Predictive markers for the early prognosis of dengue severity: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundPredictive markers represent a solution for the proactive management of severe dengue. Despite the low mortality rate resulting from severe cases, dengue requires constant examination and round-the-clock nursing care due to the unpredictable progression of complications, posing a burden on clinical triage and material resources. Accordingly, identifying markers that allow for predicting disease prognosis from the initial diagnosis is needed. Given the improved pathogenesis understanding, myriad candidates have been proposed to be associated with severe dengue progression. Thus, we aim to review the relationship between the available biomarkers and severe dengue.MethodologyWe performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the differences in host data collected within 72 hours of fever onset amongst the different disease severity levels. We searched nine bibliographic databases without restrictive criteria of language and publication date. We assessed risk of bias and graded robustness of evidence using NHLBI quality assessments and GRADE, respectively. This study protocol is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018104495).Principal findingsOf 4000 records found, 40 studies for qualitative synthesis, 19 for meta-analysis. We identified 108 host and viral markers collected within 72 hours of fever onset from 6160 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases, including hematopoietic parameters, biochemical substances, clinical symptoms, immune mediators, viral particles, and host genes. Overall, inconsistent case classifications explained substantial heterogeneity, and meta-analyses lacked statistical power. Still, moderate-certainty evidence indicated significantly lower platelet counts (SMD -0.65, 95% CI -0.97 to -0.32) and higher AST levels (SMD 0.87, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.38) in severe cases when compared to non-severe dengue during this time window.ConclusionThe findings suggest that alterations of platelet count and AST level—in the first 72 hours of fever onset—are independent markers predicting the development of severe dengue.     

Is Diabetes a Risk Factor for a Severe Clinical Presentation of Dengue? - Review and Meta-analysis

Background

The mean age of acute dengue has undergone a shift towards older ages. This fact points towards the relevance of assessing the influence of age-related comorbidities, such as diabetes, on the clinical presentation of dengue episodes. Identification of factors associated with a severe presentation is of high relevance, because timely treatment is the most important intervention to avert complications and death. This review summarizes and evaluates the published evidence on the association between diabetes and the risk of a severe clinical presentation of dengue.

Methodology/Findings

A systematic literature review was conducted using the MEDLINE database to access any relevant association between dengue and diabetes. Five case-control studies (4 hospital-based, 1 population-based) compared the prevalence of diabetes (self-reported or abstracted from medical records) of persons with dengue (acute or past; controls) and patients with severe clinical manifestations. All except one study were conducted before 2009 and all studies collected information towards WHO 1997 classification system. The reported odds ratios were formally summarized by random-effects meta-analyses. A diagnosis of diabetes was associated with an increased risk for a severe clinical presentation of dengue (OR 1.75; 95% CI: 1.08–2.84, p = 0.022).

Conclusions/Significance

Large prospective studies that systematically and objectively obtain relevant signs and symptoms of dengue fever episodes as well as of hyperglycemia in the past, and at the time of dengue diagnosis, are needed to properly address the effect of diabetes on the clinical presentation of an acute dengue fever episode. The currently available epidemiological evidence is very limited and only suggestive. The increasing global prevalence of both dengue and diabetes justifies further studies. At this point, confirmation of dengue infection as early as possible in diabetes patients with fever if living in dengue endemic regions seems justified. The presence of this co-morbidity may warrant closer observation for glycemic control and adapted fluid management to diminish the risk for a severe clinical presentation of dengue.     

Clinical and virological study of dengue cases and the members of their households: the multinational DENFRAME Project

Background

Dengue has emerged as the most important vector-borne viral disease in tropical areas. Evaluations of the burden and severity of dengue disease have been hindered by the frequent lack of laboratory confirmation and strong selection bias toward more severe cases.

Methodology

A multinational, prospective clinical study was carried out in South-East Asia (SEA) and Latin America (LA), to ascertain the proportion of inapparent dengue infections in households of febrile dengue cases, and to compare clinical data and biological markers from subjects with various dengue disease patterns. Dengue infection was laboratory-confirmed during the acute phase, by virus isolation and detection of the genome. The four participating reference laboratories used standardized methods.

