Coupled ecological and social dynamics in a forested landscape: the deviation of individual decisions from the social optimum

We present a Markov chain model for land-use dynamics in a forested landscape. This model emphasizes the importance of coupling socioeconomic and ecological processes underlying landscape change. We assume that a forest is composed of many land parcels, each of which is in one of a finite list of land-use states. The land-use state of each land parcel changes stochastically. The transition probability is determined by two processes: the forest succession and the decision of landowners. The landowner tends to choose the land-use state which has a high expected discounted utility, i.e., the sum of the current and the future utilities of the land parcel. Landowners take the likelihood of future landscape changes into account when making decisions. We focus on a three-state model in which forested, agricultural, and abandoned states are considered. The land-use composition at equilibrium was analyzed and compared with the social optimum that maximizes the net benefit of all landowners in a society. We show that when landowners make a myopic choice focused on short-term benefits, their individual decisions tend to push the entire landscape toward an agricultural state even if the forested state represents the highest utility. This land-use composition at equilibrium is very different from the social optimum. A long-term management perspective and an enhanced rate of forest recovery can eliminate the discrepancy.     

A game theoretical model of deforestation in human-environment relationships

We studied a two-person game regarding deforestation in human-environment relationships. Each landowner manages a single land parcel where the state of land-use is forested, agricultural, or abandoned. The landowner has two strategies available: forest conservation and deforestation. The choice of deforestation provides a high return to the landowner, but it degrades the forest ecosystem services produced on a neighboring land parcel managed by a different landowner. Given spatial interactions between the two landowners, each landowner decides which strategy to choose by comparing the expected discounted utility of each strategy. Expected discounted utility is determined by taking into account the current and future utilities to be received, according to the state transition on the two land parcels. The state transition is described by a Markov chain that incorporates a landowner's choice about whether to deforest and the dynamics of agricultural abandonment and forest regeneration. By considering a stationary distribution of the Markov chain for land-use transitions, we derive explicit conditions for Nash equilibrium. We found that a slow regeneration of forests favors mutual cooperation (forest conservation). As the forest regenerates faster, mutual cooperation transforms to double Nash equilibria (mutual cooperation and mutual defection), and finally mutual defection (deforestation) leads to a unique Nash equilibrium. Two different types of social dilemma emerge in our deforestation game. The stag-hunt dilemma is most likely to occur under an unsustainable resource supply, where forest regenerates extremely slowly but agricultural abandonment happens quite rapidly. In contrast, the prisoner's dilemma is likely under a persistent or circulating supply of resources, where forest regenerates rapidly and agricultural abandonment occurs slowly or rapidly. These results show how humans and the environment mutually shape the dilemma structure in forest management, implying that solutions to dilemmas depend on environmental properties.     

An Agent-Based Model of Private Woodland Owner Management Behavior Using Social Interactions,Information Flow,and Peer-To-Peer Networks

Privately owned woodlands are an important source of timber and ecosystem services in North America and worldwide. Impacts of management on these ecosystems and timber supply from these woodlands are difficult to estimate because complex behavioral theory informs the owner’s management decisions. The decision-making environment consists of exogenous market factors, internal cognitive processes, and social interactions with fellow landowners, foresters, and other rural community members. This study seeks to understand how social interactions, information flow, and peer-to-peer networks influence timber harvesting behavior using an agent-based model. This theoretical model includes forested polygons in various states of ‘harvest readiness’ and three types of agents: forest landowners, foresters, and peer leaders (individuals trained in conservation who use peer-to-peer networking). Agent rules, interactions, and characteristics were parameterized with values from existing literature and an empirical survey of forest landowner attitudes, intentions, and demographics. The model demonstrates that as trust in foresters and peer leaders increases, the percentage of the forest that is harvested sustainably increases. Furthermore, peer leaders can serve to increase landowner trust in foresters. Model output and equations will inform forest policy and extension/outreach efforts. The model also serves as an important testing ground for new theories of landowner decision making and behavior.     

