Assessing five decades of change in a high Arctic parasitoid community

Arctic ecosystems are fragile, and are particularly sensitive to the pressures of climate change. Both average temperature and precipitation have increased over the past five decades on Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada in the high Arctic. Altered growth forms and increased biomass in dominant plant species on Ellesmere Island have been observed concurrent with the changing climate, but shifts in the diversity or rank abundance of plant and bird species have not been detected. Changes in diversity may take longer to appear, or may be assessed better using organisms with shorter generation times such as insects. We explored the ecological impacts of climate change on Ellesmere Island using historical and contemporary communities of ichneumonid wasps. We compared community diversity, functional composition, and body size of two common species using ichneumonid specimens collected in 1961–1965, 1980–1982, 1989–1992, and 2010. We found high compositional similarity between collections, overlapping estimates of species richness, no change in the proportion of idiobiont genera in the community, and no clear pattern in body size over time. The greatest amount of variation over time was detected in parasitoids of herbivores; proportionally fewer herbivore‐parasitizing genera were found in 2010 than in historical collections, and the two genera that were only found in one of the four collections were both parasitoids of herbivores. Our results point to the need to assess climate change effects in Arctic systems using a range of taxa, and responses to large‐scale environmental disturbances may be idiosyncratic and difficult to predict.     

Contrasting spatial and temporal global change impacts on butterfly species richness during the 20th century

Regional patterns of species richness are often explained by models using temperature or measures habitat suitability. Generally, species richness is positively associated with temperature, and negatively associated with habitat degradation. While these models have been well tested across spatial scales, they have rarely been tested on a temporal scale – in part due to the difficulty in ascertaining accurate historical data at an appropriate resolution. In this study, we compared the results of temporal and spatial models, each incorporating two predictors of species richness: temperature, and human population density (as a surrogate of human-related habitat impacts). We found that the change in species richness from the early to late part of the 20th century was positively correlated with temperature change, and negatively correlated with human population density change. When we compared these results to two spatial models using contemporary and historic data, the spatial effects of temperature on butterfly richness were similar to its temporal effects, while the effect of human population density through time is the opposite of its spatial effect. More generally, the assumption that spatial patterns are equivalent to temporal ones when applying macroecological data to global change is clearly unreliable.     

Global environmental change effects on plant community composition trajectories depend upon management legacies

The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land‐use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey‐resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites’ contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change.     

In transition: Avian biogeographic responses to a century of climate change across desert biomes

Transition zones between biomes, also known as ecotones, are areas of pronounced ecological change. They are primarily maintained by abiotic factors and disturbance regimes that could hinder or promote species range shifts in response to climate change. We evaluated how climate change has affected metacommunity dynamics in two adjacent biomes and across their ecotone by resurveying 106 sites that were originally surveyed for avian diversity in the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. The Mojave, a warm desert, and the Great Basin, a cold desert, have distinct assemblages and meet along a contiguous, east–west boundary. Both deserts substantially warmed over the past century, but the Mojave dried while the Great Basin became wetter. We examined whether the distinctiveness and composition of desert avifaunas have changed, if species distributions shifted, and how the transition zone impacted turnover patterns. Avifauna change was characterized by (a) reduced occupancy, range contractions, and idiosyncratic species redistributions; (b) degradation of historic community structure, and increased taxonomic and climatic differentiation of the species inhabiting the two deserts; and (c) high levels of turnover at the transition zone but little range expansion of species from the warm, dry Mojave into the cooler, wetter Great Basin. Although both deserts now support more drier and warmer tolerant species, their bird communities still occupy distinct climatological space and differ significantly in climatic composition. Our results suggest a persistent transition zone between biomes contributes to limiting the redistribution of birds, and highlight the importance of understanding how transition zone dynamics impact responses to climate change.     

