Fitness minimization and dynamic instability as a consequence of predator–prey coevolution

We analyse dynamic models of the coevolution of continuous traits that determine the capture rate of a prey species by a predator. The goal of the analysis is to determine conditions when the coevolutionary dynamics will be unstable and will generate population cycles. We use a simplified model of the evolutionary dynamics of quantitative traits in which the rate of change of the mean trait value is proportional to the rate of increase of individual fitness with trait value. Traits that increase ability in the predatory interaction are assumed to have negative effects on another component of fitness. We concentrate on the role of equilibrial fitness minima in producing cycles. In this case, the mean trait of a rapidly evolving species minimizes its fitness and it is chased around this equilibrium by adaptive evolution in the other species. Such cases appear to be most likely if the capture rate of prey by predators is maximal when predator and prey phenotypes match each other. They are possible, but less likely when traits in each species determine a one-dimensional axis of ability related to the interaction. Population dynamics often increase the range of parameter values for which cycles occur, relative to purely evolutionary models, although strong prey self-regulation may stabilize an evolutionarily unstable subsystem.     

Biodiversity as both a cause and consequence of resource availability: a study of reciprocal causality in a predator-prey system

1. One of the oldest questions in ecology is how species diversity in any given trophic level is related to the availability of essential resources that limit biomass (e.g. water, nutrients, light or prey). Researchers have tried to understand this relationship by focusing either on how diversity is influenced by the availability of resources, or alternatively, how resource abundance is influenced by species diversity. These contrasting perspectives have led to a seeming paradox '... is species diversity the cause or the consequence of resources that limit community biomass?' 2. Here we present results of an experiment that show it is possible for species diversity and resource density to exhibit reciprocal causal relationships in the same ecological system. Using a guild of ladybeetle predators and their aphid prey, we manipulated the number of predator species in field enclosures to examine how predator diversity impacts prey population size. At the same time, we manipulated the abundance of aphid prey in discrete habitat patches within each enclosure to determine how smaller-scale spatial variation in resource abundance affects the number of co-occurring predator species. 3. We found that the number of ladybeetle species added to enclosures had a significant impact on aphid population dynamics because interference competition among the predators reduced per capita rates of predation and, in turn, the overall efficiency of the predator guild. At the same time, spatial variation in aphid abundance among smaller habitat patches generated variation in the observed richness of ladybeetles because more species occurred in patches where predators aggregated in response to high aphid density. 4. The results of our experiment demonstrate that it is possible for species diversity to simultaneously be a cause and a consequence of resource density in the same ecological system, and they shed light on how this might occur for groups of mobile consumers that exhibit rapid responses to spatial and temporal variation in their prey.     

Modeling fish dynamics and effects of stress in a hydrologically pulsed ecosystem

Many wetlands undergo seasonal cycles in precipitation and water depth.This environmental seasonality is echoed in patterns of production of fishbiomass, which, in turn, influence the phenology of other components of thefood web, including wading birds. Human activities, such as drainage orother alterations of the hydrology, can exacerbate these natural cycles andresult in detrimental stresses on fish production and the higher trophic levels dependent on this production. In this paper we model theseasonal pattern of fish production in a freshwater marsh, with specialreference to the Everglades/Big Cypress region of southern Florida.The model illustrates the temporal pattern of production through theyear, which can result in very high densities of fish at the end of ahydroperiod (period of flooding), aswell as the importance of ponds and other deep depressions, both as refugia and sinks during dry periods. The model predicts that: (1) there is an effective threshold in the length of the hydroperiod that must beexceeded for high fish-population densities to be produced, (2) large,piscivorous fishes do not appear tohave a major impact on smaller fishes in the marsh habitat, and (3) therecovery of small-fish populations in the marsh following a major droughtmay require up to a year. The last of these results is relevant toassessing anthropogenic impacts on marsh production, as these effectsmay increase the severity and frequency of droughts.     

The forgotten prey of an iconic predator: a review of interactions between grey wolves Canis lupus and beavers Castor spp.

