Climate Change and War Frequency in Eastern China over the Last Millennium

We explore the association between climate change and warfare in eastern China over the past millennium from a macro-historic perspective. High-resolution palaeo-temperature reconstructions and the complete record of warfare incidence in eastern China were compared. Results show that warfare frequency in eastern China (its southern portion in particular) significantly correlated with the Northern Hemisphere temperature oscillations. Almost all peaks of warfare frequency and dynastic changes occurred in cooling phases. We suggest that in historic China, the reduction of thermal energy during cooling phases significantly shrank agricultural production. Such ecological stress interacted with population pressure and China’s unique historic and geographic setting to bring about the high frequencies of warfare over the last millennium. We recommend scholars take climate change into account as they consider the anthropology of warfare in the historic past.     

Study on Climate Vegetation Classification for Global Change in China

The study on climate-vegetation relationship is the basis for determining the re sponse of terrestrial ecosystem to global change. By means of quantitative analysis on climate-vegetation interaction, vegetation types and their distribution pattern could be corresponded with certain climatic types in a series of mathematical forms. Thus, the climate could be used to predict vegetation types and their distribution, the same is in reverse. Potential evapotranspiration rate is a comprehensive climatological index which combines temperature with precipitation, and could be used to evaluate the effect of climate on vegetation. In this respect, Holdridge life zone system has been drawing much attention and widely applied internationally owing to its simplicity. It is especially used in the assessment of sensibility of terrestrial ecosystems and their distribution in accordance with climate change and in prediction of the changing pattern of vegetation under doubled CO2 condition. However, Prentice (1990) pointed out that the accurancy of Holdridge life zone system is less than 40 % when it is used at global scale. The reason may be that the potential evapotranspiration calculated by Thornthwaite method, which is used in Holdridge life zone system, reflects the potential evapotranspiration from small evaporated area, while climate-vegetation classification is based on the regional scale. The authors try to establish a new climate-vegetation classification system based on the regional potential evapotranspiration. According to the following formula: where E designates regional actual evapotranspiration: Ep local potential evapotran-spiration: Epo, regional potential evapotranspiration. Ed can be calculated from Penman model or other models. E can be calculated from the following model: E=r · Rn (r2+Rn2+r · Rn) / (2) (r+Rn) · (r2+Rn2)where r designates precipitation (mm); Rn, net radiation (mm). Thus, Ep0 can be easily obtained. It is used as the regional thermal index (RTI) of climate-vegetation classification,and can be expressed as: RTl = Epo (3) Moisture index is another index of climate-veggetation classification. Usually, it can be expressed as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. However, this ratio can not reflect soil moisture, which is important for plant. The ratio between regional actual evapotranspiration and regional potential evapotranspiration is associated not only with climatic condition but also with soil moisture. So it can be used as the moisture index of climate-vegetation classification, and is defined as regional moisture index (RMI): RMI = E/Epo (5) Based on the average climatological data of 30 years from 647 meteorological observation stations in China. It was found that RTl could well reflect a regional thermal level. The values of RTI were less than 360 mm in cold temperate zone, 360～650 mm in temperate zone, 650～380 mm in warm temperate zone, 780～1100 mm in subtropical zone. And more than 1100 mm in tropical zone. RMI also reflects a regional moisture level very well. The values of RMI was less than 0.4 in desert area, 0.4～0.7 in grassland area and more than 0.7 in forest area. Thus, the climate-vegetation classification in China is established on the basis of the two indices: RTI and RMI. According to this model, the changing patterns of vegetation zones in China are given under the conditions of mean annual temperature in creasing by 2℃ and 4℃ and mean annual precipitation increasing by 20%. The results showed that the areas of forest and grassland would decrease, the vegetation zones would move northward and upward, and the area of desert would increase. The results also indicate that the Tibetan Plateau is an area highly sensitive to global change. It could be considered as an indicative or forewarning area for global change , and therefore, an area of great siginificance for monitoring and research. The possible beneficial effect of global change on China terrestrial ecosystems is that the plantation boundary will move northwards and upwards; and the disadvantageous effect is the expansion of desertification and the increase of instability in climatic conditions.     

