植物对气候变化生理生态响应的不确定性分析

生态系统对全球气候变化的响应模式有利于人类预测与适应未来生态环境变化,植物作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分,对全球气候变化的响应具有重要作用.本文通过对近年来植物对气候变化的生理生态响应研究中(包括定点控制实验,空间代替时间样带),植物响应模式的复杂性、多样性及可变性等诸多不确定性进行分析.以探讨预测未来气候情景下植物的动态变化及生理生态响应过程.分析结果认为.造成这些不确定性的主要原因包括:(1)利用空间代替时间的样带研究中,往往忽略了植物的非线性响应,存在明显的阈值;(2)样带及定点研究中,由于各种气候因子的耦合.很难确定各种气候因子对植物生理生态学特性影响的权重;(3)定点控制实验中往往忽略了植物对气候变化的适应性,使实验结果很难代表更长时间尺度上的反映模式;(4)在相同的气候变化条件下,不同植物的响应有可能存在明显差异.提出了今后植物对气候变化生理生态响应研究的建议.     

气候变化、火干扰与生态系统生产力

 综述了气候变化、火干扰与生态系统生产力之间的相互作用关系以及目前相关的研究进展。侧重介绍了气候变化与火干扰之间的相互作用关系以及火干扰对生态系统生产力的影响。气候变化通过作用于可燃物质数量、湿度和火灾天气来影响火干扰的发生频率和强度,而火干扰过程释放大量温室气体和烟尘物质反过来也会对气候变化产生影响。另外,火干扰过程改变了火烧迹地的土壤生物地球化学性质、养分循环和分配以及大气组成,进而对生态系统对CO2的吸收能力产生影响。正确理解三者之间的逻辑关系,对于我们有效地利用火管理提高区域生态系统碳吸收,减少碳排放,减缓全球变化速率,都具有重要的指导意义 。     

气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制

气候变化与生物多样性丧失是人类社会正在经历的两大变化。气候变化影响生物多样性的方方面面, 是导致生物多样性丧失的一个主要驱动因子; 反过来, 生物多样性丧失会加剧气候变化。因此, 阻止甚至扭转气候变化和生物多样性丧失是当前人类社会亟需解决的全球性问题,但我们对气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制尚缺乏清晰认识。本文总结了近年气候变化与生物多样性变化的研究进展, 重点概述了不同组织层次、空间尺度和维度的生物多样性对气候变化的响应和反馈等相关领域的研究进展和存在的主要问题。结果发现多数研究关注气候变化对生物多样性的直接影响, 涉及到生物多样性的不同组织层次、维度和营养级, 但针对气候变化间接影响的研究仍然较少, 机理研究同样需要加强; 生物多样性对生态系统功能影响的环境依赖和尺度推演、生物多样性对生态系统多功能性的作用机理和量化方法是当前研究面临的挑战; 生物多样性对生态系统响应气候变化的作用机制尚无统一的认识; 生物多样性对气候变化的正、负反馈效应是国内外研究的盲点。最后, 本文展望了未来发展方向和需要解决的关键科学问题, 包括多因子气候变化对生物多样性的影响; 减缓和适应气候变化的措施如何惠益于生物多样性保护; 生物多样性与生态系统功能的理论如何应用到现实世界; 生物多样性保护对实现碳中和目标的贡献。     

Invertebrates,ecosystem services and climate change

The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate‐mediated services under a changing climate.     

Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning.     