Principal Findings

Among 215 febrile dengue subjects—114 in SEA and 101 in LA—28 (13.0%) were diagnosed with severe dengue (from SEA only) using the WHO definition. Household investigations were carried out for 177 febrile subjects. Among household members at the time of the first home visit, 39 acute dengue infections were detected of which 29 were inapparent. A further 62 dengue cases were classified at early convalescent phase. Therefore, 101 dengue infections were found among the 408 household members. Adding these together with the 177 Dengue Index Cases, the overall proportion of dengue infections among the study participants was estimated at 47.5% (278/585; 95% CI 43.5–51.6). Lymphocyte counts and detection of the NS1 antigen differed significantly between inapparent and symptomatic dengue subjects; among inapparent cases lymphocyte counts were normal and only 20% were positive for NS1 antigen. Primary dengue infection and a specific dengue virus serotype were not associated with symptomatic dengue infection.

Conclusion

Household investigation demonstrated a high proportion of household members positive for dengue infection, including a number of inapparent cases, the frequency of which was higher in SEA than in LA.     

The Past and Future of Tuberculosis Research

Renewed efforts in tuberculosis (TB) research have led to important new insights into the biology and epidemiology of this devastating disease. Yet, in the face of the modern epidemics of HIV/AIDS, diabetes, and multidrug resistance—all of which contribute to susceptibility to TB—global control of the disease will remain a formidable challenge for years to come. New high-throughput genomics technologies are already contributing to studies of TB''s epidemiology, comparative genomics, evolution, and host–pathogen interaction. We argue here, however, that new multidisciplinary approaches—especially the integration of epidemiology with systems biology in what we call “systems epidemiology”—will be required to eliminate TB.     

Epidemiological Trends of Dengue Disease in Colombia (2000-2011): A Systematic Review

A systematic literature review was conducted to describe the epidemiology of dengue disease in Colombia. Searches of published literature in epidemiological studies of dengue disease encompassing the terms “dengue”, “epidemiology,” and “Colombia” were conducted. Studies in English or Spanish published between 1 January 2000 and 23 February 2012 were included. The searches identified 225 relevant citations, 30 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria defined in the review protocol. The epidemiology of dengue disease in Colombia was characterized by a stable “baseline” annual number of dengue fever cases, with major outbreaks in 2001–2003 and 2010. The geographical spread of dengue disease cases showed a steady increase, with most of the country affected by the 2010 outbreak. The majority of dengue disease recorded during the review period was among those <15 years of age. Gaps identified in epidemiological knowledge regarding dengue disease in Colombia may provide several avenues for future research, namely studies of asymptomatic dengue virus infection, primary versus secondary infections, and under-reporting of the disease. Improved understanding of the factors that determine disease expression and enable improvement in disease control and management is also important.     

Use of Expansion Factors to Estimate the Burden of Dengue in Southeast Asia: A Systematic Analysis

Background

Dengue virus infection is the most common arthropod-borne disease of humans and its geographical range and infection rates are increasing. Health policy decisions require information about the disease burden, but surveillance systems usually underreport the total number of cases. These may be estimated by multiplying reported cases by an expansion factor (EF).

Methods and Findings

As a key step to estimate the economic and disease burden of dengue in Southeast Asia (SEA), we projected dengue cases from 2001 through 2010 using EFs. We conducted a systematic literature review (1995–2011) and identified 11 published articles reporting original, empirically derived EFs or the necessary data, and 11 additional relevant studies. To estimate EFs for total cases in countries where no empirical studies were available, we extrapolated data based on the statistically significant inverse relationship between an index of a country''s health system quality and its observed reporting rate. We compiled an average 386,000 dengue episodes reported annually to surveillance systems in the region, and projected about 2.92 million dengue episodes. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, simultaneously varying the most important parameters in 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and derived 95% certainty level of 2.73–3.38 million dengue episodes. We estimated an overall EF in SEA of 7.6 (95% certainty level: 7.0–8.8) dengue cases for every case reported, with an EF range of 3.8 for Malaysia to 19.0 in East Timor.

Conclusion

Studies that make no adjustment for underreporting would seriously understate the burden and cost of dengue in SEA and elsewhere. As the sites of the empirical studies we identified were not randomly chosen, the exact extent of underreporting remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the results reported here, based on a systematic analysis of the available literature, show general consistency and provide a reasonable empirical basis to adjust for underreporting.     

