Dynamics of a harvested moose population in a variable environment

1. Population size, calves per female, female mean age and adult sex ratio of a moose ( Alces alces ) population in Vefsn, northern Norway were reconstructed from 1967 to 1993 using cohort analysis and catch-at-age data from 96% (6752) of all individuals harvested.
2. The dynamics of the population were influenced mainly by density-dependent harvesting, stochastic variation in climate and intrinsic variation in the age-structure of the female segment of the population.
3. A time delay in the assignment of hunting permits in relation to population size increased fluctuations in population size.
4. Selective harvesting of calves and yearlings increased the mean age of adult females in the population, and, because fecundity in moose is strongly age-specific, the number of calves per female concordantly increased. However, after years with high recruitment, the adult mean age decreased as large cohorts entered the adult age-groups. This age-structure effect generated cycles in the rate of recruitment to the population and fluctuations introduced time-lags in the population dynamics.
5. An inverse relationship between recruitment rate and population density, mediated by a density-dependent decrease in female body condition, could potentially have constituted a regulatory mechanism in the dynamics of the population, but this effect was counteracted by a density-dependent increase in the mean age of adult females.
6. Stochastic variation in winter snow depth and summer temperature had delayed effects on recruitment rate and in turn population growth rate, apparently through effects on female body condition before conception.     

Context‐dependent interplays between truncated demographies and climate variation shape the population growth rate of a harvested species

Fisheries ecologists traditionally aimed at disentangling climate and fishing effects from the population dynamics of exploited marine fish stocks. However, recent studies have shown that internal characteristics and external forcing (climate and exploitation) have interactive rather than additive effects. Thought most of these studies explored how demographic truncation induced by exploitation affected the response of recruitment to climate, identifying a general pattern revealed to be difficult as interactions are often case‐specific. Here we compared five exploited stocks of European hake Merluccius merluccius from the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea to investigate how the interaction between internal characteristics and external forces affect the variability of the population growth rate and their consequences on recruitment. Our results show that demographic truncation induces a novel population scenario in which the growth rate is maximized when the reproductive stock is younger and less diverse. This scenario is shaped by the climate variability and the fishing pattern. The population growth rate becomes more dependent on the maturation schedule and less on the survival rates. The consequences for the recruitment dynamics are twofold; the effect of density‐dependent regulatory processes decreases while the effect of the density‐independent drivers increases. Our study shows that the interaction between internal characteristics and external forces changes across geographic locations according to 1) the importance of demographic truncation, 2) the influence of the climate on the regional hydrography and 3) the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the physical environment to which fish life history is adapted.     

Geographical variation in the influence of density dependence and climate on the recruitment of Norwegian moose

The effects of variation in climate on population dynamics are likely to differ within the distributional range of a species, yet the consequences of such regional variation on demography and population dynamics are rarely considered. Here we examine how density dependence and different climate variables affect spatio-temporal variation in recruitment rates of Norwegian moose using data collected over a large geographical area during the hunting season. After accounting for observation error by a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, temporal variation in recruitment rates was relatively independent of fluctuations in local population size. In fact, a positive relationship was as common as a density-dependent decrease in fecundity rates. In general, high recruitment rates were found during autumn 1 year after years with a warm February, and after a warm May or cold June in year t − 1 or in year t. Large regional variation was also found in the effects of some of the weather variables, especially during spring. These patterns demonstrate both direct and delayed effects of weather on the recruitment of moose that possibly operate through an effect of body mass on the proportion of the females that sexually mature as 1.5 or 2.5 years old.     

Patchy population structure in a short-distance migrant: evidence from genetic and demographic data

