Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.     

Recent trends and components of change in fertility in Nepal

The objectives of this article are, first, to provide improved estimates of recent fertility levels and trends in Nepal and, second, to analyse the components of fertility change. The analysis is based on data from Nepal's 1996 and 2001 Demographic and Health Surveys. Total fertility rates (TFR) are derived by the own-children method. They incorporate additional adjustments to compensate for displacement of births, and they are compared with estimates derived by the birth-history method. Fertility is estimated not only for the whole country but also by urban/rural residence and by woman's education. The own-children estimates for the whole country indicate that the TFR declined from 4.96 to 4.69 births per woman between the 3-year period preceding the 1996 survey and the 3-year period preceding the 2001 survey. About three-quarters of the decline stems from reductions in age-specific marital fertility rates and about one-quarter from changes in age-specific proportions currently married. Further decomposition of the decline in marital fertility, as measured by births per currently married woman during the 5-year period before each survey, indicates that almost half of the decline in marital fertility is accounted for by changes in population composition by ecological region, development region, urban/rural residence, education, age at first cohabitation with husband, time elapsed since first cohabitation, number of living children at the start of the 5-year period and media exposure. With these variables controlled, another one-third of the decline is accounted for by increase in the proportion sterilized at the start of the 5-year period before each survey.     

Premarital fertility in Namibia: trends, factors and consequences

Premarital fertility, defined as fertility before first marriage, was found to be highly prevalent in Namibia. According to data from the 1992 and 2000 DHS surveys, the proportion of premarital births was 43% for all births, and 60% for the first birth. This seemed to be primarily due to a late mean age at first marriage (26.4 years) and low levels of contraception before first marriage. Data were analysed using a variety of demographic methods, including multiple decrement life table and multivariate logistic models. Major variations were found by ethno-linguistic groups: Herero and Nama/Damara had the highest levels of premarital fertility (above 60%); Ovambo and Lozi had intermediate levels of premarital fertility (around 40%); Kavongo and San appeared to have kept a more traditional behaviour of early marriage and low levels of premarital fertility (around 20%). The largest ethno-linguistic group, the Ovambo, were in a special situation, with fast increasing age at marriage and average level of premarital fertility. Whites and mixed races also differed, with Afrikaans-speaking groups having a behaviour closer to the average, whereas other Europeans had less premarital fertility despite an average age at marriage. Ethnic differences remained stable after controlling for various socioeconomic factors, such as urbanization, level of education, wealth, access to mass media, and religion. Results are discussed in light of the population dynamics and political history of Namibia in the 20th century.     

Periodicity and time trends in the prevalence of total births and conceptions with congenital malformations among Jews and Muslims in Israel, 1999-2006: a time series study of 823,966 births

BACKGROUND Congenital malformations (CMs) are a leading cause of infant disability. Geophysical patterns such as 2-year, yearly, half-year, 3-month, and lunar cycles regulate much of the temporal biology of all life on Earth and may affect birth and birth outcomes in humans. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate and compare trends and periodicity in total births and CM conceptions in two Israeli populations. METHODS Poisson nonlinear models (polynomial) were applied to study and compare trends and geophysical periodicity cycles of weekly births and weekly prevalence rate of CM (CMPR), in a time-series design of conception date within and between Jews and Muslims. The population included all live births and stillbirths (n = 823,966) and CM (three anatomic systems, eight CM groups [n = 2193]) in Israel during 2000 to 2006. Data were obtained from the Ministry of Health. RESULTS We describe the trend and periodicity cycles for total birth conceptions. Of eight groups of CM, periodicity cycles were statistically significant in four CM groups for either Jews or Muslims. Lunar month and biennial periodicity cycles not previously investigated in the literature were found to be statistically significant. Biennial cycle was significant in total births (Jews and Muslims) and syndactyly (Muslims), whereas lunar month cycle was significant in total births (Muslims) and atresia of small intestine (Jews). CONCLUSION We encourage others to use the method we describe as an important tool to investigate the effects of different geophysical cycles on human health and pregnancy outcomes, especially CM, and to compare between populations.     

Reproductive change in Zimbabwe and Kenya: the role of the proximate determinants in recent fertility trends

This study examines trends in proximate determinants of fertility in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Findings from the four Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in these countries show that the dramatic fall in fertility in these countries is consistent with the underlying trends in the most important proximate determinants of fertility. In Zimbabwe, contraceptive use far exceeds other proximate determinants in influencing fertility levels and trends. The results show that the fertility inhibiting effects of contraception are more important than the effects of postpartum infecundability, marriage patterns, or sterility. The results also show that contraceptive use has its greatest suppressing effects in the middle and younger age groups. However, in Kenya, the dominant fertility inhibiting effect is postpartum infecundability, with contraception coming in second.     

