Geographic variations of seasonality and coexistence in communities: The role of diversity and climate

One of the most conspicuous and widely analyzed patterns in ecology is the latitudinal gradient in species richness. Over the 200 years since its recognition, several hypotheses have accumulated in order to account for spatial variations in diversity. Geographic variations in seasonality have been repeatedly proposed as a determinant of community richness. However, the geographic structure of community seasonality has not yet been analyzed. In the present work we evaluated three hypotheses that account for variations in the temporal structuring of communities: first, environmental seasonality determines community seasonality; second, community richness determines its degree of structuring; and third, the presence of an increase in species segregation with latitude, reflected in a pattern of species negative co‐occurrence. The hypotheses were evaluated using path analysis on 29 amphibian communities from South America, connecting latitude, environmental conditions, diversity, seasonality, and coexistence structure – nestedness and negative co‐occurrence – within communities. Latitude positively affects community seasonality through an increase in temperature seasonality, but a weak negative direct effect suggests that other variables not considered in the model – such as the strength of biotic interactions – could also be involved. Both latitude and diversity (directly and indirectly) determine an increase in negative co‐occurrence and nestedness. This suggests that groups of species that are mutually nested in time are internally segregated. Further, the strength of this structure is determined by community diversity and latitude. Temporal structuring of a community is associated with latitude and diversity, pointing to the existence of a systematic change in community organization far beyond, but probably interrelated, with the recognized latitudinal trend in richness. The available information and analysis supported the three hypotheses evaluated.     

Niche versus neutrality in structuring the beta diversity of damselfly assemblages

1. Differences among communities in taxonomic composition – beta diversity – are frequently expected to result from taxon‐specific responses to spatial variation in ecological conditions, through niche partitioning. Such process‐derived patterns are in sharp contrast to arguments from neutral theory, where taxa are ecologically equivalent and beta diversity results primarily from dispersal limitation. 2. Here, we compared beta diversity among assemblages of damselflies (Odonata: Zygoptera), for which previous experiments have shown that niche differences maintain genera within a community, but patterns of relative abundance for species within each genus are shaped primarily by neutral dynamics. 3. Using null‐model and ordination‐based methods, we find that both genera and (in contrast to neutral theory) species assemblage composition vary across the landscape in a deterministic fashion, shaped by environmental and spatial factors. 4. While the observed patterns in species composition conflict with theory, we suggest that this a result of weak ecological filters acting to produce spatial variation in assemblages of ecologically similar species undergoing ecological drift within communities. Such patterns are especially likely in systems of relatively weak dispersers like damselflies.     

Non‐native plants have greater impacts because of differing per‐capita effects and nonlinear abundance–impact curves

Invasive, non‐native species can have tremendous impacts on biotic communities, where they reduce the abundance and diversity of local species. However, it remains unclear whether impacts of non‐native species arise from their high abundance or whether each non‐native individual has a disproportionate impact – that is, a higher per‐capita effect – on co‐occurring species compared to impacts by native species. Using a long‐term study of wetlands, we asked how temporal variation in dominant native and non‐native plants impacted the abundance and richness of other plants in the recipient community. Non‐native plants reached higher abundances than natives and had greater per‐capita effects. The abundance–impact relationship between plant abundance and richness was nonlinear. Compared with increasing native abundance, increasing non‐native abundance was associated with steeper declines in richness because of greater per‐capita effects and nonlinearities in the abundance–impact relationship. Our study supports eco‐evolutionary novelty of non‐natives as a driver of their outsized impacts on communities.     

High temporal variability in the occurrence of consumer–resource interactions in ecological networks

Ecological networks have been used to represent interactions between species as fixed linkages despite that populations naturally oscillate over time and space. As such, the influence of the persistence of linkages between species in communities has been overlooked. Unfortunately, empirical analysis of the temporal variation of trophic networks is constrained by the lack of data with high spatial, temporal and taxonomic resolution. Here, we evaluate the spatiotemporal variability of multiple consumer– resource interactions to quantify the relative dominance of highly persistent versus poorly persistent interactions, the commonness of the interaction persistence patterns, and the effect of biotic and abiotic conditions on these patterns. We took advantage of a dataset from four large marine intertidal rocky‐shore networks monitored seasonally for three years along 1000 km of the coast of northern Chile. Our results showed that the communities were characterized by few persistent interactions and a large number of transient trophic interactions, which was well described by a common exponential decay in the rank‐frequency relationship of consumer–resource interactions despite dissimilarities in environmental conditions among sites. These results were independent of the degree of consumer–resource co‐occurrence. Our results stress the need for more long‐term studies that evaluate the temporal variability of ecological networks.     

