用西伯利亚落叶松年轮最大密度重建和布克赛尔5—8月份平均最高温度

利用采自和布克塞尔铁布克山二号沟的西伯利亚落叶松树轮样本,研制出树轮最大密度年表(MXD)和年轮宽度年表(TRW),分析了其年表特征和气候响应特点。结果表明,该样点的落叶松树轮最大密度年表与和布克塞尔气象站5-8月份平均温度和平均最高温度度均具有很好的正相关关系,最高单相关系数为0.660。用铁布克山二号沟的最大密度差值年表序列,可较好地重建和布克塞尔地区1795-2007年来春夏季平均最高温度距平,47 a重建值对实测值的解释方差达43.5%,且方程稳定。重建结果揭示,在和布克赛尔地区,20世纪平均最高温度距平要高于20世纪以前的平均最高温度距平,20世纪前中期平均最高温度距平出现了明显的上升,并且在重建的时段的末期,5-8月份平均最高温度距平表现出上升趋势。     

Temperature sensitivity of blue intensity,maximum latewood density,and ring width data of living black spruce trees in the eastern Canadian taiga

The blue intensity (BI) technique provides opportunities to obtain surrogates to tree-ring density for reconstructing summer temperatures in high-latitude regions. In this study, we compare latewood BI (LBI) and delta BI (DBI), with the conventional X-ray maximum latewood density (MXD) and tree-ring width (TRW) data using 178 living trees of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), one of the most dominant species of conifers in the Northern Hemisphere, from 17 sites across the eastern Canadian taiga. The regional LBI and DBI chronologies are highly correlated to that of MXD (Pearson’s r = 0.97 and 0.92, respectively), while DBI is also similar to TRW (Pearson’s r = 0.67). Both LBI and DBI exhibit stronger responses to the May–August temperatures than TRW over larger time and spatial scales. However, only DBI is comparable to MXD data from inter-annual to decadal timescales. Low-frequency components of LBI data are likely distorted by color biases even if no obvious discoloration is present, as well as by the potentially low measurement resolution, leading to an overall weaker temperature sensitivity compared to the MXD data. Resampling experiments suggest that a minimum replication of 10 trees is needed to retain ≥90 % of the optimal temperature signal for MXD, LBI, and DBI data, and a minimum of 20 trees is required for TRW data.     

A Pinus cembra L. tree-ring record for late spring to late summer temperature in the Rhaetian Alps,Italy

Ongoing climate change strongly affects high-elevation environments in the European Alps, influencing the cryosphere and the biosphere and causing widespread retreat of glaciers and changes in biomes. Nevertheless, high-elevation areas often lack long meteorological series, and global datasets cannot represent local variations well. Thus, proxy data, such as tree rings, provide information on past climatic variations from these remote sites. Although maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies provide better temperature information than those based on tree-ring width (TRW), MXD series from the European Alps are lacking. To derive high-quality temperature information for the Rhaetian Alps, Pinus cembra L. trees sampled at approximately 2000 m a.s.l. were used to build one MXD chronology spanning from 1647 to 2015. The MXD data were significantly and highly correlated with seasonal May-September mean temperatures. The MXD chronology showed a generally positive trend since the middle of the 19^th century, interrupted by short phases of climatic deterioration in the beginning of the 20^th century and in the 1970s, conforming with the temperature trends. Our results underline the potential for using Pinus cembra L. MXD to reconstruct mean temperature variations, especially during the onset and latter part of the growing season, providing additional information on parts of the growing season not inferred from TRW. Future studies on MXD for this species will increase the availability of temporal and spatial data, allowing detailed climate reconstructions.     

