Speciation in the fossil record

It is easy to claim that the fossil record says nothing about speciation because the biological species concept (which relies on interbreeding) cannot be applied to it and genetic studies cannot be carried out on it. However, fossilized organisms are often preserved in sufficient abundance for populations of intergrading morphs to be recognized, which, by analogy with modern populations, are probably biological species. Moreover, the fossil record is our only reliable documentation of the sequence of past events over long time intervals: the processes of speciation are generally too slow to be observed directly, and permanent reproductive isolation can only be verified with hindsight. Recent work has shown that some parts of the fossil record are astonishingly complete and well documented, and patterns of lineage splitting can be examined in detail. Marine plankton appear to show gradual speciation, with subsequent morphological differentiation of lineages taking up to 500000 years to occur. Marine invertebrates and vertebrates more commonly show punctuated patterns, with periods of rapid speciation followed by long-term stasis of species lineages.     

The fossil record of the sixth extinction

Comparing the magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis with those in the fossil record is difficult without an understanding of differential preservation. Integrating data from palaeontological databases with information on IUCN status, ecology and life history characteristics of contemporary mammals, we demonstrate that only a small and biased fraction of threatened species (< 9%) have a fossil record, compared with 20% of non‐threatened species. We find strong taphonomic biases related to body size and geographic range. Modern species with a fossil record tend to be large and widespread and were described in the 19^th century. The expected magnitude of the current extinction based only on species with a fossil record is about half of that of one based on all modern species; values for genera are similar. The record of ancient extinctions may be similarly biased, with many species having originated and gone extinct without leaving a tangible record.     

Power spectra of extinction in the fossil record

Recent Fourier analyses of fossil extinction data have indicated that the power spectrum of extinction during the Phanerozoic may take the form of 1/f noise, a result which, it has been suggested, could be indicative of the presence of `critical dynamics'' in the processes giving rise to extinction. In this paper we examine extinction power spectra in some detail, using family-level data from two widely available compilations. We find that although the average form of the power spectrum roughly obeys the 1/f law, the spectrum can be represented more accurately by dividing it into two regimes: a low-frequency one which is well fit by an exponential, and a high-frequency one in which it follows a power law with a 1/f² form. We give explanations for the occurrence of each of these behaviours and for the position of the crossover between them.     

Patterns of generic extinction in the fossil record

Analysis of the stratigraphic records of 19,897 fossil genera indicates that most classes and orders show largely congruent rises and falls in extinction intensity throughout the Phanerozoic. Even an ecologically homogeneous sample of reef genera shows the same basic extinction profile. The most likely explanation for the congruence is that extinction is physically rather than biologically driven and that it is dominated by the effects of geographically widespread environmental perturbations influencing most habitats. Significant departures from the congruence are uncommon but important because they indicate physiological or habitat selectivity. The similarity of the extinction records of reef organisms and the marine biota as a whole confirms that reefs and other faunas are responding to the same history of environmental stress.     

Mass extinction events and the plant fossil record

Five mass extinction events have punctuated the geological record of marine invertebrate life. They are characterized by faunal extinction rates and magnitudes that far exceed those observed elsewhere in the geological record. Despite compelling evidence that these extinction events were probably driven by dramatic global environmental change, they were originally thought to have little macroecological or evolutionary consequence for terrestrial plants. New high-resolution regional palaeoecological studies are beginning to challenge this orthodoxy, providing evidence for extensive ecological upheaval, high species-level turnover and recovery intervals lasting millions of years. The challenge ahead is to establish the geographical extent of the ecological upheaval, because reconstructing the vegetation dynamics associated with these events will elucidate the role of floral change in faunal mass extinction and provide a better understanding of how plants have historically responded to global environmental change similar to that anticipated for our future.     

Diversity-dependence brings molecular phylogenies closer to agreement with the fossil record

The branching times of molecular phylogenies allow us to infer speciation and extinction dynamics even when fossils are absent. Troublingly, phylogenetic approaches usually return estimates of zero extinction, conflicting with fossil evidence. Phylogenies and fossils do agree, however, that there are often limits to diversity. Here, we present a general approach to evaluate the likelihood of a phylogeny under a model that accommodates diversity-dependence and extinction. We find, by likelihood maximization, that extinction is estimated most precisely if the rate of increase in the number of lineages in the phylogeny saturates towards the present or first decreases and then increases. We demonstrate the utility and limits of our approach by applying it to the phylogenies for two cases where a fossil record exists (Cetacea and Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera) and to three radiations lacking fossil evidence (Dendroica, Plethodon and Heliconius). We propose that the diversity-dependence model with extinction be used as the standard model for macro-evolutionary dynamics because of its biological realism and flexibility.     

