基于FARSITE模型的丰林自然保护区潜在林火行为空间分布特征

将FARSITE火行为模型应用于丰林自然保护区林火行为预测,并根据Rothermel和Rinehart制定的林火行为等级标准,编制潜在林火行为空间区划图,以探讨林火行为的空间分布特征。研究结果表明:在有可能、易发生和极易发生3个森林火险等级下,丰林自然保护区林火行为主要分布在Class I和ClassⅡ等级上,使用手工工具可能从火头控制火势蔓延;林火行为等级空间分布特征较为明显,ClassⅢ等级的火行为主要分布在区域中东部,ClassⅡ主要分布在区域中部,而Class I则主要分布在区域四周;高强度林火行为主要分布在可燃物模型为FL-Ⅰ和FL-Ⅱ,海拔为300—400 m、坡度为平坡和缓坡、坡向为阳坡上。高强度林火发生在接近道路与居民点500 m的区域内分布面积明显高于分布在距离道路居民点500—1000 m和1000—1500 m区域。     

空间直观景观模型LANDIS Ⅰ．运行机制

空间直观景观模型是指在异质景观中模拟景观尺度上生态过程的空间直观模型．LANDIS是一个用于模拟森林景观干扰、演替和管理的空间直观景观模型．通过在样地尺度上跟踪以10年为间隔的物种年龄级,半定量化地描述火和风倒,及使用位数组表示物种年龄结构,LANDIS能同时在物种、样地和景观尺度上模拟各种生态过程及其相互关系．详细论述了LANDIS模型对种子传播、火、风倒和砍伐等生态过程的模拟,并讨论了模型中存在的一些不足．     

大兴安岭呼中林区虫害与火干扰交互作用的长期模拟

虫害和林火是森林生态系统的两种主要干扰类型,各种干扰在大时空尺度上存在一定的交互作用.本文采用空间直观景观模型LANDIS模拟虫害和林火在300年内的交互作用.结果表明:虫害干扰降低了细可燃物载量,提高了模拟前期(0～100 a)和中期(100～200 a)的粗可燃物载量,降低了模拟前期和中期的林火频率,不同干扰预案模拟后期(200～300 a)火烧频率的结果比较接近;虫害干扰降低了模拟前期和后期的火烧强度,增加了模拟中期的火烧强度,提高了模拟中期的森林火险等级,降低了模拟前期和后期的火险等级.人类灭火可增加虫害的发生面积,因此建议森林管理部门采取适当的防虫措施,不可只注重灭火,可以采取可燃物去除和计划火烧等方式管理林火,促进森林生态系统的可持续发展.     

大兴安岭人为火发生影响因素及气候变化下的趋势

我国重要的北方针叶林地区大兴安岭是林火高发地区.受气候变暖影响,该地区林火发生频率将会发生显著变化.模拟人为火的发生分布与影响因素之间的关系、加强气候变化下人为火的发生分布预测,对于林火管理和减少森林碳损失具有重要作用.本文采用点格局分析方法,基于大兴安岭1967—2006年的火烧数据,建立人为火空间分布与影响因素之间的关系模型,该模型以林火发生次数为因变量,选取非生物因子(年均温和降水量、坡度、坡向和海拔)、生物因子(植被类型)和人为活动因子(距离道路距离、距离居民点距离、道路密度)共9个因子为自变量.并采用RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5气候情景数据代替当前气候情景预测2050年大兴安岭人为火的空间分布状况.结果表明: 点格局模型能够较好地模拟人为火发生分布与空间变量的关系,可以预测未来气候下人为火的发生概率.其中,气候因子对人为火的发生具有明显的控制作用,植被类型、海拔和人为活动等因子对人为火的发生也具有重要影响.林火发生预测结果表明,未来气候变化下,南部地区的林火发生概率将进一步增加,北部和沿主要道路干线附近将成为新的人为火高发区.与当前相比,2050年大兴安岭人为火的发生概率将增加72.2%～166.7%.在未来气候情景下,人为火的发生更多受气候和人为活动因素的控制.     

