Stomach cancer incidence trends in selected Latin America countries: Age,period, and birth-cohort effects

Backgroundto explore the age, period, and birth-cohort effects on stomach cancer incidence trends during 3 decades in selected Latin American countries.Methodsa time-trend study was performed using Cancer Incidence in Five Continents data from high-quality population-based cancer registries(PBCRs) in Latin American countries. Crude and age-standardized incidence rates(ASRIs) were calculated. Time trends in ASRIs were assessed using the average annual percentage change(AAPC). Age-period-cohort effects were estimated by Poisson regression for individuals aged between 20 and 79 years with stomach cancer informed by PBCRs from 1983 to 2012 in Cali(Colombia); from 1982 to 2011 in Costa Rica; and from 1988 to 2012 for Goiania(Brazil) and Quito(Ecuador). The goodness-of-fit model was tested using the deviance of the models.Resultsa decrease in age-standardized incidence rates was observed for both genders in all populations covered by PBCRs, except for young men from Cali(AAPC 3.89 95 %IC: 1.32–7.29). The age effect was statistically significant in all areas, and the curve slope reached peaks in the older age groups. The cohort effect was observed in all PBCRs. Regarding the period effect, an increased ratio rate was observed for both genders in Costa Rica(1997–2001 women RR 1.11 95 %CI: 1.05–1.17; men RR 1.12 95 %CI: 1.08–1.17) and Goiânia(2003–2007 women RR 1.21 95 %CI: 1.08–1.35; men RR 1.09 95 %CI: 1.01–1.20), while Quito(1998–2002 women RR 0.89 95 %CI: 0.81–0.98; men RR 0.86 95 %CI: 0.79–0.93) presented a decrease.Conclusionthe present study showed a decreasing gastric cancer trend for over the past 30 years with gender and geographic variations. Such a decrease seems to be mainly a result of cohort effects, suggesting that the economic market opening process led to changes in the risk factor exposures over successive generations. These geographic and gender variations may reflect cultural/ethnic/gender differences and differences in dietary and smoking rate patterns. However, an increased incidence was observed for young men in Cali, and additional studies are needed to determine the cause of the increasing incidence in this group.     

Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence Rates,Oklahoma 2005–2010

Purpose

Lung cancer is the second most frequently diagnosed cancer among men and women in the United States. With cigarette smoking causing the majority of cases, patterns in lung cancer are often monitored to understand the impact of anti-tobacco efforts. The purpose of this research was to investigate trends in lung cancer incidence rates for the period 2005–2010 in Oklahoma.

Methods

Data on Oklahoma’s incident cases of lung cancer (2005–2010) were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER system. Annual percent change (APC) was calculated by linear regression to characterize trends in lung cancer incidence rates over time for the overall population, by gender, by age group, and by age group within gender. Rates were considered to increase or decrease if the p-value for trend was <0.05.

Results

From 2005 through 2010, lung cancer incidence rates declined from 81.96 to 68.19 per 100,000 population, with an APC of -3.58% (p-value: 0.0220). When subgroups were examined, declines were observed among all males (APC: -4.25%; p-value: 0.0270), males <65 years (APC: -5.32%; p-value: 0.0008), females <65 years (APC: -4.85%; p-value: 0.0044), and persons aged 55–64 years (APC: -6.38%; p-value: 0.0017).

Conclusions

Declines in lung cancer incidence rates occurred during 2005–2010 among the overall population and within select demographic groups in Oklahoma. Although trends were stable for several demographic groups, rates of lung cancer incidence were lower in 2010 compared to 2005. Continued evidence-based tobacco control efforts are needed to ensure further reductions in lung cancer incidence rates in the state of Oklahoma.     

Trends in incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Switzerland: Possible explanations and open questions

BackgroundUsing US population-level data, it has been suggested that novel treatment advances, particularly targeted therapies, have contributed to a sharp fall in NSCLC mortality.Switzerland is a high-income country, with a universal, highly performant health care system, easy access to novel drugs but with different dynamics concerning the smoking epidemic than the US.MethodsWe use population-based data from Swiss cancer registries to analyze the trends in incidence, mortality and survival and relate them to recent drug approvals.ResultsThe incidence of NSCLC and SCLC was stable from 1980 to 2018. We noted an important difference between sexes, with an important decrease in men and increase in women, especially for NSCLC. 1-y and 5-y survival have improved for NSCLC between 2004 and 2008 and 2014–2018.ConclusionThese findings should be regarded as the results of a multifactorial improvement in care and it is difficult for us to pinpoint a unique cause explaining the reduction in mortality     

Incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer on a rapid rise in Taiwan, 1999–2012

BackgroundAccumulating data has revealed a rapidly rising incidence of pancreatic cancer in Western countries, but convincing evidence from the East remains sparse. We aimed to quantify how the incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy changed over time in Taiwan, and to develop future projection for the next decade.MethodsThis nationwide population-based study analyzed the Taiwan National Cancer Registry and the National Cause of Death Registry to calculate the annual incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic malignancy from 1999 to 2012 in this country. The secular trend of the incidence was also examined by data from the National Health Insurance Research Database.ResultsA total of 21,986 incident cases of pancreatic cancer and 20,720 related deaths occurred during the study period. The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 3.7 per 100,000 in 1999 to 5.0 per 100,000 in 2012, with a significant rising trend (P < 0.01). The increase was nationwide, consistently across subgroups stratified by age, gender, geographic region, and urbanization. Data from the National Health Insurance Research Database corroborated the rise of incident pancreatic cancer. Mortality also increased with time, with the age-standardized rate rising from 3.5 per 100,000 in 1999 to 4.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (P < 0.01). In accordance with the incidence, the mortality trend was consistent in all subgroups. Both the incidence and mortality were projected to further increase by approximately 20% from 2012 to 2027.ConclusionThe incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer have been rapidly rising and presumably will continue to rise in Taiwan.     

Modelling lung cancer mortality rates from smoking prevalence: Fill in the gap

BackgroundThe objective of this study is to estimate the gap between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality and provide predictions of lung cancer mortality based on previous smoking prevalence.Materials and methodsWe used data from the Spanish National Health Surveys (2003, 2006 and 2011) to obtain information about tobacco use and data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute to obtain cancer mortality rates from 1980 to 2013. We calculated the cross-correlation among the historical series of smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality rate (LCMR) to estimate the most likely time gap between both series. We also predicted the magnitude and timing of the LCMR peak.ResultsAll cross-correlations were statistically significant and positive (all above 0.8). For men, the most likely gap ranges from 20 to 34 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 3.2 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 29 years earlier. The highest rate for men was observed in 1995 (55.6 deaths). For women, the most likely gap ranges from 10 to 37 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 0.28 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 32 years earlier. The maximum rate is expected to occur in 2026 (10.3 deaths).ConclusionThe time series of prevalence of tobacco smoking explains the mortality from lung cancer with a distance (or gap) of around 30 years. According to the lagged smoking prevalence, the lung cancer mortality among men is declining while in women continues to rise (maximum expected in 2026).     

Young adult cancer incidence trends in Taiwan and the U.S. from 2002 to 2016

BackgroundPrevious studies have not examined young adult cancer incidence trends in Taiwan, or comprehensively compared these trends at two nations with different population genetics, environmental exposures, and health care. Therefore, we compared the incidence rates and trends of the most common young adult cancers diagnosed at 20–39 years of age in Taiwan and the U.S.MethodsIncidence rates from 2002 to 2016 were calculated from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Datasets and the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. For trend assessment, average annual percent change (AAPC) values were calculated from 15 years of data using Joinpoint Regression Program. We also obtained sex or age of diagnosis stratified estimates.ResultsThe age-standardized overall young adult cancer incidence rate significantly increased from 2002 to 2016 in both Taiwan (AAPC=1.1%, 95% CI: 0.8–1.5%) and the U.S. (AAPC=1.8%, 95% CI: 1.1–2.4%). Cancers with significantly decreasing trends in Taiwan included cancers of the nasopharynx, liver, and tongue, which were not among the most common young adult cancers in the U.S. Cancers with significantly increasing trends in both Taiwan and the U.S. included colorectal, thyroid, and female breast cancers. Lymphoma, ovarian cancer, and lung and bronchus cancer had significantly increasing trends in Taiwan but not in the U.S. Although cervical cancer had significantly decreasing trends in both nations among those 30–39 years of age, its trend was significantly increasing in Taiwan but decreasing in the U.S. among those 20–29 years of age.ConclusionThe types of common young adult cancers as well as their incidence rates and trends differed in Taiwan and the U.S. Future studies should further understand the etiological factors driving these trends.     

