Where are Europe’s last primary forests?

Aim

Primary forests have high conservation value but are rare in Europe due to historic land use. Yet many primary forest patches remain unmapped, and it is unclear to what extent they are effectively protected. Our aim was to (1) compile the most comprehensive European‐scale map of currently known primary forests, (2) analyse the spatial determinants characterizing their location and (3) locate areas where so far unmapped primary forests likely occur.

Location

Europe.

Methods

We aggregated data from a literature review, online questionnaires and 32 datasets of primary forests. We used boosted regression trees to explore which biophysical, socio‐economic and forest‐related variables explain the current distribution of primary forests. Finally, we predicted and mapped the relative likelihood of primary forest occurrence at a 1‐km resolution across Europe.

Results

Data on primary forests were frequently incomplete or inconsistent among countries. Known primary forests covered 1.4 Mha in 32 countries (0.7% of Europe’s forest area). Most of these forests were protected (89%), but only 46% of them strictly. Primary forests mostly occurred in mountain and boreal areas and were unevenly distributed across countries, biogeographical regions and forest types. Unmapped primary forests likely occur in the least accessible and populated areas, where forests cover a greater share of land, but wood demand historically has been low.

Main conclusions

Despite their outstanding conservation value, primary forests are rare and their current distribution is the result of centuries of land use and forest management. The conservation outlook for primary forests is uncertain as many are not strictly protected and most are small and fragmented, making them prone to extinction debt and human disturbance. Predicting where unmapped primary forests likely occur could guide conservation efforts, especially in Eastern Europe where large areas of primary forest still exist but are being lost at an alarming pace.     

Aboveground Forest Biomass and the Global Carbon Balance

The long‐term net flux of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere has been dominated by two factors: changes in the area of forests and per hectare changes in forest biomass resulting from management and regrowth. While these factors are reasonably well documented in countries of the northern mid‐latitudes as a result of systematic forest inventories, they are uncertain in the tropics. Recent estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation have focused on the uncertainty in rates of deforestation. By using the same data for biomass, however, these studies have underestimated the total uncertainty of tropical emissions and may have biased the estimates. In particular, regional and country‐specific estimates of forest biomass reported by three successive assessments of tropical forest resources by the FAO indicate systematic changes in biomass that have not been taken into account in recent estimates of tropical carbon emissions. The ‘changes’ more likely represent improved information than real on‐the‐ground changes in carbon storage. In either case, however, the data have a significant effect on current estimates of carbon emissions from the tropics and, hence, on understanding the global carbon balance.     

Net Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Bolivia during 1990-2000 and 2000-2010: Results from a Carbon Bookkeeping Model

Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO₂ emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990–2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000–2010, while CO₂ emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO₂ emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions.     

Temporal patterns of land-use change and carbon storage in China and tropical Asia

Evaluating the annual sources and sinks of carbon from land-use change helps con-strain other terms in the global carbon cycle and may help countries choose how to comply with commitments for reduced emissions. This paper presents the results of recent analyses ofland-use change in China and tropical Asia. The original forest areas are estimated to have cov-ered 546×10~6 ha in tropical Asia and 425×10~6 ha in China. By 1850, 44% of China's forests had been cleared, and another 27% was lost between 1850 and 1980, leaving China with 13% forestcover (29% of the initial forest area). Tropical Asia is estimated to have lost 26% of its initial forestcover before 1850 and another 33% after 1850. The annual emissions of carbon from the two regions re-flect the different histories over the last 150 years, with China's emissions peaking in thelate 1950s (at 0.2-0.5 Pg C·a~(-1)) and tropical Asia's emissions peaking in 1990s (at 1.0 Pg C·a~(-1)). Despite the fact that most deforestation has been for new agricultural land, the majority ofthe lands cleared from forests in China are no longer croplands, but fallow or degraded shrublands.Unlike croplands, the origins of these other lands are poorly documented, and thus add consider-able uncertainty to estimates of flux before the 1980s. Nevertheless, carbon emissions from China seem to have decreased since the 1960s to nearly zero at present. In contrast, emissions of car-bon from tropical Asia were higher in the 1990s than that at any time in the past.     

