Rapid climate‐driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds

Millions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and projected them to 2070 and to the mid‐Holocene climatic optimum, the world's last major warming event ~6000 years ago. We show that climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift, contract and decline over the next 70 years, with 66–83% of species losing the majority of currently suitable area. This exceeds, in rate and magnitude, the impact of the mid‐Holocene climatic optimum. Suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline acutely in the most species rich region, Beringia (western Alaska and eastern Russia), and become concentrated in the Eurasian and Canadian Arctic islands. These predicted spatial shifts of breeding grounds could affect the species composition of the world's major flyways. Encouragingly, protected area coverage of current and future climatically suitable breeding conditions generally meets target levels; however, there is a lack of protected areas within the Canadian Arctic where resource exploitation is a growing threat. Given that already there are rapid declines of many populations of Arctic migratory birds, our results emphasize the urgency of mitigating climate change and protecting Arctic biodiversity.     

Effect of climate,topography and habitat on species-richness of breeding birds in Poland

We developed predictive maps of farmland and forest species richness which are based on the “focal species concept” and remote sensing data. We explored environmental preferences of 17 farmland and 33 forest species in Poland, using data from the Pan-European Monitoring Scheme. The largest number of farmland species was noted in the central and eastern parts, while the opposite trend was observed in the case of forest species, where the preferred areas were in the north and south-east. The most important environmental component affecting the bird faunas of farmland and forest was a gradient from arable fields to forest. This relationship is unimodal, which means that on a meso-geographical scale the highest species richness occurred in heterogeneous landscapes where fields are interspersed with forest. Our results also indicate that the geographical gradient in Poland's bird fauna can simply be attributed to the habitat-based distinction: western and central parts are dominated by large agricultural habitats and coniferous forest, while in other areas predominate mixed forests and extensively used farmland. Among the climatic factors, only rainfall influenced the farmland bird species. Its effect is non-linear, but positive, which means that in areas with higher rainfall more species are recorded.Our predictive maps are complementary to research on population trends, and can be an essential tool for effective management and conservation of species populations on a trans-national scale.     

Habitat use,abundance, and persistence of Neotropical migrant birds in a habitat matrix in northeast Belize

ABSTRACT To ensure adequate protection of nonbreeding habitats used by Neotropical migratory landbirds, we must first address questions about habitat use and quality. On the Yucatan peninsula, migrants use many habitats, several of which remain unstudied, and methodological differences preclude interhabitat comparisons based on studies to date. We used distance sampling along line transects in six habitats in northeast Belize to examine use of previously unstudied habitats (e.g., salt marsh) by Neotropical migrants and to permit comparison across habitats. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted (for detectability) density estimates for individual migrant species and for all species combined to generate hypotheses about habitat quality based on the assumption that density and quality are positively correlated. Adjusted density estimates for all migrants were highest in black mangrove habitat (1799 ± 110 ind/km²), intermediate in three forest types and milpa (range 598–802 ind/km²), and lowest in salt marsh (207 ± 32.3 ind/km²). By combining density estimates with habitat availability in our study region, we estimated that evergreen forest and black mangrove supported 70% and 9% of the region's migrant population, respectively. At the species level, five of the 10 most common species had habitat preferences (>50% detections in one habitat). Given the diversity of habitat preferences among species and apparent seasonal movements, our results indicate that Neotropical migrants in northeast Belize are dependent on a matrix of interconnected habitats.     

Assessing habitat loss and fragmentation and their effects on population viability of forest specialist birds: Linking biogeographical and population approaches

Aim

Biogeographic approaches usually have been developed apart from population ecology, resulting in predictive models without key parameters needed to account for reproductive and behavioural limitations on dispersal. Our aim was to incorporate fully spatially explicit population traits into a classic species distribution model (SDM) using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), aiming at conservation purposes.

Location

Southern South America.

