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1.
    
Material flow analysis (MFA) is widely used to investigate flows and stocks of resources or pollutants in a defined system. Data availability to quantify material flows on a national or global level is often limited owing to data scarcity or lacking data. MFA input data are therefore considered inherently uncertain. In this work, an approach to characterize the uncertainty of MFA input data is presented and applied to a case study on plastics flows in major Austrian consumption sectors in the year 2010. The developed approach consists of data quality assessment as a basis for estimating the uncertainty of input data. Four different implementations of the approach with respect to the translation of indicator scores to uncertainty ranges (linear‐ vs. exponential‐type functions) and underlying probability distributions (normal vs. log‐normal) are examined. The case study results indicate that the way of deriving uncertainty estimates for material flows has a stronger effect on the uncertainty ranges of the resulting plastics flows than the assumptions about the underlying probability distributions. Because these uncertainty estimates originate from data quality evaluation as well as uncertainty characterization, it is crucial to use a well‐defined approach, building on several steps to ensure the consistent translation of the data quality underlying material flow calculations into their associated uncertainties. Although subjectivity is inherent in uncertainty assessment in MFA, the proposed approach is consistent and provides a comprehensive documentation of the choices underlying the uncertainty analysis, which is essential to interpret the results and use MFA as a decision support tool.  相似文献   

2.
    
Material Flow Analysis (MFA) is a useful method for modeling, understanding, and optimizing sociometabolic systems. Among others, MFAs can be distinguished by two general system properties: First, they differ in their complexity, which depends on system structure and size. Second, they differ in their inherent uncertainty, which arises from limited data quality. In this article, uncertainty and complexity in MFA are approached from a systems perspective and expressed as formally linked phenomena. MFAs are, in a graph‐theoretical sense, understood as networks. The uncertainty and complexity of these networks are computed by use of information measures from the field of theoretical ecology. The size of a system is formalized as a function of its number of flows. It defines the potential information content of an MFA system and holds as a reference against which complexity and uncertainty are gauged. Integrating data quality measures, the uncertainty of an MFA before and after balancing is determined. The actual information content of an MFA is measured by relating its uncertainty to its potential information content. The complexity of a system is expressed based on the configuration of each individual flow in relation to its neighboring flows. The proposed metrics enable different material flow systems to be compared to one another and the role of individual flows within a system to be assessed. They provide information useful for the design of MFAs and for the communication of MFA results. For exemplification, the regional MFAs of aluminum and plastics in Austria are analyzed in this article.  相似文献   

3.
    
Freight statistics are at the core of many studies in the field of industrial ecology because they depict the physical interdependencies of territories and allow links to be made worldwide between production and consumption. Recent studies have focused increasingly on subnational scales, often relying on domestic freight data. In this perspective, this article analyses the uncertainties of the French domestic road freight survey, road being by far the most common mode of transport in the country. Based on a statistical analysis of the survey, we propose a model to estimate the uncertainty of any given domestic road transport flow. We also assess uncertainty reduction when averaging the flows over several years, and obtain for instance a 30% reduction for a three‐year average. We then study the impact of the uncertainties on regional material flow studies such as the economy‐wide material flow analysis of the Bourgogne region. Overall the case studies advocate for a systematic assessment of freight uncertainties, as neither the disaggregation level nor the quantities traded are good enough predictors. This justifies the need for an easy‐to‐implement estimation model. Finally, basic comparison with the German and Swedish surveys tends to indicate that the main conclusions presented in this article are likely to be valid in other European countries.  相似文献   

4.
    
Modern environmental and sustainability policy that acknowledges the linkages between socioeconomic processes and environmental pressures and impacts, and designs policies to decouple economic activity from environmental pressures and impacts, requires a sophisticated and comprehensive knowledge base. The concept of industrial metabolism provides a sound conceptual base, and material flow accounting—including primary material inputs and outflows of waste and emissions—provides a well‐accepted operationalization. Studies presenting a comprehensive material flow account for a national economy are rare, especially for developing countries. Countries such as Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR or Laos) face dual objectives of improving the material standard of living of their people while managing natural resources sustainably and mitigating adverse environmental impacts from growing resource throughput. Our research fills a knowledge gap, presents a comprehensive account of material inputs and outflows of waste and emissions for the Lao PDR national economy, and applies the accounting approach for a low‐income economy in Asia. We present a material balance for the years 2000 and 2015. For this research, we used data from Lao PDR national statistics and the accounting guidelines of the European Statistical Office (Eurostat), which pioneered the use of material flow data as part of its official statistical reporting. We demonstrate the feasibility of the accounting approach and discuss the robustness of results using uncertainty analysis conducted with statistical approaches commonly used in the field of industrial ecology, including Gauss's law of error propagation and Monte Carlo simulation. We find that the fast‐changing scale and composition of Lao PDR material flows, waste, and emissions presents challenges to the existing policy capacity and will require investment into governance of changed patterns of material use, waste disposal, and emissions. We consider the data analysis sufficiently robust to inform such a change in policy direction.  相似文献   

