Plant–pollinator population dynamics

We formulate and analyze a multi-generation population dynamics model for pollinators’ mutualism with plants. The centerpiece of our model is an analytical expression for population-level plant–pollinator interactions extrapolated from a model of individual-level flowers and bees interactions. We also show that this analytical expression can be productively approximated by the Beddington–DeAngelis formula—a function used to model trophic interactions in mathematical ecology.     

Dispersal, colored environmental noise, and spatial synchrony in population dynamics: analyzing a discrete host–parasitoid population model

Spatial synchrony is common, and its influences and causes have attracted the interest of ecologists. Spatially correlated environmental noise, dispersal, and trophic interactions have been considered as the causes of spatial synchrony. In this study, we developed a spatially structured population model, which is described by coupled-map lattices. Our recent investigation showed that trophic correlation of environmental noise was another important factor that affects spatial synchrony. As a supplement, we considered the influence of the color of the environmental noise on the spatial synchrony in this study. The noise color refers to the temporal correlation in the time series data of the noise, and is expressed as the degree of (first-order) autocorrelation for autoregressive noise. Patterns of spatial synchrony were considered for stable, periodic (quasi-periodic), and chaotic population dynamics. Numerical simulations verified that the color of the environmental noise is another mechanism that causes spatial synchrony. Generally, the effect of the color of the noise on the synchrony is dependent on the type of dynamics (stable, cyclic, chaotic) present in the population. For cyclic dynamics, simulation results clearly demonstrate that reddened noise has higher synchrony than white noise. The importance of our research is that it enriches the theory of potential causes of spatial synchrony.     

Evolutionary and population dynamics of host–parasitoid interactions

The role of evolutionary dynamics in understanding host–parasitoid interactions is interlinked with the population dynamics of these interactions. Here, we address the problems in coupling evolutionary and population dynamics of host–parasitoid interactions. We review previous theoretical and empirical studies and show that evolution can alter the ecological dynamics of a host–parasitoid interaction. Whether evolution stabilizes or destabilizes the interaction depends on the direction of evolutionary changes, which are affected by ecological, physiological, and genetic details of the insect biology. We examine the effect of life history correlations on population persistence and stability, embedding two types, one of which is competitively inferior but superior in encapsulation (for parasitoid, virulence), in a Nicholson–Bailey model with intraspecific resource competition for host. If a trade-off exists between intraspecific competitive ability and encapsulation (or virulence, as a countermeasure) in both the host and parasitoid, the trade-off or even positive correlation in the parasitoid is less influential to ecological stability than the trade-off in the host. We comment on the bearing this work has on the broader issues of understanding host–parasitoid interactions, including long-term biological control. Received: November 10, 1998 / Accepted: January 18, 1999     

Observations on the population dynamics and behavior of wild chimpanzees at Bossou,Guinea, in 1979–1980

A small population of wild chimpanzees was studied at Bossou, Guinea, for 80 days from December 1979 to March 1980 in its natural habitat. Since the beginning of the previous study in November 1976, the population decreased from 21 to 19 animals due to the disappearance of five members and three births. Three out of four adult and adolescent males disappeared, but no adult and adolescent female changed membership during the 39 months. The high social cohesion of this group and related behavior patterns changed little between the studies in spite of the disappearance of dominant and other males. In the moving range of the group, 127 mature oil-palm trees were examined; the base of 39 were used for palm-nut cracking by chimpanzees. The selection of cracking sites is discussed. A possible sign of leaf-sponging for drinking water from the hollow of the tree was found. The leaf-clipping display in which frustration or mild aggression is manifested by breaking stiff leaves with the mouth was observed throughout both study periods. A juvenile male chimpanzee was seen to catch a tree-pangolin which was later eaten by an adult female but other group members took little interest in the meat. It is clear that hunting and meateating are not habitual but accidental among the chimpanzees of Bossou.     

The Burden of Influenza and RSV among Inpatients and Outpatients in Rural Western Kenya, 2009–2012

Background

In Kenya, detailed data on the age-specific burden of influenza and RSV are essential to inform use of limited vaccination and treatment resources.

Methods

We analyzed surveillance data from August 2009 to July 2012 for hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) at two health facilities in western Kenya to estimate the burden of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Incidence rates were estimated by dividing the number of cases with laboratory-confirmed virus infections by the mid-year population. Rates were adjusted for healthcare-seeking behavior, and to account for patients who met the SARI/ILI case definitions but were not tested.

