Impact of climate change and prey abundance on nesting success of a top predator, the goshawk

Contemporary research has documented a large number of shifts in spring phenology and changes in distribution range although the average spring temperatures have increased by only 0.3–0.6 °C over the past 100 years. Generally, earlier breeding birds have larger clutch sizes, and the advancing spring could thus potentially increase breeding success. Shifts in spring phenology can, however, be crucial for bird reproduction, and mistiming the breeding event may even have negative consequences for population development. Our aim was to explore how weather and prey abundance relates to the breeding performance of a north European top predator, the northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Our nationwide dataset from Finland, spanning the period 1989–2004, shows that ambient weather has a greater impact on the timing and success of breeding than the density of grouse Tetraonidae, the main prey of goshawks. Higher early spring temperatures were associated with advancing hatching date of goshawks. Correspondingly, grouse density and temperature during laying and brooding were positively associated with brood size, while precipitation showed a negative connection. Applying our models to a future scenario of climate warming, combined with a 50 % reduction in grouse density, suggests that average breeding dates will advance only 2.5 days and average breeding success would remain the same. Notably, breeding success was not spatially equal throughout Finland, as northern and eastern populations suffered most from declining grouse densities. The observed pattern is thus the opposite to what is expected from a population situated at the northern edge of its distribution range, and thus may help to understand why populations may not increase at the northern edge of their thermal distribution due to climate change.     

Vulnerability of black grouse hens to goshawk predation: result of food supply or predation facilitation?

The plant cycle hypothesis says that poor-quality food affects both herbivorous voles (Microtinae spp.) and grouse (Tetraonidae spp.) in vole decline years, leading to increased foraging effort in female grouse and thus a higher risk of predation by the goshawk Accipiter gentilis. Poor-quality food (mainly the bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus) for these herbivores is induced by seed masting failure in the previous year, when the bilberry is able to allocate resources for chemical defence (the mast depression hypothesis; MDH). The predation facilitation hypothesis (PFH) in turn states that increased searching activity of vole-eating predators during or after the decline year of voles disturbs incubating and brooding grouse females. The behaviours used by grouse to avoid these terrestrial predators make them more vulnerable to predation by goshawks. We tested the main predictions of the MDH and PFH by collecting long-term (21-year) data from black grouse Tetrao tetrix hens and cocks killed by breeding goshawks supplemented with indices of bilberry crop, vole abundance and small carnivores in the vicinity of Oulu, northern Finland. We did not find obvious support for the prediction of the MDH that there is a negative correlation of bilberry crop in year t with vole abundance and with predation index of black grouse hens in year t + 1. We did find obvious support for the prediction of the PFH that there is a positive correlation between predator abundance and predation index of grouse hens, because the stoat Mustela erminea abundance index was positively related to the predation index of black grouse hens. We suggest that changes in vulnerability of grouse hens may mainly be caused by the guild of vole-eating predators, who shift to alternative prey in the decline phase of the vole cycle, and thus chase grouse hens and chicks to the talons of goshawks and other avian predators.     

Habitat composition as a determinant of reproductive success of Tengmalm's owls under fluctuating food conditions

The effect of landscape composition on the breeding success of vole-eating Tengmalm's owl ( Aegolius funereus ) was studied in western Finland at five different spatial scales (250–4000 m) around the nests during two consecutive three-year population cycles of voles. Landscape composition had strongest effects on owl breeding in the decrease phase of vole cycles. Significant variation in owl breeding occurred along the productivity gradient from farmland predominated areas to barren hinterland. Owls tended to produce earlier clutches on territories predominated by agricultural areas in increasing vole years. A similar trend was observed in the decreasing phase of the vole cycle; owls breeding on barren hinterland seemed to delay breeding compared to owls breeding near agricultural areas. Surprisingly, nestling survival and fledgling production in the decreasing phase declined steeply with increasing proportion of farmland. Clutch size was not significantly related to landscape composition. The number of fledglings decreased with increases in clear-cut and sapling areas in the decrease phase. During the declining years of vole abundance nestling survival increased from western farmland areas towards the eastern outlying district. These results indicate sudden summer decline of vole populations on farmland predominated habitats. This is probably due to that the number of vole-eating predators, and hence their impact on vole populations is apparently higher in farmland areas than on forested hinterland. This finding gives support for the 'spill-over' hypothesis, which states that predators and their exploitation tends to 'spill over' from luxuriant habitats to the barren habitats.     

