COVID-19 and “natural” experiments arising from physical distancing: a hypothetical case study from chronobiology

ABSTRACT

With countless “natural” experiments triggered by the COVID-19-associated physical distancing, one key question comes from chronobiology: “When confined to homes, how does the reduced exposure to natural daylight arising from the interruption of usual outdoor activities plus lost temporal organization ordinarily provided from workplaces and schools affect the circadian timing system (the internal 24 h clock) and, consequently, health of children and adults of all ages?” Herein, we discuss some ethical and scientific facets of exploring such natural experiments by offering a hypothetical case study of circadian biology.     

The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions – Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach

Decisions on public health measures to contain a pandemic are often based on parameters such as expected disease burden and additional mortality due to the pandemic. Both pandemics and non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight pandemics, however, produce economic, social, and medical costs. The costs are, for example, caused by changes in access to healthcare, social distancing, and restrictions on economic activity. These factors indirectly influence health outcomes in the short- and long-term perspective. In a narrative review based on targeted literature searches, we develop a comprehensive perspective on the concepts available as well as the challenges of estimating the overall disease burden and the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions from both epidemiological and economic perspectives, particularly during the early part of a pandemic. We review the literature and discuss relevant components that need to be included when estimating the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review presents data sources and different forms of death counts, and discusses empirical findings on direct and indirect effects of the pandemic and interventions on disease burden as well as the distribution of health risks.     

Effects of altered photoperiod due to COVID-19 lockdown on pregnant women and their fetuses

ABSTRACT

Maternal circadian rhythms provide highly important input into the entrainment and programming of fetal and newborn circadian rhythms. The light-dark cycle is an important regulator of the internal biological clock. Even though pregnant women spend a greater part of the day at home during the latter stages of pregnancy, natural light exposure is crucial for the fetus. The current recommended COVID-19 lockdown might dramatically alter normal environmental lighting conditions of pregnant women, resulting in exposure to extremely low levels of natural daylight and high-intensity artificial light sources during both day and night. This article summarizes the potential effects on pregnant woman and their fetuses due to prolonged exposure to altered photoperiod and as consequence altered circadian system, known as chronodisruption, that may result from the COVID-19 lockdown.     

Endocrine Follow-up During Post-Acute COVID-19: Practical Recommendations Based on Available Clinical Evidence

ObjectiveCOVID-19 affects multiple endocrine organ systems during the disease course. However, follow-up data post-COVID-19 is scarce; hitherto available limited data suggest that most of the biochemical endocrine dysfunctions observed during acute phase of COVID-19 tend to improve after recovery. Hence, we aim to provide a rational approach toward endocrine follow-up of patients during post-acute COVID-19.MethodsWe performed a literature review across PubMed/MEDLINE database looking into the effects of COVID-19 on endocrine system and subsequent long-term endocrine sequelae. Accordingly, we have presented a practical set of recommendations regarding endocrine follow-up post-acute COVID-19.ResultsCOVID-19 can lead to new-onset hyperglycemia/diabetes mellitus or worsening of dysglycemia in patients with preexisting diabetes mellitus. Hence, those with preexisting diabetes mellitus should ensure optimum glycemic control in the post-COVID-19 period. New-onset diabetes mellitus has been described post-acute COVID-19; hence, a selected group of patients (aged <70 years and those requiring intensive care unit admission) may be screened for the same at 3 months. Thyroid dysfunction (euthyroid sick syndrome and atypical thyroiditis) and adrenal insufficiency have been described in COVID-19; however, thyroid/adrenal functions usually normalize on follow-up; hence, widespread screening post-acute COVID-19 should not be recommended. Pituitary apoplexy and male hypogonadism have rarely been documented in COVID-19; therefore, appropriate follow-up may be undertaken as per clinical context. Hypocalcemia during COVID-19 is not uncommon; however, routine estimation of serum calcium post-COVID-19 is not warranted.ConclusionThe recommendations herein provide a rational approach that would be expected to guide physicians to better delineate and manage the endocrine sequelae during post-acute COVID-19.     

