Bioclimatic modelling using Gaussian mixture distributions and multiscale segmentation

Aim To introduce Gaussian mixture distributions and sequential maximum a posteriori image segmentation (GM‐SMAP) as a model that predicts species ranges from mapped climatic variables, and to compare its predictive capacity with two commonly used bioclimatic models: regression tree analysis (RTA) and smoothed response surfaces (SRS). Location North‐west North America. Methods We compared models for their ability to predict the distributional range of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla). We calculated and projected nine climatic and water‐balance variables to a 2‐km grid up to 140 km from the T. heterophylla range. Models were trained using the five variables selected by RTA, as well as subsets of three variables. Goodness of fit was assessed using models trained and tested on the entire study area. Predictive capacity was assessed using 100 cross‐validation tests, each trained on a randomly sampled 1% of the study area and tested on the complement of the study area. Results Models using all five variables were significantly better than three‐variable models. Model fit was greatest for SRS. GM‐SMAP misclassified slightly more area and RTA misclassified almost twice the area compared to SRS. However, cross‐ validation showed that the predictive capacity was clearly greatest for GM‐SMAP and lowest for SRS, indicating that GM‐SMAP makes more accurate predictions from sparse data. Main conclusions GM distributions prevent overfitting using an information‐theoretic approach, and the SMAP algorithm minimizes the spatial extent of the largest misclassified area using a multiscale method. These properties, useful for image classification, also aid their strong predictive capacity as a bioclimatic model. SRS overfit the data, lowering its predictive capacity, and RTA failed to capture details of interactions among variables, yielding a poor fit. These results demonstrate the strong potential of GM‐SMAP as a bioclimatic model.     

THE RELATIONSHIP AND ORIGIN OF TSUGA HETEROPHYLLA AND TSUGA MERTENSIANA BASED ON PHYTOCHEMICAL AND MORPHOLOGICAL INTERPRETATIONS

Morphological intermediacy between Tsuga heterophylla and Tsuga mertensiana has stimulated controversy concerning the relationship between these two hemlock species and has led to wide acceptance of hybridization as a causative factor of intermediate forms in areas of distributional overlap. In this study, comparative’ chemical analyses were used to test the theory of hybrid derivation of intermediates. Chromatographic analyses were further applied to the phylogenetic ranking of several North American and Asian species of Tsuga and to the examination of the hypothesis that Tsuga mertensiana is a derivative of intergeneric hybridization involving Tsuga heterophylla and Picea sitchensis. Chromatographic data derived from extensive sampling in the western Cascades of Washington led me to conclude that hybridization of Tsuga heterophylla and T. mertensiana is a possible but rare phenomenon and is not necessarily indicated by morphological intermediacy. Phylogenetically both of these species are typical representatives of Tsuga and are distinct from species of Picea. There is, however, some support for the derivation of Tsuga mertensiana by intergeneric hybridization.     

Modelling the distribution of a threatened habitat: the California sage scrub

Aim Using predictive species distribution and ecological niche modelling our objectives are: (1) to identify important climatic drivers of distribution at regional scales of a locally complex and dynamic system – California sage scrub; (2) to map suitable sage scrub habitat in California; and (3) to distinguish between bioclimatic niches of floristic groups within sage scrub to assess the conservation significance of analysing such species groups. Location Coastal mediterranean‐type shrublands of southern and central California. Methods Using point localities from georeferenced herbarium records, we modelled the potential distribution and bioclimatic envelopes of 14 characteristic sage scrub species and three floristic groups (south‐coastal, coastal–interior disjunct and broadly distributed species) based upon current climate conditions. Maxent was used to map climatically suitable habitat, while principal components analysis followed by canonical discriminant analysis were used to distinguish between floristic groups and visualize species and group distributions in multivariate ecological space. Results Geographical distribution patterns of individual species were mirrored in the habitat suitability maps of floristic groups, notably the disjunct distribution of the coastal–interior species. Overlap in the distributions of floristic groups was evident in both geographical and multivariate niche space; however, discriminant analysis confirmed the separability of floristic groups based on bioclimatic variables. Higher performance of floristic group models compared with sage scrub as a whole suggests that groups have differing climate requirements for habitat suitability at regional scales and that breaking sage scrub into floristic groups improves the discrimination between climatically suitable and unsuitable habitat. Main conclusions The finding that presence‐only data and climatic variables can produce useful information on habitat suitability of California sage scrub species and floristic groups at a regional scale has important implications for ongoing efforts of habitat restoration for sage scrub. In addition, modelling at a group level provides important information about the differences in climatic niches within California sage scrub. Finally, the high performance of our floristic group models highlights the potential a community‐level modelling approach holds for investigating plant distribution patterns.     