Egg size evolution in tropical American arcid bivalves: the comparative method and the fossil record

Marine organisms exhibit a wide range of egg sizes, even among closely related taxa, and egg size is widely considered to be one of the most important components of the life histories of marine species. The nature of the trade-off between egg size and number and the consequences of variation in egg size for offspring growth and survivorship have been extensively modeled. Yet, there is little empirical evidence that supports the relative importance of particular environmental parameters in engendering the tremendous variation in egg size seen in marine organisms. This study compares egg sizes between six geminate species pairs of bivalves in the family Arcidae to determine whether egg size differs in predictable directions between geminate species in the two oceans separated by the Central American isthmus, and whether the direction and timing of egg size evolution among geminates in this family is correlated with both modern and paleoceanographic patterns of oceanic productivity. In all modern members of six geminate pairs, egg size was larger in the species in the western Atlantic than in its sister species the eastern Pacific. This pattern supports the hypothesis that optimal egg size differs in the two oceans due to the low productivity and poor larval feeding environment in the western Atlantic relative to the eastern Pacific. The fossil record of one geminate pair shows that egg size has remained consistently large in the western Atlantic from the Miocene to the Recent, while egg size in the eastern Pacific has decreased to the current small size in less than 2 million years; this suggests that modern-day differences between egg sizes in the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific are due to either an increase in productivity in the eastern Pacific and subsequent selection for smaller eggs in that ocean, or differential patterns of extinction that occurred well after the rise of the isthmus. These results agree with ancestral character state reconstruction using linear parsimony, but differ from squared-change parsimony reconstructions.     

Evaluating the predicted extinction risk of living amphibian species with the fossil record

Bridging the gap between the fossil record and conservation biology has recently become of great interest. The enormous number of documented extinctions across different taxa can provide insights into the extinction risk of living species. However, few studies have explored this connection. We used generalised boosted modelling to analyse the impact of several traits that are assumed to influence extinction risk on the stratigraphic duration of amphibian species in the fossil record. We used this fossil‐calibrated model to predict the extinction risk for living species. We observed a high consensus between our predicted species durations and the current IUCN Red List status of living amphibian species. We also found that today's Data Deficient species are mainly predicted to experience short durations, hinting at their likely high threat status. Our study suggests that the fossil record can be a suitable tool for the evaluation of current taxa‐specific Red Listing status.     

Vertebrate cranial evolution: Contributions and conflict from the fossil record

In modern vertebrates, the craniofacial skeleton is complex, comprising cartilage and bone of the neurocranium, dermatocranium and splanchnocranium (and their derivatives), housing a range of sensory structures such as eyes, nasal and vestibulo-acoustic capsules, with the splanchnocranium including branchial arches, used in respiration and feeding. It is well understood that the skeleton derives from neural crest and mesoderm, while the sensory elements derive from ectodermal thickenings known as placodes. Recent research demonstrates that neural crest and placodes have an evolutionary history outside of vertebrates, while the vertebrate fossil record allows the sequence of the evolution of these various features to be understood. Stem-group vertebrates such as Metaspriggina walcotti (Burgess Shale, Middle Cambrian) possess eyes, paired nasal capsules and well-developed branchial arches, the latter derived from cranial neural crest in extant vertebrates, indicating that placodes and neural crest evolved over 500 million years ago. Since that time the vertebrate craniofacial skeleton has evolved, including different types of bone, of potential neural crest or mesodermal origin. One problematic part of the craniofacial skeleton concerns the evolution of the nasal organs, with evidence for both paired and unpaired nasal sacs being the primitive state for vertebrates.     

A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record

The past relationship between global temperature and levels of biological diversity is of increasing concern due to anthropogenic climate warming. However, no consistent link between these variables has yet been demonstrated. We analysed the fossil record for the last 520 Myr against estimates of low latitude sea surface temperature for the same period. We found that global biodiversity (the richness of families and genera) is related to temperature and has been relatively low during warm 'greenhouse' phases, while during the same phases extinction and origination rates of taxonomic lineages have been relatively high. These findings are consistent for terrestrial and marine environments and are robust to a number of alternative assumptions and potential biases. Our results provide the first clear evidence that global climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. Our findings may have implications for extinction and biodiversity change under future climate warming.     

