Interactive life‐history traits predict sensitivity of plants and animals to temporal autocorrelation

Temporal autocorrelation in demographic processes is an important aspect of population dynamics, but a comprehensive examination of its effects on different life‐history strategies is lacking. We use matrix population models from 454 plant and animal populations to simulate stochastic population growth rates (log λ_s) under different temporal autocorrelations in demographic rates , using simulated and observed covariation among rates. We then test for differences in sensitivities, or changes of log λ_s to changes in autocorrelation among two major axes of life‐history strategies, obtained from phylogenetically informed principal component analysis: the fast‐slow and reproductive‐strategy continua. Fast life histories exhibit highest sensitivities to simulated autocorrelation in demographic rates across reproductive strategies. Slow life histories are less sensitive to temporal autocorrelation, but their sensitivities increase among highly iteroparous species. We provide cross‐taxonomic evidence that changes in the autocorrelation of environmental variation may affect a wide range of species, depending on complex interactions of life‐history strategies.     

Linking demographic responses and life history tactics from longitudinal data in mammals

In stochastic environments, a change in a demographic parameter can influence the population growth rate directly or via a resulting impact on age structure. Stochastic elasticity of the long‐run stochastic growth rate λ_s to a demographic parameter offers a suitable way to measure the overall demographic response because it includes both the direct effect of changing the demographic parameter and its indirect effect through changes in the age structure. From 25 mammalian populations with contrasting life histories, we investigated how pace of life and population growth rate influence the demographic responses (measured as the relative contributions of the direct and indirect components of stochastic elasticity on λ_s). We found that in short‐lived species, the change in population structure resulting from an increase in yearling survival leads to an additional increase in λ_s, whereas in long‐lived species, the same change in population structure leads to a decrease. Short‐lived species thus display a boom‐bust life history strategy contrary to long‐lived species, for which the long lifespan dampens the demographic consequences of changing age structure. Irrespective of the species’ life history strategy, the change in population age structure resulting from an increase in adult survival leads to an additional increase in λ_s due to an increase of the proportion of mature individuals in the population. On the contrary, a change in population age structure resulting from an increase of reproductive performance leads to a decrease in λ_s that is due to the increase of the proportion of immature individuals in the population. Our comparative analysis of stochastic elasticity patterns in mammals shows the existence of different demographic responses to changes in age structure between short‐ and long‐lived species, which improves our understanding of population dynamics in variable environments in relation to the species‐specific pace of life.     

Demographic responses of Pinguicula ionantha to prescribed fire: a regression-design LTRE approach

This study describes the use of periodic matrix analysis and regression-design life table response experiments (LTRE) to investigate the effects of prescribed fire on demographic responses of Pinguicula ionantha, a federally listed plant endemic to the herb bog/savanna community in north Florida. Multi-state mark–recapture models with dead recoveries were used to estimate survival and transition probabilities for over 2,300 individuals in 12 populations of P. ionantha. These estimates were applied to parameterize matrix models used in further analyses. P. ionantha demographics were found to be strongly dependent on prescribed fire events. Periodic matrix models were used to evaluate season of burn (either growing or dormant season) for fire return intervals ranging from 1 to 20 years. Annual growing and biannual dormant season fires maximized population growth rates for this species. A regression design LTRE was used to evaluate the effect of number of days since last fire on population growth. Maximum population growth rates calculated using standard asymptotic analysis were realized shortly following a burn event (<2 years), and a regression design LTRE showed that short-term fire-mediated changes in vital rates translated into observed increases in population growth. The LTRE identified fecundity and individual growth as contributing most to increases in post-fire population growth. Our analyses found that the current four-year prescribed fire return intervals used at the study sites can be significantly shortened to increase the population growth rates of this rare species. Understanding the role of fire frequency and season in creating and maintaining appropriate habitat for this species may aid in the conservation of this and other rare herb bog/savanna inhabitants. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Linking environmental and demographic data to predict future population viability of a perennial herb

Recent advances in stochastic demography provide tools to examine the importance of random and periodic variation in vital rates for population dynamics. In this study, we explore with simulations the effect of disturbance regime on population dynamics and viability. We collected 7 years of demographic data in three populations of the perennial herb Primula farinosa, and used these data to examine how variation in vital rates affected population viability parameters (stochastic growth rate, λ_S), and how vital rates were related to weather conditions. Elasticity analysis indicated that the stochastic growth rate was very sensitive to changes in regeneration, quantified as the production, survival, and germination of seeds. In one of the study years, all seedlings and mature plants in the demography plots died. This extinction coincided with the driest summer during the study period. Simulations suggested that a future increase in the frequency of high-mortality years due to climate change would result in reduced population growth rate, and an increased importance of survival in the seed bank for population viability. The results illustrate how the limited demographic data typically available for many natural systems can be used in simulation models to assess how environmental change will affect population viability.     