Comparing Scots pine tree-ring proxies and detrending methods among sites in Jämtland,west-central Scandinavia

Scots pine tree-ring width (TRW) data from Jämtland in the Central Scandinavian Mountains has been used to reconstruct summer temperatures back to 1630 BC. However, it was recently shown that this reconstruction was of limited spatial importance. In this paper, we aim to explain this limitation in the TRW data as a temperature proxy, as well as assess the temperature information from new maximum latewood density (MXD) data. Furthermore, the effect of two standardization methods is evaluated: regional curve standardization (RCS) and a more traditional standardization, termed “non-RCS” standardization. Three TRW and two MXD sites were analyzed. Our results showed that despite the proximity to the Norwegian Sea, the MXD data is a powerful temperature proxy. Difference among sites in TRW data, especially on decadal timescales, together with a lower temperature association, suggests that other factors, such as changes in the local climate regimes, weakens the temperature signal. In general the RCS method overestimates pine growth trends in the latter half of the twentieth century, a feature not seen when using “non-RCS” standardization. This is likely due to an age-bias of older trees in most recent parts of the tree-ring chronologies. This effect will have consequences when reconstructing climate with tree-ring data. To overcome this problem, all age-classes should be represented throughout a chronology. If this is not possible, the use of “non-RCS” standardization is recommended, although this method results in a loss of low-frequency variability.     

Diverse climate sensitivity of Mediterranean tree-ring width and density

Understanding long-term environmental controls on the formation of tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) is fundamental for evaluating parameter-specific growth characteristics and climate reconstruction skills. This is of particular interest for mid-latitudinal environments where future rates of climate change are expected to be most rapid. Here we present a network of 28 TRW and 21 MXD chronologies from living and relict conifers. Data cover an area from the Atlantic Ocean in the west to the Mediterranean Sea in the east and an altitudinal gradient from 1,000 to 2,500 m asl. Age trends, spatial autocorrelation functions, carry-over effects, variance changes, and climate responses were analyzed for the individual sites and two parameter-specific regional means. Variations in warm season (May–September) temperature mainly control MXD formation (r = 0.58 to 0.87 from inter-annual to decadal time-scales), whereas lower TRW sensitivity to temperature remains unstable over space and time.     

The temperature sensitivity along elevational gradients is more stable in maximum latewood density than tree-ring width

Tree ring-based temperature reconstructions are preferably derived from maximum latewood density (MXD) compared to tree-ring width (TRW). Although temperature signals in MXD are less dependent on site ecology, systematic analyses of the effects of elevation and slope aspect on ring formation are still lacking. Here, we assess the climate sensitivity of MXD and TRW chronologies from six larch (Larix decidua Mill.) sites across the Simplon valley in the southwestern Swiss Alps, representing elevations from 1400 to 2150 m asl on both north- and south-facing slopes. We find decreasing temperature signals with decreasing elevation in MXD and TRW, though correlation coefficients are generally higher for MXD and on the warmer and dryer south exposed slopes. While the greatest temperature signals are found for MJJA at highest elevations with r = 0.71 for MXD and r = 0.57 for TRW (both p < 0.05 and for the 1928–2009 common period), MXD still correlates significantly positive at the lowest elevation site that is ~750 m below the treeline. Our findings indicate the suitability of MXD over TRW for temperature reconstructions when using historical wood sources of unknown origin.     

Assessing non-linearity in European temperature-sensitive tree-ring data

We test the application of parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric calibration models for reconstructing summer (June–August) temperature from a set of tree-ring width and density data on the same dendro samples from 40 sites across Europe. By comparing the performance of the three calibration models on pairs” of tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) or maximum blue intensity (MXBI), we test whether a non-linear temperature response is more prevalent in TRW or MXD (MXBI) data, and whether it is associated with the temperature sensitivity and/or autocorrelation structure of the dendro parameters. We note that MXD (MXBI) data have a significantly stronger temperature response than TRW data as well as a lower autocorrelation that is more similar to that of the instrumental temperature data, whereas TRW exhibits a redder” variability continuum. This study shows that the use of non-parametric calibration models is more suitable for TRW data, while parametric calibration is sufficient for both MXD and MXBI data – that is, we show that TRW is by far the more non-linear proxy.     