Species often occur in subdivided populations as a consequence of spatial heterogeneity of the habitat. To describe the spatial organization of subpopulations, existing theory proposes three main population models: patchy population, metapopulation and isolated populations. These models differ in their predicted levels of connectivity among subpopulations, and in the risk that a subpopulation will go extinct. However, spatially discrete subpopulations are commonly considered to be organized as metapopulations, even though explicit tests of metapopulation assumptions are rare. Here, we test predictions of the three models on the basis of demographic and genetic data, a combined approach so far surprisingly little used in mobile organisms. From 2002 to 2005, we studied nine subpopulations of the wetland-restricted reed bunting ( Emberiza schoeniclus ) in the southeastern part of the Canton Zurich (Switzerland), from which local declines of this species have been reported. Here, wetlands are as small as 2.7 ha and separated through intensively used agricultural landscapes. Demographic data consisted of dispersal of colour-banded individuals among subpopulations, immigration rates and extinction-/recolonization dynamics. Genetic data were based on the distribution of genetic variability and gene flow among subpopulations derived from the analysis of nine microsatellite loci. Both demographic and genetic data revealed that the patchy population model best described the spatial organization of reed bunting subpopulations. High levels of dispersal among subpopulations, high immigration into the patchy population, and genetic admixture suggested little risk of extinction of both subpopulations and the entire patchy population. This study exemplifies the idea that spatially discrete subpopulations may be organized in ways other than a metapopulation, and hence has implications for the conservation of subpopulations and species.     

Patterns and causes of spatial variation in the reproductive success of a desert annual

Summary This study examines patterns and causes of variation in the reproductive success of the desert annual Stipa capensis. Three nested scales of variation were analyzed: variation between individuals of the same plot, variation between different plots of the same habitat, and variation between different habitats in the same region. Perturbation experiments (irrigation and neighbors removal) were performed to test the effects of heterogeneity in soil water and neighborhood competition on the magnitude of variation in each scale. The results demonstrate that variation of reproductive success was highest within plots, lowest between plots, and moderate between habitats. Soil water heterogeneity contributed to spatial variation in all scales but was most important for differences between habitats. Neighborhood competition increased the variation within plots, but decreased the variation between habitats. The results further demonstrate that water limitation was negatively correlated with the position of the habitat along the run-off/run-on gradient. An opposite trend was obtained for the effect of competition.     

Mitochondrial DNA variation of the common hippopotamus: evidence for a recent population expansion

Mitochondrial DNA control region sequence variation was obtained and the population history of the common hippopotamus was inferred from 109 individuals from 13 localities covering six populations in sub-Saharan Africa. In all, 100 haplotypes were defined, of which 98 were locality specific. A relatively low overall nucleotide diversity was observed (pi = 1.9%), as compared to other large mammals so far studied from the same region. Within populations, nucleotide diversity varied from 1.52% in Zambia to 1.92% in Queen Elizabeth and Masai Mara. Overall, low but significant genetic differentiation was observed in the total data set (F(ST) = 0.138; P = 0.001), and at the population level, patterns of differentiation support previously suggested hippopotamus subspecies designations (F(CT) = 0.103; P = 0.015). Evidence that the common hippopotamus recently expanded were revealed by: (i) lack of clear geographical structure among haplotypes, (ii) mismatch distributions of pairwise differences (r = 0.0053; P = 0.012) and site-frequency spectra, (iii) Fu's neutrality statistics (F(S) = -155.409; P < 0.00001) and (iv) Fu and Li's statistical tests (D* = -3.191; P < 0.01, F* = -2.668; P = 0.01). Mismatch distributions, site-frequency spectra and neutrality statistics performed at subspecies level also supported expansion of Hippopotamus amphibius across Africa. We interpret observed common hippopotamus population history in terms of Pleistocene drainage overflow and suggest recognising the three subspecies that were sampled in this study as separate management units in future conservation planning.     

橙腹田鼠中延缓性密度依赖效应和种群波动

检验了延迟的密度依赖对橙腹田鼠 (Microtusochrogaster)一个波动种群的生存和生殖的影响 ,研究持续了 63个月 ,取样间隔为 3 5天。在研究期间 ,该种群的密度经历了 4次波动 ,每次波动的高峰都在 11月至次年 1月 ,种群数量在冬季下降。生存和生殖都有负面的密度依赖效应 ,最大效应具有 2个月的时滞。种群存活率增长对种群密度最大的正面效应具有 2个月的时滞 ,而对与增加生殖则有 3个月的时滞。内部因素和冬季都可能推延对生殖的密度依赖效应 ,但是本文未能检验这些内部因素的影响。季节性影响看来与对生存的延缓性密度依赖效应无关。负面的延缓性密度依赖效应对生存和生殖的净作用可能在于减少、而不是阻止橙腹田鼠种群波动的幅度     

Geographical variation in dormancy in a copepod: evidence from population crosses