Dynamics of age- and size-structured populations in fluctuating environments: Applications of stochastic matrix models to natural populations

Recent developments of the theory of stochastic matrix modeling have made it possible to estimate general properties of age- and size-structured populations in fluctuating environments. However, applications of the theory to natural populations are still few. The empirical studies which have used stochastic matrix models are reviewed here to examine whether predictions made by the theory can be generally found in wild populations. The organisms studied include terrestrial grasses and herbs, a seaweed, a fish, a reptile, a deer and some marine invertebrates. In all the studies, the stochastic population growth rate (ln λ _s ) was no greater than the deterministic population growth rate determined using average vital rates, suggesting that the model based only on average vital rates may overestimate growth rates of populations in fluctuating environments. Factors affecting ln λ _s include the magnitude of variation in vital rates, probability distribution of random environments, fluctuation in different types of vital rates, covariances between vital rates, and autocorrelation between successive environments. However, comprehensive rules were hardly found through the comparisons of the empirical studies. Based on shortcomings of previous studies, I address some important subjects which should be examined in future studies.     

Stochastic LTRE analysis of the effects of herbivory on the population dynamics of a perennial grassland herb

Herbivores can have strong deleterious effects on vital rates (growth, reproduction, and survival) and thus negatively impact the population dynamics of plant species. In practice, however, these effects might be strongly correlated, for example as a result of tradeoffs between vital rates. To get better insights into the effects of herbivory on the population dynamics of the long‐lived grassland plant Primula veris population projection matrices were constructed from demographic data collected between 1999 and 2008 (nine annual transitions). Data were collected in two large grassland populations, each of which was subjected to two treatments (grazing by cattle versus a mowing treatment), yielding a total of 36 matrices. We applied a lower‐level vital rate life table response experiment (LTRE) using the small noise approximation (SNA) of the stochastic population growth rate to disentangle the contributions of changes in mean vital rates, variability in vital rates, correlations between vital rates and vital rate elasticities to the difference in the stochastic growth rate. Stochastic growth rates (a= log λ_S) were significantly lower in grazed than in mown plots (a= 0.0185 and 0.1019, respectively). SNA LTRE analysis showed that contributions of mean vital rates by far made the largest contribution to the observed difference in a between grazed and control plots. In particular, changes in sexual reproduction rates made the largest contributions to lower the stochastic growth rate in grazed plots: both adult flowering probabilities and flower and seed production were importantly lower in grazed populations, but these negative effects were largely buffered by increased establishment and seedling survival rates. Among the stochastic terms of the SNA decomposition, contributions of covariance and correlations between vital rates had the largest impact, whereas contributions of elasticities were smaller. The strongest correlation driver was the association between adult survival and seedling establishment, suggesting that environmental conditions favouring adult survival also are beneficial for seedling establishment. Overall, our results show that herbivory had a strong negative effect on the long‐term population growth rate of P. veris that was primarily mediated by differences in fecundity (flower and seed production) and germination.     

Recruitment rates exhibit high elasticity and high temporal variation in populations of a short-lived perennial herb