Modeling the Natural History and Detection of Lung Cancer Based on Smoking Behavior

In this study, we developed a method for modeling the progression and detection of lung cancer based on the smoking behavior at an individual level. The model allows obtaining the characteristics of lung cancer in a population at the time of diagnosis. Lung cancer data from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database collected between 2004 and 2008 were used to fit the lung cancer progression and detection model. The fitted model combined with a smoking based carcinogenesis model was used to predict the distribution of age, gender, tumor size, disease stage and smoking status at diagnosis and the results were validated against independent data from the SEER database collected from 1988 to 1999. The model accurately predicted the gender distribution and median age of LC patients of diagnosis, and reasonably predicted the joint tumor size and disease stage distribution.     

Biologically based analysis of the data for the Colorado uranium miners cohort: age, dose and dose-rate effects.

This study is a comprehensive analysis of the latest follow-up of the Colorado uranium miners cohort using the two-stage clonal expansion model with particular emphasis on effects related to age and exposure. The model provides a framework in which the hazard function for lung cancer mortality incorporates detailed information on exposure to radon and radon progeny from hard rock and uranium mining together with information on cigarette smoking. Even though the effect of smoking on lung cancer risk is explicitly modeled, a significant birth cohort effect is found which shows a linear increase in the baseline lung cancer risk with birth year of the miners in the cohort. The analysis based on the two-stage clonal expansion model suggests that exposure to radon affects both the rate of initiation of intermediate cells in the pathway to cancer and the rate of proliferation of intermediate cells. However, in contrast to the promotional effect of radon, which is highly significant, the effect of radon on the rate of initiation is found to be not significant. The model is also used to study the inverse dose-rate effect. This effect is evident for radon exposures typical for mines but is predicted to be attenuated, and for longer exposures even reversed, for the more protracted and lower radon exposures in homes. The model also predicts the drop in risk with time after exposure ceases. For residential exposures, lung cancer risks are compared with the estimates from the BEIR VI report. While the risk estimates are in agreement with those derived from residential studies, they are about two- to fourfold lower than those reported in the BEIR VI report.     

Population-based incidence of lymphoid neoplasms: Twenty years of epidemiological data in the Girona province,Spain

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to describe incidence patterns of lymphoid neoplasms in the Girona province (Spain) (1996–2015), and to predict the number of cases in Spain during 2020.MethodsData were extracted from the Girona cancer registry. Incident cases were classified using the ICD-O-3, third revision, and grouped according to the WHO 2008 classification scheme. Age-adjusted incidence rates to the European standard population (ASRE) were estimated and incidence trends were modeled using Joinpoint.Results4367 lymphoid neoplasms were diagnosed in the Girona province. The ASRE for overall lymphoma was 37.1 (95% CI: 36.0; 38.2), with a marked male predominance in almost all subtypes. During 1996–2015, incidence trends remained stable for broader lymphoma categories. According to our predictions, 17,950 new cases of LNs will be diagnosed in Spain in 2020.ConclusionsThis ‘real-world’ data will provide valuable information to better inform etiological hypotheses and plan future health-care services.     

Burden of cancer attributable to tobacco smoking in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 2012

BackgroundCancer is an increasing problem in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Tobacco use is a well-established risk factor for many types of cancers. Evidence on burden of cancer attributable to tobacco is essential to raise public and political awareness of the negative effects of tobacco on cancer and to be used to stimulate political action aims at reducing smoking prevalence in ASEAN member countries. The objective of this study was to estimate burden of cancer attributable to tobacco smoking in ASEAN, 2012.MethodsIn this study, smoking prevalence was combined with Relative Risks (RRs) of cancer to obtain Smoking Attributable Fractions (SAFs). Cancer incidence and mortality data among individuals aged 15 years and older were derived from GLOBOCAN 2012. Fourteen types of cancer were included in the analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the impact of the use of alternative RRs and the use of alternative prevalence of smoking in some countries.ResultsThe findings showed that tobacco smoking was responsible for 131,502 cancer incidence and 105,830 cancer mortality in ASEAN countries in 2012. In other words, tobacco smoking was accounted for 28.4% (43.3% in male and 8.5% in female) of cancer incidence and 30.5% (44.2% in male and 9.4% in female) of cancer mortality in ASEAN. When looking at the types of cancer, lung cancer showed the strongest association with tobacco smoking. Incidence of cancer and cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking varied by countries due to the differences in size of population, background risk of cancer, and prevalence of smoking in each country. According to the sensitivity analyses, RRs of lung cancer, pharynx cancer, and larynx cancer used in the estimates have significant impact on the estimates.ConclusionsAs about one-third of cancer incidence and mortality in ASEAN are attributable to tobacco smoking ASEAN member countries are strongly encouraged to put in place stronger tobacco control policies and to strengthen the existing tobacco control measure in order to effectively control cancer.     