大兴安岭林火发生的时空聚集性特征

林火是大兴安岭林区重要的干扰因子之一,揭示其发生的时空分布特征和规律,对林火安全管理和未来气候变化下的林火预测具有重要作用。本文以大兴安岭1967—2006年发生的林火为研究对象,将其视为一个在时间和空间上完全随机的点过程。采用时间点过程方法中的变异系数和阿伦因子及空间点格局分析中的Ripley K函数和Kernel空间密度函数等估算方法,分别对大兴安岭林火时间和空间分布的聚集性范围和尺度进行分析。结果表明:在较小的时间尺度上,林火分布趋向随机过程,随着观测时间长度增大,分布的聚集性表现越显著;空间分布上,林火在一定距离尺度内表现为聚集分布,超过该尺度则为随机泊松分布;林火的分布往往聚集在某些特定区域,存在明显的林火高发区。这些结果进一步揭示了大兴安岭林火时空的内在分布规律,但对于导致这些林火时空分布格局的机制还有待进一步研究。     

虚拟森林景观中林火蔓延模型及三维可视化表达

传统上的林火模拟通常只选用一种林火模型,用一个简单的椭圆预测林火蔓延时火场各个位置的情况,与现实中火灾蔓延状况相差甚远,而且以往的林火蔓延是基于二维可视化表达,表达信息有限.本系统采用现今运用最广泛的Rothermel模型,利用Huygen原理,并以改进的粒子系统方法三维模拟在不同的风速、坡度下林火在火场不同位置的扩散行为.采用该方法模拟林火扩散行为,不仅能实时显示受灾面积、火势蔓延的方向、火势大小,且能给人以真实感.并将该方法成功地应用于福建漳浦林区.     

森林火旋风研究进展

火旋风是林火蔓延过程中的特殊火行为现象,与树冠火和飞火关系密切.火旋风的发生机理在于旋转涡的生成和发展.构建室内火旋风模拟发生装置是当前火旋风研究的常用方法.在室内模拟试验中,红外热像和热电偶可用于测量火焰温度,高速摄影、三维激光多普勒和皮托管用于测量火旋风的转速.基于室内实验数据,可构建模拟火旋风发生发展的三维模型.     

森林火旋风研究进展

火旋风是林火蔓延过程中的特殊火行为现象,与树冠火和飞火关系密切.火旋风的发生机理在于旋转涡的生成和发展.构建室内火旋风模拟发生装置是当前火旋风研究的常用方法.在室内模拟试验中,红外热像和热电偶可用于测量火焰温度,高速摄影、三维激光多普勒和皮托管用于测量火旋风的转速.基于室内实验数据,可构建模拟火旋风发生发展的三维模型.     

西南林区森林火灾火行为模拟模型评价

林火火行为特征是进行及时有效的林火预防和扑救的重要技术参考,国外普遍做法是借助火行为模拟模型进行获取.本文选用美国和加拿大行业普遍使用的Farsite和Prometheus火行为模拟模型对发生在中国西南林区的安宁“3·29”森林大火进行模拟,通过对比模拟结果和相关林火资料,定量评价模型的模拟精度.结果表明: 在蔓延范围模拟方面,Farsite在Scott可燃物模型下的模拟精度最高,Prometheus最差,但差距不大,Farsite与Prometheus火场范围的差异区主要集中在云南松分布区;在蔓延速度(ROS)模拟方面,Farsite在2种可燃物模型下的平均ROS模拟输出最接近实际情况,Prometheus则偏离实际情况较远,Farsite与Prometheus的ROS差异区主要集中在云南松分布区;在火线强度(FLI)模拟方面,Farsite在2种可燃物模型下的平均FLI模拟输出结果类似,Farsite与Prometheus的输出差异较大,差异区主要集中在栎类灌木分布区.     

林火干扰对大兴安岭主要林分类型地上生物量预测的影响模拟研究

林火干扰是北方森林最主要的自然干扰之一,对北方森林地上生物量影响是一个长期的过程。因此,在预测地上生物量动态变化时需要考虑林火的影响。运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS PRO,模拟大兴安岭林区林火对不同树种地上生物量预测的影响。选取研究区5种主要树种林分(兴安落叶松、樟子松、云杉、白桦和山杨),以无干扰情景为参考预案,在验证模型模拟结果的基础上,模拟林火在短期(0—50a)、中期(50—150a)和长期(150—300a)对地上生物量的定量化影响,及其对不同立地类型地上生物量的动态变化。结果表明:(1)基于森林调查数据参数化的2000年森林景观模拟结果能够较好地代表2000年真实森林景观,模拟的2010年森林林分密度和胸高断面积与2010年森林调查数据无显著性差异(P0.05),当前林火干扰机制模拟结果能够较好地与样地调查数据匹配,说明林火模拟能够代表当前研究区林火发生情况;(2)与无干扰预案相比,整个模拟时期内景观水平上林火减少了1.7—5.9 t/hm2地上生物量;(3)与无干扰预案相比,林火预案下主要树种生物量在短期、中期和长期变化显著(P0.05);(4)在不同模拟时期,林火显著地改变了地上生物量空间分布,其中以亚高山区地上生物量降低最为明显。研究可为长期森林管理以及森林可持续发展提供参考。     