Carrot or Stick? Modelling How Landowner Behavioural Responses Can Cause Incentive-Based Forest Governance to Backfire

Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested), and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility). We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incentive for conservation, one-time penalty for deforestation and one-time incentive for reforestation. The incentive and penalty are incorporated into the expected utility of forested land, which decreases the net gain of deforestation. By analyzing the equilibrium and stability of the landscape dynamics, we observe four possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, an unstable landscape fluctuating near the equilibrium, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. We find that the two incentive-based strategies often result in highly fluctuating forest cover over decadal time scales or longer, and in a few cases, reforestation incentives actually decrease the average forest cover. In contrast, a penalty for deforestation results in the stable persistence of forest cover (generally >30%). The idea that larger conservation incentives will always yield higher and more stable forest cover is not supported in our findings. The decision to deforest is influenced by more than a simple, “rational” cost-benefit analysis: social learning and myopic, stochastic decision-making also have important effects. We conclude that design of incentive programs may need to account for potential counter-productive long-term effects due to behavioural feedbacks.     

Comparison between perfect information and passive–adaptive social learning models of forest harvesting

This paper compares perfect information and passive–adaptive social learning models of forest harvesting using a simple Markov chain model for land-use dynamics. A perfect information model assumes that landowners know true utility values of forest conservation and harvesting. In contrast, a passive–adaptive social learning model assumes that landowners do not know true utility values and they learn these values by their past experiences and by exchanging information with others in a society. We determine conditions under which the same consequences expected from perfect information and passive–adaptive social learning models. We found that the outcome from a perfect information model resembles that from passive–adaptive social learning model only when the perfect information model incorporates little discounting for future values. The stability analysis of landscape dynamics predicts a cyclic overexploitation of forest resources in a passive–adaptive social learning model with short-term memory, while instability of landscapes is never expected in a perfect information model. We discuss the role of discounting the future and discounting the past in the context of forest management.     

Ethnobiology, socio-economics and management of mangrove forests: A review

There is growing research interest in the ethnobiology, socio-economics and management of mangrove forests. Coastal residents who use mangroves and their resources may have considerable botanical and ecological knowledgeable about these forests. A wide variety of forest products are harvested in mangroves, especially wood for fuel and construction, tannins and medicines. Although there are exceptions, mangrove forest products are typically harvested in a small-scale and selective manner, with harvesting efforts and impacts concentrated in stands that are closer to settlements and easiest to access (by land or by sea). Mangroves support diverse, local fisheries, and also provide critical nursery habitat and marine productivity which support wider commercial fisheries. These forests also provide valuable ecosystem services that benefit coastal communities, including coastal land stabilization and storm protection. The overlapping of marine and terrestrial resources in mangroves creates tenure ambiguities that complicate management and may induce conflict between competing interests. Mangroves have been cut and cleared extensively to make way for brackish water aquaculture and infrastructure development. More attention is now given to managing remaining forests sustainably and to restoring those degraded from past use. Recent advances in remotely sensed, geo-spatial monitoring provide opportunities for researchers and planners to better understand and improve the management of these unique forested wetlands.     

Causes of Deforestation: The Maine Case

Many of the world’s forests are being destroyed at a rapid rate. This article analyzes the decisions of landowners in Maine, where forests have been heavily harvested and much land has been converted to non-forest use. Data on these landowners and their land were obtained from primary and secondary sources, satellite change detection analysis, and structured interviews. We found that there are several different landowner groups making different harvesting decisions in response to different incentives. In northern Maine, deforestation occurred at a rapid rate in the 1970s–1990s due to the activities of paper companies, which were harvesting heavily in the aftermath of a spruce budworm epidemic and which were doing liquidation harvesting preparatory to leaving Maine. In the southern area of the state, deforestation is due primarily to small landowners converting land for development and contractors doing “cut and run” forestry. The Maine case shows that even in a small area, there can be multiple causes for deforestation.     