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Impacts of predator-mediated interactions along a climatic gradient on the population dynamics of an alpine bird

According to classic theory, species'' population dynamics and distributions are less influenced by species interactions under harsh climatic conditions compared to under more benign climatic conditions. In alpine and boreal ecosystems in Fennoscandia, the cyclic dynamics of rodents strongly affect many other species, including ground-nesting birds such as ptarmigan. According to the ‘alternative prey hypothesis’ (APH), the densities of ground-nesting birds and rodents are positively associated due to predator–prey dynamics and prey-switching. However, it remains unclear how the strength of these predator-mediated interactions change along a climatic harshness gradient in comparison with the effects of climatic variation. We built a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the sensitivity of ptarmigan populations to interannual variation in climate and rodent occurrence across Norway during 2007–2017. Ptarmigan abundance was positively linked with rodent occurrence, consistent with the APH. Moreover, we found that the link between ptarmigan abundance and rodent dynamics was strongest in colder regions. Our study highlights how species interactions play an important role in population dynamics of species at high latitudes and suggests that they can become even more important in the most climatically harsh regions.     

A newly discovered role of evolution in previously published consumer–resource dynamics

Consumer–resource interactions are fundamental components of ecological communities. Classic features of consumer–resource models are that temporal dynamics are often cyclic, with a ¼‐period lag between resource and consumer population peaks. However, there are few published empirical examples of this pattern. Here, we show that many published examples of consumer–resource cycling show instead patterns indicating eco‐evolutionary dynamics. When prey evolve along a trade‐off between defence and competitive ability, two‐species consumer–resource cycles become longer and antiphase (half‐period lag, so consumer maxima coincide with minima of the resource species). Using stringent criteria, we identified 21 two‐species consumer–resource time series, published between 1934 and 1997, suitable to investigate for eco‐evolutionary dynamics. We developed a statistical method to probe for a transition from classic to eco‐evolutionary cycles, and find evidence for eco‐evolutionary type cycles in about half of the studies. We show that rapid prey evolution is the most likely explanation for the observed patterns.     

The Nesting Site of a Piscivorous Cichlid Lepidiolamprologus profundicola as a Safety Zone for Juveniles of a Zooplanktivorous Cichlid Cyprichromis leptosoma in Lake Tanganyika

Juvenile Cyprichromis leptosoma, an endemic cichlid fish in Lake Tanganyika, form large schools near the nesting sites of the piscivorous cichlid Lepidiolamprologus profundicola. The female L. profundicola guarding the nesting site drove away piscivorous fish that approached the nest. After the disappearance of the guarding L. profundicola, the frequency of predatory dashes toward the school of juvenile C. leptosoma near the nesting site increased markedly. This suggests that juvenile C. leptosoma use the breeding territory of L. profundicola as a safety zone from their potential predators. The relationship between C. leptosoma and L. profundicola should be regarded as a type of commensalism.     

A triple threat: high population density,high foraging intensity and flexible habitat preferences explain high impact of feral cats on prey

Alien mammalian carnivores have contributed disproportionately to global loss of biodiversity. In Australia, predation by the feral cat and red fox is one of the most significant causes of the decline of native vertebrates. To discover why cats have greater impacts on prey than native predators, we compared the ecology of the feral cat to a marsupial counterpart, the spotted-tailed quoll. Individual prey are 20–200 times more likely to encounter feral cats, because of the combined effects of cats'' higher population densities, greater intensity of home-range use and broader habitat preferences. These characteristics also mean that the costs to the prey of adopting anti-predator behaviours against feral cats are likely to be much higher than adopting such behaviours in response to spotted-tailed quolls, due to the reliability and ubiquity of feral cat cues. These results help explain the devastating impacts of cats on wildlife in Australia and other parts of the world.     