Serotype-Specific Differences in the Risk of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: An Analysis of Data Collected in Bangkok,Thailand from 1994 to 2006

Background

It is unclear whether dengue serotypes differ in their propensity to cause severe disease. We analyzed differences in serotype-specific disease severity in children presenting for medical attention in Bangkok, Thailand.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Prospective studies were conducted from 1994 to 2006. Univariate and multivariate logistic and multinomial logistic regressions were used to determine if dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and signs of severe clinical disease (pleural effusion, ascites, thrombocytopenia, hemoconcentration) were associated with serotype. Crude and adjusted odds ratios were calculated. There were 162 (36%) cases with DENV-1, 102 (23%) with DENV-2, 123 (27%) with DENV-3, and 64 (14%) with DENV-4. There was no significant difference in the rates of DHF by serotype: DENV-2 (43%), DENV-3 (39%), DENV-1 (34%), DENV-4 (31%). DENV-2 was significantly associated with increased odds of DHF grade I compared to DF (OR 2.9 95% CI 1.1, 8.0), when using DENV-1 as the reference. Though not statistically significant, DENV-2 had an increased odds of total DHF and DHF grades II, III, and IV. Secondary serologic response was significantly associated with DHF (OR 6.2) and increased when considering more severe grades of DHF. DENV-2 (9%) and -4 (3%) were significantly less often associated with primary disease than DENV-1 (28%) and -3 (33%). Restricting analysis to secondary cases, we found DENV-2 and DENV-3 to be twice as likely to result in DHF as DEN-4 (p = 0.05). Comparing study years, we found the rate of DHF to be significantly less in 1999, 2000, 2004, and 2005 than in 1994, the study year with the highest percentage of DHF cases, even when controlling for other variables.

Conclusions/Significance

As in other studies, we find secondary disease to be strongly associated with DHF and with more severe grades of DHF. DENV-2 appears to be marginally associated with more severe dengue disease as evidenced by a significant association with DHF grade I when compared to DENV-1. In addition, we found non-significant trends with other grades of DHF. Restricting the analysis to secondary disease we found DENV-2 and -3 to be twice as likely to result in DHF as DEN-4. Differences in severity by study year may suggest that other factors besides serotype play a role in disease severity.     

Economic and Disease Burden of Dengue in Southeast Asia

Background

Dengue poses a substantial economic and disease burden in Southeast Asia (SEA). Quantifying this burden is critical to set policy priorities and disease-control strategies.

Methods and Findings

We estimated the economic and disease burden of dengue in 12 countries in SEA: Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, East-Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam. We obtained reported cases from multiple sources—surveillance data, World Health Organization (WHO), and published studies—and adjusted for underreporting using expansion factors from previous literature. We obtained unit costs per episode through a systematic literature review, and completed missing data using linear regressions. We excluded costs such as prevention and vector control, and long-term sequelae of dengue. Over the decade of 2001–2010, we obtained an annual average of 2.9 million (m) dengue episodes and 5,906 deaths. The annual economic burden (with 95% certainty levels) was US$950m (US$610m–US$1,384m) or about US$1.65 (US$1.06–US$2.41) per capita. The annual number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on the original 1994 definition, was 214,000 (120,000–299,000), which is equivalent to 372 (210–520) DALYs per million inhabitants.

Conclusion

Dengue poses a substantial economic and disease burden in SEA with a DALY burden per million inhabitants in the region. This burden is higher than that of 17 other conditions, including Japanese encephalitis, upper respiratory infections, and hepatitis B.     

Sensitivity and Specificity of the World Health Organization Dengue Classification Schemes for Severe Dengue Assessment in Children in Rio de Janeiro

Background

The clinical definition of severe dengue fever remains a challenge for researchers in hyperendemic areas like Brazil. The ability of the traditional (1997) as well as the revised (2009) World Health Organization (WHO) dengue case classification schemes to detect severe dengue cases was evaluated in 267 children admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed dengue.

Principal Findings

Using the traditional scheme, 28.5% of patients could not be assigned to any category, while the revised scheme categorized all patients. Intensive therapeutic interventions were used as the reference standard to evaluate the ability of both the traditional and revised schemes to detect severe dengue cases. Analyses of the classified cases (n = 183) demonstrated that the revised scheme had better sensitivity (86.8%, P<0.001), while the traditional scheme had better specificity (93.4%, P<0.001) for the detection of severe forms of dengue.

