Did impacts, volcanic eruptions, or climate change affect mammalian evolution?

In recent years, it has become popular to attribute faunal change and mass extinction to impacts, volcanic eruptions, or climatic change. How well do these supposed causes compare to the excellent record of Cenozoic life, especially that of fossil mammals? Two different Cenozoic mammal diversity curves were compared, and important climatic, volcanic, and impact horizons were examined in detail. In no case is there a strong correlation between impacts, eruptions, or climatic events and any episode of mammalian turnover. On the contrary, most of the known impact, eruption, and climatic events of the Cenozoic occurred during intervals of faunal stability. Conversely, episodes of high turnover and faunal change among Cenozoic mammals correlate with no known extrinsic causes. Apparently, extrinsic environmental factors such as impacts, eruptions, and climate change have a minimal effect, and intrinsic biological factors must be more important.     

Environmental factors and community dynamics at the southernmost part of the North American Graminetum – I. On the contribution of climatic factors to temporal variation in species composition

Compositional patterns of vegetation and their relationship to temporal and spatial environmental variation, with emphasis on climatic factors, were investigated in plant communities located in the southernmost portion of the North American Graminetum, in central México. Data from 353 samples, obtained in four ecologically contrasting plant communities during 11 years, were analyzed by partial canonical correspondence analysis. Eight climatic variables and eighteen covariables (seventeen edaphic and one resource management) were included in the ordination. A relationship between floristic change and weather variation, once covariables effects were fitted, was examined. Despite a strong contrast in ecological conditions among study sites, a set of four climatic variables was finally found in which each variable contributed independently and statistically (P < 0.01) to the total variance in the vegetation data. Thus, environmental variables other than climatic could not conceal the important role of weather as a mediator of floristic change through time. Summer precipitation and summer maximum temperature showed the highest correlations with the first two species axes, 0.77 and –0.39, respectively. Contribution of these two climatic variables to variance in the vegetation data explained by environmental variables was approximately 81%. Annual species were abundant during rainy years, while abundance of perennial grasses and shrubs showed no clear relationship to weather variation. This study explicitly probes the important role of rain patterns in shaping structure and composition of semiarid communities and considers how other environmental factors can affect plant communities at the southernmost part of the North American Graminetum.     

Impact of Quaternary climatic changes and interspecific competition on the demographic history of a highly mobile generalist carnivore, the coyote

Recurrent cycles of climatic change during the Quaternary period have dramatically affected the population genetic structure of many species. We reconstruct the recent demographic history of the coyote (Canis latrans) through the use of Bayesian techniques to examine the effects of Late Quaternary climatic perturbations on the genetic structure of a highly mobile generalist species. Our analysis reveals a lack of phylogeographic structure throughout the range but past population size changes correlated with climatic changes. We conclude that even generalist carnivorous species are very susceptible to environmental changes associated with climatic perturbations. This effect may be enhanced in coyotes by interspecific competition with larger carnivores.     

Astronomically forced climate change in the Kenyan Rift Valley 2.7-2.55 Ma: implications for the evolution of early hominin ecosystems

Global climate change, linked to astronomical forcing factors, has been implicated in faunal evolutionary change in equatorial Africa, including the origin and diversification of hominin lineages. Empirical terrestrial data demonstrating that orbital forcing has a significant effect, or is detectable, at early hominin sites in equatorial continental interiors during the Pliocene, however, remain limited. Sedimentation patterns in the Baringo Basin within the Central Kenyan Rift Valley between ca. 2.7 and 2.55 Ma, controlled by climatic factors, provide a detailed paleoenvironmental record spanning 35 fossil vertebrate localities, including three hominin sites. The succession includes a sequence of diatomites that record rhythmic cycling of major freshwater lake systems consistent with approximately 23-kyr Milankovitch precessional periodicity. The temporal framework of shifting precipitation patterns, relative to Pliocene insolation curves, implicate African monsoonal climatic control and indicate that climatic fluctuations in Rift Valley ecosystems were paced by global climatic change documented in marine cores. These data provide direct evidence of orbitally mediated environmental change at Pliocene Rift Valley hominin fossil localities, providing a unique opportunity to assess the evolutionary effect of short-term climatic flux on late Pliocene East African terrestrial communities.     