Characterizing 23 Years (1972–95) of Stand Replacement Disturbance in Western Oregon Forests with Landsat Imagery

In western Oregon, forest ecosystem processes are greatly affected by patterns of stand replacement disturbance. A spatially explicit characterization of clear-cut logging and wildfire is a prerequisite to understanding the causes and consequences of disturbance in this region. We analyzed stand replacement disturbance over 4.6 million forested hectares of three major provinces in western Oregon between 1972 and 1995, contrasting the relative amounts of wildfire and harvest in each province and comparing harvest statistics among the dominant land ownership categories. Clear-cut harvest and wildfire occurred over 19.9% and 0.7% of the study area, respectively. The moist Coast Range Province (CRP) was dominated by private industrial (PI) ownerships and had the greatest concentration of cutting. The relatively dry Klamath Mountains Province (KMP) and the climatically moderate Western Cascades Province (WCP) were dominated by public landowners and had lower concentrations of cutting and larger amounts of wildfire than the CRP. Rates of harvest over time generally followed similar trends across landowners; it was lowest in the early 1970s, peaked in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and then decreased to near 1970s levels by the mid-1990s. PI landowners had harvest rates that were about two and one-half times as high as public owners throughout the study period. Public and private nonindustrial (PNI) owners tended to have relatively small cutting units that remained spatially dispersed throughout the study period, whereas the PI owners had larger individual cutting units that tended toward spatial aggregation over time. Comparing the managed disturbance regimes with historical wild disturbance regimes can help us to understand the relative impact of management regimes on ecosystems. Received 28 November 2000; accepted 24 September 2001.     

Effects of Natural and Human-Assisted Regeneration on Landscape Dynamics in a Korean Pine Forest in Northeast China

Improper forest harvesting can potentially degrade forest ecosystem functions and services. Human-assisted regeneration (e.g., planting) is often used to increase the rate of forest recovery and thereby reduce regeneration failure. Seed dispersal is a fundamental ecological process that can also influence spatio-temporal patterns of forest regeneration. In this study, we investigated the relative contribution of planting and seed dispersal on forest regeneration at landscape scales. Because such influences can be further complicated by timber harvest intensity and seed availability within and around harvested area, we also evaluated the effects of those factors on forest landscape dynamics. We used the forest landscape model LANDIS to simulate the dynamics of Korean pine-broadleaf mixed forests in Northeast China. We considered three factors: timber harvest intensity (3 levels), seed dispersal and whether or not planting was used. The results showed that planting was more important in maintaining the abundance of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), a climax keystone species in this region, under the high-intensity harvesting option during early succession. In contrast, seed dispersal was more important during late succession. Korean pine can be successfully regenerated through seed dispersal under low and medium harvest intensities. Our results also indicated that effective natural regeneration will require protecting seed-production trees (seed rain). This study results provide a basis for more effectively managing Chinese temperate forests and possibly other similar ecosystems.     

Linkage of MIKE SHE to Wetland-DNDC for carbon budgeting and anaerobic biogeochemistry simulation

This study reports the linkage between MIKE SHE and Wetland-DNDC for carbon dynamics and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions simulation in forested wetland.Wetland-DNDC was modified by parameterizing management measures, refining anaerobic biogeochemical processes, and was linked to the hydrological model – MIKE SHE. As a preliminary application, we simulated the effect of water table position and forest management practices on GHGs emissions and carbon dynamics to test the capabilities of the models for simulating seasonal and long-term carbon budget. Simulation results show that water table changes had a remarkable effect on GHGs fluxes. Anaerobic conditions in forested wetland soils reduce organic matter decomposition and stimulate CH₄ production. Decrease in the water table from the wetland surface decreases methane flux, while CO₂ emission was lower with a rise in the water table. When there is a drop in water availability, wetlands can become a net source of atmospheric CO₂ as photosynthesis is decreased and respiration loss enhanced. Forest management activities i.e. harvest, fertilization and reforestation practices were parameterized in the model. We predicted carbon fluxes and stores on a pine forest under different forest management scenarios during 160 years. Results show that average long-term carbon storage in ecosystem pools increased with increasing rotation length; Soil carbon showed only minor, long-term responses to harvesting events. In contrast, carbon sequestered in tree biomass and litter fluctuated widely, in concert with the harvest cycle. Application of nitrogen fertilizer increased average carbon storage in all ecosystem pools and wood products. We presented the linkage of MIKE SHE and Wetland-DNDC as a way to use of simulation modeling tools for assessing GHGs mitigation strategies, carbon budgeting and forest management.     