Temporal patterns of land-use change and carbon storage in China and tropical Asia

Evaluating the annual sources and sinks of carbon from land-use changehelps constrain other terms in the global carbon cycle and may help countries choose how to comply with commitments for reduced emissions. This paper presents the results of recent analyses of land-use change in China and tropical Asia. The original forest areas are estimated to have covered 546×106 ha in tropical Asia and 425×106 ha in China. By 1850, 44% of China's forests had been cleared, and another 27% was lost between 1850 and 1980, leaving China with 13% forest cover (29% of the initial forest area). Tropical Asia is estimated to have lost 26%of its initial forest cover before 1850 and another 33% after 1850. The annual emissions of carbon from the two regions reflect the different histories over the last 150 years, with China's emissions peaking in the late 1950s (at 0.2-0.5 Pg C@a-1) and tropical Asia's emissions peaking in 1990s (at 1.0 Pg C@a-1). Despite the fact that most deforestation has been for new agricultural land, the majority of the lands cleared from forests in China are no longer croplands, but fallow or degraded shrublands. Unlike croplands, the origins of these other lands are poorly documented, and thus add considerable uncertainty to estimates of flux before the 1980s. Nevertheless, carbon emissions from China seem to have decreased since the 1960s to nearly zero at present. In contrast, emissions of carbon from tropical Asia were higher in the 1990s than that at any time in the past.     

Forest carbon in lowland Papua New Guinea: Local variation and the importance of small trees

Efforts to incentivize the reduction of carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation require accurate carbon accounting. The extensive tropical forest of Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a target for such efforts and yet local carbon estimates are few. Previous estimates, based on models of neotropical vegetation applied to PNG forest plots, did not consider such factors as the unique species composition of New Guinea vegetation, local variation in forest biomass, or the contribution of small trees. We analysed all trees >1 cm in diameter at breast height (DBH) in Melanesia's largest forest plot (Wanang) to assess local spatial variation and the role of small trees in carbon storage. Above‐ground living biomass (AGLB) of trees averaged 210.72 Mg ha^?1 at Wanang. Carbon storage at Wanang was somewhat lower than in other lowland tropical forests, whereas local variation among 1‐ha subplots and the contribution of small trees to total AGLB were substantially higher. We speculate that these differences may be attributed to the dynamics of Wanang forest where erosion of a recently uplifted and unstable terrain appears to be a major source of natural disturbance. These findings emphasize the need for locally calibrated forest carbon estimates if accurate landscape level valuation and monetization of carbon is to be achieved. Such estimates aim to situate PNG forests in the global carbon context and provide baseline information needed to improve the accuracy of PNG carbon monitoring schemes.     

Emissions of carbon from forestry and land-use change in tropical Asia

The net emissions of carbon from forestry and changes in land use in south and southeast Asia were calculated here with a book-keeping model that used rates of land-use change and associated per hectare changes in vegetation and soil to calculate changes in the amount of carbon held in terrestrial ecosystems and wood products. The total release of carbon to the atmosphere over the period 1850–1995 was 43.5 PgC. The clearing of forests for permanent croplands released 33.5 PgC, about 75% of the total. The reduction of biomass in the remaining forests, as a result of shifting cultivation, logging, fuelwood extraction, and associated regrowth, was responsible for a net loss of 11.5 PgC, and the establishment of plantations withdrew from the atmosphere 1.5 PgC, most of it since 1980. Based on comparisons with other estimates, the uncertainty of this long-term flux is estimated to be within ±30%. Reducing this uncertainty will be difficult because of the difficulty of documenting the biomass of forests in existence >40 years ago. For the 15-y period 1981–1995, annual emissions averaged 1.07 PgC y^–1, about 50% higher than reported for the 1980s in an earlier study. The uncertainty of recent emissions is probably within ± 50% but could be reduced significantly with systematic use of satellite data on changes in forest area. In tropical Asia, the emissions of carbon from land-use change in the 1980s accounted for approximately 75% of the region’s total carbon emissions. Since 1990 rates of deforestation and their associated emissions have declined, while emissions of carbon from combustion of fossil fuels have increased. The net effect has been a reduction in emissions of CO₂ from this region since 1990.     