Empirical studies for different life histories have shown an inverse relationship between elasticity (i.e. the proportional contribution to population growth rate) and temporal variation in vital rates. It is accepted that this relationship indicates the effect of selective pressures in reducing variation in those life‐history traits with a major impact on fitness. In this paper, we sought to determine whether changes in environmental conditions affect the relationship between elasticity of vital rates and their temporal variation, and whether vital rates with simultaneously large elasticity and temporal variation might represent a characteristic life‐history strategy. We used demographic data on 13 populations of the short‐lived Hypericum cumulicola over 5–6 years, in three time‐since‐fire classes. For each population of each time‐since‐fire, we computed the mean matrix over years and its respective elasticity matrix, and the coefficients of variation in matrix entries over study years as an estimate of temporal variability. We found that mean elasticity negatively significantly correlated with temporal variation in vital rates in populations (overall eight out of 13) included in each time‐since‐fire. However, seedling recruitment exhibited both high elasticity and high temporal variation in almost all study populations. These results indicated that (1) the general relationship between elasticity and temporal variation in vital rates was not modified by environmental changes due to time‐since‐fire, and (2) high elasticity and high temporal variation in seedling recruitment in H. cumulicola is a particular trait of the species' life history. After seed survival in the soil seed bank, seedling recruitment represents the most important life‐history trait influencing H. cumulicola population growth rate (and fitness). The high temporal variability in seedling recruitment suggests that this trait is determined by environmental cues, leading to an increase in population size and subsequent replenishment of the seed bank in favorable years.     

Dispersal and recruitment dynamics in the fleshy‐fruited Persoonia lanceolata (Proteaceae)

Question: What is the role of dispersal, persistent soil seed banks and seedling recruitment in population persistence of fleshy‐fruited obligate seeding plant species in fire‐prone habitats? Location: Southeastern Australia. Methods: We used a long‐term study of a shrubby, fleshy‐fruited Persoonia species (Proteaceae) to examine (1) seed removal from beneath the canopy of adult plants; (2) seedling recruitment after fire; (3) the magnitude and location of the residual soil seed bank; and (4) the implications for fire management of obligate seeding species. We used demographic sampling techniques combined with Generalised Linear Modelling and regression to quantify population changes over time. Results: Most of the mature fruits (90%) on the ground below the canopy of plants were removed by Wallabia bicolor (Swamp wallaby) with 88% of seeds extracted from W. bicolor scats viable and dormant. Wallabies play an important role in moving seeds away from parent plants. Their role in occasional long distance dispersal events remains unknown. We detected almost no seed predation in situ under canopies (< 1%). Seedling recruitment was cued to fire, with post‐fire seedling densities 6‐7 times pre‐fire adult densities. After fire, a residual soil seed bank was present, as many seeds (77‐100%) remained dormant and viable at a soil depth where successful future seedling emergence is possible (0‐5 cm). Seedling survival was high (> 80%) with most mortality within 2 years of emergence. Plant growth averaged 17 cm per year. The primary juvenile period of plants was 7–8 years, within the period of likely return fire intervals in the study area. We predicted that the study population increased some five‐fold after the wildfire at the site. Conclusions: Residual soil seed banks are important, especially in species with long primary juvenile periods, to buffer the populations against the impact of a second fire occurring before the seed bank is replenished.     

Spatial data replacing temporal data in population viability analyses: An empirical investigation for plants

In conservation management, there is an urgent need for estimates of population viability and for knowledge of the contributions of different life-history stages to population growth rates. Collection of long-term demographic data from a study population is time-consuming and may considerably delay the start of proper management actions. We examined the possibility of replacing a long-term temporal data set (demographic data from several years within a population) with a short-term spatial data set (demographic data from different populations for the same subset of two continuous years) for stochastic estimates of population viability. Using matrix population models for ten perennial plant species, we found that the matrix elements of spatial data sets often deviated from those of temporal data sets and that matrix elements generally varied more spatially than temporally. The appropriateness of replacing temporal data with spatial data depended on the subset of years and populations used to estimate stochastic population growth rates (log λ_s). Still, the precision of log λ_s estimates measured as variation in the yearly change of logarithmic population size rarely differed significantly between the spatial and temporal data sets. Since a spatiotemporal comparison of matrix elements and their variation cannot be used to assess whether spatial and temporal data sets are interchangeable, we recommend further research on the topic.     