5.
The article presents the results of a research project aimed at (1) examining the feasibility of material flow analysis (MFA) on a regional and urban scale in France, (2) selecting the most appropriate method, (3) identifying the available data, and (4) calculating the material balance for a specific case. Using the Eurostat method, the study was conducted for the year 2003 and for three regional levels: Paris, Paris and its suburbs, and the entire region. Applying the method on a local scale required two local indicators to be defined in order to take into account the impact of exported wastes on MFA: LEPO, local and exported flows to nature, and DMCcorr, a modified domestic material consumption (DMC) that excludes exported wastes (and imported ones if necessary). As the region extracts, produces, and transforms less material than the country as a whole, its direct material input (DMI) is lower than the national DMI. In all the areas, LEPO exceeds 50% of DMI; in contrast, recycling is very low. The multiscale approach reveals that urban metabolism is strongly impacted by density and the distribution of activities: the dense city center (Paris) exports all of its wastes to the other parts of the region and concentrates food consumption, whereas the agricultural and urban sprawl area consumes high levels of construction materials and fuel. This supports the use of MFA on an urban and regional scale as a basis for material flow management and dematerialization strategies and clearly reveals the important interactions between urban and regional planning and development, and material flows.  相似文献   

6.
    
The economic reform “??i M?i” in 1986 has rapidly increased the number of craft villages in Vietnam, especially in the Red River Delta (RRD) leading to environmental degradation. This article presents an assessment of environmental and resource issues of agro‐Food Processing Craft Villages (FPCVs) in RRD using a refined approach to material flow analysis focusing on consistent quantification of uncertainty with particular attention to secondary and empirical data that are often faced in material flow analyses in transition economies. Material flows of agro‐Food Processing including eight types of production were examined and linked to activities of private Households, Rice Cultivation, and Pig Farming in a model called Red River Delta. Materials investigated were Goods (i.e., total materials), organic carbon (org.C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). The findings reveal material cycles are almost entirely open, that is, the materials used in FPCVs do not recycle within the region. From ~10.5 million tons/year of imported Goods used for agro‐Food Processing, final products and utilized materials account for minor fractions (~5%, by weight). Conversely, the majority (88%) is directly discharged. Materials accumulated as stocks represent 1% of Goods (100,000 tons/year), 21% of org.C (~34,000 tons/year), 42% of N (~1,300 tons/year), and 57% of P (~300 tons/year), whose substance concentrations vastly exceed natural resilience capacities. Although agro‐Food Processing accounts for negligible material shares in Red River Delta, FPCVs pollution is severe at local levels due to the location of home‐based production. Several options for closing material loops at various system scales are recommended for environmental and resource management of FPCVs. The material flow analysis results provide a database that may be used as a decision support tool for production establishments in craft villages and relevant authorities in setting priorities on environmental planning and resource management. This article met the requirements for a gold – silver JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .  相似文献   

7.
This contribution presents the state of the art of economy‐wide material flow accounting. Starting from a brief recollection of the intellectual and policy history of this approach, we outline system definition, key methodological assumptions, and derived indicators. The next section makes an effort to establish data reliability and uncertainty for a number of existing multinational (European and global) material flow accounting (MFA) data compilations and discusses sources of inconsistencies and variations for some indicators and trends. The results show that the methodology has reached a certain maturity: Coefficients of variation between databases lie in the range of 10% to 20%, and correlations between databases across countries amount to an average R2 of 0.95. After discussing some of the research frontiers for further methodological development, we conclude that the material flow accounting framework and the data generated have reached a maturity that warrants material flow indicators to complement traditional economic and demographic information in providing a sound basis for discussing national and international policies for sustainable resource use.  相似文献   