Shift in Plant Species Composition Reveals Environmental Changes During the Last Decades: A Long-Term Study in Beech (Fagus sylvatica) Forests in Bavaria, Germany

Changes in vegetation composition due to the increasing temperatures in the past few decades have already been reported from several parts of Europe. It has been shown that single species move either northwards or to higher elevations. We expected that the species composition of forest stands should also have changed, i.e., an increase of thermophilous species. Another site factor changing for decades is nitrogen availability; we therefore also expected an increase of nitrophilous species, which was one main result in former long-term studies. We studied the species composition of beech (Fagus sylvatica) forests in southern Germany (Bavaria), comparing old (from 1949 to 1985) and young (2010) phytosociological relevés. Ellenberg indicator values representing plant species specific environmental factors combined with climatic data were used in a partial canonical correspondence analysis (pCCA) for vegetation comparisons. Changes in plant species composition were analyzed considering species frequency, distribution of Ellenberg indicator values, shares of i) non-native plants and ii) tree, shrub and herbaceous species. Contrary to our expectations, global warming in Bavaria during the past decades resulted only in an explained dispersion of 5 % in the species composition. On the species level, an overall increase of thermophilous walnut tree saplings (Juglans regia) was conspicuous in some study areas. Nitrophilous species, however, generally increased in frequency throughout the study areas. Throughout Bavaria the most significant change was a striking increase of juvenile tree species and a decrease of herbaceous species. Up to now the increased nitrogen input into forests had a stronger provable influence on species composition shift than the global warming of the last decades. Additionally general changes in forest management also had effects on forest species. Therefore community reorganization mirroring temperature factors in beech forests in central Europe seems to be only at its very beginning.     

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species’ phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km² area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species’ phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology–climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late‐summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of Nunavut than in others.     

Effects of climate-driven temperature changes on the diversity of freshwater macroinvertebrates

Increasing temperatures due to climate change were found to influence abundance and timing of species in numerous ways. Whereas many studies have investigated climate-induced effects on the phenology and abundance of single species, less is known about climate-driven shifts in the diversity and composition of entire communities. Analyses of long-term data sets provide the potential to reveal such relationships. We analysed time series of entire communities of macrozoobenthos in lakes and streams in Northern Europe. There were no direct linear effects of temperature and climate indices (North Atlantic Oscillation index) on species composition and diversity, but using multivariate statistics we were able to show that trends in average temperature have already had profound impacts on species composition in lakes. These significant temperature signals on species composition were evident even though we analysed comparatively short time periods of 10–15 years. Future climate shifts may thus induce strong variance in community composition. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users. Priority programme of the German Research Foundation—contribution 6.     

Unlocking the vault: next‐generation museum population genomics

Natural history museum collections provide unique resources for understanding how species respond to environmental change, including the abrupt, anthropogenic climate change of the past century. Ideally, researchers would conduct genome‐scale screening of museum specimens to explore the evolutionary consequences of environmental changes, but to date such analyses have been severely limited by the numerous challenges of working with the highly degraded DNA typical of historic samples. Here, we circumvent these challenges by using custom, multiplexed, exon capture to enrich and sequence ~11 000 exons (~4 Mb) from early 20th‐century museum skins. We used this approach to test for changes in genomic diversity accompanying a climate‐related range retraction in the alpine chipmunks (Tamias alpinus) in the high Sierra Nevada area of California, USA. We developed robust bioinformatic pipelines that rigorously detect and filter out base misincorporations in DNA derived from skins, most of which likely resulted from postmortem damage. Furthermore, to accommodate genotyping uncertainties associated with low‐medium coverage data, we applied a recently developed probabilistic method to call single‐nucleotide polymorphisms and estimate allele frequencies and the joint site frequency spectrum. Our results show increased genetic subdivision following range retraction, but no change in overall genetic diversity at either nonsynonymous or synonymous sites. This case study showcases the advantages of integrating emerging genomic and statistical tools in museum collection‐based population genomic applications. Such technical advances greatly enhance the value of museum collections, even where a pre‐existing reference is lacking and points to a broad range of potential applications in evolutionary and conservation biology.     