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity explain disease dynamics in a spatially explicit network model

There is an increasing recognition that individual-level spatial and temporal heterogeneity may play an important role in metapopulation dynamics and persistence. In particular, the patterns of contact within and between aggregates (e.g., demes) at different spatial and temporal scales may reveal important mechanisms governing metapopulation dynamics. Using 7 years of data on the interaction between the anther smut fungus (Microbotryum violaceum) and fire pink (Silene virginica), we show how the application of spatially explicit and implicit network models can be used to make accurate predictions of infection dynamics in spatially structured populations. Explicit consideration of both spatial and temporal organization reveals the role of each in spreading risk for both the host and the pathogen. This work suggests that the application of spatially explicit network models can yield important insights into how heterogeneous structure can promote the persistence of species in natural landscapes.     

Rainfall,geology and landscape position generate large‐scale spatiotemporal fire pattern heterogeneity in an African savanna

Fire is considered a critical management tool in fire prone landscapes. Often studies and policies relating to fire focus on why and how the fire regime should be managed, often neglecting to subsequently evaluate management's ability to achieve these objectives over long temporal and large spatial scales. This study explores to what extent the long‐term spatio‐temporal fire patterns recorded in the Kruger National Park, South Africa has been influenced by management policies and to what extent it was dictated by underlying variability in the abiotic template. This was done using a spatially explicit fire‐scar database from 1941 to 2006 across the 2 million ha Park. Fire extent (ha burnt per annum) 1) is correlated with rainfall cycles 2) exhibits no long‐term trend and 3) is largely non‐responsive to prevailing fire management policies. Rainfall, geology and distance from the closest perennial river and the interactions between these variables influence large‐scale fire pattern heterogeneity: areas with higher rainfall, on basaltic substrates and far from rivers are more fire prone and have less heterogeneous fire regimes than areas with lower rainfall, on granitic substrates and closer to rivers. This study is the first to illustrate that under a range of rainfall and geological conditions, perennial rivers influence long‐term, landscape‐scale fire patterns well beyond the riparian zone (typically up to 15 km from the river). It was concluded that despite fire management policies which historically aimed for largely homogeneous fire return regimes, spatially and temporally heterogeneous patterns have emerged. This is primarily because of differences in rainfall, geology and distance from perennial rivers. We postulate that large‐scale spatio‐temporal fire pattern heterogeneity is implicit to heterogeneous savannas, even under largely homogenizing fire policies. Management should be informed by these patterns, embracing the natural heterogeneity‐producing template. We therefore suggest that management actions will be better directed when operating at appropriate scales, nested within the broader implicit landscape patterns, and when focusing on fire regime parameters over which they have more influence (e.g. fire season).     

Differentiating Migration and Dispersal Processes for Pond-Breeding Amphibians

Abstract Understanding the movement of animals is critical to many aspects of conservation such as spread of emerging disease, proliferation of invasive species, changes in land-use patterns, and responses to global climate change. Movement processes are especially important for amphibian management and conservation as species declines and extinctions worldwide become ever more apparent. To better integrate behavioral and ecological data on amphibian movements with our use of spatially explicit demographic models and guide effective conservation solutions, I present 1) a synopsis of the literature regarding behavior, ecology, and evolution of movement in pond-breeding amphibians possessing biphasic life cycles to distinguish between migration and dispersal processes, 2) a working hypothesis of juvenile-based dispersal, and 3) a discussion of conservation issues that follow from distinguishing the spatial and temporal movements of amphibians at different scales. I define amphibian migration as intrapopulational, round-trip movements toward and away from aquatic breeding sites. Population-level management, in general, can be focused on spatial scales of <1.0 km with attention focused on adult population and juveniles that remain near the natal wetland. I define amphibian dispersal as interpopulational, unidirectional movements from natal sites to other breeding sites. Metapopulation- or landscape-level management can be focused on movements among populations at spatial scales >1.0–10.0 km and on importance of terrestrial connectivity. The ultimate goal of conservation for amphibians should be long-term regional persistence by addressing management issues at both local and metapopulation scales.     