8.
The United States is not only the world's largest economy, but it is also one of the world's largest consumers of natural resources. The country, which is inhabited by some 5% of the world's population, uses roughly one‐fifth of the global primary energy supply and 15% of all extracted materials. This article explores long‐term trends and patterns of material use in the United States. Based on a material flow account (MFA) that is fully consistent with current standards of economy‐wide MFAs and covers domestic extraction, imports, and exports of materials for a 135‐year period, we investigated the evolution of the U.S. industrial metabolism. This process was characterized by an 18‐fold increase in material consumption, a multiplication of material use per capita, and a shift from renewable biomass toward mineral and fossil resources. In spite of considerable improvements in material intensity, no dematerialization has happened so far; in contrast to other high‐income countries, material use has not stabilized since the 1970s, but has continued to grow. This article compares patterns and trends of material use in the United States with those in Japan and the United Kingdom and discusses the factors underlying the disproportionately high level of U.S. per capita resource consumption.  相似文献   

9.
    
Dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) provides information about material usage over time and consequent changes in material stocks and flows. In order to understand the effect of limited data quality and model assumptions on MFA results, the use of sensitivity analysis methods in dynamic MFA studies has been on the increase. So far, sensitivity analysis in dynamic MFA has been conducted by means of a one‐at‐a‐time method, which tests parameter perturbations individually and observes the outcomes on output. In contrast to that, variance‐based global sensitivity analysis decomposes the variance of the model output into fractions caused by the uncertainty or variability of input parameters. The present study investigates interaction and time‐delay effects of uncertain parameters on the output of an archetypal input‐driven dynamic material flow model using variance‐based global sensitivity analysis. The results show that determining the main (first‐order) effects of parameter variations is often sufficient in dynamic MFA because substantial effects attributed to the simultaneous variation of several parameters (higher‐order effects) do not appear for classical setups of dynamic material flow models. For models with time‐varying parameters, time‐delay effects of parameter variation on model outputs need to be considered, potentially boosting the computational cost of global sensitivity analysis. Finally, the implications of exploring the sensitivities of model outputs with respect to parameter variations in the archetypical model are used to derive model‐ and goal‐specific recommendations on choosing appropriate sensitivity analysis methods in dynamic MFA.  相似文献   

10.
This work introduces a new approach to integrating the discharges of industrial processes with macroscopic watershed systems. The key concept is that environmental quality models (such as material flow analysis) can be inverted and included in an optimization formulation that seeks to determine the maximum allowable target for the process discharges while meeting the overall environmental requirements of the watershed. Because of its holistic nature, this approach simultaneously considers the effects of the inputs and outputs to the watershed (e.g., agricultural, residential, wastewater treatment plants, industrial, and so on) and the various physical, chemical, and biological phenomena occurring within the watershed. An optimization formulation is developed to systematically represent the reverse problem formulation. To illustrate the effectiveness of this approach, a case study is solved to manage phosphorus in Bahr El‐Baqar drainage system leading to Lake Manzala in Egypt. The key environmental and economic aspects are addressed and used to screen plant location and discharges.  相似文献   

11.
    
This article deals with the economy‐wide material flows in the Czech Republic in 1990–2006. It presents in brief the overall trends of the material flow indicators in 1990–2002. The major part of the article is focused on the years 2002–2006, which immediately preceded and followed the accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union in 2004. It is shown that this accession had quite a significant impact on the volume and character of the material flows of the Czech Republic. The accession was beneficial from an economic point of view, as it allowed for an increased supply of materials needed for economic growth. Furthermore, it was accompanied by an improvement in the efficiency of material transformation into economic output. From an environmental and broader sustainability point of view, however, this accession brought about some controversial outcomes. There was a significant increase in the net export of environmental pressure, on one hand, and an increase in net additions to the physical stock of the economy, on the other. Although the former is controversial from the viewpoint of equity in sharing area and resources, the latter places an additional burden on future generations because all physical stocks will turn into waste and emissions at some point, when their life span expires.  相似文献   

12.
The notion of a (socio‐) metabolic transition has been used to describe fundamental changes in socioeconomic energy and material use during industrialization. During the last century, Japan developed from a largely agrarian economy to one of the world's leading industrial nations. It is one of the few industrial countries that has experienced prolonged dematerialization and recently has adopted a rigorous resource policy. This article investigates changes in Japan's metabolism during industrialization on the basis of a material flow account for the period from 1878 to 2005. It presents annual data for material extraction, trade, and domestic consumption by major material group and explores the relations among population growth, economic development, and material (and energy) use. During the observed period, the size of Japan's metabolism grew by a factor of 40, and the share of mineral and fossil materials in domestic material consumption (DMC) grew to more than 90%. Much of the growth in the Japanese metabolism was based on imported materials and occurred in only 20 years after World War II (WWII), when Japan rapidly built up large stocks of built infrastructure, developed heavy industry, and adopted patterns of mass production and consumption. The surge in material use came to an abrupt halt with the first oil crisis, however. Material use stabilized, and the economy eventually began to dematerialize. Although gross domestic product (GDP) grew much faster than material use, improvements in material intensity are a relatively recent phenomenon. Japan emerges as a role model for the metabolic transition but is also exceptional in many ways.  相似文献   

13.
    