Carbon Pools and Emissions from Deforestation in Extra-Tropical Forests of Northern Argentina Between 1900 and 2005

We estimated carbon pools and emissions from deforestation in northern Argentine forests between 1900 and 2005, based on forest inventories, deforestation estimates from satellite images and historical data on forests and agriculture. Carbon fluxes were calculated using a book-keeping model. We ran 1000 simulations for a 105-year period with different combinations of values of carbon stocks (Mg C ha⁻¹), soil carbon in the top 0.2 m, and annual deforestation series. The 1000 combinations of parameters were performed as a sensitivity analysis that for each run, randomly selected the values of each variable within a predefined range of values and probability distributions. Using the simulation outputs, we calculated the accumulated C emissions due to deforestation from 1900 to 2005 and the annual emission as the average of the 1000 simulations, and uncertainties of our estimates as the standard deviation. We found that northern Argentine forests contain an estimated 4.54 Pg C (2.312 Pg C in biomass and 2.233 Pg C in soil). Between 1900 and 2005 approximately 30% of the forests were deforested, yielding carbon emissions of 0.945 (SD = 0.270) Pg C. Estimated average annual carbon emissions between 1996 and 2005, mostly from deforestation of the Chaco dry forests, were 20,875 (SD = 6,156) Gg C y⁻¹ (1 Gg = 10⁻⁶ Pg). These values represent the largest source of carbon from land-cover change in the extra-tropical southern hemisphere, between 0.9 and 2.7% of the global carbon emissions from deforestation, and approximately 10% of carbon emissions from the Brazilian Amazon. Deforestation, which has accelerated during the last decades as a result of modern agriculture expansion, represents a major national source of greenhouse gases and the second emission source, after fossil fuel consumption by fixed sources. We conclude that Argentine forests are an important carbon pool and emission source that need more attention for accurate global estimates, and seasonally dry forest deforestation is a key component of the Argentine carbon cycle. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960–2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60–70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures.     

Estimating carbon carrying capacity in natural forest ecosystems across heterogeneous landscapes: addressing sources of error

Evaluating contributions of forest ecosystems to climate change mitigation requires well‐calibrated carbon cycle models with quantified baseline carbon stocks. An appropriate baseline for carbon accounting of natural forests at landscape scales is carbon carrying capacity (CCC); defined as the mass of carbon stored in an ecosystem under prevailing environmental conditions and natural disturbance regimes but excluding anthropogenic disturbance. Carbon models require empirical measurements for input and calibration, such as net primary production (NPP) and total ecosystem carbon stock (equivalent to CCC at equilibrium). We sought to improve model calibration by addressing three sources of errors that cause uncertainty in carbon accounting across heterogeneous landscapes: (1) data‐model representation, (2) data‐object representation, (3) up‐scaling. We derived spatially explicit empirical models based on environmental variables across landscape scales to estimate NPP (based on a synthesis of global site data of NPP and gross primary productivity, n=27), and CCC (based on site data of carbon stocks in natural eucalypt forests of southeast Australia, n=284). The models significantly improved predictions, each accounting for 51% of the variance. Our methods to reduce uncertainty in baseline carbon stocks, such as using appropriate calibration data from sites with minimal human disturbance, measurements of large trees and incorporating environmental variability across the landscape, have generic application to other regions and ecosystem types. These analyses resulted in forest CCC in southeast Australia (mean total biomass of 360 t C ha^?1, with cool moist temperate forests up to 1000 t C ha^?1) that are larger than estimates from other national and international (average biome 202 t C ha^?1) carbon accounting systems. Reducing uncertainty in estimates of carbon stocks in natural forests is important to allow accurate accounting for losses of carbon due to human activities and sequestration of carbon by forest growth.     

