Tritrophic interaction of parasitoid Lysiphlebus testaceipes (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae), greenbug, Schizaphis graminum (Homoptera: Aphididae), and greenbug-resistant sorghum hybrids

Interactions of the parasitoid Lysiphlebus testaceipes (Cresson) and the greenbug, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), on greenbug-resistant 'Cargill 607E' (antibiosis), 'Cargill 797' (primarily tolerance), and -susceptible 'Golden Harvest 510B' sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench, were tested using three levels of biotype I greenbug infestation. The parasitoid infestation rate was 0.5 female and 1.0 male L. testaceipes per plant. For all three greenbug infestation levels, the parasitoid brought the greenbug under control (i.e., prevented the greenbugs from killing the plants) on both resistant hybrids, but it did not prevent heavy leaf damage at the higher greenbug infestation rates. At the low greenbug infestation rate (50 greenbugs per resistant plant when parasitoids were introduced), greenbugs damaged 5 and 18% of the total leaf area on 'Cargill 797' and 'Cargill 607E', respectively, before greenbugs were eliminated. Leaf damage was higher for the intermediate infestation study (120 greenbugs per plant), 21% and 30% leaf area were damaged on the resistant sorghum hybrids 'Cargill 797' and 'Cargill 607E', respectively. At the high greenbug infestation rate (300 greenbugs per plant), heavy damage occurred: 61% on 'Cargill 607E' and 75% on 'Cargill 797'. The parasitoids did not control greenbugs on the susceptible sorghum hybrid 'Golden Harvest 510B'. L. testaceipes provided comparable control on both greenbug-resistant hybrids. This study supports previous studies indicating that L. testaceipes is effective in controlling greenbugs on sorghum with antibiosis resistance to greenbugs. Furthermore, new information is provided indicating that L. testaceipes is also effective in controlling greenbugs on a greenbug-tolerant hybrid.     

Phenotypic mechanisms of host resistance against greenbug (Homoptera: Aphididae) revealed by near isogenic lines of wheat

Interactions between biotype E greenbug, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), and wheat, Triticum aestivum L., were investigated using resistant and susceptible near isogenic lines of the greenbug resistance gene Gb3. In an antixenosis test, the greenbugs preferred susceptible plants to resistant ones when free choice of hosts was allowed. Aphid feeding resulted in quick and severe damage to susceptible plants, which seemed to follow a general pattern spatially and was affected by the position where the greenbugs were initially placed. Symptom of damage in resistant plants resembled senescence. Within-plant distribution of aphids after infestation was clearly different between the two genotypes. Significantly more greenbugs fed on the first (oldest) leaf than on the stem in resistant plants, but this preference was reversed in the susceptible one. After reaching its peak, aphid population on the susceptible plants dropped quickly. All susceptible plants were dead in 10-14 d after infestation due to greenbug feeding. Aphid population dynamics on resistant plants exhibited a multipeak curve. After the first peak, the greenbug population declined slowly. More than 70% of resistant plants were killed 47 d after infestation. Performance of both biotype E and I greenbugs on several Gb3-related wheat germplasm lines were also examined. It seems that the preference-on-stem that was characteristic of biotype E greenbugs on the susceptible plants was aphid biotype- and host genotype-dependent. Results from this study suggested that antixenosis, antibiosis, and tolerance in the resistant plants of wheat might all contribute to resistance against greenbug feeding.     

Development and validation of a binomial sequential sampling plan for the greenbug (Homoptera: Aphididae) infesting winter wheat in the southern plains

From 1997 to 1999, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), intensity (number per tiller) was estimated on 115 occasions from hard red winter wheat fields located throughout the major wheat growing regions of Oklahoma. A total of 32 and 83 fields was sampled during the fall and spring, respectively. The parameters of linear regressions relating the mean number of greenbugs per tiller (m) and the proportion of infested tillers (PT) differed significantly between fall and spring infestations. The PT-m linear model provided a good fit for data on S. graminum for fall and spring infestations at tally thresholds of 0, 1, 2, and 3. A tally threshold (T) represents the number of greenbugs present on a tiller before the tiller is classified as infested by >T greenbugs. A regression model with a tally threshold of 2 was the most precise for classifying S. graminum populations during fall growth of winter wheat because it explained a greater amount of the variation in the PT-m relationship (97%) than models with other tally thresholds. A separate spring model with a tally threshold of 1 was the most precise for classifying S. graminum populations during spring growth of winter wheat. Sequential sampling stop lines based on sequential probability ratio tests were calculated for economic thresholds of 3 or 6 greenbugs per tiller for fall infestations and 6 or 9 greenbugs per tiller for spring infestations. With the newly developed parameters, the average sample number required to classify greenbug populations near economic thresholds (as above or below the economic threshold) varied from 69 to 207. We expect that the sampling plans for greenbugs in winter wheat developed during this study will be efficient and useful tools for consultants and producers in the southern plains.     