中国森林生态系统净初级生产力时空分布及其对气候变化的响应研究综述

植被生产力是表征植被活力的关键变量,能够反映陆地生态系统的质量状况。森林净初级生产力(NPP)对气候变化的响应研究,是理解森林生态系统碳收支的基础,有助于认识气候变化与森林生态系统的相互作用机制,因而对于深刻理解陆地碳循环和全球变化均具有重要意义。目前我国已有大量针对近几十年国家和区域尺度上植被NPP时空分布的研究,其中专门针对森林生态系统NPP的研究也有不少。研究尺度多为全国范围或者片段式区域,以行政区或流域尺度最为多见。然而,这些研究总体比较分散,其中部分研究的结果、结论并不一致甚至相悖,尚缺乏异同性分析与比较,也缺乏系统性和综合性。这并不利于全面掌握我国相关研究的整体情况、了解清晰明确的研究结论以及进行更深层次的规律及原因探究,也非常影响对森林NPP的精确评估及机理认识,因而,对相关研究成果进行梳理、整合和总结非常有必要。鉴于此,本文收集了近几十年我国植被NPP研究的相关文献,依据其研究结果,系统地综述了全国及区域尺度森林生态系统NPP的时空分布规律及未来可能变化趋势,揭示出NPP与气候因子(以CO₂、温度、降水为主)的关系及对气候变化的响应情况,并指出目前...     

基于潜在植被的中国陆地生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性定量评价

 陆地生态系统对气候变化的响应及其脆弱性评价研究是当前全球变化领域的重要内容之一。该研究在生态系统过程模型的基础上,耦合了潜在 植被对气候变化的动态响应,模拟气候变化对潜在植被分布格局和生态系统主要功能的影响,以潜在植被的变化次数和变化方 向定义植被分布 对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,以生态系统功能特征量的年际变率及其变化趋势定义生态系统功能对气候变化的敏感性和适应性,进而对生态 系统的脆弱性进行定量评价,分析不同气候条件下我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局及其区域特点。结果表明,我国自然生态系统气候脆弱 性的总体特点为南低北高、东低西高,气候变化将会增加系统的脆弱性。采用政府间气候变化委员会排放情景特别报告国内和区域资源情景, 即IPCC-SRES-A2气候情景进行的预测模拟表明,到21世纪末我国不脆弱的生态系统比例将减少22%左右,高度脆弱和极度脆弱的生态系统所占的 比例较当前气候条件下分别减少1.3%和0.4%。气候变化对我国陆地生态系统的脆弱性分布格局影响不大。不同气候条件下,高度脆弱和极度脆 弱的自然生态系统主要分布在我国内蒙古、东北和西北等地区的生态过渡带上及荒漠-草地生态系统中。总体而言,华南及西南大部分地区的生 态系统脆弱性将随气候变化而有所增加,而华北及东北地区则有所减小。     

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate‐related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20‐year period (1993–2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi‐decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change.     

Possible effects of global environmental changes on Antarctic benthos: a synthesis across five major taxa

Because of the unique conditions that exist around the Antarctic continent, Southern Ocean (SO) ecosystems are very susceptible to the growing impact of global climate change and other anthropogenic influences. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand how SO marine life will cope with expected future changes in the environment. Studies of Antarctic organisms have shown that individual species and higher taxa display different degrees of sensitivity to environmental shifts, making it difficult to predict overall community or ecosystem responses. This emphasizes the need for an improved understanding of the Antarctic benthic ecosystem response to global climate change using a multitaxon approach with consideration of different levels of biological organization. Here, we provide a synthesis of the ability of five important Antarctic benthic taxa (Foraminifera, Nematoda, Amphipoda, Isopoda, and Echinoidea) to cope with changes in the environment (temperature, pH, ice cover, ice scouring, food quantity, and quality) that are linked to climatic changes. Responses from individual to the taxon-specific community level to these drivers will vary with taxon but will include local species extinctions, invasions of warmer-water species, shifts in diversity, dominance, and trophic group composition, all with likely consequences for ecosystem functioning. Limitations in our current knowledge and understanding of climate change effects on the different levels are discussed.     

Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC‐AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water‐balance‐related parameters. Temperature‐dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon ‘dieback’ results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long‐term investments are required.     