Precipitation of the warmest quarter and temperature of the warmest month are key to understanding the effect of climate change on plant species diversity in Southern African savannah

In this study, we test for the key bioclimatic variables that significantly explain the current distribution of plant species richness in a southern African ecosystem as a preamble to predicting plant species richness under a changed climate. We used 54,000 records of georeferenced plant species data to calculate species richness and spatially interpolated climate data to derive nineteen bioclimatic variables. Next, we determined the key bioclimatic variables explaining variation in species richness across Zimbabwe using regression analysis. Our results show that two bioclimatic variables, that is, precipitation of the warmest quarter (R² = 0.92, P < 0.001) and temperature of the warmest month (R² = 0.67, P < 0.001) significantly explain variation in plant species richness. In addition, results of bioclimatic modelling using future climate change projections show a reduction in the current bio‐climatically suitable area that supports high plant species richness. However, in high‐altitude areas, plant richness is less sensitive to climate change while low‐altitude areas show high sensitivity. Our results have important implications to biodiversity conservation in areas sensitive to climate change; for example, high‐altitude areas are likely to continue being biodiversity hotspots, as such future conservation efforts should be concentrated in these areas.     

Climatic niche of the Saker Falcon Falco cherrug: predicted new areas to direct population surveys in Central Asia

Accurate species distribution data across remote and extensive geographical areas are difficult to obtain. Here, we use bioclimatic envelope models to determine climatic constraints on the distribution of the migratory Saker Falcon Falco cherrug to identify areas in data-deficient regions that may contain unidentified populations. Sakers live at low densities across large ranges in remote regions, making distribution status difficult to assess. Using presence-background data and eight bioclimatic variables within a species distribution modelling framework, we applied MaxEnt to construct models for both breeding and wintering ranges. Occurrence data were spatially filtered and climatic variables tested for multicollinearity before selecting best fit models using the Akaike information criterion by tuning MaxEnt parameters. Model predictive performance tested using the continuous Boyce index (B) was high for both breeding (B_TEST = 0.921) and wintering models (B_TEST = 0.735), with low omission rates and minimal overfitting. The Saker climatic niche was defined by precipitation in the warmest quarter in the breeding range model, and mean temperature in the wettest quarter in the wintering range model. Our models accurately predicted areas of highest climate suitability and defined the climatic constraints on a wide-ranging rare species, suggesting that climate is a key determinant of Saker distribution across macro-scales. We recommend targeted population surveys for the Saker based on model predictions to areas of highest climatic suitability in key regions with distribution knowledge gaps, in particular the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in western China. Further applications of our models could identify protected areas and reintroduction sites, inform development conflicts, and assess the impact of climate change on distributions.     

Variability of lichen diversity in a climatically heterogeneous area (Liguria,NW Italy)

Abstract:The influence of environmental variables on epiphytic lichens in Liguria (NW Italy) was examined using two complementary approaches. Firstly, the variability of lichen vegetation in relation to environmental variables was investigated. Secondly, the variability of Lichen Biodiversity (LB) counts, used in biomonitoring studies, was analysed in relation to bioclimatic areas. Geomorphology strongly affects lichen vegetation. The coastal mountain ridge and the Tyrrhenian-Po valley watershed limit the distribution range of three different communities: a Parmelion community with a high frequency of coastal suboceanic species, a Parmelion community rich in oak wood species and the Parmelietum acetabuli association, situated beyond the Po Valley watershed. Substantial differences in the distribution of lichen communities related to a climatic gradient (from humid Mediterranean to dry sub-Mediterranean regions) are not matched by corresponding statistically significant differences in LB counts. More accurate studies are necessary to define homogeneous bioclimatic areas, in which LB values can be compared for biomonitoring purposes.     