Spatial and temporal distribution of induced resistance to greenbug (Homoptera: Aphididae) herbivory in preconditioned resistant and susceptible near isogenic plants of wheat

Interactions between biotype E greenbugs, Schizaphis graminum (Rodani), and two near isogenic lines of the greenbug resistance gene Gb3 of wheat, Triticum aestivum L., were examined for 62 d after infestation. By comparing aphid performance and host responses on control and greenbug-preconditioned plants, we demonstrated that systemic resistance to greenbug herbivory was inducible in the resistant genotype with varying intensities and effectiveness in different parts of the plants. Preconditioning of susceptible plants resulted in modification of within-plant aphid distribution and reduction of cumulative greenbug densities, but it showed no effect on reducing greenbug feeding damage to host plant. Preconditioning of resistant plants altered greenbug population dynamics by reducing the size and buffering the fluctuation of the aphid population. Preconditioning in the first (oldest) leaf of the resistant plant had no phenotypically detectable effect in the stem and induced susceptibility locally in the first leaf within the first 2 d after infestation. The preconditioning-induced resistance reduced greenbug density, delayed aphid density peaks and extended the life of younger leaves in resistant plants. Expression of induced resistance was spatially and temporally dynamic within the plant, which occurred more rapidly, was longer in duration, and stronger in intensity in younger leaves. Host resistance gene-mediated induced resistance was effective in lowering greenbug performance and reducing damage from greenbug herbivory in host plants. Results from this study supported the optimal defense theory regarding within-plant defense allocation.     

Molecular mapping of sorghum genes expressing tolerance to damage by greenbug (Homoptera: Aphididae)

Genetic linkage maps are fundamental for the localization of genes conferring tolerance to greenbug, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), feeding damage in sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench. Thirteen linkage groups (LGs) containing 60 simple sequence repeat (SSR) loci were mapped by using a set of sorghum recombinant inbred lines (RILs) obtained from the cross '96-4121' (greenbug-tolerant parent) x Redlan (greenbug-susceptible parent). The LG spanned a distance of 603.5 cM, with the number of loci per LG varying from 2 to 14. Seventeen additional SSR loci were unlinked at a log of odds value of 3.0. Based on chlorophyll loss occurring after greenbug feeding, visual damage ratings, and soil plant analysis development (SPAD), chlorophyll-loss indices were recorded for each RIL and for the parents used in the cross. Composite-interval mapping identified three quantitative trait loci (QTLs) associated with biotype I and five QTLs associated with biotype K. The amount of phenotypic variation explained by these QTLs ranged from 9 to 19.6%. The identification of QTLs that influence greenbug tolerance will not only facilitate the use of marker-assisted selection in sorghum breeding programs but also will provide a solid foundation for detailed characterization of individual loci implicated in greenbug tolerance in sorghum.     

Categories of resistance to greenbug (Homoptera: Aphididae) biotype I in Aegilops tauschii germplasm

