Can Community Health Workers Report Accurately on Births and Deaths? Results of Field Assessments in Ethiopia,Malawi and Mali

Introduction

Most low-income countries lack complete and accurate vital registration systems. As a result, measures of under-five mortality rates rely mostly on household surveys. In collaboration with partners in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, and Mali, we assessed the completeness and accuracy of reporting of births and deaths by community-based health workers, and the accuracy of annualized under-five mortality rate estimates derived from these data. Here we report on results from Ethiopia, Malawi and Mali.

Method

In all three countries, community health workers (CHWs) were trained, equipped and supported to report pregnancies, births and deaths within defined geographic areas over a period of at least fifteen months. In-country institutions collected these data every month. At each study site, we administered a full birth history (FBH) or full pregnancy history (FPH), to women of reproductive age via a census of households in Mali and via household surveys in Ethiopia and Malawi. Using these FBHs/FPHs as a validation data source, we assessed the completeness of the counts of births and deaths and the accuracy of under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates from the community-based method against the retrospective FBH/FPH for rolling twelve-month periods. For each method we calculated total cost, average annual cost per 1,000 population, and average cost per vital event reported.

Results

On average, CHWs submitted monthly vital event reports for over 95 percent of catchment areas in Ethiopia and Malawi, and for 100 percent of catchment areas in Mali. The completeness of vital events reporting by CHWs varied: we estimated that 30%-90% of annualized expected births (i.e. the number of births estimated using a FPH) were documented by CHWs and 22%-91% of annualized expected under-five deaths were documented by CHWs. Resulting annualized under-five mortality rates based on the CHW vital events reporting were, on average, under-estimated by 28% in Ethiopia, 32% in Malawi, and 9% in Mali relative to comparable FPHs. Costs per vital event reported ranged from $21 in Malawi to $149 in Mali.

Discussion

Our findings in Mali suggest that CHWs can collect complete and high-quality vital events data useful for monitoring annual changes in under-five mortality rates. Both the supervision of CHWs in Mali and the rigor of the associated field-based data quality checks were of a high standard, and the size of the pilot area in Mali was small (comprising of approximately 53,205 residents in 4,200 households). Hence, there are remaining questions about whether this level of vital events reporting completeness and data quality could be maintained if the approach was implemented at scale. Our experience in Malawi and Ethiopia suggests that, in some settings, establishing and maintaining the completeness and quality of vital events reporting by CHWs over time is challenging. In this sense, our evaluation in Mali falls closer to that of an efficacy study, whereas our evaluations in Ethiopia and Malawi are more akin to an effectiveness study. Our overall findings suggest that no one-size-fits-all approach will be successful in guaranteeing complete and accurate reporting of vital events by CHWs.     

Evaluation of a mHealth Data Quality Intervention to Improve Documentation of Pregnancy Outcomes by Health Surveillance Assistants in Malawi: A Cluster Randomized Trial

Background

While community health workers are being recognized as an integral work force with growing responsibilities, increased demands can potentially affect motivation and performance. The ubiquity of mobile phones, even in hard-to-reach communities, has facilitated the pursuit of novel approaches to support community health workers beyond traditional modes of supervision, job aids, in-service training, and material compensation. We tested whether supportive short message services (SMS) could improve reporting of pregnancies and pregnancy outcomes among community health workers (Health Surveillance Assistants, or HSAs) in Malawi.

Methods and Findings

We designed a set of one-way SMS that were sent to HSAs on a regular basis during a 12-month period. We tested the effectiveness of the cluster-randomized intervention in improving the complete documentation of a pregnancy. We defined complete documentation as a pregnancy for which a specific outcome was recorded. HSAs in the treatment group received motivational and data quality SMS. HSAs in the control group received only motivational SMS. During baseline and intervention periods, we matched reported pregnancies to reported outcomes to determine if reporting of matched pregnancies differed between groups and by period. The trial is registered as ISCTRN24785657.