COVID-19 pandemic and patients with cancer: The protocol of a Clinical Oncology center in Tehran,Iran

AimTo provide recommendations for the management of patients with cancer in the COVID-19 era.BackgroundThe current global pandemic of COVID-19 has severely impacted global healthcare systems. Several groups of people are considered high-risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection, including patients with cancer. Therefore, protocols for the better management of these patients during this viral pandemic are necessary. So far, several protocols have been presented regarding the management of patients with cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, none of them points to a developing country with limited logistics and facilities.MethodsIn this review, we have provided a summary of recommendations on the management of patients with cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic based on our experience in Shohada-e Tajrish Hospital, Iran.ResultsWe recommend that patients with cancer should be managed in an individualized manner during the COVID-19 pandemic.ConclusionsOur recommendation provides a guide for oncology centers of developing countries for better management of cancer.     

COVID-19 and indirect health implications in Africa: Impact,mitigation measures,and lessons learned for improved disease control

Seth Inzaule and co-authors discuss implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for health in African countries.

Summary points

• Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the mitigation measures taken to limit its spread have significantly disrupted other essential health services in Africa. This disruption has threatened the control of major high-burden diseases such as HIV, tuberculosis (TB), and malaria as well as the prevention of maternal and child mortality.
• While the 2020 WHO global reports for HIV, TB, and malaria show progress in control of these diseases in African countries, there are still significant gaps in meeting the global targets. Similarly, modeling studies predict that most African countries are unlikely to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030 targets for reductions in maternal and child mortality under the current rate of progress.
• Prediction models and emerging empirical data indicate that the implemented mitigation measures against COVID-19 such as travel restrictions and lockdowns as well as the repurposing of health resources and suspension of prevention programs such as immunizations will lead to an increase in new infections and deaths, significantly reversing the gains achieved in the control of these health challenges.
• A more comprehensive COVID-19 response that minimizes indirect deaths is therefore warranted in Africa. These include implementing WHO recommendations that limit contact with the clinic where possible, such as multimonths drug dispensing, self-testing, virtual platforms for case management, community- and home-based prevention, and care services such as home distribution of test kits, vaccines, treatment, and mosquito nets.
• This is in addition to ensuring effective implementation of COVID-19 infection prevention and control measures in healthcare facilities including providing healthcare workers with personal protective equipment and prioritizing them for COVID-19 immunization.
• There is also a need to incorporate aggressive recovery plans to reverse the lost gains in disease control efforts and put African countries back on course toward achieving the global targets. This includes leveraging on the wider COVID-19 response enablements such as the increased political will and global solidarity funding efforts to support a more comprehensive response that accounts for the indirect public health effects of the pandemic.

     

Effectiveness of social distancing interventions in containing COVID-19 incidence: International evidence using Kalman filter

The epidemiological literature has widely documented the importance of social distancing interventions in containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the epidemiological measure of virus reproduction, R₀, provides a myopic view of containment, especially when the absolute number of cases is still high. The paper investigates cross-country variations concerning the impact of social distancing interventions on COVID-19 incidence by employing a statistical measure of containment, which models the daily number of cases as a structural time-series, state-space vector. Countries that adopt strict lockdown policies and provide economic support in the form of income augmentations and debt relief improve the response towards the pandemic. Countries like China and South Korea have been most influential in containing the spread of infections. European nations of France, Italy, Spain and the UK are witnessing a second wave of the virus, indicating that re-opening the European economy perhaps has instigated an exponential spread.     