Diet variation of common buzzards in Finland supports the alternative prey hypothesis

The regional synchrony of short-term population fluctuations of small rodents and small game has usually been explained by varying impacts of generalist predators subsisting on both voles and small game (the "alternative prey hypothesis" APH). APH says that densities of predators increase as a response to increasing vole densities and then these predators shift their diet from the main prey to the alternative prey when the main prey decline and vice versa. We studied the diet composition of breeding common buzzards Buteo buteo during 1985-92 in western Finland. Microtus voles were the main prey and water voles, shrews, forest grouse, hares and small birds the most important alternative prey. Our data from the between-year variation in the diet composition of buzzards fulfilled the main predictions of APH. The yearly proportion of main prey (Microtus voles) in the diet was higher in years of high than low vole abundance. The proportion of grouse in the diet of buzzards was negatively related to the abundance of Microtus voles in the field and was nearly independent of grouse abundance in the field. In addition, buzzards mainly took grouse chicks and young hares which is consistent with the prediction of APH. Therefore, we conclude that buzzards are able to shift their diet in the way predicted by the APH and that buzzards, together with other generalist predators, may reduce the breeding success of small game in the decline phase of the vole cycle, and thus substantially contribute to the existence of short-term population cycles of small game.     

Prey abundance and reproductive success of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos in Sweden

Reproductive output of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos (L.), was studied in two areas within the species distribution in northern Sweden during 1975–1980. Reproductive success was compared with the abundance (based on hunting bag statistics) of small game prey species and with the microtine cycles. The proportion of golden eagle pairs with successful breeding and the number of young produced per occupied territory varied greatly between years (21–85% and 0.27–1.24, respectively). In the northern study area I found a significant correlation between the proportion of pairs with successful breeding versus total hunting bag of small game species. There were also significant correlations between vole density and breeding success one year later. This was not the case in the southern study area, mainly due to a good reproductive year for golden eagles in 1977 when small game species were scarce. The good reproductive output in 1977 may be explained by favourable weather conditions that spring. Whether breeding occurs or not is probably determined by prey abundance early in spring just before the golden eagle female lays her eggs.     

Reproduction of the bank vole, Clethrionomys glareolus, in northern and southern Sweden during several seasons and in different phases of the vole population cycle

The breeding biology of the bank vole was studied in northern and southern populations in Sweden in the years 1973–76. Trapped specimens supplied organ weights and histological data, which were utilized to describe the breeding season, number and size of litters, reproductive losses, spermatogenesis, and sexual maturation. In the north the populations are cyclic. During the increase phase of the cycle the breeding season was long, litter sizes and gonad weights were large, and there was maturation of yearlings in the summer. During the peak phase reproduction was impaired in all these respects. In southern Sweden there was no cyclicity, and the reproductive events varied less, but in 1976 the litters were larger than usual and the season was much extended.
In the south the voles born during the early part of the season regularly became sexually mature during their first summer. The differences in reproductive biology are related to population dynamics and discussed in terms of different hypotheses concerning vole population cyclicity.     

Mechanisms and reproductive consequences of breeding dispersal in a specialist predator under temporally varying food conditions

Individual variation in breeding dispersal has extensive ecological and evolutionary consequences, but the factors driving individual dispersal behaviour and their fitness consequences remain poorly understood. Our data on dispersal events of a rodent‐specialist predator, the Eurasian kestrel Falco tinnunculus, over 20 years in western Finland offers a unique opportunity to explore the mechanisms underlying breeding dispersal behaviour and its reproductive consequences in a wild bird population. Sex, age, body condition and previous breeding success affected breeding dispersal. Dispersal distances were longer in females than in males as well as longer in yearlings than in older individuals. Body condition was positively correlated to breeding dispersal distances, particularly for females. The lowest dispersal distances were recorded for intermediate brood sizes in the year preceding dispersal. Our results highlight sex‐ and environment‐specific consequences of breeding dispersal on reproductive performance. During increase phases of the three‐year vole cycles, males dispersing further had lower reproductive performance after dispersal, whereas in females, long breeding dispersal distances were associated with increased breeding success under all environmental conditions. These results suggest benefits associated to breeding dispersal in females, potentially related to large spatio‐temporal variation in main food abundance and intensity of intra‐specific competition. Breeding dispersal of males was costly during increasing food abundance, indicating the potential fitness benefits of environmental familiarity in this migratory species. Overall, our results indicate that both individual traits and environmental factors interact to shape breeding dispersal strategies in wide‐ranging predator populations under fluctuating food conditions.     

