Hotspots of Malaria Transmission in the Peruvian Amazon: Rapid Assessment through a Parasitological and Serological Survey

Background

With low and markedly seasonal malaria transmission, increasingly sensitive tools for better stratifying the risk of infection and targeting control interventions are needed. A cross-sectional survey to characterize the current malaria transmission patterns, identify hotspots, and detect recent changes using parasitological and serological measures was conducted in three sites of the Peruvian Amazon.

Material and Methods

After full census of the study population, 651 participants were interviewed, clinically examined and had a blood sample taken for the detection of malaria parasites (microscopy and PCR) and antibodies against P. vivax (PvMSP1₁₉, PvAMA1) and P. falciparum (PfGLURP, PfAMA1) antigens by ELISA. Risk factors for malaria infection (positive PCR) and malaria exposure (seropositivity) were assessed by multivariate survey logistic regression models. Age-specific seroprevalence was analyzed using a reversible catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood for generating seroconversion rates (SCR, λ). SaTScan was used to detect spatial clusters of serology-positive individuals within each site.

Results

The overall parasite prevalence by PCR was low, i.e. 3.9% for P. vivax and 6.7% for P. falciparum, while the seroprevalence was substantially higher, 33.6% for P. vivax and 22.0% for P. falciparum, with major differences between study sites. Age and location (site) were significantly associated with P. vivax exposure; while location, age and outdoor occupation were associated with P. falciparum exposure. P. falciparum seroprevalence curves showed a stable transmission throughout time, while for P. vivax transmission was better described by a model with two SCRs. The spatial analysis identified well-defined clusters of P. falciparum seropositive individuals in two sites, while it detected only a very small cluster of P. vivax exposure.

Conclusion

The use of a single parasitological and serological malaria survey has proven to be an efficient and accurate method to characterize the species specific heterogeneity in malaria transmission at micro-geographical level as well as to identify recent changes in transmission.     

Age-Specific Prevalence and a Possible Transmission Route for

The prevalence of infestation of the skulls of stoats with the parasitic nematode Skrjabingylus nasicola was previously described in a national survey by King and Moody (1982). Since then, more samples from Craigieburn Forest Park and from the Eglinton Valley, Fiordland, have been collected, and a method of determining the actual ages of adult stoats has been developed. The extended samples are here examined for a relationship between infestation and age, which could not previously be tested. Prevalence generally increases with age, significantly so at Craigieburn. Stoats which had lived through one or more beech (Nothofagus solandri:) mast years at Craigieburn were significantly more likely to be infested, when the effects of age were allowed for. The hypothesis is advanced that the paratenic host for S. nasicola in New Zealand is the feral house mouse, Mus musculus, which is more numerous after a heavy beech seed fall.     

Estimates of Lifetime Risk of Occupational Fatal Injury from Age-Specific Rates

The lifetime risk of fatal workplace injury is a critical issue in the evaluation of occupational hazards. Recently, Fosbroke, Kisner, and Myers (1997) described a metric for working lifetime risk (WLTR) to determine the probability that a worker will die due to a work-related fatal injury in a year over a certain number of years of employment. This quantity was defined assuming that the annual rate of fatal injuries will be the same each year during employment. Recognizing the fact that annual fatal injury rates differ with the age of the worker along with other factors, modification of the definition of working lifetime risk is derived. We obtain the estimates of the lifetime risk using age-categorized annual fatality rates and derive an estimate of the standard error of the WLTR estimator and a confidence interval for the WLTR. We illustrate these calculations by estimating the lifetime risk for work-related fatal injuries for workers in four high risk industries: agriculture-forestry-fishing, mining, construction, and transportation public utilities. The estimates are based on employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and an updated version of fatality data from the National Traumatic Occupational Fatalities surveillance system.     

Identifying Malaria Transmission Foci for Elimination Using Human Mobility Data

Humans move frequently and tend to carry parasites among areas with endemic malaria and into areas where local transmission is unsustainable. Human-mediated parasite mobility can thus sustain parasite populations in areas where they would otherwise be absent. Data describing human mobility and malaria epidemiology can help classify landscapes into parasite demographic sources and sinks, ecological concepts that have parallels in malaria control discussions of transmission foci. By linking transmission to parasite flow, it is possible to stratify landscapes for malaria control and elimination, as sources are disproportionately important to the regional persistence of malaria parasites. Here, we identify putative malaria sources and sinks for pre-elimination Namibia using malaria parasite rate (PR) maps and call data records from mobile phones, using a steady-state analysis of a malaria transmission model to infer where infections most likely occurred. We also examined how the landscape of transmission and burden changed from the pre-elimination setting by comparing the location and extent of predicted pre-elimination transmission foci with modeled incidence for 2009. This comparison suggests that while transmission was spatially focal pre-elimination, the spatial distribution of cases changed as burden declined. The changing spatial distribution of burden could be due to importation, with cases focused around importation hotspots, or due to heterogeneous application of elimination effort. While this framework is an important step towards understanding progressive changes in malaria distribution and the role of subnational transmission dynamics in a policy-relevant way, future work should account for international parasite movement, utilize real time surveillance data, and relax the steady state assumption required by the presented model.     