Conclusions/Significance

This improved sensitivity of the revised scheme allows for better case capture and increased ICU admission, which may aid pediatricians in avoiding deaths due to severe dengue among children, but, in turn, it may also result in the misclassification of the patients'' condition as severe, reflected in the observed lower positive predictive value (61.6%, P<0.001) when compared with the traditional scheme (82.6%, P<0.001). The inclusion of unusual dengue manifestations in the revised scheme has not shifted the emphasis from the most important aspects of dengue disease and the major factors contributing to fatality in this study: shock with consequent organ dysfunction.     

Health Seeking Behaviour and Treatment Intentions of Dengue and Fever: A Household Survey of Children and Adults in Venezuela

Background

Dengue in Venezuela is a major public health problem with an increasing incidence of severe cases. Early diagnosis and timely treatment influences the outcome of dengue illness, as delay in care-seeking is significantly associated with complications leading to severe dengue. We aimed to understand patterns of health seeking behaviour (HSB) in individuals exposed to high dengue incidence in order to improve early attendance to health centres.

Methods

Between September 2013 and February 2014 a cross-sectional household survey was performed in Maracay, Venezuela. Intended HSB of adults and children’s parents/guardians was assessed with respect to fever or suspected dengue. Data was collected through structured questionnaires from 105 individuals.

Results

Most individuals felt at risk of dengue and believed it could be a deadly disease. In the case of suspected dengue, the majority (60%) would choose to first seek medical help versus first treating at home, in contrast to 11% in the case of fever. Amongst those who decided to visit a doctor, a suspected dengue infection would prompt them to search medical help earlier than if having only fever (p<0.001). Multivariate analysis modelling showed that the independent factors associated with the intention to firstly visit a doctor versus treating at home in the case of dengue were feeling at risk (OR = 3.29; p = 0.042) and being an adult (as opposed to caring for a child as a parent/guardian; OR = 3.33, p = 0.021), while having had a previous dengue infection (OR = 0.29; p = 0.031) and living in the neighbourhood Caña de Azúcar (OR = 0.28, p = 0.038) were negatively associated with seeking medical care as their first action.

Conclusion

Knowledge of HSB related to dengue is scarce in the Americas, our study attempts to contribute to a better understanding of HSB in this region. Improving early dengue disease recognition and awareness may enhance prompt attendance to medical care in affected populations and thereby reduce mortality and severity of dengue. Especially for those with a previous dengue infection, efforts have to be made to promote prompt health centre attendance.     

Short-term,medium-term,and long-term risks of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding after dengue virus infection

Dengue patients have an increased risk of acute gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. However, whether dengue virus (DENV) infection can cause an increased long-term risk of GI bleeding remains unknown, especially among elderly individuals who commonly take antithrombotic drugs. A retrospective population-based cohort study was conducted by analyzing the National Health Insurance Research Databases. Laboratory-confirmed dengue patients from 2002 to 2012 and four matched nondengue controls were identified. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate the acute (<30 days), medium-term (31–365 days), and long-term (>365 days) risks of nonvariceal upper GI bleeding after DENV infection. Stratified analyses by age group (≤50, 51–64, ≥65 years old) were also performed. In total, 13267 confirmed dengue patients and 53068 nondengue matched controls were included. After adjusting for sex, age, area of residence, comorbidities, and medications, dengue patients had a significantly increased risk of nonvariceal upper GI bleeding within 30 days of disease onset (adjusted HR 55.40; 95% CI: 32.17–95.42). However, DENV infection was not associated with increased medium-term and long-term risks of upper GI bleeding overall or in each age group. Even dengue patients who developed acute GI bleeding did not have increased medium-term (adjusted HR; 0.55, 95% CI 0.05–6.18) and long-term risks of upper GI bleeding (adjusted HR; 1.78, 95% CI 0.89–3.55). DENV infection was associated with a significantly increased risk of nonvariceal upper GI bleeding within 30 days but not thereafter. Recovered dengue patients with acute GI bleeding can resume antithrombotic treatments to minimize the risk of thrombosis.     