This study looks into material flow trends in the Philippines from 1985 to 2010 by utilizing the methodology of economy‐wide material flow analysis. Using domestic data sources, this study presents disaggregated annual material flow trends in terms of four major material categories, namely: biomass; fossil energy carriers; ores and industrial minerals; and construction minerals. The results describe in detail the growth of material flows in a high‐density country at the onset of its development and reveal the shift of material consumption from dominance of renewable materials in 1985 to nonrenewable materials in 2010. IPAT analysis shows that the increase in material consumption was driven by population growth from 1985 to 1998 and by growth in affluence from 1999 to 2010. However, high inequalities amidst the growing economy suggest that a small group of wealthy people have influenced the acceleration of material consumption in the Philippines. The results of this research are intended to provide a thorough analysis of the processes occurring in Philippine economic growth in order to assist in tackling implications for the important issue of sustainable resource management.  相似文献   

14.
With the rapid growth of highway mileage and vehicles, the Chinese highway traffic system (HTS) has become one of the great resource consumers. This article attempts to evaluate the material metabolism of China's HTS during 2001–2005 using the approach of material flow analysis (MFA) and to explore possible measures to promote circular economy throughout HTS. We measured a set of indicators to illustrate the whole material metabolism of China's HTS. The results indicated that the direct material input (DMI) of China's HTS increased from 1181.26 million tonnes (Mt) in 2001 to 1,874.57 Mt in 2005, and about 80% of DMI was accumulated in the system as infrastructure and vehicles. The domestic processed output (DPO) increased by 59.0% from 2001 to 2005. Carbon dioxide and solid waste accounted for 80.5% and 10.4% of DPO, respectively. The increase of resource consumption and pollutant emissions kept pace with the growth of transportation turnover. All these suggest that China's HTS still followed an extensive linear developing pattern with large resource consumption and heavy pollution emissions during the study period, which brought great challenges to the resources and the environment. Therefore, it's high time for China to implement a circular economy throughout the HTS by instituting resource and energy savings, by reducing emissions in the field of infrastructure construction and maintenance, by reducing vehicles’ energy and materials consumption, and by recycling waste materials.  相似文献   

15.
    
It is vital to find reasons for differences in the results of environmental input‐output (EIO), physical input‐output (PIO), and hybrid input‐output (HIO) models for industrial and environmental policy analysis. Using EIO, PIO, and HIO models, China's industrial metabolism is calculated. Four reasons were found to account for differences in the results of analysis using EIO, PIO, and HIO models: the manner in which they deal with residential consumption, service sectors, and waste recycling, and the assumption of unique sector prices. The HIO model, which treats residential consumption as sectors of the intermediate delivery matrix, is preferred to the EIO and PIO models for analyzing industrial and environmental policies. Moreover, waste recycling in five sectors—agriculture; the manufacture of paper, printing, and articles for culture, education, and sports activities; the manufacture of nonmetallic mineral products; smelting and pressing of metals; and construction—should be comprehensively considered when using the HIO model to study problems related to these five sectors. Improvements in the EIO, PIO, and HIO models and future work are also discussed.  相似文献   

16.
Human activity has quadrupled the mobilization of phosphorus (P), a nonrenewable resource that is not fully recycled biologically or industrially. P is accumulated in both water and solid waste due to fertilizer application and industrial, agricultural, and animal P consumption. This paper characterizes the industrial flows, which, although smaller than the agricultural and animal flows, are an important phosphorus source contributing to the pollution of surface waters. We present the quantification of the network of flows as constrained by mass balances of the global annual metabolism of phosphorus, based on global consumption for 2004, all of which eventually ends up as waste and in the soil and water systems. We find that on a yearly basis, 18.9 million metric tons (MMT) of P is produced, of which close to 75% goes to fertilizer and the rest to industrial and others uses. Phosphoric acid is the precursor for many of the intermediate and end uses of phosphate compounds described in this study and accounts for almost 80% of all P consumed. Eventually, all of the P goes to waste: 18.5 MMT ends up in the soil as solid waste, and 1.32 MMT is emissions to air and water. Besides quantifying P flows through our economy, we also consider some possible measures that could be taken to increase the degree of recovery and optimization of this resource and others that are closely related, such as the recovery of sulfur from gypsum and wastewater (sludge), and fluorine from wet phosphoric acid production.  相似文献   

17.
    