基于LANDIS-II的陕西黄龙山森林景观演变动态模拟

应用空间直观景观模型LANDIS-II模拟了陕西黄龙山森林景观在不考虑风、火、病虫害及采伐等干扰因素前提下300a(2004—2304年)的自然演替进行动态,采用景观格局统计软件APACK计算了林区内优势树种所占的面积百分比以及反映物种分布格局的聚集度指数,分析了各个树种在模拟的时间尺度上龄级组成的变化趋势。结果表明:油松是针叶树中的优势种,辽东栎是阔叶树中的优势种;在演替后期油松取代辽东栎成为所占面积比例最大的优势树种;油松和辽东栎的相对聚集度较其它几类树种小;随着模拟年代的推进,树种年龄结构发生显著变化,呈现出复杂多样的异龄林空间分布格局。     

An Invasive Grass Increases Live Fuel Proportion and Reduces Fire Spread in a Simulated Grassland

Fire is a globally important ecosystem process, and invasive grass species generally increase fire spread by increasing the fuel load and continuity of native grassland fuelbeds. We suggest that invasive grasses that are photosynthetically active, while the native plant community is dormant reduce fire spread by introducing high-moisture, live vegetation gaps in the fuelbed. We describe the invasion pattern of a high-moisture, cool-season grass, tall fescue (Schedonorus phoenix (Scop.) Holub), in tallgrass prairie, and use spatially explicit fire behavior models to simulate fire spread under several combinations of fuel load, invasion, and fire weather scenarios. Reduced fuel load and increased extent of tall fescue invasion reduced fire spread, but high wind speed and low relative humidity can partially mitigate these effects. We attribute reduced fire spread to asynchrony in the growing seasons of the exotic, cool-season grass, tall fescue, and the native, warm-season tallgrass prairie community in this model system. Reduced fire spread under low fuel load scenarios indicate that fuel load is an important factor in fire spread, especially in invaded fuel beds. These results present a novel connection between fire behavior and asynchronous phenology between invasive grasses and native plant communities in pyrogenic ecosystems.     

Assessing Fire Potential in a Brazilian Savanna Nature Reserve1

Fire is a natural ecological force in the cerrado. However, the increasing use of fire by people means that conservation areas are subject to frequent burns. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of fire in an ecological reserve in the Brazilian savannas (cerrado) of central Brazil. Data about vegetation type, topography, climate, and fuel characteristics were input into the fire prediction models BEHAVE and FARSITE to simulate fire behavior during different weather conditions and from different entry points into the conservation area. The results indicated that there is a higher probability of fire entry from particular border regions as a result of the fuel characteristics. The presence of invasive grasses, such as Melinis minutiflora, within parts of the reserve also significantly affected the pattern of fire spread. Wind speed greatly increased the spread and extent of fire. The study showed that significant improvements in modeling fire behavior in savannas still need to be made. This study was the initial stage in the development of a decision support system for fire management in the cerrado.     

Modelling Spatial Interactions Among Fire,Spruce Budworm,and Logging in the Boreal Forest

In the boreal forest, fire, insects, and logging all affect spatial patterns in forest age and species composition. In turn, spatial legacies in age and composition can facilitate or constrain further disturbances and have important consequences for forest spatial structure and sustainability. However, the complex three-way interactions among fire, insects, and logging and their combined effects on forest spatial structure have seldom been investigated. We used a spatially explicit landscape simulation model to examine these interactions. Specifically, we investigated how the amount and the spatial scale of logging (cutblock size) in combination with succession, fire, and spruce budworm outbreaks affect area burned and area defoliated. Simulations included 30 replicates of 300 years for each of 19 different disturbance scenarios. More disturbances increased both the fragmentation and the proportion of coniferous species and imposed additional constraints on the extent of each disturbance. We also found that harvesting legacies affect fire and budworm differently due to differences in forest types consumed by each disturbance. Contrary to expectation, budworm defoliation did not affect area burned at the temporal scales studied and neither amount of logging nor cutblock size influenced defoliation extent. Logging increased fire size through conversion of more of the landscape to early seral, highly flammable forest types. Although logging increased the amount of budworm host species, spruce budworm caused mortality was reduced due to reductions in forest age. In general, we found that spatial legacies do not influence all disturbances equally and the duration of a spatial legacy is limited when multiple disturbances are present. Further information on post-disturbance succession is still needed to refine our understanding of long-term disturbance interactions.     

Modeling Trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey Data: A Spatially Explicit Approach

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.