Soil geochemistry confines microbial abundances across an arctic landscape; implications for net carbon exchange with the atmosphere

A large portion of the World’s terrestrial organic carbon is stored in Arctic permafrost soils. However, due to permafrost warming and increased in situ microbial mineralisation of released carbon, greenhouse gas releases from Arctic soils are increasing, including methane (CH_4(g)). To identify environmental controls on such releases, we characterised soil geochemistry and microbial community conditions in 13 near-surface Arctic soils collected across Kongsfjorden, Svalbard. Statistically significant correlations were found between proxies for carbonate mineral content (i.e. Ca and Mg) and soil pH (Spearman rho = 0.87, p < 0.001). In turn, pH significantly inversely correlated with bacterial and Type I methanotroph gene abundances across the soils (r = ?0.71, p = 0.01 and r = ?0.74, p = 0.006, respectively), which also co-varied with soil phosphorous (P) level (r = 0.79, p = 0.01 and r = 0.63, p = 0.02, respectively). These results suggest that soil P supply, which is controlled by pH and other factors, significantly influences in situ microbial abundances in these Arctic soils. Overall, we conclude microbial responses to increasing ‘old carbon’ releases in this Arctic region are constrained by nutrient-deficiency in surface soils, with consequential impacts on the flux and composition of carbon gasses released to the atmosphere.     

Functional performance of turtle humerus shape across an ecological adaptive landscape

The concept of the adaptive landscape has been invaluable to evolutionary biologists for visualizing the dynamics of selection and adaptation, and is increasingly being used to study morpho‐functional data. Here, we construct adaptive landscapes to explore functional trade‐offs associated with variation in humerus morphology among turtles adapted to three different locomotor environments: marine, semiaquatic, and terrestrial. Humerus shape from 40 species of cryptodire turtles was quantified using a pseudolandmark approach. Hypothetical shapes were extracted in a grid across morphospace and four functional traits (strength, stride length, mechanical advantage, and hydrodynamics) measured on those shapes. Quantitative trait modeling was used to construct adaptive landscapes that optimize the functional traits for each of the three locomotor ecologies. Our data show that turtles living in different environments have statistically different humeral shapes. The optimum adaptive landscape for each ecology is defined by a different combination of performance trade‐offs, with turtle species clustering around their respective adaptive peak. Further, species adhere to pareto fronts between marine–semiaquatic and semiaquatic–terrestrial optima, but not between marine–terrestrial. Our study demonstrates the utility of adaptive landscapes in informing the link between form, function, and ecological adaptation, and establishes a framework for reconstructing turtle ecological evolution using isolated humeri from the fossil record.     

Occupancy patterns of an apex avian predator across a forest landscape

Apex predators are integral parts of every ecosystem, having top‐down roles in food web maintenance. Understanding the environmental and habitat characteristics associated with predator occurrence is paramount to conservation efforts. However, detecting top order predators can be difficult due to small population sizes and cryptic behaviour. The endangered Tasmanian masked owl (Tyto novaehollandiae castanops) is a nocturnal predator with a distribution understood to be associated with high mature forest cover at broad scales. With the aim to gather monitoring data to inform future conservation effort, we trialled an occupancy survey design to model masked owl occurrence across ~800 km² in the Tasmanian Southern Forests. We conducted 662 visits to assess masked owl occupancy at 160 sites during July–September 2018. Masked owl site occupancy was 12%, and estimated detectability was 0.26 (±0.06 SE). Cumulative detection probability of masked owls over four visits was 0.7. Occupancy modelling suggested owls were more likely to be detected when mean prey count was higher. However, low detection rates hindered the development of confident occupancy predictions. To inform effective conservation of the endangered Tasmanian masked owl, there is a need to develop novel survey techniques that better account for the ecology of this rare, wide‐ranging and cryptic predator. We discuss the potential to combine novel census approaches that exploit different aspects of masked owl ecology to obtain more robust and detailed data.     

Diversification across a heterogeneous landscape

Adaptation to contrasting environments across a heterogeneous landscape favors the formation of ecotypes by promoting ecological divergence. Patterns of fitness variation in the field can show whether natural selection drives local adaptation and ecotype formation. However, to demonstrate a link between ecological divergence and speciation, local adaptation must have consequences for reproductive isolation. Using contrasting ecotypes of an Australian wildflower, Senecio lautus in common garden experiments, hybridization experiments, and reciprocal transplants, we assessed how the environment shapes patterns of adaptation and the consequences of adaptive divergence for reproductive isolation. Local adaptation was strong between ecotypes, but weaker between populations of the same ecotype. F1 hybrids exhibited heterosis, but crosses involving one native parent performed better than those with two foreign parents. In a common garden experiment, F2 hybrids exhibited reduced fitness compared to parentals and F1 hybrids, suggesting that few genetic incompatibilities have accumulated between populations adapted to contrasting environments. Our results show how ecological differences across the landscape have created complex patterns of local adaptation and reproductive isolation, suggesting that divergent natural selection has played a fundamental role in the early stages of species diversification.     