A nested case-control study of lung cancer risk and ionizing radiation exposure at the portsmouth naval shipyard

Results have been inconsistent between studies of lung cancer risk and ionizing radiation exposures among workers at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS). The purpose of this nested case-control study was to evaluate the relationship between lung cancer risk and external ionizing radiation exposure while adjusting for potential confounders that included gender, radiation monitoring status, smoking habit surrogates (socioeconomic status and birth cohort), welding fumes and asbestos. By incidence density sampling, we age-matched 3,291 controls selected from a cohort of 37,853 civilian workers employed at PNS between 1952 and 1992 with 1,097 lung cancer deaths from among the same cohort. Analyses using conditional logistic regression were conducted in various model forms: log-linear (main), linear excess relative risk (ERR), and categorical. Lung cancer risk was positively associated with occupational dose (OR = 1.02 at 10 mSv; 95% CI 0.99- 1.04) but flattened after the inclusion of work-related medical X-ray doses (OR = 1.00; 95% CI 0.98-1.03) in multivariate analyses. Similar risk estimates were observed in the linear ERR model at 10 mSv of cumulative exposure with a 15-year lag.     

Trends in breast and cervical cancer in India under National Cancer Registry Programme: An Age-Period-Cohort analysis

BackgroundTrend analysis in cancer quantifies the incidence rate and explains the trend and pattern. Breast and cervical cancers are the two most common cancers among Indian women which contributed 39.4 % to the total cancer in India for the year 2020. This study aimed to report the time trends in cancer incidence of breast and cervical cancer using Age–Period–Cohort (APC) model from five Population Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs) in India for the period of 1985–2014.MethodAge-Period-Cohort model was fitted to five PBCRs of Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal and Barshi rural for breast and cervical cancer for 25−74 age-groups. The Estimated Annual Percent Change (EAPC) was calculated. Rate Ratio (RR) of cohort effects were estimated with a constraint of period slope to be zero (p = 0) since cohort has a stronger association with incidence than period.ResultA significant increase was noted in breast cancer in all PBCRs (EAPC, Range: Delhi, 1.2 % to Bangalore, 2.7 %) while significant decrease in cervical cancer (EAPC, Range: Bangalore -2.5 % to Chennai, -4.6 %) from all the PBCRs including Barshi rural during the period. RR estimates for breast cancer showed increasing trend whereas cervical cancer showed decreasing trend in successive birth cohorts across all five PBCRs.ConclusionIn both breast and cervical cancers, a significant age, cohort and period effect was noted in Bangalore, Chennai and Delhi. Despite period effect, the cohort effect was predominant and it may be attributed to the generational changes in risk factors among cancer breast and cervix.     

Trends in colorectal cancer incidence and related lifestyle risk factors in 15⿿49-year-olds in Canada, 1969⿿2010

BackgroundWhile the overall incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Canada has been decreasing, some countries show an increasing incidence in those under the age of 50. We examined the trends in CRC incidence and associated lifestyle risk factors in Canadians aged 15⿿49.MethodsIncidence data for colorectal, colon and rectum/rectosigmoid cancers were obtained for 1969⿿2010 from the Canadian Cancer Registry, and trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were examined by Joinpoint regression for three age groups (15⿿29, 30⿿39, 40⿿49 years) and by sex. Trends in the prevalence of some CRC risk factors were similarly examined from national health surveys for various periods ranging from 1970 to 2012.ResultsIn both sexes combined, ASIRs rose by 6.7%/year (1997⿿2010) for 15⿿29-year-olds, 2.4%/year (1996⿿2010) for 30⿿39-year-olds, and 0.8%/year (1997⿿2010) for 40⿿49-year-olds. Similar trends were observed by sex. The rise in ASIR was more rapid for cancers of the rectum/rectosigmoid compared to colon for all age groups. Risk factor trends varied: excess weight rose substantially, vegetables and fruit consumption increased slightly, physical inactivity rates declined but remained high, alcohol consumption changed little, and smoking rates declined. Data on red/processed meat consumption were unavailable.ConclusionThe ASIR of CRC in young Canadians has increased since about the mid-1990s. The rising prevalence of excess weight in younger generations has likely played a role in the CRC trend, but more research is needed.     