Community-Effectiveness of Temephos for Dengue Vector Control: A Systematic Literature Review

The application of the organophosphate larvicide temephos to water storage containers is one of the most commonly employed dengue vector control methods. This systematic literature review is to the knowledge of the authors the first that aims to assess the community-effectiveness of temephos in controlling both vectors and dengue transmission when delivered either as a single intervention or in combination with other interventions. A comprehensive literature search of 6 databases was performed (PubMed, WHOLIS, GIFT, CDSR, EMBASE, Wiley), grey literature and cross references were also screened for relevant studies. Data were extracted and methodological quality of the studies was assessed independently by two reviewers. 27 studies were included in this systematic review (11 single intervention studies and 16 combined intervention studies). All 11 single intervention studies showed consistently that using temephos led to a reduction in entomological indices. Although 11 of the 16 combined intervention studies showed that temephos application together with other chemical vector control methods also reduced entomological indices, this was either not sustained over time or–as in the five remaining studies—failed to reduce the immature stages. The community-effectiveness of temephos was found to be dependent on factors such as quality of delivery, water turnover rate, type of water, and environmental factors such as organic debris, temperature and exposure to sunlight. Timing of temephos deployment and its need for reapplication, along with behavioural factors such as the reluctance of its application to drinking water, and operational aspects such as cost, supplies, time and labour were further limitations identified in this review. In conclusion, when applied as a single intervention, temephos was found to be effective at suppressing entomological indices, however, the same effect has not been observed when temephos was applied in combination with other interventions. There is no evidence to suggest that temephos use is associated with reductions in dengue transmission.     

Interferon Gamma +874T/A Polymorphism Increases the Risk of Hepatitis Virus-Related Diseases: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis

BackgroundInterferon gamma (IFN-γ) is a key regulatory cytokine, which plays an important role in antiviral defense of an infected host. However, the association between the IFN-γ +874T/A gene polymorphism and hepatitis virus-related diseases is heterogeneous.MethodsBased on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses statement, a comprehensive literature search of eligible studies in Embase, Pubmed, and the Cochrane Library was undertaken through November 2014. Odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to measure the strength of the models.ResultsSeventeen case-control articles, including 24 studies with 5503 individuals, met the inclusion criteria. The results indicated a statistically significant association between the IFN-γ +874T/A polymorphism and hepatitis virus—related diseases in a recessive gene model (AA vs. TT+TA: OR=1.350, 95% CI=1.101-1.657, P=0.004, I²%=54.3, and P_Q=0.001 for heterogeneity), especially in Asians (OR=1.407, 95% CI=1.035-1.911, P=0.029, I²%=61.9, and P_Q=0.005 for heterogeneity) and hepatitis B virus (HBV)–related disease (OR=1.486, 95% CI=1.195–1.849, P=0.000, I²%=40.4, and P_Q=0.053 for heterogeneity).ConclusionsThe evidence suggests that the IFN-γ +874T/A polymorphism increases the risk of hepatitis virus—related diseases, especially in Asians and HBV—related diseases. Further studies on this topic in different ethnicities, especially genome-wide association studies, should be conducted to strengthen our results.     

Self-Reported Pain Intensity with the Numeric Reporting Scale in Adult Dengue

Background

Pain is a prominent feature of acute dengue as well as a clinical criterion in World Health Organization guidelines in diagnosing dengue. We conducted a prospective cohort study to compare levels of pain during acute dengue between different ethnicities and dengue severity.

Methods

Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected. Data on self-reported pain was collected using the 11-point Numerical Rating Scale. Generalized structural equation models were built to predict progression to severe disease.

Results

A total of 499 laboratory confirmed dengue patients were recruited in the Prospective Adult Dengue Study at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore. We found no statistically significant differences between pain score with age, gender, ethnicity or the presence of co-morbidity. Pain score was not predictive of dengue severity but highly correlated to patients’ day of illness. Prevalence of abdominal pain in our cohort was 19%. There was no difference in abdominal pain score between grades of dengue severity.

Conclusion

Dengue is a painful disease. Patients suffer more pain at the earlier phase of illness. However, pain score cannot be used to predict a patient’s progression to severe disease.     

A retrospective study on the socio-demographic factors and clinical parameters of dengue disease and their effects on the clinical course and recovery of the patients in a tertiary care hospital of Bangladesh