Tree Species Composition and Harvest Intensity Affect Herbivore Density and Leaf Damage on Beech,Fagus sylvatica,in Different Landscape Contexts

Most forests are exposed to anthropogenic management activities that affect tree species composition and natural ecosystem processes. Changes in ecosystem processes such as herbivory depend on management intensity, and on regional environmental conditions and species pools. Whereas influences of specific forest management measures have already been addressed for different herbivore taxa on a local scale, studies considering effects of different aspects of forest management across different regions are rare. We assessed the influence of tree species composition and intensity of harvesting activities on arthropod herbivores and herbivore-related damage to beech trees, Fagus sylvatica, in 48 forest plots in three regions of Germany. We found that herbivore abundance and damage to beech trees differed between regions and that – despite the regional differences - density of tree-associated arthropod taxa and herbivore damage were consistently affected by tree species composition and harvest intensity. Specifically, overall herbivore damage to beech trees increased with increasing dominance of beech trees – suggesting the action of associational resistance processes – and decreased with harvest intensity. The density of leaf chewers and mines was positively related to leaf damage, and several arthropod groups responded to beech dominance and harvest intensity. The distribution of damage patterns was consistent with a vertical shift of herbivores to higher crown layers during the season and with higher beech dominance. By linking quantitative data on arthropod herbivore abundance and herbivory with tree species composition and harvesting activity in a wide variety of beech forests, our study helps to better understand the influence of forest management on interactions between a naturally dominant deciduous forest tree and arthropod herbivores.     

Predicting Pasture and Forest Landowner Intention to Create Early Successional Habitat

As human land uses expand across the landscape, the management practices of private landowners are an essential part of effective conservation. Early successional habitats (ESH) and the species that depend on them are a priority in the eastern United States, and efforts to create ESH on private lands has primarily focused on forest landowners and timber harvests. Private pasture lands in a forested landscape present an additional opportunity to create and maintain ESH, yet our understanding of landowner values and attitudes about management strategies in pastures is lacking. To address this, we surveyed private landowners in 5 Virginia counties who own ≥10.1 ha at >610 m elevation (n = 503). Our primary objective was to understand how a variety of factors such as landowner values, past experience with habitat management, and perceived barriers to carrying out habitat management are associated with private landowner intention to carry out 7 ESH management strategies (i.e., reduced mowing, reduced grazing, timber harvests within forest, timber harvests at a field-forest border, prescribed fire, use of machinery, and use of herbicides to control invasive species) for the benefit of wildlife in the next 5 years. We used boosted regression trees to determine which factors best predicted the intention to carry out each management strategy. We were able to predict accuracy >75% of the time for landowner intention to engage in open pasture and timber management strategies. Landowner values were not consistent across the different management strategies; landowners likely to reduce mowing or grazing valued ecological aspects of their land (e.g., pollinator habitat, water quality), whereas landowners likely to harvest timber valued hunting and revenue. Past experience with wildlife management was the strongest predictor of likelihood to reduce mowing and grazing. Our results suggest that expanding outreach efforts to include pasture management options would engage a broader set of landowners in creating ESH, especially if such efforts highlighted the benefits to pollinator species, water quality, and enhanced opportunities for hunting and other types of recreation. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Mineral soil carbon pool responses to forest clearing in Northeastern hardwood forests