Categories of resistance to greenbug, Schizaphisgraminum (Rondani), biotype I, were determined in goatgrass, Aegilops tauschii (Coss.) Schmal., accession 1675 (resistant donor parent), 'Wichita' wheat, Triticum aestivum L., (susceptible parent), and an Ae. tauschii-derived resistant line, '97-85-3'. Antibiosis was assessed using the intrinsic rate of increase (rm) of greenbugs confined to each of the three genotypes. Neither parent nor the resistant progeny expressed antibiosis. Mean rm values for greenbug I on Wichita (0.0956), and Ae. tauschii (0.10543) were not significantly different. Mean rm values for Wichita and 97-85-3 were also not significantly different. Antixenosis was determined by allowing aphids a choice to feed on plants of each of the three genotypes. Ae. tauschii 1675 exhibited antixenosis, but this resistance was not inherited and expressed in '97-85-3'. In experiments comparing Wichita and Ae. tauschii 1675, greenbug I population distributions were not significantly different on Wichita at 24 h, but were shifted toward Wichita at 48 h. In the second antixenosis experiment, there were no significant differences in greenbug I population distributions on 97-85-3 or Wichita at 24 or 48 h. When all three lines were compared, there were no significant differences in greenbug biotype I populations at 24 or 48 h after infestation. Comparisons of proportional dry plant weight loss (DWT) and SPAD meter readings were used to determine tolerance to greenbug I feeding. Ae. tauschii 1675 and 97-85-3 were highly tolerant compared with Wichita. Infested and uninfested Ae. tauschii 1675 DWT was nonsignificant, and infested Wichita plants weighed significantly less than uninfested plants. When Wichita and 97-85-3 were contrasted, DWT of infested and uninfested Wichita plants were significantly different, but those of 97-85-3 were not. Mean percent leaf chlorophyll losses for the three genotypes, as measured by the SPAD chlorophyll meter, were as follows: Wichita = 65%; Ae. tauschii 1675 = 25%; and 97-85-3 = 39%. Percent leaf chlorophyll losses caused by greenbug feeding was significantly different in comparisons between Wichita and Ae. tauschii 1675, and comparisons between Wichita and 97-85-3, although feeding damage was not significantly different in comparisons between Ae. tauschii 1675 and 97-85-3. These data provided further evidence of the expression of tolerance to greenbug feeding in Ae. tauschii 1675 and 97-85-3.     

Physiological modification of the host feeding site by cereal aphids (Homoptera: Aphididae)

Indole-3-acetic acid-l-14C and 14C-sucrose labels were used to study the effects of greenbugs, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), and Russian wheat aphids, Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), on phloem function of wheat (Triticum aesticum L.). Greenbug feeding significantly reduced translocation from the immediate feeding site; however, phloem integrity was not impeded. In contrast, Russian wheat aphids had little effect on vein loading or phloem translocation at the feeding site. Similar results were obtained when resistant and susceptible wheats were infested with three different greenbug biotypes. Greenbugs fed artificial diets containing 14C-sucrose injected salivary material that was translocated to both root and shoot systems. The accumulation of salivary constituents in the roots of wheat seedlings fed upon by greenbugs may account for the significant reductions in root biomass that have previously been reported.     

Yield response and categories of resistance to Russian wheat aphid in four Dn4 hard red winter wheat cultivars

A field experiment was conducted to determine whether resistance to Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), conferred by the Dn4 gene is affected by genetic background. This was done by comparing the yield responses to Russian wheat aphid-resistant wheat containing Dn4, derived through the backcross method, to those of the corresponding recurrent parents. Infested resistant cultivars had fewer Russian wheat aphids per tiller than infested susceptible cultivars at the Lamar and Fort Collins, CO sites but not at the Akron, CO site. At the Lamar site, resistant cultivars yielded more than the susceptible cultivars. 'Prairie Red' and 'Yumar' were more resistant than 'Prowers', especially at the higher infestation level. Resistance in these cultivars was categorized in a laboratory experiment to confirm this differential expression of resistance. Resistance in Prairie Red, 'Halt', 'Prowers 99', and Yumar was categorized at three plant growth stages. Antibiosis was expressed as reductions in maximum number of nymphs produced per 24 h and intrinsic rate of increase. The maximum number of nymphs produced per 24 h was reduced in Halt and 'Lamar'. Averaged over cultivars, the intrinsic rate of increase was less at jointing than at the seedling or tillering growth stages. Tolerance was expressed in the resistant cultivars as reduced chlorosis and leaf rolling. Growth reductions in infested Prowers 99 plants was less than the other cultivars. This study confirms that some cultivars containing Dn4 may express antibiosis and tolerance, whereas others may not show the same categories. Thus, expression is affected by genetic background.     