Conclusions

Study results show that the mHealth intervention improved the documentation of matched pregnancies in both the treatment (OR 1.31, 95% CI: 1.10–1.55, p<0.01) and control (OR 1.46, 95% CI: 1.11–1.91, p = 0.01) groups relative to the baseline period, despite differences in SMS content between groups. The results should be interpreted with caution given that the study was underpowered. We did not find a statistically significant difference in matched pregnancy documentation between groups during the intervention period (OR 0.94, 95% CI: 0.63–1.38, p = 0.74). mHealth applications have the potential to improve the tracking and data quality of pregnancies and pregnancy outcomes, particularly in low-resource settings.     

Non-Life Threatening Maternal Morbidity: Cross Sectional Surveys from Malawi and Pakistan

Background

For more accurate estimation of the global burden of pregnancy associated disease, clarity is needed on definition and assessment of non-severe maternal morbidity. Our study aimed to define maternal morbidity with clear criteria for identification at primary care level and estimate the distribution of and evaluate associations between physical (infective and non-infective) and psychological morbidities in two different low-income countries.

Methods

Cross sectional study with assessment of morbidity in early pregnancy (34%), late pregnancy (35%) and the postnatal period (31%) among 3459 women from two rural communities in Pakistan (1727) and Malawi (1732). Trained health care providers at primary care level used semi-structured questionnaires documenting signs and symptoms, clinical examination and laboratory tests which were bundled to reflect infectious, non-infectious and psychological morbidity.

Results

One in 10 women in Malawi and 1 in 5 in Pakistan reported a previous pregnancy complication with 1 in 10 overall reporting a previous neonatal death or stillbirth. In the index pregnancy, 50.1% of women in Malawi and 53% in Pakistan were assessed to have at least one morbidity (infective or non-infective). Both infective (Pakistan) and non-infective morbidity (Pakistan and Malawi) was lower in the postnatal period than during pregnancy. Multiple morbidities were uncommon (<10%). There were marked differences in psychological morbidity: 26.9% of women in Pakistan 2.6% in Malawi had an Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Score (EPDS) > 9. Complications during a previous pregnancy, infective morbidity (p <0.001), intra or postpartum haemorrhage (p <0.02) were associated with psychological morbidity in both settings.

Conclusions

Our findings highlight the need to strengthen the availability and quality of antenatal and postnatal care packages. We propose to adapt and improve the framework and criteria used in this study, ensuring a basic set of diagnostic tests is available, to ensure more robust assessment of non-severe maternal morbidity.     

Pregnancy Prevention and Condom Use Practices among HIV-Infected Women on Antiretroviral Therapy Seeking Family Planning in Lilongwe,Malawi

Background

Programs for integration of family planning into HIV care must recognize current practices and desires among clients to appropriately target and tailor interventions. We sought to evaluate fertility intentions, unintended pregnancy, contraceptive and condom use among a cohort of HIV-infected women seeking family planning services within an antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinic.

Methods

200 women completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire during enrollment into a prospective contraceptive study at the Lighthouse Clinic, an HIV/ART clinic in Lilongwe, Malawi, between August and December 2010.

Results

Most women (95%) did not desire future pregnancy. Prior reported unintended pregnancy rates were high (69% unplanned and 61% unhappy with timing of last pregnancy). Condom use was inconsistent, even among couples with discordant HIV status, with lack of use often attributed to partner’s refusal. Higher education, older age, lower parity and having an HIV negative partner were factors associated with consistent condom usage.

Discussion

High rates of unintended pregnancy among these women underscore the need for integ rating family planning, sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention, and HIV services. Contraceptive access and use, including condoms, must be improved with specific efforts to enlist partner support. Messages regarding the importance of condom usage in conjunction with more effective modern contraceptive methods for both infection and pregnancy prevention must continue to be reinforced over the course of ongoing ART treatment.     

Using Health Extension Workers for Monitoring Child Mortality in Real-Time: Validation against Household Survey Data in Rural Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has scaled up its community-based programs over the past decade by training and deploying health extension workers (HEWs) in rural communities throughout the country. Consequently, child mortality has declined substantially, placing Ethiopia among the few countries that have achieved the United Nations’ fourth Millennium Development Goal. As Ethiopia continues its efforts, results must be assessed regularly to provide timely feedback for improvement and to generate further support for programs. More specifically the expansion of HEWs at the community level provides a unique opportunity to build a system for real-time monitoring of births and deaths, linked to a civil registration and vital statistics system that Ethiopia is also developing. We tested the accuracy and completeness of births and deaths reported by trained HEWs for monitoring child mortality over 15 -month periods.