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

Community‐level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non‐climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely‐used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially‐explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constrained predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire–vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire–vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process‐based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Net increases in CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI is thus strongly dependent on complex interactions between climate change and fire–vegetation dynamics. The potential impacts on bird communities may be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly incorporate these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast climate change impact in dynamic ecosystems. In fire‐prone systems, wildfire management and land‐use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively.     

The spatial and temporal distributions of arthropods in forest canopies: uniting disparate patterns with hypotheses for specialisation

Arguably the majority of species on Earth utilise tropical rainforest canopies, and much progress has been made in describing arboreal assemblages, especially for arthropods. The most commonly described patterns for tropical rainforest insect communities are host specificity, spatial specialisation (predominantly vertical stratification), and temporal changes in abundance (seasonality and circadian rhythms). Here I review the recurrent results with respect to each of these patterns and discuss the evolutionary selective forces that have generated them in an attempt to unite these patterns in a holistic evolutionary framework. I propose that species can be quantified along a generalist–specialist scale not only with respect to host specificity, but also other spatial and temporal distribution patterns, where specialisation is a function of the extent of activity across space and time for particular species. When all of these distribution patterns are viewed through the paradigm of specialisation, hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the evolution of host specificity can also be applied to explain the generation and maintenance of other spatial and temporal distribution patterns. The main driver for most spatial and temporal distribution patterns is resource availability. Generally, the distribution of insects follows that of the resources they exploit, which are spatially stratified and vary temporally in availability. Physiological adaptations are primarily important for host specificity, where nutritional and chemical variation among host plants in particular, but also certain prey species and fungi, influence host range. Physiological tolerances of abiotic conditions are also important for explaining the spatial and temporal distributions of some insect species, especially in drier forest environments where desiccation is an ever‐present threat. However, it is likely that for most species in moist tropical rainforests, abiotic conditions are valuable indicators of resource availability, rather than physiologically limiting factors. Overall, each distribution pattern is influenced by the same evolutionary forces, but at differing intensities. Consequently, each pattern is linked and not mutually exclusive of the other distribution patterns. Most studies have examined each of these patterns in isolation. Future work should focus on examining the evolutionary drivers of these patterns in concert. Only then can the relative strength of resource availability and distribution, host defensive phenotypes, and biotic and abiotic interactions on insect distribution patterns be determined.     

A temporal dimension to the stress gradient hypothesis for intraspecific interactions

Space and time are the two fundamental drivers of ecological dynamics. Studies exploring the Stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) – which predicts that the patterns of interspecific interactions shift from negative to positive with increasing environmental severity – conceptualize environmental severity predominantly from a spatial perspective. Here, from a temporal perspective and for intraspecific interactions, we asked: do the predictions of the SGH at the intraspecific level apply to seasonal change in environmental severity? We conducted a field experiment, which was complemented by a two‐year field survey of natural populations of the non‐native biennial forb Alliaria petiolata at the Koffler Scientific Reserve, Ontario, Canada. In both experiment and field survey studies we found statistically significant negative density‐dependent survival in the productive summer period and positive density‐dependent survival over the severe winter period. Effects were stronger in the field experiment than in the survey of natural populations. We suggest that the SGH at the intraspecific level may be applicable to seasonal variation in environmental severity, though our ability to detect its effect in natural communities may depend on other factors such as species dominance and environmental heterogeneity.     