Characteristics of the population build-up of the Russian wheat aphid Diuraphis noxia and the effect on wheat yield in the eastern Orange Free State

Diuraphis noxia infestations were monitored in early winter and winter wheat during 1983–1985. The aphid population increase was logarithmic in all three years and on both cultivars 100 % infestation levels were recorded. The period of exponential increase in both percentage infestation and in the number of D. noxia per stem took place when the plants had reached the stem elongation stage. The mean number recorded at peak population levels was 150–160 aphids per stem. During the period of plant senescence numbers dropped rapidly. Large reductions in yield were recorded on all infested plants. Single-plant data showed that yield reductions in the early winter cv. Betta were related to the duration of infestation. Relative to sprayed controls, reduction in kernel mass ranged from 25–80% and in 1000-kernel mass from 15–45%. However, the yield reductions of the faster-growing cv. Flamink, appeared to be dependent on the number of aphids per plant during the later growth stages and not the duration of infestation.     

Effect of bioregulator-treated sorghum on greenbug fecundity and feeding behavior: implications for host-plant resistance

Three commercial and six experimental plant growth bioregulators were surveyed for their effect on aphid reproduction when applied to sorghum. Only CCC and PIX had a significant effect on the greenbug, Schizaphis graminum. Application of the commercial bioregulators CCC and PIX^R caused about a 50% decrease in aphid reproduction rate when applied to greenbug susceptible sorghum but had little effect when applied to a greenbug resistant sorghum line. Electronic monitoring of aphid probing behavior on CCC treated, greenbug-susceptible sorghum showed a response pattern which was indistinguishable from that normally observed on greenbug resistant lines and was different from that associated with aphid probing behavior on untreated susceptible lines. The isolated pectin content of the CCC treated susceptible sorghum was twice that of the controls and had twice the methoxy content. These results support the argument that pectin is a barrier to aphid-stylet penetration for phloem feeding aphids which probe intercellularly and that manipulation of pectin content and/or structure can be a major factor in host-plant resistance to sap-sucking insects.     

Plant resistance components of two greenbug (Homoptera: Aphididae) resistant wheats

Several biotypes of the greenbug, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), attack winter wheat, Triticum aestivum L., on the Southern Plains every year. Two wheat germplasm sources of resistance ('Largo' and 'GRS 1201') have been developed that provide protection against the three predominant greenbug biotypes (E, I, and K). Each source has agronomic and end-use quality advantages and disadvantages for the breeder to consider in choosing a greenbug-resistant breeding line. We compared these two germplasms to determine their levels of resistance against biotype E. Components of resistance (i.e., antibiosis, antixenosis, and tolerance) were measured on seedlings of GRS 1201, Largo, and 'TAM W-101' (a susceptible control). Several aphid and plant measurements (e.g., total number of aphids produced per plant, aphid selection preferences, and plant damage ratings) were recorded for each plant entry. Select data recorded for each resistance component were normalized and combined to derive a plant resistance index for each wheat entry. Results indicated that GRS 1201 had a higher level of combined resistance components than did Largo, followed by TAM W-101, the susceptible control. These data provide additional information for the breeder to consider in selecting a greenbug-resistant breeding line.     

Resistance to greenbug (Heteroptera: Aphididae) biotype I in Aegilops tauschii synthetic wheats

The greenbug, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), is a major pest of wheat in North America, reducing U.S. wheat production by 60 to 100 million dollars each year. In this research, 149 wheat lines containing genes from Aegilops tauschii (Coss.) Schmal. were evaluated for resistance to greenbug biotype I. More than 50% of the lines sustained moderate foliar chlorosis from greenbug feeding, and approximately one third of all the lines were highly resistant. All lines with chlorosis scores similar to the resistant control 'Largo' expressed high levels of antibiosis, producing greenbug populations with mean weights ranging from 0.05 to 11.8 mg. There was no significant difference between greenbug weights on these lines and those reared on 'Largo', but the mean weight of individuals reared on the susceptible control 'Thunderbird' was significantly greater than those reared on 'Largo' or any of the test lines. The mean population size of greenbugs produced on plants of each line was significantly correlated with mean greenbug weight. Tolerance was not evident in any of the lines examined, but was unexpectedly apparent in 'Thunderbird' at a level similar to that in the tolerant control cultivar 'Largo'.     