Evaluating the Performance of Malaria Genetics for Inferring Changes in Transmission Intensity Using Transmission Modeling

Substantial progress has been made globally to control malaria, however there is a growing need for innovative new tools to ensure continued progress. One approach is to harness genetic sequencing and accompanying methodological approaches as have been used in the control of other infectious diseases. However, to utilize these methodologies for malaria, we first need to extend the methods to capture the complex interactions between parasites, human and vector hosts, and environment, which all impact the level of genetic diversity and relatedness of malaria parasites. We develop an individual-based transmission model to simulate malaria parasite genetics parameterized using estimated relationships between complexity of infection and age from five regions in Uganda and Kenya. We predict that cotransmission and superinfection contribute equally to within-host parasite genetic diversity at 11.5% PCR prevalence, above which superinfections dominate. Finally, we characterize the predictive power of six metrics of parasite genetics for detecting changes in transmission intensity, before grouping them in an ensemble statistical model. The model predicted malaria prevalence with a mean absolute error of 0.055. Different assumptions about the availability of sample metadata were considered, with the most accurate predictions of malaria prevalence made when the clinical status and age of sampled individuals is known. Parasite genetics may provide a novel surveillance tool for estimating the prevalence of malaria in areas in which prevalence surveys are not feasible. However, the findings presented here reinforce the need for patient metadata to be recorded and made available within all future attempts to use parasite genetics for surveillance.     

Rapid Assessment of Lepidoptera Predation Rates in Neotropical Forest Fragments1

The mechanisms underlying responses of invertebrates to forest edges remain poorly understood. Here, we use an experimental approach to investigate the predation rates on butterflies in two neotropical forest fragments. Neither distance from forest edge nor degree of forest openness affected predation rates on artificial caterpillars. The mean predation rate of artificial caterpillars on Barro Colorado Island (1500 ha) was significantly higher than that on Peninsula Gigante (2600 ha) likely due to density‐dependent effects. Our study demonstrates the utility of artificial predation experiments for rapid assessment of relative lepidoptera predation rates in tropical forests.     

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Shifts on Malaria Transmission in the Sahel

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north–south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel—both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift–induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.     

Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach

Malaria is currently one of the world´s major health problems. About a half-million deaths are recorded every year. In Portugal, malaria cases were significantly high until the end of the 1950s but the disease was considered eliminated in 1973. In the past few years, endemic malaria cases have been recorded in some European countries. With the increasing human mobility from countries with endemic malaria to Portugal, there is concern about the resurgence of this disease in the country. Here, we model and map the risk of malaria transmission for mainland Portugal, considering 3 different scenarios of existing imported infections. This risk assessment resulted from entomological studies on An. atroparvus, the only known mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in the study area. We used the malariogenic potential (determined by receptivity, infectivity and vulnerability) applied over geospatial data sets to estimate spatial variation in malaria risk. The results suggest that the risk exists, and the hotspots are concentrated in the northeast region of the country and in the upper and lower Alentejo regions.     

Malaria Transmission and Fetal Growth

In view of the known relation between infection of the maternal circulation of the placenta with Plasmodium falciparum and impaired fetal growth a study was made of the effect on birth weights of a malaria eradication campaign in the British Solomon Islands. Mean birth weights rose substantially within months of starting antimalarial operations. The increases between 1969 and 1971 averaged 252 g in babies of primigravidae and 165 g in all babies. The proportion of babies with birth weights of less than 2,500 g fell by 8% overall and by 20% among babies of primigravidae. The adverse effect of malaria transmission on fetal growth was apparently reversible if transmission of infection in the community was interrupted up to as late as the third trimester of pregnancy. The beneficial effects of malaria eradication operations on infant survival, child development, and social attitudes in developing countries are discussed.     

A Rapid Murine Coma and Behavior Scale for Quantitative Assessment of Murine Cerebral Malaria

Background

Cerebral malaria (CM) is a neurological syndrome that includes coma and seizures following malaria parasite infection. The pathophysiology is not fully understood and cannot be accounted for by infection alone: patients still succumb to CM, even if the underlying parasite infection has resolved. To that effect, there is no known adjuvant therapy for CM. Current murine CM (MCM) models do not allow for rapid clinical identification of affected animals following infection. An animal model that more closely mimics the clinical features of human CM would be helpful in elucidating potential mechanisms of disease pathogenesis and evaluating new adjuvant therapies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A quantitative, rapid murine coma and behavior scale (RMCBS) comprised of 10 parameters was developed to assess MCM manifested in C57BL/6 mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA (PbA). Using this method a single mouse can be completely assessed within 3 minutes. The RMCBS enables the operator to follow the evolution of the clinical syndrome, validated here by correlations with intracerebral hemorrhages. It provides a tool by which subjects can be identified as symptomatic prior to the initiation of trial treatment.

