Climate Change and War Frequency in Eastern China over the Last Millennium

We explore the association between climate change and warfare in eastern China over the past millennium from a macro-historic perspective. High-resolution palaeo-temperature reconstructions and the complete record of warfare incidence in eastern China were compared. Results show that warfare frequency in eastern China (its southern portion in particular) significantly correlated with the Northern Hemisphere temperature oscillations. Almost all peaks of warfare frequency and dynastic changes occurred in cooling phases. We suggest that in historic China, the reduction of thermal energy during cooling phases significantly shrank agricultural production. Such ecological stress interacted with population pressure and China’s unique historic and geographic setting to bring about the high frequencies of warfare over the last millennium. We recommend scholars take climate change into account as they consider the anthropology of warfare in the historic past.     

湖南岳麓山植被演替趋势

在系统调查岳麓山现有植被的基础上,通过TWINSPAN、DCA、生态住分析、种群结构分析,并结合历史文献,研究了岳麓山植被的现状与演替.结果表明,经过30年城市公园管理,岳麓山次生植被正在向地带性植被亚热带常绿阔叶林恢复.其主要演替途径为:灌丛或人工林→针阔混交林或常绿阔叶落叶混交林→常绿阔叶林.近顶级或顶级群落以樟树(Cinnamomum camphora)、苦槠(Castanopsis sclerophylla)、青冈(Cyclobalanopsis glauca)、栲(Castanopsis fargesii)、石栎(Lithocarpus gluer)等为优势种.马尾松(Pinusmassoniana)种群严重衰退,著名景观植物枫香(Liquidambar formosana)的种群虽表现出一定程度衰退,但仍将作为一种优势种存在较长时期.研究结果建议种植青冈、栲、石栎、木荷(Schima superba)等作为岳麓山林分改造的目标种.     

A note on the dynamics of montane virginPicea yezoensis forest in the Greater Khingan Mts,Northeastern China

The vertical growth ofLarix gmelini in the north of the Greater Khingan Mts., north-eastern China is very fast during the first 50 yr. ThoughPinus sylvestris var.mongolica shows a higher growth rate, it will be replaced by the larch population.Picea jezoensis is the most tolerant tree species and will replace all other trees.The fire cycle is 110–120 yr. Most of the montane areas from 800 to 1000 m a.s.l. are not occupied by spruce forest.There is a sapling bank with large numbers of saplings at ages below 20 yr in the understory in the spruce forest. The sapling bank is the key to maintain the steady state of the spruce forest. The persistent sapling bank in the life history of spruce governs the dynamics of the spruce forest controlled by the intensity and frequency of disturbances.The author is H. Q. Wu     

Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the United States

The Kyoto protocol has focused the attention of the public and policymarkers on the earth's carbon (C) budget. Previous estimates of the impacts of vegetation change have been limited to equilibrium “snapshots” that could not capture nonlinear or threshold effects along the trajectory of change. New models have been designed to complement equilibrium models and simulate vegetation succession through time while estimating variability in the C budget and responses to episodic events such as drought and fire. In addition, a plethora of future climate scenarios has been used to produce a bewildering variety of simulated ecological responses. Our objectives were to use an equilibrium model (Mapped Atmosphere–Plant–Soil system, or MAPSS) and a dynamic model (MC1) to (a) simulate changes in potential equilibrium vegetation distribution under historical conditions and across a wide gradient of future temperature changes to look for consistencies and trends among the many future scenarios, (b) simulate time-dependent changes in vegetation distribution and its associated C pools to illustrate the possible trajectories of vegetation change near the high and low ends of the temperature gradient, and (c) analyze the extent of the US area supporting a negative C balance. Both models agree that a moderate increase in temperature produces an increase in vegetation density and carbon sequestration across most of the US with small changes in vegetation types. Large increases in temperature cause losses of C with large shifts in vegetation types. In the western states, particularly southern California, precipitation and thus vegetation density increase and forests expand under all but the hottest scenarios. In the eastern US, particularly the Southeast, forests expand under the more moderate scenarios but decline under more severe climate scenarios, with catastrophic fires potentially causing rapid vegetation conversions from forest to savanna. Both models show that there is a potential for either positive or negative feedbacks to the atmosphere depending on the level of warming in the climate change scenarios. Received 12 May 2000; accepted 22 November 2000.     