Methods

Our analysis incorporates the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on population viability and therefore provides insights into how much spatially explicit population traits can improve the SDM prediction of habitable habitat. We utilized a well‐studied focal endemic bird of South American temperate rainforests (Scelorchilus rubecula). First, at a large scale, we assessed the historical extent habitat based on climate envelopes in an SDM. Second, we used a land cover change analysis at a regional scale to account for recent habitat loss and fragmentation. Third, we used empirically derived criteria to predict population responses to fragmented forest landscapes to identify actual losses of habitat and population. Then we selected three sites of high conservation value in southern Chile and applied our population model. Finally, we discuss the degree to which spatially explicit population traits can improve the SDM output without intervening in the modelling process itself.

Results

We found a historical habitat loss of 39.12% and an additional forest cover loss of 3.03% during 2000–2014; the latter occurred with a high degree of fragmentation, reducing the overall estimation of (1) carrying capacity by ?82.4%, ?33.1% and ?45.1% and (2) estimated number of pairs on viable populations by ?84.1%, ?33.0% and ?54.6% on the three selected sites.

Main conclusion

We conclude that our approach sharpened the SDM prediction on environmental suitability by 54.4%, adjusting the habitable area by adding population parameters through GIS, and allowing to incorporate other phenomena as fragmentation and habitat loss.

     

Independent effects of habitat loss,habitat fragmentation and structural connectivity on forest‐dependent birds

Aim Habitat loss and fragmentation are amongst the greatest threats to biodiversity world‐wide. However, there is still little evidence on the relative influence of these two distinct processes on biodiversity, and no study, to date, has investigated the independent contribution of structural connectivity in addition to habitat loss and fragmentation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the independent effects of habitat loss (the decrease in total amount of habitat), habitat fragmentation per se (habitat subdivision) and structural connectivity (in the form of hedgerow networks) on the distribution of seven resident forest‐dependent birds in central Italy. Location Central Italy. Methods We strategically selected 30 landscapes (each of 16 km² in size) with decreasing total amount of forest cover and with contrasting configuration of patches and contrasting lengths of hedgerow networks. Presence/absence of birds in each landscape unit was studied through point counts. Results The amount of forest cover in the landscape had the strongest relative influence on birds’ occupancy, whilst habitat subdivision played a negligible role. Structural connectivity and the geographic position of the landscape unit played a relatively important role for four species. Main conclusions Our study shows the importance of disentangling the contribution of different landscape properties in determining distribution patterns. Our results are consistent with the fact that halting habitat loss and carrying out habitat restoration should be conservation priorities, since habitat loss is the main factor affecting the distribution of the target species; implementation of structural connectivity through hedgerows, instead, should be evaluated with caution since its contribution is secondary to the predominant role of habitat loss.     

Integrated population monitoring of breeding birds in Britain and Ireland

Effective wildlife monitoring schemes identify changes in population variables that require conservation action. This must be based on an understanding of normal patterns of population variability. Monitoring schemes ideally provide data on the stages of the life cycle at which changes are taking place and indications of the probable causes of change.
The Integrated Population Monitoring Programme of the British Trust for Ornithology aims to fulfil these requirements for British birds. It encompasses existing BTO projects that measure population size, productivity and survival rates, principally the Common Birds Census, Waterways Bird Survey, Nest Record Scheme, Constant Effort (mist-netting) Sites Scheme and the Ringing Scheme. Integrated analyses of long-term BTO data are being used to study the population dynamics of individual species. Relationships established through such analyses will be used to construct models that will predict population performance, and against which observed performance can be compared.
A simple application of Integrated Population Monitoring is presented using data for the Song Thrush ( Turdus philomelos ), a species which has been declining throughout most of Britain since the mid 1970s. No reduction in reproductive performance was detected and the decline appears to have been brought about through reduced survival rates. Factors responsible for much of this decline were identified from a multiple regression model involving winter weather conditions.     