Populations of the freshwater copepod Mesocyclops edax inhabiting Michigan lakes are dormant during winter, whereas populations inhabiting Florida lakes develop and reproduce continuously throughout the year. A Michigan and a Florida population were exposed to dormancy inducing conditions (low temperature and short photoperiod) in the laboratory and observed for indications of dormancy. All Michigan individuals and a small percentage of the Florida individuals entered dormancy as indicated by prolonged duration of the fourth copepodid instar and cessation of feeding. I suggest that in these population these observations represent diapause, rather than quiescence. The two populations were crossbred to examine the nature of inheritance of dormancy. The F₁ hybrids exhibited an incidence of diapause approximately intermediate between the Florida and Michigan parental stocks. The backcrosses of F₁ individuals to the Michigan and Florida stocks, respectively, exhibited a high and an intermediate incidence of diapause. Survival of the F₂ crosses was very low. The present study presents evidence of genetic differentiation between the Michigan and Florida populations of M. edax with respect to ability to diapause.     

Life history variation in Arabidopsis lyrata across its range: effects of climate,population size and herbivory

For plants with wide distributional areas, covering a wide range of ecologically distinct habitats, evolutionary divergence can lead to substantial phenotypic variation across a species’ range. These intraspecific trait differences can be very informative about the nature of the selective environment as they potentially reflect different environmental selection pressures while controlling for other species characteristics. In this study, multiple regression and structural equation models were used to examine the relative importance of environmental, ecological, population size and population density effects for variation in growth, reproduction and leaf morphology among 36 populations of the perennial plant Arabidopsis lyrata ssp. petraea across its northwest European range. Substantial variation in temperature, soil nutrient levels and herbivory was observed across the species’ range. In addition, large differences in flowering percentage and individual seed production were found. Leaf morphology varied considerably, with a substantial amount of variation in specific leaf area and trichome density among populations. Structural equation modeling suggested that this species is sensitive to small population sizes, eutrophication and herbivory. Reproductive output was negatively related to herbivory. In addition population size was negatively associated with soil nutrient concentrations. Leaf morphology was shown to be mainly associated with temperature and herbivory. Lower specific leaf areas and lower trichome densities were related to colder areas and high trichomes densities were related to high levels of herbivory. These model results are consistent with the interpretation that, in addition to changing environmental effects across its range, ecological effects such as herbivory contribute to the large variation in life history and morphology of this species. The results reveal a strong negative effect of herbivory on the reproductive output of this species, not only via direct effects of herbivory on flowers and seeds, but also indirectly via a shift in life history strategy.     

Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.     

Seasonal variation in the photoperiodic responses of a pea aphid population: evidence for long-distance movements between populations

Summary The purpose of the study was to quantify long distance movements in populations of pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris), by estimating origins and distances travelled by immigrants into a southern Manitoba population. A strong relationship was demonstrated between latitude of origin and photoperiods at which pea aphid populations are stimulated to produce the diapause stage (Smith 1987). Therefore, the approach was to use photoperiodic response as a physiological marker to identify the source of immigrant aphids. The responses of 89 clones from Glenlea, Manitoba (49°38N), sampled 5 times over 2 seasons, were measured. One sample of clones collected the first season had photoperiodic responses similar to those of a population about 300 km to the south, and significantly different from clones collected in spring of the same year at the same site. Weather analysis corroberates that the migrants were probably carried into Manitoba on a southerly flow of air during the previous 24 to 36 h.     

A life‐history perspective on the demographic drivers of structured population dynamics in changing environments

Current understanding of life‐history evolution and how demographic parameters contribute to population dynamics across species is largely based on assumptions of either constant environments or stationary environmental variation. Meanwhile, species are faced with non‐stationary environmental conditions (changing mean, variance, or both) created by climate and landscape change. To close the gap between contemporary reality and demographic theory, we develop a set of transient life table response experiments (LTREs) for decomposing realised population growth rates into contributions from specific vital rates and components of population structure. Using transient LTREs in a theoretical framework, we reveal that established concepts in population biology will require revision because of reliance on approaches that do not address the influence of unstable population structure on population growth and mean fitness. Going forward, transient LTREs will enhance understanding of demography and improve the explanatory power of models used to understand ecological and evolutionary dynamics.     