Quantifying Regional Vegetation Cover Variability in North China during the Holocene: Implications for Climate Feedback

Validating model simulations of vegetation-climate feedback needs information not only on changes in past vegetation types as reconstructed by palynologists, but also on other proxies such as vegetation cover. We present here a quantitative regional vegetation cover reconstruction for North China during the Holocene. The reconstruction was based on 15 high-quality lake sediment profiles selected from 55 published sites in North China, along with their modern remote sensing vegetation index. We used the surface soil pollen percentage to build three pollen-vegetation cover transfer models, and used lake surface sediment pollen data to validate their accuracy. Our results showed that vegetation cover in North China increased slightly before its maximum at 6.5 cal ka BP and has since declined significantly. The vegetation decline since 6.5 cal ka BP has likely induced a regional albedo change and aerosol increase. Further comparison with paleoclimate and paleovegetation dynamics in South China reproduced the regional cooling effect of vegetation cover decline in North China modelled in previous work. Our discussion demonstrates that, instead of reconstructing vegetation type from a single site, reconstructing quantitative regional vegetation cover could offer a broader understanding of regional vegetation-climate feedback.     

秦岭山地植被净初级生产力及对气候变化的响应

基于1999~2009年的NDVI数据和气象数据,利用CASA模型对秦岭山地植被净初级生产力（Net primary productivity,NPP）进行模拟估算,并分析了秦岭NPP的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：1999~2009年11年间秦岭山地的平均年NPP为542.24 gC·m^-2·a^-1;研究期内秦岭NPP呈显著增长趋势（P<0.01）,2008年最高（718.77 gC·m^-2·a^-1）,2001年最低（471.78 gC·m^-2·a^-1）;四季对全年NPP的贡献率大小依次为夏季（49.90%）>春季（26.16%）>秋季（18.87%）>冬季（5.07%）;月NPP与温度和降水都显著相关,但与温度的相关性更高,月水平上温度对NPP的影响比降水大;生长季期间NPP与温度和降水的相关性在空间分布上都以正相关为主。     

180,000 Years of Climate Change in Europe: Avifaunal Responses and Vegetation Implications

Providing an underutilized source of information for paleoenvironmental reconstructions, birds are rarely used to infer paleoenvironments despite their well-known ecology and extensive Quaternary fossil record. Here, we use the avian fossil record to investigate how Western Palearctic bird assemblages and species ranges have changed across the latter part of the Pleistocene, with focus on the links to climate and the implications for vegetation structure. As a key issue we address the full-glacial presence of trees in Europe north of the Mediterranean region, a widely debated issue with evidence for and against emerging from several research fields and data sources. We compiled and analyzed a database of bird fossil occurrences from archaeological sites throughout the Western Palearctic and spanning the Saalian-Eemian-Weichselian stages, i.e. 190,000–10,000 years BP. In general, cold and dry-adapted species dominated these late Middle Pleistocene and Late Pleistocene fossil assemblages, with clear shifts of northern species southwards during glacials, as well as northwards and westwards shifts of open-vegetation species from the south and east, respectively and downwards shifts of alpine species. A direct link to climate was clear in Northwestern Europe. However, in general, bird assemblages more strongly reflected vegetation changes, underscoring their usefulness for inferring the vegetation structure of past landscapes. Forest-adapted birds were found in continuous high proportions throughout the study period, providing support for the presence of trees north of the Alps, even during full-glacial stages. Furthermore, the results suggest forest-dominated but partially open Eemian landscapes in the Western Palearctic, including the Northwestern European subregion.     

Structural and Psycho-Social Limits to Climate Change Adaptation in the Great Barrier Reef Region

Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder workshops and key-informant interviews with representatives of the fisheries and tourism sectors of the Great Barrier Reef region, we identify psycho-social and structural limits associated with key adaptation strategies, and examine how these are perceived as more or less absolute across levels of organisation. We find that actors experience social limits to adaptation when: i) the effort of pursuing a strategy exceeds the benefits of desired adaptation outcomes; ii) the particular strategy does not address the actual source of vulnerability, and; iii) the benefits derived from adaptation are undermined by external factors. We also find that social limits are not necessarily more absolute at higher levels of organisation: respondents perceived considerable opportunities to address some psycho-social limits at the national-international interface, while they considered some social limits at the local and regional levels to be effectively absolute.     

