Design of forest management planning DSS for wildfire risk reduction

Forest management planning is generally a complicated task. The amount of data, information and knowledge involved in the management process is often overwhelming. Decision support systems can help forest managers make well documented decisions concerning forest management planning. These systems include a wide variety of components, depending on the management goals of the forested land. Although an increased growth of decision support systems in specific domains of forest management planning exists, there is no special design model for the deployment of forest management planning. To this direction, this paper has the following objectives: Firstly, to propose a conceptual design model for developing goal-driven forest management planning decision support systems. Secondly, to apply the design model for a particular case of these systems, the wildfire risk reduction decision support systems. Thirdly, to present the deployment of a wildfire risk reduction decision support system as well as its results for a specific forest area.     

Public support for invasive alien species eradication programs: insights from the Netherlands

Over the last few decades, the number of invasive alien species (IAS) has increased worldwide. IAS can have negative impacts on biodiversity, human health, and the economy. For a number of reasons, IAS policies and management schemes that have been implemented have not been sufficient to tackle the problem. In this article, we focus on IAS eradication and a main obstacle to eradication, namely a lack of public support. By analyzing three specific cases of IAS eradication in the Netherlands (Indian house crow; Pallas's squirrel; and American bullfrog), we show how factors initially affecting public support for eradication interact with each other and influence the effectiveness of the measures that IAS eradication managers implement in order to achieve support for their eradication programs. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the manipulability of factors affecting public support. Finally, it reveals concrete measures that IAS managers can implement in order to gain public support. A lesson for IAS eradication managers is that they can effectively aim for support for eradication, even if low public support for eradication is to be expected in first instance. In addition, this article provides insight into practical measures that IAS eradication managers can implement.     

Heart teams in the Netherlands: From teamwork to data‑driven decision-making

For all patients with cardiovascular disease requiring an intervention, this is a major life event. The heart team concept is one of the most exciting and effective team modalities to ensure cost-effective application of invasive cardiovascular care. It optimises patient selection in a complex decision-making process and identifies risk/benefit ratios of different interventions. Informed consent and patient safety should be at the centre of these decisions. To deal with increased load of medical data in the future, artificial intelligence could enable objective and effective interpretation of medical imaging and decision support. This technical support is indispensable to meet current patient and societal demands for informed consent, shared decision-making, outcome improvement and safety. The heart team should be restructured with clear leadership, accountability, and process and outcome measurement of interventions. In this way, the heart team concept in the Netherlands will be ready for the future.

     

Scenario modeling for conservation management in the En Afeq Nature Reserve,Israel

Abstract. Conservation management has significant gaps between (1) collection and storage of biological data, (2) data analysis, and (3) application of results. In order to improve management decision-making, it is necessary to bridge these gaps. One of the most promising approaches uses computer-based decision support systems (DSS): interactive models of the system in question—for example, a nature reserve. One kind of DSS is scenario modeling: spatially-based models which (1) use expert opinion and data on vegetation, geology, hydrology, and management, (2) to project changes in landscape through time, (3) on the basis of changes in driving environmental factors. Scenario models are essentially graphic hypotheses, predicting changes in landscape with a specified change in driving factors, which can then be verified or falsified by monitoring. This paper presents an application of this approach to an Israeli nature reserve, the En Afeq Reserve in western Galilee. Our project tests the possibility of improving Israeli conservation management by using methods now standard for nature reserves in the Netherlands.     

The Influence of Between-Farm Distance and Farm Size on the Spread of Classical Swine Fever during the 1997–1998 Epidemic in The Netherlands

As the size of livestock farms in The Netherlands is on the increase for economic reasons, an important question is how disease introduction risks and risks of onward transmission scale with farm size (i.e. with the number of animals on the farm). Here we use the epidemic data of the 1997–1998 epidemic of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) Virus in The Netherlands to address this question for CSF risks. This dataset is one of the most powerful ones statistically as in this epidemic a total of 428 pig farms where infected, with the majority of farm sizes ranging between 27 and 1750 pigs, including piglets. We have extended the earlier models for the transmission risk as a function of between-farm distance, by adding two factors. These factors describe the effect of farm size on the susceptibility of a ‘receiving’ farm and on the infectivity of a ‘sending’ farm (or ‘source’ farm), respectively. Using the best-fitting model, we show that the size of a farm has a significant influence on both farm-level susceptibility and infectivity for CSF. Although larger farms are both more susceptible to CSF and, when infected, more infectious to other farms than smaller farms, the increase is less than linear. The higher the farm size, the smaller the effect of increments of farm size on the susceptibility and infectivity of a farm. Because of changes in the Dutch pig farming characteristics, a straightforward extrapolation of the observed farm size dependencies from 1997/1998 to present times would not be justified. However, based on our results one may expect that also for the current pig farming characteristics in The Netherlands, farm susceptibility and infectivity depend non-linearly on farm size, with some saturation effect for relatively large farm sizes.     