Growth releases of three shade‐tolerant species following canopy gap formation in old‐growth forests

Questions: Do the number, duration and magnitude of growth releases following formation of natural, fine‐scale canopy gaps differ among shade‐tolerant Thuja plicata, Tsuga heterophylla and Abies amabilis? What is the relative importance of tree‐level and gap‐level variables in predicting the magnitude and duration of releases? What does this tell us about mechanisms of tree species coexistence in such old‐growth forests? Location: Coastal British Columbia, Canada. Methods: We estimated the timing of formation of 20 gaps using dendroecological techniques and extracted increment cores from all three species growing around or within gaps. Using a species‐ and ecosystem‐specific release‐detection method, we determined the number of trees experiencing a release following gap formation. We quantified the duration and magnitude of individual releases and estimated the influence of tree‐level and gap‐level variables on these release attributes. Results: Eighty‐seven per cent (304 of 348) of all trees experienced a release following gap formation. T. heterophylla and A. amabilis experienced higher magnitude and longer duration releases than T. plicata. The effect of diameter on the duration of releases varied among species, with T. heterophylla and A. amabilis experiencing decreasing, and T. plicata experiencing increasing, duration of releases with increasing diameter. The effect of growth rate prior to a release on the magnitude of releases varied among trees of different diameters, with the slowest growing and smallest individuals of all species experiencing the most intensive releases. Conclusions: Our results provide detailed information on the number, duration and magnitude of growth releases of the above three species following gap formation. Differences in response to canopy gaps suggest differences in how these species ascend to the canopy strata. T. plicata may be less dependent on gaps to reach the canopy. Differing strategies for ascending to the canopy strata may be important in facilitating coexistence of these three species in old‐growth forests of coastal British Columbia.     

Maritime climate influence on chaparral composition and diversity in the coast range of central California

We investigated the hypothesis that maritime climatic factors associated with summer fog and low cloud stratus (summer marine layer) help explain the compositional diversity of chaparral in the coast range of central California. We randomly sampled chaparral species composition in 0.1‐hectare plots along a coast‐to‐interior gradient. For each plot, climatic variables were estimated and soil samples were analyzed. We used Cluster Analysis and Principle Components Analysis to objectively categorize plots into climate zone groups. Climate variables, vegetation composition and various diversity measures were compared across climate zone groups using ANOVA and nonmetric multidimensional scaling. Differences in climatic variables that relate to summer moisture availability and winter freeze events explained the majority of variance in measured conditions and coincided with three chaparral assemblages: maritime (lowland coast where the summer marine layer was strongest), transition (upland coast with mild summer marine layer influence and greater winter precipitation), and interior sites that generally lacked late summer water availability from either source. Species turnover (β‐diversity) was higher among maritime and transition sites than interior sites. Coastal chaparral differs from interior chaparral in having a higher obligate seeder to facultative seeder (resprouter) ratio and by being dominated by various Arctostaphylos species as opposed to the interior dominant, Adenostoma fasciculatum. The maritime climate influence along the California central coast is associated with patterns of woody plant composition and β‐diversity among sites. Summer fog in coastal lowlands and higher winter precipitation in coastal uplands combine to lower late dry season water deficit in coastal chaparral and contribute to longer fire return intervals that are associated with obligate seeders and more local endemism. Soil nutrients are comparatively less important in explaining plant community composition, but heterogeneous azonal soils contribute to local endemism and promote isolated chaparral patches within the dominant forest vegetation along the coast.     