Applying digital technology to promote active and healthy confinement lifestyle during pandemics in the elderly

Although recognized as effective measures to curb the spread of the COVID19 outbreak, social distancing and home confinement have generated a mental health burden with older adults who are considered to be more vulnerable to psychosocial strains. To date, the application of digital technologies in response to COVID-19 pandemic has been narrowed to public-health needs related to containment and mitigation. However, information and communications technology (ICT)-based initiatives directed toward prediction and prevention of psychosocial support are still limited. Given the power of digital health solutions to allow easy and accurate characterization and intervention for health and disease, as well as to flatten the COVID19 incidence curves in many countries, our ECLB-COVID19 consortium is highlighting the importance of providing innovative ICT-based solutions (ICT-COVID-Companion) to improve elderly physical and mental health, thereby preventing/dampening psychosocial strain during pandemics. Based on innovative approaches (e.g., emotional/social computing, open social platform, interactive coaching, gamification, fitness-tracker, internet of things) and smart digital solutions (smartwatch/smartphone), smart companions must provide safe personalised physical, mental and psychosocial health surveillance. Additionally, by delivering personalised multi-dimension crisis-oriented health recommendations, such innovative crisis-oriented solutions would help (i) facilitate a user’s adherence to active and healthy confinement lifestyle (AHCL), (ii) achieve a rapid psychosocial recovery in case of depression issues and (iii) enhance preparedness for eventual future pandemics.     

Physical activity and exercise as an essential medical strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond

COVID-19 disease has been a problem in today’s society, which has worldwide effects on different areas, especially on the economy; also, from a health perspective, the disease affects the daily life quality. Physical activity is one major positive factor with regard to enhancing life quality, as it can improve the whole psychological, social, and physical health conditions. Current measures such as social distancing are focused on preventing the viral spread. However, the consequences on other areas are yet to be investigated. Elderly, people with chronic diseases, obese, and others benefit largely from exercise from the perspective of improved health, and preventive measures can drastically improve daily living. In this article, we elaborate the effects of exercise on the immune system and the possible strategies that can be implemented toward greater preventive potential.     

Focus: Preventive Medicine: The Impact of the Social Distancing Policy on COVID-19 Incidence Cases and Deaths in Iran from February 2020 to January 2021: Insights from an Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background: In December 2019, a viral outbreak occurred in China, and rapidly spread out worldwide. Due to the lack of immediately available vaccines and effective drugs, many policy- and decision-makers have focused on non-pharmacological methods, including social distancing. This study was aimed at assessing the effects of the implementation of this policy in Iran, one of the countries most affected by COVID-19. We conducted a quasi-experimental study, utilizing the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) approach. Methods: We collected daily data between February 20, 2020 and January 29, 2021, through governmental websites from 954 public hospitals and healthcare settings. The Iranian government launched the social distancing policy on March 27, 2020. Statistical analyses, including ITSA, were carried out with R software Version 3.6.1 (London, UK). Results: During the study period, 1,398,835 confirmed incidence cases and 57,734 deaths occurred. We found a decrease of -179.93 (95% CI: -380.11 to -20.25, P-value=0.078) confirmed incidence cases following the implementation of the social distancing policy, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -31.17 (95% CI: -46.95 to -15.40, P-value=0.08). Moreover, we found a decrease of -28.28 (95% CI: -43.55 to -13.01, P-value=0.05) deaths, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -4.52 (95% CI: -5.25 to -3.78, P-value=0.003). Conclusion: The growth rate of confirmed incidence cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Iran has decreased from March 27, 2020 to January 29, 2021, after the implementation of social distancing. By implementing this policy in all countries, the burden of COVID-19 may be mitigated.     

Changes in physical activity and energy intake according to abdominal obesity in Korean adult men before and after COVID-19: Data from 2019 and 2020 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES)

[Purpose] This study aimed to investigate changes in physical activity and energy intake according to abdominal obesity in Korean adult men before and after COVID-19.[Methods] Using data from the 2019 and 2020 KNHANES, the physical activity level measured by the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) the physical activity level by GPAQ, number of days of walking and strength training, aerobic exercise, and total energy, protein, fat, carbohydrate, dietary fiber, and sugar intake for a total of 2,799 participants were analyzed.[Results] There were no changes in energy intake during the pandemic. The number of days of weekly walking was higher (2019, p = 0.006; 2020, p = 0.012) and strength training was significantly higher (2019, p < 0.0001; 2020 p < 0.0001) in the non-abdominal obesity group than in the abdominal obesity group before and after COVID-19. Strength training at least once a week suppressed abdominal obesity (0.628 times in 2019, p < 0.0001; 0.605 times in 2020, p < 0.0001). In addition, even when the total energy intake and age were adjusted for, strength training influenced the suppression of abdominal obesity (0.634 times in 2019, p < 0.0001; 0.614 times in 2020, p < 0.0001).[Conclusion] Even with the change in the physical activity level, such as walking and aerobic exercise, due to the influence of social distancing measures, strength training influenced the suppression of abdominal obesity, regardless of the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Measured voluntary avoidance behaviour during the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic

Managing infectious disease is among the foremost challenges for public health policy. Interpersonal contacts play a critical role in infectious disease transmission, and recent advances in epidemiological theory suggest a central role for adaptive human behaviour with respect to changing contact patterns. However, theoretical studies cannot answer the following question: are individual responses to disease of sufficient magnitude to shape epidemiological dynamics and infectious disease risk? We provide empirical evidence that Americans voluntarily reduced their time spent in public places during the 2009 A/H1N1 swine flu, and that these behavioural shifts were of a magnitude capable of reducing the total number of cases. We simulate 10 years of epidemics (2003–2012) based on mixing patterns derived from individual time-use data to show that the mixing patterns in 2009 yield the lowest number of total infections relative to if the epidemic had occurred in any of the other nine years. The World Health Organization and other public health bodies have emphasized an important role for ‘distancing’ or non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our empirical results suggest that neglect for voluntary avoidance behaviour in epidemic models may overestimate the public health benefits of public social distancing policies.     

COVID-19 pandemic lockdown-induced altered sleep/wake circadian rhythm,health complaints and stress among traffic police personnel in India

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus-2, capable of high human transmission. To protect against the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization proposed intervening guidance that included movement restrictions, isolation, restriction of national and international travel or movement, and full or partial closure of organizations and institutions. Police personnel play a vital role in safeguarding the spread of COVID-19; thus, potentially causing severe stress due to increased consignment and direct exposure to infection during duty. The study aimed to determine the effect of the added stress of the COVID-19 pandemic and population lockdown on the sleep/wake 24 h rhythm of traffic police. A concise online questionnaire survey was conducted among the traffic police personnel of India. Collected data were analyzed statistically. Disorientation of working schedule, fear of being vulnerable to disease, pressure of maintaining law, and orders during lockdown increased stress level. The survey identified discontinuation of sleep, shift of mid-sleep time, increase in depression, plus stress and anxiety among traffic police personnel that affected their chronobiological milieu. Proper awareness of adequate health and safety measures, use of personnel protection equipment, regular conversation with family members, and meditation can help reduce stress during this pandemic situation.     

Understanding COVID-19 vaccine demand and hesitancy: A nationwide online survey in China

BackgroundThis study attempts to understand coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine demand and hesitancy by assessing the public’s vaccination intention and willingness-to-pay (WTP). Confidence in COVID-19 vaccines produced in China and preference for domestically-made or foreign-made vaccines was also investigated.MethodsA nationwide cross-sectional, self-administered online survey was conducted on 1–19 May 2020. The health belief model (HBM) was used as a theoretical framework for understanding COVID-19 vaccination intent and WTP.ResultsA total of 3,541 complete responses were received. The majority reported a probably yes intent (54.6%), followed by a definite yes intent (28.7%). The perception that vaccination decreases the chances of getting COVID-19 under the perceived benefit construct (OR = 3.14, 95% CI 2.05–4.83) and not being concerned about the efficacy of new COVID-19 vaccines under the perceived barriers construct (OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.31–2.09) were found to have the highest significant odds of a definite intention to take the COVID-19 vaccine. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) of WTP for COVID-19 vaccine was CNY¥200/US$28 (IQR CNY¥100–500/USD$14–72). The highest marginal WTP for the vaccine was influenced by socio-economic factors. The majority were confident (48.7%) and completely confident (46.1%) in domestically-made COVID-19 vaccine. 64.2% reported a preference for a domestically-made over foreign-made COVID-19 vaccine.ConclusionsThe findings demonstrate the utility of HBM constructs in understanding COVID-19 vaccination intent and WTP. It is important to improve health promotion and reduce the barriers to COVID-19 vaccination.     

