Medieval and Early Modern Whaling in Portugal

ABSTRACT

Mainland Portugal is not renowned for having been a whaling nation of significance. However, preliminary studies have brought to light enough historical references to suggest that whaling occurred from at least the 13th century, and the present work identifies 38 historical sources documenting whale use or whaling on the Portuguese coast between 1201 and 1728. A peak of whale-related sources occurred during the 13th and 14th centuries, and almost all Portuguese accounts are contemporary to those found from the French and Spanish Basque countries, such that the beginning of the whaling activity seems to be coeval. No geographical cluster of whaling activities can be established—they seem to have been unevenly scattered along the entire coastline. Nor can a chronological north–south movement of coastal whaling activities be discerned. The geographical and chronological patterns give support to the assumption that whaling was not introduced to Portugal by the Basques, who are known to have spread westward from the French Labourd (11th century), via Golf of Biscay, to Asturias, and southward to Galicia (14th century). Rather, Portuguese whale use seems to have originated independently of Basque influence. Several of the sources specify “black whales” as the target species. This is consistent with modern knowledge about the distribution and migration patterns of North Atlantic right whales during Basque medieval and early modern whaling. The Portuguese sources are not clear as to numbers of whales taken, nor to the whaling technology used, but the activity was sufficiently well organized and developed to warrant the levying of tithes in the feudal system of 13th-century Portugal.     

CATCHES OF HUMPBACK AND OTHER WHALES FROM SHORE STATIONS AT MOSS LANDING AND TRINIDAD, CALIFORNIA, 1919–1926

Logbook data from California shore whaling stations at Moss Landing (1919–1922 and 1924) and Trinidad (1920 and 1922–1926) are analyzed. The logs for the two stations record the taking of 2,111 whales, including 1,871 humpbacks, 177 fin whales, 26 sei whales, 3 blue whales, 12 sperm whales, 7 gray whales, 1 right whale, 1 Baird's beaked whale, and 13 whales of unspecified type (probably humpbacks). Most whales were taken from spring to autumn, but catches were made in all months of some years. The sex ratios of humpback, fin, and sei whales (the three species with sufficient sample sizes to test) did not differ from parity. Primary prey, determined from stomach contents, included sardines and euphausiids for both humpback and fin whales, and 'plankton' (probably euphausiids) for sei whales. The prevalence of pregnancy was 0.46 among mature female humpbacks and 0.43 among mature female fin whales, although these values are reported with caution. Information on length distribution for all species is summarized. Analysis of the catch data for this and other areas supports the current view that humpback whales along the west coast of the continental United States comprise a single feeding stock and also suggests that the present population is well below pre-exploitation levels.     

RELATIVE ABUNDANCE OF LARGE WHALES AROUND SOUTH GEORGIA (1979–1998)1

To assess large-whale stocks following the cessation of land-based South Georgia whaling in 1965, we report three independent sighting databases: a cruise in 1997, observations from Bird Island (NW of South Georgia) between 1979 and 1998, and mariner sightings between 1992 and 1997. All species were rare, with sightings of southern right whales being the most common event. Two right whales photographed off South Georgia matched animals known from Peninsula Valdés, Argentina, a population known to be growing at 7%per annum. In contrast, blue and fin whales appeared to be less abundant. A single blue whale mother-calf pair was observed off the Shag Rocks in February 1997. Extirpation of animals from this particular feeding ground is the most likely reason for ongoing low numbers of all species. Other factors may include competition for krill by traditional predators such as penguins and seals and more recently by humans, an unusually high rate of natural mortality, habitat change such as alteration in sea ice coverage, and/or the impact of ongoing whaling. The history of this critical area of large-whale habitat and this report demonstrate the need for improved, consistent longterm monitoring of population trends for these depleted stocks.     