Genetic response to climatic change: insights from ancient DNA and phylochronology

Understanding how climatic change impacts biological diversity is critical to conservation. Yet despite demonstrated effects of climatic perturbation on geographic ranges and population persistence, surprisingly little is known of the genetic response of species. Even less is known over ecologically long time scales pertinent to understanding the interplay between microevolution and environmental change. Here, we present a study of population variation by directly tracking genetic change and population size in two geographically widespread mammal species (Microtus montanus and Thomomys talpoides) during late-Holocene climatic change. We use ancient DNA to compare two independent estimates of population size (ecological and genetic) and corroborate our results with gene diversity and serial coalescent simulations. Our data and analyses indicate that, with population size decreasing at times of climatic change, some species will exhibit declining gene diversity as expected from simple population genetic models, whereas others will not. While our results could be consistent with selection, independent lines of evidence implicate differences in gene flow, which depends on the life history strategy of species.     

Plio-Pleistocene climatic change in the Turkana Basin (East Africa): evidence from large mammal faunas

We investigated palaeoclimatic change in the Turkana Basin during the Pliocene climatic shift toward increased aridity in Africa. We analyzed the palaeoecology of this area using mammal faunas as environmental indicators. Twenty Plio-Pleistocene fossil assemblages and a comparative dataset of 16 modern localities covering a wide range of climatic and ecological conditions across Africa were analyzed. We constructed community profiles using taxonomic variables which reflect ecological information. Principal component analysis and bivariate correlation were used to study changes in the community structure of these mammalian faunas and to draw palaeoenvironmental inferences. Subsequently, least-squares regressions yielded climatic estimates (annual rainfall and drought length) for the studied period. An additional set of 8 modern faunas was used to validate these regression models. The climatic estimates showed a drying trend throughout the sequence. The biomes in the Turkana Basin changed from semi-evergreen rain forest to deciduous woodland and savanna during the middle-late Pliocene. This was the most important climatic shift detected in our study. Evidence suggests a continuous presence of savannas from 2.5 million years ago onwards. This pattern of climatic change is consistent with isotopic evidence on global climate, and with independently derived regional palaeoenvironmental evidence (i.e., micromammals, palaeovegetation, soil carbonates and palaeosols).     

Cumulative weather effects can impact across the whole life cycle

Predicting how species will be affected by future climatic change requires the underlying environmental drivers to be identified. As vital rates vary over the lifecycle, structured population models derived from statistical environment–demography relationships are often used to inform such predictions. Environmental drivers are typically identified independently for different vital rates and demographic classes. However, these rates often exhibit positive temporal covariance, suggesting that vital rates respond to common environmental drivers. Additionally, models often only incorporate average weather conditions during a single, a priori chosen time window (e.g. monthly means). Mismatches between these windows and the period when the vital rates are sensitive to variation in climate decrease the predictive performance of such approaches. We used a demographic structural equation model (SEM) to demonstrate that a single axis of environmental variation drives the majority of the (co)variation in survival, reproduction, and twinning across six age–sex classes in a Soay sheep population. This axis provides a simple target for the complex task of identifying the drivers of vital rate variation. We used functional linear models (FLMs) to determine the critical windows of three local climatic drivers, allowing the magnitude and direction of the climate effects to differ over time. Previously unidentified lagged climatic effects were detected in this well‐studied population. The FLMs had a better predictive performance than selecting a critical window a priori, but not than a large‐scale climate index. Positive covariance amongst vital rates and temporal variation in the effects of environmental drivers are common, suggesting our SEM–FLM approach is a widely applicable tool for exploring the joint responses of vital rates to environmental change.     