Patterns of within-species body size variation of birds: strong evidence for Bergmann's rule

Aim The aim of this study is to test whether Bergmann's rule, a general intraspecific tendency towards larger body size in cooler areas and at higher latitudes, holds for birds throughout the world. Location This study includes information on species of birds from throughout the world. Methods I gathered data on body size variation from the literature and used two general meta‐analytical procedures to test the validity of Bergmann's rule in birds: a modified vote‐counting approach and calculation of overall effect sizes. Related species may show similar body size trends, thus I performed all analyses using nonphylogenetic and phylogenetic methods. I used tests of phylogenetic signal for each data set to decide which type of statistical analysis (nonphylogenetic or phylogenetic) was more appropriate. Results The majority of species of birds (76 of 100 species) are larger at higher latitudes, and in cooler areas (20 of 22 species). Birds show a grand mean correlation coefficient of +0.32 for body size and latitude, and ?0.81 for body size and temperature, both significant trends. Sedentary species show stronger body size trends in some, but not all, analyses. Neither males nor females consistently have stronger body size trends. Additionally, the strength of body size trends does not vary with latitude or body mass. Conclusions Bergmann's rule holds for birds throughout the world, regardless of whether temperature or latitude (as a proxy) is used. Previous studies have suggested that Bergmann's rule is stronger for sedentary than migratory species, males than females and temperate than tropical taxa. I did not find strong support for any of these as general themes for birds, although few studies of tropical taxa have been conducted. The processes responsible for Bergmann's rule remain somewhat of a black box; however, fasting endurance is probably a more important factor than the traditional hypothesis of heat conservation.     

Nutrient- and density-dependent effects in a producer-consumer model

A class of models of a nutrient-producer-consumer community is studied analytically and numerically. The analytical study focuses upon the role of total system nutrient and consumer density dependence in governing system behavior and especially, on the persistence and extinction of the population. The numerical study demonstrates that the relationship between consumer density dependence, total system nutrient, and dynamic system behavior can be complicated. Features of the model system include behavior determined solely by total system nutrient, behavior where the relationship between total system nutrient and density dependence governs system dynamics, and behavior where nutrient enrichment or deplation cannot modify ultimate system structure. A conclusion, robust for the model consumer density dependent formulation, indicates that, in the case of ample total nutrient, persistence of the community is independent of consumer density dependence.     

Winter climate, age, and population density affect the timing of conception in female moose (Alces alces)

Phenological events such as conception or parturition dates may have profound impact on several key life-history traits of ungulates at the individual as well as the population level. However, relatively little is known about the causes of variation in the timing of reproduction. Based on a 17-year survey of reproductive tracts, we investigated the effect of climate, population density, and age on the conception date of female moose (Alces alces) harvested in Estonia. Ninety-five percent of studied moose cows were conceived within a period of 9 weeks (29 August–30 October), while more than 45 % of all moose cows were conceived from 19 September to 2 October. Conception date was negatively related to population density and nonlinearly to the regional measure of winter climate reflecting the maximal extent of ice on the Baltic Sea (MIE) in the previous winter. High air temperatures during rut (in September) delayed the conception date. The timing of conception also depended on female age. Yearlings conceived significantly later as compared to females of all other age groups. Our findings corroborate the importance of density-dependent as well density-independent processes on the timing of conception of this ungulate. We also propose that the effect of population density on conception date may be mediated by increasing ecological carrying capacity concurrent with increasing population abundance.     

Field evidence for density-dependent effects in the trematode Microphallus papillorobustus in its manipulated host, Gammarus insensibilis

Numerous studies have demonstrated that parasites with complex life cycles frequently manipulate the phenotype of their hosts to increase their transmission rate. Little is known, however, concerning density-dependent processes within infrapopulations of manipulative parasites--whether parasites cooperate to manipulate the host, whether competition counteracts with these potential cooperative benefits, or both. Here we explored these ideas, focusing on the association between the manipulative trematode Microphallus papillorobustus and its second intermediate host, the gammarid Gammarus insensibilis. From the data collected in the field, we found no evidence that co-occurring M. papillorobustus individuals benefit from the presence of conspecifics; instead, individuals in larger infrapopulations suffered reduced size and fecundity. Thus, the net effect of increasing density suggests that competition rather than cooperation is the dominant force in infrapopulations of M. papillorobustus.