MIGRATION AND POPULATION STRUCTURE OF NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WHALES OFF COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA: AN ANALYSIS OF COMMERCIAL WHALING RECORDS FROM 1908-1967

Data recorded from 24,862 whales killed by British Columbia coastal whaling stations between 1908 and 1967 revealed trends in the abundance, sex ratios, age structure, and distribution of sperm ( Physeter macrocephalus ), fin ( Balaenoptera physalus ), sei ( Balaenoptera borealis ), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), and blue ( Balaenoptera musculus ) whales. The catch data were analyzed using annual and monthly mean values. Monthly and annual variation in whaling effort was deduced from accounts of the history of British Columbia coastal whaling, and biases arising from changes in effort were considered in the interpretation of the results. During the later years of whaling (1948-1967), the mean lengths of captured whales declined significantly and pregnancy rates dropped to near zero in fin, sei, and blue whales. Monthly patterns in numbers killed revealed a summer migration of sei and blue whales past Vancouver Island, and confirms anecdotal suggestions that local populations of fin and humpback whales once spent extended periods in the coastal waters of British Columbia. Furthermore, the data strongly suggest that sperm whales mated (April-May) and calved (July-August) in British Columbia's offshore waters. The historic whaling records reveal much about the migratory behavior and distribution of the large whales species as they once were, and may continue to be, in the northeastern Pacific. Verifying the persistence of these trends in the remnant populations is a necessary and logical next step.     

Using pre- and postexploitation samples to assess the impact of commercial whaling on the genetic characteristics of eastern North Pacific gray and humpback whales and to compare methods used to infer historic demography

Many species of whales went through recent bottlenecks due to commercial whaling. These declines were rapid and recent relative to the life spans and generation times of these species, raising questions regarding to what degree commercial whaling influenced the genetic characteristics of these populations. We analyzed mitochondrial and nuclear DNA from pre- and postwhaling samples from two populations that have arguably shown the greatest degree of recovery: eastern North Pacific gray and humpback whales. We also compare the performance of different methods to test for historic bottlenecks and infer past demography based on genetic data. We found substantially higher levels of genetic diversity in gray than in humpback whales (for both time periods), likely due to recent connectivity between Atlantic and Pacific gray whale populations. Other than mitochondrial diversity in humpback whales, levels of diversity were not lower in contemporary samples relative to prewhaling samples, indicating that commercial whaling had a minimal impact on metrics of genetic diversity themselves. However, it did have large impacts on the patterns of diversity, as evidenced by all coalescent-based methods showing clear evidence of a bottleneck for both populations, whereas all but one method not based on the coalescent failed to detect a bottleneck.     

PATTERNS OF BOWHEAD WHALE DISTRIBUTION AND ABUNDANCE NEAR BARROW, ALASKA, IN FALL 1982-1989

Although the distribution and relative abundance of bowhead whales varied annually within the fall whaling area near Barrow, Alaska, the distance of whales from shore was not significantly different among years 1982-1989 (ANOVA, F = 0.5, P > 0.5). The minimum detectable distance for the ANOVA was 12 km (α= 0.05, β= 0.1). Annual median distance of random bowhead sightings from shore ranged from 23 to 39 km, with an eight-year median of 32 km. Highest annual bowhead sighting rates were positively associated with the proportion of feeding whales, indicating that whale feeding opportunities may affect the availability of whales within hunting range each fall.     

Dangerous dining: surface foraging of North Atlantic right whales increases risk of vessel collisions

North Atlantic right whales are critically endangered and, despite international protection from whaling, significant numbers die from collisions with ships. Large groups of right whales migrate to the coastal waters of New England during the late winter and early spring to feed in an area with large numbers of vessels. North Atlantic right whales have the largest per capita record of vessel strikes of any large whale population in the world. Right whale feeding behaviour in Cape Cod Bay (CCB) probably contributes to risk of collisions with ships. In this study, feeding right whales tagged with archival suction cup tags spent the majority of their time just below the water's surface where they cannot be seen but are shallow enough to be vulnerable to ship strike. Habitat surveys show that large patches of right whale prey are common in the upper 5 m of the water column in CCB during spring. These results indicate that the typical spring-time foraging ecology of right whales may contribute to their high level of mortality from vessel collisions. The results of this study suggest that remote acoustic detection of prey aggregations may be a useful supplement to the management and conservation of right whales.     

