稀疏过程的研究基础上,结合自适应通用增长模型,推导出一种能描述密度变化全过程的理论模型,ｌｎＮ＝ａｌｎ＾２Ｓ＋ｂｌｎＳ＋ｃ,其中Ｎ和Ｓ分别为种群密度和单株基面积,ａ、ｂ、ｃ为参数。     

Neighborhood Dependence in Bayesian Spatial Models

The conditional autoregressive model and the intrinsic autoregressive model are widely used as prior distribution for random spatial effects in Bayesian models. Several authors have pointed out impractical or counterintuitive consequences on the prior covariance matrix or the posterior covariance matrix of the spatial random effects. This article clarifies many of these puzzling results. We show that the neighborhood graph structure, synthesized in eigenvalues and eigenvectors structure of a matrix associated with the adjacency matrix, determines most of the apparently anomalous behavior. We illustrate our conclusions with regular and irregular lattices including lines, grids, and lattices based on real maps.     

捕获网法及其参数估计

介绍了一种采用标记-重捕获技术估计动物种群密度的捕获网抽样方法。在回顾该方法国内外研究进展的基础上,分析了由于该法参数估算过程复杂和缺乏相关的处理计算软件对其应用的限制,提出了捕获网抽样方法参数估计的表格化处理技术。并以美国New Mexico附近白脚鼠的种群密度调查数据分析为例,介绍了嵌入DPS电子工作表的捕获网抽样参数估计表格化处理过程;最后就捕获网抽样参数估计的研究重点提出一些看法和展望。     

Mitonuclear genomics challenges the theory of clonality in Trypanosoma congolense: Reply to Tibayrenc and Ayala

We recently published the first genomic diversity study of Trypanosoma congolense, a major aetiological agent of Animal African Trypanosomiasis. We demonstrated striking levels of SNP and indel diversity in the Eastern province of Zambia as a consequence of hybridization between divergent trypanosome lineages. We concluded that these and earlier findings in T. congolense challenge the predominant clonal evolution (PCE) model. In a recent comment, Tibayrenc and Ayala claim that there are many features in T. congolense supporting their theory of clonality. While we can follow the reasoning of the authors, we also identify major limitations in their theory and interpretations that resulted in incorrect conclusions. First, we argue that each T. congolense subgroup should be analysed independently as they may represent different (sub)species rather than “near‐clades”. Second, the authors neglect major findings of two robust population genetic studies on Savannah T. congolense that provide clear evidence of frequent recombination. Third, we reveal additional events of introgressive hybridization in T. congolense by analysing the maxicircle coding region using next‐generation sequencing analyses. At last, we pinpoint two important misinterpretations by the authors and show that there are no spatially and temporally widespread clones in T. congolense. We stand by our earlier conclusions that the clonal framework is unlikely to accurately model the population structure of T. congolense. Other theoretical frameworks such as Maynard Smith's epidemic model may better represent the complex ancestry seen in T. congolense, where clones delimited in space and time arise against a background of recombination.     

Mathematical model for the ecosystem response of Lake Ladoga to phosphorus loading

The ecosystem response model described in this paper combines an ecosystem model and a three-dimensional circulation model of Lake Ladoga developed earlier by the authors. The ecosystem model describes the process of Lake Ladoga eutrophication, and its biological submodel describes changes in the phyto- and zooplankton. In the earlier model version, lake circulation was determined using a two-dimensional hydrodynamical model which was not completely adequate. The present model allows calculation of the distributions of phyto- and zooplankton and mineral phosphorus and nitrogen. One of its main advantages is that reliable computations of the ecosystem dynamics over an extended period of time are possible. The response of the ecosystem to different levels of phosphorus pollution loading and to weather conditions is studied.     

m~*-v幂模型在检验昆虫种群空间分布中的应用

近年来,不少学者提出了各种检验昆虫种群空间分布的模型．本文提出一种新的模型：m~*-v幂模型──m~*＝avb,m~*与v呈幂关系．实例研究验证表明该模型具有适用范围更广和可行性大的优点．同时,根据m~*-v幂模型,推导出与其相配套的序贯抽样方程、最大抽样数量公式和最适抽样单元大小等公式．     

