Stochastic S-system modeling of gene regulatory network

Microarray gene expression data can provide insights into biological processes at a system-wide level and is commonly used for reverse engineering gene regulatory networks (GRN). Due to the amalgamation of noise from different sources, microarray expression profiles become inherently noisy leading to significant impact on the GRN reconstruction process. Microarray replicates (both biological and technical), generated to increase the reliability of data obtained under noisy conditions, have limited influence in enhancing the accuracy of reconstruction . Therefore, instead of the conventional GRN modeling approaches which are deterministic, stochastic techniques are becoming increasingly necessary for inferring GRN from noisy microarray data. In this paper, we propose a new stochastic GRN model by investigating incorporation of various standard noise measurements in the deterministic S-system model. Experimental evaluations performed for varying sizes of synthetic network, representing different stochastic processes, demonstrate the effect of noise on the accuracy of genetic network modeling and the significance of stochastic modeling for GRN reconstruction . The proposed stochastic model is subsequently applied to infer the regulations among genes in two real life networks: (1) the well-studied IRMA network, a real-life in-vivo synthetic network constructed within the Saccharomycescerevisiae yeast, and (2) the SOS DNA repair network in Escherichiacoli.     

Stochastic analogues of deterministic single-species population models

Although single-species deterministic difference equations have long been used in modeling the dynamics of animal populations, little attention has been paid to how stochasticity should be incorporated into these models. By deriving stochastic analogues to difference equations from first principles, we show that the form of these models depends on whether noise in the population process is demographic or environmental. When noise is demographic, we argue that variance around the expectation is proportional to the expectation. When noise is environmental the variance depends in a non-trivial way on how variation enters into model parameters, but we argue that if the environment affects the population multiplicatively then variance is proportional to the square of the expectation. We compare various stochastic analogues of the Ricker map model by fitting them, using maximum likelihood estimation, to data generated from an individual-based model and the weevil data of Utida. Our demographic models are significantly better than our environmental models at fitting noise generated by population processes where noise is mainly demographic. However, the traditionally chosen stochastic analogues to deterministic models--additive normally distributed noise and multiplicative lognormally distributed noise--generally fit all data sets well. Thus, the form of the variance does play a role in the fitting of models to ecological time series, but may not be important in practice as first supposed.     

Borrowing information across genes and experiments for improved error variance estimation in microarray data analysis

Statistical inference for microarray experiments usually involves the estimation of error variance for each gene. Because the sample size available for each gene is often low, the usual unbiased estimator of the error variance can be unreliable. Shrinkage methods, including empirical Bayes approaches that borrow information across genes to produce more stable estimates, have been developed in recent years. Because the same microarray platform is often used for at least several experiments to study similar biological systems, there is an opportunity to improve variance estimation further by borrowing information not only across genes but also across experiments. We propose a lognormal model for error variances that involves random gene effects and random experiment effects. Based on the model, we develop an empirical Bayes estimator of the error variance for each combination of gene and experiment and call this estimator BAGE because information is Borrowed Across Genes and Experiments. A permutation strategy is used to make inference about the differential expression status of each gene. Simulation studies with data generated from different probability models and real microarray data show that our method outperforms existing approaches.     

Sustainable ecosystem management using optimal control theory: part 2 (stochastic systems)

Sustainable development of ecosystems through external ecosystem management is assuming importance for the environmentalists. To that effect, previous work by the authors looked at the option of manipulating population dynamics of the species in an ecosystem to achieve sustainability. Fisher information is used as the quantifying measure of sustainability and optimal control theory is used to derive the control profiles. However, that work considered only deterministic systems. Uncertainty being prevalent in all systems, particularly in natural systems, this paper extends that work to analyse uncertain systems. Predator-prey models are used to model the species populations and different control philosophies are compared. Ito mean reverting process is used to model the stochastic process, and stochastic maximum principle is used to derive the control profiles. The results for the objective of FI variance minimization qualitatively agree with those for the deterministic system, while the results for the FI maximization objective differ. It is observed that the instability associated with the FI maximization objective for deterministic systems is absorbed by the noise introduced by the uncertainty. Quantitatively, it is observed that the degree of uncertainty, along with its presence, is also important to identify the most appropriate management strategy.     