Coping with fast climate change in northern ecosystems: mechanisms underlying the population‐level response of a specialist avian predator

Northern ecosystems are facing unprecedented climate modifications, which pose a major threat for arctic species, especially the specialist predator guild. However, the mechanisms underlying responses of predators to climate change remain poorly understood. Climate can influence fitness parameters of predators either through reduced reproduction or survival following adverse weather conditions, or via changes in the population dynamics of their main prey. Here, we combined three overlapping long‐term datasets on the breeding density and parameters of a rodent‐specialist predator, the rough‐legged buzzard Buteo lagopus, its main prey population dynamics and climate variables, collected in subarctic areas of Finland and Norway, to assess the impact of changing climate on the predator reproductive response. Rough‐legged buzzards responded to ongoing climate change by advancing their laying date (0.1 d yr^?1 over the 21 yr of the study period), as a consequence of earlier snowmelt. However, we documented for the same period a decrease in breeding success, which principally resulted from an indirect effect of changes in the dynamics of their main prey, i.e. grey‐sided voles Microtus oeconomus, and not from the expected negative effect of unfavorable weather conditions during the brood‐rearing period on nestling survival. Additionally, we showed the striking impact of autumn and winter weather conditions on vole population growth rates in subarctic ecosystems, with a strong positive correlation between mean snow depth in autumn and winter and both winter and summer population growth rates. Our results highlighted that, in northern ecosystems, ongoing climate change has the potential to impact specialist predator species through two mechanistic linkages, which may in the long‐run, threaten the viability of their populations, and lead to potential severe cascading trophic effects at the ecosystem level.     

Effects of vole fluctuations on the population dynamics of the barn owl <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tyto alba</Emphasis>

Many predator species feed on prey that fluctuates in abundance from year to year. Birds of prey can face large fluctuations in food abundance i.e. small mammals, especially voles. These annual changes in prey abundance strongly affect the reproductive success and mortality of the individual predators and thus can be expected to influence their population dynamics and persistence. The barn owl, for example, shows large fluctuations in breeding success that correlate with the dynamics in voles, their main prey species. Analysis of the impact of fluctuations in vole abundance (their amplitude, peaks and lows, cycle length and regularity) with a simple predator prey model parameterized with literature data indicates population persistence is especially affected by years with low vole abundance. In these years the population can decline to low owl numbers such that the ensuing peak vole years cannot be exploited. This result is independent of the length and regularity of vole fluctuations. The relevance of this result for conservation of the barn owl and other birds of prey that show a numerical response to fluctuating prey species is discussed.     

Variable responses of waterfowl breeding populations to long-term removal of introduced American mink

It is suspected that feral American mink, an introduced predator in Europe, have seriously affected local densities of birds breeding in archipelagos and coastal areas. We studied the effects of mink removal on breeding densities of waterfowl in two manipulation and two control areas in the outer archipelago of SW Finland, Baltic Sea. The study was conducted in two phases: during 1992–2001 a total of 98 mink was removed from 60 islands and islets (total area 72 km²) whereas on 37 islands and islets (35 km²) mink was not removed. Additional mink removal and control areas were established during 1998–2001 to replicate the experiment. The breeding densities of the shelduck, tufted duck and the velvet scoter increased as a response to mink removal, while in the control areas their populations remained unchanged. The breeding densities of mallards increased during the first 7 yr of mink removal, but a steep decrease in the last study year resulted in a statistically non-significant overall increase. The species with low breeding densities (the gadwall, northern shoveler, pintail and the red-breasted merganser) increased as well. In contrast, the populations of large waterfowl species, the mute swan, greylag goose, common eider and the goosander, did not show obvious increases in breeding densities after mink removal. We conclude that feral mink may locally limit the breeding densities of some smaller waterfowl species and thus reduce the diversity of the waterfowl community in the outer archipelago.     