Complex tactics in a dynamic large herbivore–carnivore spatiotemporal game

The spatiotemporal game between predators and prey is a fundamental process governing their distribution dynamics. Players may adopt different tactics as the associated costs and benefits change through time. Yet few studies have investigated the potentially simultaneous and dynamic nature of movement tactics used by both players. It is particularly unclear to what extent perceived predation risk mediates the fine‐scale distribution of large and dangerous prey, which are mostly driven by bottom–up, resource‐related processes. We built habitat use and movement models based on 10 years of monitoring GPS‐collared grey wolves Canis lupus and plains bison Bison bison bison in Prince Albert National Park, Canada, to investigate the predator–large prey game in a multi‐prey system. Bison did not underuse patches of high‐quality vegetation at any time during the seasonal cycle even though wolves were selectively patrolling these areas. Rather, in at least one season, bison engaged in complex tactics comprised of proactive responses to the long‐term distribution (risky places) and reactive responses to the immediate proximity (risky times) of their opponent. In summer–autumn, bison reduced the time spent in food‐rich patches as both the long‐term use and the immediate proximity of wolves increased. By demonstrating that wolf distribution triggers patch abandonment by bison, we provide a key element in support of the shell game hypothesis – where prey move constantly to avoid predators attempting to anticipate their location. In winter, a season of relatively high energetic stress, bison no longer abandoned food‐rich patches as predation risk increased, while no bison responses to wolves were observed in spring–summer. Our work demonstrates the highly dynamic and complex nature of the predator–large prey spatiotemporal game, a key trait‐mediated mechanism by which trophic interactions structure ecological communities.     

Population cycles in voles and lemmings: state of the science and future directions

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Why ratio dependence is (still) a bad model of predation

The history of the idea that predation rates are functions of the ratio of prey density to predator density, known as ratio dependence, is reviewed and updated. When the term was introduced in 1989, it was already known that higher predator abundance often reduced an individual predator's average intake rate of prey. However, the idea that this effect was a universally applicable inverse proportionality was new. That idea was widely criticized in many articles in the early 1990s, and many of these criticisms have never been addressed. Nevertheless, ratio dependence seems to be gaining in popularity and is the subject of a recent monograph by the originators. This article revisits the most important objections to this theory, and assesses to what extent they have been answered by the theory's proponents. In this process, several new objections are raised. The counterarguments begin with the lack of a plausible, generally applicable mechanism that could produce ratio dependence. They include the fact that ratio dependence is a special case of predator‐density effects, which, in turn, are only one of many non‐prey species effects that influence the consumption rate of a particular prey. The proclaimed simplicity advantage of ratio dependence is at best small and is outweighed by its disadvantages; it predicts biologically implausible phenomena, and cannot easily be extended to describe multi‐species systems, trait‐mediated interactions, coevolution, and a number of other important ecological phenomena. Any potential small simplicity advantage disappears with corrections to remove unrealistic low‐density dynamics caused by ratio dependence. The frequent occurrence of strong predator dependence does not make ratio dependence a better ‘default’ model of predation than prey dependence, and empirical studies of the full range of non‐prey species effects on the consumption rates of predators are needed.     

Variable prey development time suppresses predator–prey cycles and enhances stability

Although theoretical models have demonstrated that predator–prey population dynamics can depend critically on age (stage) structure and the duration and variability in development times of different life stages, experimental support for this theory is non‐existent. We conducted an experiment with a host–parasitoid system to test the prediction that increased variability in the development time of the vulnerable host stage can promote interaction stability. Host–parasitoid microcosms were subjected to two treatments: Normal and High variance in the duration of the vulnerable host stage. In control and Normal‐variance microcosms, hosts and parasitoids exhibited distinct population cycles. In contrast, insect abundances were 18–24% less variable in High‐ than Normal‐variance microcosms. More significantly, periodicity in host–parasitoid population dynamics disappeared in the High‐variance microcosms. Simulation models confirmed that stability in High‐variance microcosms was sufficient to prevent extinction. We conclude that developmental variability is critical to predator–prey population dynamics and could be exploited in pest‐management programs.     