Methods and Findings

HEWs were trained in 93 randomly selected rural kebeles in Jimma and West Hararghe zones of the Oromia region to report births and deaths over a 15-month period from January, 2012 to March, 2013. Completeness of number of births and deaths, age distribution of deaths, and accuracy of resulting under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates were assessed against data from a large household survey with full birth history from women aged 15–49. Although, in general HEWs, were able to accurately report events that they identified, the completeness of number of births and deaths reported over twelve-month periods was very low and variable across the two zones. Compared to household survey estimates, HEWs reported only about 30% of births and 21% of under-five deaths occurring in their communities over a twelve-month period. The under-five mortality rate was under-estimated by around 30%, infant mortality rate by 23% and neonatal mortality by 17%. HEWs reported disproportionately higher number of deaths among the very young infants than among the older children.

Conclusion

Birth and death data reported by HEWs are not complete enough to support the monitoring of changes in childhood mortality. HEWs can significantly contribute to the success of a CRVS in Ethiopia, but cannot be relied upon as the sole source for identification of vital events. Further studies are needed to understand how to increase the level of completeness.     

Prenatal Paracetamol Exposure and Wheezing in Childhood: Causation or Confounding?

Background

Several studies have reported an increased risk of wheezing in the children of mothers who used paracetamol during pregnancy. We evaluated to what extent this association is explained by confounding.

Methods

We investigated the association between maternal paracetamol use in the first and third trimester of pregnancy and ever wheezing or recurrent wheezing/asthma in infants in the NINFEA cohort study. Risks ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated after adjustment for confounders, including maternal infections and antibiotic use during pregnancy.

Results

The prevalence of maternal paracetamol use was 30.6% during the first and 36.7% during the third trimester of pregnancy. The prevalence of ever wheezing and recurrent wheezing/asthma was 16.9% and 5.6%, respectively. After full adjustment, the RR for ever wheezing decreased from 1.25 [1.07–1.47] to 1.10 [0.94–1.30] in the first, and from 1.26 [1.08–1.47] to 1.10 [0.93–1.29] in the third trimester. A similar pattern was observed for recurrent wheezing/asthma. Duration of maternal paracetamol use was not associated with either outcome. Further analyses on paracetamol use for three non-infectious disorders (sciatica, migraine, and headache) revealed no increased risk of wheezing in children.

Conclusion

The association between maternal paracetamol use during pregnancy and infant wheezing is mainly, if not completely explained by confounding.     

Maternal Mortality in Rural South Ethiopia: Outcomes of Community-Based Birth Registration by Health Extension Workers

Introduction

Rural communities in low-income countries lack vital registrations to track birth outcomes. We aimed to examine the feasibility of community-based birth registration and measure maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in rural south Ethiopia.

Methods

In 2010, health extension workers (HEWs) registered births and maternal deaths among 421,639 people in three districts (Derashe, Bonke, and Arba Minch Zuria). One nurse-supervisor per district provided administrative and technical support to HEWs. The primary outcomes were the feasibility of registration of a high proportion of births and measuring MMR. The secondary outcome was the proportion of skilled birth attendance. We validated the completeness of the registry and the MMR by conducting a house-to-house survey in 15 randomly selected villages in Bonke.

Results

We registered 10,987 births (81·4% of expected 13,492 births) with annual crude birth rate of 32 per 1,000 population. The validation study showed that, of 2,401 births occurred in the surveyed households within eight months of the initiation of the registry, 71·6% (1,718) were registered with similar MMRs (474 vs. 439) between the registered and unregistered births. Overall, we recorded 53 maternal deaths; MMR was 489 per 100,000 live births and 83% (44 of 53 maternal deaths) occurred at home. Ninety percent (9,863 births) were at home, 4% (430) at health posts, 2·5% (282) at health centres, and 3·5% (412) in hospitals. MMR increased if: the male partners were illiterate (609 vs. 346; p= 0·051) and the villages had no road access (946 vs. 410; p= 0·039). The validation helped to increase the registration coverage by 10% through feedback discussions.