Yield stability: an agronomic perspective on the origin of Near Eastern agriculture

Here we argue that, based on evolutionary, ecological and agronomic considerations, climate change could not have been a suitable background nor a probable cause of plant domestication in the Near East. This thesis is developed based on the year-to-year yield dynamics in traditional rainfed grain farming in semi-arid environments, on the genetic basis that underlies temporal yield dynamics in natural wild cereal populations as well as in traditional farming systems, and upon the recognition that prior to elaborate high capacity and long-range trade networks, yield stability was more important than yield maximization. We also briefly discuss the likely social and cultural responses to subtle and real climatic changes vs. responses to rapid directional environmental trends. Taking into account the agronomic, ecological and genetic aspects discussed, it is suggested that the Near Eastern founder crop assemblage was chosen to function within the normal east Mediterranean precipitation regime, in which good rainy years create the ‘normal surplus’ that sustains farming communities during drought years, and the different crop types provide the system with its compensating ability. A slow (but real) climatic change is unlikely to induce major (revolutionary) cultural changes. Nor would a prominent environmental change provide the proper background for the origins of agriculture because it would abolish the buffering capacity of the system. Therefore, farming cannot function as a sustainable ‘buffering mechanism’ to counterbalance climatic instability causing natural resource depletion.     

Les réponses des Ongulés du Pléistocène Supérieuraux changements climatiques en Aquitaine (Sud-Ouest de la France): Quelques exemples

Range displacements by pleistocene ungulates, strongly linked to climatic variations, are apparent based on regional-scale examination of faunal assem-blages; either species appearances or disappearances, or variability in relative species frequencies is evidence for such displacement. Appearances and disappearances of species most often occur with major climatic changes, while frequency variations characterize environmental changes of lesser magnitude.Whenever it is possible to examine processes offaunal change in detail, it becomes evident that they were typically progressive even though they may appear abrupt on a geologic scale. In particular, the disappearance of a species occurs only after populations attempt to adapt to new environmental conditions on a regional level. Adaptative responses may not be successful when climatic shifts are great, involving significant alteration of the extant biosphere, but they may be successful when climatic variability is less radical or when change occurs slowly enough to allow animal populations to develop adequate new adaptative strategies. An example of successful adaptation is provided by the wurmian reindeer. The most humid periods during the early recent Wurm stadial, along with the very dry “inter Laugerie-Lascaux” phase, produced a temporary decrease in relative reindeer frequencies in Aquitaine faunal assemblages. The sharp cold of the Pleniglacial (22000–13500 BP), in contrast, led to a reduction in mean stature of reindeers.     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population

1. There is growing evidence that ongoing climate change affects populations and species. Physiological limitation and phenotypic plasticity suggest nonlinear response of vital rates to climatic parameters, the intensity of environmental impact might be more pronounced while the frequency of extreme events increases. However, a poor understanding of these patterns presently hampers our predictive capabilities. 2. A recent climatic shift in the Sahel, from droughty to less severe condition, offers a good opportunity to test for an influence of the climatic regime on the response of organisms to their environment. Using a long-term capture-mark-recapture data set on a white stork (Ciconia ciconia) population wintering in Sahel, we investigated potential change in the impact of environmental conditions on survival and recruitment probabilities between 1981 and 2003. 3. We observed a decrease in the strength of the link between survival and Sahel rainfall during the last decade, down to a nondetectable level. Whether Sahel climate was found to affect the survival of storks under droughty conditions, individuals did not seem to respond to climatic variation when precipitation was more abundant. 4. This result gives evidence to a nonlinear response of a migrant bird to wintering environment. Present climate seems to fluctuate within a range of condition providing enough resources to maximize stork's survival. It suggests that whereas inter-annual variability impacted individuals, pluri-annual average condition affected the intensity of this impact. Such pattern may be more widespread than thought, and its modelling will be crucial to predict the impact of future climate change on population dynamics.     

