Comparability of results from pair and classical model formulations for different sexually transmitted infections

The "classical model" for sexually transmitted infections treats partnerships as instantaneous events summarized by partner change rates, while individual-based and pair models explicitly account for time within partnerships and gaps between partnerships. We compared predictions from the classical and pair models over a range of partnership and gap combinations. While the former predicted similar or marginally higher prevalence at the shortest partnership lengths, the latter predicted self-sustaining transmission for gonorrhoea (GC) and Chlamydia (CT) over much broader partnership and gap combinations. Predictions on the critical level of condom use (C(c)) required to prevent transmission also differed substantially when using the same parameters. When calibrated to give the same disease prevalence as the pair model by adjusting the infectious duration for GC and CT, and by adjusting transmission probabilities for HIV, the classical model then predicted much higher C(c) values for GC and CT, while C(c) predictions for HIV were fairly close. In conclusion, the two approaches give different predictions over potentially important combinations of partnership and gap lengths. Assuming that it is more correct to explicitly model partnerships and gaps, then pair or individual-based models may be needed for GC and CT since model calibration does not resolve the differences.     

Heterosexual spread of human immunodeficiency virus in Edinburgh

Heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was investigated in 123 subjects with no apparent risk factor for infection other than having had heterosexual intercourse with a person who was either infected with HIV or at high risk of being infected with it. Seven subjects were found to be infected with the virus. Risk factors for transmission included being the regular sexual partner of an abuser of intravenous drugs and having a sexual relationship of more than 18 months'' duration. Anal intercourse was not a risk factor in the three subjects who admitted to it. There were 41 regular partnerships with abusers of intravenous drugs in which the antibody state and history were fully known for both partners. In these partnerships male to female transmission of the virus occurred in five out of 34 (15%) and female to male in one out of seven. In 30 couples in whom one partner was known to be positive for HIV and an abuser of intravenous drugs four female partners were found to be seropositive at first testing, but there were no new positive results on subsequent serial testing. In six of these 30 couples both partners abused intravenous drugs but the partner who was negative for HIV remained so. Few of the partnerships always practised safe sexual techniques, even after a partner was known to be positive for HIV.Heterosexual transmission of HIV occurred but was incomplete and may be related to the timing of the relationship with the infection.     

The initialization and sensitivity of multigroup models for the transmission of HIV

We study two multigroup mathematical models of the spread of HIV. In the differential infectivity model, the infected population is divided into groups according to their infectiousness, and HIV is primarily spread by a small, highly infectious, group of superspreaders. In the staged-progression model, every infected individual goes through a series of infection stages and the virus is primarily spread by individuals in an initial highly infectious stage or in the late stages of the disease. We demonstrate the importance of choosing appropriate initial conditions, and define a new approach to distributing the initial population among the subgroups so as to minimize the artificial transients in the solutions due to unbalanced initial conditions. We demonstrate that the rate of removal in and out of a population is an important, yet often neglected, effect. We also illustrate the importance of distinguishing between the number of partners a person has and the number of contacts per partner. By assuming that people with many partners have fewer contacts per partner than people with few partners, we found that the epidemic is less sensitive to the partner acquisition rate than one might expect. However, because the probability of transmission of HIV per contact is low, the epidemic is very sensitive to the number of contacts per partner. Modeling this distinction is particularly important when estimating the impact of programs which encourage people to have fewer sexual partners.     

Characteristics of HIV-1 serodiscordant couples enrolled in a clinical trial of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention

Introduction

Stable heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Africa have high HIV-1 transmission rates and are a critical population for evaluation of new HIV-1 prevention strategies. The Partners PrEP Study is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of tenofovir and emtricitabine-tenofovir pre-exposure prophylaxis to decrease HIV-1 acquisition within heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. We describe the trial design and characteristics of the study cohort.

Methods

HIV-1 serodiscordant couples, in which the HIV-1 infected partner did not meet national guidelines for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, were enrolled at 9 research sites in Kenya and Uganda. The HIV-1 susceptible partner was randomized to daily oral tenofovir, emtricitabine-tenofovir, or matching placebo with monthly follow-up for 24–36 months.