Shared environmental responses drive co‐occurrence patterns in river bird communities

Positive or negative patterns of co‐occurrence might imply an influence of biotic interactions on community structure. However, species may co‐occur simply because of shared environmental responses. Here, we apply two complementary modelling methodologies – a probabilistic model of significant pairwise associations and a hierarchical multivariate probit regression model – to 1) attribute co‐occurrence patterns in 100 river bird communities to either shared environmental responses or to other ecological mechanisms such as interaction with heterospecifics, and 2) examine the strength of evidence for four alternative models of community structure. Species co‐occurred more often than would be expected by random community assembly and the species composition of bird communities was highly structured. Co‐occurrence patterns were primarily explained by shared environmental responses; species’ responses to the environmental variables were highly divergent, with both strong positive and negative environmental correlations occurring. We found limited evidence for behaviour‐driven assemblage patterns in bird communities at a large spatial scale, although statistically significant positive associations amongst some species suggested the operation of facilitative mechanisms such as heterospecific attraction. This lends support to an environmental filtering model of community assembly as being the principle mechanism shaping river bird community structure. Consequently, species interactions may be reduced to an ancillary role in some avifaunal communities, meaning if shared environmental responses are not quantified studies of co‐occurrence may overestimate the role of species interactions in shaping community structure.     

Understanding extinction debts: spatio–temporal scales,mechanisms and a roadmap for future research

Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such extinctions and investigating long‐term consequences of perturbations has proven challenging, because perturbations are not isolated and occur across various spatial and temporal scales, from local habitat losses to global warming. Additionally, the relative importance of eco‐evolutionary processes varies across scales, because levels of ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations and (meta)communities, respond hierarchically to perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge of the scales and mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical and methodological studies addressing either the spatio–temporal scales of extinction debts or the eco‐evolutionary mechanisms delaying extinctions. Extinction debts were detected across a range of ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging from 9 to 90% of current species richness. The duration over which debts have been sustained varies from 5 to 570 yr, and projections of the total period required to settle a debt can extend to 1000 yr. Reported causes of delayed extinctions are 1) life‐history traits that prolong individual survival, and 2) population and metapopulation dynamics that maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors that may extend survival time such as microevolutionary dynamics, or delayed extinctions of interaction partners, have rarely been analyzed. Therefore, we propose a roadmap for future research with three key avenues: 1) the microevolutionary dynamics of extinction processes, 2) the disjunctive loss of interacting species and 3) the impact of multiple regimes of perturbation on the payment of debts. For their ability to integrate processes occurring at different levels of ecological organization, we highlight mechanistic simulation models as tools to address these knowledge gaps and to deepen our understanding of extinction dynamics.     

Fish communities diverge in species but converge in traits over three decades of warming

Describing the spatial and temporal dynamics of communities is essential for understanding the impacts of global environmental change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Trait‐based approaches can provide better insight than species‐based (i.e. taxonomic) approaches into community assembly and ecosystem functioning, but comparing species and trait dynamics may reveal important patterns for understanding community responses to environmental change. Here, we used a 33‐year database of fish monitoring to compare the spatio‐temporal dynamics of taxonomic and trait structure in North Sea fish communities. We found that the majority of variation in both taxonomic and trait structure was explained by a pronounced spatial gradient, with distinct communities in the southern and northern North Sea related to depth, sea surface temperature, salinity and bed shear stress. Both taxonomic and trait structure changed significantly over time; however taxonomically, communities in the south and north diverged towards different species, becoming more dissimilar over time, yet they converged towards the same traits regardless of species differences. In particular, communities shifted towards smaller, faster growing species with higher thermal preferences and pelagic water column position. Although taxonomic structure changed over time, its spatial distribution remained relatively stable, whereas in trait structure, the southern zone of the North Sea shifted northward and expanded, leading to homogenization. Our findings suggest that global environmental change, notably climate warming, will lead to convergence towards traits more adapted for novel environments regardless of species composition.     