Global diversity of dietary intakes and standards for zinc,iron, and copper

BackgroundThe essentiality of trace elements in human diets is well recognized and adequate levels are a critical component of optimal health. To date, public health efforts have focused primarily on macronutrients or trace minerals that are easily analyzed. The goal of this research is to provide assessment of the dietary standards developed for Zn, Fe, and Cu in 100+ developed, marginal, and developing countries. We summarize the current recommendations and changes from the last decade, categorize and provide scientific basis for values established, factors that affect requirements, and current global challenges.MethodsThe electronic databases of Google Scholar, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library were searched using the keywords “trace minerals,” “micronutrients, ““zinc,” “iron,” “copper,” “dietary standards” and “recommendations.” A total of 123 studies published from 1965 to 2019 were included.ResultsThe World Health Organization (WHO) has established dietary standards to address nutrient deficiencies, prevent infections and ensure basic metabolic functions; these are utilized by most developing countries. Developed countries or their alliances have established values similar to or higher than the WHO, primarily for promotion of optimal health and well-being. Transitional countries are more concerned with issues of bioavailability, food security and undernutrition. Globally, Zn and Cu recommendations are lower in women than in men; Fe requirements are higher to compensate for menstrual losses. Important considerations in establishing guidelines for these minerals include bioaccessibility, dietary practices and restrictions, food processing, interactions, and chemical forms. The global challenges of the triple burden of malnutrition, hidden hunger, increased consumption of ultra-processed foods and obesity have been associated with Zn, Fe, and Cu deficiencies.ConclusionThis research provides public policy and health professionals evidenced-based information useful for the establishment of dietary standards world-wide.     

Spatial analysis of COVID-19 spread in Iran: Insights into geographical and structural transmission determinants at a province level

The Islamic Republic of Iran reported its first COVID-19 cases by 19^th February 2020, since then it has become one of the most affected countries, with more than 73,000 cases and 4,585 deaths to this date. Spatial modeling could be used to approach an understanding of structural and sociodemographic factors that have impacted COVID-19 spread at a province-level in Iran. Therefore, in the present paper, we developed a spatial statistical approach to describe how COVID-19 cases are spatially distributed and to identify significant spatial clusters of cases and how socioeconomic and climatic features of Iranian provinces might predict the number of cases. The analyses are applied to cumulative cases of the disease from February 19^th to March 18^th. They correspond to obtaining maps associated with quartiles for rates of COVID-19 cases smoothed through a Bayesian technique and relative risks, the calculation of global (Moran’s I) and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA), both univariate and bivariate, to derive significant clustering, and the fit of a multivariate spatial lag model considering a set of variables potentially affecting the presence of the disease. We identified a cluster of provinces with significantly higher rates of COVID-19 cases around Tehran (p-value< 0.05), indicating that the COVID-19 spread within Iran was spatially correlated. Urbanized, highly connected provinces with older population structures and higher average temperatures were the most susceptible to present a higher number of COVID-19 cases (p-value < 0.05). Interestingly, literacy is a factor that is associated with a decrease in the number of cases (p-value < 0.05), which might be directly related to health literacy and compliance with public health measures. These features indicate that social distancing, protecting older adults, and vulnerable populations, as well as promoting health literacy, might be useful to reduce SARS-CoV-2 spread in Iran. One limitation of our analysis is that the most updated information we found concerning socioeconomic and climatic features is not for 2020, or even for a same year, so that the obtained associations should be interpreted with caution. Our approach could be applied to model COVID-19 outbreaks in other countries with similar characteristics or in case of an upturn in COVID-19 within Iran.     