Patterns in grouse and Woodcock Scolopax rusticola hunting yields from central Norway 1901–24 do not support the alternative prey hypothesis for grouse cycles

According to the alternative prey hypothesis, autumn populations of ground-nesting game birds fluctuate in synchrony with vole numbers because generalist predators that mainly eat voles switch to alternative prey, such as eggs and chicks, when vole numbers decline. In hunting statistics from Nord-Trøndelag, central Norway, 1901–24, annual fluctuations in the number of Willow Grouse Lagopus lagopus and Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus , but not of Woodcock Scolopax rusticola , were positively related to vole numbers in the current year. Both Woodcock and grouse indices were related to hunting indices of Goshawk Accipiter gentilis and to weather variables assumed to influence the birds' survival or reproduction, suggesting that the indices actually reflected local population levels. Synchronous vole and grouse fluctuations are consistent with the alternative prey hypothesis (although predator densities were low in the early 1900s), but the asynchronous Woodcock fluctuations refute the hypothesis. Rather, because the Woodcock does not feed on plants utilized by voles and grouse, I suggest that food quality is the ultimate factor for the synchrony in vole and grouse numbers in Norway.     

The diet of breeding female wolverines (Gulo gulo) in two areas of Finland

The wolverine (Gulo gulo) hunts and scavenges for food. We examined how the presence of a semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) influences the diet of breeding female wolverines in Finland. We compared the dietary composition of wolverines breeding in the reindeer management area (northern Finland) with that of wolverines breeding outside this area (eastern Finland) by analyzing 421 scats collected from six active dens in northern Finland and four dens in eastern Finland during 2004–2006. The occurrence of food sources in the diet was assessed for both areas using logistic mixed-effects models. Diet breadth per study area was also calculated. As expected, semi-domesticated reindeer was the most important food source (66 %) in northern Finland. Mountain hares (Lepus timidus) were the second most important food item (16 %). Wolverines also utilized grouse (7 %), small rodents (6 %), and moose (Alces alces; 4 %) in their diet. In eastern Finland, the most utilized prey species was moose (55 %), while the diet also comprised mountain hares (13 %), domestic pigs (Sus scrofa; 13 %), grouse (11 %), and small rodents (2 %). The diet of wolverines in eastern Finland included more moose and less semi-domesticated reindeers and small rodents than in northern Finland. The niche breadth did not differ between the study areas. In eastern Finland, the diet of wolverines shifted to 55 % moose and 0 % semi-domesticated reindeer; compared to 4 % moose and 66 % semi-domesticated reindeer in northern Finland. Our study highlights the important role of ungulates in the diet of breeding female wolverines. In areas with a low density of medium-sized ungulates, scavenging for wolf- and human-killed moose and carcasses on feeding sites plays an essential role in food acquisition by wolverines.     

Strong territoriality and weak density‐dependent reproduction in Lesser Spotted Eagles Clanga pomarina

We assessed whether populations of the migratory, philopatric, territorial Lesser Spotted Eagle Clanga pomarina are regulated through territoriality and density‐dependent reproduction rates. In the north‐western part of the distribution to the east of the Baltic Sea, territories were spaced regularly and consistently between years. We did not find strong support for an improvement of reproductive output with an increase in distance to the nearest neighbour or with a decrease of the number of conspecifics within a 2‐km radius around nest‐sites. Eagles differed greatly in territory spacing across three studied geographical areas, but breeding performance did not follow the same pattern. Performance of birds at the northern limit of their distribution did not differ from that in an adjacent southern area. Moreover, breeding performance fluctuated synchronously across different geographical areas, perhaps indicating climatic spatial autocorrelation or trophic interactions with synchronous vole population fluctuations over large areas. Our data suggest population regulation through territoriality but do not identify density‐dependent breeding performance in this internationally protected raptor. Population density may be a good criterion for the selection of priority sites for conservation, but synchronous fluctuations in reproductive success over large geographical areas suggest that habitat conservation should similarly be focused at large scales.     

Preference and performance of a gall-inducing sawfly: plant vigor, sex, gall traits and phenology