Validating Community-Led Forest Biomass Assessments

The lack of capacity to monitor forest carbon stocks in developing countries is undermining global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Involving local people in monitoring forest carbon stocks could potentially address this capacity gap. This study conducts a complete expert remeasurement of community-led biomass inventories in remote tropical forests of Papua New Guinea. By fully remeasuring and isolating the effects of 4,481 field measurements, we demonstrate that programmes employing local people (non-experts) can produce forest monitoring data as reliable as those produced by scientists (experts). Overall, non-experts reported lower biomass estimates by an average of 9.1%, equivalent to 55.2 fewer tonnes of biomass ha^-1, which could have important financial implications for communities. However, there were no significant differences between forest biomass estimates of expert and non-expert, nor were there significant differences in some of the components used to calculate these estimates, such as tree diameter at breast height (DBH), tree counts and plot surface area, but were significant differences between tree heights. At the landscape level, the greatest biomass discrepancies resulted from height measurements (41%) and, unexpectedly, a few large missing trees contributing to a third of the overall discrepancies. We show that 85% of the biomass discrepancies at the tree level were caused by measurement taken on large trees (DBH ≥50cm), even though they consisted of only 14% of the stems. We demonstrate that programmes that engage local people can provide high-quality forest carbon data that could help overcome barriers to reducing forest carbon emissions in developing countries. Nonetheless, community-based monitoring programmes should prioritise reducing errors in the field that lead to the most important discrepancies, notably; overcoming challenges to accurately measure large trees.     

Forest Loss in Protected Areas and Intact Forest Landscapes: A Global Analysis

In spite of the high importance of forests, global forest loss has remained alarmingly high during the last decades. Forest loss at a global scale has been unveiled with increasingly finer spatial resolution, but the forest extent and loss in protected areas (PAs) and in large intact forest landscapes (IFLs) have not so far been systematically assessed. Moreover, the impact of protection on preserving the IFLs is not well understood. In this study we conducted a consistent assessment of the global forest loss in PAs and IFLs over the period 2000–2012. We used recently published global remote sensing based spatial forest cover change data, being a uniform and consistent dataset over space and time, together with global datasets on PAs’ and IFLs’ locations. Our analyses revealed that on a global scale 3% of the protected forest, 2.5% of the intact forest, and 1.5% of the protected intact forest were lost during the study period. These forest loss rates are relatively high compared to global total forest loss of 5% for the same time period. The variation in forest losses and in protection effect was large among geographical regions and countries. In some regions the loss in protected forests exceeded 5% (e.g. in Australia and Oceania, and North America) and the relative forest loss was higher inside protected areas than outside those areas (e.g. in Mongolia and parts of Africa, Central Asia, and Europe). At the same time, protection was found to prevent forest loss in several countries (e.g. in South America and Southeast Asia). Globally, high area-weighted forest loss rates of protected and intact forests were associated with high gross domestic product and in the case of protected forests also with high proportions of agricultural land. Our findings reinforce the need for improved understanding of the reasons for the high forest losses in PAs and IFLs and strategies to prevent further losses.     