Results

From July 2008 to November 2010, 7920 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples were screened and 4758 enrolled. For 62% (2966/4758) of enrolled couples, the HIV-1 susceptible partner was male. Median age was 33 years for HIV-1 susceptible and HIV-1 infected partners [IQR (28–40) and (26–39) respectively]. Most couples (98%) were married, with a median duration of partnership of 7.0 years (IQR 3.0–14.0) and recent knowledge of their serodiscordant status [median 0.4 years (IQR 0.1–2.0)]. During the month prior to enrollment, couples reported a median of 4 sex acts (IQR 2–8); 27% reported unprotected sex and 14% of male and 1% of female HIV-1 susceptible partners reported sex with outside partners. Among HIV-1 infected partners, the median plasma HIV-1 level was 3.94 log₁₀ copies/mL (IQR 3.31–4.53) and median CD4 count was 496 cells/µL (IQR 375–662); the majority (64%) had WHO stage 1 HIV-1 disease.

Conclusions

Couples at high risk of HIV-1 transmission were rapidly recruited into the Partners PrEP Study, the largest efficacy trial of oral PrEP. (ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00557245","term_id":"NCT00557245"}}NCT00557245)     

Short-term Mobility and Increased Partnership Concurrency among Men in Zimbabwe

Background

Migration has long been understood as an underlying factor for HIV transmission, and sexual partner concurrency has been increasingly studied as an important component of HIV transmission dynamics. However, less work has examined the role of short-term mobility in sexual partner concurrency using a network approach. Short-term mobility may be a risk for HIV for the migrant’s partner as well either through the partner’s risk behaviors while the migrant is away, such as the partner having additional partners, or via exposure to the return migrant.

Methods

Using data from the 2010–11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, weighted generalized linear regression models were used to investigate the associations between short-term mobility and partnership concurrency at the individual and partnership levels.

Results

At the individual level, we find strong evidence of an association between short-term mobility and concurrency. Men who traveled were more likely to have concurrent partnerships compared to men who did not travel and the relationship was non-linear: each trip was associated with a 2% higher probability of concurrency, with a diminishing risk at 60 trips (p<0.001). At the partnership level, short-term mobility by the male only or both partners was associated with male concurrency. Couples in which the female only traveled exhibited less male concurrency.

Conclusions

Short-term mobility has the ability to impact population-level transmission dynamics by facilitating partnership concurrency and thus onward HIV transmission. Short-term migrants may be an important population to target for HIV testing, treatment, or social and behavioral interventions to prevent the spread of HIV.     

Intimate Injection Partnerships Are at Elevated Risk of High-Risk Injecting: A Multi-Level Longitudinal Study of HCV-Serodiscordant Injection Partnerships in San Francisco,CA

Background

It is increasingly recognized that the risk for HIV and hepatitis C (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID), such as syringe sharing, occurs in the context of relationships between (at least) two people. Evidence suggests that the risk associated with injection behavior varies with injection partner types.

Methods

We utilized longitudinal dyad-level data from a study of young PWID from San Francisco (2006 to 2013) to investigate the relationship-level factors influencing high-risk injecting within HCV-serodiscordant injection partners (i.e., individuals who injected together ≥5 times in the prior month). Utilizing data from 70 HCV-serodiscordant injection partnerships, we used generalized linear models to examine relationship-level predictors (i.e., partnership composition, partnership closeness, and partnership dynamics) of: (1) receptive syringe sharing (RSS); and (2) receptive cooker use (RCU), as reported by the HCV-negative injection partner.

Results

As reported by the “at-risk” HCV-negative injection partner, receptive syringe sharing (RSS) and receptive cooker use (RCU) were 19% and 33% at enrollment, and 11% and 12% over all visits (total follow-up time 55 person-years) resulting in 13 new HCV-infections (incidence rate: 23.8/100 person-years). Person-level factors, injection partnership composition, and partnership dynamics were not significantly associated with either RSS or RCU. Instead, intimate injection partnerships (those who lived together and were also in a sexual relationship) were independently associated with a 5-times greater risk of both RSS and a 7-times greater risk of RCU when compared to injecting only partnerships.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest a positive, and amplified effect of relationship factors on injecting drug risk behaviors among young PWID injection partnerships. The majority of interventions to reduce injection drug use related harms focus on individual-based education to increase drug use knowledge. Our findings support the need to expand harm reduction strategies to relationship-based messaging and interventions.     