Effects of past and projected river discharge variability on freshwater production in an anadromous fish

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Demographic responses of eastern bluebirds to climatic variability in northeastern Arkansas

As climate change continues to alter temperature and precipitation patterns, numerous species have declined. However, populations of some species that show responses to climate change, such as eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis), have increased or remained stable nationwide. To understand how species are adapting to climate change, we estimated demographic parameters and their responses to climatic variability, using nesting and banding-recapture data between 2003 and 2018 in a northeastern Arkansas eastern bluebird population. Increasing variability in precipitation in the nonbreeding season negatively affected hatchability. Hatching success was negatively affected by increasing variability in maximum temperatures and the number of hot days during the breeding season, but positively affected by increasing winter snow depth. Adult survival was positively affected by increasing snow depth and variability in the number of hot days during the breeding season, but negatively affected by increasing variability in nonbreeding season temperatures. Our results demonstrate that for this study population, annual breeding parameters, though canalized against interannual environmental variation, were affected by seasonal climatic variability. Although climate change may benefit bluebird survival due to increasing variability in winter temperatures and the number of hot days, climatic variability negatively affected breeding parameters and is expected to increase. Because breeding parameters are typically the drivers of population growth rate in short-lived species, these results raise concern for the future of this population of eastern bluebirds.     

Evidence of a shift in the cyclicity of Antarctic seabird dynamics linked to climate

Ecosystems and populations are known to be influenced not only by long-term climatic trends, but also by other short-term climatic modes, such as interannual and decadal-scale variabilities. Because interactions between climatic forcing, biotic and abiotic components of ecosystems are subtle and complex, analysis of long-term series of both biological and physical factors is essential to understanding these interactions. Here, we apply a wavelet analysis simultaneously to long-term datasets on the environment and on the populations and breeding success of three Antarctic seabirds (southern fulmar, snow petrel, emperor penguin) breeding in Terre Adélie, to study the effects of climate fluctuations on Antarctic marine ecosystems. We show that over the past 40 years, populations and demographic parameters of the three species fluctuate with a periodicity of 3-5 years that was also detected in sea-ice extent and the Southern Oscillation Index. Although the major periodicity of these interannual fluctuations is not common to different species and environmental variables, their cyclic characteristics reveal a significant change since 1980. Moreover, sliding-correlation analysis highlighted the relationships between environmental variables and the demography of the three species, with important change of correlation occurring between the end of the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. These results suggest that a regime shift has probably occurred during this period, significantly affecting the Antarctic ecosystem, but with contrasted effects on the three species.     

Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate,non‐climatic environmental factors,and spatial constraints

Most of the Earth's biodiversity resides in the tropics. However, a comprehensive understanding of which factors control range limits of tropical species is still lacking. Climate is often thought to be the predominant range‐determining mechanism at large spatial scales. Alternatively, species’ ranges may be controlled by soil or other environmental factors, or by non‐environmental factors such as biotic interactions, dispersal barriers, intrinsic population dynamics, or time‐limited expansion from place of origin or past refugia. How species ranges are controlled is of key importance for predicting their responses to future global change. Here, we use a novel implementation of species distribution modelling (SDM) to assess the degree to which African continental‐scale species distributions in a keystone tropical group, the palms (Arecaceae), are controlled by climate, non‐climatic environmental factors, or non‐environmental spatial constraints. A comprehensive data set on African palm species occurrences was assembled and analysed using the SDM algorithm Maxent in combination with climatic and non‐climatic environmental predictors (habitat, human impact), as well as spatial eigenvector mapping (spatial filters). The best performing models always included spatial filters, suggesting that palm species distributions are always to some extent limited by non‐environmental constraints. Models which included climate provided significantly better predictions than models that included only non‐climatic environmental predictors, the latter having no discernible effect beyond the climatic control. Hence, at the continental scale, climate constitutes the only strong environmental control of palm species distributions in Africa. With regard to the most important climatic predictors of African palm distributions, water‐related factors were most important for 25 of the 29 species analysed. The strong response of palm distributions to climate in combination with the importance of non‐environmental spatial constraints suggests that African palms will be sensitive to future climate changes, but that their ability to track suitable climatic conditions will be spatially constrained.     