Data base management system for lymphatic filariasis--a neglected tropical disease

Background

Researchers working in the area of Public Health are being confronted with large volumes of data on various aspects of entomology and epidemiology. To obtain the relevant information out of these data requires particular database management system. In this paper, we have described about the usages of our developed database on lymphatic filariasis.

Methods

This database application is developed using Model View Controller (MVC) architecture, with MySQL as database and a web based interface. We have collected and incorporated the data on filariasis in the database from Karimnagar, Chittoor, East and West Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh, India.

Conclusion

The importance of this database is to store the collected data, retrieve the information and produce various combinational reports on filarial aspects which in turn will help the public health officials to understand the burden of disease in a particular locality. This information is likely to have an imperative role on decision making for effective control of filarial disease and integrated vector management operations.     

Expressed sequence tags (ESTs) from immune tissues of turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) challenged with pathogens

Background  

In the recent past, the introduction of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) followed by between-herd spread has given rise to a number of large epidemics in The Netherlands and Belgium. Both these countries are pork-exporting countries. Particularly important in these epidemics has been the occurrence of substantial "neighborhood transmission" from herd to herd in the presence of base-line control measures prescribed by EU legislation. Here we propose a calculation procedure to map out "high-risk areas" for local between-herd spread of CSFV as a tool to support decision making on prevention and control of CSFV outbreaks. In this procedure the identification of such areas is based on an estimated inter-herd distance dependent probability of neighborhood transmission or "local transmission". Using this distance-dependent probability, we derive a threshold value for the local density of herds. In areas with local herd density above threshold, local transmission alone can already lead to epidemic spread, whereas in below-threshold areas this is not the case. The first type of area is termed 'high-risk' for spread of CSFV, while the latter type is termed 'low-risk'.     

Malaria elimination: moving forward with spatial decision support systems

Operational challenges facing contemporary malaria elimination have distinct geospatial elements including the need for high-resolution location-based surveillance, targeted prevention and response interventions, and effective delivery of essential services at optimum levels of coverage. Although mapping and geographical reconnaissance (GR) has traditionally played an important role in supporting malaria control and eradication, its full potential as an applied health systems tool has not yet been fully realised. As accessibility to global positioning system (GPS), geographic information system (GIS) and mobile computing technology increases, the role of an integrated spatial decision support system (SDSS) framework for supporting the increased operational demands of malaria elimination requires further exploration, validation and application; particularly in the context of resource-poor settings.     

Science and Values Influencing Predator Control for Alaska Moose Management

ABSTRACT We encourage informed and transparent decision-making processes concerning the recently expanded programs in Alaska, USA, to reduce predation on moose (Alces alces). The decision whether to implement predator control ultimately concerns what society should value; therefore, policymakers, not objective biologists, play a leadership role. From a management and scientific standpoint, biological support for these predator-control programs requires convincing evidence that 1) predators kill substantial numbers of moose that would otherwise mostly live and be available for harvest, 2) low predation can facilitate reliably higher harvests of moose, 3) given less predation, habitats can sustain more moose and be protected from too many moose, and 4) sustainable populations of Alaska's brown bears (Ursus arctos), black bears (Ursus americanus), and wolves (Canis lupus) will exist in and out of control areas. We reviewed 10 moose mortality studies, 36 case histories, 10 manipulative studies, 15 moose nutrition studies, and 3 recent successful uses of nutrition-based management to harvest excess female moose. Results of these studies support application of long-term, substantial predator control for increasing yield of moose in these simple systems where moose are a primary prey of 3 effective predators. We found no substantive, contradictory results in these systems. However, to identify and administer feasible moose population objectives, recently established moose nutritional indices must be monitored, and regulatory bodies must accept nutrition-based management. In addition, the efficacy of techniques to reduce bear predation requires further study. Predicting precise results of predator control on subsequent harvest of moose will continue to be problematic because of a diversity of changing interactions among biological, environmental, and practical factors. In Alaska, the governor has the prerogative to influence regulations on predator control by appointing members to the Board of Game. At least annually, the Board of Game hears a wide spectrum of public opinions opposing and favoring predator control. We summarized these opinions as well as the societal and cultural values and expectations that are often the primary basis for debates. Advocates on both sides of the debate suggest they hold the higher conservation ethic, and both sides provide biased science. We recommend a more constructive and credible dialogue that focuses openly on values rather than on biased science and fabricated conspiracies. To be credible and to add substance in this divisive political arena, biologists must be well informed and provide complete information in an unbiased and respectful manner without exaggeration.     

Eradication of scrapie with selective breeding: are we nearly there?