Dengue, a mosquito transmitted febrile viral disease, is a serious public health concern in Bangladesh. Despite significant number of incidences and reported deaths each year, there are inadequate number of studies relating the temporal trends of the clinical parameters as well as socio-demographic factors with the clinical course of the disease. Therefore, this study aims to associate the clinical parameters, demographic and behavioral factors of the dengue patients admitted in a tertiary care hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh during the 2019 outbreak of dengue with the clinical course of the disease. Data were collected from the 336 confirmed dengue in-patients and analyzed using SPSS 26.0 software. Majority of the patients were male (2.2 times higher than female) who required longer time to recover compared to females (p < 0.01), urban resident (54.35%) and belonged to the age group of 18–40 years (73.33%). Dengue fever (90.77%) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (5.95%) were reported in most of the dengue patients while fever (98%) was the most frequently observed symptom. A significantly positive association was found between patient’s age and number of manifested symptoms (p = 0.013). Average duration of stay in the hospital was 4.9 days (SD = 1.652) and patient’s recovery time was positively correlated with delayed hospitalization (p < 0.01). Additionally, recovery time was negatively correlated with initial blood pressure (both systolic (p = 0.001, and diastolic (p = 0.023)) and platelet count (p = 0.003) of the patients recorded on the first day of hospitalization. Finally, a statistical model was developed which predicted that, hospital stay could be positively associated with an increasing trend of temperature, systolic blood pressure and reduced platelets count. Findings of this study may be beneficial to better understand the clinical course of the disease, identify the potential risk factors and ensure improved patient management during future dengue outbreaks.     

Land use and land cover change and its impacts on dengue dynamics in China: A systematic review

BackgroundDengue is a prioritized public health concern in China. Because of the larger scale, more frequent and wider spatial distribution, the challenge for dengue prevention and control has increased in recent years. While land use and land cover (LULC) change was suggested to be associated with dengue, relevant research has been quite limited. The “Open Door” policy introduced in 1978 led to significant LULC change in China. This systematic review is the first to review the studies on the impacts of LULC change on dengue dynamics in China. This review aims at identifying the research evidence, research gaps and provide insights for future research.MethodsA systematic literature review was conducted following the PRISMA protocol. The combinations of search terms on LULC, dengue and its vectors were searched in the databases PubMed, Web of Science, and Baidu Scholar. Research conducted on China published from 1978 to December 2019 and written in English or Chinese was selected for further screening. References listed in articles meeting the inclusion criteria were also reviewed and included if again inclusion criteria were met to minimize the probability of missing relevant research.Results28 studies published between 1978 and 2017 were included for the full review. Guangdong Province and southern Taiwan were the major regional foci in the literature. The majority of the reviewed studies observed associations between LULC change factors and dengue incidence and distribution. Conflictive evidence was shown in the studies about the impacts of green space and blue space on dengue in China. Transportation infrastructure and urbanization were repeatedly suggested to be positively associated with dengue incidence and spread. The majority of the studies reviewed considered meteorological and sociodemographic factors when they analyzed the effects of LULC change on dengue. Primary and secondary remote sensing (RS) data were the primary source for LULC variables. In 21 of 28 studies, a geographic information system (GIS) was used to process data of environmental variables and dengue cases and to perform spatial analysis of dengue.ConclusionsThe effects of LULC change on the dynamics of dengue in China varied in different periods and regions. The application of RS and GIS enriches the means and dimensions to explore the relations between LULC change and dengue. Further comprehensive regional research is necessary to assess the influence of LULC change on local dengue transmission to provide practical advice for dengue prevention and control.     

Cytokine Expression Profile of Dengue Patients at Different Phases of Illness

Background

Dengue is an important medical problem, with symptoms ranging from mild dengue fever to severe forms of the disease, where vascular leakage leads to hypovolemic shock. Cytokines have been implicated to play a role in the progression of severe dengue disease; however, their profile in dengue patients and the synergy that leads to continued plasma leakage is not clearly understood. Herein, we investigated the cytokine kinetics and profiles of dengue patients at different phases of illness to further understand the role of cytokines in dengue disease.

Methods and Findings

Circulating levels of 29 different types of cytokines were assessed by bead-based ELISA method in dengue patients at the 3 different phases of illness. The association between significant changes in the levels of cytokines and clinical parameters were analyzed. At the febrile phase, IP-10 was significant in dengue patients with and without warning signs. However, MIP-1β was found to be significant in only patients with warning signs at this phase. IP-10 was also significant in both with and without warning signs patients during defervescence. At this phase, MIP-1β and G-CSF were significant in patients without warning signs, whereas MCP-1 was noted to be elevated significantly in patients with warning signs. Significant correlations between the levels of VEGF, RANTES, IL-7, IL-12, PDGF and IL-5 with platelets; VEGF with lymphocytes and neutrophils; G-CSF and IP-10 with atypical lymphocytes and various other cytokines with the liver enzymes were observed in this study.

Conclusions

The cytokine profile patterns discovered between the different phases of illness indicate an essential role in dengue pathogenesis and with further studies may serve as predictive markers for progression to dengue with warning signs.     