Conclusions/Significance

Since the RMCBS enables an operator to rapidly follow the course of disease, label a subject as affected or not, and correlate the level of illness with neuropathologic injury, it can ultimately be used to guide the initiation of treatment after the onset of cerebral disease (thus emulating the situation in the field). The RMCBS is a tool by which an adjuvant therapy can be objectively assessed.     

Quantifying Transmission Investment in Malaria Parasites

Many microparasites infect new hosts with specialized life stages, requiring a subset of the parasite population to forgo proliferation and develop into transmission forms. Transmission stage production influences infectivity, host exploitation, and the impact of medical interventions like drug treatment. Predicting how parasites will respond to public health efforts on both epidemiological and evolutionary timescales requires understanding transmission strategies. These strategies can rarely be observed directly and must typically be inferred from infection dynamics. Using malaria as a case study, we test previously described methods for inferring transmission stage investment against simulated data generated with a model of within-host infection dynamics, where the true transmission investment is known. We show that existing methods are inadequate and potentially very misleading. The key difficulty lies in separating transmission stages produced by different generations of parasites. We develop a new approach that performs much better on simulated data. Applying this approach to real data from mice infected with a single Plasmodium chabaudi strain, we estimate that transmission investment varies from zero to 20%, with evidence for variable investment over time in some hosts, but not others. These patterns suggest that, even in experimental infections where host genetics and other environmental factors are controlled, parasites may exhibit remarkably different patterns of transmission investment.     

Rapid Response to Selection,Competitive Release and Increased Transmission Potential of Artesunate-Selected Plasmodium chabaudi Malaria Parasites

The evolution of drug resistance, a key challenge for our ability to treat and control infections, depends on two processes: de-novo resistance mutations, and the selection for and spread of resistant mutants within a population. Understanding the factors influencing the rates of these two processes is essential for maximizing the useful lifespan of drugs and, therefore, effective disease control. For malaria parasites, artemisinin-based drugs are the frontline weapons in the fight against disease, but reports from the field of slower parasite clearance rates during drug treatment are generating concern that the useful lifespan of these drugs may be limited. Whether slower clearance rates represent true resistance, and how this provides a selective advantage for parasites is uncertain. Here, we show that Plasmodium chabaudi malaria parasites selected for resistance to artesunate (an artemisinin derivative) through a step-wise increase in drug dose evolved slower clearance rates extremely rapidly. In single infections, these slower clearance rates, similar to those seen in the field, provided fitness advantages to the parasite through increased overall density, recrudescence after treatment and increased transmission potential. In mixed infections, removal of susceptible parasites by drug treatment led to substantial increases in the densities and transmission potential of resistant parasites (competitive release). Our results demonstrate the double-edged sword for resistance management: in our initial selection experiments, no parasites survived aggressive chemotherapy, but after selection, the fitness advantage for resistant parasites was greatest at high drug doses. Aggressive treatment of mixed infections resulted in resistant parasites dominating the pool of gametocytes, without providing additional health benefits to hosts. Slower clearance rates can evolve rapidly and can provide a strong fitness advantage during drug treatment in both single and mixed strain infections.     

Malaria Morbidity in High and Seasonal Malaria Transmission Area of Burkina Faso

Background

Malariometric parameters are often primary endpoints of efficacy trials of malaria vaccine candidates. This study aims to describe the epidemiology of malaria prior to the conduct of a series of drug and vaccine trials in a rural area of Burkina Faso.

Methods

Malaria incidence was prospectively evaluated over one year follow-up among two cohorts of children aged 0–5 years living in the Saponé health district. The parents of 1089 children comprising a passive case detection cohort were encouraged to seek care from the local health clinic at any time their child felt sick. Among this cohort, 555 children were randomly selected for inclusion in an active surveillance sub-cohort evaluated for clinical malaria during twice weekly home visits. Malaria prevalence was evaluated by cross-sectional survey during the low and high transmission seasons.

Results

Number of episodes per child ranged from 0 to 6 per year. Cumulative incidence was 67.4% in the passive and 86.2% in the active cohort and was highest among children 0–1 years. Clinical malaria prevalence was 9.8% in the low and 13.0% in the high season (p>0.05). Median days to first malaria episode ranged from 187 (95% CI 180–193) among children 0–1 years to 228 (95% CI 212, 242) among children 4–5 years. The alternative parasite thresholds for the malaria case definition that achieved optimal sensitivity and specificity (70–80%) were 3150 parasites/µl in the high and 1350 parasites/µl in the low season.