PaleoView: a tool for generating continuous climate projections spanning the last 21 000 years at regional and global scales

It has been difficult to access projections of global‐scale climate change with high temporal resolution spaning the late Pleistocene and Holocene. This has limited our ability to discern how climate fluctuations have affected species’ range dynamics and extinction processes, turn‐over in ecological communities and changes in genetic diversity. PaleoView is a new freeware tool, which provides a comprehensive but easy‐to‐use way to generate and view paleoclimate data at temporal and spatial resolutions suitable for detecting biotic responses to major climate shifts since the last glacial maximum. Regional to global scale simulations of temperature, precipitation, humidity and mean sea level pressure can be generated from PaleoView as gridded or time series data at time intervals as short as a decade for any period during the last 21 000 yr. They can be viewed using a built‐in geographical user interface or saved as data files. Modelled climate reconstructions are based on daily simulation output from the Community Climate System Model ver. 3 (CCSM3). This global coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–land general circulation model accurately reproduces major climatic features associated with the most recent deglaciation event, and predicts present‐day patterns of climate conditions with verified hindcast skill. By providing a portal for readily accessing climate reconstructions at high temporal resolutions, PaleoView can help to better establish the consequences of past climate fluctuations on macro‐ecological patterns of biological and genetic diversity.     

Plant–mycorrhizal fungus co‐occurrence network lacks substantial structure

The interactions between plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) maintain a crucial link between macroscopic organisms and the soil microbial world. These interactions are of extreme importance for the diversity of plant communities and ecosystem functioning. Despite this importance, only recently has the structure of plant–AMF interaction networks been studied. These recent studies, which used genetic data, suggest that these networks are highly structured, very similar to plant–animal mutualistic networks. However, the assembly process of plant–AMF communities is still largely unknown, and an important feature of plant–AMF interactions has not been incorporated: they occur at an extremely localized scale. Studying plant–AMF networks in a spatial context seems therefore a crucial step. This paper studies a plant–AMF spatial co‐occurrence network using novel methodology based on information theory and a unique set of spatially explicit species‐level data. We apply three null models of which only one accounts for spatial effects. We find that the data show substantial departures from null expectations for the two non‐spatial null models. However, for the null model considering spatial effects, there are few significant co‐occurrences compared with the other two null models. Thus, plant–AMF spatial co‐occurrences seem to be mostly explained by stochasticity, with a small role for other factors related to plant–AMF specialization. Furthermore, we find that the network is not significantly nested or modular. We conclude that this plant–AMF spatial co‐occurrence network lacks substantial structure and, therefore, plants and AMF species do not track each other over space. Thus, random encounters seem more important in the first step of the assembly of plant–AMF communities. Synthesis The symbiotic interaction between plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) is crucial for ecosystem functioning. However, the factors affecting the assembly of plant‐AMF communities are poorly understood. An important factor of the assembly of plant‐AMF communities has been overlooked: plant‐AMF interactions occur at a localized spatial scale. Our study investigated the importance of space in the structure of plant‐AMF communities. We studied a plant‐AMF spatial co‐occurrence network using a unique set of spatially explicit data and applied three null models. We found that plant‐AMF spatial co‐occurrences seem to be mostly explained by stochasticity. In particular, our study shows that this plant‐AMF spatial co‐occurrence network lacks substantial structure and, therefore, plants and AMF species do not track each other over space. Thus, random encounters seem to drive the assembly of plant‐AMF communities.     

Larval dispersal dampens population fluctuation and shapes the interspecific spatial distribution patterns of rocky intertidal gastropods

Many marine benthic invertebrates pass through a planktonic larval stage whereas others spend their entire lifetimes in benthic habitats. Recent studies indicate that non‐planktonic species show relatively greater fine‐scale patchiness than do planktonic species, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. One hypothesis for such a difference is that larval dispersal enhances the connectivity of populations and buffers population fluctuations and reduces local extinction risk, consequently increasing patch occupancy rate and decreasing spatial patchiness. If this mechanism does indeed play a significant role, then the distribution of non‐planktonic species should be more aggregated – both temporally and spatially – than the distribution of species with a planktonic larval stage. To test this prediction, we compared 1) both the spatial and the temporal abundance–occupancy relationships and 2) both the spatial and the temporal mean–variance relationships of population size across species of rocky intertidal gastropods with differing dispersive traits from the Pacific coast of Japan. We found that, compared to planktonic species, non‐planktonic species exhibited 1) a smaller occupancy rate for any given level of mean population size and 2) greater variations in population size, both spatially and temporally. This suggests that the macroecological patterns observed in this study (i.e. the abundance–occupancy relationships and mean–variance relationships of population size across species) were shaped by the effect of larval dispersal dampening population fluctuation, which works over both space and time. While it has been widely assumed that larval dispersal enhances population fluctuations, larval dispersal may in fact enhance the connectively of populations and buffer population fluctuations and reduce local extinction risks.     

