Plant-parasitic Nematode Distributions in an Alfalfa Field

A 7-ha alfalfa field (Medicago saliva L. cv Mesa Sirsa) was sampled systematically on a 6 x 6-m grid by removing individual cores (2.54 cm diam) to a depth of 45 cm from each of the 1,936 grid intersections. The soil was mainly coarse-textured with a fine-textured streak running centrally, north to south. Nematodes were extracted by a semiautomatic elutriator and sugar flotation-sieving technique. Five plant-parasitic species were consistently present: Meloidogyne arenaria, Pratylenchus minyus, Merlinius brevidens, Helicotylenchus digonicus, and Paratrichodorus minor. All species had a highly skewed nonnormal frequency distribution that departed significantly from randontness. Goodness-of-fit tests on the distribution of five populations in the entire field showed that three (Meloidogyne, Merlinius, and Helicotylenchus) were described by a negative binomial. When the samples were categorized by soil texture (coarse vs. fine-textured), all populations in the fine-textured areas, and three populations (Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus, and Merlinius) in the coarse areas, fitted a negative binomial distribution. Nearly all populations titted a negative binomial when the frequency distributions from randomly located one-meter-square areas were examined for each species.     

On a Model for Estimating the Parameter of the Human Reproductive Process

Attempt has been made in this paper to estimate certain parameters (data pertaining to which are either not available or easily reportable) of the human reproductive process as the period of postpartum ammenorrhoea (P.P.A.), number of foetal wastages in between live births etc., using a truncated negative binomial probability model. In view of the hypothesis that the probability of foetal wastages varies from mother to mother, the truncated negative binomial distribution has been compounded by weighing with the best prior Beta distribution of the parameter. Estimation has been made by successive approximation using the method of moments.     

基于负二项和零膨胀负二项回归模型的大兴安岭地区雷击火与气象因素的关系

雷击火的发生与气象因子之间存在着密切的关系。该文选用符合大兴安岭地区林火发生数据结构的负二项(negative binomial,NB)和零膨胀负二项(zero-inflated negative binomial,ZINB)两种模型对大兴安岭林区1980–2005年间雷击火的发生与气象因素间的关系进行建模分析,并与以往研究中所使用的最小二乘(OLS)回归方法相对比。使用SAS和R-Project统计软件进行模型拟合运算,计算得出模型各参数。结果表明,NB和ZINB模型对数据拟合较好,模型内各气象因子显著性水平较高,对雷击火发生次数均具有较好的预测能力。运用AIC和Vuong等检验方法,进一步比较了NB和ZINB模型对数据的拟合水平以及模型预测水平,结果表明ZINB模型无论在数据拟合还是模型预测上都要优于NB模型。提出了大兴安岭地区林火发生与气象因子关系的最优模型。     

Integrating nested spatial scales: implications for the coexistence of competitors on a patchy resource

1. Intraspecific aggregation at a single spatial scale can promote the coexistence of competitors. This paper demonstrates how this same mechanism can be applied to the many systems that are patchy at two scales, with patches nested within 'superpatches'.
2. Data are presented from a field study showing that insects living in rotting fruits have aggregated distributions in the fruits under a single tree, and that the mean density and degree of aggregation varies significantly among trees. Observations in this system motivate the following models.
3. A model of competition has been developed between two species which explicitly represents spatial variation at two scales. By integrating the probability distributions for each scale, the marginal distributions of competitors over all patches can be found and used to calculate coexistence criteria. This model assumes global movement of the competitors.
4. Although spatial variation at a single scale may not be sufficient for coexistence, the total variation over all patches can allow coexistence. Variation in mean densities among superpatches and variation in the degree of aggregation among superpatches both promote coexistence, but act in different ways.
5. A second model of competition between two species is described which incorporates the effects of limited movement among superpatches. Limited movement among superpatches generally promotes coexistence, and also leads to correlations among aggregation and the mean densities of competitors.     

白三叶草生长期西花蓟马的空间分布型变化

利用聚集度指标检验和比较频次法对白三叶草Trifolium repens生长期间西花蓟马Frankliniella occidentalis的空间分布型变化进行研究,结果如下：聚集度指标检验分析表明西花蓟马在白三叶草上的空间分布为聚集分布;利用频次拟合分析表明白三叶草上大部分生长期内其分布型为负二项分布,其聚集程度与虫口密度有关系,其空间分布不会因为一些人为干扰而改变。     