Vegetation and Climate Variations at Taibai, Qinling Mountains in Central China for the Last 3 500 cal BP

Pollen records of two swamp sections, located at Taibai Mountain, the highest peak in the Qinling Mountains of central China, show variations of vegetation and climate for the last 3 500 cal BP. The pollen assemblage at the Foyechi and Sanqingchi sections and the surface soil pollen allowed us to reconstruct a high-altitude vegetation history at Taibai Mountain for the first time. The data indicated that there was a cold-dry climate interval between 3 500 and 3 080 cal BP and a relatively warm and wet period compared with the present from 3 080 to 1 860 cal BP. The warmest period in the late Holocene on Taibai Mountain was from 1 430 to 730 cal BP, with an approximate 2℃ increase in mean annual temperature compared with today.There was a relatively cool-dry climate interval from 730 to 310 cal BP. After 310 cal BP, a mountain tundra vegetation developed again and the position of the modern tree line was established.     

A note on the dynamics of montane virginPicea yezoensis forest in the Greater Khingan Mts,Northeastern China

The vertical growth ofLarix gmelini in the north of the Greater Khingan Mts., north-eastern China is very fast during the first 50 yr. ThoughPinus sylvestris var.mongolica shows a higher growth rate, it will be replaced by the larch population.Picea jezoensis is the most tolerant tree species and will replace all other trees.The fire cycle is 110–120 yr. Most of the montane areas from 800 to 1000 m a.s.l. are not occupied by spruce forest.There is a sapling bank with large numbers of saplings at ages below 20 yr in the understory in the spruce forest. The sapling bank is the key to maintain the steady state of the spruce forest. The persistent sapling bank in the life history of spruce governs the dynamics of the spruce forest controlled by the intensity and frequency of disturbances.The author is H. Q. Wu     

湖南岳麓山植被演替趋势

在系统调查岳麓山现有植被的基础上,通过TWINSPAN、DCA、生态住分析、种群结构分析,并结合历史文献,研究了岳麓山植被的现状与演替.结果表明,经过30年城市公园管理,岳麓山次生植被正在向地带性植被亚热带常绿阔叶林恢复.其主要演替途径为:灌丛或人工林→针阔混交林或常绿阔叶落叶混交林→常绿阔叶林.近顶级或顶级群落以樟树(Cinnamomum camphora)、苦槠(Castanopsis sclerophylla)、青冈(Cyclobalanopsis glauca)、栲(Castanopsis fargesii)、石栎(Lithocarpus gluer)等为优势种.马尾松(Pinusmassoniana)种群严重衰退,著名景观植物枫香(Liquidambar formosana)的种群虽表现出一定程度衰退,但仍将作为一种优势种存在较长时期.研究结果建议种植青冈、栲、石栎、木荷(Schima superba)等作为岳麓山林分改造的目标种.     

末次冰期南海巽他陆架上的植被和气候——17962孔孢粉记录

提供了南海大陆坡上17962孔深海沉积物的孢粉记录.该孔长8 m,底部14C年龄为30 000 a BP,跨越了深海氧同位素3期、末次冰期、冰消期和全新世几个地质历史阶段.孢粉记录显示末次冰期低海面时南海南部出露的陆架上覆盖了低地雨林.同时,在邻近的岛屿上山地雨林扩张,表明气候比现在凉,但是没有变干的迹象.冰消期植被和气候都经历了快速变暖和变凉的波动.全新世时,红树林和低地雨林的扩张以及孢粉沉积率的明显降低均表明气候变暖,海面上升,大陆架被淹没.     

大兴安岭北坡多年冻土区植物生态特征及其对冻土退化的响应

多年冻土和植被是寒区生态系统的重要组成部分。随着全球气候变暖,多年冻土逐渐退化,导致土壤水分以及有机质含量降低,进而对地上植被产生影响。对大兴安岭北坡多年冻土区植物生态特征及其对冻土退化的响应进行了研究。结果表明,调查的30个多年冻土区共有85种植物,隶属于29个科,55个属。其中,蕨类植物1种,占种组成的1.2%;裸子植物1种,占种组成的1.2%;被子植物83种,占种组成的97.6%。在4种生活型中,以地面芽植物的种类最多,为51种,占植物种数的60%;地下芽和高位芽植物次之,分别为12和19种,分别占14.1%和22.4%;地上芽植物较少,为3种,占3.5%。在4种水分生态类型中,以中生植物种类最多,为50种,占植物种数的58.8%;湿生植物次之,为26种,占30.6%;沼生植物为7种,占8.2%;旱生植物最少,为2种,占2.4%。冻土活动层厚度50—150cm范围内,植物的科、属、种数最多,其次是大于150cm范围的冻土区,活动层厚度较小(50cm)时,植物科、属、种数最少。随着活动层厚度的增加,即多年冻土退化,地面芽植物的物种数显著增加(P0.05),高位芽植物的物种数显著减少(P0.05),地上芽和地下芽植物的物种数随活动层厚度的变化不显著。随着活动层厚度的增加,沼生植物的物种数显著降低(P0.05),中生植物的物种数显著增加(P0.05),湿生和旱生植物的物种数随活动层厚度的变化不显著,群落植物组成从湿生逐渐向中生转变。     