全国栽培太子参生态适宜性区划分析

采用Arc GIS地理信息系统软件的空间分析方法和SPSS统计软件的统计分析方法,分析了全国太子参潜在适宜种植地理分布、适宜生境及化学成分与环境因子的相关性。结果显示:采用聚类分析从46个样地中筛选出34个多糖含量较高的样地。所建模型经ROC曲线验证,预测效果非常好(AUC0.9)。最干月降水量(贡献率68.4%)、土壤类型(9.7%)、最暖季平均温(6.0%)、等温性(4.0%)是影响太子参种植分布最重要的环境因子,其最适宜生境范围为:最干月降水量20—60mm;最暖季平均温21.5—30.5℃;等温性18%—35%;土壤类型为不饱和薄层土、饱和粘磬土中的黄棕壤、黄壤、黄红壤。相关性分析显示,多糖和生境适宜度均与最湿季降水量、最暖季降水量、最暖季平均温、最干月降水量及年平均气温无显著相关性。太子参最适宜区主要分布在长江中下游区域,主要有贵州中部,重庆与湖南、湖北接壤处,河南南部,安徽西部,江苏中部,福建东北部以及浙江北部和东南部区域。因此,明确全国太子参潜在的适宜种植区可为太子参种植基地的选取和合理布局提供参考。     

Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale

Predicting the probability of successful establishment of plant species by matching climatic variables has considerable potential for incorporation in early warning systems for the management of biological invasions. We select South Africa as a model source area of invasions worldwide because it is an important exporter of plant species to other parts of the world because of the huge international demand for indigenous flora from this biodiversity hotspot. We first mapped the five ecoregions that occur both in South Africa and other parts of the world, but the very coarse definition of the ecoregions led to unreliable results in terms of predicting invasible areas. We then determined the bioclimatic features of South Africa's major terrestrial biomes and projected the potential distribution of analogous areas throughout the world. This approach is much more powerful, but depends strongly on how particular biomes are defined in donor countries. Finally, we developed bioclimatic niche models for 96 plant taxa (species and subspecies) endemic to South Africa and invasive elsewhere, and projected these globally after successfully evaluating model projections specifically for three well‐known invasive species (Carpobrotus edulis, Senecio glastifolius, Vellereophyton dealbatum) in different target areas. Cumulative probabilities of climatic suitability show that high‐risk regions are spatially limited globally but that these closely match hotspots of plant biodiversity. These probabilities are significantly correlated with the number of recorded invasive species from South Africa in natural areas, emphasizing the pivotal role of climate in defining invasion potential. Accounting for potential transfer vectors (trade and tourism) significantly adds to the explanatory power of climate suitability as an index of invasibility. The close match that we found between the climatic component of the ecological habitat suitability and the current pattern of occurrence of South Africa alien species in other parts of the world is encouraging. If species' distribution data in the donor country are available, climatic niche modelling offers a powerful tool for efficient and unbiased first‐step screening. Given that eradication of an established invasive species is extremely difficult and expensive, areas identified as potential new sites should be monitored and quarantine measures should be adopted.     

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

Aim To identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model. Location South America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina. Methods We used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data. Results Simple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3–4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions. Main conclusions Simple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.     

Modeling landscape patterns of understory tree regeneration in the Pacific Northwest,USA

Abstract. Vegetation maps serve as the basis for spatial analysis of forest ecosystems and provide initial information for simulations of forest landscape change. Because of the limitations of current remote sensing technology, it is not possible to directly measure forest understory attributes across large spatial extents. Instead we used a predictive vegetation mapping approach to model Tsuga heterophylla and Picea sitchensis seedling patterns in a 3900‐ha landscape in the Oregon Coast Range, USA, as a function of Landsat TM imagery, aerial photographs, digital elevation models, and stream maps. Because the models explained only moderate amounts of variability (R² values of 0.24–0.56), we interpreted the predicted patterns as qualitative spatial trends rather than precise maps. P. sitchensis seedling patterns were tightly linked to the riparian network, with highest densities in coastal riparian areas. T. heterophylla seedlings exhibited complex patterns related to topography and overstory forest cover, and were also spatially clustered around patches of old‐growth forest. We hypothesize that the old growth served as refugia for this fire‐sensitive species following wildfires in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Low levels of T. heterophylla regeneration in hardwood‐dominated forests suggest that these patches may succeed to shrublands rather than to conifer forest. Predictive models of seedling patterns could be developed for other landscapes where georeferenced inventory plots, remote sensing data, digital elevation models, and climate maps are available.     