Parametric and semiparametric approaches to testing for seasonal trend in serial count data

We present two tests for seasonal trend in monthly incidence data. The first approach uses a penalized likelihood to choose the number of harmonic terms to include in a parametric harmonic model (which includes time trends and autogression as well as seasonal harmonic terms) and then tests for seasonality using a parametric bootstrap test. The second approach uses a semiparametric regression model to test for seasonal trend. In the semiparametric model, the seasonal pattern is modeled nonparametrically, parametric terms are included for autoregressive effects and a linear time trend, and a parametric bootstrap test is used to test for seasonality. For both procedures, a null distribution is generated under a null Poisson model with time trends and autoregression parameters.We apply the methods to skin melanoma incidence rates collected by the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute, and perform simulation studies to evaluate the type I error rate and power for the two procedures. These simulations suggest that both procedures are alpha-level procedures. In addition, the harmonic model/bootstrap test had similar or larger power than the semiparametric model/bootstrap test for a wide range of alternatives, and the harmonic model/bootstrap test is much easier to implement. Thus, we recommend the harmonic model/bootstrap test for the analysis of seasonal incidence data.     

Models for the analysis of radon-exposed populations

Radon-222 is a radioactive decay product of radium-226 and uranium-238, which are found throughout the crust of the earth. Studies of underground miners clearly show that exposure to radon and its decay products increases the risk of developing lung cancer. Data on standardized mortality ratios from eight cohort studies indicate that the radon-lung cancer relationship is statistically homogeneous, even though cohorts are from different types of mines and from different countries. Regression methods for cohort data based on a Poisson probability model permit a thorough consideration of risk patterns. In this report, we review these methods, wherein the disease rate in each cell of a multi-way table is modeled as a function of the cross-classifying variables. The National Academy of Sciences' Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation uses the Poisson regression approach to develop a model for age-specific lung cancer risk which depends on cumulative exposure, age at risk, and time since exposure. This model is reviewed and its implications discussed. The most important determinant of lung cancer is cigarette smoking. This paper discusses relative risk models for analysis of joint exposure to radon and tobacco products. The review of available studies suggests that the joint relationship of radon and smoking with lung cancer is consistent with a multiplicative model, but a submultiplicative relationship is most likely. An additive model is rejected.     

Calculation of the 1995 lung cancer incidence in the Netherlands and Sweden caused by smoking and radon: risk implications for radon

A two-mutation carcinogenesis model was used to calculate the expected lung cancer incidence caused by both smoking and exposure to radon in two populations, i.e. those of the Netherlands and Sweden. The model parameters were taken from a previous analysis of lung cancer in smokers and uranium miners and the model was applied to the two populations taking into account the smoking habits and exposure to radon. For both countries, the smoking histories and indoor radon exposure data for the period 1910-1995 were reconstructed and used in the calculations. Compared with the number of lung cancer cases observed in 1995 among both males and females in the two countries, the calculations show that between 72% and 94% of the registered lung cancer cases may be attributable to the combined effects of radon and smoking. In the Netherlands, a portion of about 4% and in Sweden, a portion of about 20% of the lung cancer cases (at ages 0-80 years) may be attributable to radon exposure, the numbers for males being slightly lower than for females. In the Netherlands, the proportions of lung cancers attributable to smoking are 91% for males and 71% for females; in Sweden, the figures are 70% and 56%, respectively. The risk from radon exposure is dependent on gender and cigarette smoking: the excess absolute risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 ranges between 0.003 and 0.006 and compares well with current estimates, e.g. 0.0043 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The excess relative risk for continuous exposure to 100 Bq m-3 shows a larger variation, ranging generally between 0.1 for smokers and 1.0 for non-smokers. The results support the assumption that exposure to (indoor) radon, even at a level as low as background radiation, causes lung cancer proportional to the dose and is consistent with risk factors derived from the miners data.     