Results

The average annual incidence of influenza-associated SARI hospitalization per 1,000 persons was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8–3.9) among children <5 years and 0.3 (95% CI 0.2–0.4) among persons ≥5 years; for RSV-associated SARI hospitalization, it was 5.2 (95% CI 4.0–6.8) among children <5 years and 0.1 (95% CI 0.0–0.2) among persons ≥5 years. The incidence of influenza-associated medically-attended ILI per 1,000 was 24.0 (95% CI 16.6–34.7) among children <5 years and 3.8 (95% CI 2.6–5.7) among persons ≥5 years. The incidence of RSV-associated medically-attended ILI was 24.6 (95% CI 17.0–35.4) among children <5 years and 0.8 (95% CI 0.3–1.9) among persons ≥5 years.

Conclusions

Influenza and RSV both exact an important burden in children. This highlights the possible value of influenza vaccines, and future RSV vaccines, for Kenyan children.     

Partial recovery of the population of Corncrakes Crex crex in Britain, 1993–2004

Capsule Singing male Corncrakes increased more than two-fold over the study period.

Aim To provide updated counts of the number and distribution of singing male Corncrakes in Britain and describe the implementation of schemes in which land management was modified to benefit Corncrakes.

Methods Annual surveys of singing Corncrakes in the core of the range in Britain were undertaken between 1993 and 2004 and the total population of the species throughout Britain was assessed in 2003. Annual information on the extent and location of the various conservation management schemes was obtained from the authorities that administer them.

Results Following a long-term decline, the count of Corncrakes in the core of the species' British range increased in ten of the 11 years since 1993. A survey of the core of the range in 2004 located 1040 singing males, a 2.3-fold increase on the 446 singing males located in the same area in 1993. A full survey of Britain and the Isle of Man in 2003 located 832 singing males in 81 10-km National Grid squares. This compares with 589 birds in 93 squares in the last full survey in 1998, and 480 birds in 83 squares in 1993. During 1993–2003, more than 70% of Corncrakes in the core area occurred in 1-km National Grid squares in which conservation schemes were implemented. For males in squares with some conservation management, the average area of managed land to which each bird potentially had exclusive access was about 5 hectares. About half of the tall grass present in 1-km squares occupied by Corncrakes was included in schemes intended to modify mowing or grazing to reduce losses of nests and chicks.

Conclusion There has been a partial recovery of the population of Corncrakes in Britain since 1993, reversing a decline that began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. However, the geographical range of the species, measured as occupied 10-km grid squares, has not increased. The recovery occurred during a period in which a significant area of land, to which the majority of Corncrakes had access, was entered into conservation management schemes intended to benefit the species. Estimated changes in breeding productivity likely to be associated with changes in grass-mowing management on the observed scale were approximately sufficient to account for the observed change in population trend.     

Radiotherapy facilities,equipment, and staffing in Poland: 2005–2011

Background and purpose

To evaluate the current status of radiotherapy facilities, staffing, and equipment, treatment and patients in Poland for the years 2005–2011 following implementation of the National Cancer Programme.

Methods

A survey was sent to the radiotherapy centres in Poland to collect data on available equipment, staffing, and treatments in the years 2005–2011.

Results

In 2011, 76,000 patients were treated with radiotherapy at 32 centres vs. 63,000 patients at 23 centres in 2005. Number of patients increased by 21%. In 2011, there were 453 radiation oncologists – specialists (1 in 168 patients), 325 medical physicists (1 in 215 patients), and 883 radiotherapy technicians (1 in 86 patients) vs. 320, 188, and 652, respectively, in 2005. The number of linear accelerators increased by 60%, from 70 units in 2005 to 112 in 2011. The current linac/patient ratio in Poland is 1 linac per 678 patients. Waiting times from diagnosis to the start of treatment has decreased.

Conclusion

Compared to 2005, there are more treatment facilities, more and better equipment (linacs), and more cancer care specialists. There are still large differences between the 16 Polish provinces in terms of equipment availability and ease of access to treatment. However, radiotherapy services in Poland have improved dramatically since the year 2005.     