Forest tree growth response to hydroclimate variability in the southern Appalachians

Climate change will affect tree species growth and distribution; however, under the same climatic conditions species may differ in their response according to site conditions. We evaluated the climate‐driven patterns of growth for six dominant deciduous tree species in the southern Appalachians. We categorized species into two functional groups based on their stomatal regulation and xylem architecture: isohydric, diffuse porous and anisohydric, ring porous. We hypothesized that within the same climatic regime: (i) species‐specific differences in growth will be conditional on topographically mediated soil moisture availability; (ii) in extreme drought years, functional groups will have markedly different growth responses; and (iii) multiple hydroclimate variables will have direct and indirect effects on growth for each functional group. We used standardized tree‐ring chronologies to examine growth of diffuse‐porous (Acer, Liriodendron, and Betula) and ring‐porous (Quercus) species vs. on‐site climatic data from 1935 to 2003. Quercus species growing on upslope sites had higher basal area increment (BAI) than Quercus species growing on mesic, cove sites; whereas, Acer and Liriodendron had lower BAI on upslope compared to cove sites. Diffuse‐porous species were more sensitive to climate than ring porous, especially during extreme drought years. Across functional groups, radial growth was more sensitive to precipitation distribution, such as small storms and dry spell length (DSL), rather than the total amount of precipitation. Based on structural equation modeling, diffuse‐porous species on upslope sites were the most sensitive to multiple hydroclimate variables (r² = 0.46), while ring‐porous species on upslope sites were the least sensitive (r² = 0.32). Spring precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and summer storms had direct effects on summer AET/P, and summer AET/P, growing season small storms and DSL partially explained growth. Decreasing numbers of small storms and extending the days between rainfall events will result in significant growth reduction, even in regions with relatively high total annual rainfall.     

Bioclimatic model of tree radial growth: application to the French Mediterranean Aleppo pine forests

The potential effects of global changes on forests are of increasing concern. Dendrochronology, which deals with long-term records of tree growth under natural environmental conditions, can be used to evaluate the impact of climatic change on forest productivity. However, assessment of climatic change impacts must be supported by accurate and reliable models of the relationships between climate and tree growth. In this study, a bioclimatic model is used to explore the relationships between tree radial growth and bioclimatic variables closely related to the biological functioning of a tree. This model is at an intermediate level of complexity between purely empirical and process-based models. The method is illustrated with data for 21 Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) stands grown under a Mediterranean climate in south-east France. The results show that Aleppo pine growth is mainly controlled by soil water availability during the growing season. The bioclimatic variable which best expresses the observed inter-annual tree growth variations is the actual evapotranspiration (AET). Four parameters were adjusted to simulate dendrochronological data: the soil water capacity, the wilting point, the minimum temperature for photosynthesis, and the end of the growing season. The bioclimatic model gives better results than the standard response function and provides better insight into the functional processes involved in tree growth. The convincing results obtained by the bioclimatic model as well as the limited numbers of parameters it requires demonstrate the feasibility of using it to explore future climatic change impacts on Aleppo pine forests.     

Where and why? Bees,snail shells and climate: Distribution of Rhodanthidium (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) in the Iberian Peninsula