Impact of tillage practices on Hessian fly-susceptible and resistant spring wheat cultivars

Hessian fly, Mayetiola destructor (Say), is a residue-borne pest of spring wheat that can become important in reduced tillage production systems. The relative abundance of Hessian fly was examined on spring wheat cultivars grown under conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT) practices in northern Idaho from 2000 to 2002. Six cultivars were tested: Hessian fly-susceptible 'Penawawa' and'Westbred 936' and -resistant (H3 gene) 'Wawawai', 'Jefferson', 'Hank', and 'Westbred 926.' Hessian fly egg densities were not significantly different among treatments, indicating ovipositing females showed no preference for tillage treatment or cultivar. Mean number of Hessian fly puparia per plant was significantly greater in CT plots during the last sampling in 2000; however, in 2001, NT plots had significantly more puparia than CT plots. Tillage had no significant effect on mean Hessian fly per plant in 2002. Significantly more puparia were observed on susceptible compared with resistant cultivars in 2000 and 2002. In 2001, susceptible Penawawa had significantly more puparia than resistant cultivars, whereas puparial densities on susceptible Westbred 936 were higher than on resistant cultivars other than Wawawai. Yield and 100-seed weight were not affected by tillage treatment. Significant variation in yield among cultivars was observed only in 2000, when fly-resistant Hank yielded the highest. Hank had the highest 100-seed weight in 2000 and 2001, whereas Penawawa and Jefferson had the lowest 100-seed weights each year. Reduced tillage had no consistent effect on spring wheat yield or abundance of Hessian fly under the conditions of our trials, which evaluated small plots.     

Identifying insecticide-resistant greenbugs (Homoptera: Aphididae) with diagnostic assay tests

Laboratory bioassays were used to develop a diagnostic assay test for identifying greenburg, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), populations that are insecticide-resistant. Petri dish assays with chlorpyrifos showed greenbug mortality should be monitored after 2 h of exposure. One-hour exposure did not kill a high percentage of susceptible greenbugs, and a 3-h exposure killed too many resistant greenbugs. Ethanol and methanol were both good solvents for mixing with chlorpyrifos in the petri dish assay. From the laboratory bioassays, four diagnostic concentrations of chlorpyrifos (3, 10, 30, and 100 ppm) were evaluated in the field by Texas A&M University agricultural research and extension entomologists across the Texas High Plains. Results from the diagnostic assay tests were compared with gel-electrophoresis resistance tests to validate resistance detection. The diagnostic assay tests gave the same greenbug resistance identification as the gel-electrophoresis analysis in 21 of 22 field bioassays in 1994 and 35 of 39 field bioassays in 1995. Diagnostic concentrations of 30 and 100 ppm chlorpyrifos killed > or = 85 and > or = 90%, respectively, of greenbugs identified by gel-electrophoresis as susceptible and < 40% and < 55%, respectively, of resistant greenbugs. The diagnostic assay technique is a quick, reliable, and inexpensive method for detecting insecticide resistance in greenbug populations.     

Reduction of Winter Wheat Yield Losses Caused by Stripe Rust through Fungicide Management

Stripe rust of winter bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) causes substantial grain yield loss in Central Asia. This study involved two replicated field experiments undertaken in 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 winter wheat crop seasons. The first experiment was conducted to determine grain yield reductions on susceptible winter wheat cultivars using single and two sprays of fungicide at Zadoks growth stages Z61–Z69 in two farmers’ fields in Tajikistan and one farmer's field in Uzbekistan. In the second experiment, four different fungicides at two concentrations were evaluated at Zadoks growth stage Z69. These included three products from BASF – Opus (0.5 l/ha and 1.0 l/ha), Platoon (0.5 l/ha and 1.0 l/ha) and Opera (0.75 l/ha and 1.5 l/ha) – and locally used fungicide Titul 390 (0.5 l/ha and 1.0 l/ha). One and two sprays of fungicides did not differ significantly (P > 0.05) in increasing grain yield. Stripe rust reduced grain yield and 1000‐kernel weight (TKW) from 24 to 39% and from 16 to 24%, respectively. The benefits from the two concentrations of the same fungicide did not consistently resulted in significantly higher grain yield, suggesting that the lower concentrations could be more cost effective. Our study provides important information about the selection of fungicides, spray concentrations and number of spray to control stripe rust and increase grain yield. The findings could play an important role in developing stripe rust management approaches such as fungicide rotation and strategic fungicide applications in Central Asian countries.     