Evidence for physiological seed dormancy cycling in the woody shrub Asterolasia buxifolia and its ecological significance in fire‐prone systems

• Dormancy cycling is a key mechanism that contributes to the maintenance of long‐term persistent soil seed banks, but has not been recorded in long‐lived woody shrub species from fire‐prone environments. Such species rely on seed banks and dormancy break as important processes for post‐fire recruitment and recovery.
• We used germination experiments with smoke treatments on fresh seeds and those buried for 1 year (retrieved in spring) and 1.5 years (retrieved the following late autumn) to investigate whether Asterolasia buxifolia, a shrub from fire‐prone south‐eastern Australia with physiologically dormant seeds, exhibited dormancy cycling.
• All seeds had an obligation for winter seasonal temperatures and smoke to promote germination, even after ageing in the soil. A high proportion of germination was recorded from fresh seeds. but germination after the first retrieval was significantly lower, despite high seed viability. After the second retrieval, germination returned to the initial level. This indicates a pattern of annual dormancy cycling; one of the few observations, to our knowledge, for a perennial species. Additionally, A. buxifolia’s winter temperature and smoke requirements did not change over time, highlighting the potential for seeds to remain conditionally dormant (i.e. restricted to a narrow range of germination conditions) for long periods.
• For physiologically dormant species, such as A. buxifolia, we conclude that dormancy cycling is an important driver of successful regeneration, allowing seed bank persistence, sometimes for decades, during fire‐free periods unsuitable for successful recruitment, while ensuring that a large proportion of seeds are available for recruitment when a fire occurs.

     

Estimating population abundance in plant species with dormant life-stages: Fire and the endangered plant Grevillea caleyi R. Br.

Summary Assessment of the conservation significance of a species at a particular site involves estimating the population size. Generally this is based on a single survey. However, where plant species vary greatly in abundance in response to disturbance regimes, there will be uncertainty associated with the use of single estimates of abundance. The interpretation of such estimates is dependent on an understanding of the ecology of the species and the disturbance regimes that impact on it. We examined the usefulness of abundance estimates in the endangered shrub Grevillea caleyi (a fire‐sensitive shrub with a persistent soil seed bank) from south‐eastern Australia, where fire is a major landscape disturbance. Comparisons of estimates of abundance before and after fire showed very large changes in the number of plants of G. caleyi above ground. Changes in abundance of over two orders of magnitude were observed. The longer the site was left unburnt, the greater the magnitude of change in abundance after the next fire. Above‐ground plants may be rare or absent at sites unburnt for over 15–20 years, but were abundant after fire, due to re‐establishment from the soil seed bank. Sites burnt by two fires in quick succession showed declines in population abundance, most likely due to the soil seed bank not being replenished between such short interval fires. Assessments of the conservation significance of remnant sites of G. caleyi and similar species based on a single sample of above‐ground plant abundance at one time are considered inappropriate. The amount of available habitat for G. caleyi, either as area of occupancy or preferably extent of available habitat, was a moderate predictor of the likely magnitude of abundance in the species after fire. However, the usefulness of these measures for species whose biology is comparable to Grevillea caleyi, will be limited due to factors relating to the degree of species‐specific habitat requirements, local site fire history and the impact of any one fire on resultant post‐fire germination levels. Any assessment of conservation significance will require the interpretation of available information in relation to the ecology of a species.     

Are Brazil nut populations threatened by fruit harvest?

Harvest of Brazil nuts from the large, iconic tree Bertholletia excelsa generates substantial income for smallholders, providing a strong incentive to conserve the mature forests where it grows. Although much previous work has focused on the impact of nut harvest on new seedling recruits into B. excelsa populations, the connection between harvest rates and long‐term population stability is still unclear. Moreover, there is additional uncertainty for Brazil nut management in terms of population response to climate change and other anthropogenic influences. We drew on 14 years of research in two sites in Acre, Brazil with different B. excelsa nut harvest intensities (39% and 81%), to produce stochastic and deterministic matrix population models which incorporated parameter uncertainty in vital rates. Adult abundance was projected to remain close to the current observed abundance or higher through the next 50 years. Elasticity analyses revealed that the asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to stasis vital rates in sapling, juvenile, and adult stages. Deterministic transition matrices calculated using diameter growth rates dependent on rainfall yielded average λ values around 1.0 under extreme high, extreme low, and average annual rainfall. While sustained high rates of Brazil nut harvest and climate change could potentially negatively impact B. excelsa populations, changes in human use of the forested landscape are more immediate concern. To reduce the risk of population decline, smallholders and managers of B. excelsa rich forests should focus on conservation of pre‐mature and mature individuals.     