Species distribution patterns are widely studied through species distribution models (SDMs), focusing mostly on climatic variables. Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) allow inferring if other factors (biotic interactions, shared phylogenetic history or other unmeasured variables) can also have an influence on species distribution. We identified current distributional areas and optimal suitability areas of three species of the solitary snail‐shell bee Rhodanthidium (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), and their host gastropod species in the Iberian Peninsula. We undertook SDMs using Maxent software, based on presence points and climatic variables. We also undertook JSDMs for the bees and the snails to infer if co‐occurrence could be a result of biotic interactions. We found that the three bee species: (1) use at least five different species of Mediterranean snails; (2) use empty shells not only for nesting but also for sheltering when there is adverse weather and during the night; (3) have their most suitable areas in the eastern and southern Iberian Peninsula, mostly on limestone areas; and (4) have their optimal range under Mediterranean climatic values for the studied variables. There is positive co‐occurrence of Rhodanthidium with the gastropod species, especially with the snail Sphincterochila candidissima. The contribution of the environmental component to the co‐occurrence is less than that of the residual component in those cases, suggesting that: (i) the use of biotic resources (between Rhodanthidium and the gastropod species); (ii) shared phylogenetic history (between R. septemdentatum and R. sticticum); or (iii) unmeasured variables are largely responsible for co‐occurrence.     

Climate niche shift in invasive species: the case of the brown anole

Anolis sagrei, a Cuba and Bahama native lizard, is a successful invader in Florida and adjacent areas. Herein, we focus on conservatism in its climate niche axes and possible congruencies with its natural history properties. The not mutually exclusive hypotheses of the present study explaining its northern range limit are: (1) climatic conditions within species' native and invasive ranges are identical; (2) the species is pre‐adapted to novel conditions as a result of historical climate variations; and (3) only some niche axes limit the species' invasive distribution and the observed pattern is explained by an interplay between the potential niche within its native range and life‐history. Species distribution models for native and invasive distributions were built on ten bioclimatic variables. Using Schoener's niche overlap index, the degree of niche conservatism among variables was identified. Significances of hypothesis (1) were tested using null‐model approaches. Possible climatic pre‐adaptations were evaluated by comparing its actual tolerance within its invasive range with that of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) within its native range (hypothesis 2). Results of (1) and (2) are discussed in relation to natural history, approaching hypothesis 3. We detect varying overlaps in niche axes, indicating that natural history properties are associated with conservative niche axes. Climatic comparisons with LGM of native and current conditions of invasive range suggest that pre‐adaptations are unlikely. Possible shifts in the fundamental niche of the species may have been facilitated by enhanced genetic diversity in northern invasive populations. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 104 , 943–954.     

Climate-driven range dynamics of the freshwater limpet, Ancylus fluviatilis (Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Aim Our aim was to understand the processes that have shaped the present‐day distribution of the freshwater limpet Ancylus fluviatilis sensu stricto in order to predict the consequences of global climate change for the geographical range of this species. Location North‐western Europe. Methods We sampled populations of A. fluviatilis sensu stricto over the entire range of the species (north‐western Europe) and sequenced 16S ribosomal RNA (16S) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) mitochondrial fragments to perform phylogenetic and phylogeographical analyses. Climatic niche modelling allowed us to infer the climatic preferences of the species. A principal components analysis identified the most important climatic factors explaining the actual range of A. fluviatilis. We also identified which climatic factor was the most limiting at range margins, and predicted the species’ geographical range under a climate change scenario [Community Climate Model 3 (CCM3)]. Results By means of the phylogeographical analysis, we infer that A. fluviatilis sensu stricto occupied northern refuges during the Last Glacial Maximum. We show that the climatic preferences of Baltic populations are significantly different from those of Central European populations. The projection of the occupied area under the CCM3 climate model predicts a moderate poleward shift of the northern range limits, but a dramatic loss of areas currently occupied, for instance in northern Germany and in southern Great Britain. Main conclusions The post‐glacial range dynamics of A. fluviatilis are not governed by niche conservatism. Therefore, we must be cautious about bioclimatic model predictions: the expected impact of climate change could be tempered by the adaptive potential this species has already shown in its evolutionary history. Thus, modelling approaches should rather be seen as conservative forecasts of altered species ranges as long as the adaptive potential of the organisms in question cannot be predicted.     