一条河流的挽歌——物种灭绝、气候变迁及长江生物多样性保护的最后希望

<正>淡水生物多样性受到全球性威胁,在世界上大型河流中生存的一些体型最大的、最有魅力的物种正在面临灭绝。其中一个标志性的物种是白鱀豚,它已于2007年被公布成为第一个因为人类活动造成功能性灭绝的鲸类物种。作为白鱀豚科唯一的代表物种,它的灭绝标志着一个进化枝系的消失。不幸的是,白鱀豚只是长江众多受到严重威胁的物     

末次冰期南海巽他陆架上的植被和气候——17962孔孢粉记录

提供了南海大陆坡上17962孔深海沉积物的孢粉记录。该孔长8m,底部^14C年龄为30000aBP,跨越了深海氧同位素3期,末次初期,冰消期和全新世几个地质历史阶段。孢偻记录显示末次冰期低海面时南海南部出露的陆架上了低地雨林。同时,在邻近的岛屿上山地雨林扩张,表明气候比较在凉,但是没有变干的迹象,冰消期植被和气候都经历了快速变暖的变凉的波动。全新世时,红树林和低地雨林的扩及孢粉沉积率的明显降低均表明气候变暖,海面上升,大陆架被淹没。     

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on the Aboveground Carbon Sequestration Rate of a Temperate Forest in Northeastern China

The aboveground carbon sequestration rate (ACSR) reflects the influence of climate change on forest dynamics. To reveal the long-term effects of climate change on forest succession and carbon sequestration, a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS Pro7.0) was used to simulate the ACSR of a temperate forest at the community and species levels in northeastern China based on both current and predicted climatic data. On the community level, the ACSR of mixed Korean pine hardwood forests and mixed larch hardwood forests, fluctuated during the entire simulation, while a large decline of ACSR emerged in interim of simulation in spruce-fir forest and aspen-white birch forests, respectively. On the species level, the ACSR of all conifers declined greatly around 2070s except for Korean pine. The ACSR of dominant hardwoods in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, such as Manchurian ash, Amur cork, black elm, and ribbed birch fluctuated with broad ranges, respectively. Pioneer species experienced a sharp decline around 2080s, and they would finally disappear in the simulation. The differences of the ACSR among various climates were mainly identified in mixed Korean pine hardwood forests, in all conifers, and in a few hardwoods in the last quarter of simulation. These results indicate that climate warming can influence the ACSR in the Lesser Khingan Mountains area, and the largest impact commonly emerged in the A2 scenario. The ACSR of coniferous species experienced higher impact by climate change than that of deciduous species.     

大兴安岭不同演替阶段天然林物种多度格局模拟

为实现大兴安岭地区落叶松天然林的全周期可持续经营,以新林林业局翠岗林场3块100m×100m不同演替阶段(白桦林、落叶松-白桦混交林和落叶松林)的天然林固定调查样地数据为基础,采用统计模型(对数正态模型)、生态位模型(断棍模型、生态位优先占领模型、Zipf模型、Zipf-Mandelbrot模型)和中性模型(群落零和多项式模型、Volkov模型)对不同演替阶段天然林的乔木层、幼苗层和由乔木层划分的不同林层的物种多度格局进行拟合,并用χ² 检验和Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验选择最佳模型。结果表明:(1) 在大兴安岭地区不同演替阶段的落叶松天然林群落中,Zipf-Mandelbrot模型的拟合效果均最好。(2) 对数正态模型对于稳定的演替阶段白桦林和落叶松林的群落相较于过渡阶段群落落叶松-白桦混交林的物种多度分布的拟合效果更好。(3) 在大兴安岭地区落叶松天然林中,生境过滤主导群落构建,随着群落不断演替生境过滤和中性过程减弱。(4) 天然林群落乔木层的群落构建过程与乔木层内不同生长阶段林层的构建过程不同,生境过滤过程在落叶松林乔木层中逐渐减弱,而在落叶松林不同生长阶段的林层和更新层中增强。     

Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the United States

The Kyoto protocol has focused the attention of the public and policymarkers on the earth's carbon (C) budget. Previous estimates of the impacts of vegetation change have been limited to equilibrium “snapshots” that could not capture nonlinear or threshold effects along the trajectory of change. New models have been designed to complement equilibrium models and simulate vegetation succession through time while estimating variability in the C budget and responses to episodic events such as drought and fire. In addition, a plethora of future climate scenarios has been used to produce a bewildering variety of simulated ecological responses. Our objectives were to use an equilibrium model (Mapped Atmosphere–Plant–Soil system, or MAPSS) and a dynamic model (MC1) to (a) simulate changes in potential equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical conditions and across a wide gradient of future temperature changes to look for consistencies and trends among the many future scenarios, (b) simulate time-dependent changes in vegetation distribution and its associated C pools to illustrate the possible trajectories of vegetation change near the high and low ends of the temperature gradient, and (c) analyze the extent of the US area supporting a negative C balance. Both models agree that a moderate increase in temperature produces an increase in vegetation density and carbon sequestration across most of the US with small changes in vegetation types. Large increases in temperature cause losses of C with large shifts in vegetation types. In the western states, particularly southern California, precipitation and thus vegetation density increase and forests expand under all but the hottest scenarios. In the eastern US, particularly the Southeast, forests expand under the more moderate scenarios but decline under more severe climate scenarios, with catastrophic fires potentially causing rapid vegetation conversions from forest to savanna. Both models show that there is a potential for either positive or negative feedbacks to the atmosphere depending on the level of warming in the climate change scenarios. Received 12 May 2000; accepted 22 November 2000.     

A Preliminary Study on Vegetation and Climate Changes in Dianchi Lake Area in the Last 40000 Years

This paper presents results of pollen analysis on sediments of core Cao 2 from Dianchi Lake. Four pollen zones are defined, namely zone I, which is further divided into four subzones, zone Ⅱ, zone Ⅲ and zone Ⅳ. Zone Ⅰ(ca. 47600–11800 yrs B. P.) is characterized by low land pollen sedimentation rates and constant presence of Abies pollen. In zone Ⅱ (ca. 11800–6900 yrs B. P.) broad-leaved tree pollen increases and Abies pollen gradually disappears. In zone Ⅲ (ca. 6900–3800 yrs B. P.) evergreen broad-leaved-tree pollen and total land pollen influx reach their maximum values while, Tsuga pollen decreases. Zone Ⅳ shows a great decreases in pollen influx of various pollen types and a increase in Monolete psilate spores. In the past 40000 years vegetation in this area trend changes from a dominantion of coniferous tree to an evergreen broad-leaved forest, co-existing or mixing deciduous broadleaved forest and coniferous forest. In the past 3800 years, due to climate changes and / or human activities, the vegetation cover in this area has been greatly reduced. The above vegetation changes indicate a climate change process from cool and humid, to warm and humid and finally to mild and dry.     

Quantifying Regional Vegetation Cover Variability in North China during the Holocene: Implications for Climate Feedback

Validating model simulations of vegetation-climate feedback needs information not only on changes in past vegetation types as reconstructed by palynologists, but also on other proxies such as vegetation cover. We present here a quantitative regional vegetation cover reconstruction for North China during the Holocene. The reconstruction was based on 15 high-quality lake sediment profiles selected from 55 published sites in North China, along with their modern remote sensing vegetation index. We used the surface soil pollen percentage to build three pollen-vegetation cover transfer models, and used lake surface sediment pollen data to validate their accuracy. Our results showed that vegetation cover in North China increased slightly before its maximum at 6.5 cal ka BP and has since declined significantly. The vegetation decline since 6.5 cal ka BP has likely induced a regional albedo change and aerosol increase. Further comparison with paleoclimate and paleovegetation dynamics in South China reproduced the regional cooling effect of vegetation cover decline in North China modelled in previous work. Our discussion demonstrates that, instead of reconstructing vegetation type from a single site, reconstructing quantitative regional vegetation cover could offer a broader understanding of regional vegetation-climate feedback.     