Novel coronavirus mitigation measures implemented by radiotherapy centres in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review

BackgroundThe aim of the study was to identify strategies adopted by radiotherapy centres in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to mitigate the effects of COVID-19. Studies summarising COVID-19 mitigation strategies designed and implemented by radiotherapy centres in LMICs to avoid delays, deferrments and interruptions of radiotherapy services are lacking.Materials and methodsA systematic review was conducted and reported in accordance with the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis guideline. Ovid Embase, Ovid MEDLINE and CINAHL were searched for peer-reviewed articles that reported measures adopted by radiotherapy centres in LMICs to reduce the risk of COVID-19. Information on different strategies were extracted from the included studies and textual narrative synthesis was conducted.ResultsOf 60 articles retrieved, eleven were included. Majority of the studies were conducted in China. Ten of the included studies employed a qualitative design. Four themes were identified: preparing and equipping staff; reinforcing infection prevention and control policies; strengthening coordination and communication; and maintaining physical distancing. Studies reported that radiotherapy centres had: formed COVID-19 response multidisciplinary team; maximised the use of telehealth; adjusted the layout of waiting areas; divided staff into teams; dedicated a room for isolating suspected cases; and adopted triage systems.ConclusionsLocal adaptation of established global strategies coupled with timely development of guidelines, flexibility and innovation have allowed radiotherapy leaders to continue to deliver radiotherapy services to cancer patients in LMICs during the COVID-19 crisis. Robust data collection must be encouraged in LMICs to provide an evidence-based knowledge for use in the event of another pandemic.     

Deep learning representations to support COVID-19 diagnosis on CT slices

Introduction: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a significant public health problem worldwide. In this context, CT-scan automatic analysis has emerged as a COVID-19 complementary diagnosis tool allowing for radiological finding characterization, patient categorization, and disease follow-up. However, this analysis depends on the radiologist’s expertise, which may result in subjective evaluations.Objective: To explore deep learning representations, trained from thoracic CT-slices, to automatically distinguish COVID-19 disease from control samples.Materials and methods: Two datasets were used: SARS-CoV-2 CT Scan (Set-1) and FOSCAL clinic’s dataset (Set-2). The deep representations took advantage of supervised learning models previously trained on the natural image domain, which were adjusted following a transfer learning scheme. The deep classification was carried out: (a) via an end-to-end deep learning approach and (b) via random forest and support vector machine classifiers by feeding the deep representation embedding vectors into these classifiers.Results: The end-to-end classification achieved an average accuracy of 92.33% (89.70% precision) for Set-1 and 96.99% (96.62% precision) for Set-2. The deep feature embedding with a support vector machine achieved an average accuracy of 91.40% (95.77% precision) and 96.00% (94.74% precision) for Set-1 and Set-2, respectively.Conclusion: Deep representations have achieved outstanding performance in the identification of COVID-19 cases on CT scans demonstrating good characterization of the COVID-19 radiological patterns. These representations could potentially support the COVID-19 diagnosis in clinical settings.     

Operational response simulation tool for epidemics within refugee and IDP settlements: A scenario-based case study of the Cox’s Bazar settlement

The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations most affected. Given their density and available infrastructure, refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) settlements can be particularly susceptible to disease spread. In this paper we present an agent-based modeling approach to simulating the spread of disease in refugee and IDP settlements under various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. The model, based on the June open-source framework, is informed by data on geography, demographics, comorbidities, physical infrastructure and other parameters obtained from real-world observations and previous literature. The development and testing of this approach focuses on the Cox’s Bazar refugee settlement in Bangladesh, although our model is designed to be generalizable to other informal settings. Our findings suggest the encouraging self-isolation at home of mild to severe symptomatic patients, as opposed to the isolation of all positive cases in purpose-built isolation and treatment centers, does not increase the risk of secondary infection meaning the centers can be used to provide hospital support to the most intense cases of COVID-19. Secondly we find that mask wearing in all indoor communal areas can be effective at dampening viral spread, even with low mask efficacy and compliance rates. Finally, we model the effects of reopening learning centers in the settlement under various mitigation strategies. For example, a combination of mask wearing in the classroom, halving attendance regularity to enable physical distancing, and better ventilation can almost completely mitigate the increased risk of infection which keeping the learning centers open may cause. These modeling efforts are being incorporated into decision making processes to inform future planning, and further exercises should be carried out in similar geographies to help protect those most vulnerable.