Cost of autotomy drives ontogenetic switching of anti-predator mechanisms under developmental constraints in a land snail

Autotomy of body parts offers various prey animals immediate benefits of survival in compensation for considerable costs. I found that a land snail Satsuma caliginosa of populations coexisting with a snail-eating snake Pareas iwasakii survived the snake predation by autotomizing its foot, whereas those out of the snake range rarely survived. Regeneration of a lost foot completed in a few weeks but imposed a delay of shell growth. Imprints of autotomy were found in greater than 10 per cent of S. caliginosa in the snake range but in only less than 1 per cent out of it, simultaneously demonstrating intense predation by the snakes and high efficiency of autotomy for surviving snake predation in the wild. However, in experiments, mature S. caliginosa performed autotomy less frequently. Instead of the costly autotomy, they can use defensive denticles on the inside of their shell apertures. Owing to the constraints from the additive growth of shells, most pulmonate snails can produce these denticles only when they have fully grown up. Thus, this developmental constraint limits the availability of the modified aperture, resulting in ontogenetic switching of the alternative defences. This study illustrates how costs of adaptation operate in the evolution of life-history strategies under developmental constraints     

Phage and bacteria support mutual diversity in a narrowing staircase of coexistence

The competitive exclusion principle states that phage diversity M should not exceed bacterial diversity N. By analyzing the steady-state solutions of multistrain equations, we find a new constraint: the diversity N of bacteria living on the same resources is constrained to be M or M+1 in terms of the diversity of their phage predators. We quantify how the parameter space of coexistence exponentially decreases with diversity. For diversity to grow, an open or evolving ecosystem needs to climb a narrowing ‘diversity staircase'' by alternatingly adding new bacteria and phages. The unfolding coevolutionary arms race will typically favor high growth rate, but a phage that infects two bacterial strains differently can occasionally eliminate the fastest growing bacteria. This context-dependent fitness allows abrupt resetting of the ‘Red-Queen''s race'' and constrains the local diversity.     

The Chitty effect: a consequence of dynamic energy allocation in a fluctuating environment

An important biological feature of cyclic populations of voles and lemmings is phase-related changes in average body mass, with adults in high-density phases being 20-30% heavier than those in low-density phases of a cycle. This observation, called the "Chitty effect," is considered to be a ubiquitous feature of cyclic populations. It has been argued that understanding the Chitty effect is fundamental to unraveling the enigma of population cycles. However, there exists no agreement among biologists regarding the causes of the Chitty effect. Here, I propose a simple hypothesis to explain the Chitty effect, based on phase-related, dynamic allocation of energy between reproductive and somatic effort. The essence of the hypothesis is that: (1) reproduction is suppressed in animals born or raised in the later part of the increase phase by environmental factors, including social influences; (2) suppression of reproduction limits the amount of energy that is diverted for reproductive effort, and forces a disproportionately greater amount of surplus power (the energy left after the energetic costs of standard and active metabolism are met) to be allocated for somatic effort; (3) the surplus energy, above and beyond what is required for routine biological activities, will allow continuous growth and deposition of additional body mass, which causes an increase in body mass; and (4) animals grow to a larger size as a population enters the peak density phase, causing an increase in the average body mass. The Chitty effect is predicted to be most pronounced at the late increase or peak phase of a population cycle. Possible causes of reproductive suppression include direct or indirect influences of the environmental factors. The Chitty effect may be a consequence, not a cause, of population cycles in small mammals.     