How to be a fig wasp down under: The diversity and structure of an Australian fig wasp community

Endophytic insects and their parasitoids provide valuable models for community ecology. The wasp communities in inflorescences of fig trees have great potential for comparative studies, but we must first describe individual communities. Here, we add to the few detailed studies of such communities by describing the one associated with Ficus rubiginosa in Australia. First, we describe community composition, using two different sampling procedures. Overall, we identified 14 species of non-pollinating fig wasp (NPFW) that fall into two size classes. Small wasps, including pollinators, gallers and their parasitoids, were more abundant than large wasps (both galler and parasitoid species). We show that in figs where wasps emerge naturally, the presence of large wasps may partly explain the low emergence of small wasps. During fig development, large gallers oviposit first, before and around the time of pollination, while parasitoids lay eggs after pollination. We further show that parasitoids in the subfamily Sycoryctinae, which comprise the majority of all individual NPFWs, segregate temporally by laying eggs at different stages of fig development. We discuss our results in terms of species co-existence and community structure and compare our findings to those from fig wasp communities on other continents.     

Rapid changes in bird community composition at multiple temporal and spatial scales in response to recent climate change

Although climate change is acknowledged to affect population dynamics and species distribution, details of how community composition is affected are still lacking. We investigate whether ongoing changes in bird community composition can be explained by contemporary changes in summer temperatures, using four independent long‐term bird census schemes from Sweden (up to 57 yr); two at the national scale and two at local scales. The change in bird community composition was represented by a community temperature index (CTI) that reflects the balance in abundance between low‐ and high‐temperature dwelling species. In all schemes, CTI tracked patterns of temperature increase, stability or decrease remarkably well, with a lag period of 1–3 yr. This response was similar at both the national and local scale. However, the communities did not respond fast enough to cope with temperature increase, suggesting that community composition lags behind changes in temperature. The change in CTI was caused mainly by changes in species’ relative abundances, and less so by changes in species composition. We conclude that ongoing changes in bird community structure are driven to a large extent by contemporary changes in climate and that CTI can be used as a simple indicator for how bird communities respond.     

Unlocking avian museum collections to enable and advance environmental change research

The rate and magnitude of contemporary changes in natural systems is unprecedented in the Earth's history. Studies of wild birds have been critically important in helping us understand and address these environmental changes. Avian collections provide a potentially unique perspective on change through time, but their role in environmental change research is limited by the availability of collections data. Here we describe how avian collections might be unlocked to enable environmental change research, and discuss the opportunities and constraints associated with this. We use the concept of the extended specimen to describe the types of data that could be unlocked from basic data for discoverability to enhanced data that might be directly applied to environmental change questions. We illustrate the type of environmental change research these data might support. We argue that data creation and access is currently limited by funding for digitization, a rather patchy understanding of the needs of the research community and less than adequate data-sharing by institutions and researchers. We develop a blueprint for addressing these issues which includes (1) improvements in sharing the data we are already creating and (2) building a better case for digitization at scale. As one of the largest avian collections in the world, the Natural History Museum, UK, is committed to unlocking our collections, but we will need input and support from the avian research community to do so.     

垂叶榕榕小蜂群落及种间互作网络季节动态

群落中的物种相互作用构成了复杂的生态网络。有关物种的数量和组成的季节性动态变化已有较多的研究, 但是对于生态网络的动态变化知之甚少。揭示生态网络的动态变化对于理解群落的稳定性以及群落的动态变化过程和机理具有重要意义。本研究以垂叶榕(Ficus benjamina)榕小蜂群落为研究对象, 分别在西双版纳的干季和雨季采集了榕小蜂的种类和数量信息。比较了两个季节榕小蜂群落的动态变化以及共存网络的参数(例如网路直径、连接数、嵌套性和群落矩阵温度)变化。结果显示: 雨季榕果内传粉榕小蜂Eupristina koningsbergeri所占比例高于干季, 传粉榕小蜂的种群数量也高于干季, 而在干季非传粉榕小蜂的种类增加(干季15种小蜂, 雨季14种)。从榕树-传粉榕小蜂互利共生系统的适合度来看, 干季非传粉小蜂的增加对传粉榕小蜂和榕树的适合度是不利的。在干季, 共存网络物种间的连接数(干季0.95, 雨季0.47)多于雨季, 群落矩阵温度(干季23.24, 雨季2.64)也显著高于雨季。表明干季榕小蜂群落组成及种间关系较雨季更为复杂而多样, 高的矩阵温度暗示群落受到的干扰更大。     