Developing Cost-Effective Field Assessments of Carbon Stocks in Human-Modified Tropical Forests

Across the tropics, there is a growing financial investment in activities that aim to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, such as REDD+. However, most tropical countries lack on-the-ground capacity to conduct reliable and replicable assessments of forest carbon stocks, undermining their ability to secure long-term carbon finance for forest conservation programs. Clear guidance on how to reduce the monetary and time costs of field assessments of forest carbon can help tropical countries to overcome this capacity gap. Here we provide such guidance for cost-effective one-off field assessments of forest carbon stocks. We sampled a total of eight components from four different carbon pools (i.e. aboveground, dead wood, litter and soil) in 224 study plots distributed across two regions of eastern Amazon. For each component we estimated survey costs, contribution to total forest carbon stocks and sensitivity to disturbance. Sampling costs varied thirty-one-fold between the most expensive component, soil, and the least, leaf litter. Large live stems (≥10 cm DBH), which represented only 15% of the overall sampling costs, was by far the most important component to be assessed, as it stores the largest amount of carbon and is highly sensitive to disturbance. If large stems are not taxonomically identified, costs can be reduced by a further 51%, while incurring an error in aboveground carbon estimates of only 5% in primary forests, but 31% in secondary forests. For rapid assessments, necessary to help prioritize locations for carbon- conservation activities, sampling of stems ≥20cm DBH without taxonomic identification can predict with confidence (R² = 0.85) whether an area is relatively carbon-rich or carbon-poor—an approach that is 74% cheaper than sampling and identifying all the stems ≥10cm DBH. We use these results to evaluate the reliability of forest carbon stock estimates provided by the IPCC and FAO when applied to human-modified forests, and to highlight areas where cost savings in carbon stock assessments could be most easily made.     

Spatial variability and controls over biomass stocks,carbon fluxes,and resource-use efficiencies across forest ecosystems

Key message

Stand age, water availability, and the length of the warm period are the most influencing controls of forest structure, functioning, and efficiency.

Abstract

We aimed to discern the distribution and controls of plant biomass, carbon fluxes, and resource-use efficiencies of forest ecosystems ranging from boreal to tropical forests. We analysed a global forest database containing estimates of stand biomass and carbon fluxes (400 and 111 sites, respectively) from which we calculated resource-use efficiencies (biomass production, carbon sequestration, light, and water-use efficiencies). We used the WorldClim climatic database and remote-sensing data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer to analyse climatic controls of ecosystem functioning. The influences of forest type, stand age, management, and nitrogen deposition were also explored. Tropical forests exhibited the largest gross carbon fluxes (photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration), but rather low net ecosystem production, which peaks in temperate forests. Stand age, water availability, and length of the warm period were the main factors controlling forest structure (biomass) and functionality (carbon fluxes and efficiencies). The interaction between temperature and precipitation was the main climatic driver of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. The mean resource-use efficiency varied little among biomes. The spatial variability of biomass stocks and their distribution among ecosystem compartments were strongly correlated with the variability in carbon fluxes, and both were strongly controlled by climate (water availability, temperature) and stand characteristics (age, type of leaf). Gross primary production and ecosystem respiration were strongly correlated with mean annual temperature and precipitation only when precipitation and temperature were not limiting factors. Finally, our results suggest a global convergence in mean resource-use efficiencies.     

Biodiversity and ecosystem services: lessons from nature to improve management of planted forests for REDD-plus

Planted forests are increasingly contributing wood products and other ecosystem services at a global scale. These forests will be even more important as carbon markets develop and REDD-plus forest programs (forests used specifically to reduce atmospheric emissions of CO₂ through deforestation and forest degradation) become common. Restoring degraded and deforested areas with long-rotation planted forests can be accomplished in a manner that enhances carbon storage and other key ecosystem services. Knowledge from natural systems and understanding the functioning novel of ecosystems can be instructive for planning and restoring future forests. Here we summarize information pertaining to the mechanisms by which biodiversity functions to provide ecosystem services including: production, pest control, pollination, resilience, nutrient cycling, seed dispersal, and water quality and quantity and suggest options to improve planted forest management, especially for REDD-plus.     