Connectivity, habitat heterogeneity, and population persistence in Ranunculus nodiflorus, an endangered species in France

Here, we explore the role of habitat spatial structure in the maintenance of metapopulations of Ranunculus nodiflorus. This rare species grows in puddles that can be connected occasionally by flooded corridors. We monitored five locations in the Fontainebleau forest, France, since 2002 and recorded the presence of corridors among puddles and evaluated their impact on puddle demography and plant fitness. We showed that connections increased population size, by increasing both the number of puddles occupied by the species and the density of individuals within puddles, but seemed to have no direct influence on plant fitness. We found no evidence of a large persistent soil seed bank. Natural corridors are likely to decrease the extinction probability of the populations, most probably by allowing recolonization of empty puddles after extinctions. Therefore, the preservation of corridors appears crucial for the conservation of R. nodiflorus in its natural habitat.     

Reversing habitat loss: deciduous habitat fragmentation matters to birds in a larch plantation matrix

Whereas matrix management has recently been suggested as a useful tool in biodiversity conservation, patterns and processes within matrices remain unknown. We examined the effects of the loss and fragmentation (configuration) of original deciduous habitats on birds in larch plantation matrix in the winter and during the breeding season in a montane region in Nagano Prefecture, central Japan. Birds were counted using a plot-count method from 32 (winter) and 46 (breeding) matrix (plantation) sites with a range of surrounding habitat loss and fragmentation at a 1600-m scale. Birds were assigned to species groups based on ecological traits, and three groups for which larch plantation would function as low-quality matrix were analyzed. Bird occurrences were explained primarily by habitat structure. Although the effects of landscape structure were less than those of habitat structure, three of five groups across the two seasons experienced significant landscape effects. All effects were of habitat fragmentation (scatteredness of deciduous habitats), i.e. two groups (flycatchers in the breeding season and tree nesters in both seasons) frequently occurred in matrix surrounded by highly scattered deciduous habitats. However, most of these effects were confounded by local habitat structure. That is, the variation in bird occurrences explained purely by fragmentation variables was <6%. Nonetheless, because these effects were marginally significant at p<0.10, there was some support for fragmentation effects after covariation with habitat structure was considered. Based on these results and associated theoretical studies, we hypothesized that habitat fragmentation leads to loss of individuals and is more important than habitat loss in landscapes with a structurally similar matrix. We also hypothesized that matrix within landscapes with highly scattered habitats should be managed with high priority.     

Explaining individual variation in patterns of mass loss in breeding birds

Background  

Studies of birds have a disproportionate representation in the literature on life-history evolution, because of the (apparent) ease with which the costs and benefits can be quantified and manipulated. During reproduction, birds frequently show a highly conserved pattern of mass change and changes in mass loss during breeding have been widely considered to be a valid short-term measure of the costs of reproduction. Experimental manipulations of the breeding attempts of birds usually argue that the presence of a response shows that a cost of reproduction exists, but there is little consensus as to how the size of these costs can be measured.     

Spatial pattern of habitat quality modulates population persistence in fragmented landscapes

Habitat quality is one of the important factors determining population dynamics and persistence, yet few studies have examined the effects of spatial heterogeneity in within-patch habitat quality. In this paper, we use a spatially explicit agent-based model to investigate how habitat fragmentation and spatial pattern of within-patch habitat quality affect population dynamics and long-term persistence. We simulate three levels of habitat fragmentation (ranges from continuous to highly fragmented) and three types of spatial patterns in habitat quality within patches (i.e., negatively autocorrelated, randomly distributed, and positively autocorrelated). Hypothetical species differ in their niche specialization. The results demonstrate explicitly that the spatial pattern of within-patch habitat quality plays an important role in modulating the effects of habitat fragmentation on populations. Populations become less variable in size, and experience lower probability of extinction in landscapes with positively autocorrelated within-patch habitat quality. Specifically, specialized species are more vulnerable to habitat fragmentation, but this vulnerability is greatly mitigated by positively autocorrelated habitat quality within patches, in other words, exhibiting higher resistance to habitat fragmentation. The findings of this study suggest that managing habitat quality in existing habitat remnants is important to preserve species in habitats undergoing fragmentation, particularly for those with specialized habitat requirements.     