A stochastic model for the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population.

A non-age-dependent model, describing the evolution of a bisexual population, is developed in this paper and applied to projecting an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population. Included in the formulation are frequency- and non-frequency-dependent rules of partnership formation as well as five states of HIV disease, affecting the probability of infection per sexual contact. Results from computer experiments, designed to study the development of an AIDS epidemic in a heterosexual population fed by single males with a 50% prevalence of HIV infection prior to becoming active in heterosexual partnerships, are reported. In these experiments, the only source of HIV infection for females was sexual contacts with infected males within partnerships. Data on the probability of infection per sexual contact with an infected partner and the number of sexual contacts per month were incorporated into the model. However, the numbers used for the initial population of singles, couples, and those becoming sexually active per month were hypothetical. Even though the prevalence of HIV infection among males entering heterosexual partnerships was high, after 30 years the projected prevalence of HIV infection among females ranged from about 10 to 15% depending in part on the expected duration of partnerships and on whether the frequency- or non-frequency-dependent model was used. In these experiments, solutions of the embedded, nonlinear, deterministic equations for the incidence of HIV infection and the cumulative number of deaths due to AIDS proved to be good measures of central tendency for the sample functions of the stochastic population process.     

What Drives the US and Peruvian HIV Epidemics in Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM)?

In this work, we estimate the proportions of transmissions occurring in main vs. casual partnerships, and by the sexual role, infection stage, and testing and treatment history of the infected partner, for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US and Peru. We use dynamic, stochastic models based in exponential random graph models (ERGMs), obtaining inputs from multiple large-scale MSM surveys. Parallel main partnership and casual sexual networks are simulated. Each man is characterized by age, race, circumcision status, sexual role behavior, and propensity for unprotected anal intercourse (UAI); his history is modeled from entry into the adult population, with potential transitions including HIV infection, detection, treatment, AIDS diagnosis, and death. We implemented two model variants differing in assumptions about acute infectiousness, and assessed sensitivity to other key inputs. Our two models suggested that only 4–5% (Model 1) or 22–29% (Model 2) of HIV transmission results from contacts with acute-stage partners; the plurality (80–81% and 49%, respectively) stem from chronic-stage partners and the remainder (14–16% and 27–35%, respectively) from AIDS-stage partners. Similar proportions of infections stem from partners whose infection is undiagnosed (24–31%), diagnosed but untreated (36–46%), and currently being treated (30–36%). Roughly one-third of infections (32–39%) occur within main partnerships. Results by country were qualitatively similar, despite key behavioral differences; one exception was that transmission from the receptive to insertive partner appears more important in Peru (34%) than the US (21%). The broad balance in transmission contexts suggests that education about risk, careful assessment, pre-exposure prophylaxis, more frequent testing, earlier treatment, and risk-reduction, disclosure, and adherence counseling may all contribute substantially to reducing the HIV incidence among MSM in the US and Peru.     

General practice partnerships: till death us do part?

OBJECTIVES--To investigate applications for general practice partnership vacancies by established general practitioner principals, the reasons for changing partnerships, and the disincentives to these moves. DESIGN--Confidential postal questionnaire. SUBJECTS--Applicants to 367 general practices in the United Kingdom advertising for a new full time partner. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The proportion of job applications containing at least one application from established principals, proportion of principals appointed as new partners, incentives and disincentives to changing partnership. RESULTS--Of 325 replies (89% response rate) received, 292 were suitable for further analysis. 210/241 (87%) of all applications contained some applications from at least one established principal. 12% of all applications were made by principals. 41/296 (14%) of the newly appointed partners had previously been an established principal. The main reasons for leaving the previous partnership were a desire to move locality or not getting on with previous partners. The disincentives to changing partnerships were largely financial, including the cost of the move and loss of income. CONCLUSIONS--It is possible for established principals in general practice to overcome the disincentives and to change partnerships. There did not seem to be any overall prejudice against appointing principals, in contrast to previously published views.     