Four hypotheses regarding the role of predation in the population dynamics of eruptive small mammal communities were tested using the small mammal assemblage found in mixed forests in New Zealand. Large-scale (750 ha) predator removal was conducted, targeting stoats ( Mustela erminea ). House mouse ( Mus musculus ) and ship rat ( Rattus rattus ) population dynamics during an eruption were compared in areas with and without predator reduction. The success of predator reduction was measured by comparing live-capture rates of predators on treatment and non-treatment areas, and by recruitment rates of the threatened northern brown kiwi ( Apteryx australis mantelli ). Overall, predator reduction was successful, although there was a continual low rate of reinvasion. The predictions and results were that 1) Predators can slow but not prevent a population eruption. Supported: Populations of mice and rats erupted to high densities in areas with and without predator reduction, following synchronous southern beech ( Nothofagus spp.) seeding. 2) Predators cannot truncate peak prey population size. Supported: Peak densities of mice and rats were not significantly different between treatment and non-treatment areas. 3) Predators can hasten the rate of decline in prey populations during the crash phase. Not supported: There was evidence of populations of mice and rats declining slower in areas with predators removed, but none of the trends were significant. 4) Predators can limit low-phase prey populations. Equivocal: Populations of rats in beech forest, and population of mice and rats in coastline habitats were significantly higher in areas with predators removed, but were not significantly different in tawa-podocarp forest. Therefore, the role of food in driving the early stages of the mouse and rat eruption was demonstrated, but the role of predation in the decline and low phases is unclear.     

Changes in population structure and reproduction during a 3-yr population cycle of voles

Cyclic changes in population growth rate are caused by changes in survival and/or reproductive rate. To find out whether cyclic changes in reproduction are an important part of the mechanism causing cyclic fluctuations in small mammal populations, we studied changes in the population structure and reproduction of field voles ( Microtus agrestis ), sibling voles ( M. rossiaemeridionalis ), bank voles ( Clethrionomys glareolus ), and common shrews ( Sorex araneus ) in western Finland during 1984–1992, in an area with 3-yr vole cycles. We also modelled the population growth of voles using parameter values from this study. The animals studied were collected by snap trapping in April, May, June, August, September, and, during 1986–1990, also in October. We found several phase-related differences in the population structure (age structure, sex ratio, proportion of mature individuals) and reproduction (litter size, length of the breeding season) of voles. In non-cyclic common shrews, the only significant phase-related difference was a lower proportion of overwintered individuals in the increase phase. According to the analyses and the vole model, phase-related changes in litter size had only a minor impact on population growth rate. The same was true for winter breeding in the increase phase. The length and intensity of the summer breeding season had an effect on yearly population growth but this impact was relatively weak compared to the effect of cyclic changes in survival. The population increase rates of Microtus were delayed dependent on density (8–12-month time lag). Our results indicate that cyclic changes in reproduction are not an important part of the mechanism driving cyclic fluctuations in vole populations. Low survival of young individuals appeared to play an important role in the shift from the peak to the decline phase in late summer and early autumn.     

Habitat loss and raptor predation: disentangling long- and short-term causes of red grouse declines

The number of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) shot in the UK has declined by 50% during the 20th century This decline has coincided with reductions in the area of suitable habitat and recoveries in the populations of some avian predators. Here we use long-term records of shooting bags and a large-scale manipulation of raptor density to disentangle the effects of habitat loss and raptor predation on grouse populations. The numbers of grouse harvested on the Eskdale half of Langholm Moor in southern Scotland declined significantly during 1913-1990 and grouse bags from the whole moor from 1950 to 1990 exhibited an almost identical but non-significant trend. Hen harriers (Circus cyaneus) and peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) were absent or bred at low densities on this moor throughout this period but heather-dominant vegetation declined by 48% between 1948 and 1988. Harrier and peregrine breeding numbers on Langholm Moor increased to high levels following protection in 1990 whilst grouse density and grouse bags declined year after year until shooting was abandoned in 1998. The prediction of a peak in grouse bags on Langholm Moor in 1996 based on the patterns of bags during 1950-1990 was supported by the observed peaks in 1997 on two nearby moors with few raptors which formerly cycled in synchrony with Langholm Moor. This study demonstrates that, whilst long-term declines in grouse bags were most probably due to habitat loss, high levels of raptor predation subsequently limited the grouse population and suppressed a cycle. This study thus offers support to theoretical models which predict that generalist predators may suppress cycles in prey populations.     

Numerical responses of an avian predator to prey fluctuations in a temperate latitude: breeders vs. entire population

Distinct numerical responses of predators to fluctuations in the abundance of their prey are often observed in northern regions but occur more rarely in temperate latitudes. This statement is, however, mostly based on observations of breeding populations, while in some predators, for example in raptors, numerous non-breeding floaters can occur. I estimated the breeding density and reproductive performance (nest survey) as well as the density of entire population (transects with distance sampling) of the common buzzard Buteo buteo in western Poland (52°N) in the years 2005–2014 to test the hypotheses that in temperate latitudes: (1) the breeding population of these birds does not show any numerical response, understood as annual changes in their abundance; (2) its reproductive success, however, changes with the abundance of main prey, the common vole Microtus arvalis; and (3) hence the entire buzzard population (including potential immature floaters) present in a given area during the nesting period responds numerically with some time delay. The reproductive success of buzzards was positively correlated with their prey abundance. Contrary to my predictions, however, the breeding population of buzzards showed a slight numerical response with a 3-year lag and the entire population tracked vole fluctuations without any time delay. The immediate numerical response of the entire buzzard population was probably caused by large-scale movements of floaters. Such rapid numerical responses of some predators may contribute to the relative stability of prey populations in temperate latitudes compared to northern regions.     