芦芽山华北落叶松(Larix principis-rupprechtii)树轮宽度年表对气候因子的响应

在芦芽山地区采集3个不同海拔的华北落叶松(Larix principis-rupprechtii),在传统去趋势的基础上,采用"signal-free"方法对拟合曲线进行修正,避免了中等频率的气候信息引起的拟合偏差,最终建立3个不同海拔树轮宽度标准年表(STD)。同时以10a为界对上述年表进行滤波处理,得到3个低频年表。年表特征值表明,随着海拔升高,年轮平均轮宽变窄,敏感性和高频信息增强,低频信息减弱,这可能与逐渐恶劣的生境有关。中、低海拔年表的低频信息更一致,中、高海拔的高频信息更接近,而高、低海拔无论是标准年表还是高频、低频年表相似性均较差。树轮气候响应分析显示,低海拔STD年表与5月最低温负相关最为显著,STD和低频年表均与5、6月份土壤温度显著负相关,说明生境暖干,树木主要受生长季的干旱胁迫;中海拔STD年表与当年5月最高温正相关最为显著,STD和低频年表与土壤温度相关均不显著,说明生境逐渐变得冷湿,生长季的低温成为树木生长的限制因子;高海拔STD年表与气象要素相关不显著,低频年表与当年4月土壤温度正相关,说明高海拔最为冷湿,并有季节性冻土分布,生长季的土壤低温成为树木生长的限制因子。因此,全球变暖的趋势将更有利于高海拔树木的生长,而低海拔树木的干旱胁迫进一步加剧。     

Stationarity of climate-growth response is only marginally influenced by the soil moisture regime in Western Siberia

Stationary (time-stable) relationships between a tree-ring proxy and climatic drivers are a prerequisite for using tree rings as paleo-climatological archives, but non-stationarity has been detected worldwide. Here we use a classical, temperature-sensitive treeline site in Western Siberia to specifically test the influence of micro-site conditions (wet versus dry) on the stationarity of climate-growth relationships in three co-existing conifer species: Larix sibirica Ledeb., Picea obovata Ledeb., and Pinus sibirica DuTour. We test two commonly used tree-ring proxies, annual tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD), using moving windows and the bootstrapped transfer function stability test (BTFS). Summer temperature is the main driver of tree growth in all three species, but non-stationarities exist in all species and both tree-ring proxies. For TRW, we found stationarity only for larch from both micro-sites, while for MXD, we found stationarity for spruce from both micro-sites, and for pine from the wet micro-site. Micro-site variability did not seem to affect stationarity in any systematic way. We highlight the necessity to systematically test the influence of different methods of stationarity tests, since BTFS was more sensitive than moving-window analysis. Taken together, our results underscore the importance of testing the assumption of stationarity for diverse micro-sites, different species and proxies at all sites prior to any tree-ring based temperature reconstruction, since even within one site results can be drastically different.     

A lonely dot on the map: Exploring the climate signal in tree-ring density and stable isotopes of clanwilliam cedar,South Africa

Clanwilliam cedar (Widdringtonia cedarbergensis; WICE), a long-lived conifer with distinct tree rings in Cape Province, South Africa, has potential to provide a unique high-resolution climate proxy for southern Africa. However, the climate signal in WICE tree-ring width (TRW) is weak and the dendroclimatic potential of other WICE tree-ring parameters therefore needs to be explored. Here, we investigate the climatic signal in various tree-ring parameters, including TRW, Minimum Density (MND), Maximum Latewood Density (MXD), Maximum Latewood Blue Intensity (MXBI), and stable carbon and oxygen isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) measured in WICE samples collected in 1978. MND was negatively influenced by early spring (October-November) precipitation whereas TRW was positively influenced by spring November-December precipitation. MXD was negatively influenced by autumn (April-May) temperature whereas MXBI was not influenced by temperature. Both MXD and MXBI were negatively influenced by January-March and January-May precipitation respectively. We did not find a significant climate signal in either of the stable isotope time series, which were measured on a limited number of samples. WICE can live to be at least 356 years old and the current TRW chronology extends back to 1564 CE. The development of full-length chronologies of alternative tree-ring parameters, particularly MND, would allow for an annually resolved, multi-century spring precipitation reconstruction for this region in southern Africa, where vulnerability to future climate change is high.     

Tree ring width and wood density as the indicators of climatic factors and insect outbreaks affecting spruce growth

Tree ring width (TRW), maximum (MXD), mean (MED) and minimum (MID) wood density were investigated in samples from the vicinity of the Tuchola Forest Biosphere Reserve (Northern Poland) in an attempt to distinguish the relative importance of climate and insect attack on the growth of Norway spruce. Selected climate parameters were used for a multiple regression to predict tree-ring width during insect outbreaks. This also used AICc for model selection. Additionally, k-means clustering was then used to group the yearly data of TRW, MXD, MID and the data of insect outbreaks. The respective climate data and data on insect outbreaks during the years 1962–1996 revealed a strong influence of May precipitation on TRW and insect outbreaks on MID. Missing tree rings or narrow rings and lower MXD together with higher MID might indicate increased insect activity.     