Tracing carbon flow in an arctic marine food web using fatty acid-stable isotope analysis

Global warming and the loss of sea ice threaten to alter patterns of productivity in arctic marine ecosystems because of a likely decline in primary productivity by sea ice algae. Estimates of the contribution of ice algae to total primary production range widely, from just 3 to >50%, and the importance of ice algae to higher trophic levels remains unknown. To help answer this question, we investigated a novel approach to food web studies by combining the two established methods of stable isotope analysis and fatty acid (FA) analysis--we determined the C isotopic composition of individual diatom FA and traced these biomarkers in consumers. Samples were collected near Barrow, Alaska and included ice algae, pelagic phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, seabirds, pinnipeds and cetaceans. Ice algae and pelagic phytoplankton had distinctive overall FA signatures and clear differences in delta(13)C for two specific diatom FA biomarkers: 16:4n-1 (-24.0+/-2.4 and -30.7+/-0.8 per thousand, respectively) and 20:5n-3 (-18.3+/-2.0 and -26.9+/-0.7 per thousand, respectively). Nearly all delta(13)C values of these two FA in consumers fell between the two stable isotopic end members. A mass balance equation indicated that FA material derived from ice algae, compared to pelagic diatoms, averaged 71% (44-107%) in consumers based on delta(13)C values of 16:4n-1, but only 24% (0-61%) based on 20:5n-3. Our estimates derived from 16:4n-1, which is produced only by diatoms, probably best represented the contribution of ice algae relative to pelagic diatoms. However, many types of algae produce 20:5n-3, so the lower value derived from it likely represented a more realistic estimate of the proportion of ice algae material relative to all other types of phytoplankton. These preliminary results demonstrate the potential value of compound-specific isotope analysis of marine lipids to trace C flow through marine food webs and provide a foundation for future work.     

Effects of labile soil carbon on nutrient partitioning between an arctic graminoid and microbes

We measured partitioning of N and P uptake between soil microorganisms and potted Festuca vivipara in soil from a subarctic heath in response to factorial addition of three levels of labile carbon (glucose) combined with two levels of inorganic N and P. The glucose was added to either non-sterilized or sterilized (autoclaved) soils in quantities which were within the range of reported, naturally occurring amounts of C released periodically from the plant canopy. The aims were, firstly, to examine whether the glucose stimulated microbial nutrient uptake to the extent of reducing plant nutrient uptake. This is expected in nutrient-deficient soils if microbes and plants compete for the same nutrients. Secondly, we wanted to test our earlier␣interpretation that growth reduction observed in graminoids after addition of leaf extracts could be caused directly by labile carbon addition, rather than by phytotoxins in the extracts. Addition of high amounts of N did not affect the microbial N pool, whereas high amounts of added P significantly increased the microbial P pool, indicating a luxury P uptake in the microbes. Both plant N and in particular P uptake increased strongly in response to soil sterilization and to addition of extra N or P. The increased␣uptake led to enhanced plant growth when both elements were applied in high amounts, but only led to increased tissue concentrations without growth responses when the nutrients were added separately. Glucose had strong and contrasting effects on plant and microbial N and P uptake. Microbial N and P uptake increased, soil inorganic N and P concentrations were reduced and plant N and P uptake declined when glucose was added. The responses were dose-dependent within the range of 0–450 μg C g⁻¹ soil added to the non-sterilized soil. The opposite responses of plants and microbes showed that plant acquisition of limiting nutrients is dependent on release of nutrients from the soil microbes, which is under strong regulation by the availability and microbial uptake of labile C. Hence, we conclude, firstly, that the microbial populations can compete efficiently with plants for nutrients to an extent of affecting plant growth when the microbial access to labile carbon is high in nutrient deficient soils. We also conclude that reduced growth of plants after addition of leaf extracts to soil can be caused by carbon-induced shifts in nutrient partitioning between plants and microbes, and not necessarily by phytotoxins added with the extracts as suggested by some experiments. Received: 15 February 1997 / Accepted: 12 July 1997     