Insect-damaged fossil leaves record food web response to ancient climate change and extinction

Plants and herbivorous insects have dominated terrestrial ecosystems for over 300 million years. Uniquely in the fossil record, foliage with well-preserved insect damage offers abundant and diverse information both about producers and about ecological and sometimes taxonomic groups of consumers. These data are ideally suited to investigate food web response to environmental perturbations, and they represent an invaluable deep-time complement to neoecological studies of global change. Correlations between feeding diversity and temperature, between herbivory and leaf traits that are modulated by climate, and between insect diversity and plant diversity can all be investigated in deep time. To illustrate, I emphasize recent work on the time interval from the latest Cretaceous through the middle Eocene (67-47 million years ago (Ma)), including two significant events that affected life: the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (65.5 Ma) and its ensuing recovery; and globally warming temperatures across the Paleocene-Eocene boundary (55.8 Ma). Climatic effects predicted from neoecology generally hold true in these deep-time settings. Rising temperature is associated with increased herbivory in multiple studies, a result with major predictive importance for current global warming. Diverse floras are usually associated with diverse insect damage; however, recovery from the end-Cretaceous extinction reveals uncorrelated plant and insect diversity as food webs rebuilt chaotically from a drastically simplified state. Calibration studies from living forests are needed to improve interpretation of the fossil data.     

Body size of insular carnivores: evidence from the fossil record

Aim Our goals here are to: (1) assess the generality of one aspect of the island rule – the progressive trend towards decrease in size in larger species – for fossil carnivores on islands; (2) offer causal explanations for this pattern and deviations from it – as far as fossil carnivores are concerned; and (3) estimate the speed of this trend. Location Oceanic and oceanic‐like islands world‐wide. Methods Body size estimates of fossil insular carnivores and of their phylogenetically closest mainland relative were obtained from our own data and the published literature. Our dataset consisted of 18 species from nine islands world‐wide. These data were used to test whether the body size of fossil insular carnivores varies as a function of body size of the mainland species in combination with characteristics of the island ecosystem. Results Dwarfism was observed in two canid species. Moderate decrease in body mass was observed in one hyena species. Gigantism was observed in one otter species. Moderate body mass increase was observed in two otter species, one galictine mustelid and perhaps one canid. Negligible or no change in body mass at all was observed in five otter species, three galictine mustelids and one genet. Size changes in teeth do not lag behind in comparison to skeletal elements in the dwarfed canids. The evolutionary speed of dwarfism in a canid lineage is low. Main conclusions Size change in fossil terrestrial insular carnivores was constrained by certain ecological conditions, especially the availability of prey of appropriate body size. When such alternative prey was not available, the carnivores retained their mainland size. The impact of competitive carnivores seems negligible. The case of (semi‐)aquatic carnivores is much less clear. The species that maintained their ancestral body mass may have changed their diet, as is evidenced by their dentition. Among the otters, one case of significant size increase was observed, perhaps best explained as being due to it entering the niche of an obligate aquatic otter. Dwarfism was not observed in otters. The island rule seems to apply to fossil carnivores, but with exceptions. The dependency of the island rule on resource availability is emphasized by the present study.     

The shape of pterosaur evolution: evidence from the fossil record

Abstract Although pterosaurs are a well‐known lineage of Mesozoic flying reptiles, their fossil record and evolutionary dynamics have never been adequately quantified. On the basis of a comprehensive data set of fossil occurrences correlated with taxon‐specific limb measurements, we show that the geological ages of pterosaur specimens closely approximate hypothesized patterns of phylogenetic divergence. Although the fossil record has expanded greatly in recent years, collectorship still approximates a sigmoid curve over time as many more specimens (and thus taxa) still remain undiscovered, yet our data suggest that the pterosaur fossil record is unbiased by sites of exceptional preservation (lagerstätte). This is because as new species are discovered the number of known formations and sites yielding pterosaur fossils has also increased – this would not be expected if the bulk of the record came from just a few exceptional faunas. Pterosaur morphological diversification is, however, strongly age biased: rarefaction analysis shows that peaks of diversity occur in the Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous correlated with periods of increased limb disparity. In this respect, pterosaurs appear unique amongst flying vertebrates in that their disparity seems to have peaked relatively late in clade history. Comparative analyses also show that there is little evidence that the evolutionary diversification of pterosaurs was in any way constrained by the appearance and radiation of birds.     