Rosetta error model for gene expression analysis

MOTIVATION: In microarray gene expression studies, the number of replicated microarrays is usually small because of cost and sample availability, resulting in unreliable variance estimation and thus unreliable statistical hypothesis tests. The unreliable variance estimation is further complicated by the fact that the technology-specific variance is intrinsically intensity-dependent. RESULTS: The Rosetta error model captures the variance-intensity relationship for various types of microarray technologies, such as single-color arrays and two-color arrays. This error model conservatively estimates intensity error and uses this value to stabilize the variance estimation. We present two commonly used error models: the intensity error-model for single-color microarrays and the ratio error model for two-color microarrays or ratios built from two single-color arrays. We present examples to demonstrate the strength of our error models in improving statistical power of microarray data analysis, particularly, in increasing expression detection sensitivity and specificity when the number of replicates is limited.     

Accounting for probe-level noise in principal component analysis of microarray data

MOTIVATION: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is one of the most popular dimensionality reduction techniques for the analysis of high-dimensional datasets. However, in its standard form, it does not take into account any error measures associated with the data points beyond a standard spherical noise. This indiscriminate nature provides one of its main weaknesses when applied to biological data with inherently large variability, such as expression levels measured with microarrays. Methods now exist for extracting credibility intervals from the probe-level analysis of cDNA and oligonucleotide microarray experiments. These credibility intervals are gene and experiment specific, and can be propagated through an appropriate probabilistic downstream analysis. RESULTS: We propose a new model-based approach to PCA that takes into account the variances associated with each gene in each experiment. We develop an efficient EM-algorithm to estimate the parameters of our new model. The model provides significantly better results than standard PCA, while remaining computationally reasonable. We show how the model can be used to 'denoise' a microarray dataset leading to improved expression profiles and tighter clustering across profiles. The probabilistic nature of the model means that the correct number of principal components is automatically obtained.     

Stochastic models for phytoplankton dynamics in Mediterranean Sea

In this paper, we review some results obtained from three one-dimensional stochastic models, which were used to analyze picophytoplankton dynamics in two sites of the Mediterranean Sea. Firstly, we present a stochastic advection–reaction–diffusion model to describe the vertical spatial distribution of picoeukaryotes in a site of the Sicily Channel. The second model, which is an extended version of the first one, is used to obtain the vertical stationary profiles of two groups of picophytoplankton, i.e. Pelagophytes and Prochlorococcus, in the same marine site as in the previous case. Here, we include intraspecific competition of picophytoplanktonic groups for limiting factors, i.e. light intensity and nutrient concentration. Finally, we analyze the spatio-temporal behaviour of five picophytoplankton populations in a site of the Tyrrhenian Sea by using a reaction–diffusion–taxis model. The study is performed, taking into account the seasonal changes of environmental variables, obtained starting from experimental findings. The multiplicative noise source, present in all three models, mimics the random fluctuations of temperature and velocity field. The vertical profiles of chlorophyll concentration obtained from the stochastic models show a good agreement with experimental data sampled in the two marine sites considered. The results could be useful to devise a new class of models based on a stochastic approach and able to predict future changes in biomass primary production.     

Biological assessment of robust noise models in microarray data analysis

MOTIVATION: Although several recently proposed analysis packages for microarray data can cope with heavy-tailed noise, many applications rely on Gaussian assumptions. Gaussian noise models foster computational efficiency. This comes, however, at the expense of increased sensitivity to outlying observations. Assessing potential insufficiencies of Gaussian noise in microarray data analysis is thus important and of general interest. RESULTS: We propose to this end assessing different noise models on a large number of microarray experiments. The goodness of fit of noise models is quantified by a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of variance model, which predicts normalized expression values as a mixture of a Gaussian density and t-distributions with adjustable degrees of freedom. Inference of differentially expressed genes is taken into consideration at a second mixing level. For attaining far reaching validity, our investigations cover a wide range of analysis platforms and experimental settings. As the most striking result, we find irrespective of the chosen preprocessing and normalization method in all experiments that a heavy-tailed noise model is a better fit than a simple Gaussian. Further investigations revealed that an appropriate choice of noise model has a considerable influence on biological interpretations drawn at the level of inferred genes and gene ontology terms. We conclude from our investigation that neglecting the over dispersed noise in microarray data can mislead scientific discovery and suggest that the convenience of Gaussian-based modelling should be replaced by non-parametric approaches or other methods that account for heavy-tailed noise.     