Conclusion

It is possible to obtain a high-coverage birth registration and measure MMR in rural communities where a functional system of community health workers exists. The MMR was high in rural south Ethiopia and most births and maternal deaths occurred at home.     

Adolescent Pregnancy and Attained Height among Black South African Girls: Matched-Pair Prospective Study

Importance

The impact of adolescent pregnancy on offspring birth outcomes has been widely studied, but less is known about its impact on the growth of the young mother herself.

Objective

To determine the association between adolescent pregnancy and attained height.

Design

Prospective birth cohort study.

Setting

Cohort members followed from birth to age 20 y in Soweto, South Africa.

Participant

From among 840 Black females with sufficient data, we identified 54 matched pairs, in which a girl who became pregnant before the age of 17 years was matched with a girl who did not have a pregnancy by age 20 y. Pairs were matched on age at menarche and height-for-age z scores in the year before the case became pregnant (mean 15.0 y).

Main Outcome Measures

The two groups were compared with respect to attained height, measured at mean age 18.5 y.

Results

Mean age at conception was 15.9 years (range: 13.7 to 16.9 y). Mean height at matching was 159.4 cm in the adolescent pregnancy group and 159.3 cm in the comparison group (p = 0.3). Mean attained height was 160.4 cm in the adolescent pregnancy group and 160.3 cm in the comparison group (p = 0.7).

Conclusions

Among Black females in Soweto, South Africa, adolescent pregnancy was not associated with attained height.     

Optimal Timing of Delivery among Low-Risk Women with Prior Caesarean Section: A Secondary Analysis of the WHO Multicountry Survey on Maternal and Newborn Health

Objective

To investigate optimal timing of elective repeat caesarean section among low-risk pregnant women with prior caesarean section in a multicountry sample from largely low- and middle-income countries.

Design

Secondary analysis of a cross-sectional study.

Setting

Twenty-nine countries from the World Health Organization Multicountry Survey on Maternal and Newborn Health.

Population

29,647 women with prior caesarean section and no pregnancy complications in their current pregnancy who delivered a term singleton (live birth and stillbirth) at gestational age 37–41 weeks by pre-labour caesarean section, intra-partum caesarean section, or vaginal birth following spontaneous onset of labour.

Methods

We compared the rate of short-term adverse maternal and newborn outcomes following pre-labour caesarean section at a given gestational age, to those following ongoing pregnancies beyond that gestational age.

Main Outcome Measures

Severe maternal outcomes, neonatal morbidity, and intra-hospital early neonatal mortality.

Results

Odds of neonatal morbidity and intra-hospital early neonatal mortality were 0.48 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39–0.60) and 0.31 (95% CI 0.16–0.58) times lower for ongoing pregnancies compared to pre-labour caesarean section at 37 weeks. We did not find any significant change in the risk of severe maternal outcomes between pre-labour caesarean section at a given gestational age and ongoing pregnancies beyond that gestational age.

Conclusions

Elective repeat caesarean section at 37 weeks had higher risk of neonatal morbidity and mortality compared to ongoing pregnancy, however risks at later gestational ages did not differ between groups.     

Measuring Intensity of End of Life Care: A Systematic Review

Background

Many studies have measured the intensity of end of life care. However, no summary of the measures used in the field is currently available.

Objectives

To summarise features, characteristics of use and reported validity of measures used for evaluating intensity of end of life care.

Methods

This was a systematic review according to PRISMA guidelines. We performed a comprehensive literature search in Ovid Medline, Embase, The Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews and reference lists published between 1990-2014. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, full texts and extracted data. Studies were eligible if they used a measure of end of life care intensity, defined as all quantifiable measures describing the type and intensity of medical care administered during the last year of life.