Plant damage and yield response to the Russian wheat aphid (Homoptera: Aphididae) on susceptible and resistant winter wheats in Colorado

Plant damage and yield response to the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), were evaluated on a susceptible (TAM 107) and a resistant (RWA E1) winter wheat, Triticum aestivum L., in three Colorado locations in the 1993 and 1994 crop years. Russian wheat aphid was more abundant on TAM 107 than on RWA E1. Russian wheat aphid days per tiller were greater at the higher infestation levels. Yield losses as a result of Russian wheat aphid infestation occurred most of the time with TAM 107 but rarely with RWA E1. Seed densities were reduced at higher infestation levels in TAM 107 at two locations. Russian wheat aphids per tiller had a negative relationship to yield in TAM 107 but not in RWA E1. In TAM 107 yield decreased as aphid densities increased, but yield remained constant regardless of initial aphid abundance on RWA E1 in all environments. Seed densities were reduced at higher infestation levels in TAM 107 at two locations. The resistance conferred by the Dn4 gene seems to be an effective management approach across a range of field conditions.     

Quality losses in wheat caused by the orange wheat blossom midge Sitodiplosis mosellana

In three sets of data pooled over spring wheat varieties and lines a number of grain quality measurements were related to the levels of infestation by Sitodiplosis mosellana larvae. The Hagberg falling number value was negatively correlated with the proportion of damaged grains. The 1000-grain weight, protein content and gluten content were not affected. Differences between cultivars in infestation and damage level were found to depend on the development phenology (timing of ear emergence) and on the percentage of damaged grains remaining in the yield after harvest. The falling number values were reduced most when the attainable values remained low in cultivars prone to sprouting damage, and in seasons with unfavourable weather conditions for quality maintenance. The proportion of damaged grains in relation to the number of larvae was well described by a logit-transformed regression. Sampling for infestation level and preventive measures against quality loss are discussed.     

Fixed precision sequential sampling plans for the greenbug and bird cherry-oat aphid (Homoptera: Aphididae) in winter wheat

The numbers of greenbugs, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), and bird cherry-oat aphids, Rhopalosiphum padi L., per wheat tiller (stem) were estimated in 189 production winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) fields located throughout Oklahoma. Taylor's power law regressions were calculated from these data and used to construct fixed precision sequential sampling schemes for each species. An evaluation data set was constructed from 240 samples taken during three growing seasons from winter wheat fields at four locations in Oklahoma. Wheat cultivar and growth stage were recorded for each field on the day of sampling. Taylor's power law parameters for evaluation fields differed significantly for both species among growing seasons, locations, and plant growth stages. Median precision achieved using the fixed precision sequential sampling schemes for each species departed <20% from expected precision over the range population intensity in the evaluation data. For the 10% of samples with greatest deviation between observed and expected precision, observed precision was 13.8-81.8% greater than that expected precision depending on aphid species and population intensity. For the greenbug, the distribution of the percentage deviation between observed and expected precision was positively skewed, so that the sampling scheme tended to over-predict precision. For the bird cherry-oat aphid, the distribution was more symmetric. Even though precision observed using the sampling schemes frequently varied from expected precision, because of the inevitable consequence of sampling error and environmental variation, the sampling schemes yielded median observed precision levels close to expected precision levels over a broad range of population intensity.     

Short-term forecasting of wheat yield loss caused by the grain aphid (Sitobion avenae) in summer

A damage model was used to take into account the effect on winter wheat yield of the size, duration and timing of Sitobion avenae infestation in summer, and the influence of insecticide applications. It was validated as far as possible using available data, and appeared to be sufficiently accurate to be useful. The model was applied to a total of 32 winter wheat fields over the period 1975 to 1983 in eastern England and the Netherlands, to obtain estimates of yield losses associated with not applying insecticides at the end of ear emergence (G.S. 59), mid-anthesis (G.S. 65) or the end of anthesis (G.S. 69). These estimates of future yield losses were related in multiple regressions to the number of S. avenae per tiller at the time the insecticide was applied, and the rate of population increase over the previous few days. Basing the decision about whether to apply insecticide on forecasts from the multiple regression equations appeared to be slightly more profitable than prophylactic spraying when the chemical cost alone was considered, but substantially more profitable when the application cost and wheeling loss were also taken into account. The strategy minimising losses involved forecasts at all three crop growth stages. It was validated using a further 21 fields studied in 1984 and 1985, and gave better results than the EPIPRE system, which over-estimated the number of fields requiring spraying, and the economic threshold of George & Gair (1979), which under-estimated the number requiring spraying. However, the accuracy of the damage model needs to be checked against measured yield losses in order to establish the success of the multiple regression strategy conclusively.