Partnership dynamics and strain competition

Models of epidemic spread that include partnership dynamics within the host population have demonstrated that finite length partnerships can limit the spread of pathogens. Here the influence of partnerships on strain competition is investigated. A simple epidemic and partnership formation model is used to demonstrate that, in contrast to standard epidemiological models, the constraint introduced by partnerships can influence the success of pathogen strains. When partnership turnover is slow, strains must have a long infectious period in order to persist, a requirement of much less importance when partnership turnover is rapid. By introducing a trade-off between transmission rate and infectious period it is shown that populations with different behaviours can favour different strains. Implications for control measures based on behavioural modifications are discussed, with such measures perhaps leading to the emergence of new strains.     

Optimal uses of antiretrovirals for prevention in HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual couples in South Africa: a modelling study

Background

Antiretrovirals have substantial promise for HIV-1 prevention, either as antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV-1–infected persons to reduce infectiousness, or as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-1–uninfected persons to reduce the possibility of infection with HIV-1. HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in long-term partnerships (one member is infected and the other is uninfected) are a priority for prevention interventions. Earlier ART and PrEP might both reduce HIV-1 transmission in this group, but the merits and synergies of these different approaches have not been analyzed.

Methods and Findings

We constructed a mathematical model to examine the impact and cost-effectiveness of different strategies, including earlier initiation of ART and/or PrEP, for HIV-1 prevention for serodiscordant couples. Although the cost of PrEP is high, the cost per infection averted is significantly offset by future savings in lifelong treatment, especially among couples with multiple partners, low condom use, and a high risk of transmission. In some situations, highly effective PrEP could be cost-saving overall. To keep couples alive and without a new infection, providing PrEP to the uninfected partner could be at least as cost-effective as initiating ART earlier in the infected partner, if the annual cost of PrEP is <40% of the annual cost of ART and PrEP is >70% effective.

Conclusions

Strategic use of PrEP and ART could substantially and cost-effectively reduce HIV-1 transmission in HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. New and forthcoming data on the efficacy of PrEP, the cost of delivery of ART and PrEP, and couples behaviours and preferences will be critical for optimizing the use of antiretrovirals for HIV-1 prevention. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Risk of Stable Partnerships: Associations between Partnership Characteristics and Unprotected Anal Intercourse among Men Who Have Sex with Men and Transgender Women Recently Diagnosed with HIV and/or STI in Lima,Peru

Background

Partnership type is an important factor associated with unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) and subsequent risk for HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STI). We examined the association of partnership type with UAI among men who have sex with men (MSM) and male-to-female transgender women (TGW) in Lima, Peru, recently diagnosed with HIV and/or STI.

Methods

We report data from a cross-sectional analysis of MSM and TGW recently diagnosed with HIV and/or STI in Lima, Peru between 2011 and 2012. We surveyed participants regarding UAI with up to their three most recent sexual partners according to partner type. Multivariable Generalized Estimate Equating (GEE) models with Poisson distribution were used to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) for UAI according to partner type.

Results

Among 339 MSM and TGW recently diagnosed with HIV and/or STI (mean age: 30.6 years, SD 9.0), 65.5% self-identified as homosexual/gay, 16.0% as bisexual, 15.2% as male-to-female transgender, and 3.3% as heterosexual. Participants provided information on 893 recent male or TGW partners with whom they had engaged in insertive or receptive anal intercourse: 28.9% stable partners, 56.4% non-stable/non-transactional partners (i.e. casual or anonymous), and 14.7% transactional partners (i.e. transactional sex client or sex worker). Unprotected anal intercourse was reported with 41.3% of all partners. In multivariable analysis, factors associated with UAI included partnership type (non-stable/non-transactional partner APR 0.73, [95% CI 0.59–0.91], transactional partner APR 0.53 [0.36–0.78], p<0.05) and the number of previous sexual encounters with the partner (>10 encounters APR 1.43 [1.06–1.92], p<0.05).