Linking the coevolutionary and population dynamics of host–parasitoid interactions

The interplay between coevolutionary and population or community dynamics is currently the focus of much empirical and theoretical consideration. Here, we develop a simulation model to study the coevolutionary and population dynamics of a hypothetical host–parasitoid interaction. In the model, host resistance and parasitoid virulence are allowed to coevolve. We investigate how trade-offs associated with these traits modify the system's coevolutionary and population dynamics. The most important influence on these dynamics comes from the incorporation of density-dependent costs of resistance ability. We find three main outcomes. First, if the costs of resistance are high, then one or both of the players go extinct. Second, when the costs of resistance are intermediate to low, cycling population and coevolutionary dynamics are found, with slower evolutionary changes observed when the costs of virulence are also low. Third, when the costs associated with resistance and virulence are both high, the hosts trade-off resistance against fecundity and invest little in resistance. However, the parasitoids continue to invest in virulence, leading to stable host and parasitoid population sizes. These results support the hypothesis that costs associated with resistance and virulence will maintain the heritable variation in these traits found in natural populations and that the nature of these trade-offs will greatly influence the population dynamics of the interacting species. Received: December 20, 1999 / Accepted: July 17, 2000     

Plant–animal interactions in seagrass beds: ongoing and future challenges for understanding population and community dynamics

Seagrass beds are some of the most productive parts of coastal ecosystems, hosting a wide variety of associated fauna. This paper reviews recent studies of animal–plant interactions in seagrass beds, focusing particularly on studies conducted in Japan and Thailand. Although the positive effect of seagrass habitat structure on animals has been widely acknowledged, the magnitude of this effect varies greatly among studies. A comparative study on epifaunal communities and a manipulative experiment using an infaunal bivalve revealed that behavioral and life-history traits of component species and their interactions influence the observed variation. Some recent studies have challenged the previously accepted view that direct herbivory on seagrasses is rare, and has a minor effect on the seagrass community. A series of studies of dugong herbivory revealed that the marine mammal has great impacts not only on seagrass productivity but also on the infaunal community. Furthermore, it has been found that seed predators have a negative influence on seed production and the subsequent recruitment of seagrass. Recent studies have also demonstrated significant effects of fine-scale landscape patterns in seagrass vegetation on productivity, species interactions and community structure in seagrass beds. Future research integrating new concepts and theories in ecology, such as metapopulation and hierarchy theories, with new research tools, such as molecular-genetic analyses and remote-sensing techniques, may aid in developing a more comprehensive understanding of population and community dynamics in seagrass beds.This article is an invited review contributed by the winner of the 2003 Population Ecology Young Scientist Award.     

Evolution and spatial structure interact to influence plant–herbivore population and community dynamics

An individual-based model of plant–herbivore interactions was developed to test the potentially interactive effects of explicit space and coevolution on population and community dynamics. Individual plants and herbivores resided in cells on a lattice and carried linked interaction genes. Interaction strength between individual plants and herbivores depended on concordance between these genes (gene-for-gene coevolution). Mating and dispersal among individuals were controlled spatially within variably sized neighbourhoods. Without evolution we observed high-frequency plant–herbivore oscillations (blue spectra) with small individual neighbourhoods, and stochastic fluctuations (white spectra) with large neighbourhoods. Evolution resulted in decreased interaction strength, decreased herbivore-induced plant mortality, increased population sizes, and longer-term fluctuations (reddened spectra). Small herbivore neighbourhoods led to herbivore extinction only with evolution. To explore the increased population size response to evolution we ran simulations without evolution while tuning plant–herbivore interaction strength from high to none. We found that herbivore populations were maximized at intermediate levels of interaction strength that coincided with the interaction strength achieved when the system tuned itself through evolution. Overall, our model shows that the small-scale details of phenotypically variable individual-level interactions, leading to evolutionary dynamics, affect large-scale population and community dynamics.     

Deterministic chaоs and the problem of predictability in population dynamics

The studies of the processes that can significantly influence the predictability in population dynamics are reviewed and the results of mathematical simulations of population dynamics are compared to the time series obtained in field observations. Considerable attention is given to the chaotic changes in population abundance. Some methods of numerical analysis of chaoticity and predictability of the time series are considered. The importance of comparing the results of mathematical simulation and observation data is tightly linked to problems in detecting chaos in the dynamics of natural populations and estimating the prevalence of chaotic regimes in nature. Insight into these problems can allow identification of the functional role of chaotic regimes in population dynamics.     