Structure and dynamics of an ancient montane forest in coastal British Columbia

Old-growth forests are common in the snowy, montane environments of coastal western North America. To examine dynamics of a stand containing four canopy tree species (Abies amabilis, Chamaecyparis nootkatensis, Tsuga mertensiana and T. heterophylla), we used four stem-mapped, 50 m ×50 m plots. From measurements of annual rings, we obtained ages from basal discs of 1,336 live trees, developed master chronologies for each species, reconstructed early growth rates, and delineated periods of release. The stand was ancient; individuals of all four species exceeded 900 years in age, and the oldest tree exceeded 1,400 years. The four plots differed in the timing of events, and we found no evidence of major, stand-level disturbance. Instead the stand was structured by small-scale patch dynamics, resulting from events that affected one to several trees and initiated episodes of release and relatively rapid early growth. The species differed in age structure and dynamics. A. amabilis and T. heterophylla had a classical reverse-J age structure indicative of stable populations, whereas C. nootkatensis and T. mertensiana appeared to rely on local episodes of increased recruitment, which were often separated by centuries, and were probably related to multiple-tree gaps that occurred infrequently. However, such gaps could be considered normal in the long-term history of the stand, and thus these species with their long life spans can persist. Most individuals of all four species grew extremely slowly, with trees typically spending centuries in the understory before reaching the canopy, where they were able to persist for additional centuries. Thus, the key features of this forest are the very slow dynamics dominated by small-scale events, and the slow growth of stress-tolerant trees.     

Climatic controls on distribution of Fagus crenata forests in Japan

Abstract. We used classification tree analysis to develop a climate‐based distribution model for Fagus crenata forests in Japan. Four climatic variables judged likely to affect the distribution of the species (summer and winter precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month and Kira's warmth index) were chosen as independent variables for the model. Latitudinal and longitudinal information was also used to examine effects of spatial autocorrelation on the model. The climatic factors associated with the distribution of the forests were analysed using a classification tree to devise prediction rules. Predicted areas of high probability for forest occurrence lay mainly on the Sea of Japan side of northern Honshu and southern Hokkaido. This is consistent with actual forest distribution. Some areas with high predicted probabilities of F. crenata forest occurrence were beyond the current natural northern range limits of these forests. Since these areas were widely scattered, it was assumed that the species has been hindered from colonizing them due to dispersal limitations. Deviance‐weighted scores, used to compare magnitudes of the contributions of predictor variables, revealed winter precipitation as the most influential factor, followed by the warmth index, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and summer precipitation. Attempts were made to generate ecological explanations for the effects of the four climatic factors on the distribution of F. crenata forests.     

Descriptive biogeography of Tomicus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) species in Spain

Aim, location Tomicus (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) species are some of the principal pests of Eurasian forest and are represented by three coexisting species in Spain, Tomicus piniperda (Linnaeus, 1758), Tomicus destruens (Wollaston, 1865) and Tomicus minor (Harting, 1834). The distribution of two taxa are unknown as they have until recently been considered separate species. Therefore, we model the potential distribution centres and establish the potential distribution limits of Tomicus species in Iberia. We also assess the effectiveness of different models by comparing predicted results with observed data. These results will have application in forest pest management. Methods Molecular and morphological techniques were used to identify species from 254 specimens of 81 plots. For each plot, a Geographical Information System was used to extract a set of 14 environmental (one topographic, six climatic) and biotic variables (seven host tree distributions). General Additive Models and Ecological Niche Factor Analysis models are applied for modelling and predicting the potential distribution of the three especies of Tomicus. Results The results of both modelling methodologies are in agreement. Tomicus destruens is the predominant species in Spain, living in low and hot areas. Tomicus piniperda occurs in lower frequency and prefers wet and cold areas of north‐central Spain. We detected sympatric populations of T. destruens and T. piniperda in Northern coast of Spain, infesting mainly P. pinaster. Tomicus minor is the rarest species, and it occupies a fragmented distribution located in high and wet areas. The remarkable biotic variable is the distribution of P. sylvestris, incorporated into the models of T. destruens and T. piniperda. Main conclusions These results indicate that in wet areas of north‐central Spain where T. piniperda occurs (and possibly the high altitudes of the southern mountains), T. destruens has a climatic distribution limit. In the northern border of this area, both species overlap their distributions and some co‐occurrences were detected. Tomicus minor potentially occurs in high and wet fragmented areas.