Effect of landscape factors on fish distribution in arctic Alaskan lakes

1. The distribution of species is affected by many factors operating at a variety of temporal and spatial scales in a heterogeneous landscape. In lakes, fish communities are dynamic, influenced by landscape‐level factors that control colonisation and extinction. 2. We used classification and regression tree (CART) analyses to quantify the importance of landscape‐level factors in determining the distribution of fish species in 168 arctic Alaskan lakes. Factors including lake size, depth, outflow gradient, distance to other lakes, lake order, altitude, river drainage and age of glacial surface were analysed. These factors could affect either access of fish to a lake (colonisation variables), or their survival in a lake that already had been colonised (extinction variables). 3. The presence of a species was predicted accurately in 78.4% ± 10.5% (mean ± SD) of cases, and absence in 75.0% ± 6.1% of cases. The relative importance of extinction versus colonisation variables varied with species. Extinction variables were most important for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus), a mixture of extinction and colonisation variables was important for arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), and colonisation variables were most important for arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus) and round whitefish (Prosopium cylindraceum). 4. Ecological differences among species account for much of the difference in relative importance of colonisation versus extinction variables. In addition, stream piracy events have occurred over geologic time scales, which have resulted in lakes that are currently inaccessible but support relict fish populations. 5. Climate warming, currently occurring in the arctic, is likely to alter further the stream network, which could have dramatic effects on fish distributions by affecting access to isolated lakes or isolating lakes that are currently accessible.     

Diel variations in inorganic carbon and nitrogen uptake by phytoplankton in an arctic lake

Time—depth variations in inorganic carbon and nitrogenuptake by phytoplankton in Toolik Lake were examined over 36h using isotope tracer techniques. Rates of dissolved inorganiccarbon (DIC = CO₂ + + ) and maximum uptake were phased with the did high light/low light regime characteristic of the briefarctic summer with the amplitude of oscillation greater forDIC than for . Ammonium uptake was continuous at uptake-saturating concentrations. No conclusive evidencewas found for a diel periodicity in nitrogenous nutrient levelsor uptake of and ambient concentrations. A pronounced light—temperature effecton dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN = + ) uptake was evident at depth when rates of uptake were maximum. Depth-integrated daily C/N uptake ratios(mol) estimated as the mean of four consecutive 6 h incubationsranged from 1.8–6.4 under conditions of substrate saturationand from 6.0–16.1 at ambient levels of DIN. The efficacyof 24 h incubations to estimate accurately day-rates of DICand substrate-saturated DIN uptake was assessed by comparingestimates obtained from 24 h exposures to those approximatedby summing results from serial short-term incubations. Experimentsof 24 h duration accurately predicted day-rates of maximum uptake but underestimated daily DIC uptake by 13 7% ( SD). Day-length incubations introduced serious errors in the estimation of day-rates of maximum uptake, effecting an underestimation of 29 5%( SD). ¹Institute of Marine Science Contribution No. 538.     

Turnover of recently assimilated carbon in arctic bryophytes

Carbon (C) allocation and turnover in arctic bryophytes is largely unknown, but their response to climatic change has potentially significant impacts on arctic ecosystem C budgets. Using a combination of pulse-chase experiments and a newly developed model of C turnover in bryophytes, we show significant differences in C turnover between two contrasting arctic moss species (Polytrichum piliferum and Sphagnum fuscum). ¹³C abundance in moss tissues (measured up to 1 year) and respired CO₂ (traced over 5 days) were used to parameterise the bryophyte C model with four pools representing labile and structural C in photosynthetic and stem tissue. The model was optimised using an Ensemble Kalman Filter to ensure a focus on estimating the confidence intervals (CI) on model parameters and outputs. The ratio of aboveground NPP:GPP in Polytrichum piliferum was 23% (CI 9–35%), with an average turnover time of 1.7 days (CI 1.1–2.5 days). The aboveground NPP:GPP ratio in Sphagnum fuscum was 43% (CI 19–65%) with an average turnover time of 3.1 days (CI 1.6–6.1 days). These results are the first to show differences in C partitioning between arctic bryophyte species in situ and highlight the importance of modelling C dynamics of this group separately from vascular plants for a realistic representation of vegetation in arctic C models.     