Conclusion

UAI was more commonly reported for stable partners and in partnerships with >10 sexual encounters, suggesting UAI is more prevalent in partnerships with a greater degree of interpersonal commitment. Further research assessing partner-level factors and behavior is critical for improving HIV and/or STI prevention efforts among Peruvian MSM and TGW.     

HIV Status Awareness,Partnership Dissolution and HIV Transmission in Generalized Epidemics

Objectives

HIV status aware couples with at least one HIV positive partner are characterized by high separation and divorce rates. This phenomenon is often described as a corollary of couples HIV Testing and Counseling (HTC) that ought to be minimized. In this contribution, we demonstrate the implications of partnership dissolution in serodiscordant couples for the propagation of HIV.

Methods

We develop a compartmental model to study epidemic outcomes of elevated partnership dissolution rates in serodiscordant couples and parameterize it with estimates from population-based data (Rakai, Uganda).

Results

Via its effect on partnership dissolution, every percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence in monogamous populations by 0.27 percent for women and 0.63 percent for men. These effects are even larger when the assumption of monogamy can be relaxed, but are moderated by other behavior changes (e.g., increased condom use) in HIV status aware serodiscordant partnerships. When these behavior changes are taken into account, each percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence by 0.13 and 0.32 percent for women and men, respectively (assuming monogamy). The partnership dissolution effect exists because it decreases the fraction of serodiscordant couples in the population and prolongs the time that individuals spend outside partnerships.

Conclusion

Our model predicts that elevated partnership dissolution rates in HIV status aware serodiscordant couples reduce the spread of HIV. As a consequence, the full impact of couples HTC for HIV prevention is probably larger than recognized to date. Particularly high partnership dissolution rates in female positive serodiscordant couples contribute to the gender imbalance in HIV infections.     

The Role of Viral Introductions in Sustaining Community-Based HIV Epidemics in Rural Uganda: Evidence from Spatial Clustering,Phylogenetics, and Egocentric Transmission Models

Background

It is often assumed that local sexual networks play a dominant role in HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of this study was to determine the extent to which continued HIV transmission in rural communities—home to two-thirds of the African population—is driven by intra-community sexual networks versus viral introductions from outside of communities.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed the spatial dynamics of HIV transmission in rural Rakai District, Uganda, using data from a cohort of 14,594 individuals within 46 communities. We applied spatial clustering statistics, viral phylogenetics, and probabilistic transmission models to quantify the relative contribution of viral introductions into communities versus community- and household-based transmission to HIV incidence. Individuals living in households with HIV-incident (n = 189) or HIV-prevalent (n = 1,597) persons were 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7–3.7) times more likely to be HIV infected themselves compared to the population in general, but spatial clustering outside of households was relatively weak and was confined to distances <500 m. Phylogenetic analyses of gag and env genes suggest that chains of transmission frequently cross community boundaries. A total of 95 phylogenetic clusters were identified, of which 44% (42/95) were two individuals sharing a household. Among the remaining clusters, 72% (38/53) crossed community boundaries. Using the locations of self-reported sexual partners, we estimate that 39% (95% CI: 34%–42%) of new viral transmissions occur within stable household partnerships, and that among those infected by extra-household sexual partners, 62% (95% CI: 55%–70%) are infected by sexual partners from outside their community. These results rely on the representativeness of the sample and the quality of self-reported partnership data and may not reflect HIV transmission patterns outside of Rakai.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that HIV introductions into communities are common and account for a significant proportion of new HIV infections acquired outside of households in rural Uganda, though the extent to which this is true elsewhere in Africa remains unknown. Our results also suggest that HIV prevention efforts should be implemented at spatial scales broader than the community and should target key populations likely responsible for introductions into communities. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Statistical analysis of HIV infectivity based on partner studies

Partner studies produce data on the infection status of partners of individuals known or assumed to be infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) after a known or estimated number of contacts. Previous studies have assumed a constant probability of transmission (infectivity) of the virus at each contact. Recently, interest has focused on the possibility of heterogeneity of infectivity across partnerships. This paper develops parametric and nonparametric procedures based on partner data in order to examine the risk of infection after a given number of contacts. Graphical methods and inference techniques are presented that allow the investigator to evaluate the constant infectivity model and consider the impact of heterogeneity of infectivity, error in measurement of the number of contacts, and regression effects of other covariates. The majority of the methods can be computationally implemented easily with use of software to fit generalized linear models. The concepts and techniques are closely related to ideas from discrete survival analysis. A data set on heterosexual transmission is used to illustrate the methods.     