Reproductive responses of temperate and boreal Tengmalm's Owl Aegolius funereus populations to spatial and temporal variation in prey availability

Environmental variation across space and time can strongly influence life‐history strategies in vertebrates. It has been shown that the reproductive success of birds of prey is closely related to food availability. However, relatively little is known about intraspecific differences in reproductive success of birds in relation to varying ecological conditions across environmental gradients. We investigated the reproductive performance of Tengmalm's Owls Aegolius funereus in a temperate (Czech Republic, 50°N) and a boreal (Finland, 63°N) population in relation to long‐term variations in the abundance of their main prey (small rodents). Prey densities at the northern site were much higher, but there were also large inter‐annual fluctuations and years with steep summer declines of vole densities. Northern owls laid larger clutches but offspring production per nest was similar at both study sites. This resulted from higher nestling mortality in the northern population, especially in nests established later in the season. Despite much greater nesting losses due to predation by Pine Martens Martes martes, productivity at the population level was about four times greater at the temperate site, mainly due to the much higher breeding densities compared with Finland. Tengmalm's Owls at the temperate study site may benefit from relatively stable prey abundance, a more diverse prey community that offers alternative prey during vole scarcity, longer nights in summer that allow more time for foraging, and a lower level of interspecific competition with other vole‐specialized predators.     

Coupling in goshawk and grouse population dynamics in Finland

Different prey species can vary in their significance to a particular predator. In the simplest case, the total available density or biomass of a guild of several prey species might be most relevant to the predator, but behavioural and ecological traits of different prey species can alter the picture. We studied the population dynamics of a predator–prey setting in Finland by fitting first-order log-linear vector autoregressive models to long-term count data from active breeding sites of the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis; 1986–2009), and to three of its main prey species (1983–2010): hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and capercaillie (T. urogallus), which belong to the same forest grouse guild and show synchronous fluctuations. Our focus was on modelling the relative significance of prey species and estimating the tightness of predator–prey coupling in order to explain the observed population dynamics, simultaneously accounting for effects of density dependence, winter severity and spatial correlation. We established nine competing candidate models, where different combinations of grouse species affect goshawk dynamics with lags of 1–3 years. Effects of goshawk on grouse were investigated using one model for each grouse species. The most parsimonious model for goshawk indicated separate density effects of hazel grouse and black grouse, and different effects with lags of 1 and 3 years. Capercaillie showed no effects on goshawk populations, while the effect of goshawk on grouse was clearly negative only in capercaillie. Winter severity had significant adverse effects on goshawk and hazel grouse populations. In combination, large-scale goshawk–grouse population dynamics are coupled, but there are no clear mutual effects for any of the individual guild members. In a broader context, our study suggests that pooling data on closely related, synchronously fluctuating prey species can result in the loss of relevant information, rather than increased model parsimony.     

Diet of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos during the breeding season in Sweden

During a five-year period, 1975–1979, a total of 2881 prey individuals of 65 prey species were collected at 162 golden eagle nests from northern Sweden and from the island of Gotland. In northern Sweden birds are taken in higher numbers than mammals but calculated as weight the two categories are of equal importance, The main prey during the breeding season are capercaillie, black grouse, willow grouse, ptarmigan, mountain hare and reindeer fawns which together form 91% of the total food biomass. The capercaillie and the black grouse are taken more in the southern part of the coniferous region than in the northern. In contrast, in northern areas, reindeer fawns are more preyed upon than in the South, Ptarmigan and willow grouse are the most commonly captured prey species in mountain areas. The total number of reindeer fawns taken (dead and/or alive) by the Swedish golden eagle population during one summer is estimated at 600 individuals. On Gotland the golden eagles take mammals more often than in its northern distribution area. Rabbit and hedgehog arc the most important species.