Results

A total of 58 of 1590 potentially eligible studies met our inclusion criteria and were included. The most commonly reported measures were hospitalizations (n = 44), intensive care unit admissions (n = 39) and chemotherapy use (n = 27). Studies measured intensity of care in different timeframes ranging from 48 hours to 12 months. The majority of studies were conducted in cancer patients (n = 31). Only 4 studies included information on validation of the measures used. None evaluated construct validity, while 3 studies considered criterion and 1 study reported both content and criterion validity.

Conclusions

This review provides a synthesis to aid in choosing intensity of end of life care measures based on their previous use but simultaneously highlights the crucial need for more validation studies and consensus in the field.     

Potentially Modifiable Factors Associated with Death of Infants and Children with Severe Pneumonia Routinely Managed in District Hospitals in Malawi

Objective

To investigate recognised co-morbidities and clinical management associated with inpatient pneumonia mortality in Malawian district hospitals.

Methods

Prospective cohort study, of patient records, carried out in Malawi between 1^st October 2000 and 30^th June 2003. The study included all children aged 0-59 months admitted to the paediatric wards in sixteen district hospitals throughout Malawi with severe and very severe pneumonia. We compared individual factors between those that survived (n = 14 076) and those that died (n = 1 633).

Results

From logistic regression analysis, predictors of death in hospital, adjusted for age, sex and severity grade included comorbid conditions of meningitis (OR =2.49, 95% CI 1.50-4.15), malnutrition (OR =2.37, 95% CI 1.94-2.88) and severe anaemia (OR =1.41, 95% CI 1.03-1.92). Requiring supplementary oxygen (OR =2.16, 95% CI 1.85-2.51) and intravenous fluids (OR =3.02, 95% CI 2.13-4.28) were associated with death while blood transfusion was no longer significant (OR =1.10, 95% CI 0.77-1.57) when the model included severe anaemia.

Conclusions

This study identified a number of challenges to improve outcome for Malawian infants and children hospitalised with pneumonia. These included improved assessment of co-morbidities and more rigorous application of standard case management.     

Elective Delivery at Term after a Previous Unexplained Intra-Uterine Fetal Death: Audit of Delivery Outcome at Tygerberg Hospital,South Africa

Objectives

To assess the delivery outcome in a pregnancy with a previous unexplained intra-uterine death by elective induction of labour at term.

Methods

An audit of the pregnancy outcome of all women within the catchment area with a current singleton pregnancy; and a previous unexplained or unexplored singleton fetal demise ≥24 weeks (or 500 grams birth weight if gestation unknown) after planned routine induction of labour at full term (39-40 weeks).

Results

During the audit period, 306 patients with a previous intra-uterine fetal death were referred for further management. Of these, 161 had a clear indication for earlier intervention and were excluded from the protocol. Of the remaining 145 patients, 9 met further exclusion criteria and there were 2 patients who defaulted. Forty-two of the remaining study patients (with no known previous medical problems) developed complications during their antenatal course that necessitated a change in clinical management and earlier (<39 weeks) delivery. Of the remaining 92 patients in the audit, 47 (51%) went into spontaneous labour before their induction date; all 92 women delivered without major complications. There were no intra-uterine deaths prior to induction.

Conclusions

Careful follow up at a high risk clinic identifies new or concealed maternal or fetal complications in 29% of patients with a previous intra-uterine death and no obvious maternal or fetal disease in the index pregnancy. When all risks are excluded and the pregnancy allowed to progress to full term (39-40 weeks) before an induction is offered, 50% will go into spontaneous labour.     

Survival Analysis of Faculty Retention and Promotion in the Social Sciences by Gender

Background

Recruitment and retention of talent is central to the research performance of universities. Existing research shows that, while men are more likely than women to be promoted at the different stages of the academic career, no such difference is found when it comes to faculty retention rates. Current research on faculty retention, however, focuses on careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). We extend this line of inquiry to the social sciences.

Methods

We follow 2,218 tenure-track assistant professors hired since 1990 in seven social science disciplines at nineteen U.S. universities from time of hire to time of departure. We also track their time to promotion to associate and full professor. Using survival analysis, we examine gender differences in time to departure and time to promotion. Our methods account for censoring and unobserved heterogeneity, as well as effect heterogeneity across disciplines and cohorts.