Experimental determination of seed emergence and carry‐over in the soil seed bank of the herbaceous perennial,Trachymene incisa (Apiaceae)

Abstract Many populations of herbaceous perennial plants contain seeds stored in a soil seed bank. The contribution of seeds to population persistence is an important parameter in population models but germination rates of known‐age seeds are difficult to obtain because individual seeds cannot easily be followed. Although Trachymene incisa Rudge plants produce copious seeds that are dispersed into the soil, the existence of a seed bank has not been confirmed. To quantify the potential for a seed bank fresh seeds of T. incisa were sown into experimental seed banks in the eucalypt‐dominated Agnes Banks Woodland in western Sydney, NSW. A recent fire provided the opportunity to compare germination in the burnt and unburnt vegetation. Density of seed sowing and time of maturation/dispersal of seeds were manipulated in 75 seed cages. Emergence of seeds after 5 months was significantly higher for the earliest planting date but after 1 year, germination of seeds planted in the later weeks increased, and the final germination for all weeks was 28%. Density of sowing and the recent fire did not affect emergence. A second experiment planted over a broader time span (9 weeks instead of 3 weeks) confirmed the effect of planting date but also found significant spatial variation on a scale of tens of metres. Laboratory germination rates of over 70% confirmed that the seeds were viable and non‐dormant when sown in the field cages. The carry‐over of non‐germinated seed in the soil seed bank is estimated to be about 70% after 2 years, implying that a cohort of seeds would not be depleted through germination alone for up to 40 years. The potential for a long‐lived seed bank in this species is interesting because the plants are also capable of resprouting from their rootstock after fire, giving them characteristics of both resprouters and seeders.     

Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Location Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods Presence–absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time‐return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R² of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30–40%, respectively. Main conclusions Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition‐free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.     

Cumulative effects of land use,altered fire regime and climate change on persistence of Ceanothus verrucosus,a rare,fire‐dependent plant species

Mediterranean ecosystems are among the highest in species richness and endemism globally and are also among the most sensitive to climate and land‐use change. Fire is an important driver of ecosystem processes in these systems; however, fire regimes have been substantially changed by human activities. Climate change is predicted to further alter fire regimes and species distributions, leading to habitat loss and threatening biodiversity. It is currently unknown what the population‐level effects of these landscape‐level changes will be. We linked a spatially explicit stochastic population model to dynamic bioclimate envelopes to investigate the effects of climate change, habitat loss and fragm entation and altered fire regime on population abundances of a long‐lived obligate seeding shrub, Ceanothus verrucosus, a rare endemic species of southern California. We tested a range of fire return intervals under the present and two future climate scenarios. We also assessed the impact of potential anthropogenic land‐use change by excluding land identified as developable by local governments. We found that the 35–50 year fire return interval resulted in the highest population abundances. Expected minimum population abundance (EMA) declined gradually as fire return interval increased, but declined dramatically for shorter fire intervals. Simulated future development resulted in a 33% decline in EMA, but relatively stable population trajectories over the time frame modeled. Relative changes in EMA for alternative fire intervals were similar for all climate and habitat loss scenarios, except under the more severe climate scenario which resulted in a change in the relative ranking of the fire scenarios. Our results show climate change to be the most serious threat facing obligate seeding shrubs embedded in urban landscapes, resulting in population decline and increased local extirpation, and that likely interactions with other threats increase risks to these species. Taking account of parameter uncertainty did not alter our conclusions.     

Using population viability analysis to predict the effect of fire on the extinction risk of an endangered shrub <Emphasis Type="Italic">Verticordia fimbrilepis</Emphasis> subsp. <Emphasis Type="Italic">fimbrilepis</Emphasis> in a fragmented landscape