Non-equilibrium succession dynamics indicate continued northern migration of lodgepole pine

Because species affect ecosystem functioning, understanding migration processes is a key component of predicting future ecosystem responses to climate change. This study provides evidence of range expansion under current climatic conditions of an indigenous species with strong ecosystem effects. Surveys of stands along the northern distribution limit of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in central Yukon Territory, Canada showed consistent increases in pine dominance following fire. These patterns differed strongly from those observed at sites where pine has been present for several thousand years. Differences in species thinning rates are unlikely to account for the observed increases in pine dominance. Rates of pine regeneration at its range limits were equivalent to those of spruce, indicating a capacity for rapid local population expansion. The study also found no evidence of strong climatic limitation of pine population growth at the northern distribution limit. We interpret these data as evidence of current pine expansion at its range limits and conclude that the northern distribution of lodgepole pine is not in equilibrium with current climate. This study has implications for our ability to predict vegetation response to climate change when populations may lag in their response to climate.     

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil‐mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study

Future human well‐being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land‐based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil‐based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in‐depth understanding of the likely response of soil‐based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient‐related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well‐being.     

气候变暖对陆地植被-土壤生态系统的影响研究

由于自然因素及人类活动的长期影响,全球气候变化已经成为不容置疑的事实,并对陆地生态系统的植被及土壤产生了深远影响。陆地植被一土壤生态系统在全球气候变化中的反应与适应等过程已成为众多科学家所关注的问题。为更好地了解陆地植被一土壤生态系统对全球气候变化的响应机制,综述了气候变暖对植物的物候与生长、光合特征、生物量生产与分配,以及土壤呼吸等方面的影响,并对分析得到的结论进行了总结。分析指出,随着全球气候变暖,植物个体和群落特征以及土壤特性都会发生相应改变,高海拔地区的植被高度有增加趋势,而低海拔地区的植被可能出现矮化。然而,在以下方面还存有不确定性：（1）气候变暖导致的植被特征变化是否会减弱全球气候变化;（2）在较长时间尺度上气候变暖如何影响植物的物候和生长,特别是植物的体型;（3）高寒生态系统冬季土壤呼吸对气候变暖如何响应。     

Moving from autonomous to planned adaptation in the montane forests of southeastern Australia under changing fire regimes

Forest ecosystems and their associated natural, cultural and economic values are highly vulnerable to climate driven changes in fire regimes. A detailed knowledge of forest ecosystem responses to altered fire regimes is a necessary underpinning to inform options for adaptive responses under climate change, as well as for providing a basis for understanding how patterns of distribution of vegetation communities that comprise montane forest ecosystems may change in the future. Unplanned consequential adaptation of both natural and human systems, i.e. autonomous adaptation, will occur without planned intervention, with potentially negative impacts on ecosystem services. The persistence of forest stands under changing fire regimes and the maintenance of the ecosystem services that they provide pivot upon underlying response traits, such as the ability to resprout, that determine the degree to which composition, structure and function are likely to change. The integration of ecosystem dynamics into conceptual models and their use in exploring adaptation pathways provides options for policy makers and managers to move from autonomous to planned adaptation responses. Understanding where autonomous adaptation provides a benefit and where it proves potentially undesirable is essential to inform adaptation choices. Plausible scenarios of ecological change can be developed to improve an understanding of the nature and timing of interventions and their consequences, well before natural and human systems autonomously adapt in ways that may be detrimental to the long‐term provision of ecosystem services. We explore the utility of this approach using examples from temperate montane forest ecosystems of southeastern Australia.     

草原生态系统生产力对降水格局响应的研究进展

全球变化背景下降水格局发生了显著改变,主要表现在年降水量、降水季节分配以及降水事件特征(单次降水事件雨量大小、两次降水之间的间隔时长和一年中降水事件的次数等)等几个方面,降水格局的改变将显著影响陆地生态系统功能,尤其是对生产力的影响.草原生态系统是对降水格局改变最敏感的生态系统之一,因此有必要了解草原生态系统生产力对降水格局响应的研究现状及存在的问题.本文首先综述了草原生态系统生产力对降水格局各个特征响应的国内外研究进展,进而从长期观测、控制试验、模型模拟3方面综述了目前降水格局对生产力影响的研究方法,最后从理论研究、研究方法两个方面提出了目前研究存在的问题以及未来的研究方向.本文将为预测草原生态系统如何响应未来气候变化以及在气候变化情景下进行草原生态系统管理提供重要科学依据.     