Results

We find no statistically significant differences between genders in faculty retention. However, we do find that men are more likely to be granted tenure than women. When it comes to promotion to full professor, the results are less conclusive, as the effect of gender is sensitive to model specification.

Conclusions

The results corroborate previous findings about gender patterns in faculty retention and promotion. They suggest that advances have been made when it comes to gender equality in retention and promotion, but important differences still persist.     

Modelling the Contributions of Malaria,HIV, Malnutrition and Rainfall to the Decline in Paediatric Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella Disease in Malawi

Introduction

Nontyphoidal Salmonellae (NTS) are responsible for a huge burden of bloodstream infection in Sub-Saharan African children. Recent reports of a decline in invasive NTS (iNTS) disease from Kenya and The Gambia have emphasised an association with malaria control. Following a similar decline in iNTS disease in Malawi, we have used 9 years of continuous longitudinal data to model the interrelationships between iNTS disease, malaria, HIV and malnutrition.

Methods

Trends in monthly numbers of childhood iNTS disease presenting at Queen’s Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi from 2002 to 2010 were reviewed in the context of longitudinal monthly data describing malaria slide-positivity among paediatric febrile admissions, paediatric HIV prevalence, nutritional rehabilitation unit admissions and monthly rainfall over the same 9 years, using structural equation models (SEM).

Results

Analysis of 3,105 iNTS episodes identified from 49,093 blood cultures, showed an 11.8% annual decline in iNTS (p < 0.001). SEM analysis produced a stable model with good fit, revealing direct and statistically significant seasonal effects of malaria and malnutrition on the prevalence of iNTS disease. When these data were smoothed to eliminate seasonal cyclic changes, these associations remained strong and there were additional significant effects of HIV prevalence.

Conclusions

These data suggest that the overall decline in iNTS disease observed in Malawi is attributable to multiple public health interventions leading to reductions in malaria, HIV and acute malnutrition. Understanding the impacts of public health programmes on iNTS disease is essential to plan and evaluate interventions.     

A Scoring Tool to Identify East African HIV-1 Serodiscordant Partnerships with a High Likelihood of Pregnancy

Introduction

HIV-1 prevention programs targeting HIV-1 serodiscordant couples need to identify couples that are likely to become pregnant to facilitate discussions about methods to minimize HIV-1 risk during pregnancy attempts (i.e. safer conception) or effective contraception when pregnancy is unintended. A clinical prediction tool could be used to identify HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with a high likelihood of pregnancy within one year.

Methods

Using standardized clinical prediction methods, we developed and validated a tool to identify heterosexual East African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with an increased likelihood of becoming pregnant in the next year. Datasets were from three prospectively followed cohorts, including nearly 7,000 couples from Kenya and Uganda participating in HIV-1 prevention trials and delivery projects.

Results

The final score encompassed the age of the woman, woman’s number of children living, partnership duration, having had condomless sex in the past month, and non-use of an effective contraceptive. The area under the curve (AUC) for the probability of the score to correctly predict pregnancy was 0.74 (95% CI 0.72–0.76). Scores ≥7 predicted a pregnancy incidence of >17% per year and captured 78% of the pregnancies. Internal and external validation confirmed the predictive ability of the score.

Discussion

A pregnancy likelihood score encompassing basic demographic, clinical and behavioral factors defined African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples with high one-year pregnancy incidence rates. This tool could be used to engage African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in counseling discussions about fertility intentions in order to offer services for safer conception or contraception that align with their reproductive goals.     

Sustainability of Evidence-Based Practices for HIV Prevention among Female Sex Workers in Mexico

Objective

This study examined service provider perceptions of requirements for successful sustainment of an efficacious intervention for preventing HIV/AIDS and STIs in female sex workers (FSWs) in Mexico.

Methods

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 77 leaders and counselors from 12 community-based reproductive health clinics located throughout Mexico participating in a large hybrid effectiveness-implementation randomized controlled trial to scale-up the use of Mujer Segura, a psychoeducational intervention designed to promote condom use and enhance safer sex negotiation skills among FSWs.