Recent growth increase in endemic Juglans boliviana from the tropical Andes

The spatial coverage of tree-ring chronologies in tropical South America is low compared to the extratropics, particularly in remote regions. Tree-ring dating from such tropical sites is limited by the generally weak temperature seasonality, complex coloration, and indistinct anatomical morphology in some tree species. As a result, there is a need to complement traditional methods of dendrochronology with innovative and independent approaches. Here, we supplement traditional tree-ring methods via the use of radiocarbon analyses to detect partial missing rings and/or false rings, and wood anatomical techniques to precisely delineate tree-ring boundaries. In so doing we present and confirm the annual periodicity of the first tree-ring width (TRW) chronology spanning from 1814 to 2017 for Juglans boliviana (‘nogal’), a tree species growing in a mid-elevation tropical moist forest in northern Bolivia. We collected 25 core samples and 4 cross-sections from living and recently harvested canopy-dominant trees, respectively. The sampled trees were growing in the Madidi National Park and had a mean age of 115 years old, with certain trees growing for over 200 years. Comparison of (residual and standard) TRW chronologies to monthly climate variables shows significant negative relationships to prior year May-August maximum temperatures (r = −0.54, p < 0.05) and positive relationships to dry season May-October precipitation (r = 0.60, p < 0.05) before the current year growing season. Additionally, the radial growth of Juglans boliviana shows a significant positive trend since 1979. Our findings describe a new and promising tree species for dendrochronology due to its longevity and highlight interdisciplinary techniques that can be used to expand the current tree-ring network in Bolivia and the greater South American tropics.     

Tree-ring growth of Gmelin larch under contrasting local conditions in the north of Central Siberia

While the forest-tundra zone in Siberia, Russia has been dendroclimatologically well-studied in recent decades, much less emphasis has been given to a wide belt of northern taiga larch forests located to the south. In this study, climate and local site conditions are explored to trace their influence on radial growth of Gmelin larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.) trees developed on permafrost soils in the northern taiga. Three dendrochronological sites characterized by great differences in thermo-hydrological regime of soils were established along a short (ca. 100 m long) transect: on a river bank (RB), at riparian zone of a stream (RZ) and on a terrace (TER). Comparative analysis of the rate and year-to-year dynamics of tree radial growth among sites revealed considerable difference in both raw and standardized tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies obtained for the RZ site, characterized by shallow soil active layer depth and saturated soils. Results of dendroclimatic analysis indicated that tree-ring growth at all the sites is mostly defined by climatic conditions of a previous year and precipitation has stronger effect on TRW chronologies in comparison to the air temperatures. Remarkably, a great difference in the climatic response of TRW chronologies has been obtained for trees growing within a very short distance from each other. The positive relation of tree-ring growth with precipitation, and negative to temperature was observed in the dry site RB. In contrary, precipitation negatively and temperature positively influenced tree radial growth of larch at the water saturated RZ. Thus, a complicate response of northern Siberian larch forest productivity to the possible climate changes is expected due to great mosaic of site conditions and variability of environmental factors controlling tree-ring growth at different sites. Our study demonstrates the new possibilities for the future dendroclimatic research in the region, as various climatic parameters can be reconstructed from tree-ring chronologies obtained for different sites.     