大兴安岭北坡多年冻土区植物群落分类及其物种多样性对冻土融深变化的响应

气候变化背景下冻土环境对地上植物群落的影响备受关注。鉴于此,选择了大兴安岭北坡作为研究区,应用双向指示种分析(TWINSPAN)和典范对应分析法(CCA)对大兴安岭北坡不同冻土融深的30个样地进行了群落分类,分析了物种多样性对冻土融深的响应。结果表明,1)研究区30个沟谷冻土样地植物群落可划分为3个群丛组,TWINSPAN的分类结果很好的反映了群丛组的分布与冻土融深的关系,即随着冻土融深由浅变深,群落由柴桦(Betula fruticosa)+狭叶杜香(Ledum palustrevar.angustum)-苔草(Carex subpediformis)群丛组逐渐过渡到柴桦(Betula fruticosa)-苔草(Carex subpediformis)群丛组和柴桦(Betula fruticosa)+细叶沼柳(Salix rosmarinifolia)-苔草(Carex subpediformis)群丛组,并在CCA二维排序图上得到了验证;2)地上植物群落的物种多样性指数随着冻土融深的增加表现出先上升后下降的单峰变化趋势;在50cmPMD≤150cm时,物种多样性指数较高。研究结果对冻土区的森林管理以及生物多样性保护具有一定地指导意义。     

Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region

Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.     

180,000 Years of Climate Change in Europe: Avifaunal Responses and Vegetation Implications

Providing an underutilized source of information for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, birds are rarely used to infer paleoenvironments despite their well-known ecology and extensive Quaternary fossil record. Here, we use the avian fossil record to investigate how Western Palearctic bird assemblages and species ranges have changed across the latter part of the Pleistocene, with focus on the links to climate and the implications for vegetation structure. As a key issue we address the full-glacial presence of trees in Europe north of the Mediterranean region, a widely debated issue with evidence for and against emerging from several research fields and data sources. We compiled and analyzed a database of bird fossil occurrences from archaeological sites throughout the Western Palearctic and spanning the Saalian-Eemian-Weichselian stages, i.e. 190,000–10,000 years BP. In general, cold and dry-adapted species dominated these late Middle Pleistocene and Late Pleistocene fossil assemblages, with clear shifts of northern species southwards during glacials, as well as northwards and westwards shifts of open-vegetation species from the south and east, respectively and downwards shifts of alpine species. A direct link to climate was clear in Northwestern Europe. However, in general, bird assemblages more strongly reflected vegetation changes, underscoring their usefulness for inferring the vegetation structure of past landscapes. Forest-adapted birds were found in continuous high proportions throughout the study period, providing support for the presence of trees north of the Alps, even during full-glacial stages. Furthermore, the results suggest forest-dominated but partially open Eemian landscapes in the Western Palearctic, including the Northwestern European subregion.     

秦岭山地植被净初级生产力及对气候变化的响应

基于1999~2009年的NDVI数据和气象数据,利用CASA模型对秦岭山地植被净初级生产力（Net primary productivity,NPP）进行模拟估算,并分析了秦岭NPP的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：1999~2009年11年间秦岭山地的平均年NPP为542.24 gC·m^-2·a^-1;研究期内秦岭NPP呈显著增长趋势（P<0.01）,2008年最高（718.77 gC·m^-2·a^-1）,2001年最低（471.78 gC·m^-2·a^-1）;四季对全年NPP的贡献率大小依次为夏季（49.90%）>春季（26.16%）>秋季（18.87%）>冬季（5.07%）;月NPP与温度和降水都显著相关,但与温度的相关性更高,月水平上温度对NPP的影响比降水大;生长季期间NPP与温度和降水的相关性在空间分布上都以正相关为主。     

原始红松林退化演替后土壤氮矿化特征变化

土壤氮矿化是氮素生物地理化学循环的重要环节,表征着土壤的供氮潜力,其变化过程会影响森林生态系统生产力。从小兴安岭典型的原始红松林及其退化形成的次生阔叶林样地采集土壤样品,采用好气室内培养法,研究在不同培养温度(4℃、12℃、20℃、28℃和36℃)和湿度(20%、40%、60%、80%和100%饱和持水量,WHC)下,2种林地土壤氮转化速率的变化。结果表明:与原始红松林相比,次生阔叶林表层土(0—20 cm)的有机质、全碳、全氮、硝态氮、碳/氮比、全磷、速效磷、速效钾、pH值均显著升高,铵态氮显著降低(P0.05)。采用方差分析结果表明:原始红松林表层土壤的净矿化速率、净硝化速率均显著低于次生阔叶林,但净氨化速率的变化则相反;培养温度和湿度及两者的交互作用均对土壤氮转化速率影响显著(P0.001)。原始红松林和次生阔叶林净矿化速率对温度和湿度变化的响应存在一定差异,最适温度和湿度分别为28℃—36℃和60%(WHC)。原始红松林土壤氮矿化温度敏感性指数(Q_(10))显著高于次生阔叶林(P0.05),均值分别为2.08和1.80,Q_(10)与基质质量指数(A)呈负相关,与土壤有机质呈极显著负相关(P0.01)。