Several authors have highlighted the potential risks of nanoparticles (NPs). Still, little is known about the magnitude of emissions of NPs from society. Here, the method of explorative particle flow analysis (PFA), a modification of the more well‐known substance flow analysis (SFA), is suggested. In explorative PFA, particle number instead of mass is used as flow and stock metric and explorative scenarios are used to account for potential technology diffusion and, consequently, potentially higher emissions. The method has been applied in a case study of the use phase of titanium dioxide (TiO2) NPs in paint, sunscreen and self‐cleaning cement. The results indicate that the current largest emissions of TiO2 NPs originate from the use of sunscreen. One scenario implies that, in the future, the largest flows and stocks of TiO2 NPs could be related to self‐cleaning cement. Gaps in current knowledge are identified and suggestions for future research are given.  相似文献   

18.
A dynamic substance‐flow model is developed to characterize the stocks and flows of cement utilized during the 20th century in the United States, using the generic cement life cycle as a systems boundary. The motivation for estimating historical inventories of cement stocks and flows is to provide accurate estimates of contemporary cement in‐use stocks in U.S. infrastructure and future discards to relevant stakeholders in U.S. infrastructure, such as the federal and state highway administrators, departments of transportation, public and private utilities, and the construction and cement industries. Such information will assist in planning future rehabilitation projects and better life cycle management of infrastructure systems. In the present policy environment of climate negotiations, estimates of in‐use cement infrastructure can provide insights about to what extent built environment can act as a carbon sink over its lifetime. The rate of addition of new stock, its composition, and the repair of existing stock are key determinants of infrastructure sustainability. Based upon a probability of failure approach, a dynamic stock and flow model was developed utilizing three statistical lifetime distributions—Weibull, gamma, and lognormal—for each cement end‐use. The model‐derived estimate of the “in‐use” cement stocks in the United States is in the range of 4.2 to 4.4 billion metric tons (gigatonnes, Gt). This indicates that 82% to 87% of cement utilized during the last century is still in use. On a per capita basis, this is equivalent to 14.3 to 15.0 tonnes of in‐use cement stock per person. The in‐use cement stock per capita has doubled over the last 50 years, although the rate of growth has slowed.  相似文献   

19.
Lifespan is an essential parameter for the accounting and analysis of material stocks and flows, one of the main research topics in industrial ecology. Lifespan is also important as a parameter that portrays the current and historical situation of industrial metabolism, which is an area of interest to industrial ecologists. In the present article, the available information from various reports on product lifespan was reviewed. Although we found a large number of data for many durables, the definition of lifespan in published articles varied, which limited our ability to compare reported values. We therefore first defined lifespan and then compared the international and historical data. We compiled more than 1,300 data sets from various sources and identified some differences among the types of goods and among regions. With the reviewed data noted in this article, we established a database, named LiVES (Lifespan Database for Vehicles, Equipment, and Structures), and will disclose it on the Internet to share the information.  相似文献   

20.
    
Dynamic material flow analysis enables the forecasting of secondary raw material potential for waste volumes in future periods, by assessing past, present, and future stocks and flows of materials in the anthroposphere. Analyses of waste streams of buildings stocks are uncertain with respect to data and model structure. Wood construction in Viennese buildings serve as a case study to compare different modeling approaches for determining end‐of‐life (EoL) wood and corresponding contaminant flows (lead, chlorine, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). A delayed input and a leaching stock modeling approach are used to determine wood stocks and flows from 1950 until 2100. Cross‐checking with independent estimates and sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate the results’ plausibility. In the situation of the given data in the present case study, the delay approach is a better choice for historical observations of EoL wood and for analyses at a substance level. It has some major drawbacks for future predictions at the goods level, though, as the durability of a large number of historical buildings with considerably higher wood content is not reflected in the model. The wood content parameter differs strongly for the building periods and has therefore the highest influence on the results. Based on this knowledge, general recommendations can be derived for analyses on waste flows of buildings at a goods and substance level.  相似文献   

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