Species‐specific responses to climate change and community composition determine future calcification rates of Florida Keys reefs

Anthropogenic climate change compromises reef growth as a result of increasing temperatures and ocean acidification. Scleractinian corals vary in their sensitivity to these variables, suggesting species composition will influence how reef communities respond to future climate change. Because data are lacking for many species, most studies that model future reef growth rely on uniform scleractinian calcification sensitivities to temperature and ocean acidification. To address this knowledge gap, calcification of twelve common and understudied Caribbean coral species was measured for two months under crossed temperatures (27, 30.3 °C) and CO₂ partial pressures (pCO₂) (400, 900, 1300 μatm). Mixed‐effects models of calcification for each species were then used to project community‐level scleractinian calcification using Florida Keys reef composition data and IPCC AR5 ensemble climate model data. Three of the four most abundant species, Orbicella faveolata, Montastraea cavernosa, and Porites astreoides, had negative calcification responses to both elevated temperature and pCO₂. In the business‐as‐usual CO₂ emissions scenario, reefs with high abundances of these species had projected end‐of‐century declines in scleractinian calcification of >50% relative to present‐day rates. Siderastrea siderea, the other most common species, was insensitive to both temperature and pCO₂ within the levels tested here. Reefs dominated by this species had the most stable end‐of‐century growth. Under more optimistic scenarios of reduced CO₂ emissions, calcification rates throughout the Florida Keys declined <20% by 2100. Under the most extreme emissions scenario, projected declines were highly variable among reefs, ranging 10–100%. Without considering bleaching, reef growth will likely decline on most reefs, especially where resistant species like S. siderea are not already dominant. This study demonstrates how species composition influences reef community responses to climate change and how reduced CO₂ emissions can limit future declines in reef calcification.     

Phenological mismatch with trees reduces wildflower carbon budgets

Interacting species can respond differently to climate change, causing unexpected consequences. Many understorey wildflowers in deciduous forests leaf out and flower in the spring when light availability is the highest before overstorey canopy closure. Therefore, different phenological responses by understorey and overstorey species to increased spring temperature could have significant ecological implications. Pairing contemporary data with historical observations initiated by Henry David Thoreau (1850s), we found that overstorey tree leaf out is more responsive to increased spring temperature than understorey wildflower phenology, resulting in shorter periods of high light in the understorey before wildflowers are shaded by tree canopies. Because of this overstorey–understorey mismatch, we estimate that wildflower spring carbon budgets in the northeastern United States were 12–26% larger during Thoreau's era and project a 10–48% reduction during this century. This underappreciated phenomenon may have already reduced wildflower fitness and could lead to future population declines in these ecologically important species.     

The shelled gastropods of the Solitary Islands Marine Park,northern New South Wales,Australia

ABSTRACT

Away from the major population centres, the biodiversity of Australia's shallow coastal marine waters is poorly known. The Tweed-Moreton Bioregion, covering northern New South Wales and south-east Queensland, is both a focus of marine conservation (with three marine parks), and research efforts to predict the effects of climate change through species range extensions and shifts in community composition. Here we provide the first comprehensive list of shallow-water (<30?m) shelled, gastropod macro-molluscs (>5?mm) from the Solitary Islands Marine Park, compiled from a range of sources, including field collections over a 30-year period to 2017. The Cypraeidae (50 spp.), Muricidae (47 spp.) and Conidae (32 spp.) were the most speciose families, accounting for 26% of the total inventory of 500 species from 77 families. A total of 143 species are recorded at their southern limit of distribution on Australia's east coast, most being rare, tropically affiliated taxa found at offshore island sites that receive more frequent contact with the southward-flowing East Australian Current. The inventory confirms the high biodiversity of the Solitary Islands region and the importance of ongoing conservation management.     