Development,Calibration and Performance of an HIV Transmission Model Incorporating Natural History and Behavioral Patterns: Application in South Africa

Understanding HIV transmission dynamics is critical to estimating the potential population-wide impact of HIV prevention and treatment interventions. We developed an individual-based simulation model of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa and linked it to the previously published Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International Model, which simulates the natural history and treatment of HIV. In this new model, the CEPAC Dynamic Model (CDM), the probability of HIV transmission per sexual encounter between short-term, long-term and commercial sex worker partners depends upon the HIV RNA and disease stage of the infected partner, condom use, and the circumcision status of the uninfected male partner. We included behavioral, demographic and biological values in the CDM and calibrated to HIV prevalence in South Africa pre-antiretroviral therapy. Using a multi-step fitting procedure based on Bayesian melding methodology, we performed 264,225 simulations of the HIV epidemic in South Africa and identified 3,750 parameter sets that created an epidemic and had behavioral characteristics representative of a South African population pre-ART. Of these parameter sets, 564 contributed 90% of the likelihood weight to the fit, and closely reproduced the UNAIDS HIV prevalence curve in South Africa from 1990–2002. The calibration was sensitive to changes in the rate of formation of short-duration partnerships and to the partnership acquisition rate among high-risk individuals, both of which impacted concurrency. Runs that closely fit to historical HIV prevalence reflect diverse ranges for individual parameter values and predict a wide range of possible steady-state prevalence in the absence of interventions, illustrating the value of the calibration procedure and utility of the model for evaluating interventions. This model, which includes detailed behavioral patterns and HIV natural history, closely fits HIV prevalence estimates.     

Analysis and simulation of a stochastic, discrete-individual model of STD transmission with partnership concurrency

Deterministic differential equation models indicate that partnership concurrency and non-homogeneous mixing patterns play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Stochastic discrete-individual simulation studies arrive at similar conclusions, but from a very different modeling perspective. This paper presents a stochastic discrete-individual infection model that helps to unify these two approaches to infection modeling. The model allows for both partnership concurrency, as well as the infection, recovery, and reinfection of an individual from repeated contact with a partner, as occurs with many mucosal infections. The simplest form of the model is a network-valued Markov chain, where the network's nodes are individuals and arcs represent partnerships. Connections between the differential equation and discrete-individual approaches are constructed with large-population limits that approximate endemic levels and equilibrium probability distributions that describe partnership concurrency. A more general form of the discrete-individual model that allows for semi-Markovian dynamics and heterogeneous contact patterns is implemented in simulation software. Analytical and simulation results indicate that the basic reproduction number R(0) increases when reinfection is possible, and the epidemic rate of rise and endemic levels are not related by 1-1/R(0), when partnerships are not point-time processes.     

Cumulative Impact of Host and Viral Factors on HIV-1 Viral-Load Control during Early Infection

In HIV-1 infection, the early set-point viral load strongly predicts both viral transmission and disease progression. The factors responsible for the wide spectrum of set-point viral loads are complex and likely reflect an interplay between the transmitted virus and genetically defined factors in both the transmitting source partner and the seroconverter. Indeed, analysis of 195 transmission pairs from Lusaka, Zambia, revealed that the viral loads in transmitting source partners contributed only ∼2% of the variance in early set-point viral loads of seroconverters (P = 0.046 by univariable analysis). In multivariable models, early set-point viral loads in seroconverting partners were a complex function of (i) the viral load in the source partner, (ii) the gender of the seroconverter, (iii) specific HLA class I alleles in the newly infected partner, and (iv) sharing of HLA-I alleles between partners in a transmission pair. Each of these factors significantly and independently contributed to the set-point viral load in the newly infected partner, accounting for up to 37% of the variance observed and suggesting that many factors operate in concert to define the early virological phenotype in HIV-1 infection.