An integrative approach to understanding host–parasitoid population dynamics in real landscapes

Many of our advances regarding the spatial ecology of predators and prey have been attributed to research with insect parasitoids and their hosts. Host–parasitoid systems are ideal for spatial-ecological studies because of the small size of the organisms, the often discrete distribution of their resources, and the relative ease with which host mortality from parasitoids can be determined. We outline an integrated approach to studying host–parasitoid interactions in heterogeneous natural landscapes. This approach involves conducting experiments to obtain critically important information on dispersal and boundary behavior of the host and parasitoid, large-scale manipulations of landscape structure to reveal the impacts of landscape change on host–parasitoid interactions and temporal population dynamics, and the development of spatially realistic, behavior-based landscape models. The dividends from such an integrative approach are far reaching, as is illustrated in our research on the prairie planthopper Prokelisia crocea and its egg parasitoid Anagrus columbi that occurs in the tall-grass prairies of North America. Here, we describe the population structure of this system which is based on a long-term survey of planthoppers and parasitoids among host–plant patches. We also outline novel approaches to experimentally quantify and model the movement and boundary behavior of animals in general. The value of this information is revealed in a landscape-level field experiment that was designed to test predictions about how landscape change affects the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the host and parasitoid. Finally, with these empirical data as the foundation, we describe novel simulation models that are spatially realistic and behavior based. Drawing from this integrated approach and case study, we identify key research questions for the future.     

Asexual reproduction changes predator population dynamics in a life predator–prey system

Many organisms display oscillations in population size. Theory predicts that these fluctuations can be generated by predator–prey interactions, and empirical studies using life model systems, such as a rotifer-algae community consisting of Brachionus calyciflorus as predator and Chlorella vulgaris as prey, have been successfully used for studying such dynamics. B. calyciflorus is a cyclical parthenogen (CP) and clones often differ in their sexual propensity, that is, the degree to which they engage into sexual or asexual (clonal) reproduction. Since sexual propensities can affect growth rates and population sizes, we hypothesized that this might also affect population oscillations. Here, we studied the dynamical behaviour of B. calyciflorus clones representing either CPs (regularly inducing sex) or obligate parthenogens (OPs). We found that the amplitudes of population cycles to be increased in OPs at low nutrient levels. Several other population dynamic parameters seemed unaffected. This suggests that reproductive mode might be an important additional variable to be considered in future studies of population oscillations.     

Does mobility explain variation in colonisation and population recovery among stream fishes?

1. Colonisation and population recovery are crucial to species persistence in environmentally variable ecosystems, but are poorly understood processes. After documenting movement rates for several species of stream fish, we predicted that this variable would influence colonisation rates more strongly than local abundance, per cent occupancy, body size and taxonomic family. We also predicted that populations of species with higher movement rates would recover more rapidly than species with lower movement rates and that assemblage structure would change accordingly. 2. To test these predictions, we removed fishes from a headwater and a mainstem creek in southwest Virginia and monitored colonisation over a 2‐year period. Using an information–theoretic approach, we evaluated the relative plausibility of 15 alternative models containing different combinations of our predictor variables. Our best‐supported model contained movement rate and abundance and was 41 times more likely to account for observed patterns in colonisation rates than the next‐best model. Movement rate and abundance were both positively related to colonisation rates and explained 88% of the variation in colonisation rates among species. 3. Population recovery, measured as the per cent of initial abundance restored, was also positively associated with movement rate. One species recovered within 3 months, most recovered within 2 years, but two species still had not recovered after 2 years. Despite high variation in recovery, the removal had only a slight impact on assemblage structure because species that were abundant in pre‐removal samples were also abundant in post‐removal samples. 4. The significance of interspecific variation in colonisation and recovery rates has been underappreciated because of the widely documented recovery of stream fish assemblages following fish kills and small‐scale experimental defaunations. Our results indicate that recovery of the overall assemblage does not imply recovery of each component species. Populations of species that are rare and less mobile will recover more slowly and will be more vulnerable to extinction in systems where chemical spills, hydrological alteration, extreme droughts and other impacts are frequent.     