Stability in a changing world – palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years

Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995, 2012) of a palm community to assess changes in community structure and composition. Over 17 years, the structure and composition of this palm community remained remarkably stable. Soil humidity was significantly lower and canopy conditions were significantly more open in 2012 compared to 1995, but local climatic records showed that no significant changes in precipitation, temperature or river level have occurred during the last decade. Thus, we found no evidence of recent directional shifts in climate or the palm community in Yasuní. The absence of changes in local climate and plant community dynamics in Yasuní contrasts with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm community embedded in the hyperdiverse Yasuní National Park underlines its uniqueness as a sanctuary for the protection of Amazonian diversity from global change impacts.     

Habitat variability correlates with duplicate content of Drosophila genomes

The factors limiting the habitat range of species are crucial in understanding their biodiversity and response to environmental change. Yet the genetic and genomic architectures that produce genetic variation to enable environmental adaptation have remained poorly understood. Here we show that the proportion of duplicated genes (P(D)) in the whole genomes of fully sequenced Drosophila species is significantly correlated with environmental variability within the habitats measured by the climatic envelope and habitat diversity. Furthermore, species with a low P(D) tend to lose the duplicated genes owing to their faster evolution. These results indicate that the rapid relaxation of functional constraints on duplicated genes resulted in a low P(D) for species with lower habitat diversity, and suggest that the maintenance of duplicated genes gives organisms an ecological advantage during evolution. We therefore propose that the P(D) in a genome is related to adaptation to environmental variation.     

树木年轮年内高分辨率稳定同位素记录:方法、进展和展望

树轮稳定同位素比率能有效地记录树木生长过程中气候环境变化信息及树木的生理响应机制。年内高分辨率树轮稳定同位素比率则能够提供更为详细的气候环境信息,揭示树木对季节尺度气候环境变化的生理生态响应机制,在古气候和全球变化生态学研究方面显示出巨大的潜力。本文收集了1990年以来发表的树轮年内高分辨率稳定同位素比率研究论文,从样品剥离方法、α-纤维素化学提取方法以及应用等方面综述了其研究进展,展望了年内高分辨率树轮稳定同位素记录研究的潜力和未来发展方向。     

东北红豆杉幼苗黄酮类化合物含量变化及其对气候因子的响应

植物在进化适应过程中形成了一套对环境变化响应的防御体系,其中黄酮类化合物作为植物体内重要的次生代谢产物,是表征植物化学防御能力的重要指标。本研究将5个种源东北红豆杉幼苗分别移栽到4个试验地(37°N-43°N),利用多酚测量仪Multiplex-3(Force-A,France)对其叶片表皮黄酮类化合物含量进行无损测定,探讨随试验地、种源地气候因子的变化,东北红豆杉幼苗黄酮类化合物含量的变化规律。结果表明:试验地环境变化对类黄酮指数、花青素指数变化的相对贡献率大于种源地、试验地与种源地交互效应的相对贡献率;试验地气候因子对类黄酮指数、花青素指数解释率(49.8%、55.4%)分别高于种源地气候因子的解释率(35.3%、29.2%);东北红豆杉幼苗类黄酮指数、花青素指数随试验地纬度的升高而下降;试验地3类气候因子方差分解结果显示,光照因子对类黄酮指数、花青素指数变化的单独解释率最高;种源地气候因子方差分解结果显示,水分因子对类黄酮指数、花青素指数变化的单独解释率最高;试验地环境变化对东北红豆杉幼苗黄酮类化合物含量变化起主要作用;东北红豆杉幼苗在低纬度试验地表现出更强的化学防御能力;光照因子在短期影响东北红豆杉幼苗黄酮类化合物含量变化中起主导作用,而长期影响黄酮类化合物含量变化则转变为水分因子起主导作用。