Predation as a shaping force for the phenotypic and genotypic composition of planktonic bacteria

Predation is a major mortality factor of planktonic bacteria and an important shaping force for the phenotypic and taxonomic structure of bacterial communities. In this paper we: (1) summarise current knowledge on bacterial phenotypic properties which affect their vulnerability towards grazers, and (2) review experimental evidence demonstrating that this phenotypic heterogeneity results in shifts of bacterial community composition during enhanced protist grazing pressure. Size-structured interactions are especially important in planktonic systems and bacterial cell size influences the mortality rate and the type of grazer to which bacteria are most susceptible. When protists are the major bacterivores, both very small and large bacterial cells gain some size refuge. Recent studies have revealed that also various non-morphological traits such as motility, physicochemical surface characters and toxicity affect bacterial vulnerability and protist feeding success. These properties are effective at different stages during the feeding process of interception feeding flagellates (encounter, capture, ingestion, digestion). Grazing-resistant bacteria in natural communities can account for a substantial portion of the total bacterial biomass at least in more productive aquatic systems. In field and laboratory experiments it has been demonstrated that increased protozoan grazing results in shifts in the phenotypic and genotypic composition of the bacterial assemblage. The importance of this shaping force for the bacterial community structure depends, however, on the overall food web structure, especially on the composition of the metazooplankton. Whereas the structuring impact of bacterial grazers is well documented, relatively little is known about how grazing-mediated changes in bacterial communities influence microbially mediated processes and biogeochemically important transformations. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Towards a mechanistic understanding of temperature and enrichment effects on species interaction strength,omnivory and food‐web structure

Revealing the links between species functional traits, interaction strength and food‐web structure is of paramount importance for understanding and predicting the relationships between food‐web diversity and stability in a rapidly changing world. However, little is known about the interactive effects of environmental perturbations on individual species, trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning. Here, we combined modelling and laboratory experiments to investigate the effects of warming and enrichment on a terrestrial tritrophic system. We found that the food‐web structure is highly variable and switches between exploitative competition and omnivory depending on the effects of temperature and enrichment on foraging behaviour and species interaction strength. Our model contributes to identifying the mechanisms that explain how environmental effects cascade through the food web and influence its topology. We conclude that considering environmental factors and flexible food‐web structure is crucial to improve our ability to predict the impacts of global changes on ecosystem diversity and stability.     

Turbidity amplifies the non‐lethal effects of predation and affects the foraging success of characid fish shoals

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Predictive power of food web models based on body size decreases with trophic complexity

Food web models parameterised using body size show promise to predict trophic interaction strengths (IS) and abundance dynamics. However, this remains to be rigorously tested in food webs beyond simple trophic modules, where indirect and intraguild interactions could be important and driven by traits other than body size. We systematically varied predator body size, guild composition and richness in microcosm insect webs and compared experimental outcomes with predictions of IS from models with allometrically scaled parameters. Body size was a strong predictor of IS in simple modules (r² = 0.92), but with increasing complexity the predictive power decreased, with model IS being consistently overestimated. We quantify the strength of observed trophic interaction modifications, partition this into density‐mediated vs. behaviour‐mediated indirect effects and show that model shortcomings in predicting IS is related to the size of behaviour‐mediated effects. Our findings encourage development of dynamical food web models explicitly including and exploring indirect mechanisms.     

Differential population responses of native and alien rodents to an invasive predator,habitat alteration and plant masting

Invasive species and anthropogenic habitat alteration are major drivers of biodiversity loss. When multiple invasive species occupy different trophic levels, removing an invasive predator might cause unexpected outcomes owing to complex interactions among native and non-native prey. Moreover, external factors such as habitat alteration and resource availability can affect such dynamics. We hypothesized that native and non-native prey respond differently to an invasive predator, habitat alteration and bottom-up effects. To test the hypothesis, we used Bayesian state-space modelling to analyse 8-year data on the spatio-temporal patterns of two endemic rat species and the non-native black rat in response to the continual removal of the invasive small Indian mongoose on Amami Island, Japan. Despite low reproductive potentials, the endemic rats recovered better after mongoose removal than did the black rat. The endemic species appeared to be vulnerable to predation by mongooses, whose eradication increased the abundances of the endemic rats, but not of the black rat. Habitat alteration increased the black rat''s carrying capacity, but decreased those of the endemic species. We propose that spatio-temporal monitoring data from eradication programmes will clarify the underlying ecological impacts of land-use change and invasive species, and will be useful for future habitat management.