Maternal Antibody-Mediated Disease Enhancement in Type I Interferon-Deficient Mice Leads to Lethal Disease Associated with Liver Damage

Epidemiological studies have reported that most of the severe dengue cases occur upon a secondary heterologous infection. Furthermore, babies born to dengue immune mothers are at greater risk of developing severe disease upon primary infection with a heterologous or homologous dengue virus (DENV) serotype when maternal antibodies reach sub-neutralizing concentrations. These observations have been explained by the antibody mediated disease enhancement (ADE) phenomenon whereby heterologous antibodies or sub-neutralizing homologous antibodies bind to but fail to neutralize DENV particles, allowing Fc-receptor mediated entry of the virus-antibody complexes into host cells. This eventually results in enhanced viral replication and heightened inflammatory responses. In an attempt to replicate this ADE phenomenon in a mouse model, we previously reported that upon DENV2 infection 5-week old type I and II interferon (IFN) receptors-deficient mice (AG129) born to DENV1-immune mothers displayed enhancement of disease severity characterized by increased virus titers and extensive vascular leakage which eventually led to the animals’ death. However, as dengue occurs in immune competent individuals, we sought to reproduce this mouse model in a less immunocompromised background. Here, we report an ADE model that is mediated by maternal antibodies in type I IFN receptor-deficient A129 mice. We show that 5-week old A129 mice born to DENV1-immune mothers succumbed to a DENV2 infection within 4 days that was sub-lethal in mice born to naïve mothers. Clinical manifestations included extensive hepatocyte vacuolation, moderate vascular leakage, lymphopenia, and thrombocytopenia. Anti-TNFα therapy totally protected the mice and correlated with healthy hepatocytes. In contrast, blocking IL-6 did not impact the virus titers or disease outcome. This A129 mouse model of ADE may help dissecting the mechanisms involved in dengue pathogenesis and evaluate the efficacy of vaccine and therapeutic candidates.     

Simple clinical and laboratory predictors to improve empirical treatment strategies in areas of high scrub typhus and dengue endemicity,central Vietnam

BackgroundDengue fever is highly endemic in Vietnam, but scrub typhus—although recognized as an endemic disease—remains underappreciated. These diseases together are likely to account for more than half of the acute undifferentiated fever burden in Vietnam. Scrub typhus (ST) is a bacterial disease requiring antimicrobial treatment, while dengue fever (DF) is of viral etiology and does not. The access to adequate diagnostics and the current understanding of empirical treatment strategies for both illnesses remain limited. In this study we aimed to contribute to the clinical decision process in the management of these two important etiologies of febrile illness in Vietnam.MethodsUsing retrospective data from 221 PCR-confirmed scrub typhus cases and 387 NS1 protein positive dengue fever patients admitted to five hospitals in Khanh Hoa province (central Vietnam), we defined predictive characteristics for both diseases that support simple clinical decision making with potential to inform decision algorithms in future. We developed models to discriminate scrub typhus from dengue fever using multivariable logistic regression (M-LR) and classification and regression trees (CART). Regression trees were developed for the entire data set initially and pruned, based on cross-validation. Regression models were developed in a training data set involving 60% of the total sample and validated in the complementary subsample. Probability cut points for the distinction between scrub typhus and dengue fever were chosen to maximise the sum of sensitivity and specificity.ResultsUsing M-LR, following seven predictors were identified, that reliably differentiate ST from DF; eschar, regional lymphadenopathy, an occupation in nature, increased days of fever on admission, increased neutrophil count, decreased ratio of neutrophils/lymphocytes, and age over 40. Sensitivity and specificity of predictions based on these seven factors reached 93.7% and 99.5%, respectively. When excluding the “eschar” variable, the values dropped to 76.3% and 92.3%, respectively.The CART model generated one further variable; increased days of fever on admission, when eschar was included, the sensitivity and specificity was 95% and 96.9%, respectively. The model without eschar involved the following six variables; regional lymphadenopathy, increased days of fever on admission, increased neutrophil count, increased lymphocyte count, platelet count ≥ 47 G/L and age over 28 years as predictors of ST and provided a sensitivity of 77.4% and a specificity of 90.7%.ConclusionsThe generated algorithms contribute to differentiating scrub typhus from dengue fever using basic clinical and laboratory parameters, supporting clinical decision making in areas where dengue and scrub typhus are co-endemic in Vietnam.