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China, 1990–2017: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundBladder cancer is closely related to occupational carcinogens, and China is undergoing a rapid industrialization. However, trend of bladder cancer incidence and mortality remains unknown in China.MethodsIncidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group stratified by gender (males/females) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; age, period and cohort effects on incidence and mortality were simultaneously estimated by age-period-cohort model.ResultsThrough 1990–2017, age-standardized incidence rates significantly rose in men (AAPC = 0.72%, 95% CI: 0.5%, 0.9%) while decreased in women (-1.25%: -1.6%, -0.9%); age-standardized mortality rates decreased in both men (-1.09%: -1.2%, -0.9%) and women (-2.48%: -2.8%, -2.2%). The joinpoint regression analysis showed the mortality almost decreased in all age groups; while the incidence increased in men for older age groups (from 45 to 49 to 80–84). Moreover, age effect showed the incidence and mortality increased with age; the incidence and mortality increased with time period, while in women period effect stop decreasing and began to increase since 2007; cohort effect showed them decreased with birth cohorts.ConclusionsThe incidence of bladder cancer is increasing in men but mortality decreases in both sexes. Both the incidence and mortality in men substantially increase with age and period, while the rates in women increased with period since 2007. The period effect may indicate the increased risks to bladder cancer in Chinese men. Etiological studies are needed to identify the factors driving these trends of bladder cancer.     

Comparison of female breast cancer between Russia and Germany: A population-based study on time trends and stage at diagnosis

ObjectivesWhile a mammography-screening program (MSP) is being offered systematically in Germany since 2009, the dispanserizatsiya has been implemented in Russia since 2013. This study examined trends of stage at breast cancer diagnosis in two Russian regions and compared the results with the development in Germany. In addition, we aimed to gain further insights into the early detection of breast cancer in Russia.MethodsIncidence data from two cancer registries in Russia and 12 population-based cancer registries in Germany were used to analyse breast cancer incidence rates among women above age 30 over time. Further, we calculated rate ratios to compare the age group-specific incidence rates after the implementation of MSP in Germany (2010–2014) with the period before implementation (2003–2005) separately for each tumour stage and all stages combined.ResultsDuring the study period from 2003 to 2014, age-standardised rates for breast cancer were 54.6 and 116.7 per 100,000 for Russia and Germany, respectively. The proportion of the T1 stage at diagnosis among Russian women aged 50 + is half than that in Germany. Nevertheless, we observed an increasing trend of early-stage alongside the reduction of advanced-stage incidence rates of breast cancer in Russia.ConclusionsThe observed trend in Russia may reflect overall positive changes in early detection of breast cancer, with actual proportion of T1 stage still far behind Germany. Advances in breast cancer screening efforts through the dispanserizatsiya may help to further reduce the breast cancer burden.     

Trend breaks in incidence of non-cardia gastric cancer in the Netherlands

IntroductionThe incidence of gastric cancer declined over the past decades. Recently, unfavorable trend breaks (i.e. rise in incidence) were seen for non-cardia cancer in younger age groups in the US. It is unclear whether these also occur in other Western countries. We aimed to analyze the gastric cancer incidence trends by age, sex, subsite and stage in the Netherlands.MethodsData on all patients with gastric adenocarcinoma diagnosed from 1973 to 2011 (n = 9093) were obtained from the population-based Eindhoven cancer registry. Incidence time trends (European standardized rates per 100,000) were separately analyzed by sex, age group (<60, 60–74, and >75 years), subsite, and pathological stage. Joinpoint analyses were performed to discern trend breaks, age–period–cohort analyses to examine the influence of longitudinal and cross-sectional changes.ResultsThe incidence of non-cardia cancer declined annually by 3.5% (95% CI −3.8; −3.3). However, in males <60 years, the incidence flattened since 2006, and tended to rise in those >74 years. This pertained to corpus cancers. The incidence of cardia cancer peaked in 1985 and decreased subsequently by 2.4% (95% CI −3.2; −1.5) yearly. The absolute incidence of stage IV disease at first diagnosis initially decreased, but then remained stable over the past 15–20 years.ConclusionsThe incidence of non-cardia cancer declined over the past four decades in the Netherlands, but now seems to be stabilizing particularly in males. Unfavorable trend breaks are seen for corpus cancer in younger and older males. The trend breaks in the Netherlands are however not similar to those observed in the US.