Land‐use legacies in a central Appalachian forest: differential response of trees and herbs to historic agricultural practices

Question: Are contemporary herb and tree patterns explained by historic land use practices? If so, are observed vegetation patterns associated with life‐history characteristics, soil properties, or other environmental variables? Location: Southeastern Ohio, USA. Methods: Using archival records, currently forested sites were identified with distinct land use histories: cultivated, pasture (but not plowed), and reference sites which appear to have never been cleared. Trees were recorded by size and species on twenty 20 m × 20 m plots; percent cover was estimated for each herb species in nested 10 m × 10 m plots. Environmental characteristics were noted, and soil samples analysed for nutrient availability and organic matter. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination was performed separately on both tree and herb datasets to graphically characterize community composition among plots. Life‐history traits were investigated to explain observed compositional differences. Results: Vegetation patterns were explained by current environmental gradients, especially by land‐use history. Cultivated and pasture sites had similar tree composition, distinct from reference sites. Herb composition of pasture and reference sites was similar and distinct from cultivated sites, suggesting the ‘tenacity’ of some forest herbs on formerly cleared sites. Tilling removes rhizomatous species, and disfavors species with unassisted dispersal. These life‐history traits were underrepresented on cultivated sites, although ant‐dispersed species were not. Conclusions: Historic land‐use practices accounted for as much variation in species composition as environmental gradients. Furthermore, trees and herbs responded differently to past land‐use practices. Life‐history traits of individual species interact with the nature of disturbance to influence community composition.     

Climate change effects on plant biomass alter dominance patterns and community evenness in an experimental old‐field ecosystem

Atmospheric and climatic change can alter plant biomass production and plant community composition. However, we know little about how climate change‐induced alterations in biomass production affect plant species composition. To better understand how climate change will alter both individual plant species and community biomass, we manipulated atmospheric [CO₂], air temperature, and precipitation in a constructed old‐field ecosystem. Specifically, we compared the responses of dominant and subdominant species to our climatic treatments, and explored how changes in plant dominance patterns alter community evenness over 2 years. Our study resulted in four major findings: (1) all treatments, elevated [CO₂], warming, and increased precipitation increased plant community biomass and the effects were additive rather than interactive, (2) plant species differed in their response to the treatments, resulting in shifts in the proportional biomass of individual species, which altered the plant community composition; however, the plant community response was largely driven by the positive precipitation response of Lespedeza, the most dominant species in the community, (3) precipitation explained most of the variation in plant community composition among treatments, and (4) changes in precipitation caused a shift in the dominant species proportional biomass that resulted in lower community evenness in the wet relative to dry treatments. Interestingly, compositional and evenness responses of the subdominant community to the treatments did not always follow the responses of the whole plant community. Our data suggest that changes in plant dominance patterns and community evenness are an important part of community responses to climatic change, and generally, that such compositional shifts can alter ecosystem biomass production and nutrient inputs.     