RIGHT WHALES (EUBALAENA GLACIALIS) ON JEFFREYS LEDGE: A HABITAT OF UNRECOGNIZED IMPORTANCE?

North Atlantic right whales ( Eubalaena glacialis ) are known to spend the majority of the year between the Great South Channel southeast of Cape Cod, and the Nova Scotian shelf. We examined sightings of right whales on and around Jeffreys Ledge, a 54-km-long glacial deposit off the coast of northern Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. Sightings on Jeffreys Ledge were extracted from three data sets: (1) a systematic survey of the entire northeastern continental shelf between 1979 and 1982, (2) whale-watch and research-cruise sighting data from 1984 to 1997, and (3) a collaborative database of sightings collected by organizations conducting right whale research and all other available sources. Each database supported two seasonal sighting peaks. During summer (especially July and August) sightings were primarily of mother-calf pairs. Several cow-calf pairs were seen over several days to weeks. Several females were resighted in more than one year, but only when calves were present. During October, November, and December, sightings included all age classes, surface-feeding behavior was frequently observed, and some animals were resighted over several weeks. Given the relatively reduced sighting effort during fall, this number of sightings is surprising. During the 20 yr of observations, 52 of 374 photo-identified North Atlantic right whales (13.9%) were seen at least once on Jeffreys Ledge. We suggest that Jeffreys Ledge may be a more important right whale habitat than previously believed, and that it may play an important role in annual movements and distribution of this population.     

Historic and current habitat use by North Pacific right whales Eubalaena japonica in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska

1. To help define areas and ecological parameters critical to the survival and recovery of the remnant population of North Pacific right whales, habitat use was investigated by examining all available sighting and catch records in the south-eastern Bering Sea (SEBS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA) over the past two centuries. 2. Based on re-analyses of commercial whaling records, search effort, and resultant catches and sightings, waters of the: (i) SEBS slope and shelf, (ii) eastern Aleutian Islands and (iii) GOA slope and abyssal plain were important habitat for North Pacific right whales through the late 1960s. 3. Since 1980, the only area where right whales have been seen consistently is on the SEBS middle shelf. However, acoustic detections and single sightings have been reported in all other regions except the SEBS slope and oceanic GOA (areas where little, if any, acoustic and visual effort has occurred). 4. Sightings since 1979 were in waters < 200 m deep which may simply reflect the paucity of search effort elsewhere. From the commercial whaling era to the late 1960s, right whales were commonly seen in waters > 2000 m deep, indicating that their distribution is not restricted to shallow continental shelves. 5. North Pacific right whale sightings through the centuries have been associated with a variety of oceanic features, and there is little in common in the bathymetry of these regions. These whales appear to have a greater pelagic distribution than that observed in the North Atlantic, which may be related to the availability of larger copepods across the SEBS and GOA.     

Bowhead whales Balaena mysticetus in the Okhotsk Sea

• 1 Little is known about the endangered population of bowhead whales Balaena mysticetus in the Okhotsk Sea (OS). Here, we review existing information about this stock, including much material published in Russian.
• 2 Whaling for OS bowheads began around 1846, was pursued intensively for two decades and continued sporadically until about 1913. Beginning in 1967, whalers from the USSR killed bowheads illegally, although the number of whales taken remains unknown. Estimates of the pre‐exploitation population size have ranged from 3000 to 20000 whales, but all such estimates are based upon untested assumptions and incomplete data.
• 3 Information on historical and current distribution of bowheads comes from whaling records (notably Townsend 1935 ) and from modern (notably Russian/Soviet) marine mammal surveys. Little is known about winter distribution. During spring and summer, known bowhead concentrations occur in Shelikhov Bay and at Shantar. Although historical whaling data show bowheads in Shelikhov Bay during summer and early autumn, there have been no recent sightings later than June. However, extensive 19th century catches were made over much of the northern OS, and the present range and habitat use of the population is probably broader than existing data suggest. There is evidence for age or maturational class segregation between Shantar and Shelikhov Bay; the former hosts immature whales and lactating females, and the latter hosts adults.
• 4 Genetic data indicate that the OS bowhead stock is separate from the Bering‐Chukchi‐Beaufort population, but that the two populations share a common ancestry. There is no evidence that bowheads ever leave the OS.
• 5 Russian observers have put the current size of the OS stock in the low hundreds, but this is not based on quantitative analysis. Overall, the OS bowhead population is very likely to be relatively small; it did not recover from the intensive whaling in the 19th century, and the illegal Soviet catches of the 1960s have further set back its recovery. Dedicated surveys and other research are required to assess the status and conservation needs of the population.