Critical thresholds associated with habitat loss: a review of the concepts, evidence, and applications

A major conservation concern is whether population size and other ecological variables change linearly with habitat loss, or whether they suddenly decline more rapidly below a “critical threshold” level of habitat. The most commonly discussed explanation for critical threshold responses to habitat loss focus on habitat configuration. As habitat loss progresses, the remaining habitat is increasingly fragmented or the fragments are increasingly isolated, which may compound the effects of habitat loss. In this review we also explore other possible explanations for apparently nonlinear relationships between habitat loss and ecological responses, including Allee effects and time lags, and point out that some ecological variables will inherently respond nonlinearly to habitat loss even in the absence of compounding factors. In the literature, both linear and nonlinear ecological responses to habitat loss are evident among simulation and empirical studies, although the presence and value of critical thresholds is influenced by characteristics of the species (e.g. dispersal, reproduction, area/edge sensitivity) and landscape (e.g. fragmentation, matrix quality, rate of change). With enough empirical support, such trends could be useful for making important predictions about species' responses to habitat loss, to guide future research on the underlying causes of critical thresholds, and to make better informed management decisions. Some have seen critical thresholds as a means of identifying conservation targets for habitat retention. We argue that in many cases this may be misguided, and that the meaning (and utility) of a critical threshold must be interpreted carefully and in relation to the response variable and management goal. Despite recent interest in critical threshold responses to habitat loss, most studies have not used any formal statistical methods to identify their presence or value. Methods that have been used include model comparisons using Akaike information criterion (AIC) or t‐tests, and significance testing for changes in slope or for polynomial effects. The judicious use of statistics to help determine the shape of ecological relationships would permit greater objectivity and more comparability among studies.     

Shifts in breeding habitat selection behaviour in response to population density

We tested whether mountain pine beetles Dendroctonus ponderosae, an insect herbivore that exhibits outbreak population dynamics, modifies its habitat selection behaviour in response to density‐dependent environmental shifts. Using an individual‐based habitat selection model, we formulated predictions of how beetle population density will influence breeding habitat selectivity. Our model predicted that beetles should be more selective at intermediate densities than at low or high densities. The mechanisms influencing optimal selectivity differed between low and high density populations. In low density populations, breeding site availability was the primary factor affecting selectivity, whereas intraspecific competition and the reliability of habitat quality cues were important in high density populations. We tested our model predictions in natural populations that encompassed a range of beetle population densities. Our empirical findings supported the two key predictions from our model. First, habitat quality was more variable in high density populations. Second, individuals in high density populations were less selective compared to beetles from intermediate density populations. Our results demonstrate that beetles alter their habitat selection behaviour in response to density‐dependent shifts. We propose that the behavioural changes we identified may influence the rate at which beetle populations transition between density states.     

Predation risk and habitat selection in the persistence of a remnant caribou population

Summary A small caribou herd of 24–77 animals resided on Pic Island (1138 ha) in Lake Superior from 1976 to 1984. Most of the caribou populations on the adjacent mainland had gone extinct earlier in this century. We tested three hypotheses for the persistence of this remanant population: (1) there was more forage available on the island than the mainland, (2) the animals on the island were isolated from white-tailed deer and did not develop the meningeal worm infection, and (3) there was less predation by wolves on the island. Forage was more abundant on the mainland than on Pic Island. The eggs of meningeal worms were not found in the feces of deer on the mainland or Pic island. Wolves seldom visited the island and when they did there was escape habitat available for the caribou. We concluded that the herd persisted because of this reduced predation risk and that the animals were prepared to select a reduced variety and phytomass of forage to remain for long periods in the relatively safe island habitat. When the animals did visit the mainland to feed they sclected forbs that provided a large bite size. On the island food supplies were too meager to select plants that gave a large bite size and the caribou spent long intervals feeding. Caribou by using habitats with a large phytomass and selecting for large bite size should minimize their time feeding which would allow them more time to watch for predators.     