Vegetation Controls on Weathering Intensity during the Last Deglacial Transition in Southeast Africa

Tropical climate is rapidly changing, but the effects of these changes on the geosphere are unknown, despite a likelihood of climatically-induced changes on weathering and erosion. The lack of long, continuous paleo-records prevents an examination of terrestrial responses to climate change with sufficient detail to answer questions about how systems behaved in the past and may alter in the future. We use high-resolution records of pollen, clay mineralogy, and particle size from a drill core from Lake Malawi, southeast Africa, to examine atmosphere-biosphere-geosphere interactions during the last deglaciation (∼18–9 ka), a period of dramatic temperature and hydrologic changes. The results demonstrate that climatic controls on Lake Malawi vegetation are critically important to weathering processes and erosion patterns during the deglaciation. At 18 ka, afromontane forests dominated but were progressively replaced by tropical seasonal forest, as summer rainfall increased. Despite indication of decreased rainfall, drought-intolerant forest persisted through the Younger Dryas (YD) resulting from a shorter dry season. Following the YD, an intensified summer monsoon and increased rainfall seasonality were coeval with forest decline and expansion of drought-tolerant miombo woodland. Clay minerals closely track the vegetation record, with high ratios of kaolinite to smectite (K/S) indicating heavy leaching when forest predominates, despite variable rainfall. In the early Holocene, when rainfall and temperature increased (effective moisture remained low), open woodlands expansion resulted in decreased K/S, suggesting a reduction in chemical weathering intensity. Terrigenous sediment mass accumulation rates also increased, suggesting critical linkages among open vegetation and erosion during intervals of enhanced summer rainfall. This study shows a strong, direct influence of vegetation composition on weathering intensity in the tropics. As climate change will likely impact this interplay between the biosphere and geosphere, tropical landscape change could lead to deleterious effects on soil and water quality in regions with little infrastructure for mitigation.     

Effects of Climate Change and a Doubling of CO2 on Vegetation Diversity

A model is presented for predicting the response of global familydiversity to global environmental change. The model assumesthat three primary mechanisms determine diversity: the capacityto survive the absolute minimum temperature of a site, the abilityto complete the life cycle in a given length and warmth of thegrowing season, and the capacity to expand leaves in a definedregime of precipitation and vegetation transpiration. The directeffects of CO₂ on vegetation transpiration are also included. About one-third of the floristic regions of the world exhibitincreased diversity with a 3°C increase in temperature,a 10% increase in precipitation, and a doubling of the CO2 concentration.The addition of CO₂ offsets the increased rates of transpiration,caused by global warming through its capacity to reduce transpiration.As a consequence, the diversity of dry regions displayed thegreatest increase in diversity due to increased CO₂.     

Pollen and Phytolith Evidence for Rice Cultivation and Vegetation Change during the Mid-Late Holocene at the Jiangli Site,Suzhou, East China

Pollen and phytolith analyses were undertaken at the Jiangli site in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, combined with studies on macrofossils by flotation. The concentration of pollen decreased while the percentage of Poaceae pollen in the profile increased from the late phase of the Majiabang Culture to the Songze Culture suggesting that human impact on the local environment intensified gradually. The discovery of rice paddy implies a relatively advanced rice cultivation in this area during the middle-late Holocene. Other than phytoliths, the high percentage of Oryza-type Poaceae pollen (larger than 40 µm) supplied robust evidence for the existence of rice paddy. Moreover, the fact that the farther from the rice paddy, the lower the concentration and percentage of Poaceae pollen also proves that the dispersal and deposition of pollen is inversely proportional to the distance.     

Spatio-Temporal Variation in Vegetation Biomass and Its Relationships with Climate Factors in the Xilingol Grasslands,Northern China

Knowledge about grassland biomass and its dynamics is critical for studying regional carbon cycles and for the sustainable use of grassland resources. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal variation of biomass in the Xilingol grasslands of northern China. Field-based biomass samples and MODIS time series data sets were used to establish two empirical models based on the relationship of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with above-ground biomass (AGB) as well as that of AGB with below-ground biomass (BGB). We further explored the climatic controls of these variations. Our results showed that the biomass averaged 99.01 Tg (1 Tg=10¹² g) over a total area of 19.6×10⁴ km² and fluctuated with no significant trend from 2001 to 2012. The mean biomass density was 505.4 g/m², with 62.6 g/m² in AGB and 442.8 g/m² in BGB, which generally decreased from northeast to southwest and exhibited a large spatial heterogeneity. The year-to-year AGB pattern was generally consistent with the inter-annual variation in the growing season precipitation (GSP), showing a robust positive correlation (R²=0.82, P<0.001), but an opposite coupled pattern was observed with the growing season temperature (GST) (R²=0.61, P=0.003). Climatic factors also affected the spatial distribution of AGB, which increased progressively with the GSP gradient (R²=0.76, P<0.0001) but decreased with an increasing GST (R²=0.70, P<0.0001). An improved moisture index that combined the effects of GST and GSP explained more variation in AGB than did precipitation alone (R²=0.81, P<0.0001). The relationship between AGB and GSP could be fit by a power function. This increasing slope of the GSP–AGB relationships along the GSP gradient may be partly explained by the GST–GSP spatial pattern in Xilingol. Our findings suggest that the relationships between climatic factors and AGB may be scale-dependent and that multi-scale studies and sufficient long-term field data are needed to examine the relationships between AGB and climatic factors.     