Background  

Following EU decision 2003/100/EC Member States have recently implemented sheep breeding programmes to reduce the prevalence of sheep with TSE susceptible prion genotypes. The present paper investigates the progress of the breeding programme in the Netherlands. The PrP genotype frequencies were monitored through time using two sets of random samples: one set covers the years 2005 to 2008 and is taken from national surveillance programme; the other is taken from 168 random sheep farms in 2007. The data reveal that although the level of compliance to the breeding programme has been high, the frequency of susceptible genotypes varies substantially between farms. The 168 sheep farms are a subset of 689 farms participating in a postal survey inquiring about management and breeding strategies. This survey aimed to identify how much these strategies varied between farms, in order to inform assessment of the expected future progress towards eradication of classical scrapie.     

临床决策支持知识库研究

目的 运用知识管理的理念和方法,探讨切合实际应用的临床决策支持知识库概念模型,使医院能够通过知识管理提升其核心竞争力。方法 收集国内外相关资料,系统化研究及分析具有人工智能的临床决策支持知识库的框架。结果 实施医院知识管理的关键就是必须建立一个动态的,并具有自我学习能力的临床决策支持知识库,该知识库不仅需要通过医院信息系统收集传统的医学知识,而且需要建立用于临床指南等的标准医学知识收集的引擎和隐性知识转化模型,并嵌入智能化工具,通过知识库的自我学习功能,保证其动态更新和智能化的临床决策支持能力。结论 医院知识库创建过程实质也是医院价值的创造过程,智能化的临床决策支持知识库开发不仅涉及知识的收集和处理, 还包括知识的表达,人工智能技术的嵌入和各种规则、条件及分类方法等的应用,有待进一步研究。     

反向遗传学技术在猪瘟病毒研究中的应用

猪瘟目前在许多国家流行并对养猪业造成巨大损失。虽然常规疫苗(如中国猪瘟兔化弱毒疫苗,即C株)在猪瘟防控中发挥巨大作用,但近年来在猪瘟防控中出现的新情况,如非典型感染、持续性感染及免疫失败等;同时目前世界上许多国家正开展的猪瘟扑灭计划使得弱毒疫苗的应用受到很大限制。因此,加强猪瘟病毒在致病机理、传播机制等方面的研究以及加快新型猪瘟疫苗的开发是当务之急。近年来,反向遗传学技术的发展为猪瘟病毒基因功能研究和疫苗制备方面开辟了新思路。以下回顾了反向遗传操作技术在猪瘟病毒基因功能研究与标记疫苗株构建方面的研究进展,同时提出了该领域目前面临的问题,并对其未来发展方向进行了展望。     

Assessment of the Chad guinea worm surveillance information system: A pivotal foundation for eradication

BackgroundIn the absence of a vaccine or pharmacological treatment, prevention and control of Guinea worm disease is dependent on timely identification and containment of cases to interrupt transmission. The Chad Guinea Worm Eradication Program (CGWEP) surveillance system detects and monitors Guinea worm disease in both humans and animals. Although Guinea worm cases in humans has declined, the discovery of canine infections in dogs in Chad has posed a significant challenge to eradication efforts. A foundational information system that supports the surveillance activities with modern data management practices is needed to support continued program efficacy.MethodsWe sought to assess the current CGWEP surveillance and information system to identify gaps and redundancies and propose system improvements. We reviewed documentation, consulted with subject matter experts and stakeholders, inventoried datasets to map data elements and information flow, and mapped data management processes. We used the Information Value Cycle (IVC) and Data-Information System-Context (DISC) frameworks to help understand the information generated and identify gaps.ResultsFindings from this study identified areas for improvement, including the need for consolidation of forms that capture the same demographic variables, which could be accomplished with an electronic data capture system. Further, the mental models (conceptual frameworks) IVC and DISC highlighted the need for more detailed, standardized workflows specifically related to information management.ConclusionsBased on these findings, we proposed a four-phased roadmap for centralizing data systems and transitioning to an electronic data capture system. These included: development of a data governance plan, transition to electronic data entry and centralized data storage, transition to a relational database, and cloud-based integration. The method and outcome of this assessment could be used by other neglected tropical disease programs looking to transition to modern electronic data capture systems.     

Manipulating,managing and rehabilitating mangrove-dominated wetlands along Florida’s east coast (USA): balancing mosquito control and ecological values

In Florida, mangrove-dominated wetlands have been manipulated and managed largely for control of mosquitoes or to make way for human development since the late 1800s. More recently, many wetlands have been rehabilitated as their contributions to estuarine ecosystems became apparent and techniques that restored valuable contributions without compromising control of mosquitoes became available. This paper documents the history of manipulations largely used to control mosquito production in wetlands on the east coast of Florida, which have included ditching, filling, and impounding. It describes the management of these environmentally sensitive habitats since World War II and approximately 40 years of effort to rehabilitate these systems and improve their management. Improvements have been accomplished via adaptive management, science-based decision making and engagement of diverse groups of resource managers and stakeholders. Interagency efforts to provide balanced management of these wetlands are discussed, and work is presented to demonstrate the outcomes from rehabilitating impoundments in the Indian River Lagoon. These strategies for management and rehabilitation should provide guidance for restoring and conserving critical ecosystem services delivered by mangrove-dominated wetlands elsewhere, including survival in the face of future environmental changes.