Harvesting forests introduces substantial changes to the ecosystem, including physical and chemical alterations to the soil. In the Northeastern United States, soils account for at least 50% of total ecosystem C storage, with mineral soils comprising the majority of that storage. However, mineral soils are sometimes omitted from whole‐system C accounting models due to variability, lack of data, and sample collection challenges. This study aimed to provide a better understanding of how forest harvest affects mineral soil C pools over the century following disturbance. We hypothesized that mineral soil C pools would be lower in forests that had been harvested in the last one hundred years vs. forests that were >100 years old. We collected mineral soil cores (to 60 cm depth) from 20 forest stands across the Northeastern United States, representing seven geographic areas and a range of times since last harvest. We compared recently harvested forests to >100‐year‐old forests and used an information theoretic approach to model C pool dynamics over time after disturbance. We found no significant differences between soil C pools in >100‐year‐old and harvested forests. However, we found a significant negative relationship between time since forest harvest and the size of mineral soil C pools, which suggested a gradual decline in C pools across the region after harvesting. We found a positive trend between C : N ratio and % SOM in harvested forests, but in >100‐year‐old forests a weak negative trend was found. Our study suggests that forest harvest does cause biogeochemical changes in mineral soil, but that a small change in a C pool may be difficult to detect when comparing large, variable C pools. Our results are consistent with previous studies that found that soil C pools have a gradual and slow response to disturbance, which may last for several decades following harvest.     

The Dynamics of Latifundia Formation

Land tenure inequity is a major social problem in developing nations worldwide. In societies, where land is a commodity, inequities in land tenure are associated with gaps in income distribution, poverty and biodiversity loss. A common pattern of land tenure inequities through the history of civilization has been the formation of latifundia [Zhuāngyuán in chinese], i.e., a pattern where land ownership is concentrated by a small fraction of the whole population. Here, we use simple Markov chain models to study the dynamics of latifundia formation in a heterogeneous landscape where land can transition between forest, agriculture and recovering land. We systematically study the likelihood of latifundia formation under the assumption of pre-capitalist trade, where trade is based on the average utility of land parcels belonging to each individual landowner during a discrete time step. By restricting land trade to that under recovery, we found the likelihood of latifundia formation to increase with the size of the system, i.e., the amount of land and individuals in the society. We found that an increase of the transition rate for land use changes, i.e., how quickly land use changes, promotes more equitable patterns of land ownership. Disease introduction in the system, which reduced land profitability for infected individual landowners, promoted the formation of latifundia, with an increased likelihood for latifundia formation when there were heterogeneities in the susceptibility to infection. Finally, our model suggests that land ownership reforms need to guarantee an equitative distribution of land among individuals in a society to avoid the formation of latifundia.     

Paired comparisons of carbon exchange between undisturbed and regenerating stands in four managed forests in Europe

The effects of harvest on European forest net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and its photosynthetic and respiratory components (GPP (gross primary production) and TER (total ecosystem respiration)) were examined by comparing four pairs of mature/harvested sites in Europe via a combination of eddy covariance measurements and empirical modeling. Three of the comparisons represented high coniferous forestry (spruce in Britain, and pines in Finland and France), while a coppice‐with‐standard oak plantation was examined in Italy. While every comparison revealed that harvesting converted a mature forest carbon sink into a carbon source of similar magnitude, the mechanisms by which this occurred were very different according to species or management practice. In Britain, Finland, and France the annual sink (source) strength for mature (clear‐cut) stands was estimated at 496 (112), 138 (239), and 222 (225) g C m^?2, respectively, with 381 (427) g C m^?2 for the mature (coppiced) stand in Italy. In all three cases of high forestry in Britain, Finland, and France, clear‐cutting crippled the photosynthetic capacity of the ecosystem – with mature (clear‐cut) GPP of 1970 (988), 1010 (363), and 1600 (602) g C m^?2– and also reduced ecosystem respiration to a lesser degree – TER of 1385 (1100), 839 (603), and 1415 (878) g C m^?2, respectively. By contrast, harvesting of the coppice oak system provoked a burst in respiration – with mature (clear‐cut) TER estimated at 1160 (2220) gC m^?2– which endured for the 3 years sampled postharvest. The harvest disturbance also reduced GPP in the coppice system – with mature (clear‐cut) GPP of 1600 (1420) g C m^?2– but to a lesser extent than in the coniferous forests, and with near‐complete recovery within a few years. Understanding the effects of harvest on the carbon balance of European forest systems is a necessary step towards characterizing carbon exchange for timberlands on large scales.     