The limits to biogeographical distributions: insights from the northward range extension of the marine snail, Kelletia kelletii (Forbes, 1852)

Aim The development of accurate models predicting species range shifts in response to climate change requires studies on the population biology of species whose distributional limits are in the process of shifting. We examine the population biology of an example system using the recent northward range expansion of the marine neogastropod Kelletia kelletii (Forbes, 1852). Location This is a marine coastal shelf neogastropod species whose range extends from Isla Asuncion (Baja California, Mexico) to Monterey (CA, USA). Research sites spanned the extent of the range. Methods We examine abundance distributions and size frequency distributions of K. kelletii for evidence of factors determining historic and contemporary distributional patterns. Population studies were supplemented by historic and contemporary hydrographic data, including seawater temperature data from California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI ) and National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), and seawater circulation data. Results The structure of recently established populations varied dramatically from that of historic populations. Markedly low densities and irregular size frequency distributions characterized recently established populations and suggested only occasionally successful recruitment. The point of transition between historic and recently established populations also corresponded to the location of a gradient in seawater temperature and the confluence of two major oceanic currents. The accumulated data suggest that temperature and/or barriers to dispersal could have set both contemporary patterns in population structure as well as the former northern range limit. Main conclusions Early life stages play a critical role in determining distributional patterns of K. kelletii. Dispersal barriers and temperature limitation are two plausible mechanisms that could determine both contemporary and historic distributional patterns. Future studies on this species should attempt to tease apart the relative importance of these factors in maintaining the populations at the northern edge of the range.     

Contrasting Patterns of Species Richness and Composition of Solitary Wasps and Bees (Insecta: Hymenoptera) According to Land‐use

Several species of arthropods inhabiting forest fragments interact with managed areas. The importance of such areas to biodiversity conservation, however, is not well established. Communities of solitary wasps and bees (Insecta: Hymenoptera) play a key role in agroecosystem functioning and they have been used in studies of biodiversity assessment in different land‐use types. We aimed to assess patterns of species richness and composition of solitary wasps and bees over a 1‐yr period in a gradient of decreasing land‐use intensity formed by pastures, alley croppings, young fallows, and old fallows using trap nests. Old fallows had the highest species richness of wasps and bees, harboring all bee species and 86 percent of wasp species occurring in the region, while the remaining land‐uses had similar species richness. Vegetation structure (tree richness) and relative humidity explained most of the variance for the species richness of wasps. For bees, however, there was no influence of environmental factors on the community among land‐use types, indicating better adaptability of this group to environmental variations related to land‐use. The composition of solitary wasp communities (but not those of bees) differed among land‐use types, and the occurrence of rare species in most cases was restricted to old fallow sites. In conclusion, the community of solitary wasps and bees is contingent on land‐use, with solitary wasps more sensitive to anthropized areas. For both groups, less anthropized areas harbor a greater richness and number of rare species while more intensively managed land‐use types harbor higher abundances.     

Long‐term declines in an intertidal foundation species parallel shifts in community composition

The earth is in the midst of a biodiversity crisis, and projections indicate continuing and accelerating rates of global changes. Future alterations in communities and ecosystems may be precipitated by changes in the abundance of strongly interacting species, whose disappearance can lead to profound changes in abundance of other species, including an increase in extinction rate for some. Nearshore coastal communities are often dependent on the habitat and food resources provided by foundational plant (e.g., kelp) and animal (e.g., shellfish) species. We quantified changes in the abundance of the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), a foundation species known to influence diversity and productivity of intertidal habitats, over the past 40 years in the Gulf of Maine, USA, one of the fastest warming regions in the global ocean. Using consistent survey methods, we compared contemporary population sizes to historical data from sites spanning >400 km. The results of these comparisons showed that blue mussels have declined in the Gulf of Maine by >60% (range: 29–100%) at the site level since the earliest benchmarks in the 1970s. At the same time as mussels declined, community composition shifted: at the four sites with historical community data, the sessile community became increasingly algal dominated. Contemporary (2013–2014) surveys across 20 sites showed that sessile species richness was positively correlated to mussel abundance in mid to high intertidal zones. These results suggest that declines in a critical foundation species may have already impacted the intertidal community. To inform future conservation efforts, we provide a database of historical and contemporary baselines of mussel population abundance and dynamics in the Gulf of Maine. Our results underscore the importance of anticipating not only changes in diversity but also changes in the abundance and identity of component species, as strong interactors like foundation species have the potential to drive cascading community shifts.