     

Comparison of Approaches for Developing Distributions for Carcinogenic Slope Factors

In recent years, risk assessors have increasingly been moving away from deterministic risk assessment approaches and are applying probabilistic approaches that incorporate distributions of possible values for each input parameter. This paper reviews several approaches that are being used or that could potentially be used to develop distributions for carcinogenic slope factors (CSFs). Based on the primary tool or framework that is applied, these approaches have been divided into the following three categories: the statistical framework, the decision analysis framework, and the biological framework. Work that has been done on each approach is summarized, and the aspects of variability and uncertainty that are incorporated into each approach are examined. The implications of the resulting distributional information for calculating risk estimates or risk-based concentrations is explored. The approaches differ in their stage of development, the degree to which they diverge from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) current practice in establishing CSF values, their flexibility to accommodate varying data sets or theories of carcinogenicity, and their complexity of application. In some cases, wide ranges of potential potency estimates are indicated by these approaches. Such findings suggest widely divergent risk assessment implications and the need for additional evaluation of the goals of developing CSF distributions for use in risk assessment applications and the types of information that should be reflected in such distributions. Some combination of the features offered by these approaches may best support risk assessment and risk management decisions.     

The Role of Decision Support System (DSS) in Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The potential role of DSS in CVD prevention remains unclear as only a few studies report on patient outcomes for cardiovascular disease.

Methods and Results

A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and observational studies was done using Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, PubMed, Amed, CINAHL, Web of Science, Scopus databases; reference lists of relevant studies to 30 July 2011; and email contact with experts. The primary outcome was prevention of cardiovascular disorders (myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary heart disease, peripheral vascular disorders and heart failure) and management of hypertension owing to decision support systems, clinical decision supports systems, computerized decision support systems, clinical decision making tools and medical decision making (interventions). From 4116 references ten studies met our inclusion criteria (including 16,312 participants). Five papers reported outcomes on blood pressure management, one paper on heart failure, two papers each on stroke, and coronary heart disease. The pooled estimate for CDSS versus control group differences in SBP (mm of Hg) was - 0.99 (95% CI −3.02 to 1.04 mm of Hg; I² = 0; p = 0.851).

Conclusions

DSS show an insignificant benefit in the management and control of hypertension (insignificant reduction of SBP). The paucity of well-designed studies on patient related outcomes is a major hindrance that restricts interpretation for evaluating the role of DSS in secondary prevention. Future studies on DSS should (1) evaluate both physician performance and patient outcome measures (2) integrate into the routine clinical workflow with a provision for decision support at the point of care.     

MANAGEMENT,CONSERVATION AND RESEARCH OF INTERNATIONALLY SHARED WATERCOURSES IN SOUTIIERN AFRICA—NAMIBIAN EXPERIENCE WITH THE OKAVANGO RIVER AND RIVERS OF THE EASTERN CAPRIVI

Summary

Although the emphasis of the recent National Rivers Research Initiative (now the Research Programme for the Management of Rivers) in South Africa was on river research in that country, the reality is that in southern Africa many watercourses are shared by more than one country. Therefore a central issue in integrated river basin management and development should be the recognition of the principle of international joint planning, conservation, monitoring and research.

Co-operation and a better understanding of shared waters would prevent deleterious impacts, not only in the country where they occur, but also in those downstream. With this in mind, since the early 1980s Namibia has worked on joint cross-border projects in efforts to manage and conserve her shared water bodies. These include joint river gauging exercises, biological control of Saivinia molesta in the eastern Caprivi region and, more recently, the application of a biological monitoring technique, the South African Scoring System version 4, to north-eastern perennial rivers.

The formation of the Joint Permanent Water Commission between Botswana and Namibia enabled the Departments of Water Affairs of both countries to work together on their shared rivers. The establishment of the Permanent Okavango River Basin Water Commission between Angola, Botswana and Namibia in 1994 improved this co-operation even further. Namibia and its' counterparts are thus committed to sharing information, co-ordinating research and monitoring activities and to undertaking detailed studies to improve their knowledge of these shared systems.

Such cross-border co-operation is vital for the survival of shared river systems not only as ecological entities in their own right, but also as sources of water, power and the other resources they provide, both directly and indirectly, to the human and wildlife populations that they support.