Bioenergy harvest,climate change,and forest carbon in the Oregon Coast Range

Forests provide important ecological, economic, and social services, and recent interest has emerged in the potential for using residue from timber harvest as a source of renewable woody bioenergy. The long‐term consequences of such intensive harvest are unclear, particularly as forests face novel climatic conditions over the next century. We used a simulation model to project the long‐term effects of management and climate change on above‐ and belowground forest carbon storage in a watershed in northwestern Oregon. The multi‐ownership watershed has a diverse range of current management practices, including little‐to‐no harvesting on federal lands, short‐rotation clear‐cutting on industrial land, and a mix of practices on private nonindustrial land. We simulated multiple management scenarios, varying the rate and intensity of harvest, combined with projections of climate change. Our simulations project a wide range of total ecosystem carbon storage with varying harvest rate, ranging from a 45% increase to a 16% decrease in carbon compared to current levels. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy caused a 2–3% decrease in ecosystem carbon relative to conventional harvest practices. Soil carbon was relatively insensitive to harvest rotation and intensity, and accumulated slowly regardless of harvest regime. Climate change reduced carbon accumulation in soil and detrital pools due to increasing heterotrophic respiration, and had small but variable effects on aboveground live carbon and total ecosystem carbon. Overall, we conclude that current levels of ecosystem carbon storage are maintained in part due to substantial portions of the landscape (federal and some private lands) remaining unharvested or lightly managed. Increasing the intensity of harvest for bioenergy on currently harvested land, however, led to a relatively small reduction in the ability of forests to store carbon. Climate change is unlikely to substantially alter carbon storage in these forests, absent shifts in disturbance regimes.     

Carbon debt and carbon sequestration parity in forest bioenergy production

The capacity for forests to aid in climate change mitigation efforts is substantial but will ultimately depend on their management. If forests remain unharvested, they can further mitigate the increases in atmospheric CO₂ that result from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. Alternatively, they can be harvested for bioenergy production and serve as a substitute for fossil fuels, though such a practice could reduce terrestrial C storage and thereby increase atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the near‐term. Here, we used an ecosystem simulation model to ascertain the effectiveness of using forest bioenergy as a substitute for fossil fuels, drawing from a broad range of land‐use histories, harvesting regimes, ecosystem characteristics, and bioenergy conversion efficiencies. Results demonstrate that the times required for bioenergy substitutions to repay the C Debt incurred from biomass harvest are usually much shorter (< 100 years) than the time required for bioenergy production to substitute the amount of C that would be stored if the forest were left unharvested entirely, a point we refer to as C Sequestration Parity. The effectiveness of substituting woody bioenergy for fossil fuels is highly dependent on the factors that determine bioenergy conversion efficiency, such as the C emissions released during the harvest, transport, and firing of woody biomass. Consideration of the frequency and intensity of biomass harvests should also be given; performing total harvests (clear‐cutting) at high‐frequency may produce more bioenergy than less intensive harvesting regimes but may decrease C storage and thereby prolong the time required to achieve C Sequestration Parity.     