Results

Five sets of requirements for sustainment were identified: 1) characteristics of the provider, including competence in delivering the intervention, need for continued technical support and assistance from outside experts, and satisfaction with addressing the needs of this population; 2) characteristics of the clients (i.e., FSWs), including client need and demand for services and incentives for participation; 3) characteristics of the organization, including its mission, benefits, and operations; 4) characteristics of the outer setting, including financial support and relationship with the community-based organization’s central offices, and transportation and security in areas where FSWs live and work; and 5) outcomes associated with the intervention itself, including a reduction of risk through education and increased outreach through referrals from FSWs who received the intervention.

Conclusions

Although the requirements for successful sustainment of interventions like Mujer Segura are consistent with the factors identified in many models of implementation, the results illustrate the importance of local context in assigning priority to these model elements and suggest that the five categories are not discrete entities but interconnected.     

Risk Factors for Maternal Mortality in Rural Tigray,Northern Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study

Background

Maternal mortality continues to have devastating impacts in many societies, where it constitutes a leading cause of death, and thus remains a core issue in international development. Nevertheless, individual determinants of maternal mortality are often unclear and subject to local variation. This study aims to characterise individual risk factors for maternal mortality in Tigray, Ethiopia.

Methods

A community-based case-control study was conducted, with 62 cases and 248 controls from six randomly-selected rural districts. All maternal deaths between May 2012 and September 2013 were recruited as cases and a random sample of mothers who delivered in the same communities within the same time period were taken as controls. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent determinants of maternal mortality.

Results

Four independent individual risk factors, significantly associated with maternal death, emerged. Women who were not members of the voluntary Women’s Development Army were more likely to experience maternal death (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.04–4.11), as were women whose husbands or partners had below-median scores for involvement during pregnancy (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.14–4.18). Women with a pre-existing history of other illness were also at increased risk (OR 5.58, 95% CI 2.17–14.30), as were those who had never used contraceptives (OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.37–4.85). Previous pregnancy complications, a below-median number of antenatal care visits and a woman’s lack of involvement in health care decision making were significant bivariable risks that were not significant in the multivariable model.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that interventions aimed at reducing maternal mortality need to focus on encouraging membership of the Women’s Development Army, enhancing husbands’ involvement in maternal health services, improving linkages between maternity care and other disease-specific programmes and ensuring that women with previous illnesses or non-users of contraceptive services are identified and followed-up as being at increased risk during pregnancy and childbirth.     

Identifying Patients with Bacteremia in Community-Hospital Emergency Rooms: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objectives

(1) To develop a clinical prediction rule to identify patients with bacteremia, using only information that is readily available in the emergency room (ER) of community hospitals, and (2) to test the validity of that rule with a separate, independent set of data.

Design

Multicenter retrospective cohort study.

Setting

To derive the clinical prediction rule we used data from 3 community hospitals in Japan (derivation). We tested the rule using data from one other community hospital (validation), which was not among the three “derivation” hospitals.

Participants

Adults (age ≥ 16 years old) who had undergone blood-culture testing while in the ER between April 2011 and March 2012. For the derivation data, n = 1515 (randomly sampled from 7026 patients), and for the validation data n = 467 (from 823 patients).

Analysis

We analyzed 28 candidate predictors of bacteremia, including demographic data, signs and symptoms, comorbid conditions, and basic laboratory data. Chi-square tests and multiple logistic regression were used to derive an integer risk score (the “ID-BactER” score). Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (i.e., the AUC) were computed.

Results

There were 241 cases of bacteremia in the derivation data. Eleven candidate predictors were used in the ID-BactER score: age, chills, vomiting, mental status, temperature, systolic blood pressure, abdominal sign, white blood-cell count, platelets, blood urea nitrogen, and C-reactive protein. The AUCs was 0.80 (derivation) and 0.74 (validation). For ID-BactER scores ≥ 2, the sensitivities for derivation and validation data were 98% and 97%, and specificities were 20% and 14%, respectively.

Conclusions

The ID-BactER score can be computed from information that is readily available in the ERs of community hospitals. Future studies should focus on developing a score with a higher specificity while maintaining the desired sensitivity.