Determinants of fertility in Nepal: applications of an aggregate model

Bongaarts aggregate model of the proximate determinants of fertility is applied to data from the 1976 National Fertility Survey in Nepal. Breastfeeding is shown to be the most important limiting factor, resulting in a reduction of about 6 children per woman. Decline in the duration of breastfeeding by 1/4 would increase fertility by 1 additional child per woman. The temporary separation of spouses due to migration is conjectured to be the 2nd most important fertility inhibiting factor, not explicitly accounted for in the standard model. Results are presented for the 3 major ecological regions, urban-rural residence and educational attainment of women. High nuptiality and virtually no contraceptive use in Nepal produce age-specific fertility rates very close to a natural fertility pattern. Total average interval between births is 36 months; about 18 months are solely due to breastfeeding, the remaining months to combined effects of gestation, waiting time to conception, intrauterine mortality and post-partum infecundability. As urbanization increases and pace of modernization becomes more pronounced, the duration of breastfeeding is susceptible to decline.     

New biopharmaceuticals in the USA: trends in development and marketing approvals 1995-1999

The Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development has collected data on the clinical and approval phases of the 26 new biopharmaceuticals approved by the US Food and Drug Administration between 1980 and 1999. Here, the data for biopharmaceuticals approved between 1995 and 1999 are presented grouped by product category, review status, orphan-drug designation and therapeutic indication, and the mean phase lengths are compared. They are also compared with the data for approvals during the periods 1982-1989, 1990-1994 and 1996-1998.     

Secular change in long bone length and proportion in the United States, 1800-1970.

We examine secular change in long bone lengths and allometry of Americans dating from the mid-19th century to the 1970s. Skeletal samples were derived from the Huntington Collection, Terry Collection, World War II casualties, and the Forensic Anthropology Data Bank. Regression of bone length on year of birth allowed evaluation of the secular change in bone length. Size was computed as the geometric mean of all bone lengths, and shape as the ratio of each bone to size. These variables were then regressed on year of birth, allowing evaluation of allometric secular change. The results revealed a pattern of change that can be summarized as follows: male secular change is stronger than female, lower limb bone secular change is more pronounced than upper limb bone change, and distal bones change more than proximal bones, particularly in the lower limb. In males, white changes are uniformly higher than black but these differences do not rise to the level of statistical significance. Environmental forces, such as nutrition and disease, are the usual causes of secular changes in overall size. This paper shows that long bone proportions also respond to these same environmental factors. Moreover, the changes in body proportion are likely to be due to allometric consequences of growth changes that occur early in life. Am J Phys Anthropol 110:57-67, 1999.     

The evolution of the family planning programme and its role in influencing fertility change in Kenya

Kenya was one of the first sub-Saharan countries to enter the fertility transition, and analysts have suggested various explanations for this. This paper examines the growth in contraceptive availability in Kenya by looking at the Kenya family planning programme and its association with the fertility transition. This is of critical programmatic importance because the fertility transition is not yet underway in many sub-Saharan countries. Policymakers will find the information from this study helpful in evaluating the efficacy of current programmes and replicating the Kenyan programme in areas where fertility decline has not yet occurred. For researchers, the study attempts to highlight some of the major factors driving Kenya's fertility decline, apart from the conventional arguments about social and economic development.     

Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods

Background

Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009.

Methods and Findings

We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th–95th centiles, 146–316 million) worldwide, 176 (110–248) million in the African region, and 49 (36–68) million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries.

Conclusions

Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts will increasingly rely on robust systems of routine surveillance. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

A time for every season: soil aggregate turnover stimulates decomposition and reduces carbon loss in grasslands managed for bioenergy

A primary goal of many next‐generation bioenergy systems is to increase ecosystem services such as soil carbon (C) storage and nutrient retention. Evaluating whether bioenergy management systems are achieving these goals is challenging in part because these processes occur over long periods of time at varying spatial scales. Investigation of microbially mediated soil processes at the microbe scale may provide early insights into the mechanisms driving these long‐term ecosystem services. Furthermore, seasonal fluctuations in microbial activity are rarely considered when estimating whole ecosystem functioning, but are central to decomposition, soil structure, and realized C storage. Some studies have characterized extracellular enzyme activity within soil structures (aggregates); however, seasonal variation in decomposition at the microscale remains virtually unknown, particularly in managed ecosystems. As such, we hypothesize that temporal variation in aggregate turnover is a strong regulator of microbial activity, with important implications for decomposition and C and nitrogen (N) storage in bioenergy systems. We address variation in soil microbial extracellular enzyme activity spatially across soil aggregates and temporally across two growing seasons in three ecosystems managed for bioenergy feedstock production: Zea mays L. (corn) agroecosystem, fertilized and unfertilized reconstructed tallgrass prairie. We measured potential N‐acetyl‐glucosaminidase (NAG), β‐glucosidase (BG), β‐xylosidase (BX), and cellobiohydrolase (CB) enzyme activity. Aggregate turnover in prairie systems was driven by precipitation events and seasonal spikes in enzyme activity corresponded with aggregate turnover events. In corn monocultures, soil aggregates turned over early in the growing season, followed by increasing, albeit low, enzyme activity throughout the growing season. Independent of management system or sampling date, NAG activity was greatest in large macroaggregates (>2000 μm) and CB activity was greatest in microaggregates (<250 μm). High microbial activity coupled with greater aggregation in prairie bioenergy systems may reduce loss of soil organic matter through decomposition and increase soil C storage.     

Continuing fertility transitions in a plural society: ethnic trends and differentials in Peninsular Malaysia

Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia has declined continuously from the late 1950s, reaching a total fertility rate of 3735 in 1983. All ethnic groups in Malaysia have contributed to this modern demographic transition but the rate of change has been most rapid for Chinese and Indians, Malay fertility having reached a plateau in the early 1980s. The effect of age structure, marital patterns and marital fertility (by parity) on the fertility declines for each ethnic community are analyzed. There has been a tendency, in each ethnic group, for the age distribution within the group of reproductive-age women to grow younger, reflecting the entry into the younger reproductive ages of the large birth cohorts of the 1950s and early 1960s. The effect of this on crude birth rates is hard to determine, because rising age at marriage and increasing use of contraception meant that fertility was increasingly concentrated in the more central reproductive ages. By the 1990s, the earlier declines in fertility will bring about a decline in the proportion of the total population made up of females in the main reproductive ages. After that point, further declines in fertility will be reflected in a sharper decline in the crude birth rate and hence the rate of population increase. Between 1947 and 1980, the age at marriage changed dramatically for females of all ethnic groups. The transition to higher age at marriage for Chinese was completed earlier, and since 1970 has risen by only a year. For Malays and Indians, the rise began later, proceeded faster and continued right up to 1980 when the medium ages at 1st marriage were Malays 22, Indians 23, Chinese 24 years. In 1980, Malay women on average were marrying 5 years later, and Indian women 6 years later than had their mothers' generation in 1947. The proportion never-married among Malay and Indian women aged 20-24 rose from 1/10 to 1/2 over this period; relatively greater changes are evident at ages 25-29. Other factors are the almost complete shift from parent-arranged to self-arranged marriages. Family size desired has decreased for all groups and the decline in breastfeeding has been offset by the sharp increase in the practice of contraception. Continuation of these trends would lead to replacement-level fertility for Malaysian Chinese and Indians by the year 2000. Malay fertility is likely to continue to decline but at a more moderate pace.     

Recruitment,retention, and time commitment change of general practitioners in England and Wales, 1990-4: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the recruitment and retention of general practitioners and changes in their time commitment from 1 October 1990 to 1 October 1994. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of yearly data. SETTING: England and Wales. SUBJECTS: General practitioners in unrestricted practice. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of general practitioners moving into and out of general practice; proportion of general practitioners practising less than full time; proportion of general practitioners having unchanged time commitment over the study period; and proportion of general practitioners leaving general practice in 1991 who were subsequently practising in 1994. RESULTS: Numbers of general practitioners entering general practice (1565 in 1990, 1400 in 1994) fell over the study period as did the numbers leaving general practice (1488 in 1990, 1115 in 1994). The net effect was an increase in both the total and full time equivalent general practitioners practising from 1 October 1990 (26,757 full time equivalents) to 1 October 1994 (27,063 full time equivalents). Numbers of general practitioners practising full time were decreasing whereas part time practice was increasing; women were more likely to practise part time. 35.5% (43/121) of women practising full time and 17.8% (24/135) of men practising full time who left practice in 1991 were practising again in 1994. CONCLUSION: Simply using total numbers of general practitioners or net increase to describe workforce trends masks much movement in and out of general practice and between differing time commitments. Recruitment and retention issues need to be separated if reasonable policies are to be developed to assure the necessary general practitioner workforce for a primary care led NHS.     

Asymmetric disposal of individual protein aggregates in Escherichia coli, one aggregate at a time

Escherichia coli cells employ an asymmetric strategy at division, segregating unwanted substances to older poles, which has been associated with aging in these organisms. The kinetics of this process is still poorly understood. Using the MS2 coat protein fused to green fluorescent protein (GFP) and a reporter construct with multiple MS2 binding sites, we tracked individual RNA-MS2-GFP complexes in E. coli cells from the time when they were produced. Analyses of the kinetics and brightness of the spots showed that these spots appear in the midcell region, are composed of a single RNA-MS2-GFP complex, and reach a pole before another target RNA is formed, typically remaining there thereafter. The choice of pole is probabilistic and heavily biased toward one pole, similar to what was observed by previous studies regarding protein aggregates. Additionally, this mechanism was found to act independently on each disposed molecule. Finally, while the RNA-MS2-GFP complexes were disposed of, the MS2-GFP tagging molecules alone were not. We conclude that this asymmetric mechanism to segregate damage at the expense of aging individuals acts probabilistically on individual molecules and is capable of the accurate classification of molecules for disposal.