兴安落叶松老头林对大兴安岭森林景观变化的影响研究

采用空间直观景观模型LANDIS ,以大兴安岭呼中林业局为研究区 ,研究对老头林进行采伐和不进行采伐预案下的森林景观变化动态。结果表明 ,在对老头林不进行采伐预案下 ,各物种的过熟林分布面积要高于进行采伐预案下的分布面积。老头林的存在能使森林景观组分和格局具有更高的稳定性 ,对采伐等干扰具有更大的抗性。因此 ,保护老头林对于大兴安岭森林的可持续发展具有重要的生态学意义。     

Modeling Harvest Intensity of Sooty Shearwater Chicks by Rakiura Māori in New Zealand

Abstract: Cultural evidence suggests that sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) chicks have been harvested by Rakiura Māori on islands in southern New Zealand since prehistoric times. Concerns exist that modern harvests may be impacting sooty shearwater abundance. We modeled human-related and ecological determinants of harvest (total no. of individuals harvested) of sooty shearwater chicks on 11 islands and examined the relationship between shearwater abundance and harvesting rates (chicks/hr) and harvester behavior throughout the harvesting season. Models best explaining variation in harvest between harvesting areas (manu), for both the early and late parts of the harvesting season, included harvester-days (included in all models with change in deviance information criteria [ΔDIC], ΔDIC < 8.36 and ΔDIC < 11.5, for the early and late periods, respectively). Other harvest determinants included shearwater density, size of the manu, and number of people helping harvesters (all included in the top 5 models within ΔDIC = 2.25 for the late period). Areas harvested by several families under a common-property harvesting system had higher harvest intensity for their size (24% points higher, 95% credible interval 11–36%) than those managed as an exclusive resource for one family. The slowest harvesters spent more time harvesting but on average only harvested 36% (95% credible interval 15–65%) and 34% (95% credible interval 12–63%) of the harvest taken by the fastest harvesters during the early and late periods, respectively. Our results highlight the possibility of elevated harvest intensity as the population of harvesters increases. However, our models suggested that a corresponding reduction in harvesting rate at low prey densities during the most productive period could potentially regulate harvest intensity. Future research will integrate these results into prospective shearwater demographic models to assess the utility of a range of harvesting strategies in ensuring harvest sustainability.     

Simulating the effects of harvest and biofuel production on the forest system carbon balance of the Midwest,USA

Forests of the Midwestern United States are an important source of fiber for the wood and paper products industries. Scientists, land managers, and policy makers are interested in using woody biomass and/or harvest residue for biofuel feedstocks. However, the effects of increased biomass removal for biofuel production on forest production and forest system carbon balance remain uncertain. We modeled the carbon (C) cycle of the forest system by dividing it into two distinct components: (1) biological (net ecosystem production, net primary production, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, vegetation, and soil C content) and (2) industrial (harvest operations and transportation, production, use, and disposal of major wood products including biofuel and associated C emissions). We modeled available woody biomass feedstock and whole‐system carbon balance of 220 000 km² of temperate forests in the Upper Midwest, USA by coupling an ecosystem process model to a collection of greenhouse gas life‐cycle inventory models and simulating seven forest harvest scenarios in the biological ecosystem and three biofuel production scenarios in the industrial system for 50 years. The forest system was a carbon sink (118 g C m^?2 yr^?1) under current management practices and forest product production rates. However, the system became a C source when harvest area was doubled and biofuel production replaced traditional forest products. Total carbon stores in the vegetation and soil increased by 5–10% under low‐intensity management scenarios and current management, but decreased up to 3% under high‐intensity harvest regimes. Increasing harvest residue removal during harvest had more modest effects on forest system C balance and total biomass removal than increasing the rate of clear‐cut harvests or area harvested. Net forest system C balance was significantly, and negatively correlated (R² = 0.67) with biomass harvested, illustrating the trade‐offs between increased C uptake by forests and utilization of woody biomass for biofuel feedstock.