Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity

Projected changes in surface climate are reviewed at a range of temporal scales, with an emphasis on tropical northern Africa--a region considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Noting the key aspects of 'weather' affecting crop yield, we then consider relevant and projected change using output from a range of state of the art global climate models (GCMs), and for different future emission scenarios. The outputs from the models reveal significant inter-model variation in the change expected by the end of the twenty-first century for even the lowest IPCC emission scenario. We provide a set of recommendations on future model diagnostics, configurations and ease of use to close further the gap between GCMs and smaller-scale crop models. This has the potential to empower countries to make their own assessments of vulnerability to climate change induced periods of food scarcity.     

Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean

Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice‐obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice‐intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species‐specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice‐obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea‐ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice‐obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice‐intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models.     

Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction

Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine the causes. Investigation of cod Gadus morhua populations across the whole North Atlantic Ocean has shown large-scale patterns of change in productivity due to lower individual growth and condition, caused by large-scale climate forcing. If a population is being heavily exploited then a drop in productivity can push it into decline unless the level of fishing is reduced: the idea of a stable carrying capacity is a dangerous myth. Overexploitation can be avoided by keeping fishing mortality low and by monitoring and responding rapidly to changes in productivity. There are signs that this lesson has been learned and that G. morhua will continue to be a mainstay of the human diet.     

气候变化对藏北地区草地生产力的影响模拟

利用政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式系统PRECIS与草地生态模型SPUR相联接,模拟评估未来2071—2100年藏北地区草地生产力的变化。结果表明:2种温室气体排放情景下,温度升高、太阳总辐射降低和降水量增加的区域,各类型草地地上生物量基本呈增加的趋势;降水量减少的区域,高嵩草型草地地上生物量呈减少的趋势;藏北地区的草地生产力不大可能从CO2富集上得到多大好处。     

Pacific Ocean climate change: atmospheric forcing, ocean circulation and ecosystem response

A major climate change event that affected atmospheric forcing, ocean circulation and ecosystem structure of the Pacific Ocean began in the mid-1970s. Changes in biomass, and presumably productivity, of the lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and Zooplankton) were directly attributed to this event. It also appears that some individual species at higher trophic levels were influenced, but cause-and-effect relationships are more difficult to document at the species level. Recent work shows that at least five major pelagic ecosystems responded to this event, but in different ways, and both increases and decreases in biomass were seen. Changes of this magnitude are well documented in the paleo-oceanographic record. However, it remains to be determined to what extent the changes were caused by natural cycles versus anthropogenic change (global warming).     

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO₂ rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.     

Ocean climate and seal condition

Background  

The condition of many marine mammals varies with fluctuations in productivity and food supply in the ocean basin where they forage. Prey is impacted by physical environmental variables such as cyclic warming trends. The weaning weight of northern elephant seal pups, Mirounga angustirostris, being closely linked to maternal condition, indirectly reflects prey availability and foraging success of pregnant females in deep waters of the northeastern Pacific. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of ocean climate on foraging success in this deep-diving marine mammal over the course of three decades, using cohort weaning weight as the principal metric of successful resource accrual.     

Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability

The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in different regional food webs, there is the potential to make predictions about future change scenarios.     

气候变化情景下中国自然植被净初级生产力分布

基于国际上较通用的Lund-Potsdam-Jena(LPJ)模型,根据中国自然环境特点对其运行机制进行调整,并重新进行了参数化,以B2情景气候数据作为主要的输入数据,以1961-1990年为基准时段,模拟了中国1991-2080自然植被净初级生产力(NPP)对气候变化的响应.结果表明:1961-1990年,中国自然植被的NPP总量为3.06 Pg C·a-1;1961-2080年,NPP总量呈波动下降趋势,且下降速度逐渐加快.在降水相对变化不大的条件下,平均温度的增加对我国植被生产力可能会产生一定的负面影响.NPP的空间分布从东南沿海向西北内陆呈逐渐递减趋势,在气候变化过程中,该格局基本没有太大变化.在东部NPP值相对较高地区,NPP值以减少为主,东北地区、华北东部和黄土高原地区的减少趋势尤为明显;在西部NPP值相对较低地区,NPP以增加趋势为主,青藏高原地区和塔里木盆地的表现尤为突出.随着气候变化的深入,东西部地区这种变化趋势的对比将越发明显.     

北亚热带马尾松净生产力对气候变化的响应

掌握马尾松生产力与气候变化的关系,特别是在马尾松自然分布的北界研究生产力对气候变化的响应具有重要意义,以马尾松自然分布北界的河南鸡公山国家级自然保护区内的老龄马尾松林作为研究对象,根据河南信阳的马尾松生物量与树高胸径的关系,利用样地调查和年轮宽度推算出过去的30a中的生物量和生产力动态,并用当地的温度、湿度、降水、光照以及帕尔默干旱度指数5项气候因子与生产力做相关分析,在此基础上用多元逐步回归得到了气候因子与生产力的回归方程。结果显示:鸡公山马尾松林生物量从1980年的59.00 t/hm²逐步增加到2009年的254.75 t/hm²,30a中平均年净生产力为6.64 t/hm²;气候分析表明年净生产力与气候因子关系较为密切:上年8月降水、当年2月温度、3月湿度以及10月的光照和温度与生产力正相关,当年5月光照、10月的降水和湿度与生产力负相关,当年2月到9月的PDSI都与生产力正相关,并且在6月的相关系数最高。研究表明,北亚热带的马尾松生产力的年际变化主要是气候因素引起的,受当年生长季的长短和生长季的土壤水分可用性限制,在未来该地区升温增湿的条件下马尾松林的生产力可能会升高。     

东北森林净第一性生产力与碳收支对气候变化的响应

以东北地区(38.43'N～53.34'N,115.37'E～135.5'E)为研究对象,利用当前气候状况和不同气候情景下的气象数据驱动基于个体生长过程的中国森林生态系统碳收支模型FORCCHN,模拟了气候变化对东北森林生态系统净第一性生产力(NPP)和碳收支(NEP)的影响.结果表明:1981～2002年期间,东北森林NPP总量位于0.27～0.40 pgc·a-1之间,平均值为0.34 pgc·a-1;土壤呼吸总量在0.11～0.27 PgC·a-1,平均为0.19 PgC·a-1;NEP总量位于0.11～0.18 PgC·a-1之间,且近20多年来该区森林起着CO2汇的作用,平均每年吸收0.15 Pg C的CO2;该区森林NPP和NEP对温度升高比对降雨变化的反应更为敏感;综合降雨增加(20%)和气温增加(3℃)的情况,该区各点森林的NPP和NEP增加的幅度最大;温度不变、降水增加(不变)情景下最小.     

全球气候变化与红树林

因为红树林位于海洋与陆地之间,其可能是首先被全球气候变化影响的生态系统。红树林的分布会随着温度气温的升高而增加。全球气候变化对红树林最重要的影响是海平面的变化。随着CO2的增多,大部分的红树林有高的光合作用率、水的利用效率以及生长率。在相对低的光照条件下,红树林的光合作用率相对较高。最后提出了今后尚待加强的一些研究领域。