The fossil record and estimating divergence times between lineages: Maximum divergene times and the importance of reliable phylogenies

Summary Bounded estimates on divergence times between lineaes are crucial to the calculation of absolute rates of molecular evolution. Upper (minimum) bounds on divergence times are easily estimated based on earliest fossil finds. Lower (maximum) bounds are more difficult to estimate; the age of putative ancestors may be used, though in practice it is virtually impossible to distinguish ancestors from primitive sister groups, which do not, of logical necessit, consitute lower bounds on divergence times. Two relatively new approaches to estimating lower bounds directly assess the incompleteness of the fossil record. The first uses taphonomic control groups to distinguish real absences from nonpreservation, while the second, and probably more powerful, uses the quality of the fossil recored to estimate confidence intervals on the bases of stratigraphic ranges. For some groups, especially vertebrates, the inclusion or exclusion of problematic fossils can dramaticaly affect estimated lower bounds on divergence times, often swamping the uncertainties due to the incompleteness of the fossil record and/or corelation and dating errors. When datable paleogeographic events reflect ancient divisions of faunas, a lower bound on the divergence time of speices within a fauna can be established based on the geologic, rather than fossil, record. The fossil records of hominids, eutherianmammals, echinoids, and geese are used as examples.This article was presented at the C.S.E.O.L. Conferrence on DNA-DNA Hybridization and Evolution, Lake Arrowhead, California, May 11–14, 1989     

Hominin cognitive evolution: identifying patterns and processes in the fossil and archaeological record

As only limited insight into behaviour is available from the archaeological record, much of our understanding of historical changes in human cognition is restricted to identifying changes in brain size and architecture. Using both absolute and residual brain size estimates, we show that hominin brain evolution was likely to be the result of a mix of processes; punctuated changes at approximately 100 kya, 1 Mya and 1.8 Mya are supplemented by gradual within-lineage changes in Homo erectus and Homo sapiens sensu lato. While brain size increase in Homo in Africa is a gradual process, migration of hominins into Eurasia is associated with step changes at approximately 400 kya and approximately 100 kya. We then demonstrate that periods of rapid change in hominin brain size are not temporally associated with changes in environmental unpredictability or with long-term palaeoclimate trends. Thus, we argue that commonly used global sea level or Indian Ocean dust palaeoclimate records provide little evidence for either the variability selection or aridity hypotheses explaining changes in hominin brain size. Brain size change at approximately 100 kya is coincident with demographic change and the appearance of fully modern language. However, gaps remain in our understanding of the external pressures driving encephalization, which will only be filled by novel applications of the fossil, palaeoclimatic and archaeological records.     

Estimating sexual dimorphism and size differences in the fossil record: A test of methods

Investigations of size variation in fossil and archaeological skeletal assemblages may be complicated by incomplete skeletons, biased representation of sexes, and the lack of morphological features that identify sex. In order to refine our ability to evaluate size variation, we test the accuracy of three methods that are currently used to estimate size differences in unsexed (pooled) samples: the means method, the median method, and a newly applied technique, the method of moments. Using body mass data from 42 primate species, we calculated actual levels of sexual dimorphism for each species and compared these values to estimates produced by each method. Multivariate regression was used to examine the effects of sample distribution characteristics, including sample size, kurtosis, skewness, sample variance, sex ratio, and intrasexual variance on the performance of the methods. None of the methods appears to be especially accurate. However, one of the simplest methods, the means method, performs relatively well. Factors that lead to inaccuracies in estimation are not readily evident based on multiple regression analysis. We urge caution in the utilization of these techniques, and advocate further analysis of simulated data. Am J Phys Anthropol 110: 95–104, 1999. © 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Amphibian development in the fossil record

Ontogenetic series of extinct taxa are extremely rare and when preserved often incomplete and difficult to interpret. However, the fossil record of amphibians includes a number of well-preserved ontogenetic sequences for temnospondyl and lepospondyl taxa, which have provided valuable information about the development of these extinct groups. Here we summarize the current knowledge on fossil ontogenies of amphibians, their potential and limitations for relationship assessments, and discuss the insights they have provided for our understanding of the anatomy, life history, and ecology of extinct amphibians.     

Developmental bias in the fossil record

The role of developmental bias and plasticity in evolution is a central research interest in evolutionary biology. Studies of these concepts and related processes are usually conducted on extant systems and have seen limited investigation in the fossil record. Here, I identify plasticity‐led evolution (PLE) as a form of developmental bias accessible through scrutiny of paleontological material. I summarize the process of PLE and describe it in terms of the environmentally mediated accumulation and release of cryptic genetic variation. Given this structure, I then predict its manifestation in the fossil record, discuss its similarity to quantum evolution and punctuated equilibrium, and argue that these describe macroevolutionary patterns concordant with PLE. Finally, I suggest methods and directions towards providing evidence of PLE in the fossil record and conclude that such endeavors are likely to be highly rewarding.