Convergence and divergence in a long‐term old‐field succession: the importance of spatial scale and species abundance

Whether plant communities in a given region converge towards a particular stable state during succession has long been debated, but rarely tested at a sufficiently long time scale. By analysing a 50‐year continuous study of post‐agricultural secondary succession in New Jersey, USA, we show that the extent of community convergence varies with the spatial scale and species abundance classes. At the larger field scale, abundance‐based dissimilarities among communities decreased over time, indicating convergence of dominant species, whereas incidence‐based dissimilarities showed little temporal tend, indicating no sign of convergence. In contrast, plots within each field diverged in both species composition and abundance. Abundance‐based successional rates decreased over time, whereas rare species and herbaceous plants showed little change in temporal turnover rates. Initial abandonment conditions only influenced community structure early in succession. Overall, our findings provide strong evidence for scale and abundance dependence of stochastic and deterministic processes over old‐field succession.     

Abundance–occupancy relationships in deep sea wood fall communities

The generally positive relationship between the number of sites a species occupies and its average abundance within those sites provides an important link between population processes occurring at different spatial scales. Although such abundance–occupancy relationships (AORs) have been documented across a very wide range of taxa and in many different environments, little is known of such patterns in Earth's largest ecosystem, the deep sea. Wood falls – derived from natural or anthropogenic inputs of wood into the oceans – constitute an important deep‐sea habitat, habouring their own unique communities ultimately entirely dependent on the wood for chemical energy. In this study we take advantage of the unique features of an experimental wood fall deployment to examine AORs for the first time in deep‐sea invertebrates. The study design combines advantages of both experimental (tractability, control of key environmental parameters) and observational (natural colonisation by taxonomically diverse communities) studies. We show that the interspecific AOR is strongly positive across the 48 species occurring over 32 wood fall communities. The precise form of the AOR is mediated by both species‐level life history (body size) and by the colonisation stage at which communities were harvested, but not by environmental energy (wood fall size). Temporal dynamics within species are also generally consistent with positive intraspecific AORs. This support for positive AORs in the deep sea is an important extension of a macroecological generality into a new environment offering considerable potential for further testing and developing mechanistic macroecological theories.     

Body mass‐related changes in mammal community assembly patterns during the late Quaternary of North America

The late Quaternary of North America was marked by prominent ecological changes, including the end‐Pleistocene megafaunal extinction, the spread of human settlements and the rise of agriculture. Here we examine the mechanistic reasons for temporal changes in mammal species association and body size during this time period. Building upon the co‐occurrence results from Lyons et al. (2016) – wherein each species pair was classified as spatially aggregated, segregated or random – we examined body mass differences (BMD) between each species pair for each association type and time period (Late Pleistocene: 40 000 ¹⁴C–11 700 ¹⁴C ybp, Holocene: 11 700 ¹⁴C–50 ybp and Modern: 50–0 yr). In the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, the BMD of both aggregated and segregated species pairs was significantly smaller than the BMD of random pairs. These results are consistent with environmental filtering and competition as important drivers of community structure in both time periods. Modern assemblages showed a breakdown between BMD and co‐occurrence patterns: the average BMD of aggregated, segregated and random species pairs did not differ from each other. Collectively, these results indicate that the late Quaternary mammalian extinctions not only eliminated many large‐bodied species but were followed by a re‐organization of communities that altered patterns of species coexistence and associated differences in body size.     