Randomization Modelling of the Crossover Experiment for Clinical Trials

The two-period cross-over experiment for clinical trials has been examined by several writers following a Gaussian linear model approach. Some authors have expressed interest in the “derivation of the finite permutation model” and have pointed out that the randomization approach to modeling the two-period cross-over design “would highlight the importance of randomizing the subjects to the two groups as a basis for inference”. However, in the literature, there is no development of the randomization approach to this important design. In this paper, after a statement of the experimental design and formulation of the observation random variables of the finite population, two additive randomization models—one with residual effects, the other without—which are the analogues of Grizzle's Gaussian models, are derived. Statistical inference is developed for these randomization models and the results are compared with those of the corresponding Gaussian models. Also, exact inference based upon Fischer's approach is presented.     

Elastic energy storage in an unmineralized collagen type I molecular model with explicit solvation and water infiltration

Collagen type I is a structural protein that provides tensile strength to tendons and ligaments. Type I collagen molecules form collagen fibers, which are viscoelastic and can therefore store energy elastically via molecular elongation and dissipate viscous energy through molecular rearrangement and fibrillar slippage. The ability to store elastic energy is important for the resiliency of tendons and ligaments, which must be able to deform and revert to their initial lengths with changes in load.In an earlier paper by one of the present authors, molecular modeling was used to investigate the role of mineralization upon elastic energy storage in collagen type I. Their collagen model showed a similar trend to their experimental data but with an over-estimation of elastic energy storage. Their simulations were conducted in vacuum and employed a distance-dependent dielectric function. In this study, we performed a re-evaluation of Freeman and Silver's model data incorporating the effects of explicit solvation and water infiltration, in order to determine whether the model data could be improved with a more accurate representation of the solvent and osmotic effects. We observed an average decrease in the model's elastic energy storage of 45.1%±6.9% in closer proximity to Freeman and Silver's experimental data. This suggests that although the distance-dependent dielectric implicit solvation approach was favored for its increased speed and decreased computational requirements, an explicit representation of water may be necessary to more accurately model solvent interactions in this particular system. In this paper, we discuss the collagen model described by Freeman and Silver, the present model building approach, the application of the present model to that of Freeman and Silver, and additional assumptions and limitations.     

Dynamic distribution modelling of the swamp tigertail dragonfly Synthemis eustalacta (Odonata: Anisoptera: Synthemistidae) over a 20-year bushfire regime

1. Intensity and severity of bushfires in Australia have increased over the past few decades due to climate change, threatening habitat loss for numerous species. Although the impact of bushfires on vertebrates is well-documented, the corresponding effects on insect taxa are rarely examined, although they are responsible for key ecosystem functions and services. Understanding the effects of bushfire seasons on insect distributions could elucidate long-term impacts and patterns of ecosystem recovery.
2. Here, the authors investigated the effects of recent bushfires, land-cover change, and climatic variables on the distribution of a common and endemic dragonfly, the swamp tigertail (Synthemis eustalacta) (Burmeister, 1839), which inhabits forests that have recently undergone severe burning. The authors used a temporally dynamic species distribution modelling approach that incorporated 20 years of community-science data on dragonfly occurrence and predictors based on fire, land cover, and climate to make yearly predictions of suitability. The authors also compared this to an approach that combines multiple temporally static models that use annual data.
3. The authors found that for both approaches, fire-specific variables had negligible importance for the models, while the percentage of tree and non-vegetative cover were most important. The authors also found that the dynamic model outperformed the static ones, based on cross-validation omission rate. Model predictions indicated temporal variation in area and spatial arrangement of suitable habitat, but no patterns of habitat expansion, contraction, or shifting.
4. These results highlight not only the efficacy of dynamic modelling to capture spatiotemporal variables such as vegetation cover for an endemic insect species, but also provide a novel approach to mapping species distributions with sparse locality records.