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO₂ sequestration capacity.     

Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan,China

Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield (WY) of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and –51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang) increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water-conserving agricultural practices should be implemented as adaptive strategies to mitigate climate change.     

Functional Trait Changes,Productivity Shifts and Vegetation Stability in Mountain Grasslands during a Short-Term Warming

Plant functional traits underlie vegetation responses to environmental changes such as global warming, and consequently influence ecosystem processes. While most of the existing studies focus on the effect of warming only on species diversity and productivity, we further investigated (i) how the structure of community plant functional traits in temperate grasslands respond to experimental warming, and (ii) whether species and functional diversity contribute to a greater stability of grasslands, in terms of vegetation composition and productivity. Intact vegetation turves were extracted from temperate subalpine grassland (highland) in the Eastern Pyrenees and transplanted into a warm continental, experimental site in Lleida, in Western Catalonia (lowland). The impacts of simulated warming on plant production and diversity, functional trait structure, and vegetation compositional stability were assessed. We observed an increase in biomass and a reduction in species and functional diversity under short-term warming. The functional structure of the grassland communities changed significantly, in terms of functional diversity and community-weighted means (CWM) for several traits. Acquisitive and fast-growing species with higher SLA, early flowering, erect growth habit, and rhizomatous strategy became dominant in the lowland. Productivity was significantly positively related to species, and to a lower extent, functional diversity, but productivity and stability after warming were more dependent on trait composition (CWM) than on diversity. The turves with more acquisitive species before warming changed less in composition after warming. Results suggest that (i) the short-term warming can lead to the dominance of acquisitive fast growing species over conservative species, thus reducing species richness, and (ii) the functional traits structure in grassland communities had a greater influence on the productivity and stability of the community under short-term warming, compared to diversity effects. In summary, short-term climate warming can greatly alter vegetation functional structure and its relation to productivity.     

Mountain Weather and Climate: A General Overview and a Focus on Climatic Change in the Alps

Meteorological and climatic processes in mountain regions play a key role in many environmental systems, in particular the quantity and quality of water that influences both aquatic ecosystems and economic systems often far beyond the boundaries of the mountains themselves. This paper will provide a general overview of some of the particular characteristics of mountain weather and climate, to highlight some of the unique atmospheric features that are associated with regions of complex topography. The second part of the paper will focus upon characteristics of climate and climatic change in the European Alps, a region with a wealth of high quality data that allows an assessment on how climate and dependent environmental systems have evolved in the course of the 20th century and how alpine climate may undergo further changes to “global warming” in the 21st century, as the atmosphere responds to increasing levels of greenhouse gases that are expected in coming decades.     

Disentangling the Role of Climate,Topography and Vegetation in Species Richness Gradients

Environmental gradients (EG) related to climate, topography and vegetation are among the most important drivers of broad scale patterns of species richness. However, these different EG do not necessarily drive species richness in similar ways, potentially presenting synergistic associations when driving species richness. Understanding the synergism among EG allows us to address key questions arising from the effects of global climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Herein, we use variation partitioning (also know as commonality analysis) to disentangle unique and shared contributions of different EG in explaining species richness of Neotropical vertebrates. We use three broad sets of predictors to represent the environmental variability in (i) climate (annual mean temperature, temperature annual range, annual precipitation and precipitation range), (ii) topography (mean elevation, range and coefficient of variation of elevation), and (iii) vegetation (land cover diversity, standard deviation and range of forest canopy height). The shared contribution between two types of EG is used to quantify synergistic processes operating among EG, offering new perspectives on the causal relationships driving species richness. To account for spatially structured processes, we use Spatial EigenVector Mapping models. We perform analyses across groups with distinct dispersal abilities (amphibians, non-volant mammals, bats and birds) and discuss the influence of vagility on the partitioning results. Our findings indicate that broad scale patterns of vertebrate richness are mainly affected by the synergism between climate and vegetation, followed by the unique contribution of climate. Climatic factors were relatively more important in explaining species richness of good dispersers. Most of the variation in vegetation that explains vertebrate richness is climatically structured, supporting the productivity hypothesis. Further, the weak synergism between topography and vegetation urges caution when using topographic complexity as a surrogate of habitat (vegetation) heterogeneity.