Estimating carbon stock in lowland Papua New Guinean forest: Low density of large trees results in lower than global average carbon stock

Papua New Guinean forests (PNG), sequestering up to 3% of global forest carbon, are a focus of climate change mitigation initiatives, yet few field‐based studies have quantified forest biomass and carbon for lowland PNG forest. We provide an estimate for the 10 770 ha Wanang Conservation Area (WCA) to investigate the effect of calculation methodology and choice of allometric equation on estimates of above‐ground live biomass (AGLB) and carbon. We estimated AGLB and carbon from 43 nested plots at the WCA. Our biomass estimate of 292.2 Mg AGLB ha^?1 (95% CI 233.4–350.6) and carbon at 137.3 Mg C ha^?1 (95% CI 109.8–164.8) is higher than most estimates for PNG but lower than mean global estimates for tropical forest. Calculation method and choice of allometric model do not significantly influence mean biomass estimates; however, the most recently calibrated allometric equation generates estimates 13% higher for lower 95% confidence intervals of mean biomass than previous allometric models – a value often used as a conservative estimate of biomass. Although large trees at WCA (>70 cm diameter at breast height) accounted for 1/5 total biomass, their density was lower than that seen in SE Asian and Australia forests. Lower density of large trees accounts for lower AGLB than in neighbouring forests – as large trees contribute disproportionately to forest biomass. Reduced frequency of larger trees at WCA is explained by the lack of diversity of large dipterocarp species common to neighbouring SE Asian forests and, potentially, higher rates of local disturbance dynamics. PNG is susceptible to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme drought events to which large trees are particularly sensitive and, with still over 20% carbon in large trees, differential mortality under increasing ENSO drought stress raises the risk of PNG forest switching from carbon sink to source with reduced long‐term carbon storage capacity.     

Disrupted montane forest recovery hinders biodiversity conservation in the tropical Andes

Aim

Andean montane forests are biodiversity hotspots and large carbon stores and they provide numerous ecosystem services. Following land abandonment after centuries of forest clearing for agriculture in the Andes, there is an opportunity for forest recovery. Field-based studies show that forests do not always recover. However, large-scale and long-term knowledge of recovery dynamics of Andean forests remains scarce. This paper analyses tropical montane forest recovery trajectories over a 15-year time frame at the landscape and tropical Andean scale to inform restoration planning.

Methods

We first detect “potential recovery” as areas that have experienced a forest transition between 2000 and 2005. Then, we use Landsat time series analysis of the normalized difference water index (NDWI) to classify four “realized recovery” trajectories (“ongoing”, “arrested”, “disrupted” and “no recovery”) based on a sequential pattern of 5-yearly Z-score anomalies for 2005–2020. We compare these results against an analysis of change in tree cover to validate against other datasets.

Results

Across the tropical Andes, we detected a potential recovery area of 274 km² over the period. Despite increases in tree cover, most areas of the Andes remained in early successional states (10–25% tree cover), and NDWI levelled out after 5–10 years. Of all potential forest recovery areas, 22% showed “ongoing recovery”, 61% showed either “disrupted” or “arrested recovery”, and 17% showed “no recovery”. Our method captured forest recovery dynamics in a Peruvian arrested succession context and in landscape-scale tree-planting efforts in Ecuador.

Main conclusions

Forest recovery across the Andes is mostly disrupted, arrested or unsuccessful, with consequences for biodiversity recovery and provision of ecosystem services. Low-recovery areas identified in this study might be good candidates for active restoration interventions in this UN Decade on Restoration. Future studies could determine restoration strategies and priorities and suggest management strategies at a local planning scale across key regions in the biodiversity hotspot.     

Aetiology-Specific Estimates of the Global and Regional Incidence and Mortality of Diarrhoeal Diseases Commonly Transmitted through Food

Background

Diarrhoeal diseases are major contributors to the global burden of disease, particularly in children. However, comprehensive estimates of the incidence and mortality due to specific aetiologies of diarrhoeal diseases are not available. The objective of this study is to provide estimates of the global and regional incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases caused by nine pathogens that are commonly transmitted through foods.