全球变化野外控制试验及其在土壤微生物生态学研究中的应用

全球变化是近几十年世界广泛关注的热点之一.土地利用变化和化石能源消耗已引起如温室气体增多、气温升高、降水格局改变等多种形式的变化.这些变化对整个生态系统过程,特别是陆地生态系统碳氮循环过程有着深远影响.自20世纪70年代以来,世界各地已开展大量野外控制试验用以模拟单因子和多因子气候变化的影响,这些研究对解释生态系统响应和适应全球变化的内在机制提供了重要的基础.本文梳理了全球变化控制试验的发展历程,介绍了不同因子模拟控制试验的研究概况及不足之处,重点阐述CO₂倍增、增温、降水和模拟氮沉降等全球变化控制试验在土壤微生物生态学研究中的应用,探析土壤微生物及其介导的生态学过程对全球变化的响应和反馈,并对未来野外控制试验需关注的问题和研究方向进行了展望,为认识气候变化对地下生态系统的影响提供参考.     

Global change: Translating plant ecophysiological responses to ecosystems

The physiological responses of plants to elevated CO(2) have not been incorporated into most models of ecosystem function under changed climate. These responses are now well documented, and recent work demonstrates that they can be readily included in ecosystem models. Simulations show that the effects of elevated CO(2) levels on transpiration and gas exchange will increase the sensitivity of community structure (particularly of forests) to climate change.     

Winter climate change,plant traits and nutrient and carbon cycling in cold biomes

It is essential that scientists be able to predict how strong climate warming, including profound changes to winter climate, will affect the ecosystem services of alpine, arctic and boreal areas, and how these services are driven by vegetation–soil feedbacks. One fruitful avenue for studying such changing feedbacks is through plant functional traits, as an understanding of these traits may help us to understand and synthesise (1) responses of vegetation (through ‘response traits’ and ‘specific response functions’ of each species) to winter climate and (2) the effects of changing vegetation composition (through ‘effect traits’ and ‘specific effect functions’ of each species) on soil functions. It is the relative correspondence of variation in response and effect traits that will provide useful data on the impacts of winter climate change on carbon and nutrient cycling processes. Here we discuss several examples of how the trait-based, response–effect framework can help scientists to better understand the effects of winter warming on key ecosystem functions in cold biomes. These examples support the view that measuring species for their response and effect traits, and how these traits are linked across species through correspondence of variation in specific response and effects functions, may be a useful approach for teasing out the contribution of changing vegetation composition to winter warming effects on ecosystem functions. This approach will be particularly useful when linked with ecosystem-level measurements of vegetation and process responses to winter warming along natural gradients, over medium time scales in given sites or in response to experimental climate manipulations.     

陆地碳循环研究中的模型方法

陆地碳循环是全球变化研究中的重要内容,碳循环模型已成为研究陆地碳循环的必要方法．其中气候变化、大气ＣＯ２浓度上升以及人类活动引起的土地利用和土地覆盖变化导致陆地生态系统在结构、功能、组成和分布等方面的变化及其反馈关系对陆地碳循环的影响是模型模拟的关键问题．生物地理模型和生物地球化学模型是碳循环模型的两大类型,建模方法、模型性质、特点和应用范围各异．碳循环模型的发展方向是综合两类模型的特点,建立全球动态碳循环模型．     

自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性评价研究进展

以气候变暖为标志的全球气候变化已引起各国政府、国际组织和科学工作者的高度重视.气候变化给人类及自然生态系统带来的风险和危害日趋增大.生态系统脆弱性分析和评价是适应和减缓气候变化的关键和基础,已成为近年来气候变化领域和生态学领域的研究热点.目前国内外学者正在不同领域、不同空间尺度上开展响应气候变化的脆弱性评价,其中以自然生态系统为评价对象的脆弱性研究也有了长足的发展.本文通过对脆弱性的概念、气候变化脆弱性评价研究现状、自然生态系统响应气候变化的脆弱性定量评价方法的综述,探讨了该研究领域存在的问题和未来的发展前景.