Predicting landscape-genetic consequences of habitat loss, fragmentation and mobility for multiple species of woodland birds

Inference concerning the impact of habitat fragmentation on dispersal and gene flow is a key theme in landscape genetics. Recently, the ability of established approaches to identify reliably the differential effects of landscape structure (e.g. land-cover composition, remnant vegetation configuration and extent) on the mobility of organisms has been questioned. More explicit methods of predicting and testing for such effects must move beyond post hoc explanations for single landscapes and species. Here, we document a process for making a priori predictions, using existing spatial and ecological data and expert opinion, of the effects of landscape structure on genetic structure of multiple species across replicated landscape blocks. We compare the results of two common methods for estimating the influence of landscape structure on effective distance: least-cost path analysis and isolation-by-resistance. We present a series of alternative models of genetic connectivity in the study area, represented by different landscape resistance surfaces for calculating effective distance, and identify appropriate null models. The process is applied to ten species of sympatric woodland-dependant birds. For each species, we rank a priori the expectation of fit of genetic response to the models according to the expected response of birds to loss of structural connectivity and landscape-scale tree-cover. These rankings (our hypotheses) are presented for testing with empirical genetic data in a subsequent contribution. We propose that this replicated landscape, multi-species approach offers a robust method for identifying the likely effects of landscape fragmentation on dispersal.     

Extrapair paternity, migration, and breeding synchrony in birds

To understand interspecific patterns in the strength of sexualselection, variation in the costs and benefits of exercisingmate choice needs to be evaluated. One manifestation of sexualselection in birds is the occurrence of greatly variable levelsof extrapair paternity (EPP). A proposed general explanationfor this variation is that the benefits to females in seekingextrapair copulations vary in a predictable manner accordingto the degree of breeding synchrony because females are betterable to assess potential extrapair partners when males are simultaneouslyin breeding condition. This hypothesis predicts a latitudinaltrend in EPP because birds tend to breed more synchronouslyaway from the equator. Expanding on previous geographicallyand taxonomically restricted tropical/temperate comparisons,we used phylogenetically independent standardized linear contraststo show that this positive relationship persists when all birdspecies for which EPP estimates currently exist are considered.However, if a third factor covaries with latitude in the sameway as breeding synchrony and EPP, this relationship need notbe causal. Migration could also account for latitudinal variationin the benefits to females of pursuing EPP, if migration isassociated with (1) hasty or (2) inaccurate mate choice, (3)facilitated assessment of male quality through the condition-dependenceof arrival time, or (4) increased genetic variance in male quality.We show that migration distance is positively related to theproportion of EPP and that migration can statistically explainthe latitudinal trend in EPP, even when confounding factorsare simultaneously controlled. Hence, alternative explanationsfor latitudinal variation in EPP may be feasible, and carefulintraspecific tests are needed to assess their relative importanceand their implications for geographical variation in life-historyevolution.     

Colonial breeding and speciation in birds

Summary It was recently suggested that bird species which breed colonially might be under stronger sexual selection, have faster rates of evolution and might therefore speciate more rapidly than bird species which do not. If true, then colonial taxa should contain more species than non-colonial taxa, other things being equal. When similarity through common descent is accounted for, there is little evidence for an association between the number of species in a clade and whether it is colonial or not.     

Relating habitat and climatic niches in birds

Predicting species' responses to the combined effects of habitat and climate changes has become a major challenge in ecology and conservation biology. However, the effects of climatic and habitat gradients on species distributions have generally been considered separately. Here, we explore the relationships between the habitat and thermal dimensions of the ecological niche in European common birds. Using data from the French Breeding Bird Survey, a large-scale bird monitoring program, we correlated the habitat and thermal positions and breadths of 74 bird species, controlling for life history traits and phylogeny. We found that cold climate species tend to have niche positions in closed habitats, as expected by the conjunction of the biogeographic history of birds' habitats, and their current continent-scale gradients. We also report a positive correlation between thermal and habitat niche breadths, a pattern consistent with macroecological predictions concerning the processes shaping species' distributions. Our results suggest that the relationships between the climatic and habitat components of the niche have to be taken into account to understand and predict changes in species' distributions.