Methods and Findings

We abstracted data from systematic reviews and, depending on the overall mortality rates of the country, applied either a national incidence estimate approach or a modified Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) approach to estimate the aetiology-specific incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases, by age and region. The nine diarrhoeal diseases assessed caused an estimated 1.8 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.1–3.3 billion) cases and 599,000 (95% UI 472,000–802,000) deaths worldwide in 2010. The largest number of cases were caused by norovirus (677 million; 95% UI 468–1,153 million), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) (233 million; 95% UI 154–380 million), Shigella spp. (188 million; 95% UI 94–379 million) and Giardia lamblia (179 million; 95% UI 125–263); the largest number of deaths were caused by norovirus (213,515; 95% UI 171,783–266,561), enteropathogenic E. coli (121,455; 95% UI 103,657–143,348), ETEC (73,041; 95% UI 55,474–96,984) and Shigella (64,993; 95% UI 48,966–92,357). There were marked regional differences in incidence and mortality for these nine diseases. Nearly 40% of cases and 43% of deaths caused by these nine diarrhoeal diseases occurred in children under five years of age.

Conclusions

Diarrhoeal diseases caused by these nine pathogens are responsible for a large disease burden, particularly in children. These aetiology-specific burden estimates can inform efforts to reduce diarrhoeal diseases caused by these nine pathogens commonly transmitted through foods.     

A large‐scale field assessment of carbon stocks in human‐modified tropical forests

Tropical rainforests store enormous amounts of carbon, the protection of which represents a vital component of efforts to mitigate global climate change. Currently, tropical forest conservation, science, policies, and climate mitigation actions focus predominantly on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation alone. However, every year vast areas of the humid tropics are disturbed by selective logging, understory fires, and habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need to understand the effect of such disturbances on carbon stocks, and how stocks in disturbed forests compare to those found in undisturbed primary forests as well as in regenerating secondary forests. Here, we present the results of the largest field study to date on the impacts of human disturbances on above and belowground carbon stocks in tropical forests. Live vegetation, the largest carbon pool, was extremely sensitive to disturbance: forests that experienced both selective logging and understory fires stored, on average, 40% less aboveground carbon than undisturbed forests and were structurally similar to secondary forests. Edge effects also played an important role in explaining variability in aboveground carbon stocks of disturbed forests. Results indicate a potential rapid recovery of the dead wood and litter carbon pools, while soil stocks (0–30 cm) appeared to be resistant to the effects of logging and fire. Carbon loss and subsequent emissions due to human disturbances remain largely unaccounted for in greenhouse gas inventories, but by comparing our estimates of depleted carbon stocks in disturbed forests with Brazilian government assessments of the total forest area annually disturbed in the Amazon, we show that these emissions could represent up to 40% of the carbon loss from deforestation in the region. We conclude that conservation programs aiming to ensure the long‐term permanence of forest carbon stocks, such as REDD+, will remain limited in their success unless they effectively avoid degradation as well as deforestation.     

The Grove of Giants: Tasmania's most carbon-dense forest

The Grove of Giants in the Huon Valley of Tasmania, Australia is renowned for its large trees. A team of tree climbers and citizen scientists undertook a carbon assessment of a 2 hectare plot within the Grove of Giants. The largest 16 trees in the plot (>2.5 m DBH) were measured by tree climbers allowing for accurate estimation of tree volume. Understory trees, coarse woody debris, root biomass and soil carbon were also estimated, making this study the most comprehensive assessment of forest carbon in Tasmania. Total forest carbon was estimated to be 1312 tonnes per hectare. Large trees had the highest carbon stocks, accounting for 44% of the total store. Coarse woody debris represented 19% of the forest's carbon, root biomass was 14%, while the understory trees accounted for 12% and soil carbon for 11%. This is the highest carbon stock recorded in Tasmania and is above the average estimates for temperate forest ecosystems in other parts of the world. Protecting Tasmania's forests, especially mature wet Eucalypt forests, is important to avoid potential greenhouse gas emissions and ensure safe storage of the carbon in the land sector.