Dendroclimatic signals in the pine and spruce chronologies in the Solovetsky Archipelago

Searching for a robust tree-ring parameter useful for paleoclimatic purposes is one of the most demanding topics in the modern paleoscience. Since Blue Intensity has already expressed itself in different geographical locations all over the world as a possible replacement for maximum density, close attention is paid to investigate features of the inferred signal. The Solovki Islands is a unique location in Northern Russia where two important factors that make this territory attractive for developing a long tree-ring chronology have been met: modern long-living trees and building activities using old trees that were started by monks in the middle of the 16th century. The main goal of the research is to develop pine and spruce chronologies based on tree-ring width (TRW) and delta Blue Intensity (dBI) and to assess the ability of these parameters to be used as climate predictors. As a result, 14 conifer chronologies from 7 sites (4 for pine and 3 for spruce) were developed. The composite pine and spruce chronologies span a period of 474 and 378 years each. Cross-correlation of dBI-based chronologies of both conifers is high (r = up to 0.71 while for TRW-based chronologies it is lower on average (−0.18 to 0.63). Intra-species correlation of TRW chronologies in some cases achieved even negative values (r = −0.18. Discrepancies found between TRW chronologies of pine and spruce could be explained by differences in climatic signals. Response function analysis with monthly temperatures revealed that growth of pine depends on the previous August, while spruce has a temporally stable and strong relation to June temperatures. Compared to TRW, dBI-based chronologies have a high correlation with summer temperatures (r = 0.64 and 0.66 for spruce and pine, respectively). Presented research points out the importance of the response function analysis suggesting that depending on goals of the study several tree-ring parameters could be used, e.g., tree-ring width of spruce responses to June temperatures, while dBI to the whole summer.     

First measurements of Blue intensity from Pinus peuce and Pinus heldreichii tree rings and potential for climate reconstructions

Climate changes, their regional patterns, origin, and prediction are currently one of the most important scientific challenges. Tree-rings are among the most widely used proxies for past climate variation. However tree-ring width (TRW) from certain tree species and regions often do not contain robust climate signal. Other parameters such as Maximum latewood density (MXD) of conifer tree rings are more sensitive to summer temperatures, but the measurements have high costs. A potential surrogate for MXD is blue intensity (BI), which is based on the measurements of high-resolution images of the wood. The method has been tested and applied for several species. However it has not been tested up to now for Pinus heldreichii Christ (PIHE) and Pinus peuce Griseb. (PIPE). Those species are with limited distribution on the Balkan Peninsula and due to their longevity (frequently more than 500 years with potential to more than 1000 years) may serve as one of the best proxies for past climate variation in SE Europe.We composed BI chronologies following standard procedures from PIHE and PIPE trees from subalpine locations in the Pirin Mts, Bulgaria. The correlation analysis with climate parameters revealed strong and significant positive correlations of PIHE BI (ΔBI and Latewood BI (LwBI) series) and summer temperatures. The highest were 0.74 (p < 0.05) with July-August average temperatures for the period 1933–1983. The correlation values of ΔBI remained higher than 0.6 for the whole period (1933–2014) and sub-periods both for average monthly and average maximum temperatures. LwBI values of the PIHE chronology had correlation coefficients above 0.52 (highest 0.64) with August and August-July temperatures. The PIPE BI chronologies were also positively correlated with summer temperatures, but showed lower values than PIHE with lower temporal stability. The most stable were the correlations with LwBI average August temperatures, which were above 0.52. Delta BI series displayed high correlations for the 1933–1983 period, but then decreased and this caused overall lower correlations with August temperatures. Our data shows that there is potential to develop long BI chronologies and proxy climate reconstructions from the studied species and in this way complement the knowledge of the past climate of SE Europe.     

Seasonal and synoptic climatic drivers of tree growth in the Bighorn Mountains,WY, USA (1654–1983 CE)

In the United States’ (US) Northern Rockies, synoptic pressure systems and atmospheric circulation drive interannual variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation. The radial growth of high-elevation trees in this semi-arid region captures this temperature and precipitation variability and provides long time series to contextualize instrumental-era variability in synoptic-scale climate patterns. Such variability in climate patterns can trigger extreme climate events, such as droughts, floods, and forest fires, which have a damaging impact on human and natural systems. We developed 11 tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies from multiple species and sites to investigate the seasonal climatic drivers of tree growth in the Bighorn Mountains, WY. A principal component analysis of the chronologies identified 54% of shared common variance (1894–2014). Tree growth (expressed by PC1) was driven by multiple seasonal climate variables: previous October and current July temperatures, as well as previous December and current April precipitation, had a positive influence on growth, whereas growth was limited by July precipitation. These seasonal growth-climate relationships corresponded to circulation patterns at higher atmospheric levels over the Bighorn Mountains. Tree growth was enhanced when the winter jet stream was in a northward position, which led to warmer winters, and when the spring jet stream was further south, which led to wetter springs. The second principal component, explaining 19% of the variance, clustered sites by elevation and was strongly related to summer temperature. We leverage this summer temperature signal in our TRW chronologies by combining it with an existing maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology in a nested approach. This allowed us to reconstruct Bighorn Mountains summer (June, July, and August) temperature (BMST) back to 1654, thus extending the instrumental temperature record by 250 years. Our BMST reconstruction explains 39–53% of the variance in regional summer temperature variability. The 1830s were the relatively coolest decade and the 1930s were the warmest decade over the reconstructed period (1654–1983 CE) – which excludes the most recent 3 decades. Our results contextualize recent drivers and trends of climate variability in the US Northern Rockies, which contributes to the information that managers of human and natural systems need in order to prepare for potential future variability.     