     

Insights into the population structure of blue whales in the Eastern North Pacific from recent sightings and photographic identification

Blue whales were widely distributed in the North Pacific prior to the primary period of modern commercial whaling in the early 1900s. Despite concentrations of blue whale catches off British Columbia and in the Gulf of Alaska, there had been few documented sightings in these areas since whaling for blue whales ended in 1965. In contrast, large concentrations of blue whales have been documented off California and Baja California and in the eastern tropical Pacific since the 1970s, but it was not known if these animals were part of the same population that previously ranged into Alaskan waters. We document 15 blue whale sightings off British Columbia and in the Gulf of Alaska made since 1997, and use identification photographs to show that whales in these areas are currently part of the California feeding population. We speculate that this may represent a return to a migration pattern that has existed for earlier periods for eastern North Pacific blue whale population. One possible explanation for a shift in blue whale use is changes in prey driven by changes in oceanographic conditions, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which coincides with some of the observed shifts in blue whale occurrence.     

Sperm whale depredation of sablefish longline gear in the northeast Pacific Ocean

Interactions between marine mammals and fisheries include competition for prey (catch), marine mammal entanglement in fishing gear, and catch removal off fishing gear (depredation). We estimated the magnitude of sperm whale depredation on a major North Pacific longline fishery (sablefish) using data collected during annual longline surveys. Sperm whale depredation occurs while the longline gear is off‐bottom during retrieval. Sperm whales were observed on 16% of longline survey sampling days, mostly (95% of sightings) over the continental slope. Sightings were most common in the central and eastern Gulf of Alaska (98% of sightings), occasional in the western Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands, and absent in the Bering Sea. Longline survey catches were commonly preyed upon when sperm whales were present (65% of sightings), as evidenced by damaged fish. Neither sperm whale presence (P = 0.71) nor depredation rate (P = 0.78) increased significantly from 1998 to 2004. Longline survey catch rates were about 2% less at locations where depredation was observed, but the effect was not significant (P = 0.34). Estimated sperm whale depredation was <1% of the annual sablefish longline fishery catch off Alaska during 1998 to 2004.     

Past and present distribution, densities and movements of blue whales Balaenoptera musculus in the Southern Hemisphere and northern Indian Ocean

• 1 Blue whale locations in the Southern Hemisphere and northern Indian Ocean were obtained from catches (303 239), sightings (4383 records of ≥8058 whales), strandings (103), Discovery marks (2191) and recoveries (95), and acoustic recordings.
• 2 Sighting surveys included 7 480 450 km of effort plus 14 676 days with unmeasured effort. Groups usually consisted of solitary whales (65.2%) or pairs (24.6%); larger feeding aggregations of unassociated individuals were only rarely observed. Sighting rates (groups per 1000 km from many platform types) varied by four orders of magnitude and were lowest in the waters of Brazil, South Africa, the eastern tropical Pacific, Antarctica and South Georgia; higher in the Subantarctic and Peru; and highest around Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Chile, southern Australia and south of Madagascar.
• 3 Blue whales avoid the oligotrophic central gyres of the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, but are more common where phytoplankton densities are high, and where there are dynamic oceanographic processes like upwelling and frontal meandering.
• 4 Compared with historical catches, the Antarctic (‘true’) subspecies is exceedingly rare and usually concentrated closer to the summer pack ice. In summer they are found throughout the Antarctic; in winter they migrate to southern Africa (although recent sightings there are rare) and to other northerly locations (based on acoustics), although some overwinter in the Antarctic.
• 5 Pygmy blue whales are found around the Indian Ocean and from southern Australia to New Zealand. At least four groupings are evident: northern Indian Ocean, from Madagascar to the Subantarctic, Indonesia to western and southern Australia, and from New Zealand northwards to the equator. Sighting rates are typically much higher than for Antarctic blue whales.
• 6 South‐east Pacific blue whales have a discrete distribution and high sighting rates compared with the Antarctic. Further work is needed to clarify their subspecific status given their distinctive genetics, acoustics and length frequencies.
• 7 Antarctic blue whales numbered 1700 (95% Bayesian interval 860–2900) in 1996 (less than 1% of original levels), but are increasing at 7.3% per annum (95% Bayesian interval 1.4–11.6%). The status of other populations in the Southern Hemisphere and northern Indian Ocean is unknown because few abundance estimates are available, but higher recent sighting rates suggest that they are less depleted than Antarctic blue whales.