Effects of habitat transitions on rainforest bird communities across an anthropogenic landscape mosaic

We compared bird community responses to the habitat transitions of rainforest‐to‐pasture conversion, consequent habitat fragmentation, and post‐agricultural regeneration, across a landscape mosaic of about 600 km² in the eastern Australian subtropics. Birds were surveyed in seven habitats: continuous mature rainforest; two size classes of mature rainforest fragment (4–21 ha and 1–3 ha); regrowth forest patches dominated by a non‐native tree (2–20 ha, 30–50 years old); two types of isolated mature trees in pasture; and treeless pasture, with six sites per habitat. We compared the avifauna among habitats and among sites, at the levels of species, functional guilds, and community‐wide. Community‐wide species richness and abundance of birds in pasture sites were about one‐fifth and one‐third, respectively, of their values in mature rainforest (irrespective of patch size). Many measured attributes changed progressively across a gradient of increased habitat simplification. Rainforest specialists became less common and less diverse with decreased habitat patch size and vegetation maturity. However, even rainforest fragments of 1–3 ha supported about half of these species. Forest generalist species were largely insensitive to patch size and successional stage. Few species reached their greatest abundance in either small rainforest fragments or regrowth. All pastures were dominated by bird species whose typical native habitats were grassland, wetland, and open eucalypt forest, while pasture trees modestly enhanced local bird communities. Overall, even small scattered patches of mature and regrowth forest contributed substantial bird diversity to local landscapes. Therefore, maximizing the aggregate rainforest area is a useful regional conservation strategy.     

Variation in demographic patterns and population structure of raccoons across an urban landscape

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are considered synanthropic, with high densities reported from urban landscapes. However, little information is available on population density and demography within the urban matrix. To better understand how urban land-use patterns influence raccoon density and demographic patterns, we sampled raccoons at multiple, replicated sites across an urban landscape. Density differed by land-use type (F_2,17 = 4.66, P = 0.027): urbanized sites, = 4.96 ± 2.64 raccoons/km², range = 1.25–10.00 raccoons/km²; urban open sites, = 14.84 ± 6.35 raccoons/km², range = 3.00–29.25 raccoons/km²; rural open sites, = 15.50 ± 4.66 raccoons/km², range = 13.00–20.25. Although we found no clear patterns in sex ratio, reproductive condition, or body condition, we observed differences in age structure among urban open, rural open, and urbanized sites. The most striking difference was the absence of older animals at urbanized sites and relatively low numbers of young individuals at urban open sites. Raccoons were the dominant mesocarnivore in open fragments, but less so in the urban matrix. Spatial variation in density across urban landscapes is likely influenced by site level differences in abundance of anthropogenic resources and differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, the association between changes in land-use and population age structure may have reflected different mortality sources across the landscape. Our results illustrate that wildlife species considered synanthropic may have complex relationships with urban landscapes. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Multitrophic effects of herbivore-induced plant volatiles in an evolutionary context

Herbivorous and carnivorous arthropods use plant volatiles when foraging for food. In response to herbivory, plants emit a blend that may be quantitatively and qualitatively different from the blend emitted when intact. This induced volatile blend alters the interactions of the plant with its environment. We review recent developments regarding the induction mechanism as well as the ecological consequences in a multitrophic and evolutionary context. It has been well established that carnivores (predators and parasitoids) are attracted by the volatiles induced by their herbivorous victims. This concerns an active plant response. In the case of attraction of predators, this is likely to result in a fitness benefit to the plant, because through consumption a predator removes the herbivores from the plant. However, the benefit to the plant is less clear when parasitoids are attracted, because parasitisation does usually not result in an instantaneous or in a complete termination of consumption by the herbivore. Recently, empirical evidence has been obtained that shows that the plant's response can increase plant fitness, in terms of seed production, due to a reduced consumption rate of parasitized herbivores. However, apart from a benefit from attracting carnivores, the induced volatiles can have a serious cost because there is an increasing number of studies that show that herbivores can be attracted. However, this does not necessarily result in settlement of the herbivores on the emitting plant. The presence of cues from herbivores and/or carnivores that indicate that the plant is a competitor- and/or enemy-dense space, may lead to an avoidance response. Thus, the benefit of emission of induced volatiles is likely to depend on the prevailing faunal composition. Whether plants can adjust their response and influence the emission of the induced volatiles, taking the prevalent environmental conditions into account, is an interesting question that needs to be addressed. The induced volatiles may also affect interactions of the emitting plant with its neighbours, e.g., through altered competitive ability or by the neighbour exploiting the emitted information.Major questions to be addressed in this research field comprise mechanistic aspects, such as the identification of the minimally effective blend of volatiles that explains the attraction of carnivores to herbivore-infested plants, and evolutionary aspects such as the fitness consequences of induced volatiles. The elucidation of mechanistic aspects is important for addressing ecological and evolutionary questions. For instance, an important tool to address ecological and evolutionary aspects would be to have plant pairs that differ in only a single trait. Such plants are likely to become available in the near future as a result of mechanistic studies on signal-transduction pathways and an increased interest in molecular genetics.     