黑龙江省红松人工林枝条分布数量模拟

基于黑龙江省佳木斯市孟家岗林场的12块样地65株人工红松解析木的955个枝解析数据,以Poisson回归模型和负二项回归模型作为备选模型,构建了人工红松二级枝条数量分布模型,并采用AIC、Pseudo-R²、均方根误差(RMSE)和Vuong检验对模型的拟合优度进行比较.结果表明: 每轮一级枝条分布数量集中在3~5个,均值为4个,一级枝条分布数量与人工红松自身的枝条属性相关.一级标准枝上二级枝条分布的离散程度较大,利用全部子回归技术构建二级枝条分布数量模型,最终选择以负二项回归模型为基础的E(Y)=exp(β₀+β₁lnRDINC+β₂RDINC²+β₃HT/DBH+β₄CL+β₅DBH)作为二级枝条分布数量最优预测模型(β为参数;RDINC为相对着枝深度;HT为树高;DBH为胸径;CL为冠长).最优模型的Pseudo-R²为0.79,平均偏差接近于0,平均绝对偏差<7.对于所建立的模型,lnRDINC、CL和DBH的参数为正值,RDINC²和HT/DBH的为负值,随着RDINC增大,在树冠内二级枝条分布数量存在最大值.总的来说,所建立的人工红松二级枝条分布数量模型的预测精度为96.4%,可以很好地预估该研究区域人工红松二级枝条分布数量,为以后枝条的光合作用和生物量的研究提供了理论基础.     

大兴安岭塔河地区林火发生的优势预测模型选择

选取在经济学和社会科学领域广泛应用的零膨胀模型(zero-inflated models)和栅栏模型(Hurdle models)对大兴安岭地区林火发生进行模拟,应用赤池准则(AIC)、似然比检验(LR)和模型残差平方和(SSR)对两类共4个回归模型——零膨胀泊松模型(ZIP)、零膨胀负二项模型(ZINB)、栅栏泊松模型(PH)、栅栏负二项模型(NBH)进行拟合分析,最终选取适合此林火发生特性的预测模型.模型的AIC和SSR值表明,ZINB模型对当地林火数据的拟合度最高.运用LR检验对嵌套模型(ZINB与ZIP,NBH与PH)进行检验,结果显示: ZINB和NBH均优于各自的嵌入模型,说明负二项(NB)模型对数据结构中的过度离散现象可以很好地模拟和解释.根据研究区林火实际发生规律和两类不同模型的应用假设条件判断,零膨胀模型更适合塔河地区的林火特性.     

吉林蛟河阔叶红松林物种多度分布模型研究

以吉林蛟河阔叶红松林的木本植物为研究对象,将30hm²的样地面积划分为5m×5m,10m×10m,20m×20m,25m×25m的连续取样单元,在4个不同尺度下分别统计各物种在每个取样单元中的有无,得到每个物种在不同尺度下的取样单元数。利用随机分布模型和负二项分布模型分析物种的多度分布,对比预测多度与观测多度讨论两个模型的科学性与实用性。结果表明：对于阔叶红松林而言,负二项分布模型在所有研究尺度上的预测精度都要优于随机分布模型。随机分布和负二项分布的模型预测误差随着研究尺度的增大而增大,因此选取较小的取样单元可以切实提高物种多度的预测精度。利用随机分布和负二项分布模型对多度较小的物种进行预测的效果要优于多度较大的物种。负二项分布模型适合用来模拟阔叶红松林的物种多度分布格局,并且模型的拟合效果受取样单元大小影响。     

云南元阳梯田水稻田白背飞虱若虫空间分布型及理论抽样数

采用Taylor幂法扩散法和Iwao回归法分析了云南元阳哈尼梯田1400～2000m海拔16个哈尼族传统水稻品种田白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera(Horvath)1～3龄若虫的空间分布特征。结果表明,白背飞虱1～3龄若虫在不同海拔、不同水稻品种田均呈聚集分布中的负二项分布,其负二项分布的公共K值为3.53,聚集原因主要是由白背飞虱生物学特性和环境因素引起。Iwao直线回归方程拟合公式为m*=3.96+1.09m(R=0.97),Taylor幂拟合公式为lg(V)=0.28+1.34×lg(m)(R=0.85)。其中,在1400～1500、1501～1600、1601～1700、1701～1800、1801～1900和1901～2000m海拔梯田稻田中,白背飞虱若虫平均拥挤度分别为10.74±0.83、23.67±3.50、21.64±6.02、47.10±5.71、52.59±12.75、13.72±3.14,差异显著(F=5.77,P<0.01),其中在1701～1800和1801～1900m海拔稻田中白背飞虱平均拥挤度最高,表明在该海拔处白背飞虱在稻丛上分布较为集中,而在1400～1500和1901～2000m海拔稻田中平均拥挤度最低。根据空间分布型参数,建立了精度分别为0.1和0.2时的理论抽样数模型,分别为n=1905.43x+34.57,n=476x.36+8.64,该模型适用于不同虫口密度下的田间抽样。当白背飞虱虫口密度为5、10、20头/丛时,分别取样30、20和15个样方。     

Spatial modelling of individual-level parasite counts using the negative binomial distribution

We present a spatial model for the mean and correlation of highly dispersed count data, and apply it to individual-level counts of the nematode Wuchereria bancrofti, a parasite of humans which causes the disease lymphatic filariasis. Our model uses the negative binomial distribution, whose shape parameter is a convenient index of over-dispersion. Spatial association is quantified in terms of a characteristic length, which has an intuitive interpretation as the distance over which correlation decreases by half. Demographic surveillance and mapping enable us to include individual-level covariates such as age and sex. We discuss the distinctive features of our model and interpret the results in terms of the epidemiology of lymphatic filariasis and possible implications for control programmes.