     

INTER-OBSERVER COUNT DISCREPANCIES IN A SHORE-BASED CENSUS OF GRAY WHALES (ESCHRICHTIUS ROBUSTUS)

Estimations of gray whale abundance have generally assumed that shore-based observers record all whales migrating through the viewing area during periods uncompromised by visibility. We tested the repeatability of data collected at the standard gray whale census site at Granite Canyon Marine Laboratory in central California by using pairs of observers maintaining independent sighting records. Proximal shore sites were occupied 6 d (60 h) in January 1986 where one team counted 845 whales in 427 groups while the other team counted 990 whales in 477 groups. A comparison of the records showed that the first team missed 290 whales seen by the second team, and the second team missed 204 whales seen by the first team. The total number of whales in the viewing area was calculated for each team by the Petersen estimate, using mutually sighted whale groups as "recaptures". On average, observers recorded only 79% of the whales. More whales (68%) were missed when entire groups of whales were not seen rather than when groups were undercounted (32%). Visibility did not appear to affect observed rates of missed whales. Whales migrating at intermediate distances from the shore were less often missed than were those > 6 km or < 1 km offshore. This count discrepancy test confirms that an uncorrected calculation of population size for gray whales based on sighting records from solitary observers will be underestimated.     

CHARACTERIZATION OF BEAKED WHALE (ZIPHIIDAE) AND SPERM WHALE (PHYSETER MACROCEPHALUS) SUMMER HABITAT IN SHELF-EDGE AND DEEPER WATERS OFF THE NORTHEAST U. S.

Sperm whales ( Physeter macrocephalus ) and beaked whales ( Mesoplodon spp. and Ziphius cavirostris ) are deep-diving cetaceans that frequent shelf-edge and Gulf Stream waters off the northeast U. S. coast. Sighting data collected during seven summer (1990, 1991, 1993, and 1995–1998) shipboard surveys were analyzed using a geographic information system to determine habitat use based on bathymetric and oceanographic features. Although sighting rates were lower for beaked whales, both taxa occupied similar habitats. Beaked whales were concentrated at the colder shelf edge, whereas sperm whales were associated with warmer off-shelf water. Mean sighting rates for both taxa were higher in canyon features, but only beaked whale sighting rates were significantly different between canyon and non-canyon habitat (Wilcoxon signed rank test P = 0.007). Within the shared habitat, the two taxa were separated at fine-scale based on oceanographic features.     

Adaptation of sperm whales to open-boat whalers: rapid social learning on a large scale?

Animals can mitigate human threats, but how do they do this, and how fast can they adapt? Hunting sperm whales was a major nineteenth century industry. Analysis of data from digitized logbooks of American whalers in the North Pacific found that the rate at which whalers succeeded in harpooning (‘striking’) sighted whales fell by about 58% over the first few years of exploitation in a region. This decline cannot be explained by the earliest whalers being more competent, as their strike rates outside the North Pacific, where whaling had a longer history, were not elevated. The initial killing of particularly vulnerable individuals would not have produced the observed rapid decline in strike rate. It appears that whales swiftly learned effective defensive behaviour. Sperm whales live in kin-based social units. Our models show that social learning, in which naive social units, when confronted by whalers, learned defensive measures from grouped social units with experience, could lead to the documented rapid decline in strike rate. This rapid, large-scale adoption of new behaviour enlarges our concept of the spatio-temporal dynamics of non-human culture.     