Limnological characteristics of lakes located across arctic treeline in northern Russia

Limnological data (e.g., water chemistry, lakewater temperature, vegetation zone and degree of human impact) were collected from lakes spanning the Russian arctic treeline in three regions: on the Taimyr Peninsula and near the mouth of the Lena River, both in central arctic Siberia, and near the mouth of the Pechora River, western arctic Russia. Pearson correlation and canonical variates analyses revealed similar environmental gradients in all three regions. Variables expressing ionic composition of the water (i.e., cations, anions, dissolved inorganic carbon and conductivity) were highly intercorrelated, as were nutrients, chlorophyll a, particulate organic matter and metal (i.e., Fe and Mn) concentrations. Lakewater transparency was related to water colour (i.e., Fe, Mn and dissolved organic carbon) and productivity. Regional differences among the lakes were strong and appeared to reflect differences in geology, hydrology and human impact. For example, Na and Cl concentrations were related to proximity to the ocean in the Lena and Pechora River regions but not in the more inland Taimyr region. Extensive mining and smelting at Norilsk, on the Taimyr Peninsula, has apparently resulted in elevated major ion and metal concentrations in lakes closer to the city. Surface water temperatures, nutrients, and related variables were particularly useful for distinguishing lakes in different vegetation biomes. Forest lakes were typically warmer, with slightly elevated concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Lakes in the forest–tundra zone often had higher concentrations of particulate organic matter, Fe and Mn. Tundra lakes were characterized by low nutrient and DOC concentrations. These data will facilitate the development of models that predict the outcome of future climatic change on arctic and subarctic aquatic ecosystems, as well as provide baseline data for future limnological studies in these remote regions.     

Hawaiian waterbird movement across a developed landscape

A key component for biologists managing mobile species is understanding where and when a species occurs at different locations and scaling management to fit the spatial and temporal patterns of movement. We established an automated radio-telemetry tracking network to document multi-year movement in 2016–2018 of 3 endangered waterbirds among wetlands on Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi, USA: ʻalae ʻula or Hawaiian gallinule (gallinule; Gallinula galeata sandvicensis), ʻalae keʻokeʻo or Hawaiian coot (coot; Fulica alai), and aeʻo or Hawaiian stilt (stilt; Himantopus mexicanus knudseni), each with different ecological requirements. There were marked differences in the movement propensity of the species, with no movement among sites detected in gallinules, 31% of coots moving among wetlands, and very high levels of daily movement in stilts. A network analysis revealed strong evidence for fidelity among individual stilts to specific wetlands, indicating different groups of wetlands supported different birds. There was also strong evidence for patterns in daily and seasonal movement patterns of stilts. Our work indicates the importance of each wetland to the waterbirds they support, as each individual had strong fidelity to a single wetland. In addition, for Hawaiian coots and stilts, which were documented moving among multiple wetlands, a network of wetlands may be key for long-term persistence of these endangered species, and coordinated regional management of waterbirds as a shared resource could provide greater benefits to waterbirds than independent management of each wetland.     

Differences in carbon and nutrient fractions among arctic growth forms

Summary In a survey of 28 plant species of 6 major growth forms from Alaskan tundra, we found no consistent difference among growth forms in the chemical nature of stored reserves except for lichens and mosses (which stored C primarily as polysaccharides) and shrubs (which tended to store C more as sugars than as polysaccharides). Forbs and graminoids showed particularly great diversity in the chemical nature of stored reserves. In contrast, C, N, and P chemistry of leaves was strikingly similar among all species and growth forms. Concentrations of stored reserves of C, N, and P were highest and showed greatest seasonal fluctuations in forbs and graminoids but were relatively constant in evergreen shrubs. From this information, we draw three general conclusions: (1) the photosynthetic function of leaves strongly constrains leaf chemistry so that similar chemical composition is found in all species and growth forms: (2) the chemical nature of storage reserves is highly variable, both within and among growth forms; (3) the concentration and seasonal pattern of storage reserves are closely linked to growth-form and reflect growth-form differences in woodiness, phenology, and relative dependence upon concurrent uptake vs. storage in support of growth.     