Conclusion

Clinical malaria burden was highest among the youngest age group children, who may represent the most appropriate target population for malaria vaccine candidate development. The pyrogenic threshold of parasitaemia varied markedly by season, suggesting a value for alternative parasitaemia levels in the malaria case defintion. Regional epidemiology of malaria described, Sapone area field centers are positioned for future conduct of malaria vaccine trials.     

Rapid Clinical Assessment to Facilitate the Triage of Adults with Falciparum Malaria,a Retrospective Analysis

Background

Most adults dying from falciparum malaria will die within 48 hours of their hospitalisation. An essential component of early supportive care is the rapid identification of patients at greatest risk. In resource-poor settings, where most patients with falciparum malaria are managed, decisions regarding patient care must frequently be made using clinical evaluation alone.

Methods

We retrospectively analysed 4 studies of 1801 adults with severe falciparum malaria to determine whether the presence of simple clinical findings might assist patient triage.

Results

If present on admission, shock, oligo-anuria, hypo- or hyperglycaemia, an increased respiratory rate, a decreased Glasgow Coma Score and an absence of fever were independently predictive of death. The variables were used to construct a simple clinical algorithm. When applied to the 1801 patients, this algorithm’s positive predictive value for survival to 48 hours was 99.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 97.8–99.9) and for survival to discharge 96.9% (95% CI 94.3–98.5). In the 712 patients receiving artesunate, the algorithm’s positive predictive value for survival to 48 hours was 100% (95% CI 97.3–100) and to discharge was 98.5% (95% CI 94.8–99.8).

Conclusions

Simple clinical findings are closely linked to the pathophysiology of severe falciparum malaria in adults. A basic algorithm employing these indices can facilitate the triage of patients in settings where intensive care services are limited. Patients classified as low-risk by this algorithm can be safely managed initially on a general ward whilst awaiting senior clinical review and laboratory data.     

Targeting Human Transmission Biology for Malaria Elimination

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide, despite decades of public health efforts. The recent commitment by many endemic countries to eliminate malaria marks a shift away from programs aimed at controlling disease burden towards one that emphasizes reducing transmission of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Gametocytes, the only developmental stage of malaria parasites able to infect mosquitoes, have remained understudied, as they occur in low numbers, do not cause disease, and are difficult to detect in vivo by conventional methods. Here, we review the transmission biology of P. falciparum gametocytes, featuring important recent discoveries of genes affecting parasite commitment to gametocyte formation, microvesicles enabling parasites to communicate with each other, and the anatomical site where immature gametocytes develop. We propose potential parasite targets for future intervention and highlight remaining knowledge gaps.     

Evolution of Plastic Transmission Strategies in Avian Malaria

Malaria parasites have been shown to adjust their life history traits to changing environmental conditions. Parasite relapses and recrudescences—marked increases in blood parasite numbers following a period when the parasite was either absent or present at very low levels in the blood, respectively—are expected to be part of such adaptive plastic strategies. Here, we first present a theoretical model that analyses the evolution of transmission strategies in fluctuating seasonal environments and we show that relapses may be adaptive if they are concomitant with the presence of mosquitoes in the vicinity of the host. We then experimentally test the hypothesis that Plasmodium parasites can respond to the presence of vectors. For this purpose, we repeatedly exposed birds infected by the avian malaria parasite Plasmodium relictum to the bites of uninfected females of its natural vector, the mosquito Culex pipiens, at three different stages of the infection: acute (∼34 days post infection), early chronic (∼122 dpi) and late chronic (∼291 dpi). We show that: (i) mosquito-exposed birds have significantly higher blood parasitaemia than control unexposed birds during the chronic stages of the infection and that (ii) this translates into significantly higher infection prevalence in the mosquito. Our results demonstrate the ability of Plasmodium relictum to maximize their transmission by adopting plastic life history strategies in response to the availability of insect vectors.     

Analysis of a Vector-Bias Model on Malaria Transmission

We incorporate a vector-bias term into a malaria-transmission model to account for the greater attractiveness of infectious humans to mosquitoes in terms of differing probabilities that a mosquito arriving at a human at random picks that human depending on whether he is infectious or susceptible. We prove that transcritical bifurcation occurs at the basic reproductive ratio equalling 1 by projecting the flow onto the extended centre manifold. We next study the dynamics of the system when incubation time of malaria parasites in mosquitoes is included, and find that the longer incubation time reduces the prevalence of malaria. Also, we incorporate a random movement of mosquitoes as a diffusion term and a chemically directed movement of mosquitoes to humans expressed in terms of sweat and body odour as a chemotaxis term to study the propagation of infected population to uninfected population. We find that a travelling wave occurs; its speed is calculated numerically and estimated for the lower bound analytically.