KILLER WHALE PREDATION ON SPERM WHALES: OBSERVATIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

In October 1997 we observed a herd of approximately 35 killer whales ( Orcinus orca ) attack a pod of nine sperm whales ( Physeter macrocephalus ) 130 km off the coast of central California. During the four hours we watched, adult female killer whales, including some with calves, attacked in waves of four to five animals in what was apparently a "wound and withdraw" strategy. Adult male killer whales stood by until the very end when one charged in and quickly killed a seriously wounded sperm whale that had been separated from the group. The sperm whales appeared largely helpless: their main defensive behavior was the formation of a rosette ("marguerite"-heads together, tails out). When the killer whales were successful in pulling an individual out of the rosette, one or two sperm whales exposed themselves to increased attack by leaving the rosette, flanking the isolated individual, and leading it back into the formation. Despite these efforts, one sperm whale was killed and eaten and the rest were seriously, perhaps mortally, wounded. We also present details of two other encounters between sperm whales and killer whales that we observed. Although sperm whales, because of various behavioral and morphological adaptations, were previously thought to be immune to predation, our observations clearly establish their vulnerability to killer whales. We suggest that killer whale predation has potentially been an important, and underrated, selective factor in the evolution of sperm whale ecology, influencing perhaps the development of their complex social behavior and at-sea distribution patterns.     

HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS OF HUMPBACK AND BLUE WHALES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN: CLUES TO MIGRATORY ROUTES AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL FEEDING GROUNDS

The seasonal distributions of humpback and blue whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae and Balaenoptera musculus , respectively) in the North Atlantic Ocean are not fully understood. Although humpbacks have been studied intensively in nearshore or coastal feeding and breeding areas, their migratory movements between these areas have been largely inferred. Blue whales have only been studied intensively along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and their seasonal occurrence and movements elsewhere in the North Atlantic are poorly known. We investigated the historical seasonal distributions of these two species using sighting and catch data extracted from American 18th and 19th century whaling logbooks. These data suggest that humpback whales migrated seasonally from low-latitude calving/ breeding grounds over a protracted period, and that some of them traveled far offshore rather than following coastal routes. Also, at least some humpbacks apparently fed early in the summer west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, well south of their known present-day feeding grounds. In assessing the present status of the North Atlantic humpback population, it will be important to determine whether such offshore feeding does in fact occur. Blue whales were present across the southern half of the North Atlantic during the autumn and winter months, and farther north in spring and summer, but we had too few data points to support inferences about these whales' migratory timing and routes.     

Killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation in a multi-prey system

Predation can regulate prey numbers but predator behaviour in multiple-prey systems can complicate understanding of control mechanisms. We investigate killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation in an ocean system where multiple marine mammal prey coexist. Using stochastic models with Monte-Carlo simulations, we test the most likely outcome of predator selection and compare scenarios where killer whales: (1) focus predation on larger prey which presumably offer more energy per effort, (2) generalize by feeding on prey as encountered during searches, or (3) follow a mixed foraging strategy based on a combination of encounter rate and prey size selection. We test alternative relationships within the Hudson Bay geographic region, where evidence suggests killer whales seasonally concentrate feeding activities on the large-bodied bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus). However, model results indicate that killer whales do not show strong prey specialization and instead alternatively feed on narwhal (Monodon monoceros) and beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) whales early and late in the ice-free season. Evidence does support the conjecture that during the peak of the open water season, killer whale predation can differ regionally and feeding techniques can focus on bowhead whale prey. The mixed foraging strategy used by killer whales includes seasonal predator specialization and has management and conservation significance since killer whale predation may not be constrained by a regulatory functional response.     

Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change

Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures—historical commercial whaling and future climate change—on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate–biological coupled “Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments” (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice‐associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions.