Evaluating the protection of wildlife in parks: the case of African buffalo in Serengeti

Human population growth rates on the borders of protected areas in Africa are nearly double the average rural growth, suggesting that protected areas attract human settlement. Increasing human populations could be a threat to biodiversity through increases in illegal hunting. In the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania, there have been marked declines in black rhino (Diceros bicornis), elephant (Loxodonta africana) and African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) inside the protected area during a period when there was a reduction of protection through anti-poaching effort (1976–1996). Subsequently, protection effort has increased and has remained stable. During both periods there were major differences in population decline and recovery in different areas. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the possible causes of the spatial differences. We used a spatially structured population model to analyze the impacts of three factors—(i) hunting, (ii) food shortage and (iii) natural predation. Population changes were best explained by illegal hunting but model fit improved with the addition of predation mortality and the effect of food supply in areas where hunting was least. We used a GIS analysis to determine variation in human settlement rates and related those rates to intrinsic population changes in buffalo. Buffalo populations in close proximity to areas with higher rates of human settlement had low or negative rates of increase and were slowest to recover or failed to recover at all. The increase in human populations along the western boundary of the Serengeti ecosystem has led to negative consequences for wildlife populations, pointing to the need for enforcement of wildlife laws to mitigate these effects.     

On Population Growth Near Protected Areas

Background

Protected areas are the first, and often only, line of defense in efforts to conserve biodiversity. They might be detrimental or beneficial to rural communities depending on how they alter economic opportunities and access to natural resources. As such, protected areas may attract or repel human settlement. Disproportionate increases in population growth near protected area boundaries may threaten their ability to conserve biodiversity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using decadal population datasets, we analyze population growth across 45 countries and 304 protected areas. We find no evidence for population growth near protected areas to be greater than growth of rural areas in the same country. Furthermore, we argue that what growth does occur near protected areas likely results from a general expansion of nearby population centers.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results contradict those from a recent study by Wittemyer et al., who claim overwhelming evidence for increased human population growth near protected areas. To understand the disagreement, we re-analyzed the protected areas in Wittemyer et al.''s paper. Their results are simply artifacts of mixing two incompatible datasets. Protected areas may experience unusual population pressures near their edges; indeed, individual case studies provide examples. There is no evidence, however, of a general pattern of disproportionate population growth near protected areas.     

基于GIS的秦岭山区聚落用地适宜性评价

利用自然地理、生态和社会经济方面共14个因子构建秦岭山区聚落建设用地适宜性评价指标体系,采用AHP法确定各评价因子的权重,在地理信息系统(GIS)和遥感(RS)技术支持下,利用适宜性评价模型定量评价聚落建设用地适宜性,将聚落建设用地适宜性分为五个等级,并结合已建设区进行空缺分析。结果表明:(1)秦岭山区最适宜聚落用地面积为3378.1 km2,占研究区总面积的5.87%,说明秦岭山区适宜聚落开发的土地相对较少。(2)最适宜聚落用地集中在秦岭北、南坡山麓和东部的山间河谷地带,山地型特征明显。(3)有9.15%已建成区分布在限制建设区内,存在生态安全风险。(4)可用适宜聚落建设用地为3192.27 km2,空间分布不平衡。研究结果可为该区域城镇体系布局与用地规模的核算提供科学依据。     

Characteristics of Settling Coral Reef Fish Are Related to Recruitment Timing and Success

Many marine populations exhibit high variability in the recruitment of young into the population. While environmental cycles and oceanography explain some patterns of replenishment, the role of other growth-related processes in influencing settlement and recruitment is less clear. Examination of a 65-mo. time series of recruitment of a common coral reef fish, Stegastes partitus, to the reefs of the upper Florida Keys revealed that during peak recruitment months, settlement stage larvae arriving during dark lunar phases grew faster as larvae and were larger at settlement compared to those settling during the light lunar phases. However, the strength and direction of early trait-mediated selective mortality also varied by settlement lunar phase such that the early life history traits of 2–4 week old recruit survivors that settled across the lunar cycle converged to more similar values. Similarly, within peak settlement periods, early life history traits of settling larvae and selective mortality of recruits varied by the magnitude of the settlement event: larvae settling in larger events had longer PLDs and consequently were larger at settlement than those settling in smaller pulses. Traits also varied by recruitment habitat: recruits surviving in live coral habitat (vs rubble) or areas with higher densities of adult conspecifics were those that were larger at settlement. Reef habitats, especially those with high densities of territorial conspecifics, are more challenging habitats for young fish to occupy and small settlers (due to lower larval growth and/or shorter PLDs) to these habitats have a lower chance of survival than they do in rubble habitats. Settling reef fish are not all equal and the time and location of settlement influences the likelihood that individuals will survive to contribute to the population.     

城市住区形态时空模拟——以厦门岛为例

住区形态变迁受到人口迁移、住区满意度和低碳城市发展政策等因素的限制,常用的土地利用模型难以有效表征这一相互制约关系,使得这方面的研究仍然相对不足。通过耦合SD模型和CLUE-S模型,充分发挥了2个模型在宏观情景模拟和微观土地分配上的优势,模拟了住区、人口、住区碳足迹等制约因素的相互关系,为住区形态变迁时空模拟提供了一种有效的方法。以厦门岛为例,根据研究区历史统计数据、问卷调查数据构建了住区形态变迁SD模型,模拟了基准情景、紧凑情景和低碳情景3种不同发展情景下各类住区类型的用地需求,结合CLUE-S模型预测了3种情景下2009年—2020年各类住区类型的用地范围。结果表明,基准年住区类型Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ三者占地面积比例为1∶1.18∶0.83,基准情景下2018年住区类型Ⅲ将成为主要的住区类型。低碳发展和紧凑发展是惯性发展的两种极端情况,体现在总住区面积、人均住宅面积和人均碳足迹大小的变化,但是对厦门岛总人口数量的影响并不大。根据目前厦门的发展趋势,低碳发展情景与紧凑发展情景相结合可能更靠近现实。在空间分布上,住区类型Ⅰ未来不再新建;住区类型Ⅱ遵循现状继续发展的惯性较大;住区类型Ⅲ分布在征地成本相对较低的区域。模型模拟结果能够为住区用地规划、住区发展对策建议提供有效的技术支撑。     

Environmental stochasticity in dispersal areas can explain the "mysterious" disappearance of breeding populations

We present the results of an individual-based simulation model, showing that increasing the mortality of non-breeding dispersers within settlement areas can lead to the extinction of species and (meta)populations in a subtle way. This is because the areas where dispersers settle are generally unknown or difficult to detect. Consequently, fewer efforts are devoted to the conservation of these sites than to the conservation of breeding territories. Additionally, high mortality rates affecting the floater sector of a population become evident in the breeding sector only after several of years, when it is too difficult or too late to halt the decline. As a result, because most conservation projects on endangered species and populations mainly focus on breeding areas, many current efforts may be wasted in locations other than those in which conservation would be really necessary and effective.     

Bees, farmers, tourists and hunters: conflict dynamics around Western Tanzania protected areas

Following important donor funding in Tanzania since the 1990s to support community based natural resource management, several cooperation agencies have implemented projects aiming at developing innovative conservation strategies combining protected and sustainable use areas. Based on data gathered in the Katavi Rukwa Lukwati and Ugalla core areas of Western Tanzania, this paper compares and analyses how projects developed their strategy and objectives to address conflicts between local population and conservation agents, and how this led to changes in conservation practices. The projects managed to achieve their objectives in conservation and poverty reduction at various degrees. Enhanced conflict resolution capacity involving private stakeholders, conservation agents and local communities, as well as improved collaboration between projects, helped to solve part of the conflicts. This was the case with the negotiation of rights of access for beekeepers to Rukwa game reserve. However, enduring sector based approaches continue to hinder opportunities for developing multiple use approaches. Contrasted results of the projects can be explained by factors inherent to projects’ planning and management, but also by factors that are beyond projects’ influence such as the historical and contemporary context in terms of governance of natural resources and more globally, of power relationships between the state, private organisations and the communities.     

Effects of environmental change on emerging parasitic diseases

Ecological disturbances exert an influence on the emergence and proliferation of malaria and zoonotic parasitic diseases, including, Leishmaniasis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, trypanosomiasis, schistosomiasis, filariasis, onchocerciasis, and loiasis. Each environmental change, whether occurring as a natural phenomenon or through human intervention, changes the ecological balance and context within which disease hosts or vectors and parasites breed, develop, and transmit disease. Each species occupies a particular ecological niche and vector species sub-populations are distinct behaviourally and genetically as they adapt to man-made environments. Most zoonotic parasites display three distinct life cycles: sylvatic, zoonotic, and anthroponotic. In adapting to changed environmental conditions, including reduced non-human population and increased human population, some vectors display conversion from a primarily zoophyllic to primarily anthrophyllic orientation. Deforestation and ensuing changes in landuse, human settlement, commercial development, road construction, water control systems (dams, canals, irrigation systems, reservoirs), and climate, singly, and in combination have been accompanied by global increases in morbidity and mortality from emergent parasitic disease. The replacement of forests with crop farming, ranching, and raising small animals can create supportive habitats for parasites and their host vectors. When the land use of deforested areas changes, the pattern of human settlement is altered and habitat fragmentation may provide opportunities for exchange and transmission of parasites to the heretofore uninfected humans. Construction of water control projects can lead to shifts in such vector populations as snails and mosquitoes and their parasites. Construction of roads in previously inaccessible forested areas can lead to erosion, and stagnant ponds by blocking the flow of streams when the water rises during the rainy season. The combined effects of environmentally detrimental changes in local land use and alterations in global climate disrupt the natural ecosystem and can increase the risk of transmission of parasitic diseases to the human population.     

Role of habitat in mediating mortality during the post-settlement transition phase of temperate marine fishes

The transition phase describes a distinct post-settlement stage associated with the recruitment to benthic habitats by pelagic life stages. The habitat shift is often accompanied by feeding shifts and metamorphosis from larval to juvenile phases. Density-dependent settlement, growth and mortality are often the major factors controlling recruitment success of this phase. Habitat use also becomes more pronounced after settlement. The role of habitat-mediated post-settlement mortality is elucidated by focusing on the early life history of Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) and cunner ( Tautogolabrus adspersus ) in the north-west Atlantic. In these species, settlement can occur over all bottom types, but habitat-specific differences in post-settlement mortality rates combined with size and priority at settlement effects on growth and survival determine recruitment and eventual year-class strength. These results and those from other temperate marine fish species along with work on tropical reef species emphasize the generality of habitat-based density-dependent mortality during the transition phase and its potential for population regulation. These results have implications for fisheries management and can be used to outline a procedure to assist managers in identifying and managing essential transitional habitats including the potential role of marine protected areas in habitat conservation.     

Floater survival affects population persistence. The role of prey availability and environmental stochasticity

We develop two individual-based models using a large and detailed data set (information gathered over more than a century) on a population of a longlived and territorial predator, the Spanish imperial eagle. We investigated the relationship between survival and predator pressure, prey behaviour and patch availability (i.e. settlement areas). Survival of dispersing individuals was highly dependent on the number of available settlement areas, mediated by prey availability. Changes in prey behaviour due to predation pressure (e.g. shifting from diurnal to nocturnal activity) can decrease their availability for predators even if the density significantly exceeds the predator needs. Environmental stochasticity had a strong influence on population viability when it occurred in a synchroneous way between breeding and settlement areas, and an increase in floater mortality negatively influenced stability and dynamics of the breeding segment of populations in reproductive areas. Our simulations demonstrated the link between the dynamics in settlement and breeding areas: factors affecting floater survival also influence whole population dynamics. Moreover, model outputs provided insights into the relationship between environmental stochasticity and population dynamics.     

The relationships between net primary productivity, human population density and species conservation

Aim In this study, I determine the relationships between net primary productivity (NPP), human population density, species richness and land use. I also examine the implications of human settlement patterns for species conservation. Location Australia. Methods I document the associations between NPP, human population density and the species richness of birds, butterflies and mammals using correlations and spatial regressions. I also assess changes in land‐use with NPP and population density, focussing particularly on protected areas. An initial exploration into the implications of the NPP‐population density relationship for regional conservation strategies is provided. Results Human population density increases with NPP suggesting that available energy may be a key driving force of human settlement patterns. The species richness of each taxonomic group and geographically restricted species also increases with NPP leading to substantial overlap between species diversity and populated regions. The percentage of land designated as minimal use decreases considerably with increasing human population density and NPP, while intensive agriculture is confined entirely to areas of high NPP. There are strong negative relationships between the size of Australia's National Parks and human population density and NPP. Small parks are often surrounded by relatively dense settlements, but have high average NPP, while large parks are mostly isolated and characterized by low productivity. There are no areas in the highest quartile of NPP that also occur in the most sparsely populated regions, presenting challenges for conservation strategies wanting to protect productive areas under the least threat of human development. Main conclusions Human population density and species richness respond similarly to variation in NPP, leading to spatial congruence between human settlements and productive, species rich regions. Planning strategies are required that minimize the potential threat posed by human development to diverse ecosystems and maximize the underlying productivity of protected areas. Reducing the level of threat may require stabilizing the size of the human population, while capturing larger areas of relatively high productivity in the conservation reserve system would lead to greater protection of local diversity.     

Tsunami impact on the population development of a critically endangered hummingbird species of a Pacific island

It is a long-standing question how tsunamis can influence wild populations of animals and plants. Here, we assessed short-term changes in the population of the critically endangered Juan Fernández Firecrown (Sephanoides fernandensis) by using abundance data recorded 1 year before and 1 year after the 2010 Chilean tsunami. We tested that the abundance of Firecrowns declined in the areas where the tsunami caused the massive loss of Cabbage Trees, an important seasonal nectar source for Firecrowns. The abundance of Juan Fernández Firecrowns decreased after the tsunami, but also was affected by the habitat type, altitude, and the abundance of Cabbage Trees. Firecrowns tended to be more abundant in settlement areas than in native forest whereas the reduction in Firecrown abundance after the tsunami was more intense in settlement areas than in native forest. As expected, this habitat effect was dependent on the massive loss of Cabbage Trees in settlement areas following the tsunami. In spite of the short-term nature of our data, our results are conclusive in showing that the loss of an important food source causes short-term changes in the distribution and abundance of Firecrowns, which, in turn, could contribute to population decline.     

Estimating the impact of oyster restoration scenarios on transient fish production

Oyster reef restoration projects are increasing in number both to enhance oyster density and to retain valuable ecosystem services provided by oyster reefs. Although some oyster restoration projects have demonstrated success by increasing density and biomass of transient fish, it still remains a challenge to quantify the effects of oyster restoration on transient fish communities. We developed a bioenergetics model to assess the impact of selected oyster reef restoration scenarios on associated transient fish species. We used the model to analyze the impact of changes in (1) oyster population carrying capacity; (2) oyster population growth rate; and (3) diet preference of transient fish on oyster reef development and associated transient fish species. Our model results indicate that resident fish biomass is directly affected by oyster restoration and oyster biomass, and oyster restoration can have cascading impacts on transient fish biomass. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of a favorable oyster population growth rate during early restoration years, as it can lead to rapid increases in mean oyster biomass and biomass of transient fish species. The model also revealed that a transient fish's diet solely dependent on oyster reef‐derived prey could limit the biomass of transient fish species, emphasizing the importance of habitat connectivity in estuarine areas to enhance transient fish species biomass. Simple bioenergetics models can be developed to understand the dynamics of a system and make qualitative predictions of management and restoration scenarios.     

Population distribution, settlement patterns and accessibility across Africa in 2010

The spatial distribution of populations and settlements across a country and their interconnectivity and accessibility from urban areas are important for delivering healthcare, distributing resources and economic development. However, existing spatially explicit population data across Africa are generally based on outdated, low resolution input demographic data, and provide insufficient detail to quantify rural settlement patterns and, thus, accurately measure population concentration and accessibility. Here we outline approaches to developing a new high resolution population distribution dataset for Africa and analyse rural accessibility to population centers. Contemporary population count data were combined with detailed satellite-derived settlement extents to map population distributions across Africa at a finer spatial resolution than ever before. Substantial heterogeneity in settlement patterns, population concentration and spatial accessibility to major population centres is exhibited across the continent. In Africa, 90% of the population is concentrated in less than 21% of the land surface and the average per-person travel time to settlements of more than 50,000 inhabitants is around 3.5 hours, with Central and East Africa displaying the longest average travel times. The analyses highlight large inequities in access, the isolation of many rural populations and the challenges that exist between countries and regions in providing access to services. The datasets presented are freely available as part of the AfriPop project, providing an evidence base for guiding strategic decisions.     

Does acoustically simulated predation risk affect settlement and reproduction of a migratory passerine?

Nest predation is one of the most important drivers of avian life history evolution and population dynamics. Increasing evidence suggests that birds are able to assess nest predation risk and avoid settling in high‐risk areas to increase their reproductive performance. However, the cues used for settlement decisions are poorly known in most species. Population sizes of the migratory wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix are characterized by strong annual fluctuations, which are negatively correlated with the number of forest rodents. Wood warblers might avoid rodent‐rich areas to reduce predation risk arising either from rodents, from rodent‐hunting predators attracted to such areas or from predators not linked to rodents. To evaluate these hypotheses, we conducted a large‐scale field experiment to test whether wood warblers avoided settling in plots with high predation risk simulated by broadcasting vocalizations of rodents or predators. Moreover, we tested whether reproductive performance varied in relation to simulated predation risk. Settlement patterns did not differ between plots with rodent, predator and noise control treatments. Likewise, measures of reproductive performance did not seem to differ across treatments. Thus, the broadcasted vocalizations of rodents and predators did not seem to be perceived as threat by wood warblers. Alternatively, the species might use other cues than those presented here, either other acoustic cues, visual and/or olfactory cues or a combination of cue types during settlement. Further experimental investigations to pin point cues and senses relevant for settlement decisions in wood warblers and birds in general are needed to better understand their life history and population dynamics.     

Characteristics and behaviour of brushtail possums initially moving into a depopulated area

Brushtail possums are controlled extensively in New Zealand because they are a livestock disease vector and have an impact on native biodiversity. Reinvasion of controlled areas and subsequent population recovery is a significant management problem but little attention has been paid to what influences the settlement of possums in depopulated areas. To address this gap we trapped possums out of an area of about 24?ha in native podocarp–hardwood forest and studied reinvasion and settlement in the central c. 14?ha over 22 months. Most new possums were young males, but adults were also trapped. Many of the new possums caught on the study site post-depopulation did not settle there, most likely because they continued to disperse, but some may have returned to their ranges nearby or were residents with a very low probability of capture. This finding highlights the need for better information about the origins and settlement of possums in depopulated areas to improve management of population recovery and long-term sustained control of possums.     

Livestock Settlement Dynamics in Drylands: Model application in the Monte desert (Mendoza,Argentina)

Human settlements in arid environments are becoming widespread due to population growth, and without planning, they may alter vegetation and ecosystem processes, compromising sustainability. We hypothesize that in an arid region of the central Monte desert (Mendoza, Argentina), surface and groundwater availability are the primary factors controlling livestock settlements establishment and success as productive units, which affect patterns of degradation in the landscape. To evaluate this hypothesis we simulated settlement dynamics using a Monte Carlo based model of Settlement Dynamics in Drylands (SeDD), which calculates probabilities on a gridded region based on six environmental factors: groundwater depth, vegetation type, proximity to rivers, paved road, old river beds, and existing settlements. A parameter sweep, including millions of simulations, was run to identify the most relevant factors controlling settlements. Results indicate that distances to rivers and the presence of old river beds are critical to explain the current distribution of settlements, while vegetation, paved roads, and water table depth were not as relevant to explain settlement distribution. Far from surface water sources, most settlements were established at random, suggesting that pressures to settle in unfavorable places control settlement dynamics in those isolated areas. The simulated vegetation, which considers degradation around livestock settlements, generally matched the spatial distribution of remotely sensed vegetation classes, although with a higher cover of extreme vegetation classes. The model could be a useful tool to evaluate effects of land use changes, such as water provision or changes on river flows, on settlement distribution and vegetation degradation in arid environments.     