Using functional diversity patterns to explore metacommunity dynamics: a framework for understanding local and regional influences on community structure

The metacommunity concept, describing how local and regional scale processes interact to structure communities, has been successfully applied to patterns of taxonomic diversity. Functional diversity has proved useful for understanding local scale processes, but has less often been applied to understanding regional scale processes. Here, we explore functional diversity patterns within a metacommunity context to help elucidate how local and regional scale processes influence community assembly. We detail how each of the four metacommunity perspectives (species sorting, mass effects, patch dynamics, neutral) predict different patterns of functional beta‐ and alpha‐diversity and spatial structure along two key gradients: dispersal limitation and environmental conditions. We then apply this conceptual model to a case study from alpine tundra plant communities. We sampled species composition in 17 ‘sky islands’ of alpine tundra in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA that differed in geographic isolation and area (key factors related to dispersal limitation) and temperature and elevation (key environmental factors). We quantified functional diversity in each site based on specific leaf area, leaf area, stomatal conductance, plant height and chlorophyll content. We found that colder high elevation sites were functionally more similar to each other (decreased functional beta‐diversity) and had lower functional alpha‐diversity. Geographic isolation and area did not influence functional beta‐ or alpha‐diversity. These results suggest a strong role for environmental conditions structuring alpine plant communities, patterns consistent with the species sorting metacommunity perspective. Incorporating functional diversity into metacommunity theory can help elucidate how local and regional factors structure communities and provide a framework for observationally examining the role of metacommunity dynamics in systems where experimental approaches are less tractable.     

Local climate mediates spatial and temporal variation in carabid beetle communities in three forests in Mount Odaesan,Korea

1. Global environmental change can dramatically alter the composition of floral and faunal communities, and elucidating the mechanisms underlying this process is important for predicting its outcomes. Studies on global climate change have mostly focused on statistical summaries within wide spatial and temporal scales; less attention has been paid to variability in microclimates at narrower spatial and temporal scales. 2. The microclimate is the suite of climatic conditions measured in a local area. Environmental variables at the microclimatic scale can be critical for the ecology of organisms inhabiting each area. The effect of spatial and temporal changes in the microclimate on the ecology of carabid beetle communities in three sites on Mount Odaesan, Korea was examined. 3. Carabid beetle communities and quantified site‐specific environmental factors from measurements of air temperature, air humidity, light intensity and soil temperature over 5 years (2010–2015) were surveyed. 4. It was found that microclimatic variables and the patterns of temporal changes in carabid beetle communities differed between the three sites within the single mountain system. Microclimatic variables influencing temporal changes in beetle communities also differed between the sites. Therefore, it is suggested that variation in local microclimates affects spatial and temporal variation in carabid beetle communities at a local scale. 5. The present results demonstrate the importance of regular surveys of communities at local scales. Such surveys are expected to reveal an additional fraction of variation in communities and underlying processes that have been overlooked in studies of global community patterns and change.     

The Temporal Scaling of Bacterioplankton Composition: High Turnover and Predictability during Shrimp Cultivation

The spatial distribution of microbial communities has recently been reliably documented in the form of a distance–similarity decay relationship. In contrast, temporal scaling, the pattern defined by the microbial similarity–time relationships (STRs), has received far less attention. As a result, it is unclear whether the spatial and temporal variations of microbial communities share a similar power law. In this study, we applied the 454 pyrosequencing technique to investigate temporal scaling in patterns of bacterioplankton community dynamics during the process of shrimp culture. Our results showed that the similarities decreased significantly (P?=?0.002) with time during the period over which the bacterioplankton community was monitored, with a scaling exponent of w?=?0.400. However, the diversities did not change dramatically. The community dynamics followed a gradual process of succession relative to the parent communities, with greater similarities between samples from consecutive sampling points. In particular, the variations of the bacterial communities from different ponds shared similar successional trajectories, suggesting that bacterial temporal dynamics are predictable to a certain extent. Changes in bacterial community structure were significantly correlated with the combination of Chl a, TN, PO₄ ^3-, and the C/N ratio. In this study, we identified predictable patterns in the temporal dynamics of bacterioplankton community structure, demonstrating that the STR of the bacterial community mirrors the spatial distance–similarity decay model.