Testing for tree-ring divergence in the European Alps

Evidence for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature has been reported from multiple forests along the high northern latitudes. This alleged circumpolar phenomenon described the apparent inability of temperature-sensitive tree-ring width and density chronologies to parallel increasing instrumental temperature measurements since the mid-20th century. In addition to such low-frequency trend offset, the inability of formerly temperature-sensitive tree growth to reflect high-frequency temperature signals in a warming world is indicated at some boreal sites, mainly in Alaska, the Yukon and Siberia. Here, we refer to both of these findings as the ‘divergence problem’ (DP), with their causes and scale being debated. If DP is widespread and the result of climatic forcing, the overall reliability of tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions should be questioned. Testing for DP benefits from well-replicated tree-ring and instrumental data spanning from the 19th to the 21st century. Here, we present a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc. Tree-ring width chronologies from 40 larch and 24 spruce sites were selected based on their correlation with early (1864–1933) instrumental temperatures to assess their ability of tracking recent (1934–2003) temperature variations. After the tree-ring series of both species were detrended in a manner that allows low-frequency variations to be preserved and scaled against summer temperatures, no unusual late 20th century DP is found. Independent tree-ring width and density evidence for unprecedented late 20th century temperatures with respect to the past millennium further reinforces our results.     

Different climate response of three tree ring proxies of Pinus sylvestris from the Eastern Carpathians,Romania

The aim of this study was to compare the climatic responses of three tree rings proxies: tree ring width (TRW), maximum latewood density (MXD), and blue intensity (BI). For this study, 20 cores of Pinus sylvestris covering the period 1886–2015 were extracted from living non-damaged trees from the Eastern Carpathian Mountains (Romania). Each chronology was compared to monthly and daily climate data. All tree ring proxies had a stronger correlation with the daily climate data compared to monthly data. The highest correlation coefficient was obtained between the MXD chronology and daily maximum temperature over the period beginning with the end of July and ending in the middle of September (r = 0.64). The optimal intervals for the temperature signature were 01 Aug – 24 Sept for the MXD chronology, 05 Aug – 25 Aug for the BI chronology, and both 16 Nov of the previous year – 16 March of the current year and 15 Apr – 05 May for the TRW chronology. The results from our study indicate that MXD can be used as a proxy indicator for summer maximum temperature, while TRW can be used as a proxy indicator for just March maximum temperature. The weak and unstable relationship between BI and maximum temperature indicates that BI is not a good proxy indicator for climate reconstructions over the analysed region.     

不同树高处树轮密度变化特征及其对气候的响应

以伊犁南部山区雪岭云杉风倒木为对象,研究了1.3、5、10、15、20 m树高处树轮圆盘样品的最大密度、最小密度、早材平均密度、晚材平均密度4种树轮密度年表,结合当地气象观测资料进行相关分析,研究树干不同高度树轮密度对气候要素的响应特征。结果表明: 同一树高下4种密度参数在整体上表现出较高的相关性,其中10、15、20 m树高相对显著;不同树高处晚材平均密度的一致性相对较好;不同树高处树轮密度对气候要素的响应存在差异,15 m树高处最大密度、晚材平均密度对上年7—9月、当年5—9月平均气温具有较好的响应。因此,在1.3 m处采集雪岭云杉样本存在对气温响应估计偏低的可能。