Planning for Implementation: Landscape‐Level Restoration Planning in an Agricultural Setting

The conservation of biodiversity in highly fragmented landscapes often requires large‐scale habitat restoration in addition to traditional biological conservation techniques. The selection of priority restoration sites to support long‐term persistence of biodiversity within landscape‐scale projects however remains a challenge for many restoration practitioners. Techniques developed under the paradigm of systematic conservation planning may provide a template for resolving these challenges. Systematic conservation planning requires the identification of conservation objectives, the establishment of quantitative targets for each objective, and the identification of areas which, if conserved, would contribute to meeting those targets. A metric developed by systematic conservation planners termed “irreplaceability” allows for analysis and prioritization of such conservation options, and allows for the display of analysis results in a way that can engage private landowners and other decision makers. The process of systematic conservation planning was modified to address landscape‐level restoration prioritization in southern Ontario. A series of recent and locally relevant landscape ecology studies allowed the identification of restoration objectives and quantitative targets, and a simple algorithm was developed to identify and prioritize potential restoration projects. The application of an irreplaceability analysis to landscape‐level restoration planning allowed the identification of varying needs throughout the planning region, resulting from underlying differences in topography and settlement patterns, and allowed the effective prioritization of potential restoration projects. Engagement with rural landowners and agricultural commodity groups, as well as the irreplaceability maps developed, ultimately resulted in a substantial increase in the number and total area of habitat restoration projects in the planning region.     

An experimental approach to the study of factors affecting algal colonization in a sublittoral kelp forest

Factors influencing the early colonization by benthic macroalgae and the early successional sequence in a subtidal Ecklonia radiata (C. Agardh) J. Agardh forest in Port Jackson (Sydney) were investigated using controlled experiments involving the microscopic sampling of settlement plates. The preliminary results indicate that the Tolerance model of succession may be applicable. The effect of grazers, and competition between different algal types were important and could, later in the succession, lead to the operation of the mechanisms suggested by the Facilitation or Inhibition models. Controls for the use of settlement plates showed that thick settlement plates led to an over-estimation of initial algal growth compared with the growth on natural patches of substratum. Other results suggested that thick plates excluded grazers. Borders of plates were investigated, but the establishment of algae was random over the plates′ surfaces and border effects were the result of physical or biotic factors acting on algae after settlement. An experiment was developed for use in subtidal areas to test for artifacts due to cages. It was found that the presence of the cages influences the community by attracting small snails. Fish were excluded from some areas to monitor their effects on initial algal growth. Exclusion of fish was found to cause a reduction in algal growth as well as increases in numbers of small invertebrates such as amphipods and copepods. The results suggested that the amount of algae initially present was affected by invertebrate grazers, the abundances of which were, in turn, affected by predation. The species diversity of the early algal growth did not show any consistent trends between high and low grazing pressure. Grazing was important in determining the temporal variability of early growth of individual species. Siltation was positively correlated with early algal growth; a mechanism to account for this effect is suggested. The application of the methods used in this study to future experimental studies of sublittoral community dynamics is considered.     

High resolution population maps for low income nations: combining land cover and census in East Africa

Background

Between 2005 and 2050, the human population is forecast to grow by 2.7 billion, with the vast majority of this growth occurring in low income countries. This growth is likely to have significant social, economic and environmental impacts, and make the achievement of international development goals more difficult. The measurement, monitoring and potential mitigation of these impacts require high resolution, contemporary data on human population distributions. In low income countries, however, where the changes will be concentrated, the least information on the distribution of population exists. In this paper we investigate whether satellite imagery in combination with land cover information and census data can be used to create inexpensive, high resolution and easily-updatable settlement and population distribution maps over large areas.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We examine various approaches for the production of maps of the East African region (Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania) and where fine resolution census data exists, test the accuracies of map production approaches and existing population distribution products. The results show that combining high resolution census, settlement and land cover information is important in producing accurate population distribution maps.

Conclusions

We find that this semi-automated population distribution mapping at unprecedented spatial resolution produces more accurate results than existing products and can be undertaken for as little as $0.01 per km². The resulting population maps are a product of the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP: http://www.map.ox.ac.uk) and are freely available.