The fragmentation of mediterranean climate landscapes where fire is an important landscape process may lead to unsuitable fire regimes for many species, particularly rare species that occur as small isolated populations. We investigate the influence of fire interval on the persistence of population fragments of the endangered shrub Verticordia fimbrilepis Turcz. subsp. fimbrilepis in mediterranean climate south-west of Western Australia. We studied the population biology of the species over 5 years. While the species does recruit sporadically without fire this occurs only in years with above average rainfall, so fire seems to be the main environmental factor producing extensive recruitment. Transition matrix models were constructed to describe the shrub’s population dynamics. As the species is killed by fire and relies on a seed bank stimulated to germinate by smoke, stochastic simulations to compare different fire frequencies on population viability were completed. Extinction risk increased with increasing average fire interval. Initial population size was also important, with the lowest extinction risk in the largest population. For populations in small reserves where fire is generally excluded, inevitable plant senescence will lead to local extirpation unless fires of suitable frequency can be used to stimulate regeneration. While a suitable fire regime reduces extinction risk small populations are still prone to extinction due to stochastic influences, and this will be exacerbated by a projected drying climate increasing rates of adult mortality and also seedling mortality in the post-fire environment.     

Population responses of Ulex shrubs to fire in a lowland heath community

Question: How does the frequency of heathland fire events affect population growth rates of two woody shrub species, Ulex gallii and U. minor? Location: Dry heathland on the south coast of England, UK. Methods: The population dynamics of U. gallii and U. minor were modelled at each phase of the heathland cycle — pioneer, building, mature and degenerate — using periodic matrix products to investigate the response to different fire regimes. Results: Population growth rates of both Ulex species declined under annual burning. Initially, as the time between burns increased, population growth rate increased for both species. Maximum population growth rates for each Ulex species were achieved under a 16‐yr fire return interval. Fire return intervals > 16 yr resulted in declining population growth rates. Conclusions: A species‐specific critical fire frequency can be predicted, the minimum fire return intervals permitting persistence were 4 yr for U. minor and 3 yr for U. gallii. These patterns are similar to those reported for a range of woody plant species within savanna environments.     

Demography of the clonal palm Geonoma brevispatha in a Neotropical swamp forest

Abstract We expected that in clonal plants with the phalanx growth form, prereproductive ramets function as a meristem bank that helps buffer ramet demography against environmental fluctuations. Specifically, we evaluated four expectations for the forest understorey clonal palm Geonoma brevispatha in a swamp forest in south‐eastern Brazil. Our expectations were are follows: (i) the vital rates of prereproductive ramets are more responsive to genet‐related characteristics (genet size, distance and size of the nearest genet neighbour, and reproductive ramet survivorship) than to environmental variables (canopy openness, basal area of small trees, flooding, and distance and size of the nearest large tree neighbour), whose effects are expected to affect ramet dynamics indirectly through physiological integration; (ii) the progress of prereproductive ramets to later stages is dependent on the death of reproductive ramets; (iii) the population dynamics of G. brevispatha is resistant to significant interannual changes in the vital rates of ramets, (i.e. the occurrence of good and bad years); and (iv) there are large negative covariances among demographic transitions within a given year, as well as between years, reflecting the flexibility of G. brevispatha to adjust to environmental variability. Expectations 1, 2 and 4 were confirmed, while expectation 3 was only partially confirmed. Matrix models predicted that the growth rate of the overall ramet population was significantly greater than unity in the first study year, but it was significantly smaller than 1.0 in the second study year. Ramet population growth rates at the level of individual genets were greater than unity in the majority of genets in the first year, but in the second year genets with growth rates smaller than unity prevailed. Ramet population dynamics seems to be resistant to the succession of good and bad years; in effect, the presence of a meristem bank of ramets helps stabilize λ.     

Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi‐event capture–recapture models

Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state – recruitment – leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture–recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi‐event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi‐event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture–recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi‐event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy.     

Invasion speeds for structured populations in fluctuating environments

We live in a time where climate models predict future increases in environmental variability and biological invasions are becoming increasingly frequent. A key to developing effective responses to biological invasions in increasingly variable environments will be estimates of their rates of spatial spread and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Using stochastic, stage-structured, integrodifference equation models, we show analytically that invasion speeds are asymptotically normally distributed with a variance that decreases in time. We apply our methods to a simple juvenile–adult model with stochastic variation in reproduction and an illustrative example with published data for the perennial herb, Calathea ovandensis. These examples buttressed by additional analysis reveal that increased variability in vital rates simultaneously slow down invasions yet generate greater uncertainty about rates of spatial spread. Moreover, while temporal autocorrelations in vital rates inflate variability in invasion speeds, the effect of these autocorrelations on the average invasion speed can be positive or negative depending on life history traits and how well vital rates “remember” the past.