Selected airborne allergenic fungal spores and meteorological factors in Szczecin,Poland, 2004–2006

Airborne fungal spore concentrations in Szczecin, Poland, were studied between 2004 and 2006 with the objective of determining a seasonal variation in the concentrations of selected fungal spore types in relation to meteorological parameters. The presence of spores of five taxa, namely, Cladosporium, Ganoderma, Alternaria, Leptosphaeria and Didymella, was recorded using a volumetric method (Hirst type). Fungal spores were present in the air in large numbers during the summer, with the highest concentrations recorded mainly in June, July and August. The peak concentrations of two of the studied spore types, Ganoderma and Alternaria, occurred in August, while the concentrations of Cladosporium, Leptosphaeria and Didymella spores were the highest in July. Multiple regression analysis was performed for three fungal seasons—2004, 2005 and 2006. Spore concentration was found to be positively correlated with the minimum temperature. For some spore types, there was also a significant correlation between concentrations, relative humidity and rain.     

Variation in Ambrosia pollen concentration in Southern and Central Poland in 1982–1999

The aim of the study was to investigate theAmbrosia pollen concentrations inselected Polish cities and for Kraków torelate it to some meteorological factors.Sampling was carried out in Kraków in1982–1997 and in Rabka in 1992–1996 with theuse of the gravimetric method. In Zakopane,Kraków, Ostrowiec witokrzyski,Warszawa and Pozna in 1995–1996 both thegravimetric and volumetric methods (Burkardtrap) were employed. In Kraków themonitoring has been performed since 1994 usingthe volumetric method. The results show theragweed pollen presence in August and Septemberwith the tendency to appear more frequently inAugust in some years. In Kraków (1994–1999)Ambrosia pollen was found either in thelast two weeks of August or in the first twoweeks of September which seems to be a regularand repeatable pattern every two years.Seasonal fluctuations of Ambrosia pollenconcentration do not show a clear increasingtendency except at Warszawa and Ostrowiecwitokrzyski in 1996 and at Krakówin 1999. Percentage of Ambrosia pollen inannual sums of total pollen is very low anddoes not exceed 1% except at Ostrowiecwitokrzyski in 1996 (1.2%) and atKraków in 1999 (2%). For Kraków theanalysis of some meteorological factors (Tmax,Tmin, precipitation, wind direction) wasperformed. High temperature and lack of rain orlow precipitation correlate well with ragweedpollen concentrations. During the Ambrosia pollen seasons ESE, E, S, SE, WSW, SWwind directions prevailed which could suggest along-distance transport from Ukraine, the CzechRepublic, Slovakia and also from Hungary, one ofthe most ragweed-polluted countries.     

Wolf predation and snow cover as mortality factors in the ungulate community of the Bialowieża National Park,Poland

Summary Wolf-ungulate interactions were studied in the pristine deciduous and mixed forests of the Bialowiea National Park in 1985–1989. The study period included two severe and two mild winters. The community of ungulates inhabiting Bialowiea National Park consisted of red deer Cervus elaphus, 55% of all ungulates; wild boar Sus scrofa, 42%; and roe deer Capreolus capreolus, moose Alces alces, and European bison Bison bonasus, about 1% each. The average size of red deer groups increased from 2.7 (SD 2.35) in spring and summer to 6.9 (SD 6.84) in autumn and winter. In winter the group size of red deer was positively correlated with the depth of snow cover and negatively correlated with the mean daily temperature. Average group size of wild boar did not change significantly between seasons; it was 6.8 (SD 5.16) in spring and summer and 5.7 (SD 4.67) in autumn and winter. Analysis of 144 wolf scats showed that wolves preyed selectively on red deer. In October–April, Cervidae (mostly red deer) constituted 91% of biomass consumed by wolves, while wild boar made up only 8%. In May–September deer formed 77% of prey biomass, and the share of wild boar increased to 22%. In all seasons of the year wolves selected juveniles from deer and boar populations: 61% of red deer and 94% of wild boar of determined age recovered from wolves' scats were young <1 year old. Analysis of 117 carcasses of ungulates found in Bialowiea National Park showed that predation was the predominant mortality factor for red deer (40 killed, 10 dead from causes other than predation) and roe deer (4 killed, none dead). Wild boar suffered most from severe winter conditions (8 killed, 56 dead). The percentage of ungulates that had died from undernutrition and starvation in the total mortality was proportional to the severity of winter.