Microbial responses to warming enhance soil carbon loss following translocation across a tropical forest elevation gradient

Tropical soils contain huge carbon stocks, which climate warming is projected to reduce by stimulating organic matter decomposition, creating a positive feedback that will promote further warming. Models predict that the loss of carbon from warming soils will be mediated by microbial physiology, but no empirical data are available on the response of soil carbon and microbial physiology to warming in tropical forests, which dominate the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here we show that warming caused a considerable loss of soil carbon that was enhanced by associated changes in microbial physiology. By translocating soils across a 3000 m elevation gradient in tropical forest, equivalent to a temperature change of ± 15 °C, we found that soil carbon declined over 5 years by 4% in response to each 1 °C increase in temperature. The total loss of carbon was related to its original quantity and lability, and was enhanced by changes in microbial physiology including increased microbial carbon‐use‐efficiency, shifts in community composition towards microbial taxa associated with warmer temperatures, and increased activity of hydrolytic enzymes. These findings suggest that microbial feedbacks will cause considerable loss of carbon from tropical forest soils in response to predicted climatic warming this century.     

Predicting the post-fire establishment and persistence of an invasive tree species across a complex landscape

The reintroduction of pre-European fire regimes has allowed the entry of many invasive plant species into fire-dependant ecosystems of North America. However, the environmental factors that favor the post-fire establishment of these species across complex landscapes are not well understood and the initial establishment of invasive species does not necessarily result in long-term persistence. To evaluate the post-fire establishment and persistence of disturbance-dependent invasive plants, we studied the invasion of Paulownia tomentosa (princess tree, an early-successional species introduced from Asia) across three burns in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Based upon classification tree analysis, the presence/absence of P. tomentosa 2 years after burning was most strongly related to the cover of residual vegetation, topographic shading, and moisture availability. Spatial application of classification tree models to repeated survey data showed that P. tomentosa established across a wide range of microsites 2 years after burning. However, predicted habitat for P. tomentosa decreased by 63% 4 years after fire and by 73% 6 years after fire. Following its initial widespread establishment, P. tomentosa only persisted on xeric and exposed topographic positions that experienced high intensity burning. However, the sites where it persisted include rare community types that contain two endangered plant species that depend upon fire for successful reproduction. The control of P. tomentosa on these ecologically important sites may require special attention from land managers.     

Modelling carbon balances of coastal arctic tundra under changing climate

Rising air temperatures are believed to be hastening heterotrophic respiration (R_h) in arctic tundra ecosystems, which could lead to substantial losses of soil carbon (C). In order to improve confidence in predicting the likelihood of such loss, the comprehensive ecosystem model ecosys was first tested with carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes measured over a tundra soil in a growth chamber under various temperatures and soil‐water contents (θ). The model was then tested with CO₂ and energy fluxes measured over a coastal arctic tundra near Barrow, Alaska, under a range of weather conditions during 1998–1999. A rise in growth chamber temperature from 7 to 15 °C caused large, but commensurate, rises in respiration and CO₂ fixation, and so no significant effect on net CO₂ exchange was modelled or measured. An increase in growth chamber θ from field capacity to saturation caused substantial reductions in respiration but not in CO₂ fixation, and so an increase in net CO₂ exchange was modelled and measured. Long daylengths over the coastal tundra at Barrow caused an almost continuous C sink to be modelled and measured during most of July (2–4 g C m^?2 d^?1), but shortening daylengths and declining air temperatures caused a C source to be modelled and measured by early September (～1 g C m^?2 d^?1). At an annual time scale, the coastal tundra was modelled to be a small C sink (4 g C m^?2 y^?1) during 1998 when average air temperatures were 4 °C above normal, and a larger C sink (16 g C m^?2 y^?1) during 1999 when air temperatures were close to long‐term normals. During 100 years under rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration (C_a), air temperature and precipitation driven by the IS92a emissions scenario, modelled R_h rose commensurately with net primary productivity (NPP) under both current and elevated rates of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, so that changes in soil C remained small. However, methane (CH₄) emissions were predicted to rise substantially in coastal tundra with IS92a‐driven climate change (from ～20 to ～40 g C m^?2 y^?1), causing a substantial increase in the emission of CO₂ equivalents. If the rate of temperature increase hypothesized in the IS92a emissions scenario had been raised by 50%, substantial losses of soil C (～1 kg C m^?2) would have been modelled after 100 years, including additional emissions of CH₄.