Identification of humoral immune responses in protein microarrays using DNA microarray data analysis techniques

MOTIVATION: We present a study of antigen expression signals from a newly developed high-throughput protein microarray technique. These signals are a measure of antibody-antigen binding activity and provide a basis for understanding humoral immune responses to various infectious agents and supporting vaccine and diagnostic development. RESULTS: We investigate the characteristics of these expression profiles and show that noise models, normalization, variance estimation and differential expression analysis techniques developed in the context of DNA microarray analysis can be adapted and applied to these protein arrays. Using a high-dimensional dataset containing measurements of expression profiles of antibody reactivity against each protein (295 antigens and 9 controls) in 42 malaria (Plasmodium falciparum) protein arrays derived from 22 donors with various clinical presentations of malaria, we present a methodology for the analysis and identification of significantly expressed antigens targeted by immune responses for individual sera, groups of sera and across stages of infection. We also conduct a short study highlighting the top immunoreactive antigens where we identify three novel high priority antigens for future evaluation. AVAILABILITY: All software programs (in R) used for the analysis described in this paper are freely available for academic purposes at www.igb.uci.edu/servers/servers.html.     

一类生物种群投资的最优采收控制

在原有的Gauss白噪声刻画环境噪声项的基础上,考虑环境不可预知的跳跃性变化,运用Lévy白噪声建立了有界环境中的随机生物种群模型.并且,引入随机奇异控制来描述投资者的最优采收策略.进一步地,构造一族有着不同起点的控制问题,利用动态规划的思想,给出了最优采收控制问题解的充分条件,进而,将随机控制问题的求解转化为确定型偏微分方程的求解.     

Stochastic Fluctuations Through Intrinsic Noise in Evolutionary Game Dynamics

A one-step (birth–death) process is used to investigate stochastic noise in an elementary two-phenotype evolutionary game model based on a payoff matrix. In this model, we assume that the population size is finite but not fixed and that all individuals have, in addition to the frequency-dependent fitness given by the evolutionary game, the same background fitness that decreases linearly in the total population size. Although this assumption guarantees population extinction is a globally attracting absorbing barrier of the Markov process, sample trajectories do not illustrate this result even for relatively small carrying capacities. Instead, the observed persistent transient behavior can be analyzed using the steady-state statistics (i.e., mean and variance) of a stochastic model for intrinsic noise that assumes the population does not go extinct. It is shown that there is good agreement between the theory of these statistics and the simulation results. Furthermore, the ESS of the evolutionary game can be used to predict the mean steady state.     

Bayesian inference for stochastic kinetic models using a diffusion approximation

This article is concerned with the Bayesian estimation of stochastic rate constants in the context of dynamic models of intracellular processes. The underlying discrete stochastic kinetic model is replaced by a diffusion approximation (or stochastic differential equation approach) where a white noise term models stochastic behavior and the model is identified using equispaced time course data. The estimation framework involves the introduction of m- 1 latent data points between every pair of observations. MCMC methods are then used to sample the posterior distribution of the latent process and the model parameters. The methodology is applied to the estimation of parameters in a prokaryotic autoregulatory gene network.     

Role of gestation delay in a plankton-fish model under stochastic fluctuations

The present paper studies a minimal prey-predator model in the context of marine plankton interaction together with predation by planktivorous fish. The time lag required for gestation of the predator is incorporated and the resulting delayed model is analyzed for stability and bifurcation phenomena. A stochastic extension of the model is considered by perturbing the growth process of phytoplankton using colored noise process known to be more appropriate for the marine environment. The stochastic models with and without gestation delay are analyzed for stability aspects and a threshold value of gestation delay is obtained; this threshold is then compared with that of the deterministic model.     

Effects of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Noise Can Accelerate Juxtacrine Pattern Formation

Epithelial pattern formation is an important phenomenon that, for example, has roles in embryogenesis, development and wound-healing. The ligand Epithelial Growth Factor (EGF) and its receptor EGF-R, constitute a system that forms lateral induction patterns by juxtacrine signalling—binding of membrane-bound ligands to receptors on neighbouring cells. Owen et al. developed a generic ordinary differential equation model of juxtacrine lateral induction that exhibits stable patterning under some conditions. The model predicts relatively slow pattern formation. We examine here the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic cellular noise arising from the stochastic treatment of this model, and show that this noise could have an accelerating effect on the patterning process.     

Probabilistic polynomial dynamical systems for reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks

Elucidating the structure and/or dynamics of gene regulatory networks from experimental data is a major goal of systems biology. Stochastic models have the potential to absorb noise, account for un-certainty, and help avoid data overfitting. Within the frame work of probabilistic polynomial dynamical systems, we present an algorithm for the reverse engineering of any gene regulatory network as a discrete, probabilistic polynomial dynamical system. The resulting stochastic model is assembled from all minimal models in the model space and the probability assignment is based on partitioning the model space according to the likeliness with which a minimal model explains the observed data. We used this method to identify stochastic models for two published synthetic network models. In both cases, the generated model retains the key features of the original model and compares favorably to the resulting models from other algorithms.